Environment Colorado
Research and Policy Center
Tony Dutzik and Elizabeth Ridlington
Frontier Group
Emily Figdor
Environment America
Research & Policy Center
Fall 2009
Acknowledgments
Environment America Research & Policy Center thanks the following individuals for
their review of this report: Allison Reilly-Guerette, Climate & Energy Policy Analyst,
Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management (NESCAUM), and Sandra Sattler,
Energy Modeler, Union of Concerned Scientists. The authors would also like to thank
Siena Kaplan for her editorial assistance.
This report is made possible with funding from the Energy Foundation and New York
Community Trust.
The opinions expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect
the views of our funders of those who provided review. Any factual errors are strictly the
responsibility of the authors.
Frontier Group conducts independent research and policy analysis to support a cleaner,
healthier and more democratic society. Our mission is to inject accurate information and
compelling ideas into public policy debates at the local, state and federal levels. For more
information about Frontier Group, please visit www.frontiergroup.org.
Executive Summary 1
Introduction 6
The Big Picture: Nationwide Emission Trends 8
Carbon Dioxide Emissions Increased in 2007 8
Emissions Declined in 2008 and Will Likely Fall Further in 2009 14
Emission Trends in the States 16
Overview of Carbon Dioxide Pollution by State and Region 16
Assessing the Trends 21
Cleaner Fuels and Lower Emissions in the Northeast 21
Recent Emission Declines: The Impact of Clean Power Choices 23
Emissions from Transportation: Oregon and Washington Blaze a New Trail 25
Energy Efficiency and Low Carbon Emissions Go Hand in Hand 26
Continuing Challenges: Breaking Dependence on Coal 27
Tables
Table ES-1. Top 10 States for Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions 2
Table 1. Top 10 States for Total Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions 17
Table 2. Top 10 States for Per Capita Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions 19
Table 3. Bottom 10 States for Per Capita Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions 20
Table 4. States with the Lowest 2007 Per Capita Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide
Emissions Have Strong Efficiency Programs 26
Table 5. Top 10 States for Biggest Percentage Increase in Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide
Emissions, 2004 to 2007 27
Table 6. States with the Highest 2007 Per Capita Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide
Emissions Rely on Coal to Generate Electricity 27
Figures
Figure ES-1. Carbon Dioxide Pollution Per Capita from Fossil Fuels, 2007 3
Figure ES-2. Change in Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2004 to 2007 4
Figure 1. U.S. Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1990 to 2007 9
Figure 2. Sources of U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Consumption, 2007 9
Figure 3. U.S. Global Warming Emissions by Pollutant 10
Figure 4. Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuels, Countries with
Highest Total Emissions 11
Figure 5. Electricity Generation from Dirty Fuels Increased from 1990 to 2007 12
Figure 6. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Transportation, by Fuel, 1990 to 2007 13
Figure 7. Emission Intensities, Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Per Unit of
Gross Domestic Product 14
Figure 8. Share of U.S. Carbon Dioxide Pollution by Region, 1990 and 2007 18
Figure 9. Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Pollution by Region, 1990 and 2007 19
Figure 10. Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuels, 2007 21
Figure 11. Increase in Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuels, 1990 to 2007 22
Figure 12. Change in Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuels, 2004 to 2007 23
Figure 13. Texas Electricity Generation Mix 24
Figure 14. U.S. Wind Power Generation 30
Figure 15. Projected Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions 31
Executive Summary
A
merica’s reliance on fossil fuels—oil, • Emissions of carbon dioxide, the lead-
coal and natural gas—for energy ing global warming pollutant, from
creates a host of problems, including fossil fuel consumption increased by
air and water pollution, global warming 19 percent in the United States from
pollution, high and unpredictable bills for 1990 to 2007. Nationally, the rate of
consumers and businesses, and the need to emissions growth has slowed in recent
import oil from unstable parts of the world. years, and emissions peaked in many
Moving to clean energy—such as solar states in 2004 and 2005.
and wind power, more efficient homes,
and plug-in cars—will cut pollution, help • Seventeen states saw declines in car-
rebuild our economy, and reduce America’s bon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel
dependence on oil. use between 2004 and 2007.
For decades, America’s use of fossil fu-
els—and the global warming pollution that Those emission reductions—while far
results—has been on the rise nationally and short of what will be needed to address the
in states across the country. But this trend threat of global warming—could be a sign
is starting to change in some states—in of a new trend, particularly if the United
part because of the move to clean energy. States adopts strong policies to move the
Following the lead of those states will start nation toward a clean energy future.
to put the United States on a path to lower
global warming emissions and help drive States that are highly reliant on
the creation of a clean energy economy. coal-fired power plants, have energy-
This report analyzes the most recent intensive industries, and/or have high
data available from the federal Department levels of pollution from cars and trucks
of Energy to calculate emissions of carbon tend to produce the most carbon dioxide
dioxide from the use of oil, coal and natural pollution from fossil fuel use.
gas at the national and state level from 1990
to 2007. Our analysis finds that: • Texas remained the nation’s number
Executive Summary
one emitter of carbon dioxide from Table ES-1. Top 10 States for Fossil
fossil fuel use in 2007, followed by Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2007
California, Pennsylvania, Ohio and
Florida. (See Table ES-1.) Energy-Related
CO2 Emissions
• Wyoming produced the most carbon State (million metric tons)
dioxide pollution per capita, followed
by North Dakota, West Virginia, Texas 675
Alaska and Louisiana. Rhode Island California 400
produced the least carbon dioxide per
Pennsylvania 277
capita in 2007, followed by New York,
Vermont, Idaho and California. Ohio 270
Florida 258
• Electricity generation and transpor- Illinois 244
tation are by far the largest sources
Indiana 234
of carbon dioxide emissions in the
United States, responsible for 40 New York 201
percent and 33 percent of fossil fuel- Louisiana 195
related emissions, respectively, in Georgia 186
2007. Power plants and transportation
were also the fastest-growing sources
of emissions between 1990 and 2007.
worst impacts of global warming.
Nationally, the rate of growth in
carbon dioxide pollution has slowed but Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil
emissions still remain above the levels fuel use are declining in a growing num-
of two decades ago and well above the ber of states as they invest in the clean,
levels needed to prevent the worst im- renewable technologies that are part of
pacts of global warming. a new energy future. Emissions remain
on the rise in other states that have not
• Between 2000 and 2007, emissions of eased their reliance on dirty fuels.
carbon dioxide from fossil fuel con-
sumption increased at one-fifth the • Four Northeastern states—Con-
rate they did during the 1990s. necticut, Delaware, Massachusetts
and New York—emitted less carbon
• Carbon dioxide emissions are estimat- dioxide from fossil fuel consumption
ed to have declined by 2.8 percent in in 2007 than they did in 1990. Since
2008 (to their lowest level since 2001) 1997, gross state product in these four
and are projected to fall still farther in states increased by 65 percent while
2009, due to high oil prices in 2008, carbon dioxide emissions decreased by
the recession, and the declining car- 5 percent.
bon intensity of the economy.
• Seventeen states and the District of
• However, these emission reductions Columbia have seen total emissions
are far from the roughly 35 percent decline since 2004, a year of peak
cut in global warming emissions the emissions for many states. Maine
United States must make by 2020 saw the largest percentage decline
in order to do our share to avert the over this period, while New York and
Executive Summary
Figure ES-2. Change in Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2004 to 2007
15
IL
CO
OH IA WAAL
AZ UT
5 NC
KY NJ
WV MT
ND
ORMS
KS
HI TN
NEWY
(MMT)
ID AR
DENMVAMO
RI SD
0
MN FL
VT DC SC
PA
LA
NH WI AK
ME
IN MACT
-5 MI
MD
NV
-10
TX
-15 NY
• Washington and Oregon are the only Creating a new energy future and
two states in which the number of achieving the carbon dioxide emission
vehicle-miles traveled on highways reductions necessary to avoid the worst
per capita declined between 1990 and impacts of global warming will require
2007—leading to significant reduc- strong action at the federal and state
tions in per capita emissions from levels, including:
gasoline use in both states. Both states
are noted for their leadership in pro- • Science-based limits on global warm-
moting “smart growth” and both have ing pollution from the American
experienced strong increases in transit economy, with the goal of reducing
ridership, suggesting that states that U.S. emissions by 35 percent below
provide transportation alternatives 2005 levels by 2020 and at least 80
to reduce reliance on fossil fuels can percent below 2005 levels by 2050.
reduce carbon dioxide emissions. A cap on overall pollution must be
paired with strong emission standards
• States that have made investments in for vehicles, coal-fired power plants,
improving the energy efficiency of and other large sources to ensure that
their economies tend to produce fewer America moves to clean energy and
carbon dioxide emissions, suggesting can achieve ambitious science-based
that energy efficiency can be a critical pollution-reduction goals.
tool in efforts to address global warm-
ing at the same time it creates jobs • Renewable electricity standards that
locally. would ensure that the United States
Executive Summary
Introduction
T
he reliance of the U.S. economy on Scientists warn that if population, eco-
coal, oil and natural gas creates a host nomic output and fossil fuel consumption
of problems for our environment and grow substantially, global average tem-
our economy, including that fossil fuel con- peratures by the end of the century will be
sumption is the primary source of global approximately 7.2° F (4.0° C) higher than
warming pollution, and that purchases of in 1990, and temperatures will continue to
oil, coal and natural gas are a major finan- rise for generations to come.3
cial drain on consumers and businesses. Temperature increases of only 3.6° F
Global warming poses a severe threat to higher than pre-industrial levels could have
America’s future. The early effects of glob- catastrophic consequences—and 1.4° F of
al warming are evident across the United warming has already occurred.4 Stopping
States and around the world. Over the past temperatures from increasing beyond this
50 years, global average temperatures have rough threshold requires immediate and
increased at a rate unprecedented in the last sustained reductions in pollution.
1,300 years of world history.1 The effects Cutting global warming emissions will
the United States has experienced include, also help us reshape how we use energy by
among other changes: increasing efficiency and renewable energy
and keeping more money in the American
• More frequent warm spells and heat economy.
waves. Our current reliance on fossil fuels
is costly: we spend billions of dollars on
• More intense hurricanes, particularly energy—often to import fuel, money that
in the Atlantic Ocean. otherwise could be spent supporting local
economies and jobs. Our national bill for
• Decreases in snow cover. fossil fuels in 2008 exceeded $1 trillion for
the first time ever—more than was spent on
• More frequent heavy downpours, with education or the military. A large portion
a greater proportion of total rainfall of that money was spent to import energy
coming in heavy bursts.2 from other countries. In 2007, consumers
Introduction
The Big Picture:
Nationwide Emission Trends
T
his report analyzes trends in carbon
dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use.
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Using data from the U.S. Department Increased in 2007
of Energy, we calculate emissions of car- Carbon dioxide released in the use of fossil
bon dioxide from the use of coal, natural fuels—coal, oil and natural gas—is respon-
gas and oil at the national and state level sible for the lion’s share of global warming
and by different sectors of the economy. pollution in the United States. Total U.S.
Our analysis extends from 1990, the year emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil
that the international community uses as fuel consumption increased by 19 percent
its baseline from which emission-reduc- (949 million metric tons of carbon dioxide
tion targets are calculated, to 2007, the (MMTCO2)) from 1990 to 2007. Emissions
most recent year for which state-by-state rose steadily during the 1990s, while emis-
data are available. Because emissions in a sion growth has occurred at a far slower rate
number of states peaked in 2004 or 2005, so far in this decade. From 1990 to 2000,
we frequently use 2004 as significant com- emissions rose at a rate of 1.5 percent annu-
parison point. ally compared with a rate of 0.3 percent an-
In 2007, emissions of carbon dioxide nually from 2000 to 2007. (See Figure 1.)
from fossil fuel use in the United States The two largest contributors of carbon
reached a new record. But the pace of dioxide pollution in the American economy
emission growth in the current decade is are electric power plants (particularly coal-
significantly slower than the rapid rise in fired plants) and transportation (particular-
emissions during the 1990s. Moreover, ly gasoline-powered cars and light trucks).
emissions are estimated to have declined Electricity production is responsible for 40
in 2008 and are projected to decline in percent of fossil fuel-related carbon dioxide
2009 as well. Whether these emission re- pollution, while transportation is respon-
ductions represent a temporary side-effect sible for 33 percent. Direct consumption
of economic recession or the beginning of fossil fuels in homes, businesses and in-
of a longer-term trend toward a cleaner dustry accounts for the other 27 percent of
economy remains to be seen. carbon dioxide emissions. (See Figure 2.)
6,200
s of Carbon Dioxide
6,000
5,800
5,600
5,400
Million Metric Tons
5,200
5,000
4,800
4,600
4,400
Figure 2. Sources of U.S. Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Consumption, 2007
Industrial
17%
Commercial Electricity
4% Generation
40%
Residential
6%
Transportation
33%
T hough many activities and gases contribute to global warming, this report
focuses on carbon dioxide emissions from combustion and other uses of fos-
sil fuels. Most fossil fuel emissions are from energy use, but fossil fuels not used
for energy production can release carbon dioxide, too, such as when fertilizer is
manufactured from natural gas.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions comprised 83 percent of U.S. global warm-
ing emissions in 2007 (see Figure 3).10 Other global warming pollutants include
methane, nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons
(PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). These pollutants are released from agricul-
tural practices, waste in landfills, air conditioners, insulation around electrical
equipment, and other sources.
Some gases have a greater ability to trap heat and warm the atmosphere. Meth-
ane can trap 56 times as much heat as carbon dioxide, while nitrous oxide is 260
times more powerful. HFCs have up to 9,100 times more heating potential than
carbon dioxide, and SF6 can hold 16,300 times more heat.11 Thus, addressing all
global warming pollutants is important.
Nitrous Oxide, 5%
Other Carbon
Dioxide 1%
Dioxide,
Energy-Related
Carbon
Dioxide, 81%
T he United States is responsible for more of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
than any other country. Cumulatively, the United States emitted approximately
28 percent of the carbon dioxide released into the earth’s atmosphere through
2005. The next largest historic emitters, Russia and China, each accounted for
only 8 percent of the world’s total.13 In 2006, China’s yearly carbon dioxide emis-
sions surpassed those of the United States for the first time, making it the world’s
largest annual emitter.14
Figure 4. Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuels, Countries with
Highest Total Emissions, 200615
7,000
xide
ns of Carrbon Diox
6,000
5,000 China
United States
4,000
Russia
Metric Ton
3,000
India
2,000 Japan
p
Million M
1,000
China’s surge to the top of the list of the world’s leading polluters, however,
is no reason for celebration—or for the United States to shirk its ample respon-
sibility to address global warming. For one thing, the United States continues
to release approximately 20 percent of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions.16
And because carbon dioxide persists in the atmosphere for decades to centuries,
America remains responsible for an outsized share of the carbon dioxide that is
causing global warming now and will be so in the years to come.17
America continues to emit far more carbon dioxide per capita than many other
industrialized nations. On a per capita basis, the United States emits more than
twice as much carbon dioxide as the United Kingdom or Japan, more than four
times as much as China, and 17 times as much as India.18
4,500
4,000
3,500
Hours
Renewables
3,000
3 000
gawatt-H
Other
2,500
Nuclear
Miillion Meg
2,000 Petroleum
Natural Gas
1,500
Coal
1,000
500
2,500
Carbon Dioxide Emissions (MMT)
Other
1,500
Natural Gas
Jet Fuel
1,000
Diesel
500 Gasoline
year)
600
– Most of this decline w
decrease in energy i
– The remainder was f
400
decrease in the carb
energy supply
0)3+:
200 • Between 1990 and 2007,
GDP declined by 26.4 per
year)
0
• Between 1990 and 2007,
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
On a per capita basis, the Gulf South states Table 1. Top 10 States for Total Fossil
produce the most carbon dioxide pollu- Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2007
tion, while the Northeast produces the
least. The difference among the regions is
dramatic, with the Gulf South and Plains Energy-Related
regions producing twice as much carbon CO2 Emissions
dioxide per capita as the Pacific West or State (million metric tons)
1990
Great
Southeast Lakes/Midwest
12% 22%
Plains
7%
Pacific West
10%
Mountain West
7% Mid-Atlantic
13%
2007
Southeast Great
13% Lakes/Midwest
22%
Plains
7%
Pacific West
10%
Gulf South
19%
Northeast
8%
Mountain West
8% Mid-Atlantic
13%
35
Capita (metric tons)
30
1990
25
2007
20
15
Emissions per C
10
t
ns
we /
st
ic
th
es
as
es
id es
nt
ea
ou
ai
st
W
he
t la
M ak
Pl
th
fS
ut
n
c
-A
L
or
ifi
ai
ul
So
at
id
N
c
nt
G
Pa
re
M
ou
G
Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. (See Table Table 2. Top 10 States for Per Capita
1.) The states releasing the least amount of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions,
global warming pollution were Vermont, 2007
Rhode Island, South Dakota, Idaho and
Delaware.
On a per capita basis, however, many CO2 Emissions
states with fossil fuel-intensive industries State (tons/capita)
Figure 11. Increase in Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuels, 1990 to 2007
15
Change in Carbon Dioxide Emissions 2004 to 2007
OKGA
10 CA
IL
CO
OH IA WAAL
AZ UT
5 NC
KY NJ
WV MT
ND
ORMS
KS
HI TN
NEWY
(MMT)
ID AR
DENMVAMO
RI SD
0
MN FL
VT DC SC
PA
LA
NH WI AK
ME
IN MACT
-5 MI
MD
NV
-10
TX
-15 NY
switch without increasing their reliance eighth-highest and highest emitters of car-
on highly polluting coal. bon dioxide, respectively—saw the greatest
Lower emissions have not threatened absolute declines.
economic growth in these states. Since Texas and Nevada stand out for the re-
1997, gross state product in these four ductions they have achieved in emissions
states increased by 65 percent while car- since 2004—particularly since both states
bon dioxide emissions decreased by 5 continue to add population at a rapid pace.
percent.33 The experience of both states reinforces
The experience of these states shows the centrality of electricity generation in
that switching from dirty to cleaner forms overall emission trends.
of electric power generation can have a sig- In Texas, the emission decline since
nificant and immediate impact on overall 2004 has largely been the result of declin-
emissions—and that emission reductions ing emissions from the industrial sector—
and robust economic growth can occur more specifically, a reduction in industrial
side by side. natural gas consumption. However, the
state has also succeeded in holding the line
Recent Emission Declines: on growth of emissions from its electric-
The Impact of Clean Power Choices ity sector. On a per capita basis, emissions
Since 2004, 17 states and the District from electric generators in Texas fell by
of Columbia have seen total emissions 4 percent between 2004 and 2007—the
decline. (See Figure 12.) Maine saw the result of reduced reliance on coal and an
largest percentage decline over this period, increase in the share of power produced
while New York and Texas—the nation’s by natural gas and wind.34 Since 2005, the
R
ecent changes in public policy—in- adopted policies at the federal level will
cluding the Obama administration’s begin to have a more uniform impact. But
swift moves to promote energy ef- much more needs to be done to prevent the
ficiency throughout the economy—will worst impacts of global warming.
make a significant contribution toward
curbing fossil fuel use and reducing future State Actions Are Beginning to
growth in emissions. But these are only Deliver Benefits
initial steps. To achieve the near- and mid- Over the past decade, amid frustration at
term emission reductions of the depth and the federal government’s failure to adopt a
scope needed to prevent the worst impacts national energy policy that takes advantage
of global warming, the United States will of clean, cost-effective forms of energy,
have to adopt a series of additional public states have taken matters into their own
policies. hands, adopting a series of innovative pub-
lic policies to encourage the development
of clean energy.
Renewable electricity standards (RESs)
are among the most widely implemented
Actions by the States, policies, adopted by 28 states. RESs set
Congress and the Obama minimum thresholds for the share of elec-
Administration Will Change tricity that must come from wind, solar and
other forms of renewable energy. While
Energy Use market forces and other public policies
America will need to adopt bold public have also helped to spur the rapid growth in
policy solutions to move the nation toward renewable energy, RES policies have been a
a cleaner energy future. Policies adopted driving force, with more than three-quar-
by some states over the past decade are ters of all renewable energy development
beginning to make a dent in fossil fuel use in 2007 taking place in states with an RES
and carbon dioxide emissions, and recently on the books.53
Looking Forward 29
In part because of the adoption of RES In 2007, energy efficiency programs in
policies, the amount of renewable energy the United States and Canada avoided 41
on the U.S. electric grid is rising fast. In million metric tons of carbon dioxide pol-
2008, United States got 28 percent more lution, up from 36 million metric tons the
electricity from renewable energy sources year before.57
(other than hydroelectric power) than it had Other policies being pursued at the state
just two years before. America’s production or regional level should help to reduce fossil
of wind power (see Figure 14) doubled over fuel use and carbon dioxide emissions in
that same two-year span.54 coming years. For example, seven states,
In addition to pushing forward with including California, Connecticut, Hawaii,
renewable energy, many states have taken Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey
action to boost improve energy efficiency. and Washington, have adopted statewide
They have adopted efficiency standards limits on global warming pollution. Emis-
for appliances and other equipment and sion reductions from those policies should
increased their investment in energy ef- become apparent in coming years. In addi-
ficiency programs—although the level of tion, California has adopted a low carbon
investment ($4.5 billion in 2008) still falls fuel standard to cut the carbon intensity of
well short of the level needed to tap the transportation fuels, and 11 northeastern
full potential of efficiency improvements states have agreed to work together to cre-
to save money and reduce emissions.56 ate a regional low carbon fuel standard.
60,000
on (Gigawatt-hours)
50,000
40,000
Wind Power Generatio
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
6500
6250
6000
5750
5500 No-Stimulus
Updated Reference (with ARRA)
5250
5000
2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028
Looking Forward 31
however, just stabilizing emissions is reduce their reliance on polluting sources
much too little, much too late. Now, we of power such as coal and other fossil fuels.
need stronger action. America must move Many states with high carbon dioxide emis-
quickly to adopt clean energy policies ca- sions also have tremendous potential to
pable of achieving dramatic reductions in generate electricity from the wind and the
global warming pollution. sun. The United States should follow the
example of 28 states and enact a renewable
electricity standard. The standard should
ensure that the United States receives at
least 25 percent of its electricity from clean,
Policy Recommendations renewable sources of energy by 2025—re-
There are many policy tools the United ducing the need for continued dependence
States can use to help create a new en- on high-polluting fossil fuels.
ergy future and reduce emissions of global In addition, states and the federal gov-
warming pollution. ernment should take additional steps to
encourage the deployment of solar power.
Cap Global Warming Pollution Generating electricity from solar power
To ensure that the United States achieves is possible nationwide, but, unlike wind
the emission reductions science tells us power which now attracts investment
are necessary to prevent the worst impacts from mainstream utilities, solar power
of global warming, the nation should cap generation is still a niche market. Greater
emissions of global warming pollution. investment in solar power now will speed
The cap should be consistent with the goal its widespread integration. Specifically, the
of reducing U.S. emissions by 35 percent state and federal governments should ramp
below 2005 levels by 2020 and by at least 80 up investment through tax credits, targets
percent below 2005 levels by 2050. for solar power generation in renewable
A cap on carbon emissions must be electricity standards, requirements for
paired with strong emission standards for “solar ready homes,” rebate programs, and
vehicles, coal-fired power plants, and other other measures.
large sources, and avoid loopholes (such as
allowing emitters to use poorly designed Improve Energy Efficiency
offsets in place of emission reductions) to Following in the footsteps of the low-emit-
ensure that the nation’s emission reduction ting states that have invested in energy
goals are met. In addition, the value of the efficiency improvements, the states and the
emission allowances created under a cap- federal government should move forward
and-trade program should be harnessed aggressively with efforts to improve the
for important public purposes—including energy efficiency of our homes, businesses
investments in renewable energy, energy and factories. Among the policies that
efficiency improvements, and efforts to can promote America’s vast and low-cost
reduce the cost of the program to consum- energy efficiency resources are strong
ers—and not be given away to polluters building codes and appliance efficiency
for free. standards, energy efficiency resource
standards (EERS) that require utilities to
Enact a Renewable Electricity meet specific targets for energy efficiency
Standard improvements, and funding for efforts
States that increase their production of to retrofit existing buildings to achieve
clean, renewable electricity are able to greater energy efficiency.
Looking Forward 33
Conclusion
R
educing our reliance on fossil fuels, upon. Their investments in renewable en-
cutting global warming pollution, ergy and energy efficiency have helped to
and building a clean energy economy slash emissions from electricity generation
will not be easy, nor will it happen over- and consumption while creating new jobs.
night. But to protect our environment, our Their efforts to reduce driving by provid-
economy and our future, we must begin to ing better transportation alternatives have
make changes. reduced our need for imported oil, leaving
The states that have reduced their carbon more money in the domestic economy. And
dioxide pollution in recent years suggest a their willingness to reconsider how they
starting point for what other states could use energy has created the beginning of a
do and what policies they could improve new energy economy.
T
he carbon dioxide emission estimates of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks:
in this document reflect emissions 1990-2007, Annex 2: Methodology and Data
from fossil fuel consumption—includ- for Estimating CO2 Emissions from Fossil
ing both fossil fuels used for energy and Fuel Combustion (“Annex 2”), 15 April 2009.
those used for “non-energy” purposes, To calculate emissions from the industrial
such as oil used as a lubricant. These esti- sector, we relied on both Annex 2 and the
mates also include fossil fuel consumption methodology used by the EIA, in Docu-
for international shipping and aviation mentation for Emissions of Greenhouse Gases
(“bunker fuels”). The emission estimates in the United States 2006 (“Documentation”),
in this report do not include carbon diox- October 2008. The following section de-
ide emissions from other sources (such as scribes sources of data used as well as places
land use), carbon dioxide emissions from where we deviated from the methodology
geothermal energy production or the pro- or data sources described in Annex 2 or
duction of electricity from non-biogenic Documentation.
wastes, emissions from natural gas flar- Emissions are attributed to the state
ing, or emissions of other global warming where fossil fuels were burned or sold.
pollutants. In the case of electric power plants, the
All estimates are based on state-specific energy use and emissions data is based on
fossil fuel consumption data (in British consumption of fuel at the power plant, not
Thermal Units (BTU)) through 2007 from consumption of electricity by the end user.
the U.S. Energy Information Adminis- As such, the data does not take into account
tration (EIA), State Energy Consumption, that some states generate little electricity
Price and Expenditure Estimates. For the within their borders and import much from
residential, commercial, transportation neighboring states’ power plants. Emis-
and electricity generating sectors, we fol- sions from power plants are attributed to
lowed the methodology for converting the states in which they are located, rather
energy use data to carbon dioxide emis- than the states that consumed the power.
sions found in U.S. EPA, Draft Inventory For petroleum, consumption data is based
Methodology 35
on sales; therefore, emissions are attributed assumed that these reductions would have
to the state in which the fuel was pur- a minimal impact on total emissions and
chased. This is particularly salient for the did not make them.
transportation sector, in which cars, trucks In addition, Annex 2, consistent with
or other vehicles may purchase fuel in one international norms, treats international
state and consume it in another. bunker fuels as a separate category of
emissions that are not attributed to the
United States. State-by-state estimates of
bunker fuel use for international aviation
were unavailable. As a result, we opted not
Adjustments to Energy to adjust for bunker fuel use for aviation
or shipping. This may result in somewhat
Consumption Data higher transportation sector emissions in
EIA state energy data for gasoline con- states with international ports or vigorous
sumption include ethanol used as a blend- international air traffic compared with
ing component. EIA assumes that ethanol other analyses.
produces no net emissions of carbon di-
oxide. (The production of ethanol does
generate global warming pollution, some
of which is accounted for in the industrial
sector.) Therefore, the ethanol component
of gasoline must be separated from total
Adjustments for
gasoline consumption for the purposes of Non-Energy Use
calculating carbon dioxide emissions. To Many fossil energy sources are also used
achieve this, we calculated the percent- for non-energy purposes (for example,
age of ethanol used in motor gasoline by petrochemicals used in the manufacture of
volume for each state in 1990-2007 using plastics or natural gas used in the produc-
EIA state energy data. We then reduced tion of fertilizer). Energy sources used for
consumption of motor gasoline (in BTU) non-energy purposes emit carbon dioxide
by this percentage, thus reducing estimated at different rates than those used for en-
carbon dioxide emissions from gasoline use ergy. To account for this, we calculated or
by a corresponding amount. obtained the percentage of various energy
products used for non-energy purposes
and accounted for the percentage of carbon
that is “sequestered” (not emitted) from
those uses.
State-specific information on the quan-
Adjustments Not Made tity of fossil fuel products used for non-
Annex 2 calls for several small adjust- energy purposes is not available. Thus,
ments to be made with regard to natural in the transportation sector, we used na-
gas emissions to avoid double-counting of tional-level data from Annex 2 to estimate
emissions related to injections of synthetic the percentage of lubricants used for non-
gas, still gas, and biogas (landfill gas) into energy purposes.
natural gas pipelines. The volume of these For the industrial sector, we used na-
gases injected into pipelines is very small. tional data on non-energy use of coal,
For the sake of simplicity and to avoid natural gas and petroleum as presented
the need to split out emission reductions in Annex 2, with one exception. Annex 2
into various sectors of the economy, we does not include data on non-energy use of
Methodology 37
Appendix A.
Fossil Fuel-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions from All Sources,
1990, 2004 and 2007, by State
Fossil Fuel % %
CO2 Emissions Increase Increase MMTCO2 MMTCO2
2007 1990- 2004- Rank Rank Increase Increase
State (MMT) 2007 2007 1990 2007 1990-2007 2004-2007
Appendix A 39
Appendix B.
Per Capita Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions by State
Per Capita % %
CO2 Emissions Change Change
(Metric Tons) 1990- 2004- Rank Rank
State 2007 2007 2007 1990 2007
Appendix B 41
Appendix C.
Detailed State Emission Data by Sector
Note: Emissions for each sector include direct use of fossil fuels only, not emissions from electricity
generated for use in that sector.
CO2 CO2
Fossil Fuel Share of % % Change Change
CO2 Emissions State’s Change Change 1990- 2004-
2007 Emissions 1990- 2004- 2007 2007
State Sector (MMT) 2007 2007 2007 (MMT) (MMT)
Appendix C 43
CO2 CO2
Fossil Fuel Share of % % Change Change
CO2 Emissions State’s Change Change 1990- 2004-
2007 Emissions 1990- 2004- 2007 2007
State Sector (MMT) 2007 2007 2007 (MMT) (MMT)
* Emissions from electricity generation increased 1000-fold in Idaho from 1990 to 2007.
Appendix C 45
CO2 CO2
Fossil Fuel Share of % % Change Change
CO2 Emissions State’s Change Change 1990- 2004-
2007 Emissions 1990- 2004- 2007 2007
State Sector (MMT) 2007 2007 2007 (MMT) (MMT)
Appendix C 47
CO2 CO2
Fossil Fuel Share of % % Change Change
CO2 Emissions State’s Change Change 1990- 2004-
2007 Emissions 1990- 2004- 2007 2007
State Sector (MMT) 2007 2007 2007 (MMT) (MMT)
Appendix C 49
Appendix D:
Detailed State Emissions by Fuel
CO2 CO2
Fossil Fuel Share of % % Change Change
CO2 Emissions State’s Change Change 1990- 2004-
2007 Emissions 1990- 2004- 2007 2007
State Fuel (MMT) 2007 2007 2007 (MMT) (MMT)
Appendix D 51
CO2 CO2
Fossil Fuel Share of % % Change Change
CO2 Emissions State’s Change Change 1990- 2004-
2007 Emissions 1990- 2004- 2007 2007
State Fuel (MMT) 2007 2007 2007 (MMT) (MMT)
Appendix D 53
CO2 CO2
Fossil Fuel Share of % % Change Change
CO2 Emissions State’s Change Change 1990- 2004-
2007 Emissions 1990- 2004- 2007 2007
State Fuel (MMT) 2007 2007 2007 (MMT) (MMT)
B
elow are t he sector def init ions hunting...; mining, including oil and gas ex-
used in this report, as presented at traction…; and construction…. Overall en-
U.S. Department of Energy, En- ergy use in this sector is largely for process
ergy Information Administration, Glossary, heat and cooling and powering machinery,
downloaded from www.eia.doe.gov/glos- with lesser amounts used for facility heat-
sary/index.html, 19 August 2009. ing, air conditioning, and lighting. Fossil
Commercial Sector: The commercial fuels are also used as raw material inputs to
sector “consists of service-providing facili- manufactured products.”
ties and equipment of: businesses; Federal, Residential Sector: The residential
State, and local governments; and other sector “consists of living quarters for pri-
private and public organizations, such as vate households. Common uses of energy
religious, social, or fraternal groups. The associated with this sector include space
commercial sector includes institutional heating, water heating, air conditioning,
living quarters. It also includes sewage lighting, refrigeration, cooking, and run-
treatment facilities. Common uses of ener- ning a variety of other appliances. The
gy associated with this sector include space residential sector excludes institutional
heating, water heating, air conditioning, living quarters.”
lighting, refrigeration, cooking, and run- Transportation Sector: The transpor-
ning a wide variety of other equipment.” tation sector “consists of all vehicles whose
Electric Power Sector: The electric primary purpose is transporting people
power sector includes electricity generating and/or goods from one physical location to
facilities and combined heat and power plants another. Included are automobiles; trucks;
“whose primary business is to sell electricity, buses; motorcycles; trains, subways, and
or electricity and heat, to the public.” other rail vehicles; aircraft; and ships,
Industrial Sector: The industrial sector barges, and other waterborne vehicles.
“consists of all facilities and equipment used Vehicles whose primary purpose is not
for producing, processing, or assembling transportation (e.g., construction cranes
goods. The industrial sector encompasses and bulldozers, farming vehicles, and ware-
the following types of activity: manufac- house tractors and forklifts) are classified
turing…; agriculture, forestry, fishing and in the sector of their primary use.”
Appendix E 55
Notes
Notes 57
37 See methodology. U.S. Wind Energy Projects: Wyoming,
38 U.S. Department of Energy, Energy downloaded from www.awea.org/projects/
Information Administration, Southwest Projects.aspx?s=Wyoming, 7 July 2009.
Weathers Closure of Mohave Generating 52 See note 24.
Station, 24 June 2009. 53 Ryan Wiser, Lawrence Berkeley
39 See note 24. National Laboratory, Renewable Portfolio
40 U.S. Department of Transportation, Standards in the United States – A Status
Federal Transit Administration, National Report with Data Through 2007, 2008.
Transit Database: Historical Data Files: 54 U.S. Department of Energy, Energy
Service Data and Operating Expenses Information Administration, Electric Power
Time-Series by System, downloaded from Monthly March 2009 with Data for December
204.68.195.57/ntdprogram/data.htm, 7 July 2008, March 2009.
2009. 55 Ibid.
41 Ibid. 56 $4.5 billion from Consortium for
42 Washington State Commute Trip Energy Efficiency, 2008 Annual Industry
Reduction Board, Welcome, downloaded Report, downloaded from www.cee1.org/ee-
from www.ctrboard.org/, 17 August 2009. pe/2008/, 6 June 2009.
43 Based on data from U.S. Census 57 Consortium for Energy Efficiency,
Bureau, 2005-2007 American Community 2008 Annual Industry Report, downloaded
Survey, obtained via American Fact Finder from www.cee1.org/ee-pe/2008/index.php,
at factfinder.census.gov, 7 July 2009. 6 June 2009.
44 Maggie Eldridge, Max Neubauer, et al., 58 See note 7.
American Council for an Energy-Efficient 59 White House Office of the Press
Economy, The 2008 State Energy Efficiency Secretary, Obama Administration National
Scorecard, October 2008. Fuel Efficiency Policy: Good for Consumers,
45 Per capita emissions calculation: see Good for the Economy and Good for the
methodology. Efficiency ranking: see note Country (fact sheet), 19 May 2009.
44. 60 See note 7.
46 Ibid. 61 Ibid.
47 Ibid. 62 Oil shale: James Bartis et al., RAND
48 Per capita emissions calculation: see Corporation for U.S. Department of
methodology. Coal-fired generation: see Energy, National Energy Technology
note 32. Laboratory, Oil Shale Development in
49 Ibid. the United States, 2005. Tar sands: Doug
Struck, “Canada Pays Environmentally
50 American Wind Energy Association, for U.S. Oil Thirst: Hute Mines Rapidly
U.S. Wind Energy Projects: North Dakota, Draining Rivers, Cutting Into Forests,
downloaded from www.awea.org/projects/ Boosting Emissions,” Washington Post, 31
Projects.aspx?s=North+Dakota, 7 July 2009. May 2006. Coal-to-liquids: “Worse than
51 American Wind Energy Association, Gasoline,” Scientific American, August 2007.