Special Issue: Selected papers from the 13th World Congress on Intelligent

Transport Systems and Services

Intelligent transport systems and effects on road
trafc accidents: state of the art
T. Vaa, M. Penttinen and I. Spyropoulou
Abstract: The results from several reviews have been presented and the aspects of road safety
associated with intelligent transport systems (ITS) applications have been addressed. The
attempt is to make a state-of-the-art regarding effects on accidents by categorising systems accord-
ing to levels of evaluations methods that have been applied. These categories are effects on beha-
viour, effects on accidents by proxy/surrogate methods, accident studies from real trafc, effects on
accident types and nally by meta-analysis where weighted estimates of effects on accidents can be
calculated. Thirty-three IT systems including driver assistance systems/advanced driver assistance
systems, in-vehicle information systems, in-vehicle data-collection systems and road telematics
have been listed. Effects based on meta-analysis are estimated for 11 systems, and single accident
studies are found for an additional 2 systems. For the remaining 20 systems, no studies from real
road trafc have been identied. Effects on accidents of antilocking brake systems and electronic
stability control (ESC) are presented in more detail according to their effects on certain accident
types. ESC appears to be very efcient in reducing the number of accidents. Behavioural adap-
tations to ITS are considered and discussed, especially in terms of compensation mechanisms.
Four hypotheses regarding prediction of effects on accidents are stated according to whether
systems increase or decrease windows of opportunities by calling upon a driver behaviour
model where emotions play a central role.
1 Background
In todays highly mobile society, travellers have an
increasing desire and need for accurate and real-time
information. The information provided by, for example,
in-vehicle information systems (IVIS), assists them in
making decisions on their destinations, routes, modes of
travel and helps road users to reach their goals quickly
and, most importantly, safely. IVIS, advanced driver
assistance systems (ADAS) and roadside telematics (RT)
can serve these needs in an efcient and timely manner,
thereby having a catalytic effect on the safe mobility of
persons and goods in an increasingly complex driving
environment. Nevertheless, it is necessary to conceive
them according to users needs and requirements, in
order to ensure their acceptability and to detect potential
harmful effects of their widespread use. There is a clear
lack of reviews of previous experience and data to
support investments in ADAS both from a cost/benet
and, especially, from a safety perspective, although
some cost/benet analyses exist [1, 2]. However, the
main focus of the paper is on safety issues and aims at
identifying intelligent transport systems (ITS) for which
the effects on road trafc accidents have been evaluated
and estimated. In addition, given that IT systems differ
regarding technological maturity and market penetration,
the second aim is to describe a state of the art (SoA)
of ITS according to their levels of evaluation as also
evaluation levels differ regarding sophistication and
scale. The present SoA started and is developed under
the umbrella of the European HUMANIST NoE
(HUMAN centred design for Information Society
Technologies Network of Excellence), by acknowled-
ging the lack of overviews and the need for systematic
reviews of effects of safety-related ITS on road trafc
accidents.
2 Objectives
Even if the current developments of safety-related ITS can
constitute a real improvement of road safety, these develop-
ments nevertheless raise numerous questions about their
acceptability and how they are perceived and understood
by drivers, how ITS might inuence and modify driver
behaviour and attitudes and, in a more generic and deep
sense, how behavioural adaptations may develop as
responses to their implementation. In other words, the effec-
tive realisation of the expected benets is going to depend
on conditions of system implementations, particularly to
what extent the systems respond to drivers needs, if they
are compatible with their functional capacities, and how
the systems satisfy criteria of impact, usability and accep-
tance. Hence, a general objective of the HUMANIST NoE
has been to provide a critical and thorough review of the lit-
erature on the one hand and experiences of the safety poten-
tials, that is, driver behaviour and accidents, on the other
hand.
# The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2007
doi:10.1049/iet-its:20060081
Paper rst received 30th December 2006 and in revised form 2nd April 2007
T. Vaa is with the Institute of Transport Economics, Gaustadalleen 21,
NO-0349 Oslo, Norway
M. Penttinen is with the VTT Transport and Logistics Systems P.O. Box 1000,
VTT FI-02044, Finland
I. Spyropoulou is with the Department of Transportation Planning and
Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 5, Iroon Polytechniou
str, Zografou 15773, Greece
E-mail: tva@toi.no
IET Intell. Transp. Syst., 2007, 1, (2), pp. 8188 81
3 Methodology
For a broad overview of the previous ITS safety-related
studies, the system evaluation and safety impact assessment
reports from relevant projects from the 3rd, 4th and 5th
Framework Programs have been collected by
HUMANIST (Task Force B: Evaluation of ITS Potential
Benets) [3]. In addition, quite a few other relevant
studies were also found in other international and national
reviews [1, 4]. The main focus has been on accident
studies and several methods have been used to evaluate
the effects of IT systems on accidents, such as:
isolated, independent evaluation studies with control
group (before-after or with-without evaluation design);
induced exposure and
meta-analysis of several independent accident studies.
Induced exposure is a method which is useful in situ-
ations when real exposure data are missing. A basic assump-
tion underlying this method is that the proportion of
multiple-vehicle accidents in the presence of a given risk
factor, for example, mobile phone use, among guiltless
drivers is a direct function of the exposure, that is, the dis-
tance of driving in the presence of that risk factor [5].
Meta-analysis can be described as a procedure for
summing up individual results from different studies on a
given variable by a weighted average. The weights of
each of the results are calculated in such a way that the stat-
istical uncertainty in the weighted average is minimised.
This is done by assigning a statistical weight, which is
inversely proportional to the variance of each of the individ-
ual results [6]. The weights in turn depend on the accident
counts, which mean that the more accidents an individual
result is based on, the higher is the statistical weight of
that result.
A lot of safety-related ITS have not yet reached a level of
maturity that enables the systems to be implemented in real
trafc. We then still miss evaluation studies which have
evaluated effects on behaviour and/or road trafc accidents
under real trafc conditions. This state of affairs justies
that some ITS effects are appraised by proxy or surrogate
methods. This group of methods may comprise of in-depth
accident studies based on ofcial accident statistics (as with
eCALL), trafc simulation studies/mathematical modelling
(as with route guidance systems), simulator studies,
accident statistics/accident types and drink driving
convictions (as with Alcolock).
There is then also a possible difference between short-
term and long-term effects: systems that have indicated
positive effects in the short term might turn out differently
when effects are evaluated in the longer terms of use
under real trafc conditions.
4 ITS subgroups
ITS subgroups are frequently categorised as follows:
DAS: E.g. antilocking brake systems (ABS), electronic
stability control (ESC).
ADAS: E.g. dynamic route-guidance systems, automatic
intelligent cruise control (AICC/ICCS), blind-spot
warning systems.
IVIS: E.g. static route-guidance systems, mobile phone,
Internet, compass, weather warning systems.
RT: E.g. speed cameras, variable message signs (VMS),
individual speed feedback (roadside speedometer),
collective feedback of speed, infrastructure for dynamic
registration/warning of height and weight (heavy vehicles).
In addition, we propose to add a fth subgroup to the four
mentioned above:
IVDS: E.g. accident/event data recorder (ADR/EDR),
eCall, eet management systems, dynamic route guidance
systems.
A clear-cut distinction between driver assistance systems
(DAS) and ADAS, that is, a separation between systems
which could be regarded as advanced, or intelligent,
and those which are not, is difcult to state explicitly; it
could be a matter of taste as it might be based on rather
subjective opinions and not on objective denitions of
what intelligence actually is. A distinction between DAS/
ADAS, on the one hand, and in-vehicle data collection
systems (IVIS), on the other hand, is easier. While DAS/
ADAS is regarded as addressing primary driving tasks,
that is, steering, manoeuvring, braking, warning of
dangers, etc., IVIS would typically address more secondary
driving tasks as providing information not necessarily
associated with primary driving tasks. The subgroups
listed earlier are not mutually exclusive; a system might
belong to several subgroups.
5 Classifying systems: SoA
In this context we specically address IT systems which
actually or potentially, directly or indirectly affect aspects
of road safety. A SoA overview is presented in Tables 1a
and 1b. Some kind of rank order of systems according to
their maturity and penetration rate is suggested, that is,
that systems which have been around for a long time and
which are more or less fully implemented in real trafc,
as ABS and speed cameras, are listed on top, while other
systems are listed and ranked according to the number of
studies and sophistication of evaluation methods that have
been applied. Tables 1a and 1b comprise 33 safety-related
IT systems. The overview presented in Table 1a is an illus-
tration of the SoA concerning 13 systems that have been
evaluated with respect to their effects on accidents.
A dotted line has been inserted between systems where
there are sufcient accident studies to assess a best estimate
of the overall effect on accidents by meta-analysis and
systems where some accident studies are identied, but
still too few to do a meta-analysis. For some systems,
especially ABS and speed cameras, which have been in
use since the 1980s, their nal technology has been devel-
oped, their market penetration rate is large and quite a
number of evaluation studies has been performed.
However, for most, if not all, of the newer generations of
ITS, as the 20 IT systems presented in Table 1b, we are
still waiting for accident studies from real trafc. What
we have today are a lot of studies on behaviour parameters,
but we do not really know the effects on accidents of these
systems. Some effects have been estimated by proxy or
surrogate methods, but we really do not know yet how
these systems will perform in real trafc. Another dimen-
sion is the effect of changing penetration rates which gener-
ate a mix of vehicles with and without system X in real
trafc: How will they affect each other? Will new inter-
action patterns arise as an effect of such mixes?
As shown in Table 1b, none of these IT systems have
been evaluated with regard to their effects on accidents in
real trafc. All accident-related columns are empty, and
IET Intell. Transp. Syst., Vol. 1, No. 2, June 2007 82
estimates of effects on accidents have only been assessed by
surrogate methods for 12 of the 20 systems.
6 Effects on road trafc accidents of selected ITS
As indicated in Tables 1a and 1b, several systems estimates
of the effects on accidents have been calculated. The effects
of some of these IT systems are presented in Table 2. Except
for the study on eCALL, all estimates are based on system
performance under real trafc conditions.
A Finnish study based on an in-depth analysis of accident
reports estimates that eCALL could reduce the number of
fatalities by 5% [7]. Accident Data Recorders, which
collect and store vehicle dynamics immediately before
and during an accident event, do not seem to have a signi-
cant effect on accidents [8]. Speed cameras have for long
been known to reduce accidents, and the best estimate is
a statistically signicant reduction of the number of acci-
dents of 18% [1]. A recent meta-analysis of the effects
of ESC shows that single vehicle accidents are reduced
Table 1a: SoA of safety-related ITS according to evaluations of effects on behaviour and accidents (based on [1, 3, 4])
System Category Effect on
behaviour
Effect by
proxy?
Single acc.
studies?
Effect on
acc. types?
Meta-analysis? Overall
effect
a
ABS (A)DAS
ADR IVDS
ESC (A)DAS
Feedback of speed (collective) RT
Feedback of headways (individual) RT
Giving way at pedestrian crossings RT
Speed cameras RT
VMS: accident warning RT
VMS: Fog warning RT
VMS: Queue warning RT
Vision enhancement: DRL DAS
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Black-spot warning heavy vehicles RT
Mobile phone IVIS
a
Effect of ITS on accidents estimated by meta-analysis
yes/one study
more than one study
Table 1b: SoA of safety-related ITS according to evaluations of effects on behaviour and accidents (based on [1, 3, 4])
System Category Effect on
behaviour
Effect by
proxy?
Single acc.
studies?
Effect on
acc. types?
Meta-analysis? Overall
effect
a
AICC/ICCS ADAS
Adaptive cruise control ADAS
Alcolock ADAS
Blind spot detection ADAS
Collicion avoidance systems ADAS
Side collision avoidance systems ADAS
Dynamic route guidance systems ADAS/ IVIS
Static route guidance systems ADAS/ IVIS
eCALL IVDS
Driver vigilance/fatigue monitoring (A)DAS
ISA ADAS
Informative speed advice ADAS
Lateral control/lane keeping/warning ADAS
Motorway control system RT
Night vision systems ADAS
Pedestrian warning (laser-radar) ADAS
Seat belt wearing warning IVIS
Trafc monitoring and management IVDS
VMS: weather information RT
VMS: alternative routes RT
a
Effect of ITS on accidents estimated by meta-analysis
yes/one study
more than one study
IET Intell. Transp. Syst., Vol. 1, No. 2, June 2007 83
by as much as 49% [9]. It should be emphasised, however,
that one of the studies included in this meta-analysis esti-
mates cars with ESC to be involved in an overall 3%
fewer crashes, although the effectiveness is substantially
higher under conditions of adverse road friction [10].
The effects of daytime running lights (DRL) have been
subject to much debate and controversy, but a thorough
meta-analysis from 2003 concludes that the intrinsic
effect for cars is a statistically signicant 39% reduction
of multi-party daytime accidents, while the intrinsic effect
of DRL for motorcycles is an insignicant reduction of
32% (264; 28) of multi-party daytime accidents [11].
A more recent report agrees that there is substantial evi-
dence that the mandatory use of DRL provides a net
reduction of accidents, but questions the evidence concern-
ing the magnitude of the effect [12].
A study which assessed the relative risk of accident
involvement of using a mobile phone while driving
found a relative risk of 2.2 ( p 0.044), that is, an
increased risk of 120% compared with driving without
using a mobile phone [5]. However, a recent literature
review of mobile phone use concludes that using a
mobile phone while driving can increase the risk of
being involved in a road accident up to as much as four
times [13]. Further, the review sums up that the vast
majority of studies report that hands-free phoning does
not have a signicant safety advantage over handheld
phoning, as the most important negative factor is the
same for both types of mobile phones the cognitive
demand and the diversion of attention from driving to
the conversation itself.
VMS which warn of accidents, fog or queue do reduce
the number of accidents, most profoundly for accident
and fog warning messages [1]. The accident types
affected by these VMS are accidents on motorways, acci-
dents in fog and rear-end collisions on motorways,
respectively, while collective feedback signs for giving
way at pedestrian crossings affect accidents with ped-
estrians. A reduction of accidents in fog by 84% indeed
seems very high and the estimate should be interpreted
with caution as the studies on which the estimate are
based comprise a limited number of accidents [14, 15],
but the estimate is statistically signicant. Regarding
feedback signs exposed to drivers when they drive by a
display board, only collective feedback of speed has
been found to have a statistically signicant effect on
accidents [1].
7 Big question: ITS and behavioural adaptation
It is self-evident that humans have to adapt and they do
adapt to any environment that they encounter. This is natu-
rally a basic necessity for survival. Hence, as the present
context is road trafc and driver behaviour, the big issue
regarding effects of safety-related ITS is then: How will
road users adapt to a given IT system? And further, is it
possible to predict how drivers will adapt to a given ITS?
This is the core question. And the answer must build on
valid models from which one can deduce testable hypoth-
eses regarding behavioural adaptations in automotive
environments. Some of the issues at work here include:
Behavioural adaptations is a key issue when new IT
systems are introduced in real trafc. One basic need in
that context is to make as good and valid predictions as
we possibly can.
Hence when studying IT-systems, their effects must be
considered from a theoretical as well as from an empirical
perspective.
Compensation mechanisms is still a phenomenon to be
taken into account when behavioural adaptation to road
safety measures are considered and discussed.
While Wildes proposal and radical conception of risk
homeostasis is considered a deadlock, there might be
aspects in it that are still to be considered [16]. One revision
of Wildes Risk Homeostasis Theory (RHT), which is
suggested, is to substitute Wildes concept target risk
with target feeling and thereby proposing that what
drivers seek is not a specic level of risk, but rather a
level of feeling [17]. It is asserted that what drivers gener-
ally seek is a best feeling and that they will adjust and
adapt their behaviour in order to realise that best feeling.
Or, as Damasio states it: . . . a functional balance where
the organism probably operate at its best [18]. The
Table 2: Effects of selected ITS on accidents (percentage change and evaluation method)
System Percentage change in the number of accidents
a
Method and source Best estimate 95% CI
eCall In-depth studies [7] 25
ADR Meta-analysis [8] 27 (224; 14)
Speed cameras Meta-analysis [1] 218 (219; 216)
ESC Meta-analysis [9] 249 (255; 242)
DRL Meta-analysis [11] 26 (29; 23)
Mobile phone Induced exposure [5] 120 p 0.044
VMS
Accident warning signs motorways Meta-analysis [1] 244 (259; 222)
Fog warning signs Meta-analysis [1] 284 (293; 263)
Queue warning signs on motorways Meta-analysis [1] 216 (226; 24)
Collective warnings signs for speed Meta-analysis [1] 246 (262; 224)
Collective feedback signs for giving way at pedestrian crossings Meta-analysis [1] 265 (296; 199)
Individual feedback signs for speed Meta-analysis [1] 241 (278; 59)
Individual feedback signs for close following Meta-analysis [1] 26 (256; 104)
a
For eCALL the effect parameter is fatalities. For all other systems the effect parameter is accidents
IET Intell. Transp. Syst., Vol. 1, No. 2, June 2007 84
general hypothesis that can be stated on the basis of the
model described in [17] is then the following:
Hypothesis 1: If a car with a given IT system X provides a
better feeling of control compared with a car without system
X, the assumed accident risk reduction feature of system X
might be compensated by the a change in driver behaviour
as for example by increased driving speeds.
Implicit in hypothesis 1 is the possibility that system X
might represent new opportunities of driving behaviour by
improved acceleration potentials, more overtaking, shorter
headways, etc., that is, that the technology of system X pro-
vides opportunities that did not exist for the driver when
driving a car without IT system X. These issues are con-
sidered in more detail in the following section by presenting
examples which contrasts the effects of ABS (Table 3) with
the effects of ESC (Table 4).
7.1 ABS against ESC: an illustrative example
Table 3 shows the effects of ABS (that is, the overall effect)
on different levels of injury and specic accident types. The
overall effect of ABS is a small reduction in the number of
accidents by 4%. Injury accidents are reduced by 5%,
whereas fatal accidents are increased by 6%. All these
effects are statistically signicant.
Further, considering the different accident types, the
picture is still mixed. While collisions with turning vehicles
and pedestrians/cyclists/animals are reduced by 8% and
27%, respectively, overturning accidents, single accidents
without overturning and collisions with xed objects are
increased by 22%, 15% and 14%, respectively. All
changes are statistically signicant. For intersection acci-
dents and rear-end collisions there are no signicant
effects on accidents. ABS seems to reduce collisions with
turning vehicles, and accidents with pedestrians/cyclists/
animals and reductions of accidents with moving objects
are what would be expected, as one effect of ABS is the
ability to maintain steering capability during braking. In
contrast, however, the number of overturning accidents,
single accidents without overturning and collision with
xed objects are all accident types that were signicantly
increased. The hypothesis for explaining this phenomenon
is the one of compensation, that is, ABS provides the
driver with a feeling of increased vehicle control, a
feeling which is converted into increased driving speeds.
Such an explanation seems reasonable as the accident
types which increase would all be associated with higher
driving speeds (for a more extensive discussion of this
phenomenon, see [17]). An additional aspect is how
drivers understand ABS. Broughton and Baugha found
that many drivers, especially women and elderly drivers,
did not know whether their cars had ABS [19]. Lack of fam-
iliarity with ABS and experiences of kick-backs in the
braking pedal when full braking power is induced could
lead drivers to fail to brake fully in an emergency [17].
ESC is a relatively new system, which is installed in cars
to prevent the vehicle from spinning, especially on slippery
surfaces. In a previous presentation of effects of ITS [20],
only three accident studies on the effects of ESC were pre-
sented [2123]. Since then more accident studies have been
added [10, 2426], which have made it possible to perform
a meta-analysis also of ESC [9]. ESC seems to have a very
promising effect on accidents and as indicated in [20], the
consistency of the ESCs effects is conrmed by the
meta-analysis [9], as presented in Table 4.
The picture seems very consistent: All accident types
with personal injuries except rear-end collisions are
reduced by 22%, rollover accidents with personal injury
by 69%, side collisions by 7%, injury accidents with
single vehicles by 46%, fatal accident by 49%, head-on
injury accidents by 10% and multi-vehicle accidents with
fatal injuries by 32%. All these reductions except the rst
are statistically signicant and some of the effects are
remarkably high [9]. Multi-vehicle accidents with personal
injuries are slightly increased (2%).
It could be regarded as a paradox that ESC seems to have
such unambiguously positive effects on accidents, which, as
shown, was not the case with ABS. This difference in effects
is quite strange because ESC and ABS utilise technologies
that are almost identical; both systems use sensors for moni-
toring the speed of each of the wheels. However, ESC cars
also have instruments which measure yaw rate and lateral
Table 3: Effects of ABS on accidents
Level of injury Percentage change in the
number of accidents
Accident types that are affected Best estimate 95% CI
ABS brakes on cars
All vehicles All 24 (25; 23)
Injury accidents All 25 (28; 22)
Fatal accidents All 6 (1; 12)
Effects on specic accident types
Unspecied (All) Overturning accidents 22 (11; 34)
Single vehicle accidents without
overturning
15 (9; 22)
Intersection accidents 22 (25; 1)
Rear-end collisions 21 (25; 3)
Collision with xed objects 14 (11; 18)
Collision with turning vehicles 28 (214; 21)
Collisions with pedestrians,
cyclists and animals
227 (240; 212)
Percentage change in the number of accidents. Results from meta-analysis (From [1])
IET Intell. Transp. Syst., Vol. 1, No. 2, June 2007 85
acceleration. If the discrepancy between yaw rate and lateral
acceleration is increasing, individual wheels are brought to
brake in order to reduce the rotation of the vehicle. These
apparently antagonistic effects of ABS compared with
ESC call for an explanation.
7.2 Problems with driving in the dark call for ITS
solutions
Up to 42% of crashes and 58% of fatal crashes occur at
night or during some other degraded visibility conditions
[27]. Although a signicant number of night-time accidents
is a consequence of driver drowsiness or alcohol consump-
tion, reduced visibility is an important risk factor. The study
of accidents during twilight hours [28] and at ambient light
conditions [29] indicated that high accident rates, especially
those involving pedestrians, were associated with darker
environment conditions and were independent of time of
day, day of week or alcohol consumption. It has been
found that road lighting reduces the number of fatal acci-
dents in the dark by nearly 65% and injury accidents by
nearly 30% and has a greater effect on accidents involving
pedestrians in the dark, with about 50% reduction, than on
other accidents types [1]. Furthermore, the effect of road
lighting is the same in all trafc environments, that is, on
motorways and in urban and rural areas [30]. There is
then no doubt that darkness imposes a signicant risk
factor for drivers. Hence, it calls for ITS solutions that
could improve the safety of night-time driving.
Night vision is a system that enhances drivers ability to
distinguish objects while driving at night [31]. It uses
typically thermal imaging camera, based on infrared
technology, which can detect humans, animals and objects
in front of the car up to a distance of 300 m. According to
its functionality, this system has the potential of reducing
the number of road accidents.
As it has not yet been introduced to the wide market, the
investigation of its impact can only be based on surrogate
measures. Tsimhoni and Green conducted a list of surrogate
measures to assess vision enhancement systems involving
three dimensions namely, controlling the vehicle (lane
and speed keeping and distance and gap estimation), detect-
ing objects (probability to detect objects and events, time
and distance to detect objects and recognition of road
signs and trafc lights) and other higher level tasks and con-
siderations [32]. These include measures such as speed
choice, number of crashes, risk compensation, workload
and fatigue, ability to perform additional tasks, reliance
on the system, spatial orientation, motion sickness, night
vision adaptation and glance behaviour.
Results from several studies have demonstrated that vision
enhancement systems considerably increase the detection
distances of objects and pedestrians [3335], although
other studies nd no change in object detection time with
the use of the system [36]. The impact of the use of a
vision enhancement system on the estimation of the object
distance is not quite clear and is dependant on the implement-
ation scenarios. Barham also observed an increase of the
headway (to the preceding vehicle) and hence a lower
probability of a rear-end collision in the case of the preceding
vehicle making an emergency stop [37]. Adverse effects of
vision enhancement systems have also been identied. All
the new displays inside the vehicle force drivers attention
away from the roadway ahead. This may lead to drivers
dividing their attention between the external and internal
environment [27, 38, 39], affecting the older driver
population considerably more. A degradation of peripheral
target detection and identication performance outside of
the Head-Up-Display screen (in specic light conditions)
has been detected [40].
Poor lighting conditions may also imply a lower risk
of involvement in severe accidents, if drivers are compen-
sating by driving at lower speeds [41, 42]. Hence, driver
adaptation to vision enhancement systems is also a possi-
bility. It has been found [43] that conventional vision
enhancement by means of reector posts actually increased
the number of accidents. Drivers modied their behaviour
due to increased optical guidance by driving with higher
speeds. The effect was clearest with the curvy, narrow
countryside roads with the posted speed limit 80 km/h,
that is, roads with lower geometric standards. Ward et al.
observed lower driving speeds but greater speed variation
when using a vision enhancement system [36]. In a more
recent study, however, an increase in driving speed was
detected when using a vision enhancement system before
a simulated system failure occurred [44]. Moreover,
drivers may adapt to road lighting and subsequently to a
system enhancing their vision in dark environments also
by generating more trafc. In a Norwegian study it was
found that drivers do compensate for road lighting in
terms of increased driving speeds [41]. Assum et al. argue
that the fact that previous studies did not nd any changes
in average speed when road lighting was introduced could
be explained by increased driving speed by some drivers
being counterbalanced by a larger proportion of more
slowly driving groups of drivers (elderly people and
women), that is, different subgroups compensate in different
ways [41].
The impact of vision enhancement systems on road safety
based on the ndings of research on the systems cannot be
Table 4: Effects of ESC on accidents
Accident severity Percentage change in the number of accidents
Accident types that are affected Best estimate 95% CI
Injury accidents All, except rear-end collisions 222 (241; 3)
Rollover 269 (282; 245)
Injury/unspecied accidents Side collisions 27 (214; 0)
Injury accidents Single vehicle 246 (264; 218)
Fatal accidents Single vehicle 249 (262; 233)
Injury accidents Head on 210 (215; 25)
Fatal accidents Head on 279 (297; 61)
Injury accidents Multi vehicle 2 (1; 3)
Fatal accidents Multi vehicle 232 (243; 220)
Percentage change in the number of accidents (From [9])
IET Intell. Transp. Syst., Vol. 1, No. 2, June 2007 86
established at this stage. Whether the opportunities provided
will outperform the identied adverse effects and whether
behavioural adaptation will affect the systems effectiveness
is still not known but remains a matter of concern.
8 Predicting effects of ITS
At this stage, the effects of ITS aiming at reducing risks of
night-time driving are somewhat ambiguous and inconclu-
sive. We know that road lighting generates more trafc by
attracting more drivers to drive at dark times of the day.
The same mechanisms might be at work also for in-vehicle
night-time vision enhancement systems. As with road light-
ing, it depends on the strategic appraisals that drivers will
make and also on the emotions that ITS might provide. If
a given ITS provides a feeling of less danger, that feeling
might be converted into higher driving speeds because the
driver would tolerate an increased speed without increasing
the feeling of danger [17]. Remembering also the difference
in effects between ABS and ESC, one hypothesis is that the
effects of ESC hardly can be compensated, while ABS can,
that is, by increased driving speeds. Another way of stating
this hypothesis is that ABS may provide an increased
feeling of control which the driver converts into higher
driving speeds, while this opportunity is limited when the
car is equipped with ESC. In particular, the same driver
may experience an enlarged window of opportunities with
an ABS car, but a reduction of the same window with an
ESC car. Night-time vision enhancement systems might,
hence, also enlarge the window of opportunities and gener-
ate more trafc. The general question to be asked, when
considering ITS, is again whether a given system will
enhance or limit behavioural opportunities [17]. The
above discussion could be generalised to more specic
hypotheses of ITS effects on accidents:
Hypothesis 2: An accident increase could be predicted
with IT systems that enhance the window of opportunities,
such as with ABS for certain accident types.
Hypothesis 3: An accident decrease could be predicted for
IT systems that reduce the window of opportunities, as
with ESC, intelligent speed adaptation (ISA), Alcolock
and monitoring of driver states associated with increased
accident risk.
Referring to the risk increase associated with using a
mobile phone while driving (Table 2), a more general
hypothesis can be stated:
Hypothesis 4: An accident increase could be expected with
IVIS which are dissociated from primary driving tasks, by
increasing the frequency of distractions, as with the use of
mobile phone.
A given IT system might also result in mixed effects. We
know from a Norwegian accident study that drivers attribute
Searching for a street name and Reading a map as main
causes for having been involved in an accident by some
2.3% and 0.2%, respectively [5]. Consider then the hypothe-
tical example of the effects of a route guidance systemwhere
the reasoning is as follows: A route guidance system should
potentially exclude the risk factors of Searching for a street
name and Reading a map, but at the same time a risk factor
is introduced by a TV screen that may cause distraction.
Further, the system should reduce driving around at
random when searching for an address for the rst time.
We do not know the amount of such searching behaviour,
but it adds to the total transport volume and will, hence, be
associated with a certain amount of accidents that potentially
can be avoided. Finally, when the car is equipped with a
route guidance system, the driver might seek routes,
places, cities where he or she previously did not dare to
drive because of unfamiliarity, dense trafc or other, but
when provided with a route guidance system the driver
might become sufciently condent to try out new options.
We do not yet know the net result of these mixed propensi-
ties, but the adherent risk estimates that should be calculated
would probably be close to the above reasoning.
9 Discussion and conclusions
The general picture portrayed by the overview in Table 1a
and 1b is indeed promising for most IT systems that have
been implemented and used in real trafc on a larger scale
for several years. Overall, there are few signs of safety
effects being counteracted by compensation mechanisms,
although there are some exceptions as with ABS and
mobile phone use. Some ITS, as speed cameras, some
VMS and also ESC, have been very promising and effective
regarding their effects on accidents. Future ITS solutions are
expected to have positive impacts on road safety, but we
still miss evaluation studies for most of the new ITS
which are on their way to be implemented in real trafc.
It may take quite some time before the effects of the new
ITS solutions are established from accident studies, as
many parameters need to be stabilised regarding the techno-
logical features of the systems, their penetration rates and
behavioural adaptations that will develop when drivers
experience the systems. In the short term, however,
certain aspects of the indirect impact of ITS on road
safety can be identied with the use of other types of ana-
lyses including the application of surrogate or proxy
methods even in the cases when systems are still being at
a prototype level.
Behavioural adaptation has been an issue and will still be
an issue to be addressed regarding new ITS solutions. These
issues are to a large extent not yet studied, but are never-
theless extremely important in a world of road trafc with
increasing numbers of road users and a prospective shift
from traditional measures to intelligent in-car technology.
The added feeling of security that some drivers may experi-
ence when using a given ITS may result in riskier driver
behaviour, especially by increased driving speeds or by
more frequent distractions. Four hypotheses are suggested
as predictions of effects of safety-related ITS.
The present paper is an attempt to describe the SoA
regarding ITS effects on accidents as it looks per 2007.
We do not claim that it is a complete picture, it is not the
nal answer and the present SoA will need updates as
safety-related IT systems mature and the number of
evaluation studies increases. Regarding completeness, an
example of the enormous amount of literature which
exists in this eld of research is as follows: The 1st World
Congress on ITS was held in Paris in 1994. The proceedings
of the Paris congress comprised six volumes and a total
number of some 3400 pages. Including the 13th World
Congress on ITS in London 2006, and given that the Paris
estimate is representative, the complete proceedings of 13
ITS World Congresses should now comprise some 44 000
pages. And the ITS proceedings is only one of the many
sources of evaluation studies; there are many more to be
sought for, among others from Asian, European and
American ITS congresses, and from scientic journals. It
is self-evident that the present SoA review does not cover
all these proceedings and additional reports; we do not
claim completeness. That said, SoAs in this eld is strongly
IET Intell. Transp. Syst., Vol. 1, No. 2, June 2007 87
needed to create overviews in a eld which might seem
rather chaotic at times. The present SoA is a rst attempt
to structure this composite and complicated ITS landscape,
and future SoA updates will be needed.
10 Acknowledgments
The present paper is elaborated within the project
HUMANIST NoE (HUMAN centred design for Information
Society Technologies Network of Excellence) commis-
sioned by the 6th Framework Program of the European
Union. The paper, however, does not reect the ofcial
view of EU, but that of the authors.
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