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Reynolds Group Holdings is a leading manufacturer of consumer food and beverage packaging products. Reynolds did $13. Billion of revenue and $2. Billion of EBITDA for PF LTM 9 / 30 / 11. Reynolds financed the transaction by issuing / assuming an additional $5 billion in debt.
Reynolds Group Holdings is a leading manufacturer of consumer food and beverage packaging products. Reynolds did $13. Billion of revenue and $2. Billion of EBITDA for PF LTM 9 / 30 / 11. Reynolds financed the transaction by issuing / assuming an additional $5 billion in debt.
Reynolds Group Holdings is a leading manufacturer of consumer food and beverage packaging products. Reynolds did $13. Billion of revenue and $2. Billion of EBITDA for PF LTM 9 / 30 / 11. Reynolds financed the transaction by issuing / assuming an additional $5 billion in debt.
Reynolds Group Holdings (Reynolds or the Company) is a leading manufacturer of consumer food and beverage packaging products. The Company is owned by Rank Group, a New Zealand-based investment firm controlled by Graeme Hart. The Company has grown rapidly over the last three years via debt-financed acquisitions.
Reynolds did $13.7 billion of revenue and $2.5 billion of EBITDA for PF LTM 9/30/11. The Company operates through six segments:
- SIG manufactures aseptic carton packaging systems for beverage and liquid food products, primarily in Europe and Asia - Evergreen manufactures fresh carton packaging for beverage products and liquid packaging board (LPB), primarily in North America - Closures manufactures plastic beverage caps and closures, primarily for soft drinks, bottled waters and other beverage products - Reynolds Consumer Products manufacturers aluminum foil, wraps, waste bags, food storage bags and disposable cookware - Pactiv manufacturers food packaging products including tableware, takeout containers, foam trays and cups - Graham Packaging manufactures molded plastic containers for food and beverage products and other household products
In September 2011, Reynolds purchased Graham Packaging for $4.4 billion (8.1x LTM EBITDA of $546 million). Reynolds financed the transaction by issuing / assuming an additional ~$5 billion in debt. Pro forma for the acquisition, Reynolds is levered approximately 7.0x the pre-synergy LTM EBITDA of $2.5 billion. Management has stated a desire to move towards 5.0x leverage in the near-term, but noted that they will not delever past 4.0x without more acquisitions.
Recommendation: This credit is fundamentally strong. The portfolio of businesses have leading market positions, stable end-markets and have demonstrated consistently high margins in challenging operating environments.
Buy 2014 Graham Packaging Senior Subordinated Notes: At 102.0, these Notes offer a yield to call of 7-9% (unless called in Q1 2012). Graham is not a guarantor of any other Reynolds debt and these Notes are likely to be called in 2012. Buy 2017 Senior Subordinated Notes: At 83.5, these Notes offer a yield of 13.9% for playing near the bottom of the capital structure. This debt is effectively senior to the Pactiv debt in a restructuring, so effective leverage is 6.5x face EBITDA. Buy 2016 Euro-Denominated Senior Secured Notes: At 105.1, these Notes offer a yield of 6.5% for face leverage of 4.2x. Pass on Pactiv Notes: These Notes have been stripped of guarantees and offer de minimis recovery in a restructuring.
- Stable end markets and broad product offering - High, stable margins - Strong brands (Reynolds and Hefty have 90%+ and 70%+ brand awareness) - Leading market position #1 or #2 across all product lines - Recurring revenue with long-term contracts at SIG, Closures, Evergreen and Foodservice - Barriers to entry: sole packaging provider for many customers with on-site PP&E
- High total leverage (7.1x pre-synergy EBITDA) - Continued integration story; acquisitions likely to continue - Foreign assets and foreign borrowers (though excluding Graham ~96% of assets are guarantors) - Highly unionized labor force - Consolidation among customers provides buying power - Despite hedging and pricing pass-throughs, vulnerable to raw material cost swings (SIG and Reynolds Consumer) - New competitor (Greatview) threatening duopoly status of aseptic packaging business Reynolds Group Holdings (Issuer of Financial Statements) BP I BP II (Debt Guaranteed by Operating Subs) 2017 Senior Unsecured Notes (480MM) 2017 Senior Subordinated Notes (420MM) Graeme Hart Reynolds Group Holdings Inc. Co-borrower under credit facility Closures SIG Graham 2017 Graham Senior Unsecured Notes 2018 Graham Senior Unsecured Notes 2014 Graham Senior Subordinated Notes Pactiv 2012 Pactiv Notes 2017 Pactiv Notes 2018 Pactiv Notes 2025 Pactiv Notes 2027 Pactiv Notes Reynolds Group Issuer 2016 Senior Secured Notes 2016 Senior Secured Notes (450MM) 2019 New Senior Secured Notes 2019 Senior Secured Notes 2021 Senior Secured Notes 2016 Senior Unsecured Notes (450MM) 2018 Senior Unsecured Notes 2019 Senior Unsecured Notes 2019 New Senior Unsecured Notes BP III Evergreen Reynolds Consumer Products Operating Entity Senior Secured Intercompany Loan Intercompany Loan Intercompany Loan Co-borrower under credit facility
ACQUISITION HISTORY
The Companys acquisition timeline is provided below:
History notes: Reynolds Consumer / Closures: Former Alcoa businesses. Consumer group has roots in Reynolds Metals Company. SIG: Swiss company that also manufactured firearms and railway cars before divesting those businesses in 2000. Graham Packaging: Roots in plastic packaging. Acquired Liquid Container in September 2010. Evergreen: Former International Paper business. Acquired by Graeme Hart through purchase of Carter Holt Harvey. Pactiv: Spun-off from Tenneco (auto parts) in 1999.
COMPANY OVERVIEW
Adjusted EBITDA by Segment
Revenue by Geography
SIG
SIG is a leading manufacturer of aseptic carton packaging systems for both beverage and liquid food products. Aseptic carton packaging (most prevalent in Europe and Asia) is designed to allow beverages or liquid food to be stored for extended periods of time without refrigeration. SIG supplies complete aseptic carton packaging systems, which include aseptic filling machines, aseptic cartons, spouts, caps and closures. SIG holds the number two market position in the global aseptic beverage carton market after Tetra Pak. evenye Revenue by Geography
Multiple Assets Seller Closed TEV Sales EBITDA Margin Sales EBITDA SIG Public Shareholders 5/11/07 $2,857 $2,255 $327 14.5% 1.3x 8.7x Closures Rank Group 11/5/09 1,223 856 148 17.3% 1.4x 8.3x Reynolds Consumer Rank Group 11/5/09 1,800 1,216 280 23.1% 1.5x 6.4x Evergreen Carter Holt Harvey 5/4/10 1,522 1,429 167 11.7% 1.1x 9.1x Pactiv Foodservice Public Shareholders 11/16/10 6,011 3,443 712 20.7% 1.7x 8.4x Graham Packaging Public Shareholders 9/8/11 4,423 2,887 546 18.9% 1.5x 8.1x Reynolds Consumer Products 22% Graham Packaging 22% Pactiv Foodservice 20% SIG 19% Evergreen 9% Closures 8% North America 76% Europe 14% Asia 6% South America 3% Other 1% Europe (ex. Germany) 41% Germany 17% Asia (excl. China) 15% China 11% Middle East 7% North America 5% South America 4%
The market is an effective duopoly with Tetra Pak and SIG being the only two major sellers of aseptic carton filling systems. Tetra Pak is significantly larger than SIG and had an installed filling machine base of ~9,000 machines vs. just 1,000 for SIG. Tetra Pak generates more than 50% of its revenue from emerging markets and is very strong in Asia. Recently, a new Chinese competitor Greatview began selling Tetra Pak cartons. They have a ~15% market share in China and are building a plant in Germany that will be complete in ~2 years. Greatview competes in the low end of the market (they dont have closure cartons). Greatview has PE-backing from Bain and CDH, and is run by former executives of Tetra Pak in China.
The aseptic market is ~8.0x the size of the fresh market globally and faces minimal threats due to lack of a cold distribution network in emerging economies. Cold distribution networks are unique to North America and parts of Western Europe.
SIGs business model is based on providing aseptic carton packaging filling machines combined with multi-year aseptic carton supply and service contracts. Aseptic cartons are sold to the customer in the form of a sleeve designed to be used exclusively with SIGs aseptic filling machines.
The packaging material for aseptic carton sleeves is composed of a laminate of cartonboard, resin and aluminum. SIG does not have automatic price pass-throughs built into its contracts because of the tendency of customers use the cartons of the low-cost provider. Management was expecting a second price increase from Tetra Pak in 2011 to catch up with resin price increases, but they never went through with it.
Revenue was at SIG was up 9.5% q-o-q for Q3 2011. Some of this growth was due to the strengthening of the Euro against the dollar. Volumes have been an issue as Western European markets continue to substitute PET containers for cartons. The business continues to diversify out of Europe. In 2007, SIG had 85%+ of its revenue from Europe. Today this is less than 60% led by strong growth in China, South America and the Middle East. Long-term Europe is likely to be flat or slightly down.
Evergreen
Evergreen is a vertically integrated manufacturer of carton packaging for beverage products (primarily juice and milk). Evergreen is the leading global supplier of fresh beverage cartons and fresh liquid packaging board. Fresh carton packaging is predominant in North America and is designed for beverages that require a cold-chain distribution system. Evergreen produces its own liquid packaging board at its mills in Arkansas and North Carolina. Evergreen also produces groundwood (primarily for catalogs / magazines) and uncoated freesheet primarily for envelope, specialty and offset printing paper.
Revenue by Product
Revenue by Geography
Evergreen sells filling machines as well as the carton sleeves to produce and fill fresh carton packaging. Evergreen is the largest seller of both liquid packaging board and fresh carton packaging globally. The fresh carton market is fairly consolidated and Evergreen has an estimated 70% market share. The Companys traditional market is North America, but is also #1 in China, #1 in South Korea and #2 in Taiwan. Plastic packaging solutions, such as those produced by Graham Packaging, can be a substitute for fresh carton packaging. Competes against Elopak and Tetra Pak.
Evergreen operates two integrated pulp and paper mills and 14 sleeve production plants. The production of liquid packaging board facilitates vertical integration. Evergreen outsources the production of spouts and caps to the Closures segment.
Revenue was up 2.2% Evergreen q-o-q for Q3 2011. Growth was due to higher pricing offset by volume decreases. Margins have been up because of increases in UFS and groundwood prices. The fresh carton segment shed some market share to plastic in North America during 2011.
Reynolds Consumer Products
Reynolds Consumer manufactures consumer products such as foil, wraps, waste bags, food storage bags, and disposable tableware. Many of its products are sold under the brand names Reynolds and Hefty. The business operates primarily in North America and distributes its products through grocery stores, drug stores and big-box retailers.
Carton Packaging 42% Board 26% Uncoated Freesheet 16% Coated Groundwood 10% Spouts 3% Filling Machines 3% North America 76% Asia 12% Latin America 7% Europe 4% Other 1%
Revenue by Product
Revenue by Geography
The Companys product portfolio is segmented into Waste & Storage, Cooking and Tableware. The Company has a #1 or #2 market position in most of its product segments. The Company also sells some store-branded products.
Reynolds principal raw materials are aluminum and plastic resin. The business typically has one-year contracts with resin suppliers and multi- year contracts with aluminum suppliers. The business operates 12 manufacturing plants, all in the United States and shares 28 manufacturing plants with Pactiv Foodservice.
Reynolds consumer was up 0.2% q-o-q for Q3 2011 (PF for the addition of Hefty). Volumes were down but were offset by increases in raw material cost pass-throughs in most product lines. The segment is anticipated to see some revenue synergies going forward from the foodservice distribution network. Segment was recently chosen by Walmart to be a preferred supplier which will provide strong shelf space at Walmart.
Pactiv Foodservice
Pactiv manufactures foodservice and food packaging products including tableware, takeout service containers, foam trays and cups. The Company distributes its products through foodservice distributors, food processors and supermarket distributors. Additionally, the Company manufactures laminated products for the tobacco, telecommunications and construction industries.
Revenue by Product
Revenue by Geography
According to management, 80% of Pactivs products have a #1 market share. The business differentiates itself through the breadth and depth of the product offering. Management claims it takes six competitors to match the offering of one truck from Reynolds because of the product variety.
Pactiv operates 25 manufacturing plants in North America and three in Europe and has two joint ventures in China. Pactiv shares 28 manufacturing plants with Reynolds Consumer Products. The Company anticipates closing more facilities in 2012 and closed 7 plants and eliminated 1,000 employees in 2011.
Revenue was up 21.1% q-o-q for Q3 2011. Most of this increase was driven by the acquisition of Dopaco. Management reported higher pricing (due to resin pass-throughs) and slightly lower volumes due to product divestitures. The pricing pass-throughs in this segment have a ~3 month lag. If resin prices stabilize it should translate into higher margins. The segment has realized $96 million of synergies through the end of the quarter with the run-rate of synergies of $168 million. These synergies were ahead of plan.
Waste / Storage 37% Cooking 30% Tableware 29% Other 4% United States 96% Asia 1% Middle East 1% Other 2% Clear Plastics 29% Foam 22% Tableware 17% Specialty Packaging 13% Paper 7% Aluminum 5% Other 7% United States 85% Canada 4% Mexico 4% Europe 5% Asia 2%
Closures
Closures manufactures plastic caps and closures for the carbonated soft drinks, non-carbonated soft drinks and bottled water segments of the global beverage market. Closures has a #1 global market share in plastic beverage caps and closures market. The Company also serves the liquid dairy, food, beer and liquor, pharmaceutical and automotive fluid markets. In addition to supplying the plastic caps and closures, the Company offers capping equipment. Closures has a 15% global market share and a 60% market share in North America.
Revenue by Product
Revenue by Geography
Closures operates 33 manufacturing plants.
Revenue was up 10.9% q-o-q for Q3 2011. The group benefited from higher volume, higher pricing and favorable currency movements. Closures reportedly took market share from competitor Rexam this year. Asia and Europe were relatively flat. One risk cited by management is that Coke is trying to produce closures in Australia as a test. Several years ago Pepsi attempted this but ultimately abandoned the idea. Going forward, growth is anticipated to come on the non-carbonated side of the business.
Graham Packaging
Graham manufactures blow molded plastic containers for branded consumer products. The Company has the #1 market share in North America for hot-fill juices, sports drinks, yogurt drinks, motor oil, liquid fabric care, dish detergents, hair care and skin care products. Many of the Companys largest customers have been customers for 20+ years. 90% of the Companys sales are in product categories where the Company has the #1 market position.
Revenue by Product
Revenue by Geography
Graham has approximately 100 plants worldwide, of which approximately one third are located on-site at customer facilities. This on-site capex makes it difficult for competitors to easily switch suppliers. 80% of the Companys products use proprietary technology. 100% of contracts have resin pass-throughs.
Revenue increased by 28.3% q-o-q for Q3 2011. Most of this was driven by acquisition of Liquid Container. Revenue was reportedly down pro forma for Liquid Container due to volume declines. The Company estimated $75 million in synergies for the Graham merger. $28 million had been achieved as of the end of December.
Soft Drinks 52% Water 14% Equipment 6% Food 4% Dairy 1% Other 23% North America 40% Asia 20% Europe 19% South America 18% Middle East 3% Food & Beverage 62% Houshold 18% Automotive Lubricants 13% Personal Care 7% North America 87% Europe 9% Rest of World 4%
The Company is anticipated to generate approximately $400 million in free cash flow in 2012. Reynolds has a $249 million Pactiv bond maturity and $200 million in amortization over the course of 2012. Reynolds may collapse the Graham structure and call the sub notes in order to avoid the amortization, however at the moment it does not have the cash to do so. I believe it is unlikely Reynolds will try to call the Graham debt in advance of the May working capital cycle. Given the size of the business and the extent of the foreign operations this business probably needs $200 million in cash on the balance sheet at any time.
Reynolds needs to fall approximately 25% short of its estimated PF EBITDA in order to be cash flow negative.
2017 2027 Notes trade at 12-15%. Pactiv is a co-borrower under Reynolds first lien credit agreement. With the exception of 4-5 principal manufacturing facilities (out of 50+ facilities total) the Pactiv assets are pledged to the first lien lenders. Reynolds Group operating subsidiaries are not guarantors of the Pactiv Notes. Pactivs pension is approximately $700 million underfunded and starting in 2013 the Company will need to pay $75 million per year (these pension claims would be pari with the Notes in a restructuring). Although this is a solid business with strong margins, in a restructuring these Notes are poorly positioned. They have been stripped of guarantees and offer the weakest recovery of any debt in the Reynolds structure. Buying the Pactiv notes is essentially a bet that the Company will not restructure through maturity / call.
BP II / Luxembourg II (Holdco) Debt
2016 Senior Unsecured and 2017 Senior Subordinated Notes trade at yields of 10.75% and 13.9%, respectively. Although these notes are structurally subordinated to unsecured debt held at Reynolds Group Lux, they benefit from an intercreditor agreement and are guaranteed by the operating subsidiaries on a senior subordinated and subordinated basis, respectively. BP I, which indirectly owns all of the operating subsidiaries pays interest to BP II to service this debt via an intercompany note. This debt has the benefit of being indirectly supported by the entire Reynolds operating structure (excluding Graham). These notes are euro denominated so they may offer less liquidity. Given that Reynolds has no other subordinated debt (excluding the Reynolds piece) it is surprising that the 2017 Notes trades more than 300 bps wide of the 2016 Notes. At almost 14%, the 2017 subordinated notes offer a strong yield for playing near the bottom of the capital structure. I believe this debt is covered comfortably by enterprise value. Once Reynolds collapses the Graham structure this debt will be levered 6.5x face EBITDA excluding synergies or 5.7x including synergies.
Graham Packaging Notes
2017 and 2018 Senior Unsecured Notes both yield 7.9%; the 2014 Senior Subordinated Notes yield 9.0% through maturity. Graham Packaging Notes do not benefit from any downstream or cross guarantees from other Reynolds operating entities. The only credit support Graham offers to the rest of Reynolds comes from a $2 billion first lien intercompany note with $200 million annual amortization plus cash flow sweeps. The remainder of Grahams RP basket is very tight (the only carveout is regular amortization hence the intercompany note). All-in, the Graham sub. notes are leveraged 4.9x EBITDA of $555 million (including the first lien intercompany note). 2017 and 2018 notes are probably not feasible to buy (less than $40 million outstanding after recent tender). 2014 Senior Subordinated notes are callable @101.646% and 100% starting October 15, 2012 (currently trading at 102). Despite trading above call prices, these notes offer yields in the 7-9% range depending on call timing. Given liquidity, I do not believe the Company will call these notes in advance of their working capital spike in May. They may also want to wait for the 2012 Pactiv Notes due in July 2012. I view these Notes as being attractive at 102.
Reynolds Group Issuer (Luxembourg) and Senior Secured Credit Facility
Secured Debt: Yields 6.2% to 7.5% for 4.2x pre-synergy EBITDA Unsecured Debt: Yields 8.8% to 9.7% for 6.0x pre-synergy EBITDA Holders get surprisingly little additional yield for owning long-dated debt given continued integration risk and interest rate risk The 2019 / 2021 holders may have to sit through 2-3 more mergers than 2016 holders and investors in those securities may be investing in a very different company. My favorite here are the 2016 Senior Secured Euro Notes yielding 6.5%
Call Date of Graham Subordinated Notes 1/15/12 4/15/12 7/15/12 10/15/12 1/15/13 4/15/13 Call Price 101.6% 101.6% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Purchase Price 102.0% Interest Received + Accrued 2.48% 4.94% 7.39% 9.88% 12.36% 14.79% Cash Flow -104.5% 106.6% 109.0% 109.9% 112.4% 114.8% IRR to Call 8.3% 9.0% 7.0% 7.5% 7.8% Interest Rate 9.875% Last Interest Payment 10/15/11