4/24/2014

Course: Decision Science

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Subject : Decision Science (PGDM, Semester III)

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Faculty : Sumana Chaudhuri Course objective:

The fundamental premise of the course is to improve the decision making skills under conditions of uncertainty with array of choices and related consequences. Today for sustenance maintaining quality product is not sufficient for the firms, rather the product should be cost competitive and simultaneously firms should manage inventory, warehouse space, procurement requirements etc. The manager has to make these sorts of different decisions every day. Some decisions are routine and inconsequential, while others may impact the operations of a firm. The field of Decision Science help managers to develop the expertise and tools to understand decision problems, put them into mathematical terms and solve them.

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Quantitative Techniques in Management: N D Vohra, 4th Edition, McGraw-Hill Quantitative Techniques for Managerial Decisions: J K Sharma, Macmillan India Essentials of Econometrics: Gujarati & Porter, 4th Edition, McGraw Hill
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Theory of Econometrics: A Koutsoyannis, 2nd Edition, Palgrave Publishers Statistics for Business & Economics: Anderson, Sweeney & Williams, 11th Edition,
Rochester Institute Of Technology

Operations Research: Theory & Applications: J K Sharma, Macmillan India

Evaluation Components : Evaluation Component for the Course Class Participation & Conduct Tutorials Mid Term Exam Case Study Presentation End Term Exam Total Score Break up 5 20 20 15 40 100

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Allocation of Major Topics among Sessions: Serial no. Topics to be covered 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Decision analysis Forecasting Technique Game Theory: An Interactive Decision Approach MID TERM TEST Econometrics Econometric Problems Simultaneous Equation Models Tutorials on Econometrics & Case Analysis
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Sessions I to IV Sessions V to VII Sessions VIII to X Session XI Sessions XII to XVI Sessions XVII Session XVIII Sessions XIX & XX

Session I to IV: Decision Analysis

Session I: Introductory Conceptualisation of Decision theory Decision Theory helps to build up an analytic mindset among learners to make decisions under conditions of uncertainty as well as under risk.

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Course: Decision Science

decisions under conditions of uncertainty as well as under risk. The session facilitates to develop decisions in terms of pay-offs resulting from various combinations of alternative courses of action and corresponding events.
DS Session 1 PGDM

Session II: Single Stage Decision Making Problem

DS Session 2

Session III: Decision Tree Session Outcome: Decision Tree as a very effective device in a Multi-Stage Decision Making Problem, enables decision maker to frame various elements of a Sequential Decision Problem in proper perspective & in a systematic manner.

DS Session 3

Session IV: Expected Value vs Expected Utility Session Outcome: Different individuals attach different utility to money under different conditions. Based on this fact, the Utility Theory aids decision makers to build decisions on the basis of maximizing expected utility rather than expected monetary value. Numerical exercises on practical business oriented problems make the learners conceptually more strong as well as build confidence among them to deal with the real life decision making problems under uncertainty faced by managers most often.
EV vs EU

Session V & VI: FORECASTING

Session V: Qualitative & Time Series Models of Forecasting Session Outcome: Identify the different forecasting objects & relate to the corresponding forecasting model. Produce reliable & accurate business forecasts & design reliable implementations for real applications.

Forecasting

Session VI: Tutorial on Forecasting Session Outcome: The Tutorial helps to gain confidence toward solving practical problems on forecasting exercises.
Exponential Smoothing & Trend Projection

Session VII to IX: Game theory: An Interactive Decision Approach

Session VII: Two-Person Zero-Sum Games Session Outcome: The main objective of Game Theory is to determine the rules of rational behavior in the game situations, in which the outcomes are dependent on the actions of the interdependent players. This session deals with Two-Person Zero-Sum games & their various facets like- Pure Strategies, Mixed Strategies & Rule of Dominance.
Game theory 1

Session VIII: Two-Person Zero-Sum Games (contd) Session Outcome: The session helps learners to build up a systematic quantitative approach for analyzing competitive situations in which the competitors make use of logical processes & techniques in order to determine an optimal winning strategy
Mixed Strategy

Session IX: Tutorial on Game Theory

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Session IX: Tutorial on Game Theory

Course: Decision Science

10 Session X: Case Study Discussion 11 Session XI: MID TERM TEST 12

Session XII to XVI: ECONOMETRICS

Session XII: Simple Linear Regression Model (CLRM & CNLRM)- The Problem of Estimation Session Outcome:
The session helps to conceptualize CLRM as the basic framework of regression analysis & its assumptions. The session delivers BLUE of OLS, precision of OLS measured by standard errors and goodness of fit of the regression model measured by coefficient of determination. The session shows how CLRM differs from CNLRM and CLT as a theoretical justification for normality.
Tw o Variable Regression Model Introduction to Econometrics

13 Session XIII:

Two-Variable Regression: Interval Estimation & Hypothesis Testing

Session Outcome: The session details on Hypothesis Testing. Enable learners to set up ANOVA table for analyzing regression analysis, applying regression analysis for the problem of prediction and evaluating the results of regression analysis by Normality tests.

14 Session XIV:

Multiple Regression Analysis: The Problem of Estimation Session Outcome:

This session, although an extension of two variable model but it gives insight into some new concepts, like-partial regression coefficient, multiple correlation coefficient and adjusted & unadjusted R2

15 Session XV: Multiple Regression Analysis: The Problem of Inference Session Outcome : This session enable learners to apply ANOVA approach for testing the significance of Multiple Regression.

16 Session XVI: TUTORIAL on ECONOMETRICS Consist of: Simple & Multiple Regression Analysis and ANOVA approach for problem of inference. 17

Session XVII Econometric Problems- Relaxing the Assumptions of the Classical Model
Multicollinearity, Heteroscedasticity & Autocorrelation Session outcome: The session talks about what happens if the regressors are correlated (Problem of
Multicollinearity), when the error variance is non constant ( problem of Heteroscedasticity) and what happens when the error terms are correlated ( problem of Autocorrelation) The detection of multicollinearity is important. The session helps students to learn the consequences of multicollinearity and enabling them to deal with the problem.

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Session XVIII: ADVANCED TOPIC IN ECONOMETRICS

Simultaneous Equation Models Session Outcome:

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Course: Decision Science

The session enable learners to conceptualise the nature of simultaneity problem, inconsistency of OLS estimators , rules for identification-the order condition and estimation of an identified equation through ILS and 2SLS.

19 Session XIX: Tutorial on Econometrics 20 Session XX: Case Analysis & Course Wrap up

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