Summary of Macroeconomic Performance of Bangladesh: through the

four decades of Independence

Author: Mahtab Uddin
(Executive Member, ESC)
Department of Economics,
University of Dhaka

Co-author: Nabila Hasan
(General Member, ESC)
Department of Economics,
University of Dhaka

Out line
1. Introduction
2. Growth Performance
2.1 GDP growth rate
2.2 Per capita GDP growth
2.3 Savings Investment performance
2.4 Inflation
3. Trends in External sectors
3.1 Export Performance
3.2 Import Performance
3.3 Workers remittance
4. Performance in terms of HDI and poverty reduction
4.1 Poverty reduction
4.2 Inequality
4.3 HDI performance
5. General analysis
6. Conclusion
1. Introduction:
40 years has gone away, and Bangladesh, the darling daughter of the nature is just going to
observe the 41
st
year of independence from the tyranny of Pakistani obsessions. Yet, standing at
the edge of fourth decade we still have our question in our mind Have we achieved the goals
those we determined to be achieved at the time of Independence? If not, then why? Our search
is for seeking out the answers from the view of its macroeconomic performances. The papers are
prepared in the search of the question that, four decades has gone away but what was our
economic performance throughout this four decades? Obstacles in the path of economic
development in this course of time are tried to be found out. Hence, the purpose of the papers is
to highlight the past macroeconomic performances, its obstacles and to derive the conclusion
about our ultimate strategies.

















Overall Macroeconomic Performance:
Bangladesh emerged from its war of independence desperately poor, overpopulated, and reeling
from overwhelming war damage to its institutional and physical capital. It was not until 1978/79
that per capita income had recovered to its pre-independence level. The economy was ravaged by
acute food shortages and famines during the early years. According to some authors, Bangladesh
was designated as a test case for development, and Henry Kissinger called it an international
basket case.
More than 40 years later, doubts and doubters have been proven wrong. With sustained growth
in food production and a good record of disaster management, famines have become a
phenomenon of the past. Bangladeshs per capita GDP has more than doubled since 1975. Life
expectancy has risen from 50 to 63 years; population growth rates of 3 percent a year have been
halved, child mortality rates of 240 per 1,000 births have been cut by 70 percent, literacy has
more than doubled, and the country has achieved gender parity in primary and secondary
schools. However, most of these gains have taken place since the early 1990s, when the
introduction of wide-ranging economic reforms coincided with transition to democracy.
Bangladesh had struggled with its economic performance throughout the first two decades of
Independence. Its only 1990s since when we were finally able to achieve better economic
performances. In post 2000 Bangladesh became capable of earning a moderate growth rate of
above 6% per annum; the dependency on foreign aid has decreased sharply; earnings from
exports and foreign remittances has been a major component of GDP since the millennium.
2. Growth Performance:
In terms of growth of GDP, Bangladesh economy did not have much to boast about during the
1970s and the 1980s, but achieved acceleration in growth during the 1990s and the 2000s. While
the annual average growth during the 1980s was less than 4 per cent, it exceeded 4 per cent in the
early 1990s and crossed the 5 percent mark during the second half of that decade. Since 2004,
annual rate of GDP growth has been over 6 per cent. But that trend got reversed in 2008-09 and
2009-10 - first due to a series of natural calamities and then due to the adverse effects of the
global economic crisis of 2008-09. However, the potential of the economy of Bangladesh to
achieve GDP growth of over 7 per cent is widely recognized.
Table: Annual trend growth rates:
Year Real GDP growth rate
1972 75 6.5%
1976 80 3.76%
1981 85 3.72%
1986 90 3.74%
1991 95 4.49%
1996 00 5.29%
2001 05 5.4%
2006 11 6.21%
Source: BBS, WB, IMF

Bangladesh was entrapped at a very low level of growth rate by less than 4% throughout
the first two decades of independence. The average trend growth of 1972-75 was high
enough like 6.5% due to a very low economic base.
In the decades of 90s, Bangladesh crossed the barrier of low rate of growth below 4%
for the first time and within the mid 90s it crossed 5% annual GDP growth rate.
Since 1995, the GDP growth rate has never been gone very low like the first two decades
of Independence.
From 2004, Bangladesh has been enjoying a growth rate above 6% annually. In FY 2010-
2011 the growth rate was 6.7% and the government is expecting a growth rate around 7%
in the current fiscal year.

Constraints:
Commonly held belief is that Bangladesh could reach even a higher growth trajectory provided
the growth constraints be kept to a minimum. The major constraints include:
poor governance
rampant corruption
infrastructural bottlenecks (electricity, energy shortage, poor sea and airport management,
crowded roads)
underdeveloped financial markets,
inefficient bureaucracy
failure to attract FDI
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
1972 75 1976 80 1981 85 1986 90 1991 95 1996 00 2001 05 2006 11
Avg. Trend GDP Growth rate
Avg. Trend GDP Growth rate
2.1 Per capita GDP:
Bangladeshs per capita GDP has more than doubled since 1975. The growth of per capita GDP
had been slow in the 1980s, at an annual average of 1.6 percent a year, but it accelerated to 3
percent in the 1990s, and to about 4 percent more recently. The acceleration resulted partly from
a slowdown in population growth but also from a sustained increase in GDP growth, which
averaged 3.7 percent annually during the 1980s, 4.8 percent during the 1990s, and 5.7 percent in
the post 2000. However, the present GDP growth rate is vibrating around more than 6% which
has incorporated the recent growth in per-capita GDP significantly.
Table: Per Capita GDP Growth rate at constant prices
Year Annual growth rate of GDP Annual Per capita GDP
growth rate
1972-73 7.6 4.1
1973-80 3.9 1.3
1980-85 3.8 1.4
1985-90 4.0 2.1
1990-91 3.4 1.5
1991-92 4.2 2.3
1992-93 4.5 2.6
1993-94 4.2 2.6
1994-95 4.4 2.6
1995-96 5.4 3.6
1996-97 5.9 4.1
1997-98 5.7 3.9
1998-99 5.2 3.4
1999-00 5.94 4.5
2000-01 5.27 3.86
2001-02 4.42 2.92
2002-03 5.26 3.76
2003-04 6.27 4.77
2004-05 5.96 4.47
2005-06 6.63 5.14
2006-07 6.43 4.95
2007-08 6.19 4.71
2008-09 5.88 4.4
2009-10 5.83 4.35
Source: Akbar Ali Khan. Friendly fires, Humpty Dumpty Disorder and other Essays.

Figure: GDP per capita (Constant prices, National Currency)
Source: BBS, IMF, Economy watch, CIA world fact book.
It is clear from the above table and the figure that, the per capita GDP had an
insignificant increment during the first two decades of independence.
However, it started upward moving since the 1990s with the beginning of democratic
government in Bangladesh. Along with a decline in the country's population growth, the
acceleration of GDP growth resulted in a substantial increase in the growth of the
country's per capita income.
While the annual per capita GDP growth was less than 3 per cent per annum till the mid-
1990s, it crossed 4 per cent during 2000-09. For a country that was once dubbed as an
international basket case, this is no mean achievement.
2. 2 Sectoral GDP growth rates:
Despite satisfactory rates of economic growth and macroeconomic performance achieved by the
economy of Bangladesh over a period of time, a few points of concern remain. Growth in
agriculture has suffered from instability in the past. It is only in recent years that growth in this
sector appears to have stabilized and has become satisfactory. Growth in manufacturing picked
up in the early part of 2000s and achieved a peak of nearly 10 per cent per annum in 2006. But
after that it has declined and settled to a little over 6 per cent per annum. This trend is
disconcerting because high growth of manufacturing is essential from the point of view of
achieving a transformation in the structure of economy that would enable transfer of labor from
low productivity agriculture to sectors with higher productivity and earnings. In countries of East
and South East Asia (e.g., South Korea and Malaysia) that succeeded in this regard,
manufacturing industries grew at approximately double the growth of GDP. In order to achieve
that pattern of growth, manufacturing industries in Bangladesh would need to grow at annual
rates of about 12 per cent per annum. Although Bangladesh has witnessed the emergence of
some new industries other than ready- made garments (e.g., ceramics and shipbuilding), the size
of these sectors are still too little to make a real difference. Currently, structural change in
Bangladesh appears to be driven more by the service sector.
Table: Sectoral Growth rates:
(Annual average in percentage; in constant 1995/96 producer prices)
Sector 1980/81

1984/85
1985/86

1989/90
1990/91

1994/95
1995/96

1999/00
2000/01

2005/06
2006/07

2010/11
Agriculture
Crop
production
Fisheries
Others
2.68

2.69
3.06
2.40

2.40

2.69
1.64
2.21

1.55

-0.43
7.86
2.53

4.89

3.86
8.56
3.30

3.3

2.7
1.3
3.9
4.4

4.45
4.4
3.8
Industry
(Manufacturing)
5.70

5.80


7.47

6.44

7.8 7.92
Services 3.83 3.58

4.14

4.81

5.7 6.5
GDP 3.72 3.74 4.15 5.23 5.4 6.21
Source: BBS
Sectoral shares in GDP:

Fig: Sectoral compositions of GDP
Fig: Trend of Structural Transformation of Broad sectoral shares in Real GDP
Source: BBS, Ministry of Finance
In the early beginning of the nation, Agriculture was the Dominant and prominent sector
comprising the major share in the GDP. However, that trend gets reversed from the
1990s.
Throughout the 1970s and 80s, agriculture comprised more than 40% of the GDP. In the
early 90s (1989/90) Agricultural sector comprised only 29.50% of total GDP which later
on downed to 24.50% in 1999/00. In 2011 Agriculture has a share in GDP of less than
16%.
In the contrary, the share of Industrial sector has not risen significantly. It comprises less
than 30% of total GDP. Within this sector, manufacturing sector constitutes 18% of total
GDP.
However, the growth of tertiary sector, i.e. service sector has been remarkable during the
whole period. The largest sector of the economy is the service sector, representing about
half of GDP. Its share has remained relatively stable over time, representing about 46%
of GDP in the early seventies and has remained within the range of 48% to 50% since
2011.

2. 3 Savings Investment Performance:
Acceleration in economic growth in Bangladesh was possible due to acceleration in the rate of
investment as well as domestic savings. During the entire decades of the 1970s and 1980s,
domestic savings and investment stagnated at low levels. During 1995-96 to 2009, domestic
savings increased from 14.9 per cent of GDP to 20.1 per cent. Investment rate (as percentage of
GDP) increased from nearly 20 per cent to 24 per cent. Despite this increase, investment rate
remains lower than in other South Asian countries except Pakistan.

Source: BBS, IMF, see appendix Table 1.
Bangladesh had a low level of savings and investment rate as percentage of GDP
throughout the 1980s. During the decades of 80s, these rates were always around 16 17
per cent of GDP.
Investment remained stagnated until the 1980s but started picking up since early 1990s,
mainly attributable to the openness of economy and the introduction of a liberal policy
environment; creating increased opportunities for private investment.
However, both savings and investment have consistently increased in the 1990s. Gross
national savings increased from 18% in 1989/90 to about 23% of GDP in 1999/00.
Further within the next decade, Gross national savings has reached to 30% of total GDP
in 2010.
Meanwhile, the investment GDP ratio on the other hand increased from 17% in 1989/90
to 22% in 1999/00. The investment-to-GDP ratio during 2006-2008 periods stood at
around 24% of GDP, but it should in the neighborhood of 30% in order for the economy
to reach two-digit growth trajectory.

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Total investment (as percentage of GDP) Gross national savings (as percentage of GDP)
Pattern of components of Investment:


Figure: Investment components(1980-2008).
Source: BBS, Ministry of Finance
The above Figure shows that:
Investment remained stagnated during the eighties. It started picking up from the early
nineties backed by private investment while there was a declining trend in public
investment.
While the shift in investment is conducive for a private sector-led growth, public sector
investment for infrastructure and human capital is critical for sustaining economic growth
and putting Bangladesh economy on a higher growth path. To achieve double-digit
growth, the investment-to- GDP ratio needs to be increased to about 30% of GDP.
2.4 Inflation:


Source: BBS. Bangladesh Bank. IMF. See appendix 9 for details.
During the 80s, inflation rate was almost always in the region of double digits.
Inflation rate fell sharply in the early 90s.
Although there were fluctuations in the rate of inflation, it never touched the double digit
except the years of flood in 1998 and SIDR in 2007. The inflation of 2007 was mainly
due to the adverse supply shock.
Most recently, the inflation rate has climbed up to the double digit region due to the huge
increase in the domestic demand of fuels for generating electricity in quick rental plants.
3. Trends in External Sector:
External sector comprises of all the sectors those are related to foreign transactions. Hence, it
includes Imports, Exports, Foreign aid, FDI, overseas wage earners remittance etc. There has
been a significant change in the pattern and components of this sector.
Share of foreign trade in the GDP :
During the first two decades of Independence, the share of foreign trade (exports and
imports) in GDP was always within the bracket of 20%. In 1977-78 the share of foreign
trade in GDP was around 18% which a decade after remained almost the same (1989/90
17.4% of GDP).
However, during the 1990s economic reforms and associated policies significantly
affected the external sector in Bangladesh. The share of foreign trade in GDP increased
from 17% in 1989/90 to 30% in 1999/00. The economy became more integrated with the
global economy and the trend continued till the post 2000.
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Inflation (end of period consumer prices)
Percent change
Inflation (end of period consumer prices) Percent change
Since 2005 the share of foreign trade in GDP always remains over 40 per cent. In
2010/11 the share was 44% of the GDP.
Trade deficit:



In the decades of 70s and 80s, the trade deficit always remained above 8 to 10 % of the
GDP.
The trade deficit in the 1990s was lower than the previous decade which was on and
around 6%.
In post 2000 period, the trade deficit has been always around 5% of the GDP.

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Export (as % of GDP)
Import (as % of GDP)
Trade Deficit (as % of GDP)
Current Account Balance:

In the pre 2000 era of Bangladesh, it always had a negative current account balance.
In the first two decades of Independence the deficit in current account balance remained
around 5% of the GDP.
In the decades of 90s it was brought down to below 2% per year.
However, it is post 2000 period from when Bangladesh was able to enjoy a positive
current account balance. In 2009/10 current account balance stood 4% surplus of the total
GDP.
The major backbone behind this achievement was the higher high growth rate of foreign
remittance of overseas Bangladeshi expatriates.
See appendix, Table 3 for details.






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Figure: Current Account Balance
(as % of GDP)
Current account Balance (as % of GDP)
3.1 Export Performance:



Figure: Average Growth of Export (5 years average)
Source: EPB
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Annual Growth of Export Earnings
Annual percentage change
of Export Earnings
7
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1981-85 1985-90 1991-95 1996-00 2000-05 2005-08 2008-11
Average Growth of Export

Compound change
The growth in exports has fluctuated considerably from an average low of 7% in 1981-85
periods to an average high of in excess of 17% in 1991-1995 and 2006-2008 periods.
Before 90s the average growth rate was below 10% per annum. In 1991-95 periods the
average growth rate was high enough like 17% per annum on an average which slowed
down to 8-15% per year in the periods of 1995-05.
In the post 2005 period the average growth rate of export has gone above 17% per year
on average.
See appendix Table 4 for details.
Sectoral change in Export:
The major exported products of Bangladesh are mainly of two broad categories namely:
a) Primary Commodities: It includes-
1. Raw Jute. 2. Tea. 3. Frozen food. 4. Agricultural products. 5. Other primary commodities.
b) Manufactured goods: It includes-
6. Jute goods. 7. Leather. 8. Naphtha, furnace oil and bitumen. 9. Readymade garments. 10.
Knitwear. 11. Chemical products. 12. Shoe. 13. Handicrafts. 14. Engineering products. 15. Other
mfg. products
However, there has been a valiant change in the pattern of Export components.

Source: M Hossain & A. R Khan, The Strategy of Development in Bangladesh. EPB.
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Figure: Change in sectoral shares of Export
from 1972 2011
Share of Primary commodities Share of Manufactured commodities
At the beginning, around 40% of the total exported goods and commodities were primary
goods. The trend in export did not change much until the mid 80s.
At the end of 80s, the share of primary goods in export started to fall and it fall below
10% at the end of 90s. Since then it never crept outside a share of 5 to 8% of total export.
Since, 1998, the share of manufactured goods has been more than 90% of total export.
See Appendix Table 5 for more details.
Product wise structural change:

Raw Jute
32%
Jute Goods
55%
Leather
5%
Frozen Foods
2%
Tea
4%
Others
2%
RMG
0%
Figure: Export by Major Products During
1972-73
Jute Goods
0%
Raw Jute
1%
Frozen Foods
3%
Woven Garments
36%
knitwear
39%
Leather
2%
Tea
0%
Others
19%
Figure: Export by major products During
2009-10
From the above two charts, we can conclude that:
In 1970s, raw jute and jute goods comprise 89% of the total export. In 2009-10, it
dropped to less than 2% of the total export.
Woven Garments (52%) and Knitwear (9%) became the main export item during 1992-
93. This constitutes 61% of the total export.
In 2009-10, Woven Garments and Knitwear comprise 75% of the total export. Of which
Woven Garments accounted for 36% and Knitwear 39% of the total export.
Bangladesh has used exchange rate depreciation as an export promotion tool actively in
the 1990s. With reforms taking the country from an administered to a more market
determined exchange rate regime, a policy of creeping devaluation has been pursued to
maintain exchange rate flexibility and export competitiveness.
3.3 Import Performance:
There has been significant change in the trends and patterns of imports.
Trends in import:

Source: Bangladesh Bank, Ministry of Finance
From the above figure, it is seen that:
Over the 80s and 90s the average growth rate of Imports was always on and around of
7% per annum.
7.27
9.19
7.5
9.44
11.53
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1983/84-89/90 1990/91-94/95 1995/96-99/00 2000/01-04/05 2005/06-09/10
Figure: Compound Growth Rates (5 years
average)
Compound Growth Rates (5
years average)
However, in the post 2000 period, the average growth rate of imports tends to increase
than the previous three decades.
In 2004/05 the average annual growth rate reaches 9.5% while in 2009/10 it reaches at
11.5% per annum.
See appendix Table 6 for details.
Change in the Pattern of Imported Goods:
Over the period of time, there has been a significant change in the composition of imported
goods. The Imported goods of Bangladesh are classified in five major categories, namely:
1) Major Primary Goods: Rice, Wheat, Oil Seeds ,Crude Petroleum, Cotton.
2) Major Industrial Goods: Edible Oil, Petroleum Products (Refined), Fertilizer, Clinker,
Staple Fiber, Cotton Yarn
3) Capital Machinery
4) Other Products (Excluding EPZ)


Source: Bangladesh Bank, MoF
Share of imports of capital machinery to total imports has fallen significant over the
1984-85 to 2007-08 periods from a high of 35.6% in 1991-92 to 3.7% in 1999-00. Since
then it has not been over 10% of total imports.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Figure: Change in Import composition from
1974 - 2010
Major Primary Goods (% share) Major Industrial Goods (% share)
Capital Machinery (% share) Other products (as % share)
The share of major primary goods constituted more than 40% in the early decades of
70s. It remained high enough (around 30%) till the mid of 80s. After then it started to fall
and till now it is below 15% of total imports. The main cause behind it is the
Bangladeshs achievement of food security since 1990s.
The share of major industrial goods has been consistent throughout the decades. It was
always within 15% to 20% contribution bracket.
In contrast, the share of other products (mainly textile fabrics, pharmaceutical raw
materials, machinery for miscellaneous industry) in total import was 29% in 1973-74 and
25.9% in 1984-85. However, the share of other products started to climb up from the
decades of 90s. In 1989/90 it accounted for 35% of total imports while a decade later it
reached to 70% in 1999-00. In 2009-10, this accounted for 63.29% of total import. In
fact, in post 2000 period, the share of other products has an average share of more than
60% of the total imports.
See Appendix Table 7 for details.
3.3 Workers remittance:
1. Manpower export by Bangladesh:

Before 1990s, the average rate of manpower export was less than .80 lakh per year.
Since 1990s, the average rate of manpower export has climbed to more than 2 lakh
expatriates per year which is near about three fold than the previous decade.
There was a dramatic increase in the number of expatriate workers since 2005, rising
from about 2.50 lakh to 8.75 lakh. However, the impact of the global financial crisis led
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Figure: Manpower Export by Bangladesh
Number of expatriates (in
'000')
to a decline in the huge jump of the manpower export. But, it is still more than 4 lakh per
year which is 5 fold than the decades of 80s and 2 fold than the decades of 90s.
The close down of the outsourcing industries in Singapore and the outburst of real estate
boom in United Arab Emirates may lead to shrink the manpower export from
Bangladesh.
The non-inclusion of Bangladesh in the list of 12 outsourcing countries of Malaysia and
fixing the ceiling of manpower import from Bangladesh up to 5.3 lacs has been acting as
a barrier to the enhancement of manpower export over there.
To counter this, Bangladesh should explore the new opportunities in different countries
like Libya, Korea, Russia and East European Countries to continue the momentum of its
manpower export growth.
Since 2009 the export of manpower in the Middle East has declined remarkably. The
reasons behind it are Global recession, anarchy in many Arab countries, war in Libya etc.
Hence, Bangladesh has to look for new markets in other regions as well as she will have
to negotiate with the man power importing countries regarding it.

2. Trend of Foreign remittance:

In the pre 90s decades the annually received foreign remittance was lower than US$ 800
million a year.
From 1993 Bangladesh has been enjoying a inward foreign remittance of an amount over
US $1000 million each year.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1
9
7
5
-
7
6
1
9
7
7
-
7
8
1
9
7
9
-
8
0
1
9
8
1
-
8
2
1
9
8
3
-
8
4
1
9
8
5
-
8
6
1
9
8
7
-
8
8
1
9
8
9
-
9
0
1
9
9
1
-
9
2
1
9
9
3
-
9
4
1
9
9
5
-
9
6
1
9
9
7
-
9
8
1
9
9
9
-
0
0
2
0
0
1
-
0
2
2
0
0
3
-
0
4
2
0
0
5
-
0
6
2
0
0
7
-
0
8
2
0
0
9
-
1
0
Figure: Foreign Remittance (in Million US $)
Remittance (in Million US $)
In the post 2000 period, foreign remittance became more vibrant than any time before. In
2001/02 Bangladesh received US $2501 million which was 32% higher than the previous
year (2000/01 US$ 1882 million). However, the pace of did not rest there. Inward foreign
remittance crossed US$ 3062 million in the next year achieving a growth rate of more
than 18%.
In 2009/10 the annual received foreign remittance passed over US$ 10987 million which
is 129% higher than the foreign remittance received in 2005/06 (US$ 4802 million).
See appendix Table 8 for details.
4. Poverty reduction and human development:
Economic growth and per capita income provide only part of the story about success on the
economic front. High rate of economic growth is only a means to the important goals of reducing
poverty, improving conditions of living of the people in general and achieving shared prosperity.
In that context, it would be important to examine the degree of success in reducing poverty and
achieving other Millennium Development Goals. Some relevant data are presented in the Tables.

4. 1 Poverty Reduction:


Source: HIES, BBS. Bangladesh Poverty Assessment, WB. See Appendix Table 1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1983-84 1985-86 1988-89 1991-92 1995-96 2000 2005 2011
Figure: Trend of Upper Poverty Line From
1983 - 2010
National Rural Urban
Trends in poverty reduction:
As for the fight against poverty in Bangladesh, 1970s and 1980s may be regarded as lost
decades because the incidence of poverty (the proportion of people living below a
poverty line that is defined in terms of a level of income needed to meet certain basic
needs of life) actually increased during the first decade and fluctuated in the second*.
The reason behind the increase in the level of poverty in the early 70s is Bangladesh was
just independent at that time which cost not only a huge bloodshed but also a huge
destruction in the economy.
Only in the 1990s, poverty started to decline on a sustained basis and came down from
nearly 59 per cent in 1991-92 to 49 per cent in 2000 and 40 per cent in 2005.
Poverty has declined further from 40 per cent in 2005 to 31.5 per cent in 2010
The rural poverty rate has been always higher than the national or urban poverty rates
throughout the decades.

Reasons behind the decrease of rate of poverty:
The primary contributing factor was robust and stable economic growth along with no
worsening of inequality. Respectable GDP growth that started at the beginning of the
1990s continued into the new millennium and averaged above 5 percent annually
between 2000 and 2005.
The safety net programs, the food for work programs during the lean seasons and the
micro credits played a valiant role in reducing hardcore poverty level.
Growth in consumption, fueled by robust GDP growth, was the dominant force in
reducing poverty. Real per capita consumption expenditure from HIES increased at an
average annual rate of 2.3 percent, with a higher increase for rural than urban areas.
The reduction in consumption poverty was also accompanied by impressive gains in
other indicators of wellbeing. For example, Bangladesh is on course to meet the year
2015 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for infant and child mortality and has
already met the MDG of gender parity in primary and secondary schooling. Impressive
improvements in access sanitation and the quality of housing since 2000, particularly in
rural areas, reflect broad-based gains in standard of living for the poor.
However, given the sharp increases in prices of food grains during 2007-08 and the adverse
effect of the global economic crisis during 2008-09, the relationship between economic growth
and poverty reduction may not have remained unchanged. One exercise by the World Bank
suggested that the shocks mentioned above could have reduced the decline in the incidence of
poverty by two percentage points.

4.2 Inequality:
Table: Gini Coefficient of Income inequality (1963 - 2010)
Year National Rural Urban
1963-64 .41 .33 .36
1973-74 .38 .36 .36
1981-82 .41 .36 .39
1983-84 .37 .35 .35
1995-96 .44 .36 .50
2000 .451 .393 .497
2005 .467 .428 .497
2010 .458 .431 .452
Source: HIES, BBS, Banglapedia.
An important area of concern is the rise in inequality in the distribution of income. While this
issue is important from the point of view of achieving shared and inclusive growth, it needs to be
remembered that a rise in income inequality reduces the effectiveness of economic growth in
reducing poverty. In Bangladesh, there has been an increase in the degree of inequality in income
distribution from the mid-1980s. While the rise was gradual till the early 1990s, it has become
faster since then.
In 2010, the gini coefficient of income inequality was .458 at the national level.
The income inequality is more severe in the urban areas than in the rural areas ever since
1990s.
In 2010 the gini coefficient of income inequality was .431 for rural areas where as it was
.452 for urban areas.

4.3 Human Development Index:
Using HDI we can find out the significant change in the development of Human resource
throughout the last three decades.
Table 12: Bangladeshs HDI trends based on consistent time series data, new component
indicators and new methodology
Year Life
expectancy
at birth
Expected
years of
schooling
Means years
of schooling
GNI per
capita
(2005 PPP $)
HDI value
1980 55.2 4.4 2.0 584 .303
1985 56.9 4.5 2.4 646 .324
1990 59.5 5.0 2.9 690 .352
1995 62.1 6.0 3.3 784 .388
2000 64.7 7.0 3.7 905 .422
2005 66.9 8.0 4.2 1,120 .462
2010 68.6 8.1 4.8 1,459 .496
2011 68.9 8.1 4.8 1,529 .500
The major Features from the table are:
Bangladeshs HDI value for 2011 is 0.500in the low human development category
positioning the country at 146 out of 187 countries and territories.
Between 1980 and 2011, Bangladeshs HDI value increased from 0.303 to 0.500, an
increase of 65.0 per cent or average annual increase of about 1.6 per cent.
Between 1980 and 2011, Bangladeshs life expectancy at birth increased by 13.7 years.
Mean years of schooling increased by 2.8 years and expected years of schooling
increased by 3.7 years.
Bangladeshs GNI per capita increased by about 162.0 per cent between 1980 and 2011.



Figure: HDI of Bangladesh in comparison. Source: UNDP
In the decades of 80s, the HDI performance of Bangladesh was poorer than low human
development rate.
After 1990s, Bangladeshs performance started picking up over the low human
development rate. However, after the 90s the gap between human development rate of
South Asia and the world has been decreasing continuously.
The rank of Bangladeshs HDI for 2010 based on data available in 2011 and methods used in
2011 is 146 out of 187 countries. In the 2010 HDR, Bangladesh was ranked 129 out of 169
countries. However, it is misleading to compare values and rankings with those of previously
published reports, because the underlying data and methods have changed, as well as the
number of countries included in the HDI. Table 12 reviews Bangladeshs progress in each of
the HDI indicators.

5. Generalizations:
Having explained the major macroeconomic indicators above, we can draw the following
generalized conclusions:
1. Performances of 1972 90 VS Performances of 1990 2010:
In all the sectors, the performances were stagnant during the decades of 80s. The
performances in the later two decades of independence were much better than the
performance in the first two decades. However, it should be remind in mind that in the
70s we had a devastated economy to begin with.
2. Autocracy VS Democracy:
If we search the political regimes behind the decades, then we will find that most of the
years of first two decades were in fact under autocracy. From 1990, Bangladesh has
started walking in the path of democracy again. Hence, the question comes to us does
not Democracy ensure higher performance than Autocracy in the perspective of
Bangladesh? In fact one of the major reasons behind the war of Independence was
Democratic government.
3. Sustainable growth VS constraints:
In the paved path of development, Bangladesh has to ensure its viability confronting the
constraints. For achieving a sustainable and higher growth rate she has to address the
political, infrastructural and socio-economic constraints strongly. Power and energy crisis
should have to be removed through appropriate policies as soon as possible.
4. MDG, Poverty reduction and Human development:
Bangladesh has already achieved many of the goals of MDG. However, to ensure the
continuity growth must have to be kept sustainable. As exports of manpower, unaffected
high growth rate of inward foreign remittance, social safety nets and microcredit helps
directly in poverty reduction, these are should be handled with priorities in the upcoming
future. Inflation rate must have to keep down to help the poverty reduction process.

6. Conclusion:
Bangladesh economy has the potential to achieve higher growth than has been achieved in the
recent past; and effort needs to be made to attain and sustain such growth. That, in turn, would
require serious efforts at removing the constraints on investment - domestic as well as foreign.
Mobilization of domestic resources (especially raising revenue/GDP ratio) should be a priority.
However, single-minded pursuit of a growth agenda would not be sufficient from the point of
view of achieving the ultimate goal of development, viz., reduction (and eventual elimination) of
poverty and achievement of other Millennium Development Goals through a wider sharing of the
benefits of growth. Higher rate of growth of productive employment, a faster transfer of workers
to sectors/activities with higher levels of productivity, reversal of the trend of rising income
inequality, and greater attention to social aspects of development would have to be important
elements in a growth plus development agenda.
















Appendix:

Table 1: Investment and Savings (as % of GDP)
Year
Total investment (as percentage of
GDP)
Gross national savings (as percentage of
GDP)
1980 14.695 9.686
1981 17.726 17.828
1982 17.37 17.57
1983 16.398 16.696
1984 16.133 16.46
1985 16.521 16.815
1986 16.335 16.489
1987 16.172 16.256
1988 16.529 16.767
1989 16.899 17.365
1990 16.971 18.678
1991 17.109 19.473
1992 17.634 18.615
1993 18.183 18.392
1994 18.782 19.979
1995 19.575 20.584
1996 20.373 20.904
1997 21.201 21.68
1998 21.926 22.054
1999 22.624 22.719
2000 23.057 22.74
2001 23.118 22.942
2002 23.283 24.189
2003 23.73 25.171
2004 24.289 25.654
2005 24.592 26.81
2006 24.552 28.198
2007 24.327 29.494
2008 24.295 29.874
2009 24.394 29.808
2010 24.584 29.157
Source: BBS, IMF.

Table 2: Percentage change in the volume of Imports and exports of goods and services
Units
Volume of imports of goods and
services (% change)
Volume of exports of goods and
services (% change)
1980 23.605 21.127
1981 10.042 26.904
1982 -1.765 12.297
1983 -4.78 5.298
1984 4.845 -8.739
1985 -1.913 -1.145
1986 -0.08 32.055
1987 7.84 19.798
1988 22.619 2.085
1989 12.58 20.871
1990 -3.037 7.845
1991 2.473 13.754
1992 11.165 15.944
1993 11.645 14.742
1994 16.519 15.556
1995 14.248 5.166
1996 -0.353 12.92
1997 3.813 23.504
1998 17.729 13.695
1999 6.682 9.483
2000 1.92 11.833
2001 5.542 4.477
2002 0.914 3.711
2003 0.678 -0.656
2004 5.434 8.692
2005 8.058 15.363
2006 4.113 13.412
2007 10.261 9.4
2008 -0.964 5.212
2009 21.434 16.551
2010 9.655 16.655
2011 9.141 14.037
2012 19.08 13.959
Source: EPB. IMF, World Economic outlook September,2011.


Table 3: Export Import Performance of Bangladesh
Year Exports
(as % of GDP)
Imports
(as % of GDP)
Trade Deficit Current
Account
Balance
1972-75* 5.0 11 -6.0
1977-78 5.2 13.10 -7.9
1978-79 5.9 13.50 -7.6
1979-80 5.9 16.30 -10.4
1980-81 5.2 16.90 -11.7 -1.275
1981-82 4.9 15.40 -10.5 -3.619
1982-83 6.6 16.60 -10 -3.8
1983-84 6.1 15.70 -9.3 -2.2
1984-85 6.6 17.20 -10.6 -3.0
1985-86 5.6 16.30 -10.7 -3.5
1986-87 6.21 15.21 -9 -2.6
1987-88 4.8 11.7 -6.9 -2.0
1988-89 5.0 12.3 -7.3 -4.4
1989-90 5 12.4 -7.4 -5.2
1990-91 5.5 11.3 -5.8 -3.1
1991-92 6.4 11.3 -4.9 -1.8
1992-93 7.4 12.7 -5.3 -1.9
1993-94 7.5 12.4 -4.9 -0.3
1994-95 9.2 15.4 -6.2 -1.8
1995-96 9.5 16.9 -6.4 -2.3
1996-97 10.5 16.9 -6.4 -1.3
1997-98 11.7 17.1 -5.4 -0.6
1998-99 11.6 17.5 -5.9 -0.9
1999-00 12.2 17.8 -5.6 0.0
2000-01 13.7 19.9 -6.1 -2.2
2001-02 12.6 18 -5.4 0.5
2002-03 12.6 18.6 -4.3 0.6
2003-04 13.5 19.3 -4.1 0.3
2004-05 14.4 21.8 -7.5 -0.9
2005-06 16.8 21.5 -4.7 1.3
2006-07 20.4 28.5 -8.1 1.4
2007-08 17.5 24.5 -7.0 .8
2008-09 17.4 22.7 -5.3 2.8
2009-10 16.2 21.3 -5.1 3.7
2010-11 14.5 19.5 -5 0.6
Source: The Strategy of Development in Bangladesh, M Hossain & A. R. Khan, 1987, BBS,
Bangladesh Economic review 2009, 2011, IMF *estimated by Selim Jahan

Table 4: Growth of Export (1980-2011)
Year Annual percentage change of
Export Earnings
Compound change
1981-82 -12.3
1982-83 8.8
1983-84 19.1
1984-85 15.4 7.0
1985-86 -12.5
1986-87 31.1
1987-88 14.6
1988-89 5.0
1989-90 18.0 10.2
1990-91 12.7
1991-92 16.1
1992-93 19.5
1993-94 6.3
1994-95 37.1 17.9
1995-96 11.8
1996-97 14
1997-98 16.8
1998-99 2.9
1999-00 8.03 10.6
2000-01 12.43
2001-02 -7.44
2002-03 9.39
2003-04 16.1
2004-05 13.83 8.5
2005-06 21.62
2006-07 15.69
2007-08 15.86 17.7
2008-09 10.31
2009-10 4.11
2010-11 40.30 18.24
Source: EPB, Bangladesh Economic review 2009, 2011, mof.gov.bd





Table 5: Change in sectoral share of Export from 1972 2011
Year Share of Primary commodities
(as % of total exports)
Share of Manufactured
commodities (% of total
exports)
1972-75 38.9 61.1
1975-80 35.25 65.75
1980-84 34.8 65.2
1984-85 34.0 66.0
1985-86 36.5 63.5
1986-87 27.7 72.3
1987-88 23.2 76.8
1988-89 23.3 76.7
1989-90 21.2 78.8
1990-91 17.9 82.1
1991-92 13.4 86.6
1992-93 13.2 86.8
1993-94 13.7 86.3
1994-95 13 87.0
1995-96 12.3 87.7
1996-97 11.9 88.1
1997-98 9.7 90.3
1998-99 7.9 92.1
1999-00 8.2 91.8
2000-01 7.5 92.5
2001-02 6.5 93.5
2002-03 7.1 92.9
2003-04 7.3 92.7
2004-05 7.5 92.5
2005-06 7.3 92.7
2006-07 6.8 93.2
2007-08 7.0 93.0
2008-09 5.58 94.41
2009-10 5.33 94.67
2010-11 6.0 94.0
Source: Mahbub Hossain & AR Khan, The Strategy of Development in Bangladesh. EPB





Table 6: Growth of Import:
Year Annual Growth of Import
(% change)
Compound Growth of Import
(5 year average)
1983-84 -
1984-85 12.40
1985-86 -10.50
1986-87 10.08
1987-88 13.93
1988-89 13.03
1989-90 11.38 7.27
1990-91 -7.64
1991-92 4.15
1992-93 12.58
1993-94 2.95
1994-95 39.20 9.19
1995-96 19.08
1996-97 3.09
1997-98 5.05
1998-99 6.50
1999-00 4.60 7.50
2000-01 11.50
2001-02 -8.50
2002-03 13.10
2003-04 12.90
2004-05 20.60 9.44
2005-06 12.20
2006-07 8.30
2007-08 27.56
2008-09 4.10
2009-10 5.50 11.53
Source: Bangladesh Bank. Ministry of Finance







Table 7: Import Pattern 1972-2011
Year Major Primary
Goods (% share)
Major Industrial
Goods (% share)
Capital
Machinery
(% share)
Other products
(% share)
1973-74 49 8 14 29
1974-75 48 9 11 32
1975-76 33 13 14 40
1976-77 21 24 17 38
1977-78 31 15 16 38
1978-79 21 11 21 47
1979-80 33 16 17 34
1980-81 18 22 21 39
1981-82 23 21 19 37
1982-83 29 20 19 32
1983-84 32.21 15.68 26.18 25.92
1984-85 31.58 16.36 26.11 25.95
1985-86 18.86 22.39 42.13 16.63
1986-87 17.89 13.62 32.66 35.83
1987-88 25.18 15.94 36.50 22.37
1988-89 18.07 16.68 31.70 33.54
1989-90 15.56 15.08 34.48 34.88
1990-91 18.35 19.87 35.46 26.32
1991-92 14.71 21.54 35.65 28.10
1992-93 11.42 15.67 33.06 39.84
1993-94 11.00 17.01 31.02 40.97
1994-95 14.88 15.84 28.93 40.35
1995-96 14.77 15.49 28.33 41.41
1996-97 8.59 18.19 27.05 46.17
1997-98 10.75 15.23 27.54 46.48
1998-99 18.09 12.95 3.67 65.29
1999-00 11.70 14.38 3.75 70.17
2000-01 11.21 14.78 5.16 64.56
2001-02 9.51 15.35 6.49 68.65
2002-03 11.73 16.03 5.67 66.57
2003-04 12.28 17.52 6.69 63.51
2004-05 12.75 20.25 8.48 58.52
2005-06 12.57 20.36 10.44 56.63
2006-07 12.25 19.13 9.67 58.94
2007-08 16.72 19.48 6.95 56.85
2008-09 12.95 22.37 6.3 58.36
2009-10 13.06 22.02 7.1 63.29
Source: Bangladesh Bank. Ministry of Finance.

Table 8: Remittance and number of expatriates from 1975 to 2010
Year Number of expatriates
(in 000)
Remittance (in Million US $)
1975-76 - 10
1976-77 14 49
1977-78 18 101
1978-79 25 122
1979-80 27 237
1980-81 38 381
1981-82 66 418
1982-83 64 619
1983-84 52 591
1984-85 69 442
1985-86 78 649
1986-87 61 697
1987-88 74 737
1988-89 87 771
1989-90 110 758
1990-91 97 764
1991-92 185 848
1992-93 238 947
1993-94 192 1089
1994-95 200 1198
1995-96 181 1217
1996-97 228 1475
1997-98 243 1525
1998-99 270 1706
1999-00 248 1949
2000-01 213 1882
2001-02 195 2501
2002-03 251 3062
2003-04 277 3372
2004-05 250 3848
2005-06 291 4802
2006-07 564 5978
2007-08 981 7915
2008-09 650 9689
2009-10 427 10987
Source: Bangladesh Bank. Bangladesh Economic Review 2009.



Table 9: Annual Inflation (end of period consumer prices) from 1980 - 2011
Year Inflation (end of period consumer prices)

Percent change
1980 12.762
1981 19.481
1982 6.211
1983 10.673
1984 10.436
1985 12.799
1986 10.604
1987 10.163
1988 7.485
1989 8.583
1990 11.782
1991 1.935
1992 1.505
1993 5.444
1994 8.777
1995 7.727
1996 0.733
1997 5.957
1998 12.675
1999 3.073
2000 1.554
2001 2.479
2002 3.833
2003 6.498
2004 5.505
2005 7.064
2006 6.136
2007 11.589
2008 6.031
2009 8.505
2010 8.285
2011 12.1



Table 10: Rural poverty rate (1963/64 1989/90):
Year Rural people below poverty line (%)
1963-64 43.6
1973-73 71.3
1981-82 65.4
1983-84 50.0
1985-86 41.3
1988-89 43.8
1989-90 37.5
Source: Task Force report, Volume 1, 1991
Trend in Poverty Scenario (1983 - 2010)
Table 11: Upper Poverty Line:
Year National Rural Urban
1983-84 58.50 59.61 50.15
1985-86 51.73 53.14 42.92
1988-89 57.13 59.18 43.88
1991-92 58.84 61.19 44.87
1995-96 53.08 56.65 35.04
2000 48.90 52.30 35.20
2005 40.00 43.80 28.40
2010 31.5 35.20 21.30
Source: HIES, BBS
Table 12: Trend in Poverty scenario (1983 - 2010)
Lower Poverty Line
Year National Rural Urban
1983-84 40.91 42.62 28.03
1985-86 33.77 36.01 19.90
1988-89 41.32 44.30 21.99
1991-92 42.69 45.95 23.29
1995-96 35.55 39.76 14.32
2000 34.30 37.90 20.00
2005 25.10 28.60 14.60
2010 17.6 21.1 7.7
Source: HIES, BBS


Figure: Trend in Lower Poverty Line From 1983 2010.


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0
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Figure: Trend of Lower Poverty line
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