Winter variability in Romania

Marius-Victor Birsan & Alexandru Dumitrescu Meteo Romania National Meteorological Administration marius.birsan@gmail.com

Funded by FP7-EURO4M 242093

in connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation

Data
Daily data from 105 meteo stations, 1961-2010, for the standard meteorological season (DJF); (1) daily snow depth (measured at 6AM for the previous day); (2) number of days with snow cover; (3) number of snowfall days; (4) mean daily temperature; (5) number of days with Tmin> 0C (calendar day); (6) mean daily precipitation; The NAO index of Li and Wang*, defined as the difference in the normalized monthly sea level pressure, regionally zonal-averaged over the North Atlantic sector from 80W to 30E between 35N and 65N.
*) Li J, Wang J. 2003. A new North Atlantic Oscillation index and its variability. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 20(5): 661-676. DOI: 10.1007/BF02915394.

Methods

The local significance of trends has been analyzed with the nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK) test. The MK test is a rank-based procedure, particularly suitable for non-normally distributed data, data containing outliers and non-linear trends. The significance level was fixed at 10% (two-tail test). The slope estimate is conducted with the nonparametric Kendall-Theil method (also known as Theil-Sen slope estimate) which is suitable for a nearly linear trend in the variable x and is less affected by non-normal data and outliers. Spearman's rho is a nonparametric rank-based correlation coefficient used to estimate the monotone association between two random variables. It is computed from the difference between the ranks of two independently sorted variables.

Results

Increasing trend Decreasing trend No trend

p-value < 0.01 p-value < 0.05 p-value > 0.05

Trends in mean snow depth

Trends in mean temperature

Correlation of the NAO DJF index with the mean snow depth (DJF)

Trends in the number of days with snow coverage

Trends in the number of days with positive temperature ( Tmin>0C)

Correlation of the NAO DJF index with the number of days with snow coverage

Conclusions
(1) Substantial changes in snow depth and duration have occurred, with 29% of the stations presenting decreasing trends in the number of days with snow coverage; at 18% of the stations the mean snow depth also shows decreasing trends. The snow pack at higher elevation is stable. (2) The number of snowfall days decreased at 82% of the stations, pointing to a dramatic change of the winter season, and in the meantime to an intensification of the water cycle: snowfalls are getting shorter and more intense. (3) The increase in the number of days with Tmin > 0C at 63% of the locations, together with the slight decrease in winter precipitation explain the diminution of the snowfall days. (4) The number of snowfall days, snow duration and mean snow depth present strong negative correlations with the NAO index for the same period (DJF). The large scale circulation over the North Atlantic has a considerable effect on the Romanian winter season .