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Demand Characteristics

Annual Ridership
Route
Route Description
10 CU-Commons
81 CU Weekday
82 CU Weekday
83 CU Weekday
90 Commons-CU Night
92 CU Night
93 CU Night

2013
479,132
567,562
404,614
55,241
56,871
129,039
58,108

2012
440,588
548,821
394,393
51,894
44,631
116,019
46,258

Academic Year's Monthly Ridership (2013)


Route
Route Description
January*
February
10 CU-Commons
34,738
81 CU Weekday
45,381
82 CU Weekday
31,760
83 CU Weekday
4,215
90 Commons-CU Night
2,569
92 CU Night
8,351
93 CU Night
3,513

38,544
18,741
10,221
3,347
12,240
13,020
11,850

March
49,331
66,607
48,171
8,193
5,541
16,811
6,360

Academic Year's Daily Ridership (2013), Weekday Only


Route
Route Description
Average Daily Peak AM Ridership
10 CU-Commons
2,117
81 CU Weekday
2,517
82 CU Weekday
1,844
83 CU Weekday
290
90 Commons-CU Night
235
92 CU Night
379
93 CU Night
194

44,145
55,991
40,792
6,399
6,073
15,777
6,029

Peak PM Ridership

% Change
8.0%
3.3%
2.5%
6.1%
21.5%
10.1%
20.4%

April
51,581
68,929
42,499
8,336
7,924
18,847
7,048

Cornell Enrollments, and Faculty & Staff stats


Year
Undergrads
Grads
Total Enrollment
2011-2012
14,158
6,964
21,424
2012-2013
14,393
5,023
21,593
2013-2014*
21,712
* = Projected
Percent Using TCAT
Undergrad
Grad
Faculty
Staff
14%
15%
38%

May*
August* September October
November December*
35,587
32,556
50,869
53,344
44,344
30,531
52,080
30,465
52,721
58,761
51,811
34,601
25,814
25,304
40,689
46,088
40,165
26,774
2,392
1,222
5,710
7,771
6,653
4,350
5,061
2,962
6,487
7,223
6,836
4,037
8,905
4,524
15,591
14,763
15,563
9,907
5,133
3,801
6,407
6,501
6,091
3,865

Staff
8,081
8,103

Assigned 0.5 weight to *


AVERAGE
45,040
54,510
39,154
6,144
5,925
14,149
5,824

Faculty
1,564
1,628

ssigned 0.5 weight to *

Total Staff-Faculty
9,645
9,731
9,818

For each route:


1. The stops' locations
2. The distance between any two stops
3. The passenger counts after stop j but before stop j+1
4. (etc?)
for instance, this morning, I observed 26 passengers on the bus from Balch to Goldwin Smith.
Assume the distance is .3 mile. And the bus capacity is 60 passengers. The 'point' load factor is 26/60
(the distance has nothing to do with the point LF, but it is important for the space-average LF)
We will calculate
1. Peak LF
2. Point LF (don't have to be complete)
3. Space-average LF
Also we may want to calculate (or ask for):
1. Seat utilization
2. Average Trip Length

oldwin Smith.
t' load factor is 26/60
average LF)

We need to ask TCAT what their on-time criteria are.


Some criteria we may consider for now:
1. The adherence to arrival and departure time for each timepoint
2. Average schedule deviation (minutes?)
3. Actual speed vs. scheduled speed (For the scheduled speed, we need to
approximate the route length and how long the entire route takes.. For the actual,
the data is in the document in dropbox)
etc.

Need to ask TCAT for these...

Cost & Benefit Analysis


3%
Mileage

Series

Conventional
Articulated

Stylized
Articulated

Model

Dimension &
Weight

NABI 60 LFW

60-102-116
42,800 lbs

New Flyer DE60LF

61-102-132
42,700 lbs

NABI 60 BRT

60-102-137
47,200 lbs

New Flyer DE60LF-BRT

61-102-136
43,700 lbs

Van Hool AG2003

60.5-102-13
38,720 lbs

Capacity
(Seats +
Bus No. Standees) Initial Cost
1

93 $ 791,731.30

115 Not Stated

92 Not Stated

106 $ 950,077.56

106 Not Stated

Miles
Traveled

Fuel

Gallons of
Fuel and Propulsion Fuel Used
Diesel, CNG or DieselHybrid
Diesel, DieselHybrid, or Gasoline
Hybrid
Diesel, DieselHybrid, CNG, LNG
Diesel, DieselHybrid, or Gasoline
Hybrid
ULSD

Fuel Cost per


Mile (Diesel)

Fuel Cost per


Mile (Hybrid)

0.78

0.61

0.78

0.61

0.78

0.61

0.78

0.61

0.78

0.61

Miles per Gallon


(non-Hybrid)*

Miles per Gallon


(Hybrid)*

3.8

5.1

3.8

5.1

*Actual Fuel Economy (during 6-month evaluation period

Maintenance

Labor
Hours

Cost of
Parts

Total Maintenance Cost Total Maintenance Cost Parts Cost Per


per Mile (Diesel)
per Mile (Hybrid)
Mile (Diesel)

Parts Cost Per


Mile (Hybrid)

0.46

0.47

0.06

0.08

0.46

0.47

0.06

0.08

0.46

0.47

0.06

0.08

0.46

0.47

0.06

0.08

0.06

0.08

0.46
0.47
ing 6-month evaluation period) 2.55 mpg for Diesel model, and 3.21 mpg for Hybrid model.

Total Operating Cost

Total Operating
Cost (Diesel)

Road Calls

Total Operating
Cost (Hybrid)

1.25

1.07

1.25

1.07

1.25

1.07

1.25

1.07

1.25

1.07

Minor Road Major Road Rd. Calls/1K


Calls
Calls
Mi.

Economic Implications
Day-by-Day Farebox Information
Revenue Miles and Revenue Hours
TCATs Cost Allocation for Cornell routes

mic Implications
Day Farebox Information
nue Miles and Revenue Hours
s Cost Allocation for Cornell routes/ Cornells Subsidy

2010
3,351,817
1,712,994
125,414

Ridership
Rev. Miles
Rev. Hours

2011
3,944,620
1,712,601
127,391

4,128,242
1,571,258
120,098

Wages & Benefits


as percentage of total direct cost
Direct Cost per Hour
Fuel, Fluids, Maintenance, Repairs
as percentage of total direct cost
Direct Cost per Mile

4,873,504

$
$

70.0%
38.86 $
2,084,769 $

68.7%
40.19 $
2,333,847

30.0%
1.22 $

31.3%
1.36 $

Direct Cost

Revenue
Total Op. Subsidy

$
6,308,025
$ 13,266,298

$
6,769,835
$ 14,223,030

$
6,935,659
$ 14,402,823

Op. Subsidy per Ri

Total Cost
Revenues ("Other Revenues," Gadabout)
Net Total Cost
Avg. Cost per Hour
Avg. Cost per Rider

$ 12,178,431
$
199,240
$ 11,979,191
$
95.52
$
3.57

$ 12,860,549
$
204,181
$ 12,656,368
$
99.35
$
3.21

$ 12,877,045
$
172,721
$ 12,704,324
$
105.78
$
3.08

Overhead
Piecemeal Cost per Hour
Piecemeal Cost per Mile

$
$
$

5,020,918
66.88
2.10

$
$
$

5,203,173
68.25
2.31

$
$
$

5,237,160
72.4892
2.5448

Total Farebox
Avg. Farebox per Rider

$
$

3,768,573
1.12

$
$

3,990,569
1.01

$
$

4,179,553
1.01

6,958,273

3.96

2012

5,119,348

7,453,195

3.61

5,107,894
68.4%
42.53
2,359,270
31.6%
1.50
7,467,164

3.49

Route

Route

10
81
82
83
90
92
93

January
# Weekdays Daily Avg
34738
22
1579
45381
22
2063
31760
22
1444
4215
22
192
2141
22
97
4815
22
219
2597
22
118
February # Weekdays Daily Avg
49331
20
2467
66607
20
3330
48171
20
2409
8193
20
410
4796
20
240
9500
20
475
4522
20
226

Route

10
81
82
83
90
92
93

March
# Weekdays Daily Avg
44145
21
2102
55991
21
2666
40792
21
1942
6399
21
305
5148
21
245
9014
21
429
4243
21
202

Route

10
81
82
83
90
92
93

April

Route

Route

Route
10
81
82
83
90
92
93
Route

# Weekdays Daily Avg


22
2345
22
3133
22
1932
22
379
22
312
22
516
22
233

Route

51581
68929
42499
8336
6864
11346
5122

# Weekdays Daily Avg


22
1618
22
1612
22
1173
22
109
22
205
22
239
22
178

Route

35587
35471
25814
2392
4514
5264
3924

May
10
81
82
83
90
92
93

10
81
82
83
90
92
93

August
# Weekdays Daily Avg
32556
22
1480
30465
22
1385
25304
22
1150
1222
22
56
2398
22
109
2693
22
122
2887
22
131

10
81
82
83
90
92
93

September # Weekdays Daily Avg


50869
21
2422
52721
21
2511
40689
21
1938
5710
21
272
5185
21
247
7980
21
380
3922
21
187

10
81
82
83
90
92
93

October
# Weekdays Daily Avg
53344
23
2319
58761
23
2555
46088
23
2004
7771
23
338
6212
23
270
9072
23
394
4871
23
212

10
81
82
83
90
92
93

November # Weekdays Daily Avg


44344
20
2217
51811
20
2591
40165
20
2008
6653
20
333
5563
20
278
8144
20
407
4225
20
211

10
81
82
83
90
92
93

December # Weekdays Daily Avg


30531
21
1454
34601
21
1648
26774
21
1275
4350
21
207
3424
21
163
5857
21
279
2819
21
134

Route

Jan*
10
81
82
83
90
92
93

Feb
1579
2063
1444
192
97
219
118

Mar
2467
3330
2409
410
240
475
226

Apr
2102
2666
1942
305
245
429
202

May*
2345
3133
1932
379
312
516
233

Aug*
1618
1612
1173
109
205
239
178

1480
1385
1150
56
109
122
131

Sep

Oct
2422
2511
1938
272
247
380
187

Nov
2319
2555
2004
338
270
394
212

Dec*
2217
2591
2008
333
278
407
211

Avg
1454
1648
1275
207
163
279
134

2117
2517
1844
290
235
379
194

Double Exponential Smoothing


Year
Total Enrollment
1999
19,021
2000
18,995
2001
19,420
2002
19,575
2003
19,620
2004
19,518
2005
19,447
2006
19,639
2007
19,800
2008
20,273
2009
20,633
2010
20,939
2011
21,131
2012
21,424
2013
21,593

Predicted
19,021
19,021
18,969
19,845
19,730
19,665
19,416
19,376
19,831
19,961
20,746
20,993
21,245
21,323

Updated E
19,021
19,021
18,995
19,420
19,575
19,620
19,518
19,447
19,639
19,800
20,273
20,633
20,939
21,131
21,424

Updated T
(26)
425
155
45
(102)
(71)
192
161
473
360
306
192
293
MSE

Error^2
676
159,201
367,236
50,625
44,944
47,524
49,729
179,776
195,364
451,584
37,249
19,044
32,041
72,900
121,992

Chart Title
22,000

21,500

Axis Title

21,000

20,500

20,000

19,500

19,000

18,500
1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Axis Title

2008

2010

2012

Weight
alpha
beta

Constraint
1.00
1
1.00
1

Total Enrollment
WMA
Holt's
3MV
Single EXP

2014

3-Period Moving Average


Year
Total Enrollment 3-Period Avg Prediction
1999
19,021
2000
18,995
2001
19,420
19,145
2002
19,575
19,330
19,145
2003
19,620
19,538
19,330
2004
19,518
19,571
19,538
2005
19,447
19,528
19,571
2006
19,639
19,535
19,528
2007
19,800
19,629
19,535
2008
20,273
19,904
19,629
2009
20,633
20,235
19,904
2010
20,939
20,615
20,235
2011
21,131
20,901
20,615
2012
21,424
21,165
20,901
2013
21,593
21,383
21,165
MSE
2-period WMA
Year
Total Enrollment WMA
Prediction
1999
19,021
2000
18,995
18,995
2001
19,420
19,420
18,995
2002
19,575
19,575
19,420
2003
19,620
19,620
19,575
2004
19,518
19,518
19,620
2005
19,447
19,447
19,518
2006
19,639
19,639
19,447
2007
19,800
19,800
19,639
2008
20,273
20,273
19,800
2009
20,633
20,633
20,273
2010
20,939
20,939
20,633
2011
21,131
21,131
20,939
2012
21,424
21,424
21,131
2013
21,593
21,593
21,424
MSE
Weight
alpha
beta
1.00
1.00

Error^2

184,613
84,100
413
15,376
12,247
70,402
415,165
531,441
495,147
266,256
273,529
183,469
211,013

Error^2

180,625
24,025
2,025
10,404
5,041
36,864
25,921
223,729
129,600
93,636
36,864
85,849
28,561
67,934

Single Exp Smoothing


Year
Total Enrollment Delta
prediction err^2
1999
19,021
2000
18,995
(26)
2001
19,420
425 18,976.67 196,539
2002
19,575
155 19,719.57
20,901
2003
19,620
45 19,684.26
4,129
2004
19,518
(102) 19,651.72
17,881
2005
19,447
(71) 19,446.10
1
2006
19,639
192 19,396.95
58,586
2007
19,800
161 19,774.34
659
2008
20,273
473 19,913.48 129,251
2009
20,633
360 20,606.41
707
2010
20,939
306 20,886.75
2,730
2011
21,131
192 21,154.69
561
2012
21,424
293 21,266.34
24,858
2013
21,593
169 21,630.53
1,408
MSE
35,247
Weight
alpha
0.70
2014

21,712.12