SECTION 18

EFFECTS OF THE ENVIRONMENT ON THE PROJECT

Environmental Assessment Certificate Application for the RichmondAirportVancouver Rapid Transit Project

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18.1

Effects of the Environment on the Project

Potential Effects of the Environment

The Canadian Environmental Assessment Act requires that the effects of the environment on the project, as well as any mitigation measures that are to be used to address these effects, be described. In this section, environmental conditions with the potential to adversely affect the RAV system, including extreme weather events, climate change, seismic activity, and flooding, are briefly described and the risk associated with these events is assessed. Measures to be incorporated into project design to address potential effects of the environment on the RAV Project are described.

18.1.1

Extreme Weather Events

Climate information recorded from 1971 to 2000 at three weather stations located along the RAV corridor (i.e., Vancouver Harbour, Vancouver City Hall, Vancouver International Airport) (Environment Canada (2004), was used to identify the nature and extent of extreme weather events that could conceivably occur in the project area. The type of climate information recorded by Environment Canada varies somewhat among these stations. For example, monthly mean temperatures, maximum and minimum daily temperatures, extreme daily temperatures and maximum hourly wind speeds are available for Vancouver Harbour and Vancouver International Airport while data for Vancouver City Hall is limited to information relating to precipitation. Information regarding maximum wind gusts is available only for the airport weather station. Table 18.1 summarizes historic extreme weather data of relevance to the assessment of environmental effects on the RAV Project. Note that mean daily temperature and rainfall data are included for the purposes of comparison.

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Table 18.1

Climate Normals and Extremes for Weather Stations in the RAV Corridor Environment Canada Weather Station Vancouver Vancouver Vancouver City International Harbour Hall Airport
Low: 4.8 C (Dec) High: 18.3 C (Aug) 32.7 C (May 1983) -15.6 C (Dec 1968)
o o o o

Climate Normal Data (1971 2000)

Temperature Mean Daily Temperature Extreme Maximum Temperature Extreme Minimum Temperature Precipitation Mean Daily Rainfall Extreme Daily Rainfall

NA NA NA

Low: 3.3 C (Jan) High: 17.6 C (Aug) 33.6 C (Aug 1960) -17.8 C (Jan 1950 & Dec 1968)
o o o

49.1 mm (July) to 219.5 mm (Nov) 134.6 mm (Jan 1968)

41.4 mm (July) to 183.3 mm (Dec) 94.0 mm (Jan 1935) 25.4 cm (Dec 1968) 18.0 cm (Feb 1986)

39.1 mm (Aug) to 178.5 mm (Nov) 89.4 mm (Dec 1972) 41.0 cm (Dec 1996) 61.0 cm (Jan 1971)

Extreme Daily Snowfall Extreme Snow Depth Wind Maximum Hourly Wind Speed Maximum Wind Gust

36.8 cm (Jan 1935) 17.0 cm (Dec 1980)

46 km/hr (April 1978) NA

N/A NA

89 km/hr (Feb 1960 & Nov 1961) 129 km/hr (Nov 1957)

Source: Environment Canada. 2004.

18.1.2

Climate Change

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was jointly established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme in 1988. IPCC findings regarding climate change are based on climate models that simulate past and current climates, taking into account relevant physical, geophysical, chemical and biological processes, driven by

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Environmental Assessment Certificate Application for the RichmondAirportVancouver Rapid Transit Project

a range of socioeconomic assumptions (MWLAP 2001). In 1997, the IPCC issued a Special Report entitled The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability which describes the range of climate change impacts that may be incurred by ecosystems, hydrology and water resources, food and fiber production, coastal systems, human settlements and human health in 10 different global regions. In North America, with regard to human settlements, the 1997 IPCC report predicts that operation and maintenance costs of land and water transportation could be affected both negatively and positively. The impact, extent and direction of these costs and demands will vary, depending on the nature of local climate change effects which will in turn be influenced by sitespecific differences in topography, climate and geography. Areas that experience increased incidence of natural hazards (e.g., extreme weather events), flooding due to sea level rise, and/or dramatic changes in hydrology and weather patterns (e.g., increased runoff, heavy rainfall, prolonged drought) (IPCC 1997) will likely be most adversely affected. Although protected by a system of dykes (see SECTION 18.1.4), the Fraser River delta is potentially vulnerable due to flooding as a result of an increase in sea levels and may also be affected by changes in the annual hydrologic regime. Although most sources acknowledge that current climate change models do not include the level of detail required to make projections at the local level (MWLAP 2001), potential rates of sea level rise on the delta have been estimated to range between 140 and 280 mm (5.5 to 11 inches) over the next 50 years (Church 2002 in MWLAP 2003). As winter temperatures increase and more precipitation falls as rain rather than snow, the IPCC predicts that the hydrologic regime of river systems that are currently characterized by spring snowmelt may experience a seasonal shift. Such a shift would result in a larger proportion of total runoff in winter, with possible reductions in summer flows (MWLAP 2001).

18.1.3

Seismic Activity

The damage potential of an earthquake is determined by how the ground moves and how the buildings within the affected region are constructed (Natural Resources Canada 2003). The Geological Survey of Canada prepares seismic zoning maps based on statistical analysis of past

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Environmental Assessment Certificate Application for the RichmondAirportVancouver Rapid Transit Project

earthquakes and recent advances made in understanding tectonic and geological structure and dynamics. These maps express seismic hazard as the most powerful ground motion expected in a particular zone at a given level of probability. The information contained in the maps, combined with earthquake load guidelines, are incorporated into the National Building Code and used to ensure that seismic hazard is taken into account during design and construction and structures are made as earthquake proof as possible. The Lower Mainland is considered to be an area of moderate to high seismic risk related to ongoing subduction of the oceanic plate beneath the continental plate off the coast of Vancouver Island. The primary geotechnical hazards associated with a seismic event within the RAV Project area are: direct impacts of ground motions on structures and facilities; permanent vertical and horizontal ground deformations; liquefaction of saturated granular soils, possibly causing lateral spreading, subsidence, loss of bearing capacity, and flow slides; and seismically-induced slope failures.

18.1.4

Flood Risk

In coastal BC, flooding usually occurs as a result of heavy rainfall, often in association with melting snow. The highest risk of flooding in the Fraser River floodplain within the RAV Project area occurs during spring snowmelt freshet (i.e., May to mid-July), the magnitude of which varies depending on snowpack depth and weather conditions during the melt period (Environment Canada 2000). Flood conditions near the river mouth can be accentuated by extreme high tides as well as storm conditions. A system of dykes, built to Fraser River Flood Control Program design standards, extends along both sides of the lower river and around both Lulu Island and Sea Island, as protection against flooding. The dykes are constructed to provide for 0.6 m (2 feet) freeboard1 over the maximum water level that occurred during the 1894 flood, the largest flood recorded on the Fraser River in modern times (MWLAP 2003).

Freeboard is the vertical allowance added to the standard design flood levels to allow for uncertainties in flood levels (MWLAP 2003).

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Environmental Assessment Certificate Application for the RichmondAirportVancouver Rapid Transit Project

18.2

Impact Analysis
Extreme Weather Events

18.2.1

Extreme weather events would be expected to primarily affect street level and elevated guideway sections and stations, rather than underground portions of the RAV system. In any case, all of the projects structural components will be designed to accommodate the maximum degree of expansion and contraction that could occur due to temperature extremes in this area, and to withstand maximum wind conditions experienced at site-specific locations along the corridor. Since the maximum snowfall likely to occur in the project area would result in a snow load on exposed sections of guideway that is less than the live load, there are no concerns regarding the capacity of the system with regard to snowfall. Due to its ability to affect localized ground conditions, heavy rainfall is the only weather condition that has the potential to adversely affect the RAV Project. To address this concern, the project will be designed to avoid or stabilize areas that could fail due to saturated soil conditions. Fill slopes will be stabilized, as necessary, and structure footings will be located below surficial materials that may be subject to sloughing. Column support structures will be designed to withstand any minor sloughing. The RAV Project will be designed to withstand a 1 in 100 year wind storm with substantial strength reserves to accommodate more severe storms.

18.2.2

Climate Change

An increase in sea level and/or the alteration of hydrologic regimes could result in increased flooding in the Fraser River delta, with adverse impacts to settled areas and transportation infrastructure, such as the RAV system. At present, however, this area is well protected by a system of dykes that are subject to routine inspection and maintenance by Richmond and Vancouver, under the scrutiny of the Deputy Inspector of Dykes.

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18.2.3

Seismic Activity

The risk of ground failure and associated damage to the RAV line due to an earthquake would be greatest in proximity to watercourses (i.e., False Creek, Fraser River) and in Richmond. Since the RAV system will be located in an area that is at moderate to high risk for seismic activity, all project components will be designed to accommodate a 1 in 475 year earthquake.

18.2.4

Flood Risk

The risk of flood damage is limited to those segments on the RAV line that cross the Fraser River and adjacent foreshore in South Vancouver and Richmond (i.e., Segments 5, 6 and 8). Since the portion of the project area that extends into Richmond is protected by well maintained dykes, the risk of flood damage to structures situated in upland areas is minimal. Project components will be designed to accommodate a 1 in 200 year flood event on the Fraser River. The risk of damage to in-river column foundations due to scour during a flood event will be addressed in site-specific footing designs (e.g., placement of protective material around pile caps).

18.3

Prescribed Environmental Design and Management Requirements

The Project will be designed to: Withstand maximum wind conditions for the Project area; Avoid or stabilize areas that could fail due to saturated soil conditions in the event of a heavy rainfall; Include stabilization of fill slopes, if necessary and only at column locations; Accommodate a 1 in 475 year return period seismic event; and Withstand a 1 in 200 year flood event on the Fraser River. Geotechnical studies conducted to date will provide the basis for the preliminary engineering (see SECTION 3.7). Detailed geotechnical studies will be conducted during detailed design.

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Environmental Assessment Certificate Application for the RichmondAirportVancouver Rapid Transit Project

18.4

Conclusion

Where possible, the RAV Project will be designed to mitigate all potential effects of the environment on the project. It is anticipated that there will be no significant or residual adverse effects of the environment on the project.

18.5

References

Church, M. 2002. Potential Changes in Relative Sea Level and Implications for Sustainability in the Fraser River Delta. Presented at The Changing Face of the Lower Fraser River Estuary New Westminster, B.C. Cited in: BC Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection. 2003. Dike Design and Construction Guide. Best Management Practices for British Columbia. Flood Hazard Management Section, Environmental Protection Division. Available online at: http://wlapwww.gov.bc.ca/wat/flood/pdfs_word/aug03_dike_des_cons_gui de.pdf [Accessed October 20, 2004]. City of Richmond. 2003. Being Prepared: About Emergency Programs. City Services, Emergency Services. Available online at: http://www.city.richmond.bc.ca/emergency/prepare/prepare_index.htm [Accessed on February 5, 2004] Environment Canada. 2004. Climate Normals or Averages 1971-2000. Available online at: http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climate_normals/stnselect_e.html [Accessed on February 5, 2004] Environment Canada. 2000. Flooding Events in Canada British Columbia. Available online at: http://www.ec.gc.ca/water/en/manage/floodgen/e bc.htm [Accessed on October 20, 2004]. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 1997. IPCC Special Report. The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability. Summary for Policymakers. Available online at: http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/regional(E).pdf [Accessed on October 19, 2004]

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Environmental Assessment Certificate Application for the RichmondAirportVancouver Rapid Transit Project

Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection. 2002. Indicators of Climate Change for British Columbia 2001. Available online at: http://wlapwww.gov.bc.ca/air/climate/indicat/appendix.html [Accessed October 20, 2004]. Natural Resources Canada 2003. Earthquakes Canada. Seismic Hazard Calculations. Available online at: http://www.seismo.nrcan.gc.ca/hazards/zoning/haz_e.php [Accessed on February 5, 2004]

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