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ELSEVIER

Available online at www.sciencedirect.corn MAT HE MAT I C AL


AND
8 C I n N C E ~ D I FI E! (~'11" " COMPUTER
MODELLING
Mathematical and Computer Modelling 40 (2004) 839-846
www.elsevier.com/locate/mcm
Ra i n f a l l - Ru n o f f Mo d e l Us i n g
an Ar t i f i c i al Ne u r a l Ne t wo r k Ap p r o a c h
S. R I AD AND J . MANI A
Universit4 des Sciences et Technologies de Li l l e- USTL- LML- EPUL. UMR CNRS 8107
Ecole Pol yt echni que Uni versi t ai re de Lille, D6par t ement de g~otechnique et g6nie civil
Cit~ scientifique, Avenue Paul Langevi n, 59655 Villeneuve d' As cq Cedex, France
<souad. riad><j acky. mania> polyt ech-lille, fr rsouad_2OO4yahoo, fr
L. BOUCHAOU
Universit6 I bn Zohr, Facult~ des sciences, D6par t ement de G6ologie
Labor at oi r e de G~ologie Appliqu6e et G~oenvi ronnement ( G. A. G. E)
Equi pe d' Hydrog~ol ogi e, BP 28/ S, 80000 Agadi r, Mar oc
Bouchaoul car a~ai l . com
Y . N A J J A R
K a n s a s S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y , D e p a r t m e n t o f C i v i l E n g i n e e r i n g
M a n h a t t a n , K S 6 6 5 0 5 , U . S . A .
ea4146ksu, edu
(Received March 2003; revised and accepted October 2003)
Ab s t r a c t - - T h e use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) is becoming increasingly common in the
analysis of hydrology and water resources problems. In this research, an ANN was developed and used
to model the rainfall-runoff relationship, in a catchment located in a semiarid climate in Morocco.
The multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network was chosen for use in the current study. The results
and comparative study indicate t hat the artificial neural network method is more suitable to predict
river runoff t han classical regression model. (~) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Ke ywor ds - - Ra i nf a l l - r unof f , Catchment, Semiarid climate, MLP, Modelling, Artificial neural net-
work, Multiple regression, Morocco.
1. I NTRODUCTI ON
Th e ANNs mode l s ar e power f ul pr e di c t i on t ool s f or t he r el at i on be t we e n r ai nf al l a nd r unof f
pa r a me t e r s . Th e r es ul t s will s u p p o r t deci si on ma k i n g i n t he a r e a o f wa t e r r es our ces p l a n n i n g a nd
ma n a g e me n t . Besi des, t h e y assi st u r b a n pl a nne r s a n d ma n a g e r s u n d e r t a k e t h e ne c e s s a r y me a s ur e s
t o face t h e b a d pr edi ct i ons . Thus , t h e y hel p avoi d l osses i n publ i c a nd pr i va t e pr oper t i es , a nd
he a l t h a n d ecol ogi cal h a z a r d s t h a t ar e l i kel y t o oc c ur due t o f l oodi ng.
Mor eover , t he ANN mode l s have been used i ncr eas i ngl y i n var i ous a s pe c t s of sci ence a nd en-
gi neer i ng be c a us e of i t s abi l i t y t o mode l b o t h l i near a nd nonl i ne a r s y s t e ms wi t h o u t t h e need t o
ma k e a n y a s s u mp t i o n s as ar e i mpl i ci t i n mo s t t r a di t i ona l s t a t i s t i c a l a ppr oa c he s . I n s ome o f t h e
hydr ol ogi c pr obl e ms , ANNs have a l r e a dy be e n successf ul l y us ed for r i ver fl ow pr e di c t i on [1-8],
0895-7177/04/$ - see front matter (~) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Typeset by .Ah/tS-TE X
doi:10.1016/j.mcm.2004.10.012
840 S. RIAD et al.
for rainfall-runoff process [9-11], for the prediction of water quality parameters [12] and for char-
acterization of soil pollution [13]. In addition, ANNs are applied for prediction of evaporation [14],
for rainfall-runoff forecasting [15-19], for prediction of flood disaster [20], and for river flow time
series prediction [21].
In these hydrological applications, a multilayer feed-forward backpropagation algorithm is
used [22]. It usually is composed of a large number of interconnected nodes, arranged in an
input layer, an output layer, and one or more hidden layers. The transfer function selected for
the network was the sigmoid function.
The aim of this paper is to model the rainfall-runoff relationship in the Ourika catchment
located in semiarid climate in Morocco using a black box type model based on ANN methodology.
2. THE ARTI FI CI AL NEURAL NETWORKS APPROACH
2.1. Over vi ew of ANN
The ANN technology is an alternate computational approach inspired by studies of the brain
and nervous systems [23]. It is based on theories of the massive interconnection and parallel
processing architecture of biological neural systems. The main theme of ANN research focuses
on modelling of the brain as a parallel computational device for various computational tasks that
were performed poorly by traditional serial computers.
ANNs have a number of interconnected processing elements (PEs) that usually operate in
parallel and are configured in regular architectures. The collective behavior of ANN, like a
human brain, demonstrates the ability to learn, recall, and generalize from training patterns or
data. The advantage of neural networks is they are capable of modelling linear and nonlinear
systems.
In the present study, we use an MLP trained with a backpropagation algorithm to predict the
drainage basin runoff. The MLP consists of an input layer consisting of node(s) representing
various input variable(s), the hidden layer consisting of many hidden nodes, and an output layer
consisting of output variable(s). The input nodes pass on the input signal values to the nodes
in the hidden layer unprocessed. The values are distributed to all the nodes in the hidden layer
depending on the connection weights W~j and Wjk [24-26] between the input node and the hidden
nodes. Connection weights are the interconnecting links between the neurons in successive layers.
Each neuron in a certain layer is connected to every single neuron in the next layer by links having
an appropriate and an adjustable connection weight.
Weights
A Wi ~ We i g h t s
o t
i 6 ,
Pt 1 ~
Input layer Hidden layer Output layer
Input Neuron Output
Xt ~ ) ~
X.
S
Figure 1. Architecture of t he neural network model used in this study.
Rai nfal l -Runoff Model 841
The ar chi t ect ur e of t he neural net work used in t hi s s t udy and t he schemat i c represent at i on
of a neuron are shown in Fi gure 1. Each node j receives i ncomi ng signals from every node i in
t he previous layer. Associ at ed wi t h each i ncomi ng signal (Xi) is a weight (Wij). The effective
i ncomi ng signal (Sj ) t o node j is t he weighted sum of all t he i ncomi ng signals and bj is t he neuron
t hreshol d value.
n
s j = x i w q + b . (1)
i =l
The effective i ncomi ng signal, Sy, is passed t hr ough a nonl i near act i vat i on funct i on t o produce t he
out goi ng signal (yj) of t he node. The most commonl y used in t hi s t ype of net works is t he logistic
sigmoid funct i on. Thi s t ransfer funct i on is cont i nuousl y differentiable, monot oni c, symmet ri c,
bounded bet ween 0 and 1 [27]. It is expressed mat hemat i cal l y as:
1
f (Sj) - 1 + e - s j ( 2 )
2.].. ANN P e r f o r ma n c e
In t hi s st udy, bot h st at i st i cal and graphi cal criteria were adopt ed t o select t he desired opt i mal
net work model. The st at i st i cal cri t eri a consist of average squared of error (ASE), coefficient of
det er mi nat i on (R 2) and t he mean absol ut e relative error (MARE). They are given by
N 2
ASE = 4=1
Y ' (3)
N( Q ~ ) 2
E t~ - Qt~
i =l
R 2 = 1 - N , ( 4 )
E ( Qt i - Qt 0 2
i=1
N
MARE = ~=1
x l o o , ( 5 )
N
where Qti and Qti are respectively, t he act ual and predi ct ed value of flow (normalized between
0 and 1), (~ti is t he mean of Qti values and N is t he t ot al number of dat a sets.
The R 2 st at i st i c measures t he linear correlation between t he act ual and predi ct ed flows values.
The ASE and MARE st at i st i c measures are used t o quant i f y t he error bet ween observed and
predi ct ed values. The opt i mal value for R 2 is equal t o 1.0 and for ASE and MARE is equal
t o 0.0.
The graphi cal performance i ndi cat or gives bet t er results when t he da t a pairs are closing t o 45
line and t he good superposi t i on bet ween t he desired and cal cul at ed flow values in t he t rai ni ng
and t est i ng phases.
For t he da t a set considered in t he present st udy, t he i nput variables as well as t he t ar get
variables are first normal i zed l i nearl y in t he range of 0 and 1. Thi s range is selected because of
t he use of t he logistic funct i on (which is bounded between 0.0 and 1.0) as t he act i vat i on funct i on
for t he out put layer, i.e., equat i on (2). The normal i zat i on is done using t he following equation.
.,~ = X -- Xmi n .
Xma x -- Xmi n' (6)
where . ~ is t he st andar di zed value of t he i nput , Xmi n and Xmax are respectively, t he mi ni mum
and maxi mum of t he act ual values, in all observations and X is t he original dat a set.
The mai n reason for st andar di zi ng t he dat a mat r i x is t hat t he variables are usual l y measured
in different uni t s. By st andar di zi ng t he variables and recasting t hem in dimensionless uni t s, t he
ar bi t r ar y effect of si mi l ari t y bet ween obj ect s is removed.
842 S. RIAD et al.
3. T H E S T U D Y C A T C H ME N T A N D D A T A B A S E
In t he present st udy, t he flow and rainfall series observed in Ouri ka basin at Aghbal ou st at i on in
Morocco is anal yzed usi ng t he ANN model. The Ouri ka basi n is t he most i mpor t ant subcat chment
of Tensift basin drai nage l ocat ed in semi-arid region of Marrakech, whi ch is drai ni ng an area of
about 503 km 2. (See Fi gure 2.)
Tensift drainage basin
\ t ) / / /
j
/
t . _.
~o
CIH(~[AOUA
/ /I
0 1 0 2 0 3 0 K m
I I I I
k
\ \ ,
t
/ / _, _%/ / ~ Ga u g e s t at i on
Fi gure 2. Locat i on of Ouri ka Wadi in t he Tensift basin.
The Rai nfal l and Runoff dai l y dat a at t he Aghbal ou st at i on was used for model investigation.
The dat a cont ai ns i nformat i on for a peri od of seven years (1990 t o 1996). The ent i re dat abase is
represent ed by 2550 dai l y values of rainfall and runoff pairs. The ANN model was t r ai ned using
t he resul t i ng runoff and rainfall dai l y dat a. The dat abase was collected by t he Rabat hydraul i c
admi ni st r at i on.
The i nput vect or is represent ed by rainfall and runoff values for t he preceding seven days, (i.e.,
t - 1, t - 2, t - 3, t - 4, t - 5, t - 6, t - 7) as well as t he rainfall value expect ed for day t.
Accordingly, t he out put vect or represents t he expect ed runoff value for day t (Qt).
4. R E S U L T S A N D D I S C U S S I O N S
The dat abase compiled represents seven years dai l y sets of rai nfai l -runoff values for t he Ouri ka
Wadi basin. In t hi s paper, we used t he dat a for t he l ast year (1996) for model t est i ng, while t he
ot her remai ni ng da t a (1990 t o 1995) was used for model t r ai ni ng/ cal i br at i on. The t r ai ni ng phase
of ANN model was t er mi nat ed when t he average squared error (ASE) on t he t est i ng dat abases
was mi ni mal .
The goal of t he t r ai ni ng process is t o reach an opt i mal sol ut i on based on some performance
measur ement s such as ASE, coefficient of det er mi nat i on known as R-square value (R2), and t he
MARE.
Therefore, requi red ANN model was developed in two phases: t r ai ni ng (cal i brat i on) phase, and
t est i ng (generalization or val i dat i on) phase.
In t he t r ai ni ng phase, a larger part for dat abase (six years) was used t o t r ai n t he net work
and t he remai ni ng par t of t he dat abase (one year) is used in t he t est i ng phase. Test i ng sets are
Rai nfal l -Runoff Model 843
Tabl e 1. St at i st i cal accuracy measures of t hi s net work model at t est i ng and t r ai ni ng
phases.
ASE R 2 MARE
Trai ni ng Phase 0.000076 0.948 1.029%
Test i ng Phase 0.000007 0.917 1.524%
180
160
120
~ 8o
,- 60
40
20
0
180
160
. , ~ 14o
~ 120
,~ 100
~ 60
40
T r a in in g p h a i ~
, , i t . / . Equa l i t y l i ne
, p . ~ , ~ . .
- , .~. 5 ~ - . . r .
/ ' . ~ i l r a " .
: " IR-- 0,948
u . o , i , , , , , , ,
0 2 0 4 0 6 0 80 I00 120 140 160 180
Actual flow (l~/S)
~ r a i n i n g p h a s e l . . . . . . . Predicted flow
Actual flow
Act ual fl ow (m3/ s)
Fi gur e 3. Compari son bet ween t he act ual and ANN predi ct ed flow values.
30
~
25
20
q~
15
~
~ lO
[ T e s t l n g p h a s e l . I s e ~
. j / Equa l i t y l i ne
le ~
m
I I
) mm
~ ' * [R=0,917
I I l I I I
5 I0 15 2 0 2 5 3 0
A c tu a l f l o w (m 3 /s)
844 S. RIAD et aL
30
' 25
20
' ~ 15
I T e s t i n g p h a s e ]
. . . . . . . Predicted flow
Actual flow
I
i
,..: ( ~'. b
Table 2.
testing phases.
(a) Training Phase
A c t u a l f l o w ( m ~ / s )
Figure 3. (cont.)
Statistical parameters of the predicted and actual flow at training and
Statistical Actual Flow Predicted Flow
Parameters (ma/s) (ma/s)
Average 9.79 9.70
Standard of 18.93 17.81
Deviation
Minimum 0 1.37
Maximum 184 187.17
Coefficient of 1.93 1.84
Variation
(b) Testing Phase
Statistical Actual Flow Predicted Flow
Parameters (ma/s) ( ma/ s )
Average 2,71 3.25
Standard of 4.33 3.96
Deviation
Minimum 0.10 1.38
Maximum 31.90 31.16
Coefficient of 1.60 1.22
Variation
usual l y used t o select t he best per f or mi ng net work model . I n t hi s research, t he ANN was opt i mal
at 600 i t er at i ons wi t h 12 hi dden nodes. The cor r espondi ng accur acy measur es of t hi s net wor k
model on t est i ng and t r ai ni ng dat a are gi ven i n t he following t abl e (Tabl e 1). General l y, accuracy
measur es on t r ai ni ng dat a are bet t er t ha n t hose on t est i ng dat a.
180
160 " . ,
~
140
120
l o o . ~. . .
8 0 ..,_ ~ ***.;.,._ ~ .
. 2
* . * * ~ * ~ -
60 . . . * X ~ . . * *
1
4 0 1 - * * R * 0 . , 1 1 *
20 .'* ~. I R = 0 , 9 2 4
F - - - I I I I I I I !
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Actual flow (m~/s)
Figure 4. Comparison between the a~tual and predicted flow values by multiple linear
regression (MLR).
Rainfall-Runoff Model 845
3O
,,,~, 25
~ 2o
15
5
E q u a l i t y l i n e

0 e . e ~
O . . o~r "
' 0 ~ [ R= 0,888
! u a u , ,
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Actual flow (m3/s)
Figure 4. (cont.)
Table 3. Comparison of correlation coefficients between actual and predicted flow by
ANN and MLR models.
ANN t MLR
R2
Training Phase 0.948 I 0.924
Testing Phase 0. 917 i 0.888
The comparison between the predicted and actual flow values at training and testing phases
show excellent agreement with the R 2 are respectively 0,948 and 0,917 (see Figure 3). Note that,
data pairs closer to the 45 line represent better prediction cases. The good performance and
convergence of the model are illustrated in Figure 3. The statistical parameters of the predicted
and actual values of flow for the entire database are practically identical (see Table 2).
]In order to evaluate the performance of the ANN, the multiple linear regression (MLR) tech-
nique was applied with the same data sets used in the ANN model. Figure 4 shows the compara-
tive results obtained by MLR technique. The R 2 values for MLR and ANN models are presented
in Table 3. Apparently, the ANN approach gives much better prediction t han the traditional
method (MLR).
5. CONCLUSI ON
The art i fi ci al neur al net wor k ( ANN) model s show good capabi l i t y t o model hydrol ogi cal pro-
cess. Th e y are useful and powerful t ool s t o handl e compl ex pr obl ems c ompa r e d wi t h t he ot her
t r adi t i onal model s. I n t hi s st udy, t he resul t s obt ai ned show cl earl y t ha t t he art i fi ci al neur al net -
works are capabl e of model r ai nf al l - r unof f r el at i onshi p in t he ari d and semi ar i d regi ons in whi ch
t he rai nfal l and r unof f are ver y i rregul ar, t hus, conf i r mi ng t he general e nha nc e me nt achi eved by
usi ng neur al net wor ks in ma n y ot her hydrol ogi cal fields.
The r esul t s and c ompa r a t i ve s t udy i ndi cat e t h a t t he art i fi ci al neur al net wor k me t hod is mor e
sui t abl e t o pr edi ct ri ver r unof f t ha n classical r egr essi on model . The ANN appr oach coul d pr ovi de
a ver y useful and accur at e t ool t o solve pr obl ems in wat er resources st udi es and ma na ge me nt .
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