Sampling Design, Sample Size, and Why They Are Important

Prof. Bhisma Murti, dr, MPH, MSc, PhD Masters Program in Public Health, Postgraduate Programs, Universitas Sebelas Maret

Types of Population
Target population (populasi sasaran) is the population a researcher wants to make inference about Source population (accessible population, populasi sumber, populasi terjangkau) is a subset of the target population that is accessible to the researcher, from which the samples are drawn. Sample (sampel) is a group of subjects chosen from the source population for study to represent the target population External population (populasi eksternal) is the population larger than the target population that the researcher may still want to generalize results
Target population

External population

Internal Validity

Source population
External Validity

Sampling

Statistical inference

Sample

Internal Validity and External Validity

Internal validity (validitas internal) refers to the extent to which the sample estimate reflects the true value of the association/ effect under study in the target population External validity (validitas Validity eksternal) refers to the extent to which the sample estimate is generalizable to the (larger) external population. The internal validity is a prerequisite for the external validity
Internal Target population

External population

Source population

Sampling

Statistical inference

External Validity

Sample

What is Sampling and Why

Sampling (pemilihan sampel) is the selection of a subset of individuals from within a population to estimate characteristics of the whole population, e.g.
Prevalence of tuberculosis
The relationship between smoking and the risk of stroke

Researchers rarely study the entire population because the cost of a census is too high.

Properties of a Good Research (Karakteristik Penelitian yang Baik)

A good research is one that makes a valid, precise, and consistent estimate of characteristics or difference/ association/ effect of variables under study in the population

Validity

The validity of a study is inversely related to the degree of systematic error.

The precision and consistency of an estimate are inversely related to the degree of random error

Validity

Systematic Error
A systematic error (kesalahan sistematis) or bias occurs when there is a deviation between the true value (in the target population) and the observed value (in the study sample) A systematic error results from an error in the selection of sample (selection bias), faulty measurement of variables (information bias), and/ or mixed effect by a third variable (confounding factor)

Random Error
Random error (kesalahan random) occurs due to random variation in sampling and/ or measurement of variables Random error is always present in a measurement. It is caused by inherently unpredictable fluctuations in measuring the variables under study. The distribution of random errors follows a Gaussian-shape "bell" curve. They are scattered about the true value, and tend to have null value when a measurement is repeated several times with the same instrument. Therefore increasing sample size can reduce random error.

Systematic Error
Per Cent

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 5

The observed values of the characteristics in the sample

The true values of the characteristics in the target population

10 15 20 Size of induration, mm

25

30

Random Error
Per Cent

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 5 10

The true values of the characteristics in the target population The observed values of the characteristics in the sample

15 20 25 Size of induration, mm

30

35

 Incorrect selection of a sample leads to bias estimate of a study

Why is Sampling Design Important? (Mengapa Memilih Sampel Penting?)

Analysis of data from a sample that is biased or unrepresentative to population will result in wrong conclusion about the characteristics of the population

Why is Sample Size Important? (Mengapa Ukuran Sampel Penting?)

Choosing a sample size that is too small may not give a statistically significant conclusion nor precise estimate about difference/ relationship/ effect of the variables under study

Valid,

Valid,

Too large a sample size Not valid, is wasteful and sometimes impossible to complete.

Precise

Not valid,

Sample Size, Systematic Error, and Random Error

The larger sample size, the smaller random error But sample size does not affect systematic error Larger sample size does not reduce systematic error Systematic error is more serious than random error, as it cannot be corrected by increasing sample size

Systematic error, random error

Random error
Systematic error

Sample size

Sample Size and Random Error (Sampling Error, Margin of Error)

Larger sample size reduces random variation, therefore increases precision

Sampling Design (Desain Pemilihan Sampel)

Random sampling:
Stratified random sampling

Simple random sampling

Cluster random sampling

Non-random sampling:
A. Convenient sampling B.

Purposive (judgmental ) sampling:

Fixed disease sampling Fixed exposure sampling etc.

Random sampling is a sampling method in which all member of a population (universe) have a known and independent chance of being selected. Simple random sampling is a sampling method in which all member of a population have an equal chance of being selected.

Types of Random Sampling (Jenis Pemilihan Sampel Random)

Stratified random sampling selects independent samples at random from subpopulations, groups or strata within the population.

Cluster (random) sampling selects the sample units at random in groups (called cluster, eg. neighborhood).

Choose groups (cluster) at random

Study all members of the groups selected

Types of Non-Random Sampling (Jenis Pemilihan Sampel NonRandom)

Purposive sampling uses expert judgment to select a sample that adequately represents the target population on factors that might influence the population: e.g. socio-economic status, intelligence, access to education, environmental factors, etc. Convenience sampling is a nonprobability sampling technique where subjects are selected because of their convenient accessibility and proximity to the researcher. This sampling design is poor, it very unlikely gives a representative sample

Fixed Exposure Sampling and Fixed Disease Sampling

Fixed exposure sampling selects a fixed number of subjects from each exposure category (exposed and non-exposed groups). This design is primary used in a cohort study, but can also be used in a cross-sectional study Fixed disease sampling select a fixed number of subjects from each disease category (case and control groups). This design is primary used in a case control study, but can also be used in a cross-sectional study. Since cases are rare, it will be efficient to include all available cases for the study, while subjects in the control group can be selected at random from the available nondiaseased population

 Formula for Testing/ Estimating One Population:

1. 2. 3. Mean Proportion Correlation coefficient

Sample Size Formulas (Rumus Ukuran Sampel)

Formula for Testing/ Estimating Two Populations:

1.
2.

Difference in Two (or More) Population Means

Difference in Two (or More) Population Proportion

Examples of Sample Size Formula (Contoh Rumus Ukuran Sampel)

Sample size for a study that tests proportion difference between two (or more) populations:

Z n

1/2

2 P 1 P Z1 P1 1 P1 P2 1 P2

Sample size for a study that tests mean difference between two (or more) populations: 2 2 2 Z1/2 Z1

P P
1 2

1 2 2

Determinants of a Sample Size Estimation (Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ukuran Sampel)

Minimum sample size calculated by any formula is only a statistical estimate. It is dependent on the researchers choice of acceptable random error and on findings from previous studies. Time, cost, and ethics should also be considered. The researchers choice of acceptable random error:
1. 2. Tipe I error (). Arbritary, but conventional choice: = 0.05 Type 2 Error () or statistical power (1- ). Arbritary, but conventional choice: = 0.20 Degree of precision or margin of error (e.g. +/- 5%) Difference in population means and their variances Difference in population proportions Correlation coeficient from one population

3.

Findings from previous or preliminary studies:

1. 2. 3.

Using Statistical Program to Calculate Minimum Sample Size (Menggunakan Program Statistik untuk Menghitung Ukuran Sampel)

Use of OpenEpi to calculate sample size

Final Words: Important Reminder (Kesimpulan: Penting untuk Diingat)

The sample should be selected by correct (unbiased) sampling design so that it accurately represents the population. Incorrect sampling design will cause systematic error, which leads to an estimate of the characteristics or the association/ effect of variables in the population that is not valid. The sample size should be large enough to achieve statistically significant results (i.e. consistency) and precise estimate. Small sample size will increase random error, therefore will cause nonstatistically significant and imprecise results.