JORDAN SPIETH: LOOKING BEYOND THE 2014 MASTERS By V. Laxmanan, Sc. D.

Now, down to a Tweet! Jordan Spieth, Give it your best. The wins will follow. Do not be motivated by winning. Be motivated to excel. That is what the Gita the greatest self-help book of all times - teaches us.

Jordan Spieths rounds in the 2013-2014 season

85

Scores per round, S SSSPlayed, N

80 75 70 65 60 55 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Round Number Played, N

Figure 1: Jordan Speiths performance in all the golf rounds of the 2013-2014 season since the WGC-HSBC tournament on 11/03/13 (rounds N = 1 to N = 4). The raw data was obtained from the PGA Tour stats. The scores for WGC-Accenture rounds (N = 27 to N = 30) are not available. Tournaments where he did not make the cut are included. Thus, total rounds equal 48 and total score is 3399 (through the RBC Heritage) for an average per round of 70.81. Spieth should focus on reducing this average to the range to 65 to 68 and gain at least two strokes. Only 15 of the 48 rounds were in the 60s (between 63 to 69). See http://www.pgatour.com/content/pgatour/players/player.34046.jordanspieth.html/season for the raw data.
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10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

Frequency of score, F
F S 1 63

Figure 2: based on mathematical calculations, bell-shaped normal distribution curve is added.) The frequency (F) of the scores (S) shows a peak at 70 and 71, with 9 rounds each. The frequency of other scores is given in table below.

Score per round, S SSSPlayed, N Jordan Speiths scores converted to a frequency diagram . (A schematic, i.e., not

2 66

2 68

5 67

5 69

9 70

9 71

4 72

2 73

1 74

4 75

2 77

1 78

1 79

The mean of the 14 S-values a = 71.57 and the standard deviation = 4.58. A typical round for Spieth is 70 or 71 (peak value of frequency F) with a spread of plus or minus 4 to 5 strokes. Hence, as we see here, the rounds vary from a low of 66 to a high of 75 (or even 77), with the occasional 63 ( one round) or 78 or 79 (one round each). The peak needs to shift to a lower value, like 68 or 69, and the spread, or the standard deviation, should also be reduced, for greater consistency of performance. Even if the spread is not reduced, a shifting of the peak to lower values will mean more PGA tour victories and also majors. See http://www.pgatour.com/content/pgatour/players/player.34046.jordanspieth.html/season for the raw data. Jordan Spieth must LITERALLY STOP LISTENING to all those who are just egging him on (with uncritical praise) and can find nothing wrong with him and must focus on improving these basics. Heres an example http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-normaldistribution.html (see distribution in the weight of bags of sugar).

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Table 1: Jordan Spieths Scorecard for four rounds at the 2014 Masters with a hypothetical BEST round
Hole 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Front nine Back nine Total Par 4 5 4 3 4 3 4 5 4 4 4 3 5 4 5 3 4 4 36 36 72 Round 1 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 4 4 3 4 5 5 3 4 4 35 36 71 Round 2 5 5 4 3 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 3 5 4 3 3 5 3 35 35 70 Round 3 4 5 3 4 4 2 4 5 4 4 5 3 5 3 4 3 4 4 35 35 70 Round 4 4 4 4 2 5 2 3 6 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 3 4 4 35 37 72 Hypothetical Best
4 4 3 2 3 2 3 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 4 3 29 31 60

Data Source: http://www.pga.com/masters/scoring/scorecard/34046 To live up to his promise (note, I did not say hype), Jordan Spieth must be able to produce the round shown in the last column here. He is talented. Now, all he has to do is to focus his energies (read the Gita verse). A record breaking 60 is what he could have produced. (Of course, we can do this for any golfer! Spieth is now the focus of the golf world.) Speith made an eagle on hole 15 in round 2, see http://www.galvestondailynews.com/news_ap/sports/golf/article_050873a673c5-5aff-ac90-b34b3f5d089d.html . He has birdied 7 of 9 holes on front nine but only 4 (with one eagle) on the back nine. See also http://www.scribd.com/doc/218982700/The-2014-Masters-GolfTournament-Jordan-Spieth-did-not-beat-Jordan-Spieth-in-the-final-round-andso-lost-the-Masters

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Gaussian probability, p

0.100 0.090 0.080 0.070 0.060 0.050 0.040 0.030 0.020 0.010 0.000 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

Score for round, S SSSPlayed, N

Figure 3: Theoretical Gaussian probability density distribution with a mean value a = 71.57 and a standard deviation = 4.578. The (a, ) values are those observed for Spieth in his 48 rounds in the current 2014 season.
The mathematical equation of the Gaussian (also called the normal) probability density distribution curve is y = k exp [ -(x a)2/22] where k = 1/(22)1/2 . The values of y, the probability density, can be calculated for each value x (which is taken here as the score S per round, varying from 63 to 79). The area under the curve, covered by the small (grey) strip centered between any two values of x gives the probability of occurrence of that event - in this case the probability of observing a certain score in a round of golf. For example, if we take the strip centered between 68.5 and 69.5, we get the probability of observing a score of 69 for the round and so on. (Here the rectangle extends slightly above the curve due to the limitations of graphics program I am using.) The curve is normalized so that the total area equals 1 (hence the 2 in the factor k, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaussian_function ), the probability of all events taken together. If the number of events is large, the Gaussian distribution becomes a good description of the actual observations (see http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/math/gaufcn.html ) By setting the y-value for a score of 63 as 1 (or for a score 70 as 9), we can get the distribution curve for frequency of scores as shown in Figures 4 and 5.

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Frequency of score, F

10 8 6 4 2 0 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

Score for round, S SSSPlayed, N

Figure 4: Matching of Spieths score per round with the theoretical Gaussian distribution with the actual observed mean value a = 71.57 and the standard deviation = 4.578. The (a, ) values are those observed for Spieth in his 48 rounds in the current 2014 season. The red squares here are the observed frequencies for each score. Probability density for S = 70 taken as frequency of 9.

Frequency of score, F

10 8 6 4 2 0 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

Score for round, S SSSPlayed, N

Figure 5: Matching of Spieths score per round with the theoretical Gaussian distribution with a mean value a = 71.57 and a standard deviation = 2.828, which is somewhat lower than the actual observed value of = 4.578. Probability density for S = 63 taken as frequency of 1. Page 5 of 6

THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PRECISION AND ACCURACY

Courtesy:http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-normal-distribution.html What is the difference between precision and accuracy? This is illustrated above. Hitting the bulls eye consistently is accuracy. Missing the bulls eye but always being closely clustered is precision.

For a golfer, raking up top 5s or top 10s consistently is precision. Winning is accuracy. One must hit the bulls eye. Unfortunately, it seems that top 5 and top 10 stats are being touted a little too much these days. The title of the article from which the following is extracted is Jordan Spieth did not win but he did not disappoint either. Unfortunately, this article was NOT about the runner-up finish at the 2014 Masters on April 13, 2014, but about an event earlier this season, the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and was written on January 6, 2014.
It is an old pattern, according to Spieth's long-time instructor, Cameron McCormick, the director of instruction at Brook Hollow Golf Club in Dallas. "Jordan's never really gotten that far off track," said McCormick, an Australian native. "One of the markers I look for is how good a player is, how stable his performances are over time. His entire junior career, he very rarely finished out of the top five or 10 in AJGA invitationals. To me that's a huge marker. He went to college and did the same thing." Same thing?????

http://www.golfdigest.com/blogs/the-loop/2014/01/spieth-doesnt-win-buthe-doesnt-disappoint-either.html
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