HENRY R. NAU
In Ukraine, a little force is being used early - but by only one side. Russia used a little force to occupy Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, then to annex Crimea, and today to dominate the governance of eastern and perhaps the rest of Ukraine. While Europe and America can't believe what Russia is doing, Vladimir Putin is already using a little force early to address his next objective. Since 2009, Russia has doubled its military forces along its border with the Baltic states - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Meanwhile, President Barack Obama announces, at a White House news conference, that "military options are not on the table in Ukraine because this is not a situation that would be amenable to a military solution." Will that be the case too, if Russia beats the West to the use of a little force early in the Baltic states? Obama, who had no negotiating experience going into the Oval Office, is getting an education. Diplomacy is not a substitute for the use of force, to be used only if diplomacy fails. In fact, diplomacy will fail unless it is backed by force. And when negotiations fail, much more force is needed.
Henry R. Nau
It is beyond credulity to blame NATO's expansion for Russia's actions. What conceivable threat did NATO pose when it expanded? It purposely kept ground forces out of the former Soviet satellite countries, made Russia a partner in the new NATO alliance, scuttled missile defenses that Russia opposed, and pushed arms control agreements that benefitted Russia the Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty (SORT) under Bush and New START Treaty under Obama. Sure, weak and destabilized states like Georgia and Ukraine made mistakes. But big enough mistakes to threaten Russia?
Because NATO failed to use a little force early, eastern and maybe the whole of Ukraine is lost today without a much greater use of force, which neither Europe nor America can stomach. But there is a chance that NATO can wake up and use a little force early in the NATO border countries that are next on Moscow's list. If it doesn't, NATO will face exactly the same problem of having to use much greater force later, and again perhaps not being able to stomach it. Under its resolute Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO is considering moving ground forces into Romania, Poland and Latvia, increasing and upgrading the aircraft that patrol NATO's airspace, and resuming work on stalled missile defenses. For all the talk of sanctions and long-term energy alternatives, these military moves are the ones that really matter. What good does it do to reduce Europe's energy dependence on Russia after Russia effectively colonizes or "Belarussifies" Ukraine, Moldova, Poland or the Baltic states?