+
=
1
Bt A
P
L
=
ln 1 ln
Installed capacity for India from 1992 2006
Value of coefficients
A B
641.99 -0.03 0.88
R
2
Diffusion Curves for wind energy
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Year
I
n
s
t
a
l
l
e
d
C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y
(
M
W
Actual Installation
Diffusion curve
Upper limit of uncertainity
Lower limit of uncertainity
Forecast Values by MNRE
Pot ent ial = 45000MW
a1
a2
a
a
m
Values in the uncertainty limit of
5%
Year Projection by
MNRE
Projection by
diffusion curve
Lower
limit
Higher limit
2007 7000 8700 2000
24800
2012 17500 23000 5800
39600
2022 40000 42900 27400
44800
Trend of Installed Capacity Small
Hydro Power Projects in India
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
I
n
s
t
a
l
l
e
d
C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y
(
M
W
Installed Capacity
Capacity Addition
Diffusion Curves for Small Hydro Power
Projects
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130
Year
I
n
s
t
a
l
l
e
d
C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y
(
M
W
Actual Installation
Diffusion curve
Upper limit of uncertainity
Lower limit of uncertainity
Forecast Values by MNRE
Diffusion curve (accelerated growth rate =9%)
Potential =15000MW
Values in the uncertainty limit of
5%
Year
Projection by
MNRE
Projection by
diffusion curve
Lower limit Higher limit
2007 1960 1970 1860 2080
2012 3360 2550 2370 2740
2022 6500 4100 3710 4520
Hydro Diffusion
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130
Year
I
n
s
t
a
l
l
e
d
C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y
(
M
W
)
.
Actual Installation
Potential 15000 MW
Potential11000 MW
Potential 20000 MW
Values by MNRE
Potenti al = 15000MW
Potenti al =20000MW
Potential = 11000MW
Maharashtra
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
i
n
s
t
a
l
l
e
d
c
a
p
a
c
i
t
y
o
f
w
i
n
d
p
o
w
e
r
(
M
W
)
Tamil nadu
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
year
i
n
s
t
a
l
l
e
d
c
a
p
a
c
i
t
y
o
f
w
i
n
d
p
o
w
e
r
i
n
M
W
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
9000
9500
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
J an-07
june
july
august
sept
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
hours
P
o
w
e
r
g
e
n
e
r
a
t
e
d
i
n
M
W
january
J une
J uly
August
September
Wind Generation
Total Generation
Tamil Nadu
2006-7
Growth in Production of Photovoltaic
Modules in India
Solar PV Modules Production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
A
n
n
u
a
l
P
V
M
o
d
u
l
e
P
r
o
d
u
c
i
t
o
n
(
M
W
)
Cost of Generation (Rs./kWh)
Capital
cost/MW
(Million INR)
Annualised
capital cost
(Million INR)
Annual
O&M
(Million INR)
ALCC
(Million
INR)
CUF=10
%
CUF=20
%
CUF=25
%
300.60 35.30 6.00 41.30 47.17 23.58 18.87
Cost of power generation using solar PV
Projected Renewable installed
capacity and generation (2022)
Installed
Capacity*
(MW)
Estimated
Capacity factor
Estimated
Generation
(GWh)
Wind
42900 17%
63400
Biomass Power
2500 70%
15300
Biomass Gasifier
100 60%
527
Bagasse
Cogeneration
5500 60%
39400
Small Hydro
6500 40%
22,800
Waste to Energy
100 50%
241
Solar PV
100 20%
175
Total
59,800 27%
142600
Aggregate Grid connected
Integrated Energy Policy Committee
2022 425000 MW Installed capacity 2118000
Generation
Renewables 14% of Installed capacity
6.7% of generation
Trends of overall growth lower than forecast values
Trends of renewable capacity higher than forecast
value
Technology cost reductions
Need for refinement of methods
Solar Water Heating System
COLLECTOR
STORAGE
TANK
FROM
OVERHEAD
TANK
TO USAGE
POINT
AUXILIARY
HEATER
STORAGE
TANK
COLLECTOR
PUMP
FROM
OVERHEAD
TANK
TO USAGE
POINT
Schematic of solar water heating system
AUXILIARY
HEATER
Solar Water Heating Systems in India
Installed Capacity = 1.5 million sq. m. (0.8% of estimated potential)
Model for Potential Estimation of Target Area
Target area
Weather data, area details
Identification and Classification of different end uses by sector (i)
Residential (1) Hospital
(2)
Nursing
Homes (3)
Hotels
(4)
Others
(5)
POTENTIAL OF SWHS IN TARGET AREA
Technical Potential (m
2
of collector area)
Economic Potential (m
2
of collector area)
Market Potential (m
2
of collector area)
Energy Savings Potential (kWh/year)
Load Shaving Potential (kWh/ hour for a monthly average day)
Sub-class (i, j)
Classification based on factors* (j)
Technical Potential
Economic Potential Market Potential
Potential for end use
sector (i = 1)
Potential
for i = 2
Potential
for i = 5
Potential
for i = 4
Potential
for i = 3
Base load
for heating
Electricity/ fuel savings
Economic
viability
Price of electricity
Investment for
SWHS
Technical
Potential
SWHS
capacity
Constraint: roof
area availability
Capacity of
SWHS
(Collector area)
Target
Auxiliary
heating
Single end use point
Micro simulation using TRNSYS
Hot water
usage pattern
Weather
data
SIMULATION
Auxiliary heating requirement
No. of end
use points
Technical
Potential
Economic
Potential
Economic
Constraint
Market
Potential
Constraint:
market
acceptance
Potential for end use sector (i = 1)
* Factors affecting the adoption/sizing of
solar water heating systems
Sub-class (i, j)
Classification based on factors* (j)
Single end use point
POTENTIAL
SECTOR (i)
Load Curve Representing Energy
Requirement for Water Heating for Pune
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Hour of day
E
n
e
r
g
y
C
o
n
s
u
m
p
t
i
o
n
(
M
W
)
Typical day of January
Typical day of May
Total Consumption =760 MWh/day
Total Consumption = 390 MWh/day
53%
Electricity Consumption for water heating of Pune
Total Consumption =14300 MWh/day
Total Consumption = 13900 MWh/day
Total Electricity Consumption of Pune
Solar Water Heater Diffusion
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1988 1998 2008 2018 2028 2038 2048 2058 2068 2078
Year
I
n
s
t
a
l
l
e
d
C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y
o
f
S
o
a
l
r
W
a
t
e
r
H
e
a
t
i
n
g
S
y
s
t
e
m
s
(
m
i
l
l
i
o
n
s
q
.
m
.
)
Actual installed (million sq. m.)
Diffusion curve
Upper limit of uncertainity
Lower limit of uncertainity
Potenti al =60 mi l l i on sq.m.
Diffusion of SWH
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
S
o
l
a
r
W
a
t
e
r
H
e
a
t
i
n
g
C
a
p
a
c
i
t
y
(
c
o
l
l
e
c
t
o
r
a
r
e
a
i
n
m
i
l
l
i
o
s
q
.
m
.
)
.
.
Actual installed (million sq. m.)
Potential 140 million sq. m.
Potential 60 million sq. m.
Potential 200 million sq. m.
Extrapolated Potential (million sq.m.)
Pot ent ial = 60 million m
2
Pot ent ial = 140 million m
2
Pot ent ial = 200 million m
2
Estimated Potential in
2092 = 199 million m
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour of the day.
L
o
a
d
(
k
W
)
Residential Electricity Demand Agriculture Demand
Industry demand Total Load
Typical Village Load Profile
Load
Factor
28%
Rajamele
WB
Only 44% of households have access to
electricity
Capacity of village electrification systems vary
from 1 kW to 100 kW
Supply for 4-6 hrs/day
~ 80,000 villages to be electrified
Village Electrification
Features of these villages (Sastry, 2003):
Difficult terrain
3-30 km away from grid
No. of households - 2 to 200
Avg. population ~ 500
Power demand quite low
Transport & communication facilities are minimal
Income levels & paying capacity low
State Type of Renewable Energy No. of Isolated Power systems
Chattisgarh
PV
Bio-Diesel
Hybrid
PV
Bio-mass
West Bengal
PV
Wind-Diesel
Bio-mass gasifier
17 (25 to 110 kW)
1 (510 kW)
2 (500 kW)
Assam
PV
Micro-hydel
1
1
PV
Karnataka PV
Solar home lighting systems
only
micro-hydel
800 (1 to 6 kW)
05 (10 kW)
01
Maharashtra
2 (5 kW)
1 (15 kW)
Andhra Pradesh
Solar home lighting systems
only
Kerala
2 (55 kW) but recently got
synchronized with the grid
Map of Ghotiya, Chattisgarh (1 kW)
Observations from readings
Though the inverter is rated as 230 V it gives
only 220V
Maximum load - 1.04 kW
Evening peak as well as a morning peak
Total power consumption ~ 10 kWh/day
Voltage at the extreme bus ~ 210V
Impedance of the line is quite high
Daily load factor = 0.46
Plant utilization factor = 0.21
Successful initiatives in decentralized
generation (Sharma, 2007)
DESI Power
Barefoot College, Tilonia
Avani, Uttaranchal
NARI, Phaltan
Sunderbans, West Bengal
Map of Rajmachi, Maharashtra
System Specifications
Capacity: 5 kW
Single phase, 220 V
100 PV modules of 50 W each
Lead acid battery of tubular type
120 V; 800 Ah
Inverter: 7.5 kVA
5 kWp Solar PV system at
Rajmachi village, Maharashtra
Experimental setup for
the measurement of load
curve and generation
Load profile taken over a day
(5 kW system)
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
0:00:00 4:48:00 9:36:00 14:24:00 19:12:00 0:00:00
ti me
l
o
a
d
Average Load
Voltage profile for different locations
of DG
0.93
0.94
0.95
0.96
0.97
0.98
0.99
1
1.01
0 5 10 15 20
bus no.
v
o
l
t
a
g
e
(
p
.
u
.
)
slack bus = 1 slack bus = 9 slack bus = 10
Bio-diesel based power
plant of 10 kW rating
(Raipur, Chattisgarh)
Solar Water pumping
system for village
Conclusions
Need for better methods of potential estimation
Diffusion models scope for improved target setting
Need to track actual generation
Policy makers underestimate renewable share
Need for uncertainty estimation
Quantification for distributed generation, DSM
options needed
10% renewable generation by renewables till 2022
achievable, basedon existing technology
Issues related to mainstreaming of renewables
Acknowledgment
Balkrishna Surve
Project Assistant
Indu R. Pillai
Ph.D - 2008
Mel George A.
M.Tech - Ongoing
M.B. Sivapriya
M.Tech - 2008
Thank you
References
AKNReddy,R H Williams, T. J ohannson,EnergyAfter Rio-
Prospects and Challenges-,UNDP, 1997, New York.
MNES Annual Reports, 2001-2008
Integrated Energy Policy Report, Planning Commission,
2006
11
th
Five year plan proposal, MNRE, Govt of India
www.mnes.nic.in
S.P.Sukhatme, Solar Energy, TataMcGraw Hill, Delhi,1997
Banerjee, Comparison of DG options, Energy Policy, 2006
Pillai, Banerjee, Solar Energy, 2007
Manish, Pillai, Banerjee, Sustainability analysis of
renewables, Energy for Sustainable Development ,
December 2006