For November 23rd 2009

Questions and suggestions? Contact me at market.techspeak@gmail.com

Any information contained in this document are based on or derived from information generally available to
the public from sources believed to be reliable. There’s no representation or warranty is made or implied that
it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This post has been
prepared solely for information purposes and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any
instrument, or to engage in any trading strategy.

CFD charts were generated using MetaTrader 4.0 with price data obtained from Google Finance.
FX charts were generated using Alpari UK’s MetaTrader 4.0.
Beta numbers are obtained from Reuters.com.
 EURUSD

Instead of heading upwards in line with my expectation last week, the pair went sideways and
barely made any progress at all. There have been some adjustments on the chart, with the support
now lies at 1.4786, just nearby the rising channel bottom. Lower supports are seen around 1.4701-
1.4725 with the pivotal point at 1.4617/1.4625.

If EURUSD slips below 1.4625, a double top pattern will be confirmed, bringing some 400 pips
additional losses to the pair below 1.4625. It appears that the recent sideways pattern could have
been a 5-legged flat correction of the rally from 1.4625 to 1.5048. Looking inside this flat
correction, the fifth leg should have been completed on Friday and that the pair may as well
continue its way upwards early next week.

Under this assumption, the bias is up and that long position can be established while the pair stays
above 1.4786. If the rising price channel is broken, the risk is that EURUSD will be pulled back
downwards to retest 1.4625 low. Stop could be placed below 1.4786 although it would be better to
add some tolerance as well to avoid false breakouts. The objective is seen at 1.5048/1.5059 first,
then 1.5159 and up to 1.5200.
 GBPUSD

GBPUSD hit the target nicely as it reached 1.6870. It was unfortunate that last Monday no dip was
offered to us as the pair opened up with a gap. With the price now continues to retreat from the
high of 1.6877, the focus had shifted back to the downside.

Approximately 61.8% of gains from 1.6261 had been lost this week, and it is likely that the slide
may continue next week towards the 76.4% retracement level at 1.6398. Beyond this there is only
the crucial low at 1.6261. Upside, there isn’t many resistance to cap in the near-term. The best
point of reference will be Friday’s high at 1.6675, assuming that cable had established a
consecutive lower-low and lower-high for the last four days. Breaking the Friday’s peak will negate
this pattern and probably ease up the current bearish pressure.

Since the direction is now down, look to short on rallies but maintaining stop just above 1.6675.
The objective will be the next Fibonacci level at 1.6398 and then the key support at 1.6261. Near
1.6261 we may consider exiting the position and probably switching to enter long as the risk
becomes increasingly low as we head towards 1.6261.
 USDJPY

Apparently it wasn’t the greenback who turned out to be the weakest, but it was yen who managed
to gained against the greenback. Despite its strength, USDJPY only managed to push towards
88.63. The fall seemed to be slow as it barely made any progress downwards since last Monday.

Nevertheless, the pair closed the week at 88.87, the lowest since it visited the 88.00 handle during
early October. Next support is seen at 88.42 and then the 88.00 itself. Friday’s attempt upwards
was capped at 89.09, so this will be the first resistance for next week. More resistances are seen at
89.37 and 89.61, but the key turning point will be 90.60. Above this, the bears will have to wait for
another chance before it could attempt another push below 88.00.

To enter short may a bit discouraging at the current price level as it would offer little room for
gains. So it would be best to either wait on the sidelines, or to wait for corrective rally between
89.09-89.61. Small short may be attempted but with very tight stop above 89.13 on the notion that
the pair had established a consecutive lower high pattern since 90.60 and above Friday’s high will
naturally turn the direction upwards for a while. Targets for short positions could be set at around
88.00-88.42. Again, this trade idea has very small room for maneuvering, anyone trying to play this
one will have to be extra cautious.
 Mitsubishi Estate Co. Ltd. (TYO:8802)

Beta: 1.48

Mitsubishi Estate bounced off its projection target at ¥1,249 on Friday and settled the day in a
bullish candle. Despite this however, the stock closed significantly lower on the weekly basis and
as seen on the chart, the zigzag structure heading downwards remains intact.

Resistance nearby is seen at ¥1,305 former swing low, then ¥1,381 the peak of the week. Below
¥1,249 the 61.8% retracement level at ¥1,198 will be the next support. It is to be noted that at
¥1,133 we have multiple technical level intertwined altogether, suggesting a strong support to be
found there.

Friday might have ended in a bullish candle, but overall the outlook remains bearish. Thus, look to
enter short while below ¥1,381 with stop set above ¥1,381 and targets set at ¥1,198 and ¥1,133.
 CITIC Pacific Ltd. (HKG:0267)

Beta: 1.79

CITIC ended the week on a weak note at 21.15. So far the rise from 19.64 has been retraced by
nearly 61.8% with the 76.4% retracement level is seen at 20.38. The structure from 24.25 seems
to be either 3-3-3 or 3-3-5. The first leg had been completed from 24.25 to 19.32, while the second
had ended at 22.80 and the last leg is still in progress.

If the third leg equals the first, we may see a fall towards 17.88, just below 18.19 the 61.8%
retracement level of the rise from 14.44 to 24.25. The structure could also develop into a 5-legged
triangle pattern with 3-3-3-3-3 structure. Should this be the case, the trendline from 19.32 towards
19.64 may be the next bouncing point for CITIC. The price will be at 19.90 on the trendline in the
coming session.

At any case, the bias is currently down, so look to short CITIC with stop above 22.80 and the target
set at 19.90 first. Once there, either exit or trail the stop in anticipation of a 3x5 structure to
materialize instead of 3-3-5. To confirm the 3-3-5 we will have to see the support at 19.32/19.64 to
be broken. Once broken, the remaining short position may set 17.88 as the objective.
 Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Tbk. (JSX:BBRI)

Beta: 1.24

BBRI’s repeated attempts to break through 7,750 remains unsuccessful so far this week as the
stock ended Friday at 7,700. Currently stuck at the 50% retracement level and the 0.618x
projection target at 7,750, the stock however could finally be successful in the coming week.

Critical support comes at 6,800 but a minor support at 7,200 may limit the downside as the first
line of defense. As long as this support holds, the path towards 7,950 and subsequent targets will
remain open for BBRI. Beyond 8,700 we have 9,950 and 10,650 awaiting to be tested.

The bullish bias will be seriously dented should the price sinks below 6,800. Under this scenario, a
return move towards 5,550 can not be ruled out. At any rate, look to enter long position with stop
set below either 7,200 or 6,800. Targets will be between 7,950 to 8,400 for now.
 Medco Energy International, Tbk. (JSX:MEDC)

Beta: 1.04

Finally reaching the 23.6% retracement at 2,775, MEDC looks set to hit 2,875, 2,975, 3,075 and
3,200 later on. Note that we have a descending trendline that stretches from 3,825 – 3,400. This
line could once again, block the move higher towards 3,400 and 3,825.

Support will be none other than 2,575 and afterwards, 2,425 and 2,100. Long positions may be
taken once the price dips a little, with stop set below 2575.
 MARKET DATA – November 20th 2009
JAPAN - NIKKEI 225 Open High Low Close Prv Dy Dy Chg Prv Wk Wk Chg
Advantest Corp. 2,050 2,060 2,020 2,030 2,090 -2.87% 1,975 2.78%
Canon Inc. 3,340 3,410 3,330 3,400 3,350 1.49% 3,420 -0.58%
Daikin Industries Ltd. 3,160 3,200 3,160 3,200 3,210 -0.31% 3,250 -1.54%
Honda Motor Co. Ltd 2,700 2,725 2,670 2,725 2,740 -0.55% 2,900 -6.03%
Kyocera Corp 7,010 7,060 6,940 7,040 7,110 -0.98% 7,290 -3.43%
Mitsubishi Estate Co. Ltd 1,248 1,281 1,239 1,270 1,268 0.16% 1,337 -5.01%
Nikon Corp 1,608 1,615 1,557 1,592 1,638 -2.81% 1,694 -6.02%
Nippon Oil Corp 372 380 370 380 381 -0.26% 403 -5.71%
Nippon Steel Corp 311 319 311 318 316 0.63% 335 -5.07%
Nissan Motor Co Ltd 624 627 609 621 639 -2.82% 661 -6.05%
Sony Corp 2,390 2,430 2,375 2,410 2,470 -2.43% 2,550 -5.49%
Sumitomo Metal Industries Ltd 215 221 215 217 220 -1.36% 229 -5.24%
TDK Corp 4,640 4,710 4,580 4,650 4,690 -0.85% 5,030 -7.55%
Tokyo Electron Ltd 4,910 4,980 4,840 4,860 5,010 -2.99% 4,900 -0.82%
Toyota Motor Corp 3,440 3,470 3,400 3,440 3,490 -1.43% 3,510 -1.99%
Nikkei 225 9,460.21 9,513.60 9,423.66 9,497.68 9,549.47 -0.54% 9,770.31 -2.79%

HONG KONG - HANG SENG INDEX Open High Low Close Prv Dy Dy Chg Prv Wk Wk Chg
Bank of China 4.70 4.75 4.68 4.72 4.73 -0.21% 4.83 -2.28%
Bank of Communications 9.66 9.67 9.52 9.60 9.69 -0.93% 9.72 -1.23%
Bank of East Asia 32.20 33.25 32.20 33.10 32.65 1.38% 32.80 0.91%
BOC Hongkong Ltd 19.04 19.20 18.74 18.78 19.16 -1.98% 19.46 -3.49%
Cathay Pacific Air 13.64 13.74 13.46 13.52 13.80 -2.03% 13.46 0.45%
China Construction Bank Corp. 7.15 7.17 7.05 7.11 7.16 -0.70% 7.14 -0.42%
China Life Insurance Company Ltd. 38.05 38.90 38.00 38.45 38.60 -0.39% 38.75 -0.77%
China Merchants Holdings Co. Ltd. 25.15 25.20 24.85 24.90 25.25 -1.39% 26.70 -6.74%
China Mobile 77.20 77.20 76.50 76.55 77.45 -1.16% 73.80 3.73%
China Overseas Land & Investment 16.70 16.82 16.64 16.74 16.80 -0.36% 17.08 -1.99%
China Petroleum& Chemical Corp. 6.80 6.81 6.65 6.67 6.84 -2.49% 6.82 -2.20%
China Resources Enterprise, Ltd. 25.60 25.60 24.80 24.85 25.60 -2.93% 25.75 -3.50%
China Shenhua Energy Co. Ltd. 38.25 38.50 37.80 38.30 38.85 -1.42% 38.70 -1.03%
China TelecomCorporation Ltd. 3.51 3.55 3.48 3.49 3.55 -1.69% 3.55 -1.69%
CITIC Pacific Ltd. 21.30 21.50 21.05 21.15 21.40 -1.17% 22.00 -3.86%
COSCO Pacific Ltd. 11.10 11.24 10.92 11.06 11.22 -1.43% 11.16 -0.90%
Esprit Holdings 53.35 53.90 53.30 53.30 53.20 0.19% 52.70 1.14%
Foxconn International Holdings Ltd. 6.67 6.68 6.56 6.60 6.70 -1.49% 6.70 -1.49%
Hang Lung Properties Ltd. 31.05 31.05 29.65 30.00 30.95 -3.07% 30.75 -2.44%
Henderson Land Development Co. Ltd. 54.10 54.65 53.65 54.30 54.95 -1.18% 53.80 0.93%
HK Electric Holdings Ltd. 41.90 42.20 41.90 42.15 41.85 0.72% 42.20 -0.12%
Hong Kong & China Gas Company Ltd. 18.44 18.72 18.40 18.70 18.64 0.32% 18.54 0.86%
Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. 53.95 54.10 53.45 53.55 54.25 -1.29% 54.50 -1.74%
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. 6.76 6.78 6.70 6.75 6.86 -1.60% 6.81 -0.88%
MTR Corporation Ltd. 26.80 26.95 26.75 26.90 26.95 -0.19% 27.35 -1.65%
New World Development Company Ltd. 16.00 16.18 15.98 16.18 16.20 -0.12% 16.52 -2.06%
PetroChina Company Ltd. 9.98 10.02 9.87 9.95 10.08 -1.29% 9.95 0.00%
Ping An Insurance Company of China Ltd. 70.50 71.05 69.50 70.25 71.20 -1.33% 72.50 -3.10%
Sino Land Co. Ltd. 14.26 14.32 14.04 14.32 14.24 0.56% 14.40 -0.56%
Wharf Holdings Ltd. 40.60 41.30 40.25 40.45 41.50 -2.53% 41.45 -2.41%
Hang Seng Index 22,486.56 22,894.84 22,376.36 22,455.84 22,643.16 -0.83% 22,553.63 -0.43%
 Indonesia - Jakarta Stock Exchange Open High Low Close Prv Dy Dy Chg Prv Wk Wk Chg
Astra Agro Lestari Tbk 22,650 22,700 22,350 22,650 22,650 0.00% 22,150 2.26%
Adaro Energy Tbk 1,680 1,710 1,660 1,700 1,680 1.19% 1,620 4.94%
Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk 2,350 2,425 2,325 2,400 2,375 1.05% 2,275 5.49%
Astra International Tbk 33,150 33,450 32,900 33,250 33,250 0.00% 32,700 1.68%
Bank Central Asia Tbk 4,700 4,750 4,675 4,700 4,700 0.00% 4,750 -1.05%
Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk 1,950 1,990 1,950 1,980 1,950 1.54% 1,970 0.51%
Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk 7,550 7,750 7,550 7,700 7,650 0.65% 7,450 3.36%
Bank Danamon Tbk 4,450 4,525 4,400 4,500 4,425 1.69% 4,450 1.12%
Berlian Laju Tanker Tbk 680 690 680 680 680 0.00% 700 -2.86%
Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk 4,700 4,750 4,675 4,725 4,725 0.00% 4,700 0.53%
Barito Pacific Tbk 1,360 1,380 1,340 1,380 1,370 0.73% 1,390 -0.72%
Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk 770 850 770 850 770 10.39% 770 10.39%
Bakrie TelecomTbk 147 158 146 157 148 6.08% 129 21.71%
Bumi Resources Tbk 2,675 2,825 2,650 2,825 2,625 7.62% 2,450 15.31%
Central Proteinaprima Tbk 72 74 71 72 73 -1.37% 66 9.09%
Ciputra Property Tbk 275 285 275 285 280 1.79% 285 0.00%
Bakrieland Development Tbk 285 295 280 295 285 3.51% 285 3.51%
Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk 3,175 3,225 3,175 3,200 3,200 0.00% 3,100 3.23%
Indika Energy Tbk 2,175 2,225 2,150 2,225 2,175 2.30% 2,175 2.30%
Indocement Tunggal Prakasa Tbk 11,900 11,950 11,850 11,900 11,900 0.00% 11,600 2.59%
Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk 26,300 27,000 26,200 26,750 26,450 1.13% 25,650 4.29%
Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk 1,900 1,910 1,880 1,890 1,900 -0.53% 1,850 2.16%
Kawasan Industri Jababeka Tbk 125 127 124 126 125 0.80% 129 -2.33%
Kalbe Farma Tbk 1,290 1,300 1,280 1,300 1,290 0.78% 1,290 0.78%
Lippo Karawaci Tbk 570 580 550 570 570 0.00% 620 -8.06%
PP London Sumatera Tbk 7,850 7,950 7,800 7,850 7,900 -0.63% 7,750 1.29%
Medco Energi International Tbk 2,675 2,775 2,650 2,775 2,700 2.78% 2,625 5.71%
Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk 3,825 3,875 3,825 3,875 3,825 1.31% 3,625 6.90%
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam 15,000 15,600 15,000 15,550 15,000 3.67% 14,550 6.87%
HolcimIndonesia Tbk 1,640 1,650 1,630 1,640 1,650 -0.61% 1,610 1.86%
Semen Gresik (Persero) Tbk 7,450 7,550 7,400 7,400 7,450 -0.67% 7,150 3.50%
Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk 9,000 9,100 8,950 9,000 9,000 0.00% 8,750 2.86%
Truba AlamManunggal E. Tbk 147 152 146 149 149 0.00% 123 21.14%
Bakrie Sumatra Plantations Tbk 790 820 780 810 800 1.25% 760 6.58%
United Tractors Tbk 15,650 15,700 15,500 15,600 15,650 -0.32% 15,550 0.32%
JSX Composite 2,468.26 2,490.30 2,458.63 2,487.37 2,468.79 0.75% 2,426.80 2.50%