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Mike "Mish" Shedlock of Mish's Global Economic Analysis and Sitka Pacific presents at the 2014 Wine Country Conference
www.winecountryconference.com to see videos, get updates about next year's conference, and to help support the Autism Society of America.
Judul Asli
Mike "Mish" Shedlock- Misconceptions, Misperceptions, and Blind Spots- Wine Country Conference 2014
Mike "Mish" Shedlock of Mish's Global Economic Analysis and Sitka Pacific presents at the 2014 Wine Country Conference
www.winecountryconference.com to see videos, get updates about next year's conference, and to help support the Autism Society of America.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock of Mish's Global Economic Analysis and Sitka Pacific presents at the 2014 Wine Country Conference
www.winecountryconference.com to see videos, get updates about next year's conference, and to help support the Autism Society of America.
Mike Mish Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
2 Todays Topics
Valuation Sentiment Housing Demographics 3 Tobin Q Ratio
What is it?
Its a method of estimating the fair value of the stock market developed by Nobel Laureate James Tobin. The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. 4 Tobin Q Ratio Since 1900
Source: Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
5 Tobin Q Ratio Geometric Look
Source: Doug Short Advisor Perspectives 6 Measures of Sentiment
Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase, the two largest U.S. mortgage lenders, reported a first-quarter plunge in loan volumes. MBA reported lenders made $226 billion of mortgages in the period, the smallest quarterly amount since 1997 and less than one-third of the 2006 average. 12 Home Prices Flatten
13
Prime Housing Demand
14
Prime Housing Demand Numbers
15
New Home Sales
16 Mortgage Rates Since 2007
17 Demographics
18
Employed vs. Not Employed 19 Employed vs. Not Employed Ratio 20 Student Debt Soars Out of Sight 21 College Tuition Comparison Source: Doug Short Advisor Perspectives
22 Median Income 23 Marriage Age on the Rise 24 Adults Age 18-24 Living With Parents 25 Adults Age 25-34 Living With Parents 26 Things That Are Expensive 27 Things That Are Cheap 28 Things That Are Cheap 29 Newmont Mining 30 Yield Curve 31 Investment and Trading Ideas
Invest in things that are cheap and out of favor
US Treasuries
Japanese Equities
Gold
Avoid (cautiously short) things that are expensive