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THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CRISIS: REGIONAL IMPACTS, RESPONSES AND SOLUTIONS.

(REVIEW)

OLEH: RIZKY ADRIANSYAH (2010-22-015)

HUBUNGAN INTERNASIONAL FAKULTAS ILMU SOSIAL DAN POLITIK UNIVERSITAS PROF. DR. MOESTOPO (BERAGAMA)

Krisis global yang bermula pada Oktober 2008 lalu, hingga saat ini sebenarnya bukan merupakan krisis yang pertama terjadi di dunia Internasional. Pada masa-masa sebelumnya banyak juga terjadi krisis hebat yang terjadi di dunia Internasional. Saya tidak akan menguraikannya satu persatu, namun akan fokus pada krisis global pada tahun 2008 silam. Namun saya-pun tidak akan menjelaskan penyebab krisis ini terjadi, karena ini sudah menjadi sorotan utama dan menjadi pembahasan umum masyarakat. Namun saya akan me-review dampak dari krisis ini berdasarkan laporan UNDP (The Global Financial Crisis and the Asia-Pacific Region, 2009) terhadap kawasan Asia Pasifik. Dampak krisis global 2008 dapat dibagi dalam beberapa fokus atau sektor, yaitu: External Sector and Short-Term Capital Flows. Equity and Property Markets. Banking Sector. Trade and Growth. FDI (Foreign Direct Investment). Remittances. Livelihoods and vulnerable groups.

External Sector and Short-Term Capital Flows


Dampak pada sektor eksternal negara-negara di kawasan Asia Pasifik ini adalah dalam bidang ekonomi makro. Sebelum meledaknya krisis global ini, Korea, Indonesia, Singapura, Filipina, dan Malayasia memiliki saham asing yang nilai portofolio investasinya melebihi cadangan devisa. Sedangkan para investor yang menyimpan dana itu terkena krisis global di Negara-negara maju.

Equity and Property Markets


Dampak krisis global ini-pun menyebabkan pasar ekuitas menurun drastic. Bahkan diukur dengan harga kredit, ini lebih parah dari puncak krisis pada tahun 1997 lalu. Hal ini menyebabkan kejatuhan pasar yang mana banyak mengambil keuntungan dari likuiditas global.

Banking Sector
Kemampuan kawasan untuk dapat keluar dari Krisis juga terhambat oleh sektor pinjaman bank. Setelah pendanaan oleh pihak swasta dari negara maju telah disita, Negara-negara Asia harus menunda penerbitan obligasi eksternal yang baru, pembayaraan dengan jatuh tempo yang pendek atau beralih pada pendanaan dari sektor domestik.

Trade and Growth


Dampak krisis global paling terlihat dalam sektor, karena pada dasarnya. Kawasan Asia Pasifik adalah wilayah yang berorientasi pada perdagangan. Memang pada krisis tahun 1997 silam, kawasan ini dapat bertahan dengan meningkatankan ekspor. Namun kali ini krisis ini menimpa Negara-negara maju yang

merupakan supply pasar dari kawasan Asia Pasifik ini, sehingga permintaan dari Negara-negara maju menurun terjal.

FDI (Foreign Direct Investment)


Dalam 1 dekade terakhir, pasca krisis moneter pada tahun 1997, Foreign Direct Investment meningkat secara drastic. FDI ini umumnya berlaku untuk jangka panjang, sehingga selama krisis harusnya menjadi sumber yang masuk secara stabil dan menyuluruh. Namun pada krisis global ini kontribusi FDI justru menurun.

Remittances
Dari 4,1 miliar penduduk dalam kawasan Asia Pasifik. Wilayah ini memiliki 50 juta migran. Memang banyak negara di wilayah ini yang mengalami lonjakan migrasi tenaga kerja di akhir tahun, dengan seiring bertambahnya remitansi. Antara 2000 dan 2007 pengiriman uang lebih dari dua kali lipat. Dan selama masa krisis, remitansi di Asia dan Pasifik umumnya lebih stabil daripada modal lainnya.

Livelihoods and vulnerable groups


Setelah krisis terjadi, diperkirakan pada tahun 2009 di wilayah Asia dan Pasifik meningkat sebanyak 23 Juta pekerja. Dampak terbesar dirasakan pada sektor manufaktur ekspor, seperti contohnya pakaian, elektronik, dan sektor otomotif. Krisis juga melanda pekerja di bidang kontruksi, pariwisata, jasa keuangan dan real estate.

Country Specific Responses

Pada saat suatu Negara terkena krisis pada sektor ekonomi, biasanya garis pertahanan pertama untuk menghindari penurunan ekonomi adalah kebijakan moneter. Pada dasarnya kebijakan moneter adalah proses mengatur persediaan uang sebuah Negara untuk mencapai tujuan tertentu, seperti menahan inflasi, atau upaya untuk mencapai tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi secara berkelanjutan dengan tetap mempertahankan kestabilan harga. Dengan tujuan untuk memperbaiki neraca perdagangan kerja masyarakat yaitu dengan jlan meningkatkan ekspor dan mengurangi impor dari luar negeri yang masuk kedalam negeri atau sebaliknya. Krisis global 2008 jauh lebih parah dari perkiraan semula dan suasana ketidak pastiannya sangat tinggi. Kepercayaan masyarakat dunia terhadap perekonomian menurun tajam. Akibatnya, gambaran ekonomi dunia terlihat makin suram dari hari ke hari walaupun semua bank sentral sudah menurunkan suku bunga sampai tingkat yang terendah. Tingkat bunga yang sedemikian rendahnya itu justru menyebabkan ruang untuk melakukan kebijakan moneter menjadi terbatas, sehingga pilihan yang tersedia hanya pada kebijakan fiscal. Kebijakan fiskal akan mempengaruhi perekonomian melalui penerimaan negara dan

pengeluaran negara. Disamping pengaruh dari selisih antara penerimaan dan pengeluaran (defisit atau surplus), perekonomian juga dipengaruhi oleh jenis sumber penerimaan negara dan bentuk kegiatan yang dibiayai pengeluaran Negara.

Regional Responses
Para menteri keuangan dari anggota ASEAN+3 yaitu Jepang, China, dan Korea sepakat untuk mempercepat implementasi cadangan devisa multilateral, sebagai suatu langkah awal. Tujuannya adalah untuk mengkonversi dana bilateral menjadi dana multilateral yang lebih besar. Salah satu isu utama adalah menyangkut persyaratan yang terkait dengan pinjaman dana. Ini akan menuntut proses penguatan monitoring dan pengawasan dari ASEAN, namun tetap saja ada kekhawatiran-khawatiran lainnya. Pemerintah Jepang juga telah mengumumkan bahwa mereka akan sudah mempersiapkan dana sebesar $1-billion melalui Bank of Japan untuk suatu kolaborasi kerjasama Internasional kolaborasi dengan Asian Development Bank. Ini akan membantu meminjamkan lembaga keuangan untuk mengembangkan negara dan untuk membantu perusahaan mendapatkan akses yang banyak dibutuhkan untuk pembiayaan perdagangan. Pada Sidang Komisi ke-65, yang diselenggarakan pada tanggal 23-29 April 2009, menghasilkan resolusi E/ESCAP/65/L.7. Komisi mendesak pelaksanaan inisiatif dan kerjasama regional. (ESCAP, 2009).

The way forward


Economic Outlook.
Pertumbuhan ekonomi di kawasan Asia-Pasifik melambat menjadi 5,5 persen pada Januari-Juni, jauh di atas rata-rata pertumbuhan global, tetapi terendah untuk kawasan ini sejak krisis keuangan tahun 2008. Tetapi Asia tidak terlalu jatuh, karena Asia terdiri atas negara-negara berkembang dengan pertumbuhan lebih tinggi dari negara-negara lain dan negara-negara Asia berdagang dengan sesama negara Asia sehingga dapat mempertahankan mesin pertumbuhan.

Policy Recommendation.
Upaya untuk mencegah krisis datang lagi dikemudian hari, maka diperlukan suatu rekomendasi kebijakan mengenai hal tersebut, dan perumusan rekomendasi kebijakan tersebut diperlukan banyak pertimbangan di dalam level regional. ASEAN+3 adalah suatu bentuk untuk membendung isu isu seperti itu. ASEAN+3 memiliki misi yaitu meningkatkan daya saing ASEAN sebagai basis produksi dalam pasar dunia melalui penghapusan bea dan halangan non-bea dalam ASEAN. Juga menarik investasi asing langsung ke ASEAN dan masih banyak lagi..

Bahan pembanding

The global financial crisis: Asia Pacific not immune


Analyst Insight by Media Eghbal. The global financial crisis that began in mid-2007 and worsened in October 2008 resulted in major falls in the US stock market. Asia Pacific markets are closely tied to those of the USA, particularly those of the more industrialised countries, and therefore suffered similar losses. However, since Asia's financial systems are relatively resilient, the greater effect will be felt on the real economy, particularly since the negative impact of the crisis will exacerbate existing trends of worsening fiscal deficits and currency weakness. Economic growth will slow across the region, although India and China will retain relatively higher rates of growth. Key points

The global financial crisis originated in the US sub-prime mortgage sector in 2007 owing to concerns about the high proportion of bad mortgage loans; A rapid credit contraction and negative investor sentiment led to a major downturn in the Dow Jones and Nasdaq beginning in mid-2007; A knock-on global effect led to swift declines in Asia Pacific bourses, such as in Hong Kong, Singapore, India and Pakistan; Negative global investor sentiment will lead to a decline in foreign direct investment to the region, slowing economic growth; In addition, slowing demand in the USA (a major export destination) as well as the EU will reduce export revenues in export-facing countries across the region; While slowing global commodity prices will offer some inflationary relief, it will damage revenues for commodity-reliant countries such as Bangladesh and Pakistan; Overall economic growth in Asia Pacific will slow in line with the global economic slowdown, although growth in leading economies such as India and China will remain strong by regional standards. The idea that emerging economies had decoupled sufficiently from developed economies has proven not to be the case; Of the Asian economies, Japan will be the worst affected, owing to the fact that its export-oriented economy has been badly hit by the global slowdown, as well as historical problems with economic growth and deflation; The export-orientated economies of Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea will also be badly affected, all expecting growth of only 2.0% in 2009.

Background Asia Pacific's financial systems experienced a severe shock during the 1997 financial crisis, which originated in Thailand and spread across the region, resulting in slumping economic growth and a withdrawal of foreign direct investment. Following this, the region made strenuous efforts to improve financial oversight and reduce national debt to avoid a recurrence of the fiscal crisis. The region is therefore better placed to withstand the 2007-2008 global financial crisis, although it will still experience an economic slowdown in line with the global downturn. Hopes that financial reform had allowed the region to successfully decouple from the tribulations of Western economies have proven unfounded.

Asia Pacific stock market losses Asian financial markets traditionally track those of the USA:

Many of the firms listed on Asia Pacific bourses are linked to industry, both heavy manufacturing and electronics. These are largely dependent on US demand. Bourses particularly weighted this way are those of Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia and India; Japan's Nikkei stock index suffered the most, losing 51.5% of its value between July 2007 and December 2008; Such losses were closely followed by Singapore (49.9%), China (47.4%) Malaysia (39.3%) and India (37.6%) over the same period India's stock index losses were exacerbated by sharp falls following the Mumbai terrorist attacks in November 2008; Japan's equity loss was great because it closely tracks the US Nasdaq (industrial index) and reflected investor concerns about lower demand from the USA. Japan officially entered recession in the third quarter 2008; China's stock exchange lost 47.4% of its value over the period owing to concerns regarding slowing export demand and lower growth in the region's largest economy; As in other regions, concerns over debt in the banking sector are reducing financial systems' willingness to extend credit. This is particularly important for Asia Pacific, where credit has proven a key engine of growth.

Equity losses in the region were not primarily concerned with negative domestic economic fundamentals but with the impact of lower US economic and demand. Export decline Asia Pacific will suffer heavily in terms of lower demand for its exports, particularly of manufactured and electronic goods:

In 2007 Asia Pacific exported 15.2% of exports or US$614 billion to the USA; A slowing economy in the USA is reducing demand for imports. US imports fell by 5.6% month-onmonth in October 2008 to US$212 billion; In particular, US industrial machinery imports fell by US$8.1 billion month-on-month in October 2008. This will have a negative impact on industrial producing countries in Asia Pacific; Additionally, Asia's agricultural exporters are suffering from a decline in commodity prices following a bumper harvest. Bangladesh, India and China are major rice exporters. The global rice price was US$14.4 per 2,000 cwt (hundred weight or 100 lb of rice) in December 2008, down from a peak of US$24.2 per 2,000 cwt in May 2008; Although falling prices have a beneficial effect on reducing inflation, the loss of export revenues will reduce profits for governments (via taxes and state exports) and businesses; The main food importers benefiting from reduced food import costs are Bangladesh (one of the poorest countries in the region), the Philippines, Myanmar, Cambodia and Sri Lanka. This should help to support consumer incomes, especially for the poorer sectors of society in extreme poverty.

The beneficial effects of slowing inflation will be cancelled out by the negative effect of lower demand for exports, which will weigh on business profits and potential wage increases. Financial effects Lower export revenues will have negative implications for government budgets:

Lower government revenues will reduce available funding for social spending, reducing potential income support for consumers;

It will exacerbate current account deficits that have been widening throughout 2008 owing to slowing exports and high commodity import prices; Pakistan's current account deficit is forecast to almost double in 2008 to -8.7% of GDP from -4.8% of GDP in 2007 as ongoing political concerns encourage capital outflows and inflation boosts import demand; Likewise, Vietnam's current account deficit will widen to -11.7% of GDP in 2008 from -9.8% of GDP in 2007 as prices of key export commodities such as rice, coffee and rubber fall; This is despite the beneficial effects of falling global oil prices, with oil having fallen from US$147 per barrel in July 2008 to US$44.9 per barrel in December 2008; As well as lower export revenues and remittances, the region will also suffer from lower foreign direct investment inflows as global investors have less funding and willingness to invest in risky emerging markets. China received FDI inflows of US$59.9 billion in 2007, while Japan received US$22.2 billion.

Consumer confidence A worsening economic environment is damaging consumer confidence:

Concerns regarding slowing export demand, especially from the USA, and the prospect of an economic downturn is reducing consumer willingness to spend; Retail sales in China (a proxy for consumer confidence) grew by 20.8% year-on-year in November 2008. Although still high, this was the slowest growth for nine months; Likewise, car sales in India (another proxy) fell by 19.4% year-on-year in November 2008 as economic concerns made consumers less likely to make major budgetary outlays; Rising unemployment as a result of the slowdown is also affecting consumer confidence. In China, a survey by the Ministry of Human Resource and Social Security in October 2008, found that demand for workers had dropped 5.5% year-on-year; Falling remittances from Asian nationals living in other regions will also curb consumer spending growth. In November 2008 the World Bank estimated that remittance flows to South Asia would grow 16.0% year-on-year in 2008 to US$51 billion, while flows to East Asia and the Pacific would grow 7.0% to US$62 billion. However, this is forecast to slow sharply in 2009; The World Bank noted that strong remittance growth to South Asia was largely owing to funds from nationals working in the oil-producing Gulf and remittances are therefore likely to drop sharply in 2009 as lower oil prices reduce profits in the Gulf.

Consumer confidence will be most dented in poorer countries such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, which are heavily dependent on remittances, with remittance inflows totalling 9.5% of Bangladesh's GDP in 2007. Slower remittance growth will result in lower domestic demand as consumer spending power declines. Regional implications All countries will be affected by the regional slowdown:

Japan will be the worst affected with the economy forecast to contract by -0.2% in 2009, its first recession in seven years. This reflects ongoing problems of low growth and deflation while the economic slowdown has hit its export-oriented economy hard; Singapore and Hong Kong will experience low growth of 2.0% annually in 2009. This is largely due to their large financial services sectors (with Hong Kong acting as a financial intermediary for investment in China) and export-facing industries, with the USA a significant export partner; South Korea's growth will also slow to 2.0% in 2009 from 4.1% in 2008 as global demand for industrial products declines; Some insulation will be provided by ongoing strong economic growth in India and China, which are forecast to grow by 6.3% and 8.5% respectively in 2009, from 7.8% and 9.7% in 2008.

Future scenarios The global economic downturn will affect Asia Pacific well into 2009:

The USA is forecast to enter recession in 2008-2009, with the economy contracting by -0.7% in 2009. The eurozone is forecast to contract by -0.5% in 2009 following growth of 1.2% in 2008; The prolonged slowdown in export demand will weigh on economic growth in Asia Pacific. The region is expected to grow by 6.0% in 2008 down from 7.6% in 2007, and then by 4.9% in 2009; Relatively high rates of growth in India and China will provide some compensation for lower export demand from the USA, stimulating domestic demand; Individual countries are introducing fiscal packages to provide economic stimulus. In December 2008 Japan announced a 23 trillion fiscal aid package, including tax breaks and assistance to struggling financial institutions; In November 2008 China announced a fiscal stimulus package, cutting taxes and funding infrastructure programmes to increase employment and income growth.

Asia Pacific's recent strong economic growth will slow in 2008-2009 as the combination of lower export demand, remittances and foreign direct investment weigh on prospects for job creation and wage growth. A recovery is expected by 2010 in line with a gradual global upturn.

Source : http://blog.euromonitor.com/2009/01/the-global-financial-crisis-asia-pacificnot-immune.html

Analisis
Krisis ekonomi yang terjadi di Amerika Serikat menghenyakan banyak orang. Banyak yang terkejut mengapa negara sebesar Amerika Serikat bisa mengalami krisis ekonomi atau moneter yang merontokan pasar saham dan keuangan di Amerika Serikat dan Bahkan di dunia. Dalam era globalisasi seperti sekarang, globalisasi juga memegang peranan penting dalam ketergantungan negara-negara berkembang terhadap negara maju karena sebenarnya ketergantungan adalah salah satu faktor kunci dari suatu dunia globalisasi. Maka darisini dapat saya tarik kesimpulan ketika suatu Negara maju mengalami kemerosotan ekonomi atau krisis, maka Negara berkembang yang bergantung padanya akan memiliki dampak-dampak di berbagai bidang. Seperti dalam krisis global yang berdampak hingga asia pacific ini, walaupun asia pacific tidak terlalu merasakan jatuh seperti mereka bukan berarti kawasan ini kebal dari krisis. Darisini perlu diadakannya respon-respon dari Negara-negara pada kawasan ini, untuk bekerja sama untuk tetap berada dalam comfort zone-nya masing. Untuk mencapainya maka diperlukan suatu integrasi yang mengawasi dan memonitor hubungan antara Negara-negara dalam kawasan ini. Maka perlu dibuat suatu kerjasama jangka panjang yang saling berimbang dan menguntungkan antara Negaranegara didalamnya, hingga ketergantungan dengan Negara maju (yang dalam keadaan krisis) tidak terlalu jauh.