Alvaro Sandroni
Northwestern University
Francesco Squintani
University College, London
August 2004
Abstract
As argued by Werner DeBondt and Richard H. Thaler (1995): Perhaps the most
robust nding in the psychology of judgment is that people are overcondent. This
paper surveys part of the vast empirical and experimental literature on overcondence.
We nd broad evidence that many subjects underestimate their health and driving
risk, and that this often results in underinvestment in precautions such as insurance.
We conclude our review by discussing training techniques developed to reduce driving
overcondence and improve trac safety.
This survey has been prepared while researching for our paper titled "The Overcondence Problem in
Insurance Markets". We thank Johannes Ho and Topi Miettinen for excellent research assistance.
Kellogg School of Management, MEDS Department, 2001 Sheridan Rd., Evanston, IL 60208, USA.