The Tarrance Group AAN New J ersey 3 GOP Primary Brushfire (May, 2014) Page 1

M E M O R A N D U M

TO: AMERICAN ACTION NETWORK

FROM: DAVE SACKETT
LOGAN DOBSON

RE: KEY FINDINGS FROM A SURVEY OF REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTER
ATTITUDES IN NEW JERSEYS THIRD CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

DATE: MAY 27, 2014
________________________________________________________________________

The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the American Action Network with the key findings
from a survey of Republican Primary voter attitudes in New Jerseys Third Congressional
District. These key findings are based on telephone interviews with N=400 likely Republican
primary voters throughout New Jerseys Third Congressional District. Responses to this survey
were gathered May 18-20, 2014 and the margin of error associated with a sample of this type is +
4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.

For analytical purposes, the data from this study has been compared to data from a similar study
conducted April 28-30, 2014 with a sample size of N=401 likely Republican primary voters.

KEY FINDINGS

MacArthur Has Expanded His Lead to +13 & Is Ahead With Key Demographics


Forty-three percent (43%) of Republican primary voters indicate they would vote for
MacArthur, while only thirty percent (30%) indicate they would vote for Lonegan, and
twenty-seven percent (27%) indicate they are undecided on a primary ballot test.
MacArthurs advantage over Lonegan has increased from a +5 point advantage at the end of
April to a +13 point advantage now.

MacArthur leads Lonegan by a substantial margin among GOP primary voters in both the
Burlington and Ocean County portions of the district, and maintains a double digit lead
among both men and women voters.

MacArthurs dominance of the ballot is such that he leads among very conservative
primary voters and self-identified strong pro-life voters. MacArthur also has a +10 point lead
(44%-34%) on the ballot among those who indicate that repealing ObamaCare is the most
important issue.

MacArthur is also getting 50% of the vote and has a double digit lead on the ballot among
those who know both candidates and those who have a favorable impression of both
candidates.
201 N Union Street, Suite 410
Alexandria, Virginia 22314
(703) 684-6688
(703) 836-8256 FAX
dsackett@tarrance.com
THE TARRANCE
GROUP
www.tarrance.com
The Tarrance Group AAN New J ersey 3 GOP Primary Brushfire (May, 2014) Page 2

MacArthur is Well-Liked by Primary Voters While Lonegans Favorables Have Fallen

MacArthurs name ID stands at eighty-three percent (83%) and approximately half of
primary voters indicate that they have a favorable impression of him. He maintains a solid 3
to 1 favorable to unfavorable ratio among primary voters.

By contrast, Lonegan has seen his image ratings erode by a net -16 points over the past three
weeks. His favorable rating has dropped by -10 points (42% May) and his unfavorable rating
has increased by +6 points (31% May), and he has been reduced to a very weak 1.4 to 1
favorable to unfavorable ratio.

The Campaign Information Flow Has Been Both Pro-MacArthur & Anti-Lonegan

Among those who have seen, read, or heard about MacArthur and his campaign, his net
intake is +23, with fifty-two percent (52%) of primary voters indicating they would be more
likely to vote for MacArthur based on the things that they have seen, read, or heard.

At the same time, Lonegans net intake is a net -13, and fully forty-seven percent (47%)
indicate they would be less likely to vote for him based on the things that they have seen,
read, or heard about him and his campaign for Congress.


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