Consulting

2010
PVC markets of Europe
and South-East Asia: analysis
of proftability and production cost
2
PVC markets of Europe and South-East Asia: analysis of protability and production cost 3
Table of contents
Executive Summary 2

Approach to comparative analysis 3

Overview of PVC production sector 5

Global distribution of PVC production capacities 5

Types of VCM / PVC production processes 7

Pricing 8

Choosing the companies 9

European PVC producers 9

PVC producers in the South-East Asia 10

Results of comparison 11

Conclusions 13

Appendix 14
4
The goal of the work is a comparative analysis of production
cost and contribution margin of ethylene-based PVC
production facilities of Europe and South-East Asia.
The analysis revealed the following:
The European PVC production contribution margin
varies from 56,7 to 247,9 Euro / ton of PVC (excluding
PVC production at Rmnicu Vlcea facility that is facing
negative contribution margin) and averages at 136,45
Euro / ton of PVC subject to the current average capacity
utilization level of 67%. The potentially achievable
contribution margin considering existing technologies
and prevailing prices 190,85 Euro / ton of PVC.
PVC production contribution margin in South-East Asia is
negative (65,10 Euro / ton of PVC). It is caused by the
low capacity utilization (52% in 2009, including 44%
in China). Subject to the full capacity utilization under
prevailing prices the PVC production contribution margin
is estimated at 81,47 Euro / ton of PVC.
Executive
Summary
PVC markets of Europe and South-East Asia: analysis of protability and production cost 5
* Vinnolit data
* Uhde data
Approach to
comparative analysis
1. Due to the lack of publicly available data
on production costs and contribution margin of PVC
production along with some indicators required
for their evaluation, a number of parameters were
estimated indirectly. To ensure a solid approach to
analysis and practicality of our results we have analyzed
the companies that meet the following criteria:
All the plants under review accommodate chlorine,
VCM, and PVC production facilities;
We have analyzed companies that produce
suspension PVC and employ some of the most
commonly used production cycles by Vinnolit,
INEOS, Shin-Etsu, or Chisso.
2. The production cost of PVC has been estimated
using information on the capacity of PVC producers
and data on materials / power balance of the applied
production scheme. For instance for the factory
in Burghausen, Germany (Vinnolit) :
a) Capacity: 214,000 ton of PVC/year;
b) Raw materials and energy:
Expected consumption gures per 1 ton of PVC
Ethylene (100%) 460 kg
Chlorine (100%) 585 kg
Oxygen (100%) 139 kg
Steam 925 kg
Power consumption 290 kW h
Cooling water 152.3 m
c) Basing on a) and b) feedstock requirements for the
production of 214,000 ton of PVC are calculated;
d) The cost of feedstock required for PVC production
was estimated basing on data from ofcial sources:
trading oors, publishing houses, research agencies;
e) The cost items not quantied in the materials
/ power balance (General Production Costs,
for example) were estimated with the involvement
of the sector experts knowledgeable in specic
features of production processes applied by the
producers in question or by comparison with peers;
f) The production cost is estimated by aggregating
all the applicable costs estimated at d) and e).
3. The estimate was made according to the
following formula:
Contribution margin =
Proceeds Production cost
,
Actual PVC Production
where:
The production cost is estimated at clause 2;
The proceeds were calculated as a cost of sales
of products made by the production facility
operating in the mode that provides for output at
the installed capacity level and at the price equivalent
to the average price for the period in question.
6
* Harriman data
* Technical progresses
for PVC production
by Y. Saeki and T. Emura,
Polymer BREF
(Stuttgart-University)
* CMAI data
Global distribution of PVC production capacities
Asia and Europe are the leading regions in terms of PVC
production capacities along with China accounting for
the bulk of PVC production in Asia (65%).
The aggregate global PVC production capacities
by the end 2009 amounted to 47,972,000 ton/
year. The regional distribution of these capacities
is shown at Fig. 1 and Appendix (Table 1).
Overview of PVC
production sector
20%
18%
17%
3%
3%
1%
1%
0%
37%
Asia (China)
Asia (without China)
Europe
North America
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
Russia
Oceania
20%
18%
17%
3%
3%
1%
1%
0%
37%
Asia (China)
Asia (without China)
Europe
North America
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
Russia
Oceania
Fig. 2. Global production by region, 2009
The highest PVC production falls at Asia and
Europe with more than a half of Asian PVC
produced in China (51%).
Fig. 1. Global production capacities by region, 2009
Global PVC production by end 2009 achieved
the level of 29,924,000 ton/year that is equivalent
to the utilization level of 62%. Breakdown of production
is shown at Fig. 2 and the Appendix (Table 2).
PVC markets of Europe and South-East Asia: analysis of protability and production cost 7
Accordingly the capacity utilization ratio by regions is as follows (Fig. 3):
Fig. 3 Utilization of PVC production capacities in various regions, 2009
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
7734
44%
Asia
(China)
Asia
(without China)
North
America
Europe Latin
America
Middle
East
Russia Africa Oceania
7400
79%
6020
75%
5699
67%
1300
84%
53%
93%
54%
77%
Production, '000 ton / year
Idle capacities
Utilization level
8
Fig. 6. Mixed approach to VCM production from ethylene and acetylene
CI
2
Ethylene
HCI VCM
Direct chlorination Thermal decomposition of EDC
Oxychlorination Acetylene
CI
2
Ethylene
EDC
HCI
VCM
Recycling of EDC
Oxygen
Direct chlorination
Oxychlorination
EDC distillation
EDC thermal decomposition
HCI
VCM
Acetylene
Oxychlorination
Fig. 4. Production of VCM from ethylene and chlorine (a chlorine balanced approach)
Fig. 5. VCM production from acetylene
Types of VCM / PVC production processes
The raw materials for production of PVC is vinyl chloride monomer (VCM). Depending on the feed materials used for
the VCM production there are three main types of VCM crackers: ethylene based, acetylene based and mixed type.
PVC markets of Europe and South-East Asia: analysis of protability and production cost 9
Ethylene-feed crackers use ethylene and chlorine as
raw materials which are then used for production of
ethylene dichloride (EDC) which, in its turn, is processed
into VCM. Oxychlorination allows utilisation of chlorine
overstock produced during the main process.
As for the acetylene-feed crackers it employs calcium
carbide (usually produced from limestone and coking
coals) as the feedstock, forming acetylene when mixed
with water. This acetylene is then proceeds for the vinyl
chloride monomer production.
The mixed approach implies joint application of these
two types of crackers with the hydrogen chloride produced
from ethylene being used further to react with acetylene.
The received VCM is then polymerized using one of the
four methods: suspension, emulsion, in the bulk or in
solution. The suspension polymerization is the most
common VCM polymerization method in the world.
Due to relatively easy access to hydrocarbons
in Europe VCM production there usually employs
ethylene and chlorine feed crackers.
In South-East Asia, mainly in China, the bulk of
VCM production is oriented at acetylene consumption.
This fact is caused by the lower (as compared
to Europe) availability of hydrocarbons as well
as by huge reserves of coking coals and limestone
used for the production of calcium carbide which,
in its turn, is used for the acetylene production.
Pricing
The PVC production cost depends on key types
of production expenses: raw materials (ethylene,
chlorine, acetylene) and processing, with power
costs as the latters key driver.
In Europe the key price driver is the price for
ethylene as it accounts for ~45-55% of the
PVC production cost when the ethylene-based
production approach is applied.
In Asia PVC prices are greatly inuenced by the
PVC prices in China and therefore, in addition
to ethylene prices, the cost of acetylene widely
used for the PVC production purposes in China
is of growing importance in the region.
10
Choosing
the companies
European PVC producers
In 2009 the European PVC producers reached
the capacity of 9,150,000 ton of which PVC
produced from ethylene accounted for 98%
(8,989,000 ton) of the total output and that
produced from acetylene - 2%. The ethylene based
PVC production capacities in their turn can be broken
down to suspension PVC production (8,105,000 ton,
90% of the ethylene based PVC production) and
emulsion PVC production (884,000,000 ton or 10%).
PVC production leaders are as follows: Ineos
(18% of European PVC production capacities),
Solvin (16%), Arkema (10%), Vinnolit (9%),
Shin-Etsu (7.5%) and LVM (5%) (see the Appendix,
g.1). The diagram with key European producers of the
suspension PVC is presented in the Appendix (Fig. 2).
Ethylene based PVC production market players
may be present at all three stages of PVC
production (production of chlorine and sodium
hydroxide as by-product from sodium chloride,
production of ethylene dichloride by direct
chlorination and oxychlorination of ethylene,
production of vinyl chloride from ethylene
dichloride, production of PVC by VCM
polymerization), as well as any one of them.
Typical feature is the presence of ethylene dichloride
production in close proximity with the chlorine
production facilities and as the chlorine transportation
may be difcult the ethylene is most often bought
from ethylene producers. In addition the capacities
may not correspond with each other at different
stages and the companies may use self-produced
semi-nished products (chlorine, ethylene, EDC, VCM)
and purchase these components at the same time.
For the purposes of reviewing the European
production let us select the companies that
integrate all the PVC production stages from chlorine
production to VCM polymerization using both
its own and purchased ethylene materials. Such
producers are listed in the Appendix, Table 3.
PVC producers in the South-East Asia
China is the key PVC producer in the South-East
Asia and the whole world. It is also the worlds
No. 1 in terms of PVC production capacities:
in 2009 the aggregate capacity achieved the
level of 19,890,000 ton / year, that is 37% of the
worlds total capacity). However such a high level
is achieved due to large investments in construction
of new production facilities prior to the global
nancial crisis. 2009 saw the aggregate utilization
ratio of the PVC production in China reach 44%
(in Europe this factor amounted to 68%, in other
Asian countries 79%; while the production
in China in 2009 totaled 7,734,000 ton / year
or 26% of the global production level).
* Harriman, CMAI, Platts,
Vinnolit, Chisso, INEOS,
Technical progresses for PVC
production by Y. Saeki and
T. Emura, Deloitte analysis
PVC markets of Europe and South-East Asia: analysis of protability and production cost 11
PVC production in China is represented by two key
types: an acetylene based and ethylene based and the
former type prevails. The acetylene-based approach uses
calcium carbide (as a rule produced from calcareous
rock and coking coals which are more readily available
in China than hydrocarbons) as key raw materials.
Calcium carbide is used to produce acetylene which
in its turn is used for the vinyl chloride monomer
production In addition there are mixed type production
facilities in China where the mix of vinyl chloride
produced from acetylene and vinyl chloride produced
from ethylene is polymerized. By end 2010 the capacity
of PVC production from acetylene is expected to achieve
16,100,000 ton / year (81% of the total PVC production
capacities in China), the capacity of PVC production
from ethylene 3,040,000 ton / year (15%), that of
mixed type production 750,000 ton / year (4%).
Six key producers of PVC from ethylene may
be selected in China (Appendix, Fig. 3) with all
of them integrating the entire production chain
from chlorine production to the polymerization.
The remaining PVC production in the region
originates mainly from Japan, Taiwan and South
Korea. The largest facilities there belong to
Asahimas Chemical (ASC, majority owned by
Japanese Asahi Glass), LG Chemical Ltd from
South Korea, Formosa Plastics from Taiwan as
well as Shin-Etsu from Japan. These four countries
account for 81% of production and 86% of capacities
in the South-East Asia (see Appendix, Fig. 4).
12
Results
of comparison
Results of Deloitte calculations are shown in Table 1
Table 1. Economic performance per 1 ton of PVC
PVC price,
EUR / ton
PVC
production
cost, EUR /
ton
Ethylene,
EUR / ton of
PVC
Chlorine,
EUR / ton of
PVC
Processing,
EUR / ton of
PVC
Utilization
ratio, % of
installed
capacity
Contribution
margin, Euro
/ ton of PVC
Europe average 1 057 866 434 161 271 if 100% 190,85
South East Asia average 730 673 323 100 250 if 100% 81,47
Table 2. Economic performance calculated on the basis of monthly production of PVC with breakdown by producers
PVC sales,
EUR 000
PVC
production
cost, EUR
000
Ethylene,
EUR 000
Chlorine,
EUR 000
Processing,
EUR 000
Utilization
ratio, % of
installed
capacity
Contribution
margin, Euro
/ ton of PVC
Gendorf, Germany 7 647 6 499 3 138 1 164 2 196 82% 158,78
Runcorn, UK 9 427 7 405 3 539 1 313 2 553 78% 247,93
Burghausen, Germany 9 617 8 174 3 947 1 465 2 762 82% 158,78
Tarragona, Spain 9 076 8 540 4 103 1 523 2 915 80% 56,69
Neratovice, Czech Republic 10 762 9 132 4 421 1 640 3 071 83% 160,03
Cologne, Germany 11 352 9 647 4 659 1 729 3 260 82% 158,78
Porsgrunn, Norway 11 282 9 620 4 634 1 719 3 267 81% 155,6
Stenungsund, Sweden 12 679 10 635 5 208 1 932 3 494 88% 170,38
Knapsack, Germany 12 613 10 719 5 176 1 921 3 622 82% 158,78
Rheinberg, Germany 19 235 16 347 7 894 2 929 5 524 82% 158,78
Tavaux, France 21 313 18 245 8 788 3 261 6 196 81% 151,51
Balan, France 23 871 20 434 9 843 3 652 6 939 81% 151,51
Marl, Germany 24 674 20 970 10 126 3 757 7 086 82% 158,78
Wilhelmshaven, Germany 25 226 21 439 10 353 3 841 7 245 82% 158,78
Kazincbarcika, Hungary 26 510 23 417 10 889 4 041 8 488 69% 123,25
Jemeppe, Belgium 34 876 29 856 14 381 5 336 10 139 81% 151,51
Rmnicu Vlcea, Romania 12 967 14 933 5 326 1 976 7 631 30% -160,24
Europe average 136,45
Hebei Jinniu Chemical, China 3 342 3 781 1 488 458 1 835 44% -65,10
LG Dagu, China 11 626 13 150 5 175 1 592 6 383 44% -65,10
Tianjin Dagu, China 13 370 15 122 5 951 1 831 7 341 44% -65,10
Shanghai Chlor-Alka, China 13 660 15 451 6 080 1 871 7 500 44% -65,10
Sinopec Qilu Co. Ltd., China 17 438 19 725 7 762 2 388 9 575 44% -65,10
South East Asia average -65,10
PVC markets of Europe and South-East Asia: analysis of protability and production cost 13
Average contribution margin of PVC production
in Europe is 136,45 Euro / ton of PVC. Excluding
non-protable PVC production at Rmnicu
Vlcea (Romania) the contribution margin
is within the range between 56,7 Euro / ton
of PVC (Tarragona, Spain) and 247,9 Euro / ton of
PVC (Runcorn, UK). Subject to existing technologies
and prevailing prices potentially achievable
contribution margin will be 190,85 Euro / ton of PVC.
Given the existing capacity utilization ratio
(52%, including 44% for China) the PVC
production contribution margin in South-East
Asia is negative (65,10 Euro / ton of PVC)
for all the companies discussed. Subject to
the full capacity utilization under prevailing
prices the PVC production contribution margin
is estimated at 81,47 Euro / ton of PVC.
Conclusions
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Table 1. Structure of PVC production capacities
in the world, 2009
Capacities, 2009 000 ton / year
Asia (China) 17 700 37%
Asia (ex China) 9 367 20%
Europe 8 551 18%
Russia 627 1%
North America 8 013 17%
Latin America 1 541 3%
Near East 1 393 3%
Africa 650 1%
Oceania 130 <1%
Total 47 972 100%
Table 2. Structure of global PVC production
by regions, 2009
Production, 2009 000 ton / year
Asia (China) 7 734 26%
Asia (ex China) 7 400 25%
Europe 6 280 21%
North America 6 020 20%
Latin America 1 300 4%
Near East 740 2%
Africa 350 1%
Oceania 100 <1%
Total 29 924 100%
Total 47 972 100%
* Harriman data
* CMAI data, Stream Report
Fig. 1 Contribution margin of PVC production in Europe and Asia, 2009
European producers Maximum feasible contribution margin of PVC production in Europe, 2009
Chinese producers Maximum feasible contribution margin of PVC production in Asia, 2009
1
2
1
2
14
Fig. 2. Production and total capacity of fully integrated suspension PVC production facilities in Europe,
000 ton / year, 2009
* CMAI data, Stream Report
* Harriman data
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Solvin Ineos Vinyls Vinnolit Borsodchem Vestolit Arkema Oltchim Spolana
(Anwil)
Ercros
969
730
400
523
313 308
450
135
130
787
602
276
429
257 249
135
112
104
Fig. 1. PVC production leaders in Europe, 000 ton / year, 2009
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Ineos Solvin Arkema Vinnolit Shin-Etsu LVM Oltchim Vestolit Borsodchem Anwill SA
1,443
857
786
643
486
443
429
400
337
Appendix
Production, '000 ton / year
Idle capacities
1,586
PVC markets of Europe and South-East Asia: analysis of protability and production cost 15
Fig. 3. Suspension PVC production capacities in China (ethylene based), 000 ton / year, 2009
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
800
600
400
370
250
115
Fig. 4. PVC production and total capacity in Asia, 000 ton / year, 2009
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
China Japan Taiwan South Korea
17,700
2,393
1,754
1,498
7,734
1,750
1,470
1,295
Production, '000 ton / year
Idle capacities
Hebei Jinniu
Chemical
Tosoh
(Guangzhou)
Chemical
Industries
Shanghai
Chlor-Alkali
Chemical
LG Sinopec
Qilu
Tianjin Dagu
Chemical
16
Producer Location Established in Capacity
growth
Utilization %
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2009
Solvin Jemeppe, Belgium 1949 450 81%
Oltchim Rmnicu Vlcea, Romania 1970 36 U 450 30%
Borsodchem Kazincbarcika, Hungary 1963 6 150 400 69%
Ineos Vinyls Wilhelmshaven,
Germany
1980 320 82%
Vestolit Marl, Germany n/a 313 82%
Arkema Balan, France n/a 308 81%
Solvin Tavaux, France 1953 275 81%
Solvin Rheinberg, Germany 1958 244 82%
Vinnolit Knapsack, Germany n/a 160 82%
Ineos Vinyls Stenungsund, Sweden 1967 70 110 150 88%
Ineos Vinyls Porsgrunn, Norway 1950 55 U 80 145 81%
Vinnolit Cologne, Germany n/a 144 82%
Spolana (Anwil) Neratovice, Czech Republic n/a 135 83%
Ercros Tarragona, Spain n/a 130 80%
Vinnolit Burghausen, Germany n/a 122 82%
Ineos Vinyls Runcorn, UK n/a 115 78%
Vinnolit Gendorf, Germany n/a 97 82%
Tianjin Dagu Chemical Co. Ltd. China 1939 280 480 680 240 460 44%
LG Dagu Chemical Ltd. China 1995 240 340 340 400 400 44%
Sinopec Qilu Co. Ltd. China 1966 230 600 600 600 600 44%
Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co., Ltd. China 1992 320 390 430 470 470 44%
Tosoh (Guangzhou) Chem Industries Inc China 2007 - - - 220 250 44%
Hebei Jinniu hemical China 1979 299 299 295 230 115 44%
* Upgrade of existing
capacities
* Mixed type
(ethylene + acetylene)
processing capacities
* Harriman, CMAI data,
Deloitte analysis
PVC markets of Europe and South-East Asia: analysis of protability and production cost 17
Producer Location Established in Capacity
growth
Utilization %
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2009
Solvin Jemeppe, Belgium 1949 450 81%
Oltchim Rmnicu Vlcea, Romania 1970 36 U 450 30%
Borsodchem Kazincbarcika, Hungary 1963 6 150 400 69%
Ineos Vinyls Wilhelmshaven,
Germany
1980 320 82%
Vestolit Marl, Germany n/a 313 82%
Arkema Balan, France n/a 308 81%
Solvin Tavaux, France 1953 275 81%
Solvin Rheinberg, Germany 1958 244 82%
Vinnolit Knapsack, Germany n/a 160 82%
Ineos Vinyls Stenungsund, Sweden 1967 70 110 150 88%
Ineos Vinyls Porsgrunn, Norway 1950 55 U 80 145 81%
Vinnolit Cologne, Germany n/a 144 82%
Spolana (Anwil) Neratovice, Czech Republic n/a 135 83%
Ercros Tarragona, Spain n/a 130 80%
Vinnolit Burghausen, Germany n/a 122 82%
Ineos Vinyls Runcorn, UK n/a 115 78%
Vinnolit Gendorf, Germany n/a 97 82%
Tianjin Dagu Chemical Co. Ltd. China 1939 280 480 680 240 460 44%
LG Dagu Chemical Ltd. China 1995 240 340 340 400 400 44%
Sinopec Qilu Co. Ltd. China 1966 230 600 600 600 600 44%
Shanghai Chlor-Alkali Chemical Co., Ltd. China 1992 320 390 430 470 470 44%
Tosoh (Guangzhou) Chem Industries Inc China 2007 - - - 220 250 44%
Hebei Jinniu hemical China 1979 299 299 295 230 115 44%
18
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PVC markets of Europe and South-East Asia: analysis of protability and production cost 19
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