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Submitted by
Anshuman Sekhri
in partial fulfillment for the award of the degree

!n"er #he $ui"an%e &' Su(mi##e" ()
Mr. Ankur Choudhary Anshuman Sekhri
Lecturer 11003796
!ha()ara*1+++01, !un-a. /$ndia0
Certi1ied that this 2ro-ect re2ort entit3ed *+er %a+i#a "eman" &' ,a#er- su.mitted
.y ka+&&r"er sin$h (rar01122:62278;&iram
)akai(a011225<<=78 Anshuman sekhri011224>5678 Ja) /erma0112232527
students o1 Ci5i3 En(ineerin( 6e2artment, Lo5e3y !ro1essiona3 &ni5ersity,
!ha()ara, !un-a. )ho carried out the 2ro-ect )ork under my su2er5ision.
'his re2ort has not .een su.mitted to any other uni5ersity or institution 1or the
a)ard o1 any de(ree.
Mrs. 6o3oncha2a !ra.hakar Mr.Ankur choudhary
6e2artment o1 ci5i3 en(ineerin( 6e2artment o1 ci5i3 en(ineerin(
'his is a (reat chance or o22ortunity 1or us to )ork on the to2ic 42er ca2ita
demand o1 )ater7 a case study in 32u7 and is 5ery thank1u3 to a33 those 2eo23e )ho
he32ed us durin( this 2ro-ect re2ort.

8e )ou3d 3ike to thank our mentor 4Mr.Ankur Choudhary7 )ho he32ed us a 3ot
and (uided us.
8e )ou3d a3so 3ike to thank our 1riends )ho (a5e their su22ort 1or the com23etion
o1 the 2ro-ect re2ort. "ea33y it (a5e us a )ide e92erience and )e 3earn a 3ot durin(
this time 2eriod.
S2ecia3 thank to:;
Mr. Ankur Choudhary
<AC=>"O&%6 A%6 ?&S'$#$CA'$O%
L$'E"A'&"E "$V$E8
8A'E" @&A%'$' ES'$MA'$O%
8ater consum2tion rate
#ire demand
#AC'O"S E##EC'$%> !E" CA!$'A 6EMA%6
#L&C'&A'$O% $% "A'E O# 6EMA%6
6ES$>% !E"$O6 A%6 !O!&LA'$O% #O"CAS'$%>
8A'E" 6EMA%6
SCO!E O# S'&6
!O!&LA'$O% 6A'A A%6 !O!&LA'$O% >"O8'A
Arithmetic increase method
>eometric increase method
Method o1 5aryin( increment or increment increase
Com2arati5e (ra2h method
"atio method
Lo(istic cur5e method
E##EC'S O# VA"$A'$O% $% 6EMA%6S O% 'AE 6ES$>%
CA!AC$'$ES O# 6$##E"E%' COM!O%E%'S O# A 8A'E" S&!!L
ECO%OM $% 8A'E" &SE
CALC&LA'$O% O# !E" CA!$'A 6EMA%6 $% L!&.
"ES&L' A%6 6$SC&SS$O%

Lis# &' #a(9es?
Ta(9e 1 ,a#er %&nsum+#i&n '&r /ari&us +ur+&ses
Ta(9e : /ari&us em+iri%a9 '&rmu9as '&r 'ire'i$h#in$ "eman"
Ta(9e 4 +er %a+i#a "eman" &' 9+u
$n $ndia, the day .y day increasin( demand 1or )ater )ith ra2id3y (ro)in(
2o2u3ation and 3ack o1 a5ai3a.3eBcost e11ecti5e su223y o1 )ater is resu3tin( into
decrease in 2er ca2ita )ater a5ai3a.i3ity. 'he 2ur2ose o1 this research is to assess
the 1actorsB5aria.3es those in13uence the househo3d )ater demand. Ay2othesiCed
1actors )hich )ere considered 1or house ho3d )ater demand )ere: !rice o1 )ater,
Aouseho3d siCe, Aouseho3d $ncome, Aouseho3d area. 6ata )as co33ected 1rom
5arious hoste3s and .3ocks .y sur5ey and corres2ondin( resu3ts )ere ana3yCed
throu(h mu3ti23e re(ression and corre3ation to check the resu3ts. 'he resu3ts o1
ana3ysis are indicatin( that Aouseho3d demand o1 )ater increases )ith increase in
Aouse Ao3d siCe, Aouse Ao3d area and $ncome o1 Aouse Ao3d. Other 1actors 3ike
!rice o1 )ater ha5e no si(ni1icant e11ect on the demand o1 )ater. Ana3ysis o1 data
and estimation o1 di11erent 2arameters sho) that the current )ater demand is 160
/3itresBday0 1or 3D000 2o2u3ation and as 2er 2o2u3ation (ro)th rate o1 3.3E, L!&
)i33 near3y (et u2 to D0,000 in F0F0 )ith sim23e arithmetic (ro)th rate o1 )ater
Ba%k$r&un" an" Jus#i'i%a#i&n
L!& 2ro1i3e:
L!& is 3ocated at an a3titude o1 F30m a.o5e sea 3e5e3 .et)een 31G 19H %, 3DG 1IH E.
$t is in the =a2urtha3a district in the north o1 !un-a..
C9ima#e? 'he city has a humid su.tro2ica3 c3imate )ith coo3 )inters and hot
summers. Summers 3ast 1rom A2ri3 to ?une and )inters 1rom to
#e.ruary. 'em2eratures in the summer 5ary 1rom a5era(e hi(hs o1 around +I GC to
a5era(e 3o)s o1 around FD GC. 8inter tem2eratures 5ary 1rom hi(hs o1 19 GC to
3o)s o1 JD GC. 'he c3imate is dry on the )ho3e, e9ce2t durin( the .rie1 south)est
monsoon season durin( ?u3y and Au(ust. 'he a5era(e annua3 rain1a33 is a.out 70
P&+u9a#i&n? 'he 2o2u3ation o1 L2u is FD000 in F010 and it increases to 3D000 in
F01+. $ncreases at the rate o1 F.IE each year. !un-a. ranks third in terms o1 )ater
su223ied throu(h 2i2e3ines, current3y, I7E o1 !un-a.Ks 2o2u3ation and 61E
o1 rura3 residents ha5e some 1orm o1 )ater su223y, 2rimari3y 1rom 2u.3ic stand
2osts. Ao)e5er, on3y 3FE o1 househo3ds ha5e access to drinkin( )ater inside the
home, )hi3e the remainin( 66E re3y on an outdoor source. $n;house connections
are more )ide3y a5ai3a.3e in areas /I0E0L )ith a 3ar(e 2ortion o1 this )ater
su223ied throu(h 2i2e3ines /73E0, .ut 76E o1 rura3 househo3ds de2end on an
outside source o1 )ater. Current )ater tari11s in the district neither mirror the
economic cost o1 2ro5idin( drinkin( )ater nor are the net socia3 2ro1it and costs
1or other ty2es o1 uses co5ered in the su223y 1or industria3 and commercia3 )ater
Li#era#ure re/ie,?
8ater demand ana3ysis is doomed at 2ro5idin( re3e5ant in1ormation and a)areness
1or desi(nin( an e11ecti5e )ater demand 2o3icy in (enera3 and a 2o3icy that seeks
the e11icient use o1 )ater in 2articu3ar. $n this )ay, e11icient use o1 )ater is de1ined
as a 2attern o1 use that ma9imiCes the 2ay.ack arisin( 1rom the e3imination o1 a
(i5en )ater resource. 8ater mana(ement has .ecome a 5ita3 a3arm 1or .oth )ater
su223y com2anies and 2u.3ic administrations due to the ma(nitude o1 )ater 1or 3i1e
and current 3ack in many areas. Studies e9ist that e11ort to e923ain )hich 1actors
2o)er )ater demand. Essentia33y, )ater demand mana(ement is meant at
moti5atin( 2eo23e and in13uencin( their )ater use acti5ities, throu(h a ran(e o1
socia3 marketin(, economic, and other mana(ement 2ro(rams. 8ater demand
1orecasts are reMuired 1or 2ro2er 23annin(, de5e3o2ment and mana(ement o1 )ater
resources. Mathematica3 mode3s can .e used to e9amine the 1actors in13uencin(
)ater demand, reco(niCe their e11ects, 1orecast the 1uture demand and de5e3o2
mana(ement 23ans accordin(3y. 6emand mana(ement aims to reduce the )asta(e
o1 )ater due to o5eruse and 3eaka(e.
Wa#er @uan#i#) Es#ima#i&n
'he Muantity o1 )ater reMuired 1or munici2a3 uses 1or )hich the )ater su223y
scheme has to .e desi(ned reMuires 1o33o)in( data:
1. 8ater consum2tion rate /!er Ca2ita 6emand in 3itres 2er day 2er head0
F. !o2u3ation to .e ser5ed.
@uan#i#)A Per %a+i#a "eman" B P&+u9a#i&n
Water Consumption Rate
$t is 5ery di11icu3t to 2recise3y assess the Muantity o1 )ater demanded .y the 2u.3ic,
since there are many 5aria.3e 1actors a11ectin( )ater consum2tion. 'he 5arious
ty2es o1 )ater demands, )hich a city may ha5e, may .e .roken into 1o33o)in(
'a.3e 1.8ater Consum2tion 1or Various !ur2oses:
'y2es o1 Consum2tion %orma3 "an(e
A5era(e E
1 6omestic Consum2tion
6D;300 160 3D
F $ndustria3 and Commercia3 6emand
+D;+D0 13D 30
3 !u.3ic &ses inc3udin( #ire 6emand
F0;90 +D 10
+ Losses and 8aste
+D;1D0 6F FD
Fire Fi$h#in$ Deman"?
'he 2er ca2ita 1ire demand is 5ery 3ess on an a5era(e .asis .ut the rate at )hich the
)ater is reMuired is 5ery 3ar(e. 'he rate o1 1ire demand is sometimes treated as a
1unction o1 2o2u3ation and is )orked out 1rom 1o33o)in( em2irica3 1ormu3ae:
Authority Formulae (P in thousands) Q for 1 lakh
Q (L/min)=4!" P (1#$%$1 P) 41"$
Q (L/min)=!1*& P !1*$$
Q (L/min)= 11!%+(P/+,1$) !+$+$
-inistry of
Q (kilo liters/d)=1$$ P for
Fa%#&rs a''e%#in$ +er %a+i#a "eman"?
a. SiCe o1 the city: !er ca2ita demand 1or .i( cities is (enera33y 3ar(e as
com2ared to that 1or sma33er to)ns as .i( cities ha5e se)ered houses.
.. !resence o1 industries.
c. C3imatic conditions.
d. Aa.its o1 2eo23e and their economic status.
e. @ua3ity o1 )ater: $1 )ater is aesthetica33y N medica33y sa1e, the consum2tion
)i33 increase as 2eo23e )i33 not resort to 2ri5ate )e33s, etc.
1. !ressure in the distri.ution system.
g. E11iciency o1 )ater )orks administration: Leaks in )ater mains and
ser5icesL and unauthoriCed use o1 )ater can .e ke2t to a minimum .y
h. Cost o1 )ater.
i. !o3icy o1 meterin( and char(in( method: 8ater ta9 is char(ed in t)o
di11erent )ays: on the .asis o1 meter readin( and on the .asis o1 certain
1i9ed month3y rate.
F9u%#ua#i&ns in Ra#e &' Deman"
A5era(e 6ai3y !er Ca2ita 6emand
O @uantity "eMuired in 1F MonthsB /36D 9 !o2u3ation0
$1 this a5era(e demand is su223ied at a33 the times, it )i33 not .e su11icient to meet
the 13uctuations.
Seas&na9 /aria#i&n: 'he demand 2eaks durin( summer. #ire.reak outs are
(enera33y more in summer, increasin( demand. So, there is seasona3
Dai9) /aria#i&n de2ends on the acti5ity. !eo23e dra) out more )ater on
Sundays and #esti5a3 days, thus increasin( demand on these days.
H&ur9) /aria#i&ns are 5ery im2ortant as they ha5e a )ide ran(e. 6urin(
acti5e househo3d )orkin( hours i.e. 1rom si9 to ten in the mornin( and 1our
to ei(ht in the e5enin(, the .u3k o1 the dai3y reMuirement is taken. 6urin(
other hours the reMuirement is ne(3i(i.3e. Moreo5er, i1 a 1ire .reaks out, a
hu(e Muantity o1 )ater is reMuired to .e su223ied durin( short duration,
necessitatin( the need 1or a ma9imum rate o1 hour3y su223y.
So, an adeMuate Muantity o1 )ater must .e a5ai3a.3e to meet the 2eak demand. 'o
meet a33 the 13uctuations, the su223y 2i2es, ser5ice reser5oirs and distri.ution 2i2es
must .e 2ro2er3y 2ro2ortioned. 'he )ater is su223ied .y 2um2in( direct3y and the
2um2s and distri.ution system must .e desi(ned to meet the 2eak demand. 'he
e11ect o1 month3y 5ariation in13uences the desi(n o1 stora(e reser5oirs and the
hour3y 5ariations in13uences the desi(n o1 2um2s and ser5ice reser5oirs. As the
2o2u3ation decreases, the 13uctuation rate increases.
Ma9imum dai3y demand O 1.I 9 a5era(e dai3y demand
Ma9imum hour3y demand o1 ma9imum day i.e. !eak demand
= 1%+ 3 a1era(e hourly demand
= 1%+ 3 -a3imum daily demand/&4
= 1%+ 3 (1%* 3 a1era(e daily demand)/&4
= &%" 3 a1era(e daily demand/&4
= &%" 3 annual a1era(e hourly demand
Design Periods & Population Forecast
'his Muantity shou3d .e )orked out )ith due 2ro5ision 1or the estimated
reMuirements o1 the 1uture. 'he 1uture 2eriod 1or )hich a 2ro5ision is made in the
)ater su223y scheme is kno)n as the desi(n 2eriod.
6esi(n 2eriod is estimated .ased on the 1o33o)in(:
&se1u3 3i1e o1 the com2onent, considerin( o.so3escence, )ear, tears, etc.
E92anda.i3ity as2ect.
Antici2ated rate o1 (ro)th o1 2o2u3ation, inc3udin( industria3, commercia3
de5e3o2ments P mi(ration;immi(ration.
A5ai3a.3e resources.
!er1ormance o1 the system durin( initia3 2eriod.
P&+u9a#i&n F&re%as#in$ Me#h&"s
'he 5arious methods ado2ted 1or estimatin( 1uture 2o2u3ations are (i5en .e3o).
'he 2articu3ar method to .e ado2ted 1or a 2articu3ar case or 1or a 2articu3ar city
de2ends 3ar(e3y on the 1actors discussed in the methods, and the se3ection is 3e1t to
the discretions and inte33i(ence o1 the desi(ner.
1. Arithmetic $ncrease Method
2. >eometric $ncrease Method
3. $ncrementa3 $ncrease Method
4. 6ecreasin( "ate o1 >ro)th Method
5. Sim23e >ra2hica3 Method
6. Com2arati5e >ra2hica3 Method
7. "atio Method
8. Lo(istic Cur5e Method
D&mes#i% "eman" &' ,a#er?
'his inc3udes the )ater reMuired in househo3d 2ur2oses 1or drinkin(, .athin(,
cookin(, sanitary 2ur2oses etc.
As 2er $S: F003BcBd/)ith 1u33y 13ushin( system0
13D3BcBd/1or )eaker sections0
Pu(9i% "eman"?
$t re2resents the demand 1or uti3ity 2ur2ose 3ike )ashin( o1 2u.3ic 2arks, )ashin(
o1 2u.3ic roads etc F03BcBd.
In"us#ria9 "eman"?
$t re2resents the demand 1or industries )hich ear3ier e9ist or are 3ike3y to .e started
in 1uture.
As 2er $S: D0LBcBd 1or norma3 industry
+D0LBcBd 1or industria3 cities
C&mmer%ia9 "eman"?
8ater reMuired 1or institution, hoste3, hote3s, schoo3, and co33e(es
As 2er $S: F0LBcBd 1or norma3 commercia3 area
D0LBcBd 1or hi(h3y commercia3 area
Fire "eman"?
$n 2o2u3ated or industria3 areas 1ire (enera33y .reakout and may 3ead to serious
2ro.3em. #or contro3 that situation reMuires su11icient Muantity o1 )ater that is
ca33ed 1ire demand.
Wa#er "eman" reCuire" '&r #he'# an" ,as#es? 'his inc3ude the )ater 3ost in
3eaka(e and sto3en )ater due to unauthoriCed )ater connection.

1i(.1 sho)in( )ater demand 1or 5arious 2ur2oses
Wa#er reCuiremen# '&r "i''eren# uses?
6omestic demand O13DLBcBd
!u.3ic demandOF0LBcBd
$ndustria3 demandOD0LBcBd
Commercia3 demandOF0LBcBd
#ire demandO1DLBcBd
Loss and )asteOD0LBcBd
T&#a9A :>2LD%D"
Ao) can uti3ities reduce 2er ca2ita )ater use ratesQ
Ao) can )e reduce our 2er ca2ita )ater useQ
Ao) can )e 1u31i3 the reMuirement o1 )aterQ
'hese are the 1e) Muestions and to (et u2on these )e ha5e studied the 5arious
1actors )hich a11ect the 2er ca2ita demand o1 )ater in L!&.
C9ima#i% %&n"i#i&ns: at hotter and dry 23aces, the consum2tion o1 )ater is
(enera33y more, .ecause more o1 .athin(, c3eanin(, air coo3ers, air conditionin(,
s2rink3in( in 3a)ns, (ardens, roo1s, etc are in5o35ed. Simi3ar3y, in e9treme3y co3d
re(ion, more )ater may .e consumed, .ecause the 2eo23e may kee2 their ta2s o2en
to a5oid 1reeCin( o1 2i2es and there may .e more 3eaka(e 1rom 2i2e -oints, since
meta3 contract )ith co3d. As the c3imatic condition o1 the re(ion )here L2u is i.e.
?a33andhar is 5ery co3d in )inters and hot in summers. So .y (ettin( data 1rom
)ater su223ies )e came to kno) that )ater demand increases 17E to F0E.
T)+es &' $en#r) an" ha(i#s &' +e&+9e? "ich and u22er c3ass communities
(enera33y consume more )ater due to their a113uent 3i5in( standards. Midd3e c3ass
communities consume a5era(e amount, )hi3e 2oor s3um 2eo23e consumes 5ery
3o) amount.
$1 )e ta3k a.out L!& 2er ca2ita )ater demand is constant, there is no community
di11erence here.
In"us#ria9 an" %&mmer%ia9 a%#i/i#ies? the 2ressure o1 industria3 and commercia3
acti5ities at a 2articu3ar 23ace increases the )ater consum2tion .y 3ar(e amount.
Many industries reMuire 5ery hu(e amount o1 )ater and as such, increases the
)ater demand considera.3y.
@ua9i#) &' ,a#er su++9)?
$1 the Mua3ity and taste o1 )ater su223y is (ood it )i33 consume more, .ecause in
that case, 2eo23e )i33 not use other sources such as 2ri5ate )e33s, hand 2um2s etc.
as the Mua3ity o1 )ater in L!& is same i.e. 1or drinkin( 2ur2ose )e ha5e same
Mua3ities o1 )ater 2uri1iers and same Mua3ity o1 )ater is there 1or e5eryone. 'here
isnKt any hand 2um2s and )e33s in the uni5ersity so 2eo23e on3y de2end on )hat
they ha5e.
Pressure in #he "is#ri(u#in$ s)s#em: i1 the 2ressure in the distri.ution system is
hi(h and su11icient to make the )ater reach at third and e5en 1ourth story, )ater
consum2tion sha33 de1inite3y .e more.
'he )ater consum2tion increases .ecause o1 t)o reasons:
1) !eo23e 3i5in( in u22er stories )i33 use )ater 1ree3y as com2ared to the
case )hen )ater is a5ai3a.3e scarce3y to them.
2) 'he 3osses and )asta(e due to 3eaka(e are considera.3y increased i1
the 2ressure is hi(h.
#or e9am23e, i1 the 2ressure increases 1rom F0 m head o1 )ater to 30 m head o1
)ater, the 3ooses may (o u2 to F0 to 30 2er cent. 'he )ater 2ressure is more as the
su223y is 1rom the roo1 o1 each .3ock o1 L!&. <ut the condition is not a223ica.3e
here in 32u, .ecause o1 ri(id -oints o1 2i2es.
De/e9&+men# &' se,era$e 'a%i9i#ies? As 2ointed out ear3ier the consum2tion )i33
.e more, i1 the city is 2ro5ided )ith R13ush systemK and sha33 .e 3ess i1 there is a o3d
system o1 3atrines is ado2ted. $n e5ery .3ock o1 L2u there is 13ush system and
consum2tion o1 )ater is not there .ecause o1 ne) techniMues used in 3atrines. 'he
se)era(e 23ant is a3so there in L!& so the 5arious demands such as 1or c3othin(
and house c3eanin( 2ur2oses )e shou3d ha5e to .e use that )ater.
S)s#em &' su++9)? the )ater may .e su223ied either continuous3y 1or a33 the F+
hours o1 the day or may .e su223ied 1or 2eak 2eriods durin( mornin( and e5enin(.
'he second system, i.e. the intermittent su223ies, may 3ead to some sa5in( in )ater
consum2tion due to 3osses occurrin( 1or 3esser time and more 5i(i3ant use o1 )ater
.y the consumer. <ut in case o1 L!& continuous )ater su223y is there in F+ hours.
C&s# &' ,a#er: i1 the )ater rates are hi(h 3esser the )ater consum2tion, this may
3ead to the 3ar(e sa5in( as the a113uent and rich 2eo23e are 3itt3e a11ected .y such
P&+u9a#i&n "a#a an" +&+u9a#i&n $r&,#h?
!o2u3ation data: the 2resent 2o2u3ation o1 a to)n or a city can .e determined .y
conductin( an o11icia3 enumeration ca33ed census. 'he (o5ernment o1 e5ery
country (enera33y carries these o11icia3 sur5eys at inter5a3 o1 say a.out 10 years.
Some times sma33er 2eriod sur5eys are a3so conducted .y 3oca3 .odies or state
!O!&LA'$O% #O"ECAS'$%> ME'AO6S:
Since the )ater su223y systems are desi(ned 1or a certain desi(n 2eriod, instead o1
2resent 2o2u3ation, 2o2u3ation e92ected in the desi(n 2eriod must .e considered in
the desi(n o1 )ater su223y systems. #orecastin( o1 2o2u3ation can .e accom23ished
)ith di11erent mathematica3 methods .y usin( 2resent and 2ast 2o2u3ation records
that can .e o.tained 1rom 3oca3 census o11ice. 'hese methods are (enera33y
c3assi1ied under F cate(ories:
A0 Short term methods /1;10 years0
Arithmetic increase method
>eometric increase method
S33er <ankasT method
6ecreasin( rate o1 increase
>ra2hica3 e9tension
<0 Lon( term methods /10;D0 years0
Com2arati5e method
"atio P corre3ation method
Com2onent method
Lo(istic method /mathematica3 cur5e 1ittin(0
17 AIRTHMATIC INCREASE METHOD? this method is .ased u2on the
assum2tion that the 2o2u3ation increases at constant rate i.e. the rate o1 chan(e o1
2o2u3ation )ith time is constant.
Accordin( to this method
!n O U!oVn.WX
8here, !nO 2ros2ecti5e or 1orecasted 2o2u3ation a1ter n decades 1rom 2resent.
!oO 2o2u3ation at 2resent
nO o1 decades .et)een no) and 1uture
WO a5era(e o1 2o2u3ation increases in the kno)n decades
L!& is esta.3ished in F00D and in this decade the 2o2u3ation increases to 3D,000 in
F01+. So, .y this data )e ha5e ca3cu3ated the 1orecasted 2o2u3ation a1ter a decadeKs
i.e. in F0FD the 2o2u3ation may increases u2 to:
!O U3D000V1Y3D000X
8e took the a5era(e data o1 3ast 1 decade and the a5era(e 2o2u3ation comes out to
.e 3D,000.

As the 2o2u3ation increases )ith the time the )ater demand a3so increases.
$n this method, the 2er decade 2ercenta(e increases or 2ercenta(e (ro)th rate is
assumed to .e constant and the increase is com2ounded o5er the e9istin(
2o2u3ation e5ery decade. 'his method is there1ore a3so kno)n as uni1orm increase
'he .asic di11erence .et)een arithmetic and (eometric 2ro(ression methods 1or
1orecastin( 1uture 2o2u3ation is that in arithmetic method, no com2oundin( is done
.ut in (eometric method com2oundin( is done e5ery decade. 'he com2utation in
t)o methods is thus com2ara.3e to sim23e and com2ound interest com2utation,
'hus the 2o2u3ation a1ter n decade, !nO !o /1VrB1000Zn
8here r is in 2er cent,
!o O initia3 2o2u3ationL i.e. the 2o2u3ation at the end o1 3ast kno)n census.
!n O 1uture 2o2u3ation a1ter n decades.
'he 2o2u3ation o1 L!& 1rom F00D to F01+ increases 1rom 1000 to 3D000
'hus the 2ercenta(e increases in 2o2u3ation i.e. (ro)th rate /r0 O
Let us assume that, i1 the increase in rate o1 2o2u3ation o1 L!& is same
'he 2o2u3ation in F0FD )i33 .eO 3D000Y/1V0.970O6I,9D0
$n this method, the 2er decade (ro)th rate is not assumed to .e constant as in the
arithmetic or (eometric 2ro(ression methodsL .ut is 2ro(ressi5e3y increasin( or
decreasin(, de2endin( u2on )hether the a5era(e o1 the incrementa3 increases in
the 2ast data in 2ositi5e or ne(ati5e.
!nO !oVn9Vn /nV10BFYy
!nO 2o2u3ation (ro)th a1ter n decades,
[O a5era(e increase in 2o2u3ation o1 kno)n decades
O a5era(e o1 incrementa3 increases o1 kno)n decades.
Sim+9e $ra+hi%a9 me#h&"?
$n this method, a (ra2h is 23otted 1rom the a5ai3a.3e data, .et)een the time and
2o2u3ation. 'he cur5e is then smooth3y e9tended u2 to the desired year. 'he
method, ho)e5er, (i5es 5ery a22ro2riate resu3ts, as the e9tension o1 the cur5e is
done .y the inte33i(ence o1 the desi(ner.
'he a.o5e 1i(ure re2resents the increase in 2o2u3ation year .y year o1 a city. Aere
the ca3cu3ation o1 2o2u3ation o1 F0F0 )as ca3cu3ated. 'hey ha5e taken here the data
1rom 1I60 and ca3cu3ated the 1uture 2o2u3ation increase u2 to F0F0.
C&m+ara#i/e Gra+hi%a9 Me#h&"?
$n this method, the cities ha5in( conditions and characteristics simi3ar to the city
)hose 1uture 2o2u3ation is to .e estimated are se3ected. $t is then assumed that the
city under consideration )i33 de5e3o2, as the se3ected simi3ar cities ha5e de5e3o2ed
in the 2ast.

Ra#i& Me#h&"?
$n this method, the 3oca3 2o2u3ation and the countryHs 2o2u3ation 1or the 3ast 1our to
1i5e decades is o.tained 1rom the census records. 'he ratios o1 the 3oca3 2o2u3ation
to nationa3 2o2u3ation are then )orked out 1or these decades. A (ra2h is then
23otted .et)een time and these ratios, and e9tended u2 to the desi(n 2eriod to
e9tra2o3ate the ratio corres2ondin( to 1uture desi(n year. 'his ratio is then
mu3ti23ied .y the e92ected nationa3 2o2u3ation at the end o1 the desi(n 2eriod, so
as to o.tain the reMuired cityHs 1uture 2o2u3ation.
6ra).acks o1 ratio method:
1. 6e2ends on accuracy o1 nationa3 2o2u3ation estimate.
F. 6oes not consider the a.norma3 or s2ecia3 conditions )hich can 3ead to
2o2u3ation shi1ts 1rom one city to another.
The L&$is#i% Cur/e Me#h&"?
'he three 1actors res2onsi.3e 1or chan(es in 2o2u3ation are:
/i0 <irths, /ii0 6eaths and /iii0 Mi(rations.
Lo(istic cur5e method is .ased on the hy2othesis that )hen these 5aryin(
in13uences do not 2roduce e9traordinary chan(es, the 2o2u3ation )ou3d 2ro.a.3y
1o33o) the (ro)th cur5e characteristics o1 3i5in( thin(s )ithin 3imited s2ace and
)ith 3imited economic o22ortunity. 'he cur5e is S;sha2ed and is kno)n as 3o(istic
')o sim23e sketches sho)in( the 2ossi.3e 3ayouts o1 )ater su223y schemes are
(i5en in 1i(ures .e3o) a dam and a reser5oir are used and thus there is (enera33y no
need o1 2um2s L a )e33 or ri5er is used as the source ,needin( 2um2in(
eMui2ment .'he 5arious units in5o35ed in such schemes shou3d .e desi(ned not
on3y to ser5e the a5era(e dai3y demand .ut to ser5e the ma9imum demand as and
)hen it arise and a3so the 5ariations in the demand .'he 1o33o)in(
recommendations may .e ado2ted 1or desi(nin( the ca2acities o1 di11erent
com2onents .
10 'he sources o1 su223y such as )e33s may .e desi(ned 1or ma9imum dai3y
consum2tion or sometimes 1or a5era(e dai3y consum2tion.
F0 'he 2i2e mains takin( the )ater 1rom the source u2 to the ser5ice reser5oir may
.e desi(ned 1or ma9imum dai3y consum2tion.
30 'he 1i3ter and other units at )ater treatment 23ant may a3so .e desi(ned 1or
ma9imum dai3y dra1t .Sometimes an additiona3 2ro5ision 1or reser5e is a3so made
1or .reak do)ns and re2airs .'here1ore they may .e desi(ned 1or t)ice the a5era(e
dai3y instead o1 1.I times the a5era(e dai3y .
+0 'he 2um2s 3i1tin( the )ater may .e desi(ned 1or ma9imum dai3y dra1t 23us
some additiona3 reser5e 1or .reak;do)n and re2airsL say, 1or t)ice the a5era(e
dai3y 1.I times the a5era(e dai3y.
D0 'he distri.ution system inc3udin( the 2i2es carryin( )ater 1rom ser5ice
reser5oir to distri.ution system shou3d .e desi(ned 1or ma9imum hour3y dra1t o1
the ma9imum day or coincident dra1t )ith 1ire ,)hene5er is more .>enera33y , no
2ro5ision 1or reser5e is made .
60'he ser5ice reser5oir is desi(ned is desi(ned to take care o1 the hour3y
13uctuations ,1ire demands ,emer(ency reser5e , and the 2ro5ision reMuired )hen
2um2s ha5e to 2um2 the entire *dayKs )ater in 1e)er hours than F+ hours .On3y F
hours stora(e may .e considered 1or 1ire a33o)ance as su11icient .Ordinari3y the
reMuired stora(e a22ro9imate a dayKs consum2tion.
$t is a )or3d)ide 2erce2tion that )ater su223y )i33 decrease in times to come. $t is
estimated that (3o.a3 )ater )ithdra)a3s )i33 increase 3D 2er cent .et)een 199D
and F0F0. $t has .een estimated that in $ndia 2er ca2ita )ithdra)a3 o1 )ater is DID
m3year, out o1 )hich I 2er cent is 1or domestic 6 2er cent 1or industria3 use and I6
2er cent 1or a(ricu3ture. #ai3ure to .a3ance the su223y side and demand side o1
)ater resource mana(ement 2ro5ides a o1 ne(ati5e 3inks in our society,
3ike 3inks to 2u.3ic hea3th 2ro.3ems, en5ironmenta3 de(radation and economic 3oss
that are associated )ith the resu3tin( )ater stora(e.
'he su223y o1 )ater in 3ar(e cities o1 $ndia is (oin( to .e a .i( cha33en(e in 1uture.
'he ra2id increase in 2o2u3ation in these cities, de23etin( )ater resources and
enhanced consumer needs are (oin( to create a di11icu3t situation. 'he market
oriented de5e3o2ment is creatin( ne) needs in sectors 3ike entertainment industry,
tourism and .ui3din( industry, ada2ted ne) techno3o(ies 2ushin( u2 )ater needs,
more su223y in sho22in( ma33s, and so on. Simu3taneous3y, the a3armin( rise in
2o33ution 3e5e3s in sur1ace )ater needs a com2rehensi5e )ater 2o3icy 1or cities
)hich are suita.3e and satis1actory to (ro)in( needs o1 citiCens.
8e ha5e ca3cu3ated the )ater demand o1 32u hoste3s and 1o33o)in( is the data )e
ha5e co33ected:
'a.3e 3
S. %o Aoste3 <LOC= @uantity o1
%o. O1
!&"!OSE 'ota3
1 <A+ A 10000L F #ire
D000L 1 6rinkin( D000L
3000L I 6ai3y use F+000L
F <A+ < 10000L F #ire
3000L 7 6ai3y use F1000L
3 <A+ C 10000L 1 #ire
D000L + 6ai3y use F0000L
3000L + 6ai3y use 1F000L
+ <A+ 6 10000L F #ire
3000L 7 6ai3y use F1000L
D <A+ E/Mess0 10000L F #ire
D000L 10 6ai3y use D0000L
S. %o <LOC= @uantity o1
%o. o1 tanks !ur2ose Stora(e
1 FD
use ;;;;;;;;;;;;
ms etc.
F F6 D000 1 do D000 6o
F000 F do +000 6o
3000 F do 6000 6o
3 F7 3000 F do 6000 La.s etc.
3000 F do 6000 6o
'O'AL F7000
Ta(9e <
Seria3 %o. Aoste3 <3ock %o. o1
!er ca2ita
1 <A+ A 39I F9000L 1I3LBday
F < 3++ F1000L 1D3LBday
3 C 19D 3F000L 16+LBday
+ 6 30D F1000L 173LBday
D E/Mess0 +I0 D0000L F60LBday
'O'AL 17FF 1D3000L
N&#e? The Cuan#i#) &' ,a#er men#i&ne" in a(&/e #a(9e is "ai9) use ,hi%h
in%9u"es ,a#er use" '&r (a#hin$8 '9ushin$8 %9eanin$8 "rinkin$ e#%F
EB%9u"in$ 'ire %&n#in$en%) s#&ra$e ,a#erF
'he o1 students in FD, F6, F7 .3ocks is F+00, di5idin( this .y tota3 stora(e
(i5es us 2er ca2ita demand o1 11.FD LB!B6
8ater resource mana(ement is a.out the Muantitati5e ana3ysis and com2rehensi5e
inte(ration on systematic 3e5e3 1or re(iona3 )ater resources in as2ects o1
de5e3o2ment, uti3iCation, mana(ement, con1i(uration, conser5ation and 2rotection.
On the one hand, it sha33 2ro5ide )ater resource .asic 1or .asin 3and 23annin( and
economic 3ayout 23annin(L on the other hand, it can coordinate the re3ation .et)een
the s2ecia3iCed 23annin(Ks o1 13ood 2rotection and )ater 3o((in( contro3, )ater;
sa5in( irri(ation, )ater su223y, hydroe3ectric 2o)er, )ater and soi3
conser5ation, .y read-ustin( the s2ace;time distri.ution o1 )ater yie3d and
1ormu3atin( the standard o1 )ater en5ironment, so, it 23ays an im2ortant ro3e 1or
mankind in the )ho3e 2rocess o1 de5e3o2in( and uti3iCin( )ater resource. O)in( to
the mo.i3ity character o1 )ater, the distur.ance o1 one 2oint o1 draina(e .asin sha33
a11ect the circum and do)nstream areas, there1ore, durin( the 2rocess o1
com2rehensi5e3y mana(in( .asin )ater resource, one shou3d make an ana3ysis o1
the en5ironmenta3 in13uence o1 5arious mana(ement strate(ies and de5e3o2ment
23ans .y .asin( on the corres2ondin( en5ironmenta3 mode3, at the same time,
synthesiCe, ana3yCe and com2are the demands o1 di11erent 2arts to the 1unctions o1
)ater resource .y inte(ratin( the 3oca3 natura3 and socia3 conditions, 1ina33y, ma2
out the o2tima3 decision o1 )ater resource mana(ement in draina(e .asin. 'hen it
1o33o)s that 5arious kinds o1 en5ironmenta3 2rocess mode3s are em2hasiCed in the
2rocess o1 mana(in( and 23annin( .asin )ater resource, )hich inc3udes steady
state and dynamic state )ater;13o) mode3s, mu3tidimensiona3 )ater Mua3ity mode3
and 2o33ution di11usion mode3, etc.
Resu9#s an" "is%ussi&n?
<y conductin( the 5arious data o1 )ater in 5arious .3ocks )e ha5e studied the
5arious 1actors on )hich )ater demand de2end and the 1actors )hich cause
increase and decrease in )ater demand. <y (ettin( data 1rom 5arious cities 1rom
2re5ious researches )e ha5e make an assum2tion o1 L!&.
#rom this (ra2h )e ha5e (ot in1ormation a.out the )ater demand in each hour o1 a
day in 5arious cities. Ludhiana, )hich is near to the ?a3andhar ha5in( )ater
demand o1 FF0LBcBd. So, )e ha5e conc3uded that the )ater demand in ?a3andhar is
some)hat 5aries to Ludhiana. 'he )ater demand in L2u increases u2 to F0E in the
month o1 A2ri3, may, ?une and ?u3y. 'he )ater used in L!& is (round )ater. 8ater
is taken to a 3ar(e tank )ith the he32 o1 )ater 2um2s.
One o1 the most im2ortant conc3usions 1rom our ana3ysis is that around D0 2ercent
o1 the increase in demand 1or )ater .y the year F0FD can .e met .y increasin( the
e11ecti5eness o1 irri(ation. 8hi3e some o1 the remainin( )ater de5e3o2ment needs
can .e met .y sma33 dams and con-uncti5e use o1 aMui1ers, medium and 3ar(e dams
)i33 a3most certain3y a3so .e needed. $n comin( year the 2o2u3ation o1 L!&
increases and need 3ar(e amount o1 )ater 1or di11erent 2ur2oses .ecause o1 this the
(round )ater a3so may (et decrease.
10 8ater su223y en(ineerin( .y S.= >ar(
2) )))
3) htt2s:BB)))
4) "esearch 2a2er .y 6a5id seck3er, "adhika de si35a on to2ic )ater
demand 1rom 1990 to F0FD.
5) )))

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