Risk Assessment: Risk assessment is the determination of quantitative or qualitative value of risk related to a concrete situation and a recognized

threat (also called hazard). Quantitative risk assessment requires calculations of two components of risk (R) 1. The magnitude of the potential loss (L), 2. The probability (p) that the loss will occur. Or Risk Assessment, or risk evaluation, is a scientific/ mathematical discipline which is a substantive, changing and controversial field Or Risk Assessment is defined as the determination of pathology caused by human production and activity, with the understanding that "pathology" is a change in some aspect of human anatomical structure or function

The nuclear, aerospace, oil, rail and military industries have a long history of dealing with risk assessment. Also, medical, hospital, and food industries control risks and perform risk assessments on a continual basis. Methods for assessment of risk may differ between industries and whether it pertains to general financial decisions or environmental, ecological, or public health risk assessment. Quantitative Vs Qualitative Risk Assessment: Quantitative Assessment - virtually the same thing as hazard evaluation step of Quantitative Risk Assessment. It assesses the material harmful to humans under any circumstances. This assessment is codified by agencies, especially for cancer. Qualitative Assessment - A formal process with four steps as shown below. Ends with a mathematical estimation of actual risk, usually quantified as deaths per 1,000,000 per year or less.
Identifying Hazards

Assessing Risk

Applying Controls

Reviewing Effect

The Core Elements of Risk All forms of risk, whether they are classified as speculative or hazard risks, comprise common elements. This notion is illustrated in Figure 2, which highlights the following four basic components of risk:

1. 2. 3. 4.

Context Action Conditions Consequences. Context Could lead to

Action + Conditions

i.e..Uncertainty

Consequences

Risk Evaluation: Risk assessment consists of an objective evaluation of risk in which assumptions and uncertainties are clearly considered and presented. Part of the difficulty in risk management is that measurement of both of the quantities in which risk assessment is concerned - potential loss and probability of occurrence - can be very difficult to measure. Expressed mathematically,

Ri = Lip(Li) Rtotal = Lip(Li)

For public health and environmental decisions, loss is simply a verbal description of the outcome, such as increased cancer incidence or incidence of birth defects. In that case, the "risk" is expressed as

Ri = p(Li)
Risk = Probability of the problem occurring x Impact of the problem if it occurs

Four Elements of Risk Analysis: 1. Risk Assessment (Risk Evaluation) 2. Risk Communication 3. Risk Perception 4. Risk Management (Risk Characterization (EPA)) Risk Determination: 1. Hazard Identification aims to determine the qualitative nature of the potential adverse consequences of the contaminant (chemical, radiation, noise, etc.) and the strength of the evidence it can have that effect. This is done, for chemical hazards, by drawing from the results of the sciences of toxicology and epidemiology. For other kinds of hazard, engineering or other disciplines are involved. 2. Dose-Response Analysis is determining the relationship between dose and the probability or the incidence of effect (dose-response assessment). The complexity of this step in many contexts derives mainly from the need to extrapolate results from experimental animals (e.g. mouse, rat) to humans, and/or from high to lower doses. In addition, the differences between individuals due to genetics or other factors mean that the hazard may be higher for particular groups, called susceptible populations. An alternative to dose-response estimation is to determine an effect unlikely to yield observable effects, that is, a no effect concentration. In developing such a dose, to account for the largely unknown effects of animal to human extrapolations, increased variability in humans, or missing data, a prudent approach is often adopted by including safety factors in the estimate of the "safe" dose, typically a factor of 10 for each unknown step. 3. Exposure Quantification aims to determine the amount of a contaminant (dose) that individuals and populations will receive. This is done by examining the results of the discipline of exposure assessment. As different location, lifestyles and other factors likely influence the amount of contaminant that is received, a range or distribution of possible values is generated in this step. Particular care is taken to determine the exposure of the susceptible population(s).

Types of Study available for Hazard Evolution: Human Evidence (Epidemiology) Whole animal studies (toxicology; animals exposed to known dose and allowed to live to times of sacrifice or natural death) In-vitro studies (studies on cells in culture) Structure-function relationship study and similar Identification of active compounds in metabolism For Human Case reports (example: angiosarcoma of liver) Case series (example: mesothelioma in S. Africa) Descriptive epidemiology (much like geographic study; ecological fallacy is a problem) Analytical epidemiology: Cohort studies: following exposed humans through time

Case-referent studies: comparing cases of given disease to MATCHED referents and noting differences in exposure. For Animals

Studies of cells (in vitro studies: example O2-) Acute toxicity studies (how much does it take to kill half of all the animals?) Chronic toxicity studies: Best method but very expensive and time-consuming Proper design (doses, sacrifice times, animal selection) a must.

Risk Assessment in the Field of GIS: Flood Hazard Mapping Wild life risk Assessment Mapping Wild life Movement Analysis Quantifying habit Loss and Conservation Wildlife-landscape relationship Landscape planning and conservation. Forestry Assessment In Forest resource Assessment and monitoring In Forest production In Forest Harvesting In forest Rehabilitation On climatic Changes Wildlife Habitat Forest Conservation and Biodiversity. Forest Fire Mapping Afforestration and deforestation Mapping. Agricultural Application

 Drought Assessment Soil Type and Slope Identification Pesticide residues assessment Species Identification Vegetative Growth and Stage identification. Mapping of Slope, soil, cropping pattern etc. LAI (Leaf Area Index) identification. Productivity Assessment. Soil microbial Activity assessment and diversity. Range Land Assessment Ecological Risk Assessment

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