Firstpost Book, Prime Minister Narendra Modi

Prime Minister
Modi
Copyright 2012 Firstpost
Table of contents
Decoding A Never Before Mandate
Real Modinomics: Why free market supporters could be in for a shock 04
With mandate for economic reform, heres what Modi must do next 06
Mandate Modi: What India really wants from its new PM 07
Perils of the big mandate: Why Narendra Modi must be careful 09
Five ways Modis big win has changed Indias political reality 11
For A CEO-style Leader, A Cabinet To Match
Yes Prime Minister! Why Modis cabinet picks dont matter 15
Arun Jaitley vs Arun Shourie: Frontrunners for FM in Modi sarkar? 17
Free for all: In Modi sarkar, BJP netas scramble for top posts 19
Sneak peek at Modis cabinet: Jaitley as FM, Rajnath for home 21
New PM, Old Fears
The 69% issue: Will Modi stand for those who didnt vote him? 24
Why Gopal Gandhis open letter to Modi is wrong-headed and odious 27
Threatening Ananthamurthy: Will Modi-led BJP say no to right wing thugs? 29
Early Forays Into Foreign Policy
Why Modis invite to Sharif is no olive branch to Pakistan 32
A hawk or a moderate? Modis National Security Adviser must know Pak 34
Can Modi diplomacy improve ties in Indias western frontier? 36
Modi invited SAARC leaders for swearing-in to strengthen ties: BJP 38
Decoding A Never Before Mandate
Real Modinomics: Why free market
supporters could be in for a shock
MK Venu May 14, 2014
S
ome classical right wing economic think-
ers trained in American universities are
already imagining that Narendra Modi
would follow an economic policy template
informed by the "effcient market hypothesis".
Arvind Panagariya , Professor of Economics
at Columbia University who has publicly pro-
claimed his admiration for Narendra Modi's
Gujarat growth model, has already begun airing
ideas for Modi.
These economists, anxiously trying to sell new
ideas, will be disappointed simply because Modi
prefers very pragmatic, homegrown economic
modelling and may not have much patience for
theoretical categories received from the west.
Modi could use market solutions if it suits him
or he could even go for a completely State-led
approach on key policy questions which might
resemble some of Amartaya Sens prescriptions,
shocking doctrinaire market economists. In
short, Modi will defy known templates of eco-
nomic theory and practice. This is because the
starting point of Modis thought process will be
the political economy framework within which
the farmers, craftsmen, weavers, small busi-
nesses and the self employed operate.
For instance, his promise virtually at every pub-
lic rally of providing creative employment to the
bulging youth population is likely to involve the
use of State apparatus on a big scale.
What really needs to be watched is how Modi
uses the the State apparatus to drive new ideas.
This is something classical liberal economists
are deeply uncomfortable about. Manmohan
Singh was inherently averse to using the State
to directly provide employment. He was initially
very uncomfortable with the rural employment
guarantee programme. Modi wants to further
institutionalise MNREGA by linking it to asset
creation.
Modi explicitly promised last week at a public
meeting in Varanasi that he would come up
with a cost plus formula to provide the farmers
a return of 50 percent over the total input costs
incurred. This means if the total cost incurred
by the farmer is Rs.100, he would get Rs.150 for
the produce which the government will ensure.
Now market oriented economists dislike any
economic activity carried out on a cost plus
basis. They would simply want the market
to dictate the price received by the producer,
whether a farmer or a manufacturer. Modi has
proposed a Market Stabilisation Fund for farm-
ers to get optimum price for their produce. And
Modi seriously believes he knows his agricul-
ture economics after Gujarat's high agriculture
growth rate over the last decade. Though many
economists are extremely uncomfortable with
the idea of a market stabilisation fund, Pana-
gariya has sought to propose some form of cash
transfer to farmers instead of creating a fund.
But Modi may think differently.
Panagariya and Jagdish Bhagwati are both
staunch believers in the larger welfare benefts
of removing barriers to free trade in goods and
services. Modi's bias may be to protect the do-
mestic sector in critical areas, like retail, insur-
ance, banking etc where BJP may argue further
strengthening of the local industry before open-
ing up.
Modi has said publicly he would follow the Gan-
dhian economic model of Trusteeship which is
passionately endorsed by BJP's ideological men-
tor, the RSS. It might be interesting to imagine
a conversation between Jagdish Bhagwati and
a few Sangh Parivar elders on this subject. One
clearly recalls what Bhagwati had said about a
homegrown economist who gave regular in-
puts for policy making during Vajpayee's NDA
regime. Bhagwati had publicly tried to deride
that economist by saying, If he is an economist,
then I am a Bharat Natyam dancer.
Those were the days when reputed economists
trained in the West would be wary of associat-
ing with the BJP and Sangh Parivar, describ-
ing them as non-modern in their approach.
Of course, things have changed dramatically
now. Top economists are lining before the BJP
leadership with their CVs and ideas to revive
growth. Indeed, some of them may not even
mind doing some Bharat Natyam, if required.
Ultimately Modi will treat technical advice for
what it is -- just advice, and then proceed to do
whatever is politically pragmatic and effective.
Modi will attempt to deliver high GDP growth.
But make no mistake, his bigger obsession will
be to politically consolidate the new social con-
stituencies he has managed to attract under his
leadership, especially from the other regional
formations in the 2014 general elections.
With mandate for economic reform,
heres what Modi must do next
Dhiraj Nayyar May 18, 2014
T
he mandate given by the people of India
to the Narendra Modi-led BJP and NDA
is strikingly similar to the one received
by Indira Gandhi in 1971. And its not just about
the proximate seat tallies (Indira won 352, Modi
has won 334). These are perhaps the only two
occasions in democratic Indias history that a
party has won a decisive positive mandate based
largely on the promise of a new economic agen-
da. In 1984, the last time a single party achieved
a majority in Parliament, Rajiv Gandhi won on
the back of a sympathy wave. The verdicts of
1977 and 1980, also clear mandates, were nega-
tive votes, against the authoritarian Congress
and the infghting Janata Party.
But in 1971, Indira Gandhi fought the polls on
an aggressive left-wing economic platform. And
the resounding mandate she received for Gar-
ibi Hatao euphemism for a much greater role
of the state in the economy -- translated into
signifcant change in policy. Without passing
judgment on the merits of either, the nation-
alisation of banks and the abolition of princely
purses were radical measures backed by a plu-
rality of voters.
Now, in 2014, voters have handed Narendra
Modi a clear mandate the BJP has a simple
majority without any allies. For the paranoid
on the Left, this is a mandate for brute majori-
tarianism. That is the view they may share with
some extreme right-wing loonies.
But for a majority of those who voted for Modi,
this is a mandate to fx Indias moribund econ-
omy, to revive the India story which has gone
so horribly wrong in the last three years and to
lead India to its rightful place in the comity of
nations.
Unlike 1971, this is a verdict against big gov-
ernment. Rather fttingly, it may actually be
THE fnal verdict to remove the last vestiges of
licence-permit raj and the statist economy that
Indira Gandhi had introduced after the man-
date of 1971.
Modi likes to say that this is a verdict about
aspiration and hope. It is. But it is also about a
specifc path to a better economic future. Modis
Gujarat model of minimum government, maxi-
mum governance is essentially about
1) Getting the state out of the business of busi-
ness,
2) Abolishing excessive policy discretion,
3) Heavy investment in infrastructure
4) Investment in skills and human resource de-
velopment rather than spending on doles and
5) Trusting the states rather than the Centre to
deliver public services.
It is the anti-thesis of the Nehru-Gandhi model.
And because the Gujarat chief minister used
the Gujarat model extensively in the campaign,
he has acquired the mandate and legitimacy to
implement its principles in India. He will need
to persuade his ministers and Parliament to act.
There are no excuses, like coalition pressures,
for the future Narendra Modi government. The
next prime minister doesnt seem like a politi-
cian who looks for them in any case.
Mandate Modi: What India really
wants from its new PM
R Jagannathan May 19, 2014
T
he beauty of an electoral verdict is that
we can read all kinds of things into it,
depending on where we come from. But
if we were to take a birds-eye view, here are
some thoughts on what the electorates decision
to give the BJP a majority of its own - and the
NDA a super-majority - could mean.
First, it is a mandate to deliver results. It is not
about right-wing ideology or anything else. The
campaign was on governance and development,
and the electorate has offered Narendra Modi
this bargain: you need a majority, you have it.
Now, give us growth and governance.
Second, it is a mandate against false identity
politics. But it is not a mandate for majoritari-
anism or exclusion. Even though Muslims may
have voted against the BJP in many places, the
people who did vote for it except for some
marginal fringe elements - did not do so to
bring in sectarian politics. A decade of strong
growth has made all communities aspirational.
They know that sectarianism will kill growth.
Third, it is mandate against dynasty politics.
The fact that the only non-BJP victors in Ut-
tar Pradesh are all Gandhi or Mulayam family
members should shame both these families.
When the electorate rejects all their candidates
but themselves, the only thing it proves is that
there is still a feudal vestige left in some places.
But every other member of these parties must
be wondering if they are in the right place. The
only parties to receive thumping mandates of
their own Mamata in West Bengal, Jayalalith-
aa in Tamil Nadu, and Naveen Patnaik in Odi-
sha are all non-dynastic. Patnaik is an excep-
tion, but he is a bachelor, and has no family axe
to grind in Odisha.
Fourth, the mandate is for restoring the prestige
of the Prime Ministers Offce. The last 10 years
of the UPA left the offce debased, thanks to the
excessive meekness of Manmohan Singh, and
the Dynastys deliberate efforts to hold on to the
reins of power indirectly. This is what made the
choice of Modi the ultimate non-dynast, who
is no ones idea of anybodys lackey obvious to
the electorate.
Fifth, this is a decisive vote for change cutting
across classes: the upper classes want growth,
the middle classes want jobs and higher sala-
ries, and the lower classes want inclusion with
dignity, not patronising doles. This is why a gov-
ernment that enabled the biggest redistributive
effort ever was booted out of offce ignomini-
ously. Modi represents growth with dignity.
Sixth, this is a mandate for a responsive govern-
ance. The people are fed up with governments
that seem remote. The rise of the Aam Aadmi
Party in Delhi before Arvind Kejriwal screwed
up - is because the people saw a leader respond-
ing to their needs. Modi epitomises responsive
leadership of a different kind: he talks to the
people directly and in their lingo without the
need for middlemen. His offce fnds a way to
give ordinary people access by being responsive
to their emails or grievances. Thats one reason
why Modi scored.
Seventh, this is not quite a mandate against cor-
ruption. Despite the entry of BS Yeddyurappa
in Karnataka, the BJP won. But it is a mandate
to make corruption less all-pervasive. No one
wants corruption to become a huge impediment
to getting things done. Modis appeal is that he
has steadily whittled down the need for people
to interact with venal government offcials in
Gujarat so most things can get done without
much hassle. Gujarat can hardly claim to be a
corruption-free state, but systemic corruption is
reducing steadily and transparency increasing.
Eighth, this is a mandate from the rest of India
to tame Delhi; it is a revolt against the domina-
tion of the Delhi political and social elite in In-
dian politics. This is why they chose a rank out-
sider to Delhi and gave him a massive mandate.
Modi represents the regional anger with Delhis
dominance in the national discourse. The states
want Modi to tame Delhi. The emphatic wins of
Mamata, Jayalalithaa and Naveen Patnaik also
emphasise the anti-Delhi nature of the man-
date. Remember, all three have been mentioned
as potential prime ministers.
Ninth, the mandate shows that the nation is
speaking more or less with one voice. This is a
fervent plea from all Indians that we need to
make India great again. Different Indians may
want different things from India, but this is as
close to a national consensus vote as there is
likely to be. Nothing epitomises this more than
the sad defeat - zero MPs - of the BSP. The Dal-
its are joining the mainstream.
The bottomline message from the voter is this:
give us a government that works, not a govern-
ment that gives us excuses for non-perform-
ance. It is a mandate to change Indian politics
and governance for the better.
Perils of the big mandate:
Why Narendra Modi must be careful
Akshaya Mishra May 19, 2014
N
arendra Modi must be careful, very
careful. With big popular mandates
come tagged the warning note: Dont
take peoples support for granted, it will be
withdrawn if you fail to meet expectations. He
has promised too much, been all things to all
people; now he has to prove that all that hype
around him is backed by substance. He is still
an untested quantity in national politics. He will
be under watch.
Modi would be well-advised to look into the
cases of Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav in
Uttar Pradesh. The former won a whopping 206
seats of the states 403 in 2007, but squandered
the goodwill quickly. Just as she was getting
complacent that she had worked a formidable
social engineering formula to stay in power, the
shocker came in the form 2012 assembly poll
results. Her BSP was reduced to 80 seats while
the Samajwadi Party managed a handsome 224
seats. After the impressive victory, Mulayams
party was quick to go back to its errant ways.
The slap from the voters has been resounding
it ended up with a paltry fve seats of the 80 in
the state in the just concluded elections.
While the UPAs case will remain a persistent
reminder what complacency can do the fate of
political entities, he can take a look at the re-
sults in the last few elections in Rajasthan too.
Massive mandates and near total blank outs
come together in the desert state. Big mandates
are no guarantee for a second chance. They
come with conditioned attached.
The biggest trouble with the UPA-II was mis-
reading the verdict of 2009. Inside the party it
was interpreted in several ways; efforts were
made to ft the mandate into ideological strait-
jackets. At the end of its fve-year term, there
was still no consensus on the nature of the vic-
tory. This resulted in the party pulling in several
directions in all matters, particularly the econ-
omy. Problems in analysing electoral success
or failure arise when the wildly complex factors
that determine results are reduced to a set of
few standardized ones caste engineering,
communal polarisation, populist schemes and
coalition building, for example. Such analysis
tosses thousands of other variables that infu-
ence voting out of the window.
Modi should avoid this reductionist tendency
a common disease among experts while
analysing his success and not carried away. It
leads to a trap where successful parties keep
getting into. Heres a look at the way he should
not interpret his victory.
Its a victory for the Gujarat model of economy:
Well, it is not. While economists keep tom-
toming about the magnifcence of the model,
theres reason to be skeptical about its exclusive
existence in the state in the frst place. The so-
called model is a broad template which all other
developed and less developed states have been
following since the opening up of the economy
with varying degrees of success. He should not
be guided into believing that a one-size-fts-all
economic formula would work in a country with
such diversity. And yes, he must remember that
the villager in Uttar Pradesh or Bihar who voted
for him does not quite understand models. He
has invested trust in him, it is Modis job to not
let him feel alienated from the economic proc-
ess.
It is a defeat for secularism: No way. Modi is
stoutly backed by elements who are strongly
associated with aggressive Hindutva and subtly
playing up his hard line image was an important
tactical move in the battleground states. There
were attempts at communal polarisation of
votes in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Now that the
party has come with impressive performances
in both the states it should not be construed as a
deathblow to old world secularism. They did not
vote for the likes of Mulayam and the Congress
because the parties were making secularism an
excuse for other serious failings. The Indian vot-
er is impatient with forces of disturbance and
instability. Once theres a feeling that the party
is encouraging disruptive forces, the voters
would take no time to turn his back on him.
Its a mandate for one-man rule: The voters
have spared Modi the trouble of a heading a co-
alition government. It is a unique mandate and
he should feel fortunate about that. However,
this should be no license to run roughshod over
others, particularly those with contrarian points
of view. Indians appreciate a strong leader, but
they also hate leaders with a dictatorial ten-
dency. Contemporary India is rich with ideas
and opinions. Any action to muzzle expression
would be counterproductive for him. He must
be wary of the regressive forces his victory is
likely to unleash.
Modi is known to be a pragmatic person, not
easily swayed by theories that dont appeal to
his political common sense. But he too needs to
be careful.
Five ways Modis big win has
changed Indias political reality
Lakshmi Chaudhry May 17, 2014
E
veryone will inevitably focus on the big
tallies: the sheer awesome size of the
Modi tsunami; the abject defeat of the
Congress; the shocking upsets and devastating
losses. It is a new era under a new leader, one
where the Gandhi surname can still win a seat
but no longer the election; where minority votes
are required to prevail; where regional alliances
are no longer a necessity. But the historic vic-
tory is not just about what no longer holds true.
But the real story of this election is better told
and understood when we pull together fve out-
comes that together trace the contours of a radi-
cally new political reality and hints of future
trends that will lead to a truly new India.
Baghpat, Uttar Pradesh: The biggest Jat leader
in Uttar Pradesh lost the constituency he has
held since 1998, when he formed his own party,
the Rashtriya Lok Dal. That Ajit Singh lost to a
frst time BJP candidate, former Mumbai Police
Commissioner Satyapal Singh, is perhaps the
best symbol of the size and strength of the Modi
wave in Uttar Pradesh. It was indeed a tsunami
as Amit Shah predicted.
The unprecedented consolidation of the Jat vote
behind the BJP marks its complete dominance
of Uttar Pradesh politics and one that should
give great pause to its current ruling Samajwadi
Party. The SP had built a winning electoral
coalition by aligning Jat and Muslim voters, a
formula that now is irretrievably broken. The
next state elections arent till 2017, but we can
expect Amit Shah is already planning SPs fall
right now.
Ajit Singhs fall marks the decisive realignment
of UP politics and voting blocs that no one party
will be able to undo in the near future. If Modi
can paint the Hindi heartland saffron both at
the state and centre over the next couple of
years, BJP will remain unbeatable for a very,
very long time.
Uttar Pradesh may well be the staging ground
for a long era of BJP hegemony.
Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh: It was an enormous
gamble, but Arvind Kejriwal was a man used
to doubling down on bad odds. After all, it had
worked so well for him in the past. No one in
AAP seriously expected Narendra Modi to do
a Sheila Dikshit, but a strong showing from
Kejriwal would have, in one fell swoop, put him
in the same league as the most popular national
leader in recent history.
But unfortunately, Dame Luck no longer fa-
vours the ultimate aam aadmi and has not for
a while, not since he pushed his luck over and
over again. The last straw being the silly deci-
sion to abandon the largesse in Delhi for im-
aginary gains in Varanasi. Kejriwal wanted to
position himself as the only credible anti-Modi
leader in the country. He has instead managed
to underline the vast and seemingly unbridgea-
ble gap between his ambitions and his strength.
More damagingly, the one sole bright spot for
AAP ie Punjab has little to do with its leader
who didnt campaign prominently for its candi-
dates in the state.
The lesson for AAP is clear: It wins when it puts
issues before personality and publicity gim-
micks. In other words, keep it simple, keep it
small. The AAP project can hardly be deemed a
failure. Its every victory has been hard won in
a system that favours big money and vote bank
pandering. And each represents the hope that
we are moving toward a true democracy whose
politics is open to all comers. If Kejriwal and
his party or others who will inevitably come in
their place -- learn well from their mistakes, the
future will usher in an exciting expansion of our
political system that bodes well for the nation.
Mumbai, Maharashtra: Take your pick: Mum-
bai South or Mumbai North Central. Both tell
the same story. Milind Deoras defeat to the
Shiv Sena candidate Arvind Sawant in a seat
which the Sena lost decisively in 2009 speaks
of the strength of the Modi wave in Maharash-
tra. Where Deora was able to split the opposi-
tion vote between MNS and the Sena last time,
he failed this year because of a Modi-driven
consolidation that drew the Marathi vote to the
BJP+ camp. The same can be said about the tri-
umph of the underdog BJP candidate Poonam
Mahajan who ousted the popular Priya Dutt in
North Central Mumbai despite a very low key
campaign.
The Shiv Sena can surely celebrate the booty
that Modis popularity has brought, but it
should also give his rightwing allies cause to
worry. If he is eating into their traditional base,
and their electoral fortunes are tied to his coat-
tails, it puts Modi squarely in the drivers seat
vis a vis his rightwing allies. And we all know
how that turned out in Gujarat.
Tamil Nadu: It is not any one race but the big,
fat 36 that sits next to AIADMKs symbol in the
tally of leads till now. Jayalalitha now heads the
third largest party in the country and that is no
mean achievement for the lady of Poes Garden.
That she sent clear signals by political stand-
ards of her willingness to play nice with the
BJP likely also helped her mop up the foor with
the DMK, pulling her partys seat tally up from
9 to 36 this year out of the state's 39 seats.
There is no better way to step on to the national
stage than with such a big win under her belt.
Neither the BJP nor Modi need her support
to rule in the Centre. But that disappointment
is surely tempered by the realization that the
decimation of Congress now leaves her regional
party as the one true independent power center
in the nation.
BJPs fortunes in Tamil Nadu have remained
static, despite that golden handshake from
Rajinikanth whose magic couldnt match that
of Jaya. And whatever the BJP may say, Jay-
alalithaa is likely to tout herself as the one big
standout against the Modi wave and one who
is far more invulnerable than her shakier Ben-
gal counterpart, where the BJP has managed to
wring a higher vote share.
Modi may rule India, but it is Jaya who has
emerged as the strongwoman of the South, a po-
sition that leaves her plenty of room to maneu-
ver.
Amritsar, Punjab: To earn his spurs in a future
Modi sarkar, Arun Jaitley was asked to get his
aristocratic hands dirty and run for a Lok Sabha
seat. And then he lost, decisively, to Congress
partys Amarinder Singh and in the midst of a
Modi wave that was sweeping far smaller names
to success. The humiliation aside, the conse-
quences for Jaitleys career in the short run are
likely to be minimal. He remains the front-run-
ner for a prominent cabinet post, likely Finance
minister. And he will remain one of the big pow-
er players in the Delhi political establishment
and within BJP.
But the implications for his long-terms aspira-
tions are dire. If Jaitleys heart secretly wants
more as in a shot at the Prime Ministers job
that dream died today. If there is one single
message every politician and party learnt from
the Congress partys headlong dive is that there
is no place in this new India for gentlemen poli-
ticians, the kind who enter by the Rajya Sabha
backdoor. No more Manmohan Singhs! No
longer can the Chidambarams and Jaitleys hope
to ascend the highest peak without ever facing
the people. The only mark of leadership is the
ability to win elections starting with ones
own.
Elections 2014 are not just historic because
of the sheer numbers on the board. They are
historic because they represent a classic realign-
ing election, decisively shifting voting blocs and
behavior. These are not outcomes driven by
temporary factors such as an assassination or
a national catastrophe. And they are therefore
far harder to shake or alter by merely rejigger-
ing a campaign message or party platform or
alliances. The mandate received by Modi marks
the beginnings of a new political power confgu-
ration both at the centre and in the states, and
therefore will be driven by a new power dynam-
ic whose workings will unfold more fully over
the next fve years.
For A CEO-style Leader,
A Cabinet To Match
Yes Prime Minister!
Why Modis cabinet picks dont matter
MK Venu May 22, 2014
T
here is frenetic speculation on what sort
of Cabinet will Narendra Modi choose in
order to deliver the big promises he has
made to the nation. Normally in a coalition ar-
rangement, as in the case of UPA, the partners
were actively consulted and indeed they would
make their wish known to the Prime Minister.
This routinely leaked to the media and often
such likely appointments would be debated on
TV channels, as had happened in the case of
telecom minister A.Raja after Manmohan Singh
took charge as PM under UPA II. Coalition
partners routinely put their claim on certain
important ministries. Mamata Banerjee had
specifcally asked for Railways, a high visibility
portfolio from the perspective of the common
man. One was also reasonably certain that
Sharad Pawar would get Agriculture, given his
inclination for that portfolio.
But with Narendra Modis thumping electoral
victory the Cabinet formation is totally shroud-
ed in secrecy. There are no claimants from
among the coalition partners and only Modi
knows what sort of Cabinet ministers he will
appoint. Of course there is some certainty that
top leaders of BJP such as Arun Jaitley, Rajnath
Singh, Sushma Swaraj would get some impor-
tant portfolios.
It is also obvious that Modi will give a major
representation to UP and Bihar where BJP has
made a huge dent, especially among dalits and
backwards. There would be predictable political
messaging on these aspects. Modi will take care
to give representation to states like Tamilnadu,
Orissa and West Bengal, Assam where BJP has
shown impressive performance for the frst
time.
Though the media is incessantly speculating on
the names of Cabinet ministers, the real sur-
prise will be in terms of the structure of admin-
istration that Modi places at the top. A hint of
this came from Arun Shourie who has said Modi
may have a quasi Presidential style govern-
ance structure at the PMO. This is interesting
because the BJP consciously ran a presidential
style campaign and the vote was projected as
a referendum on Modi. It is natural that this is
followed up with a somewhat US Presidential
style working arrangement at the PMO level.
What could this be like?
Simply put this means Modi will have a very
strong PMO with key persons driving policies
on the economy, foreign policy and national se-
curity. The policies will be feshed out and then
handed over formally to the Cabinet Ministers
concerned, whether fnance, defence, commerce
or home for implementation. Modi may directly
consult the Cabinet ministers before the details
of policy are feshed out and then it is pushed
hard at the political level with full backing given
to the bureaucrats to implement.
This arrangement somewhat takes away the
independence presently enjoyed by the Cabinet
ministers and the top bureaucrats working un-
der them. Of course you wont have a situation
like Jiaram Ramesh writing a letter to the PM
disagreeing with him on environment clearance
or Kamalnath writing to Planning Commission
to refrain from interfering in the award of road
projects, or the Home Minister disagreeing with
the UIDAI authority on how to go about cover-
ing the population for granting unique identity
numbers!
Under the Modi arrangement, the PMO offcials
might be experts from the outside or former bu-
reaucrats with special skills, who will guide the
government. It may be recalled that during the
NDA regime we had a very strong Principal Sec-
retary in Brajesh Mishra. Mishra had tried to set
up a Special Management Group(SMG) to drive
policy and direct other ministries. That scheme
had got sabotaged because both Vajpayee and
Mishra did not have the full backing of the then
RSS leadership which accused Mishra of creat-
ing an extra constitutional authority. This time
the RSS may support such an authority under
Modi. The RSS has fully owned Modi and his
stunning victory. So the PMO this time will have
unhindered powers.
In a way, one can imagine that under Modis
Presidential style of policy making every detail
will be feshed out between the PM and con-
cerned ministers, and the passing of the deci-
sion at the Cabinet will be a mere formality. For
instance, the big ideas in the Union budget will
be decided by the PM and the FM will work on
the details with the help of the tax department
and expenditure division. In UPA II, Man-
mohan Singh hardly gave any big ideas of his
own for budget making and Pranab Mukherjee
would fnalise the draft budget and send it , as
per protocol, to the PM for his clearance.
Manmohan Singh, even if he disagreed with
some provisions, like retrospective taxation,
perhaps chose not to intervene. In Narendra
Modis government the fow will be reversed.
All big ideas will fow from the PMO which will
have the strongest secretariat possibly since the
days of Indira Gandhi.
Arun Jaitley vs Arun Shourie:
Frontrunners for FM in Modi sarkar?
Dhiraj Nayyar May 21, 2014
T
here is no ministry more crucial for the
success of Narendra Modi's govern-
ment than the Ministry of Finance. The
BJP has won a stunning mandate on a promise
to revive the stalled economy. And fve years
from now, the government will be judged on its
economic performance. So it's hardly surprising
that all eyes are on who Modi will choose for the
important task.
There has been plenty of speculation on who
will be the fnance minister: Arun Jaitley, Arun
Shourie or Bimal Jalan/Deepak Parekh/Arvind
Panagariya. Leave aside for a moment the indi-
viduals. The choice before Modi is this: appoint
a professional politician, appoint someone who
combines politics with obvious economic exper-
tise or choose a hitherto apolitical technocrat.
Each has its merits and pitfalls. In the end,
some of the toughest and most important re-
form measures to revive the economy need im-
mense political skills.
Would not a hardened politician, like Arun
Jaitley, be best positioned to get the Good and
Services Tax implemented? After all, it would
require someone with political stature to ne-
gotiate with powerful chief ministers, across
party lines, driving a hard bargain. Would it
also not make sense for a politician to persuade
the country, with forceful articulation in sim-
ple language, about the need to prune wasteful
subsidies?
Remember also, that the BJP will not have a
majority in the Rajya Sabha, so legislation will
require support from opposition parties. Again,
only a veteran politician would have the skills
to acquire this support. A seasoned politician
would also be able to crack the whip on cabinet
colleagues who lobby for wasteful expenditures.
Still, there isnt an open and shut case for a
professional politician to occupy the fnance
ministry.
Could not someone like Arun Shourie, who has
been in active politics (but no longer is) and
who also has considerable domain expertise as
a trained economist be better suited to the job?
Perhaps someone who is not mired in partisan
politics and whose outstanding reputation as
a technocrat is better positioned to persuade
chief ministers on the merits of the GST. Also,
someone with some expertise in economics
may be better placed to direct a cutting down in
subsidies and reorientation of government ex-
penditure. However, on legislative matters, the
political weight of the prime minister may be
required. But that disadvantage could be more
than made up by the extra confdence such an
appointment would inspire in investors, both
domestic and foreign.
The case for an outsider technocrat is based on
the Manmohan Singh experiment of 1991.
Of course Manmohan Singh wasn't much of
an outsider having been fnance secretary, RBI
Governor and Deputy Chairman of the Plan-
ning Commission. He knew the way govern-
ment functioned. The chief argument against
someone who doesnt have extensive experi-
ence in government is that they wont be able
to navigate the byzantine world of politics and
babudom. The main argument in favour is that
a technocrat would not be burdened in any
way by the need to appease particular interest
groups or constituencies, a weakness of anyone
in active politics. In a crisis, a technocrat backed
by a powerful prime minister may be an option
worth considering. But is India in such a crisis
today? Not necessarily.
Modis fnal decision may depend on how much
of the heavy lifting on the economy he would
want to do himself. If he wants to be hands on,
he will appoint a technocrat. But a prime min-
ister has several responsibilities, and Modi may
not want to get tied down to the many battles
the fnance ministry will have to fght its way
through, with other ministries, with states, with
the bureaucracy. If that is the case, a politician
like Arun Jaitley or a semi-politician like Arun
Shourie is the likely choice and not a technocrat.
Fortunately for all those with an eye on the
economy, both the Aruns would be eminently
suitable fnance ministers.
Free for all: In Modi sarkar,
BJP netas scramble for top posts
Sanjay Singh May 21, 2014
A
t 6 pm on 26 May, Narendra Modi will
take the oath of offce as the 23rd Prime
Minister of India in the forecourt of
Rashtrapati Bhawan.
This much has been known to the world since
last afternoon. But even as he announced the
time after receiving President Pranab Mukhr-
erjees letter, most BJP leaders were still in the
dark about their 'role' in the new government.
The strength of the mandate, Modi-mania
among party workers at large and his masterly
acceptance speech has left party leaders awe-
struck and driven his in-house critics into either
submission or silence.
Most party leaders who think they could have
had some chance of getting a cabinet berth now
dont want to be seen seeking trivial details. Still
others are making educated guesses about why
Modi opted to assume offce next Monday.
Party leaders suggest that it will give Modi
enough time to mull over composition of his
government, its size and its priorities. He also
has to ensure that there is a smooth transition
of government in Gujarat before he shifts base
to Delhi.
A reliable party source told Firstpost that Mo-
dis meeting with RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat
on 10 May, the day campaigning for last phase
of polling ended, was very signifcant. It was
decided in this meeting that there would be no
direct interference from the Sangh Parivar in
government formation.
Modi has been given a free hand but he has also
been given a few suggestions, pertaining to min-
istries that have a direct bearing on RSSs out-
look and work areas. These 'suggestions' related
to four ministries, most notably to the ministry
of HRD and culture.
There have also been talks between the top RSS
functionaries and Modi to fgure out the nomi-
nation process for the post of party president if
Rajnath Singh fnally agrees to join the govern-
ment, sources added.
It is, however, also true that despite the RSSs
stated position, BJP leaders who are also
ministerial hopefuls are making a beeline to
Jhandewalan, the RSS headquarters. The fact
that senior leaders like Nitin Gadkari, Sushma
Swaraj, Arun Jaitley and Amit Shah have been
seen there is only fuelling suspicions that the
RSS may try to force its preferences or recom-
mend its favourites to the new PM.
While a number of BJP leaders believe that
Modi, like he had done in Gujarat, will not allow
the RSS or any of its affliates to dictate terms to
him on issues of governance, some others raise
doubts over whether he will be able to do this,
given the support he received from the organi-
sation in general elections and the overt exten-
sion of patronage to party leaders by senior RSS
functionaries Suresh Soni and Dattatreya Hosa-
bale.
They are RSS point persons who act as a link
between the Sangh and the BJP. Soni, in partic-
ular had played a pivotal role in Modis anoint-
ment as prime ministerial nominee despite
opposition from LK Advani.
Sources said Rajnath has been convinced by the
RSS and his close supporters that he should join
the government. Firstpost had earlier reported
that Rajnath is tipped to get home ministry and
is likely to be number two in the government.
Defence is the other option.
Rajnaths entry into the Cabinet should have
meant the return of Nitin Gadkari as party
president but Gadkari has made his preferences
clear join the government and take care of one
key economic or infrastructure ministry rather
than taking care of the organisation. The soft-
spoken and mild mannered JP Nadda could
therefore see a surprise elevation to party presi-
dent.
Arun Jaitley is a sure entrant into the cabinet,
either as fnance or external affairs minister.
With Rajnath and Jaitley in two of the big four
ministries in the north and south bloc, there is
great speculation about who will be given con-
trol of the other two.
Modis keenness to make an impact through
the Railways has generated lot of curiosity in
the BJP circles as to who would be entrusted
with this key portfolio. A reliable party source
confrmed that there has been some support for
time tested technocrat E Shreedharan.
The idea behind his nomination was two fold,
frst was his proven track record and vision for
the Railways and second, the fact that he is from
Kerala. But given his age and current state of
health Shreedharan has expressed a disinclina-
tion to take up a post as active as railway min-
ister but he is not averse to heading an advisory
panel or something of that sort in the railways.
In his three-day stay at New Delhis Gujarat
Bhawan, Modi met only a handful of BJP lead-
ers, either his close confdantes like Jaitley,
Gadkari and Amit Shah or colleagues like
Sushma Swaraj with whom he had to meet
to ascertain their views. He chose to spend a
greater portion of his time meeting with experts
and trusted retired bureaucrats, even taking a
briefng from the home secretary and sending
guidelines to the Cabinet secretary about what
he would expect in his frst briefng with the
secretaries of union government.
In his interactions with the leaders who met
him these days, he has not revealed his cards.
He has only listened to them. His control over
his emotions has often been baffing to those
who expected to get a clear response from him.
While his Cabinet will have the usual balance of
caste, community and region, the biggest and
most curious questions still have no answers
will Sushma Swaraj will be one of the Big Four
ministers? What will be the role of two of the
senior-most leaders in the BJP, LK Advani and
Murli Manohar Joshi? Who will get the HRD
Ministry? Who will get the Railways?
Questions that only Modi has the answer to and
at the moment, like a veteran Poker player, he is
keeping his cards close to his chest.
Sneak peek at Modis cabinet:
Jaitley as FM, Rajnath for home
Sanjay Singh May 19, 2014
M
oments after BJP's parliamentary
meet was concluded, Narendra Modi
urged Rajnath Singh to accompany
him to Varanasi. The BJP President had other
work lined up in the day. Nevertheless, he can-
celled all plans and decided to go with Modi.
More than a symbolic gesture - that of having
his party's president by his side while he per-
forms the widely-watched Ganga aarti - Modi
and Rajnath decided to do the Varanasi trip
together to discuss the look of the Cabinet, say
sources. Also, BJP's PM nominee was keen on
convincing Singh to take up a portfolio in the
cabinet - possibly home.
A BJP leader told Firstpost on the condition
of anonymity that the frst person to take oath
after Narendra Modi is sworn in as the Prime
Minister, will be Rajnath Singh. By doing that,
Modi will send out a strong message that Ra-
jnath Singh will come second, only after him, in
the power hierarchy.
The process that leads to Modi assuming offce
as the country's Prime Minister will be set in
motion on Tuesday. The 285 BJP MPs will then
elect Modi as their Prime Minister. A meeting
of allies who are part of the NDA, will be then
held. Following which, a group of NDA leaders
led by Narendra Modi, LK Advani and Rajnath
Singh will meet President Pranab Mukherjee
and stake claim on the new government.
After a long time, Modi is trying to turn another
political philosophy into a reality - the idea that
forming the council of ministers is only the
Prime Minister's prerogative.
Sources say that Modi has been consulting his
confdantes Rajnath Singh, Arun Jaitley and Ni-
tin Gadkari to decide on his cabinet, but no one
knows for sure what he has in mind as of now.
Though there has been widespread speculations
about the RSS' involvement and the leaders of
the Hindutva outft have also made their pres-
ence felt, they might not have a great say in the
cabinet formation, if Modi's style of functioning
is anything to go by.
On the other hand, Arun Jaitley defeat in the
polls will not affect his prospects within the
BJP. Rajnath Singh has offcially stated that the
party will make the most of his expertise. Given
that he is still a Rajya Sabha MP, he might still
be a part of Modi's cabinet. Unless something
completely unforeseen happens, Jaitley is all set
to be the next Finance Minister of India.
Sources in the BJP have said that Sushma
Swaraj wants to head the external affairs min-
istry. The foreign ministry is one of the most
signifcant ministries of the country and is espe-
cially of great importance to Modi, given his his-
tory of discord with the West. The external af-
fairs minister also become a part of the Cabinet
Committee on Security (CCS). However, given
Swaraj's conficted relationship with Modi, it is
not clear what role she would get to play in the
government, her expertise notwithstanding.
Right before the results were declared, Swaraj
had reportedly told Singh and Gadkari that she
doesn't wish to be a part of a Modi government
- that might go against her now. Given that the
massive mandate BJP has clinched is being
largely attributed to Modi, there's little room
for negotiations by others. A BJP leader said
that Modi's critics will have to fall in line or stay
out of his way - and this was made clear in the
Parliamentary Board meet attended by all top
BJP leaders.
Another notable face in the government could
be SS Ahluwalia, who won from Darjeeling,
West Bengal. He is not only the only Sikh MP
in the party, he also represents the party in
West Bengal, a state where the BJP doesn't have
much clout yet. The other BJP MP from West
Bengal is singer Babul Supriyo.
Shahnawaz Hussain, who was surely sup-
posed to be a part of the cabinet, lost from the
Bhagalpure parliamentary constituency. That
leaves Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, a Rajya Sabha
MP as the only Muslim face of the BJP in both
Houses of Parliament.
While Hussain's supporters are rallying behind
their leader and have demanded he be included
into the Cabinet and later be inducted in the
Rajya Sabha, that might not happen. A party
leader said since Modi was already making an
exception in the case of Arun Jaitley, he was
in no position to make a similar exception for
anyone else.
This might be the lowest the Gandhi family has
ever fallen in politics, their BJP counterpart is
set for better days ahead. While Varun Gandhi
will remain as general secretary, Maneka Gan-
dhi would be inducted in the Cabinet, sources
said. Ravi Shankar Prasad will surely have a key
portfolio on his shoulders.
UP and Bihar is set to witness a strong repre-
sentation in the Cabinet After all, those are the
states that literally handed the polls over to the
BJP.
New PM, Old Fears
The 69% issue: Will Modi stand
for those who didnt vote him?
Sandip Roy May 20, 2014
I
t is an indisputable fact that Narendra
Modi has led the BJP to a clear majority on
its own in the Lok Sabha.
It is equally an indisputable fact that at 31
percent of the vote the BJP has the lowest vote
share of any party to win a single party major-
ity in the same Lok Sabha. (To compare the
BJP number in 2014 to the Congress in 2009
is an apples and oranges comparison because
the Congress did not win a majority on its own
then).
But to insinuate that because of the latter, the
former is somehow suspect or even illegitimate
is mischievous, delusional and ultimately un-
democratic.
While vote share might be of interest to pse-
phologists and strategists, for the purposes of
forming a government its the number of seats
that counts. Thats the way the game has been
set up and no one can change the rules of the
game at this stage just because they are unhap-
py with the results. And the BJP will rightfully
occupy 282 seats in the 16th Lok Sabha thats
52 percent of the Lok Sabha, not 31 percent.
Those who want to take solace in that 69 per-
cent who did not vote for the BJP, or the 61.5
percent who did not vote the NDA, can do so
but those numbers are in the end crumbs of
very cold comfort.
If the 69 percent is important its not because it
can be used to question the legitimacy of Modis
victory but because it signals the work he has to
do given that his supporters have been claim-
ing a mandate in a way a Manmohan Singh was
never able to.
If the BJP wants to downplay the importance of
its national vote percentage it cannot simultane-
ously play up the tripling of its vote share in a
state like West Bengal even though it only won a
couple of seats there. Likewise Amit Shah is too
shrewd a strategist to assume that Mayawati is
irrelevant in UP politics because her BSP drew a
blank in terms of seats. It still got 20 percent of
the vote, something the BJP would be foolish to
ignore when time comes for Assembly elections
there.
Of course Modi does not have to be accommo-
dating if he does not want to. (T)his this was
not a mandate for consensus but for audacity
writes Swapan Dasgupta urging Modi to not
yield to the merchants of caution. His party
has a comfortable majority, he has a free hand
and he can rule as he wishes, serving the inter-
ests of the 31 percent who elected him. He can
start building a Ram Mandir tomorrow and
announce a Uniform Civil Code the day after
and the 69 percent can do little except weep into
their op-eds and blogs.
Yes, he can. But what good does it do him?
After Barack Obama won the US presidential
election in 2004, a bitter and acrimonious elec-
tion where his race had become a factor, Obama
rejoiced in the historic victory, much as Modi
did in Vadodara, but Obama also reached out to
those who did not vote for him.
"And to those Americans whose support I have
yet to earn, I may not have won your vote to-
night, but I hear your voices. I need your help.
And I will be your president, too."
Many in that 69 percent were straining to hear
echoes of that in Modis frst speech after win-
ning as well. Modi gave some indication of that
when he said I want to tell my fellow Indians
that in letter and spirit I will take all Indians
with me.
Obama tried, not always successfully, to live
up to his promise appointing Republicans to
his administration, trying to build a consensus
around issues like health care reform.
The 69 percent question for Modi will be how
he chooses to walk his talk. Modi wants to put
India frst. But as Ramakrishna, the mentor of
his favourite icon Vivekananda put it jata mat
tata path. (there are many ways to God). One
India cannot be the same thing as homogeneous
India.
While the fnal vote breakdown numbers are
still trickling in, Modi and his advisors must
already have a good inkling about who makes
up that 69 percent. Muslims are the group who
have gotten the most attention. The fnal data
might give the BJP some good news there. India
Today notes that the BJP won big in many seats
with high number of Muslim voters Lucknow,
Gauhati, Chandni Chowk for example. It points
out that of the 102 constituencies where at least
one in fve voters is a Muslim, the BJP won 47
seats. In 2009 it had won 24 of those seats.
If a signifcant number of Muslim voters, tired
of being taken for granted by Congress and SP
have in fact given the BJP the beneft of the
doubt, Modi needs to reciprocate that gesture
and build on it. While no one should begrudge
him his Ganga arati, and he can continue to
refuse to wear a skull cap as a matter of princi-
ple, Modi will have to understand that he is not
diminished by a visit to a dargah. That can be
a sign of respect rather than a token gesture of
appeasement.
Meghna Patel might gush that hes like that
single uncle you fancy who occasionally comes
over for meals but pre-poll studies have shown
that the BJP went into these elections with a
gender gap despite the best efforts of the likes of
the all-female NaMo Bharathi group.
Rajeswari Deshpande of the University of Pune
analysed NES fgures from 1996 to 2009 to
conclude that Among those who favoured Modi
as prime minister, 62 percent were men and
38 percent were women. Despite the Pramod
Muthalik volte face by the BJP bosses, women
who dont want any political party to police
what they wear, when they leave the house,
and where they drink, or whether they drink at
all, view the BJP and its chhote bhaiyyas with
suspicion. Even after the BJP kicked him out,
Muthalik reiterated his steadfast support for
Modi and said All I wanted was to see the BJP
becoming a major force in the state.
While Modi has been more successful than
any other BJP leader in giving his party a pan-
Indian national footprint, the south and the east
still remain the most unconvinced about his
party. The road to Delhi might have been paved
through Uttar Pradesh but now it will be for
Modi to demonstrate that it does not look like
the country is being governed by Uttar Pradesh
and the Hindi heartland. While the BJPs vote
share went up in every state including the
southern and eastern ones, Adam Ziegfeld
writes in the Washington Post that The BJP
remains relatively uncompetitive across a large
swathe of southern and eastern India.
And lets not forget that the much derided Sujan
Singh Park liberal worried about freedom of ex-
pression and the gay Indian disappointed with
the BJPs stance on Section 377 are also part
and parcel of this diverse India that Modi will
have to lead. Modi supporters might dismiss
them as inconsequential whiners but the rights
to privacy and the right to dissent are not incon-
sequential for the health and well-being of any
democratic society.
Technically speaking Modi can ignore all these
groups. The election results of 2014 have clearly
given Modi the right to the bully pulpit. That
does not mean the country has given him carte
blanche to be the bully. The 69 percent fgure
should not be bandied to question Modis right
to be the next Prime Minister of India. But it
should be a reminder to him that all of India is
not on the same page as he is after an election
that was presented as a referendum on him.
If Modi wants to claim a mandate, he should
include that 69 percent in his calculations. Oth-
erwise he could just claim victory and formulate
policy on behalf of the 31 percent who voted for
him. Vote share or no vote share, Modi has the
keys the kingdom. Its his choice what he does
with it whether he decides to be the prime
minister of India or the commander-in-chief of
the 31 percent.
Why Gopal Gandhis open letter to
Modi is wrong-headed and odious
R Jagannathan May 19, 2014
I
am appalled at the odious open letter writ-
ten by Gopalkrishna Gandhi in The Hindu
today (19 May) to Narendra Modi, giving
him not only unsolicited advice, but effectively
telling him he does not have a mandate to gov-
ern. The best thing Modi can do is lie low and be
a genial and over-compromising non-achiever
who keeps detractors happy.
After beginning his letter saying he did not want
to see Modi as PM, Gopal Gandhi asserts star-
tlingly that while many millions are ecstatic
that you will become prime minister, many
more millions may, in fact, be disturbed, greatly
disturbed by it.
Now, how did Gandhi come to this conclusion
that many more millions may be disturbed by
a Modi prime ministership? From the fact that
the BJPs vote share is 31 percent. So Gandhi
glibly concludes that 69 per cent of the vot-
ers did not see you as their rakhvala. They also
disagreed on what, actually, constitutes our
desh.
Lets be clear. In a frst-past-the-post electoral
system and in a fractured society like ours,
mandates will be won on the basis of a minority
of votes. This is the case not only with Modis
mandate, but everybodys in recent decades
and it is true in the states as well.
But can a 31 percent vote be interpreted as a 69
percent rejection rate? This is bunkum. All it
means is that for the balance 69 percent, Modi
for local and other reasons may not have
been a frst choice. It does not imply any kind of
rejection unless we are talking only about the
minorities, where, admittedly, Modi has some
work to do.
The only way to get a minimum 50 percent
mandate is to have a French style system of hav-
ing one or more eliminating rounds before the
fnal vote. This would knock out the parties with
the lowest shares in progressive stages leaving
only the two fnalists seeking 50-percent plus
and victory. The other way is to have a two-
party system, or a German-style proportional
representation system where parties getting less
than 5 percent are knocked out. In this elec-
tion, a German-style system of proportional
representation would have left only the BJP and
Congress as worthy of parliamentary represen-
tation. No other party touched 5 percent at the
national level.
But taking the Gopal Gandhi logic of 69 per-
cent rejecting Modi to its logical conclusion, it
would still mean that Modi was the politician
India objected to the least. The Congress, with
19.3 percent of the vote, was rejected by over 80
percent of the electorate, the BSP by 96 percent
of the electorate. If you consider the point that
everyone, from Mulayam Singh to Nitish Kumar
to Mamata Banerjee to J Jayalalithaa was also
a contender for the PMs job, one can well say
over 95 percent of India rejected them. Only 69
percent rejected Modi. (Actually, the fgure is
61.8 percent, since the NDA got 38.2 percent of
the vote, and all NDA parties accepted Modi as
their PM nominee).
You may object that it is not fair to pit par-
ties which are primarily present in some states
against national parties in terms of vote share,
but look at how they fared in their own states:
Mamata Banerjee won 39.3 percent of the vote
in West Bengal. Should we say 61 percent of
West Bengal rejected her?
In the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections of
2012, the Samajwadi Party got all of 29.13 per-
cent of the vote. Should we now ask them to re-
sign, since, by Gopal Gandhis logic, 71 percent
of the state rejected Akhilesh Yadav?
Clearly, Gopal Gandhi was wearing his preju-
dice on his sleeve rather than anything else
when he told Modi that 69 per cent of the vot-
ers did not see you as their rakhvala. There is
no basis to assert this.
Worse was his gratuitous advice to Modi on
what he needed to do to redeem himself in
the eyes of his detractors. The sum total of his
advice is: let the opposition parties decide key
posts that will come up for deliberation early in
a Modi administration.
To redeem the trust of those who have not
supported you, Gopal Gandhi advises Modi to
do the following: When you reconstitute the
Minorities Commission, ask the Opposition to
give you all the names and accept them with-
out change. And do the same for the panels on
Scheduled Castes and Tribes, and Linguistic
Minorities. And when it comes to choosing the
next Chief Information Commissioner, the next
CAG, CVC, go sportingly by the recommenda-
tion of the non-government members on the se-
lection committee, as long as it is not partisan.
You are strong and can afford such risks.
So if the opposition plants mischief in these
posts, Modi is supposed to just take it lying
down? Gopal Gandhi is essentially saying that
till he voluntarily rejects the powers he has been
conferred with, Modi will have no legitimacy.
Gandhi did not give this advice to any previous
government in Delhi only to Modi.
And why would Modi want to be such a door-
mat? Because, says Gandhi, many of the things
he has stood for strikes fear, not trust. I dont
think anybody will disagree with Gandhis idea
that the fears of minorities need to be ad-
dressed, and addressed fairly soon, but surely
he is going overboard when he thinks that the
idea of a uniform civil code is old and hack-
neyed. It is one thing to address this issue sen-
sitively, quite another to think this essentially
egalitarian idea is hackneyed.
The only thing old and hackneyed is the idea
that Modi is about to unleash a wave of Hin-
dutva where Trishul-wielding militants will be
Talibanising and terrorising India. Unfortu-
nately, this is an idea that can be dispelled only
over the tenure of Modis prime ministership.
The proof of the pudding will be in the eating.
Meanwhile, anyone, including Gopal Gandhi,
is free to continue with his scare-mongering
tactics.
(You can read the full Gopalkrishna Gandhi
article here)
Threatening Ananthamurthy:
Will Modi-led BJP say no to right wing thugs?
Sandip Roy May 22, 2014
I
n what he now admits was a moment of
overreaction, Kannada writer UR Anantha-
murthy said hed leave India if Narendra
Modi was elected prime minister.
Now Modi is going to be the prime minister,
and Ananthamurthy is still very much here
ironically, under the protection of the Indian
police.
The protection has been given because Anan-
thamurthy has said he has received threatening
phone calls from unknown persons. A group
called the NaMo Brigade has also sent him a
one-way travel itinerary to Karachi.
The itinerary is a perfectly acceptable tongue-
in-cheek riposte to Ananthamurthys emotional
outburst. The same freedom of expression that
covers his sentiments covers that reaction from
the NaMo Brigade.
Threats however are a different matter. And
that distinction seemed to escape the BJPs
Seshadri Chari when he appeared on CNN-IBN
with Sagarika Ghose along with Mr Anantha-
murthy as well as Javed Anand and Shabana
Azmi.
Mr Chari, had he wanted, could have seized the
moral higher ground and set the tone. He could
have said that the BJP vehemently opposes Mr.
Ananthamurthys views and thinks of them as
insulting and retrograde. But it just as strongly
opposes any threats to him for his dissenting
views. He could have categorically disassoci-
ated his party from the threatening callers who
are after all unknown miscreants anyway and
condemned them. End of story.
But instead Mr Chari said "it takes two hands
to clap," suggesting that somehow Mr Anantha-
murthy brought this on himself. He asked if Mr
Ananthamurthy himself was not being intoler-
ant when making such statements about Indias
prime minister elect.
Mr Chari neatly elided over the fact that there is
a huge difference between dissent and intoler-
ance. Mr. Ananthamurthy had said he would
leave India an action which threatened no vio-
lence to any other person. That is qualitatively
different from those who call and try to intimi-
date him. Freedom of expression can never be
the same as the freedom to threaten.
Yet that is exactly what most political parties in
India routinely do. Mamata Banerjees govern-
ment arrested a man for forwarding a cartoon
she didnt funny and threw a farmer in jail for
questioning her about fertilizer prices. Two
Mumbai girls were arrested for questioning on
Facebook the city's shutdown after Bal Thack-
eray's death. Kapil Sibal tried to formulate rules
to purge the Internet of offending content
and force Google and Facebook to pre-screen
content. At that time Arun Jaitley fought back
fercely.
The days of censorship, of withholding in-
formation is all over, he said. I believe if the
Internet had been in existence, the Emergency
of 1975 would have been a big fasco.
It is far easier to be a brave votary for freedom
of expression from the benches of the opposi-
tion. But the real test is in government when
one holds the levers of power. Now Mr Jaitley
should walk his talk and draw the clearest,
brightest line possible.
The Ananthamurthy case is probably much ado
about nothing. No one is really going to frog-
march the Jnanpith winner to the Wagah bor-
der. And this incident is hardly an indicator that
all the liberal doom and gloom scenarios are
coming to pass and dissent in India has had its
mouth taped shut by Modis mandate. Its not
like Amit Shah's minions are making calls to Mr
Ananthamurthy.
But it is an opportunity for the new BJP govern-
ment to set a tone, to establish that it is a differ-
ent kind of government. It is very easy to be a
champion of freedom of speech and expression
when you agree with whats being said. The acid
test for freedom of expression comes when you
disagree strongly with what is being said and yet
are steadfast in defending the speakers right to
say it.
The same freedom of expression that protects
a Dr. Subramanian Swamy when he calls Sonia
Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi Vishkanya and Bud-
dhu publicly, also protects Mr Ananthamurthy
when he voices his opposition to Narendra
Modi. No one should threaten Dr Swamy with
any dire consequences for disrespecting the
demi-gods of the Congress pantheon. The same
holds true for Mr Ananthamurthy.
The Ananthamurthy story should not even
have gathered this much steam had not the
BJPs foot soldiers overreacted to Mr Anantha-
murthys overreaction. The American director
Robert Altman said hed leave the US and move
to Paris if George W Bush was elected presi-
dent. After Bush was elected Altman joked he
had meant Paris, Texas. He continued with his
movie career and died peacefully in West Hol-
lywood at the age of 81 in 2006. He didnt need
police protection and didnt complain of intimi-
dating phone calls.
In the end, a robust democracy understands
that neither Altman nor Ananthamurthys prot-
estations have any real impact on anything. But
the response to them is a measure of the ma-
turity of a democracy and its ability to absorb
dissent.
Freedom of speech is routinely trumped in
India by the freedom to get offended. But John
Stuart Mills spelled it out pretty clearly back in
the day when he wrote there should be abso-
lute freedom of opinion and sentiment unless
there is a threat of harm to others. Thats
where the difference between a threatening
phone call and a one-way travel itinerary comes
in. As Mills said:
"If all mankind minus one were of one opin-
ion, and only one person were of the contrary
opinion, mankind would be no more justifed in
silencing that one person than he, if he had the
power, would be justifed in silencing mankind."
Its a lesson our political parties are loath to
absorb. The BJP, already strongly secure in its
numbers, actually has a golden opportunity to
be different and demonstrate that it is going to
a staunch defender of values other parties pay
lip service to. Mr Chari would have done well to
actually take his cues from Sandalwood actor
and fellow BJP member Malavika Avinash on
Mr Ananthamurthy.
She tweeted He has an opinion now that I hope
will change by 2019 or earlier but until then,
may I request all my friends to give-up making
digs at the Jnanapitha awardee, URA. C'mon
guys, let's show some grace!"
A little grace, on all sides, would be nice. But
real progress for the BJP requires distancing
itself from the ugly bullying of the many fringe
groups who threaten and intimidate dissenters
in its name. It would also give Modi himself an
opportunity to lay to rest the alarmist concerns
about his authoritarian style of governance. But
what we got instead was the same old wink-
and-nudge endorsement of rightwing thuggery,
ducking the need to take a moral stance by
resorting to a false equivalence between URA's
comment and outright threats.
As Hartosh Singh Bal points out in Caravan
after Modis sweeping victory There is no
shortage of cheerleaders for this verdict, but for
democracy to function, the sceptics have to fnd
their voice. We will all have to recognise that
no mandate is a mandate to silence opposition.
Neither is this mandate reason to silence one-
self.
Early Forays Into Foreign Policy
Why Modis invite to Sharif
is no olive branch to Pakistan
Rajeev Sharma May 22, 2014
P
rime Minister-designate Narendra Mo-
dis move to invite SAARC leaders for
his 26 May swearing in ceremony was
discussed with President Pranab Mukherjee
at their meeting on Tuesday and the President
promptly approved of it.
This conveys quite a lotas among other SAARC
heads of governments the Indian invitation was
sent to Pakistan as well. This is a clever move
by Modi and shows that he has not only hit the
ground running in matters related to foreign
policy but also that he is capable of out-of-the-
box thinking.
Why? Because this is the frst time ever when
an Indian PM-designate has sent such invites to
the leadership of Indias neighbours. Manmo-
han Singh never sent such invites to the neigh-
bours for his installation ceremonies in 2004
and 2009.
That was largely because Manmohan Singh ran
a coalition government both times and was tied
down to coalition politics compulsions. He must
not have been unaware of the domestic back-
lash, particularly from the Shiv Sena which does
not even favour a cricket match between India
and Pakistan on Indian soil.
The Shiv Sena is the largest ally of the Modi-led
NDA with as many as 18 Lok Sabha seats (a gain
of seven seats from the 2009 tally). This con-
notes only one thing. Manmohan Singh was too
weak and too bogged down with domestic poli-
tics fallouts even when the Shiv Sena was not so
big in numerical strength in the Lok Sabha.
But now despite the fact that the Shiv Sena has
gained in numerical stature in the Lok Sabha,
Modi has cared two hoots about it is simply be-
cause that he is leading a majority government
where pre-poll allies like the Shiv Sena have no
option but to fall in line and agree to whatever
Indias new strongman determines.
This is the new political order in India to which
all neighbours, including Pakistan, must recon-
cile.
But the chances are that almost all neighbours
would reconcile to this new political order in
India and recalibrate their India-specifc strate-
gies accordingly but Pakistan wont.
Perhaps even Bangladesh wont even though
it is ruled by Indias tried, tested and trusted
friend Sheikh Hasina. That is because of the
tough stance taken by Modi during his cam-
paign against illegal migrants in India from
Bangladesh, a statement that sent Hasina into
a huddle with her inner coterie to decide her
countrys future policies with a Modi-led India.
But that is different matter and will be dis-
cussed later in a Bangladesh-specifc write-up.
The focus of Modis unprecedented diplomatic
outreach to SAARC is defnitely Pakistan.
It will be interesting to see how Pakistan re-
sponds to the invitation sent by Foreign Secre-
tary Sujatha Singh at the behest of Modi.
Will Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif at-
tend Modis installation on 26 May? It is hard to
tell. But it appears highly unlikely given the fact
that India-Pakistan bilateral relations are gov-
erned by the unwritten, unspoken code of reci-
procity. Sharif had invited Indian leadership for
his installation one year ago but India chose to
send its High Commissioner in Pakistan, Sharat
Sabharwal, to attend the event which was de-
scribed by the then External Affairs Minister
Salman Khurshid as a local event.
Everything will depend on the Pakistan Armys
eventual decision on the Indian invitation. The
fnal call on the Indian invite will be made not
by Nawaj Sharif but by the other Sharif -- Paki-
stans army chief General Raheel Sharif.
General Sharif may get an idea of doing a Pervez
Musharraf on India when the then Pakistani
military ruler had come to India for the infa-
mous Agra Summit in July 2001. Then also a
BJP-led government was at the helms in New
Delhi. If that were to happen, Modi will fnd
himself up against core foreign policy issues on
Day One of his tenure as PM.
So far only three SAARC leaders from Afghani-
stan, Sri Lanka and Bhutan have confrmed
their participation in Modis swearing in cer-
emony on 26 May.
Whether Pakistan sends its Prime Minister or
President to Modis installation or not, Modi
has already played his diplomatic cards rather
deftly. Whatever the Modi move may be inter-
preted as, it cannot be construed as extending
an olive branch to Pakistan. It is just a courtesy;
nothing more, nothing less.
This move alone should not be seen as Modi
signaling his desire to normalise relations with
Pakistan. Diplomacy does not function in such a
zero sum manner.
For India, the good old policy towards Pakistan
has been this: you shut down your terror export
business and we will talk with you. The UPA
government followed this policy all through.
There are no indications that Modi will depart
from this policy.
But there is one difference this time. Modi has
conveyed to Pakistan that he can do what was
deemed unthinkable during the UPA tenure. If
he can take a strong step for peace, he can take
other steps in other scenarios too.
And for sure, Modi wont have to look to other
parties, allies or rivals, for deciding his govern-
ments Pakistan policy.
The writer is a Firstpost columnist, a strategic
analyst and author of several Pakistan-centric
books who tweets @Kishkindha.
A hawk or a moderate? Modis
National Security Adviser must know Pak
R K Raghavan May 22, 2014
I
am writing within minutes of the offcial
announcement that the incoming Prime
Minister desires to have an international
presence at his swearing-in ceremony on the
26th. What better way to begin ones innings as
Indias new CEO! All his overworked and fa-
tigued detractors have been bowled over by this
remarkable piece of diplomacy. Some have been
effusive, and the others somewhat economical
in their praise. Nevertheless an auspicious be-
ginning has been made. But however much the
Prime Minister is demonstrative and transpar-
ent, some solid backstage work has to be done,
and that has to come from the bureaucracy led
by the National Security Adviser (NSA).
In all probability, the incumbent Shivshankar
Menon will have to give way for another person
of the new governments choice. This is a pity
because Menon is a devoted and self-effacing
professional who played a competent role
without being famboyant. I am sure many in
government, especially in the MEA and Home
Ministry, found him agreeable and never over-
bearing. Of course, who knows whether he will
be replaced at all? Given Modis penchant for
springing surprises, he may still want to retain
Menon.
Reports however point to a new kid on the
block. Ajit Doval, a former Director, Intelligence
Bureau, is being mentioned in dispatches as one
who could succeed Menon. Doval has already
had a publicized meeting with Modi where he
was said to have briefed him.
Doval and I were colleagues at the IB. I have
seen him work doggedly and achieve remark-
able results. He is rated high in operations, and
is therefore a right choice in dealing with our
neighbours, especially Pakistan. His knowledge
of the ISI and its bellicose stance towards us is
of particular relevance to the current situation.
We expect the new Prime Minister to be polite
and courteous to friend and foe, but without
losing the verve to hit back when provoked. The
new NSA will have to be in sync with this diff-
cult style, and if my assessment of Doval is cor-
rect, he will ft the bill admirably. I know he has
also his own detractors in high places in the pre-
vious administration. Hence he had to lie low
for nearly a decade. He has bounced back with a
vengeance and determination to prove himself.
I see no reason why he should not succeed.
I have seen at least two previous NSAs closely
at work. They had contrasting styles. The late
Brajesh Mishra, who served Vajpayee admira-
bly well, was crisp and sharp. Without being
brusque he made it clear that he wanted you to
be with him for only just a couple of minutes
and not a minute longer, for transacting any
business. He knew when to assert himself and
when to withdraw. I still remember how at my
frst meeting with Atalji he was present only to
perform the niceties of introduction. Thereafter
he was conspicuously absent, leaving the two
of us all to ourselves. His self-assurance was
remarkable, possibly something traceable to
the confdence he enjoyed with Atalji. Mishra
wielded enormous clout on which he drew with-
out revealing any signs of arrogance or rancour.
This is why he continued to be respected even
years after ceased to be NSA.
When I describe MK Narayanan (MK) I have to
be necessarily subjective. He was my IB boss for
decades, and later a very good friend. He has
not forgiven me to this day for leaving the IB to
pursue higher studies in the US. He thought I
was DIB material.
Compared to Brajesh, MK was more plodding.
His knowledge of both theory and practice was
phenomenal. He was a visionary as well as a
practical man. He knew when to be theoretical
and when not to be. His success was his capac-
ity for hard work and an enormous interest in
meeting people and absorbing whatever they
conveyed. His long years in the IB and his close
association with Rajiv Gandhi gave him an elan
which nobody can surpass. He enjoyed being
important in a positive sense. If he can establish
rapport with a mercurial Chief Minister such as
Mamata, there is no one he cannot break bread
with. The ease with which he moved into in-
ternational arena from a mere domestic intel-
ligence specialist spoke volumes for his ability
to adapt. Of course, in all this, his acceptability
to the family accounted at least partially to his
great success and image.
Modis NSA will have to contend with a peoples
PM, and not one who was anointed by a coterie.
Modi may be on unfamiliar territory as far as
foreign policy was concerned. He has however
shown himself to be a quick learner. The NSA
will have to take care of a little mentoring in the
area. A competent Home Minister should tend
the domestic situation and leave enough time
for Modi to concentrate on an equally craggy
terrain of Pakistan and China. Here Dovals
amazing knowledge of Pakistan will greatly
help.
There is no place in the PMO for histrionics or
a trigger-happy response. The NSA cannot be a
hawk. He should be a moderator and shock ab-
sorber rather than an Army Commander itching
for action.
Above all, the NSA should take care of the
niceties of etiquette in dealing with the mighty
in the Establishment, both ministers and civil
servants. The latter should look upon the NSA
as a facilitator rather than a power centre. The
temptation to interfere in the routine of security
agencies is enormous. If the NSA doesnt keep
off from the politics that is in-built here, he will
get distracted and bring a bad name not only to
himself but to the whole PMO itself. Above all,
if he makes the grade, Doval can draw on his
knowledge of how both Mishra and MK worked.
Perhaps the two past NSAs complemented each
other, and there is a lot to learn from their suc-
cesses and failures.
(The writer is a former CBI Director.)
Can Modi diplomacy improve
ties in Indias western frontier?
FP Staff May 21, 2014
B
JP prime minister-elect Narendra Modi
already indicated a paradigm shift in
India's foreign policy as he invited Saarc
leaders including Pakistan Prime Minister Na-
waz Sharif to attend his swearing-in ceremony
in New Delhi on 26 May. The move came as a
surprise and got due appreciation from politi-
cians in Jammu and Kashmir and pundits in
foreign affairs.
"Modi wants to signal that India wants to im-
prove ties with its neighbouring countries. Modi
doesn't want to make a Pakistan-centric foreign
policy. Moreover, we cannot invite other Saarc
(South Asian Association for Regional Coopera-
tion) leaders and not invite Pakistan. We are
not against the business community of Pakistan
for instance but with the establishment that
paints India as enemy number one," BJP leader
Seshadri Chari told CNN-IBN during a panel
discussion.
Former Indian envoy to Pakistan G Parthasar-
athy considered the move as a diplomatically
prudent one.
"Modi is celebrating his victory in the largest
democracy of the world with his neighbours.
This is a message to the world, not just Paki-
stan," he said.
However, there are doubts that Prime Minister
Sharif will be able to attend the ceremony and
would be represented by President Mamnoon
Hussain instead.
"There is a lot of civil-military tension brew-
ing in Pakistan. Many people are watching
what Sharif will do. Before coming to power,
Sharif promised to lot on good ties with India,
increased trade opportunity and so on. On the
ground the situation is quite different," said
senior journalist from Pakistan Wajahat S Khan
who joined the debate via Skype.
The former Indian envoy to Pakistan also aired
similar views.
"There are serious problems that Nawaz Sharif
is having with Pakistan Army Chief General
Raheel Sharif. He already faced coup twice as
prime minister before. Once in 1993 from then
General Abdul Waheed Kakar and in 1999 from
General Pervez Musharraf. Whatever that may
be vis-a-vis relationship with Pakistan Modi
cannot leave the (Atal Bihari) Vajpayee legacy,"
Parthasarathy said.
The baggage from the past is however still refus-
ing to leave Modi completely, particularly the
scars of the Godhra riots of 2002.
"There are a lot of Pakistanis who came to know
about Modi fortunately or unfortunately be-
cause of the Gujarat massacre. His career been
a subject of interest after that. Modi defnitely
worries Pakistan," said Khan.
The shadow of the Gujarat riots may also cast
some mistrust on the India-US relationship as
the Indian Prime Minister-elect still cannot get
an US visa as a regular citizen.
"Both sides will beneft by leaving the Gujarat
issue behind. Earlier the Congress party, the
Indo-American community in the US also
pushed for the visa restrictions on Modi. How-
ever, during the campaign this time Modi did
not focus on communal politics but focused on
development and good governance. Let the past
be in the past. The Obama administration was
also too slow in engaging with Modi. The US is
behind the curb as Britain did engage with Modi
in 2012 itself," said Lisa Curtis from The Herit-
age Foundation in Washington.
A known Modi-critic, professor Kamal Mitra
Chenoy of the Jawaharlal Nehru University,
however, appreciated the diplomatic acumen of
the Prime Minister-elect to start off. He did not
go after Modi for the 48 hour delay in respond-
ing to US President Barack Obama's congratula-
tory message.
"Modi is trying to re-calibrate this message
to shed his Gujarat image. India is a regional
power. The US cannot do without India. There
are still issues in the legal court that have to be
resolved. But in the the response to the Obama
a slow Twitter response is not a rebuff. He is
making a new government and is busy other
things after all," Chenoy said.
Parthasarathy felt that the US is adapting dif-
ferent yardsticks for different countries on the
issue of human rights when the 2002 riots are
taken into account.
"The US is playing a double standard game. Hu-
man rights violation in Pakistan, Libya, Iraq etc
exceeds far more than it was in Gujarat. Ameri-
can behaviour has been churlish. The day the
US ASmbassador to India meets Modi, the US
State Department says the visa ban still holds
on Modi. The warmth of relationship is seen in
the Twitter exchanges that Modi had with Japa-
nese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe," the cx-Indian
envoy to Pakistan said.
Strategic analyst Vidya Shankar Aiyar was of the
opinion that there was no point on holding on
to the past.
"Modi is not going to be worried with the bag-
gage of past years. He is trying to rise above his
party in that direction. He arrives in Parliament
like an irresistible force. He did the right thing
by taking 48 hours to reply to Obama," Aiyar
said.
The BJP spokesperson perhaps summed it up
aptly.
"There is still a trust defcit between the US
and Modi. But it is also a fact that the economic
development has shifted from the West to the
East," Chari said.
Modi invited SAARC leaders for
swearing-in to strengthen ties: BJP
PTi, May 21, 2014
N
ew Delhi: BJP today said that it was
Prime Minister-designate Narendra
Modi's desire to invite the heads of gov-
ernment of all SAARC countries to his swearing-
in, saying it is a frst step towards improving ties
with India's neighbours.
The party also said the installation of a new
government in the world's largest democracy
through peaceful transfer of power is also an oc-
casion to showcase the strength of democracy.
"This is a big occasion for India's democracy
that the country's elections have concluded
peacefully and the world's largest democracy
sees such a change. Such a peaceful change in
the world's largest democracy is an occasion
to showcase to the whole world the strength of
democracy," BJP leader Arun Jaitley said.
He said "it was Prime Minister-designate
himself who desired that all heads of states of
SAARC nations be invited."
Jaitley said "it is Modi government's intention
to maintain good ties with its neighbours and
this is the frst indication of that intention."
He said the decision to invite neighbours to the
swearing-in is also an indication that "we care
for them and want to maintain relations with
them."
Sources said Modi, after being appointed the
Prime Minister, has conveyed it to the Rashtra-
pati Bhawan and the External Affairs Ministry
his desire that all SAARC countries be invited to
his swearing in on 26 May.
For the frst time, SAARC Heads of State and
Government including Pakistan Prime Minister
Nawaz Sharif, Sri Lanka President President
Mahinda Rajapaksa and Bangladesh Premier
Sheikh Hasina have been invited to Modi's
swearing-in.
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