A big insight.

OK, so note this means of calculating the conditional probability.

I think this basically amounts to writing e.g. "S,G", or "G2, G1". The description is unclear, but I believe that on EACH 1000, one is writing a different combination of silver (1 or 2), gold (1 or 2).

I see - that is the point.

Interesting statement.

I wonder if this is because of our evolved sense of probability. Hence, you know, it is a faculty that perhaps thrives, or is invoked, on occasions of relatively " quick" judgments.
In the example, each case retains the probability of 1/6.

So, the answer seems to be that, with conditional probability, we create a new universe, a new sample space. It seems basically to be a 'mathematical' or 'procedural' matter. I.e. the procedure we adopt, for working out conditional probability, dictates a process which, in this case, reduces the new sample space to 2. Asserting "there is at least one boy" simply doesn't, you know, invoke that particular procedure, but a different one. // From what is said in the following example, it seems that the difference arises because MORE INFORMATION is (subtly) conveyed in the case where we get to use the conditional probability.

The only ones that contain R1 (not all first, which makes me wonder a bit whether the description makes sense).

Note, by the way, that this is the right formula.

One can see roughly where this formula is coming from. You are basically trying to get the output to equal "n-1", so that the numerator equals the denominator, so that the ratio as a whole equals 1, so that the number is the same as the case for the 2-headed coin. A log in base 2 is the reciprocal of the exponent of a base 2. Etc.
I think this is supposed to be the " roughly equals" sign.

Have not attempted to follow the working.

Easy to check this. The 51's cancel, from numerator and denominator.

Find this slightly surprising and counter intuitive. Maybe I shouldn't.

Because, if you follow the formula for computing Q(k), you would calculate 365 - 1 + 1 (where the -1 is your value for 'k'). This gives you 365 ways. You then divide this by 365, to give 1. You then subtract this from 1 to give the probability (as opposed to the complement of the probability).

In the case where there are 366 people, Q is 0, and following the formula, this would make P = 1.

So, we do this long sum (or rather, this long PRODUCT) divided by 365^k.

I.e. as the end result.

Don't know where this formula comes from. But it does work. Take the case of 4 people, where there are 6 pairs.

So, not really at all sure...

Don't know what sequence he is referring to.

There are n-1 items that we can select that are " successes".

No real clue how this is equivalent.

This is the term to, so to speak, lop off the end of the factorial on the top.

stopped...

OK.... Note that that is what we did.