1. Calculate the current stock price for Britannia based on a regression analysis of comparable companies enterprise value to asset ratios as of 2006. Explain carefully your choice of independent variables.
The question directs to conduct a regression analysis of comparable companies enterprise value to asset ratio (EV/TA) as of 2006.
Based on the given data* of Britannia Corp, we identify the drivers of the Enterprise Value to be Total Assets, OIBD, Leverage, and Sales.
*Note: In the absence of given data, we cannot use a factor for growth (Net Investments).
We do not include Net Income as a factor, since NI would have a high co-linearity with OIBD, which has already been chosen as a variable.
EV = B0 + B1(TA) + B2(OIBD) + B3(Leverage) +B4(Sales)
However, since multiple regression equations based on absulute do not exhibit robust econometric properties, we divide both sides of the equation by Total Assets.
To determine the sample space, we chose a set of suitable companies. The 2 factors to filter the companies were basically as below:
i. Choose the data for year 2006 only* ii. Choose companies which fall in the same industry as Britannia, based on the same SIC (4731) as that of Britannia. (Companies which are engaged in arranging transportation for freight and cargo services)
*Note: We take the data for 2006 only since market conditions including risk free rate, risk pricing, market expectations significantly vary over time, and thus prior years data may result in an incorrect outcome. As depicted later, even with just 2006 figures, we observe a high r squared number, and consistent results, thus eliminating the need to increase the sample space.
The above exercise leaves us with 14 companies, all of them corresponding to the year 2006.
k k k k k k k k k k Assets Leverage Assets OIBD Assets Sales Assets Assets EV
k k k k k k k k k k Assets Leverage Assets OIBD Assets Sales Assets Assets EV
4 3 2 1 0 1
EV 1,146,059
MVE 823,663
Share Price 30.529
The equation for regression line is as below:
2. Calculate the current stock price for Britannia with a traditional approach to valuation by multiples. Explain carefully your choice of comparable companies. Explain carefully your choice of bases for the multiples.
Ans 2. i. For traditional analysis, we start by looking at selection of companies comparable to Britannia out of the given data set of companies. Out of approximately 55 companies we first select the companies for which we have data available for the target year 2006. The SIC (Standard Industry Classification) of Britannia is 4731, so filtering the above resultant data set based on SIC (Standard Industry Classification), we get a final set of 14 companies which are comparable to Britannia.
ii. Next step is to select Multiples which we will use to run traditional analysis. We cannot choose Earnings multiple since the leverage of Britannia is 81%, which is very far from the range of leverage ratios that the selected companies have (they range from 0% to 37%). Since at high leverage, the earnings do not have the same Since we need to