SOE 2010: 'Policy Perspectives' (English, Sinhala, Tamil) and 'Prospects'

SRI LANKA
State of the Economy

2010

Policy Perspectives & Prospects

Theme:
Post-conflict Economic
Development
Challenges

INSTITUTE OF POLICY STUDIES IN SRI LANKA

1
Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka: State of the Economy 2010
Policy Perspectives free download / e-version
1. Policy Perspectives
Sri Lanka made significant progress towards
long term peace and stability in 2009 with
the successful end to a 30 year armed
separatist conflict in the country. The
economic dividends, however, were slow to
materialize, held down not only by a severe
global economic downturn but also by the
distractions of Presidential and Parliamentary
elections. In the midst of such developments,
Sri Lanka's relatively low GDP growth of
3.5 per cent for 2009 went almost unnoticed.
The reasons were primarily two fold. First,
the adverse knock-on effects of the global
economic crisis on the Sri Lankan economy
were anticipated well in advance. And
secondly, any residual concerns about the
downturn were eclipsed by optimism of new
opportunities for growth that a 'post-conflict'
economy could generate in the medium
term.
Usage of the term 'post-conflict' implies
many things, including the many political
nuances it contains in relation to issues of
conflict resolution. At its simplest, however,
it can be taken to imply a phase of
reconciliation and reconstruction, with
intended political and development
objectives. In so far as post-conflict
development relates to the economic sphere,
the primary objective is to reduce the major
risk factors of conflict recurrence by
formulating economic policies that are
sensitive to issues of inequities among
groups. While there can be many
commonalities in the policies adopted by
conflict-affected countries towards this end,
there is no recommended "one-size-fits-all"
approach. Sri Lanka, like other conflict-
affected states, must fashion an approach
that is context-appropriate to its own
circumstances. Above all, it must be owned,
formulated and driven by national actors.
In this, the government had already taken
the lead in enunciating its development
objectives for the Northern and Eastern
Provinces under the 'Uthuru Wasanthaya'
(Northern Spring) and 'Nagenahira
Navodaya' (Eastern Re-awakening)
programmes, respectively. In turn, these were
included in its broader national programme
of activities spelt out in the 'Mahinda
Chinthana: Idiri Dekma' (Vision for the
Future) that served a dual purpose as the
government's election manifesto. The
intention is clearly to deliver rapid economic
development to the war ravaged North and
East (N&E), while focusing on bridging the
rural-urban divide in the rest of the country.
That the government's message resonated
with a vast majority of the voting public in
Sri Lanka was apparent from the
overwhelming mandate received at both the
Presidential and Parliamentary elections held
in January and April 2010, respectively.
Whilst it cannot be discounted that support
for the government stemmed in part from
its military successes in 2009, its economic
message - rapid infrastructure improvements
to rural Sri Lanka - has also become a decisive
factor to an important constituency of voters.
Thus, the electoral successes of the ruling
government in 2010 have guaranteed Sri Lanka
a degree of political and policy stability that
comes with a strengthened Executive, assured
of a healthy majority in Parliament. Indeed,
the elections have delivered the country an
opportunity to overcome what has been a
recurring constraint on successive
governments to carry out a sustained
2
development drive - i.e., fragile coalitions
that have often failed to hold together for
the full life time of an elected Parliament.
At the same time, however, the electoral
successes have also raised the stakes for the
government in the coming years. With the
ending of the military efforts, the attention
of the electorate will be focused almost
exclusively on reaping the economic benefits
of peace. As a consequence, the pressures
on the government to meet high and rising
expectations of economic progress and
durable peace in the country are that much
greater.
And expectations have been on the rise since
the defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil
Eelam (LTTE) by government forces in May
2009. The groundswell of optimism in
relation to Sri Lanka's medium term
economic prospects was immediate. The
country was quick to capture global
attention, not only as a prime destination
for tourism, but also as an emerging
economy tipped to record a sharp rebound
in performance from 2010. In this, Sri Lanka
appears well placed to achieve a targeted
growth rate of around 6.5-7.0 per cent in
2010, supported by a recovery in almost all
key sectors of the economy. While it is
understood that growth alone does not define
an economic recovery, broad based growth
is an initial critical component. It holds out
the possibility of generating employment
opportunities and improving the lives of the
people in the near term.
Early, robust economic growth that has an
immediate widespread impact will go some
way towards meeting the aspirations of a
conflict weary population. From a socio-
political perspective, it is critical that such
a recovery process should begin to
immediately redress imbalances in the
conflict-affected regions vis--vis the rest of
the country. Revival of agriculture and
tourism in these regions will help. But, more
will need to be done to position the N&E to
grow rapidly in the next few years. Indeed,
reactivating economic growth in a region that
is emerging from a prolonged conflict may
call for different approaches. For instance,
where conflict prevention is a priority -
needing a speedy response - it may be that
the benefits of some public expenditure
cannot always be subject to standard
investment appraisal techniques. In the
immediate short term, actions to develop
both physical infrastructure and regenerate
social capital - a rapid rebuilding of destroyed
homes, hospitals, schools, roads, etc. - can
make a timely contribution to achieving Sri
Lanka's long term socio-political objectives.
Many of these elements have already been
captured in the policy documents put
forward by the government. Indeed, many
more activities are in the process of being
implemented as evident by the sharp increase
in spending allocated to the N&E. But
beyond the immediate recovery efforts must
lie clear medium term policy goals that
anticipate the transition to long term post-
conflict economic development. In the
absence of a sound medium term
macroeconomic framework that underpins
a strategy of growth with stability, the
'phoenix' effect - whereby countries rebuild
and grow faster in the immediate post-
conflict years - may prove to be unsustainable
in the longer run.
The need for a credible macroeconomic
policy framework is very real as Sri Lanka
grappled with an expansion of its projected
budget deficit of 7 per cent of GDP for 2009
to a realized figure of 9.8 per cent of GDP
by year end. While it can be explained in
part by falling tax revenues in the midst of
an economic downturn, expenditure needs
- partly related to rehabilitation and
resettlement of internally displaced persons
(IDPs), etc. - were on the rise. Nonetheless,
such fiscal constraints are a reminder that
3
the challenges for macroeconomic
management over the next few years will be
highly complex. Macroeconomic policy will
be called on to support high growth - as
almost a precondition to minimizing conflict
risk - while ensuring that stability is not
compromised in the process. Clearly, this
will entail some trade-offs between growth
and stability. Indeed, it may even mean
tolerating moderate inflation and budget
deficits to support Sri Lanka's post-conflict
economic recovery process. What is
important is the recognition that such a path
will hold fewer risks if a medium term
macroeconomic framework is underpinned
by a clear and transformative process of
economic policy reforms.
The priority for fiscal policy is to release
financing for infrastructure investment and
reconstruction spending. This entails that a
mix of far reaching economic, institutional
and policy reforms accompany a re-
orientation of public finances. In the absence
of such reforms, Sri Lanka will falter in
putting its public finances in order - that is,
cutting back on recurrent spending to
support capital investment. Without such
flexibility, a heavy infrastructure-led
development drive will inevitably rely on
borrowed funds. This will not only lead to
an accumulation of the country's stock of
public debt, and associated risks for
macroeconomic stability, but will also mean
that Sri Lanka's development priorities do
not have the financing that is needed on a
predictable basis.
The absence of a broader programme of
economic reforms will have another
downside effect. Undoubtedly, investing in
a critical mass of infrastructure projects will
facilitate a growth take-off. Infrastructure
spending creates not only public assets but
pushes money into the economy with all its
multiplier effects. However, for such a
growth process to be sustainable beyond the
medium term, overall productivity in the
economy has to improve. Lower costs that
come with improved infrastructure - in
transport, energy, communication - can help
firms to be more competitive. But, raising
the overall productivity in the economy also
calls for improvements in the allocation of
factors of production. In the absence of such
improvements via economic reforms, Sri
Lanka's growth will be sub-optimal, and will
be subject to increasing volatility as the
economy comes up against supply-side
rigidities. The concern is that in the absence
of a broader reform effort, improved
infrastructure delivery will only take the
country so far and no further.
The strong political mandate received by the
government suggests that Sri Lanka has a very
real opportunity for pushing through some
of these reforms. Restructuring of state-
owned enterprises to ease the financial
burden on the Treasury, labour market
regulatory reforms to create an attractive
environment for employment generation, and
education sector reforms to improve the
quality, relevance and delivery of education
to meet the needs of a modernizing
economy are some areas that need attention.
There are also more difficult and politically
complex areas for reform that touch on
improving the efficiency and productivity of
Sri Lanka's rural agrarian economy. The
government will weigh its options and
decide what is feasible. That should not,
however, negate adopting a sequential
approach to reforms, picking on what is more
easily doable and building on the reform
process in the medium term.
What Sri Lanka should avoid is to be lulled
into a sense of complacency. A post-conflict
economic recovery phase driven by
accelerated infrastructure spending can see
the country achieving an annual average
growth rate in excess of 7 per cent in the
next few years. Already, the country has re-
4
bounded to post a GDP growth rate of 7.1
per cent in the first quarter of 2010. Such
promising news on the growth front can also
drown out calls for reforms. But, if the
country is to truly lay the most viable
platform on which to base long term growth,
complementing an infrastructure
development thrust with a broad reform effort
will provide the most sustainable outcome.
A prudent fiscal policy framework will go a
long way towards ensuring that a growth
rebound is accompanied by macroeconomic
stability. Without major attempts to
rationalize recurrent spending, some degree
of fiscal stability can be achieved by focusing
on the revenue side. Indeed, as the Sri Lankan
economy recovers from its current downturn,
revenue generation can be expected to be
positive. In addition, the government has
already taken steps by appointing a
Presidential Taxation Commission to
rationalize the taxation structure and improve
tax administration with a view to raising
revenue by two per cent of GDP by 2011
from current levels. It is important that an
appropriate mix of taxation measures is
adopted. Raising taxes can harm growth.
Those that are least likely to harm growth
are taxes on consumption or on immobile
assets such as property. However, there are
limits to how much consumption taxes can
be raised in view of their immediate and
regressive impact on the cost of living.
While improved revenue generation may
help to bridge fiscal deficits, it will only be
partial given the above factors. The
government can still make the case for a
development strategy that relies on raising
public capital investment in the economy
primarily through sovereign debt. There is
little doubt that a public investment-led
infrastructure drive - based on economic
needs - can make a significant contribution
towards a growth take-off for Sri Lanka.
Arguably, such a strategy can also be justified
on the grounds that higher growth reduces
the burden of public debt, and may make it
easier to rationalize public finances by
bringing in more tax revenue. In principle,
governments that borrow and spend
prudently can reap these benefits. But it is
also the case that in practice, management
of public debt has been at the centre of
macroeconomic instability and crises for
many developing countries.
There are other downside risks. A coherent
post-conflict economic recovery strategy will
solicit the return of private investment. This
means government borrowing cannot be
allowed to crowd out private investment,
which could also lower future growth. To
mitigate the crowding out effect, countries
can resort to sourcing a larger chunk of
financing needs through foreign borrowing.
The dangers of greater sovereign foreign debt
exposure are well known. Foreign debt
brings with it additional exchange rate risk
and vulnerability to downside shocks of
external economic conditions.
The greater the dependence on short term
foreign capital, the greater the risks of
macroeconomic volatility. In 2009, Sri Lanka
depended heavily on foreign investment in
Treasury bills and bonds to bridge its fiscal
financing gap. The potential for such capital
to take 'flight' at the first signs of investor
risk are well known. As the country's ratio
of foreign debt service to exports grows -
doubling from 7.1 per cent to 14.6 per cent
between 2006 and 2009 - the safest course
is to ensure that earnings from exports keep
pace, to enable external debt service
obligations to be held at comfortable levels.
This again requires reforms that raise
productivity and efficiency of Sri Lanka's
export sectors. A supporting macroeconomic
environment for export expansion is also
critical. The inflows of foreign savings are
exerting upward pressure on the country's
exchange rate. In turn, intervention in the
5
foreign exchange market to mop up excess
capital inflows adds to the domestic
monetary base, requiring a prudent monetary
policy response that will ensure price
stability in the medium to longer term.
As Sri Lanka learned from the withdrawal of
GSP-plus concessions by the European Union
(EU) that came tied with conditions of
marginal relevance to trade relations, reliance
on the goodwill of developed countries to
provide preferential market access does not
come without a heavy cost. Whilst such a
"carrot-and-stick" approach may also go
against the dictum that in post-conflict
recovery, donor countries fuel positive
economic recovery and do no harm by
promoting actions that heighten the risk of
conflict recurrence in any form, the onus is
on Sri Lanka to lay the foundation for the
export sector to compete in any market. This
not only encompasses improved
infrastructure, flexible labour markets,
improved labour force skills and a
competitive exchange rate regime, but it also
means strengthening the institutional
infrastructure for better governance.
Transparency and accountability - be it in
relation to investors and/or tax payers - will
strengthen the state's credibility and prevent
its authority being undermined in myriad
ways.
Thus, the ingredients to guide a successful
post-conflict development effort are many.
This year's 'State of the Economy' report
devotes itself to an initial exploration of
many of the above policy issues that Sri
Lanka faces in meeting the challenges of a
post-conflict economic development effort.
Primary among them is the need to bridge
socio-economic inequities across the
country, taking a cross-sectoral assessment
of policy concerns.
The lack of reliable information in the
previously conflict-affected regions of the
N&E - be it on demographic trends,
production, asset base, or socio-economic
conditions - stymies efforts to arrive at a
robust analysis of the regions' developmental
needs and prospects for recovery.
Nonetheless, it is clear that the N&E face
problems peculiar to a region that has been
the theatre of conflict for nearly three
decades, despite the fact that similar
deprivations and disparities exist even within
the 'conflict unaffected' areas of the country.
The scattered information available suggests
that the decades of marginalization have left
the N&E as two of the poorest provinces of
Sri Lanka. The need of the moment is not
only to build up the socio-economic
environment in the N&E - comparable to the
rest of the country - but to do it rapidly.
This means taking a multi-pronged approach
to development, which takes into account
rebuilding and modernizing destroyed
infrastructure, alleviating poverty through
promoting economic independence, and
providing the necessary social safety nets for
managing vulnerability to shocks.
In this, a key element is rebuilding -
rebuilding of destroyed physical and social
infrastructure such as roads, schools,
telecommunications, electricity services, and
health facilities, etc. Such measures on the
one hand provide an environment for human
resource development, as well as
encouraging investments through reduced
transaction costs and improved returns to
private investments.
The traditional livelihood practices and the
know-how that took advantage of the natural
resources in the N&E were discontinued due
to decades of conflict, while most productive
resources in the area were oriented towards
military efforts. For sustained development,
it is essential that the people in the N&E are
able to take advantage of their natural
endowments and be economically
6
independent. To achieve this, they must be
assisted in reviving their traditional
livelihoods, including tourism, fisheries,
agriculture and other industries. Assistance
is needed in a variety of ways including,
skills training, managing local assets, and
improving access to credit.
The long duration of the conflict has also
damaged the social infrastructure and the
trust of the people in the area. Efforts must
be put in place to encourage community-
led approaches to developing the production
base in the N&E and help rebuild the
damaged social fabric in these war torn areas.
Going beyond livelihoods, human resources
in the N&E regions should be developed such
that people are productive and are able to
make use of new opportunities. In this regard,
filling existing gaps in service delivery - such
as improving immunization coverage and
providing second chances to school drop-
outs - is important. At the same time,
education and health services need to be
modernized so that people are able to take
advantage of new developments in health
care, and be able to gain modern skills that
are in demand in the labour market.
The rest of this report will discuss these inter-
linked issues through a series of chapters and
policy briefs.
Policy Perspectives (Translation Sinhala) free download / e-version
i
cucuu.. -e.er.<
Oec +c r ueee c,Ou e-q3O. euu.
oc._ u..O.u e.., zcc . _r.O
.r._u e... :. eO.Oc ..O. ee. r,c
eceuu c.u.r ecuu3 er.O o,u. eree
u.u o.cOr cu_.. ou rc .,u. .u...
Oe., e.._. O.e.u .u O . o.cOr
oOc.u. ue. c.<r eu.O, eu..cu
.,uOc<. :. c.c_e3u u .,uOc< e:.
oO..u. e... O. O,u rc,< e:u er.O
e.u.. or Oreu.u o-.e zcc Ocee.
c,Ou O.cu. O _ e.. uec.ue. +.% r
e.ecre o: Oc.u e3.. .c.uu. O.e.
ouOcu O ouc, .O e:u c.r rc,< err
O.. c_.O,uu u3, e.._. o.cOr oc-e.u
o__ O. :,r -_c3 .,uOu r_u-.
oecre.eOu eO... eO,uu u3, o.cOr
oOc.u. e3-u.e.u .u O. :,r oOe.e
-_c3 c.c.u .,O3r.c o.cOr. u_u
...r._uO uc.u. O. :,r eOc.u.
e:. O oOeO. -:Oe3 ..O. uuuO. ue.
.Ocu O...

c.c.u .,O3r.c uuuO. .ueuu e-.e:. e
... Ou ouc, .,O3r.c uuuO. uc.rc<.O
o._ c.u.u rc,< :. -,< e-.e:. e.3
e.c._u eOuer3 cO o,u_u .. u..u
ec_O e.u:,c rOeu.u o. O r_ oecreu
e.c._u :. eOc.u oc.< e:u
cueu..u. e: u,Ou e..:u,.. erec
e... O oO..r e3. c.c.u .,O3r.c
eOc.u., o.cOr reeu.O .3u.r qcO o._
Ou ue., o: ._r oc.< Oueu eu
er.c....u: oe..uu.O.u c_- c.u.u
rc,< c_-O ee3u.O rOu o.cOr
cucu u e3c.u. rc. ..u .,O3r.c
uu uO. cuc.Ocuu. Oe3 c..u oO.u3
e..r o: rc. .. e3 e3-u.e.u .,O3r.c
uu uO.u c,Ou c.e..u Oeu e3c.u
cucu uO_ ec.q _re< u -. :,r OO, e3
e:. uce.u e.__O. .,_ecu ce3..r
eu..,u. .,O3r.c uuuO.uO .:<qu eee
c.e..u e.u . _r.O , u.ue.. eOe.e O
uu uO.uO .,_ecu o.r.ce. ce3..r ere.
.u .uO ue. o. e.ur u_e. r..r.cu
eOu u -. .u O. :. .Ou Oeu., o.
e3c.u. er.O r..u.r rc. e,.O. O:.
O,.u e3.

e.: uc, Oeuu. e: u,e.u:c
ueO.. .u O,:eO:u ..u uc, :.
u,e.u:c c_.u e:. eOc.u oc.< cr..
rc.O ce. ,uO.u ._ruO. e.u o,u.
oeur ouO e.r O,: eO:u Or_ cee.
cucu u cr..u. e_eu OuO r.c. ..c.r
O r_ .:u cuuu. c ,r. u.u o_
,rOu cc_ e.ur O,: eO:uO o,u_u O<.
e..u ..e.u Ou...O cu uc, u,e.u:c
ce. r:u.u eOc.u. rc.O oecre.
rcu _,- o,u ouc, cec eee ce..u :
cOuu. .... - u..cr oe..uu.O qc,rc_.
e:. oO..u. e... rcu _,- ue. cee.
e.. c<O:. . _r.e3 cu.r.u ou.:u
-:uc.r Oeu c_.u _,- -O zcc euO.c :.
oec_ ..e.u: c,Ou eu..cu .,uOc<. :.
c.c_e3uu .,uOc<. u_u _,- re. eu.O
Oc euOc. u_u crO O.. uO zcc
ourc.u .... e..:<.u ue. ce.O or
c,uuru e:.. _,-<. c.<r eu.O, cee.
o.cOr c<O:. ou3, .3u3 O_O r:u3
.Ou_ c:er3 O,:.< rc. c_- r.c<.
cu..r.u e,_r. .u er.Oer
e3-u.e.u -_c uc<.u.r e..r.r O..

e3 o.cu .u r_, zcc c._r ce. Oeu
_-..u .,uOc< e..:<.u u_u
c.c_e3uue3 c:e -:uc.r e:u .ru.u
O...r. :c:. e .c._u :. c ucu u..
eO.OcuO.r .3 uc.rO e:ur O o,u. o,uu
O.e.u. uce.c eOc.u c .uu .u rce.:
_., OcuOc -_.O cu O ce.uO .:< .O e
O ouOcu -...O ou3, euc cu O
c.c_e3uuOr e3cc< u_ r._.. cOuO.
.,u.O eu.:,r Ou o.r.ce. oeOc e...
-:Oe3 uuuO. u.. rc. e:. e.r
.,uOc< u_u ceO.Or . rc qu. eree
u.u .,uOc< u_u _,- e..:< e:u
er.Oe.u c Oce.u: rO.u e:. O,:
ceO.Or ce.O _,- ue. :.... c.uu
oOe.u O.u e.. cu -_ce..u: oO..u.
.c.uu. c.e: e... erecueu e... u_u
.u Ou o.cOr cu_.. eu_. .,u. erec:
.. e.: cuc_.r O.e.u e.cO o.cOr c.u.
:. r_cOuu. e... c_- :_ u,e.u .:u
-_.ec.ec.uu O rc. c<e ce. eOu o,u
erecu -_c3 ouc3 O.._..

zcc .,. .e cee. :.. Oeu o_OOc .
cc.e. r_ u eO or oec re.Ou :_ ..u
cOu. . _r.e3 ...r._u o.cOr oecre.
c_- ..O. :,.3 r.uu. o,u O..
ec.cr O..c.c. e:. r. ..u.uu.r
O.e.u c.<r eu.O, zcc eO. r.c.
e..u. :_ u,O. erec: u,c, O u.<
e_e c-eu o.cOr.r e_eu e.._.
oO..u. e... rc .,u.O . _r.O .:ec
O.. e.: zcc Oce. u_ _rr.u 6.0
6.5 cu.u.r Oc.u e3..r ou rc .,u.O .
_r.O .u.O eO.u.u O o,u ouc cO
o.cOre. c..u o. e._e_:. cr-u O.
cOO:_r O o,u. :er Oc.u.. c.<r
o.cOre.u e..:o. e_e ocO rOu.
eu.Ouu.r e.u., ._r O, uc<.u.r O
e. Oueu cc_ cu.ru .u Oc.u...
.u r._uO dr.. oOeO. uc.u. e:
.:euu.Oe. eOu uu uO. u.. eOOe3
:,r..O cO o,u_u ..

._ r._uO, .ru.u o.cOr Oc.u. u_u
O..cu O -_c3 ..e.u e:3-u O
euu.Oe. eu euu u_ cOuu. o..u.cO.u
eOueOu re.3 r.c. ..c.r O rcu o,u.
e..e e.c._u -e. er.<.ru -_u r_
o.cOr. e..:u,.e3 o- r..O_.r u_u
..e.u c:.OO cu er.c... c.<r eu.O,
cec eee ce. e3-u .e.u cOuu.
oe..uu.OuO r:u.u e:u e,_e.
uc<.u.r rc,<r e3. e.r ce..u:
r-erc..uu. e: ec.cr O..c.c
e3-u.e.u o,uOu ce-. .. .O c eu
o,u. oe:u uc, u,e.u:c c_.uO_
eOc.u. c Oec rc. u_ e3.Ou rc.
ii

e:. .O O:. r_ .u e ue. o,uu
O.e.u., . r._u .,O3r.c O.u.Oc<.ru,
ouuc,O u,. ou ce..r o.cOr Oc.u.
._ r..u.r rc. e:. OO. ce3..u oO..
Ou o,u. .:c<.r e_e, .,O3r.c
uuO.u O,_,rO. c.-uO.r .uu.
oOeO.Or, ou3 o e:. e3.Ou Oe.r oO,e
OO, .3 c.e. O.3 O_ cu_...u e,.OO.
o.e..eu o,..e3 e3.u O.r..uO .Ou
rc. eq r_ eu.:,r. e.ur .Ou_ c:er3
eOc.u. rc.O e.u. e..e. c...u
eOc.u., ou3 Ou...O cu e..:u,._,
ec.:_, c.e,_ ...Ou o.. u,Ou e..:u,..
c<e erOr._u O.e.u O: O:. .u rcu
_-u r....c. u_u, . _r.e3 .r._u
e..e e.c._u oc.< e.re.u rc
.,ue.:_. r.e_.cu ..ruO.r e,c.. :,r
..

ce. Oeu ccu rcu _,- o,u cucu u..
e_-<.u : e.r ._r rc,< e-.e:...r
ouuc.uO o,u. o,uu O.e.u. uc,
u,e.u:c c_.u e:. eOu er.O o,u O.3
e3..ce.u crOO eceuu cc o
e3-u.e.u e-.e:. rO.u r..u.r eO.u
cOu. u,Ou e..:u,Oe3 r:u3 c.uu O_u
.-O .., . r._u c.c.u .,O3r.c o.cOr
eOc.ur e:. er.uu.r oecre. rcu
c,:,_ ...r._u cucu u oc.< ou.O..
e3. eOc.u re..c..O c eu eOce.c
...r._u e.cO o.cOr r.. c..Or eu..,u
u,u, ..e. oc .uu u,. eO cOO_ ._ Oec
rc. u_ e3.Ou eOc.u.r rc. ..e3
o: ee.. .r._uO uce.cO cOuu. orr
eu.e3.

zcc Oce. e:. _ e.. uec.ue.u % r
e_e creec<. r_ o.O,. ccuc. Oec
oOe.u. Ou OO _ e.. uec.ue.u 9.8%
r rO. ce.c<. Oe.u . _r.OO o
eOueOu .:u c.uu.r ,c.O eq O.
e,_r__O .,ue3 O.Oeu. e.cO o.cOr
cucu u.. r.. c..Or u. oO.. orr -O
ecu ... o.cOre. ce-.r ue-u oucuc
-q o.... c:u O,O. e.u. O,. oO..u.
(ou3 oOu,u OOu e:. O cuc,uO.cu :.
u,Ou cc rce3 rO.u o..) r.e.u :_
... .O e:u O.. eree OO or ._.
qercu. u_u _,-< c<O:. u3 c Oec
rc. u_ e r_ .u e.cO o.cOr
r_.u.rc< o.e....u e-.e:. erc< Ou
-O.. e.cO o.cOr cucu u. .,O3r.c
uu uO. oO. rce.:_. ccO er.uee.r ee
oO.. Oueu or r..O_e. cec
eO.OcuO.O :.u.r eu.O. e:ur erec.u
:_ Oc.u.r oucu rc .,u.O.. c,:,_O.
.u r_ .O eOc.u. :. eO.OcuO. ouc
cOuu. o,u,3 ouur_ uu uO.u o:. e3.
o,uuO.e.u . . _r.e3 ..e.u ce
o.cOr. e..: .,ue3 r..O_. eOueOu 3
Ou c<e e...u. ..u. :. o.O,. ccuc.
c. eO.r o.u o:e e3. e.: c,:,_ :.
ccOcuu.u.r o.cOr c ucuu c ueerc<
r..O_.r e:.. ... r._u e.cO o.cOr r..
c..Or e:. _,e u3 o- ..OurO ce3.
Oe3 o: oO.u.rO .:< .O e Ou -O
:u. .,u. O,.u e3.

._. cucuu. e:. O c.-u.O. O. .ueu
.Ou_ c:er3 eOueOu erecu o.e..eu
e.u. u,Ou rc3 c<e O,. eOu O.3
ee. ._. e3c.u. rc. .. qcru. o.cOr,
o..uur :. c ucu u.. cueerc<
er_u.r e.. c.e. ._ e3c.u. ouO,_
-, .,u. oO.. e3. oO,u cueerc<
eu..,u uu: . _r.e3 c.e. ._ r.OuO
e.O. ou3, c...u o.e..eu O,: rc. c<e
cuc.Ocuu O.3 rc. :,c. qcO_ e3. o-
u..u.O.r eu..,u OOe:.u e-.e:. ee
.Ou_ c:er3 .u e..:u,e.u eOc.u
c.uu., uu,uu. <. oc._ .u cu3 Ou
o,u. e...u cec c.e. <. e3..c. :_
...O :. e.cO o.cOr eO..u.O :. o..u
oO.u3 uuuO.u O,: O.O .. ceu
c.<r eu.O, . _r.e3 eOc.u
c.-u.O.uO oO.. Ouu. O ._. e3c.u.r
oecreu e_e eq eu.O.O e:u c.r Ou
o,u.

o.cOr cueerc< c_- cc_ O,: eO:ur
eu.,u O. uOu o:urc cuc_.r .u
O.O e:u O. :,r. u. O,.u .Ou_
c:er3 O..c-uu e.:.r e:. o.e..eu eq
rc. Oc.ue. e.cOruO.O ue,rO.
cO-_.r Ou o,u. .Ou_ c:er3 e:.
erecu O.3 O_u c.e. Our3 -: Ou
c.<r eu.O, .<r c uc_ e:uO o.cOr.O
._ u__ rc.r eq Ou o,u. eree u.u
...r._u O.e.u c.<r eu.O, cOu .-O
o- Oc.u r.....r uce.cO cOuO. .,u.O
u3 o.cOre. e.eu c_..u.O O,:.< O.
.u.. cO.:u, -_.ru e: euue3u
reeu.u : O,:.<r_ .Ou_ c:er3 e:u
er.O e.u o,u Ou ccO,. c:u O,O., e...3
O:.u uc.r.c O.O 3Or e3. oe:u
o.cOre. c_..u.O :_ u,O. .u r.c<.O
uec.u e..r eOu rce3 O,:.< rc3
oO.. e3. o.cOr cueerc< :c:.
oO,u O,:.< rc.r eu.e3 u3, . _r.e3
o.cOr c..<. oc. c.eu orr OuuO :
ue-u ouc, e,c.3 o.e. -:u.OuO
o.cOr. :ceO. ue. O,: oeOcu.O.rO .Ou
OuuO : ue. e.: O,.u rc,< Oueu
cc_ O cueerc< c.uu.r eu..,u r_:
O,: .<r_ .Ou_ c:er3 O_u e,_eeu
eeO. oc.<rO e.. Ou ouc u .-O O:
eu......

ce.O _,-< .r u.u euOc.u c,:,_
Oueu cueerc< e3.u rc .,u. e:.
u. r. oOeO.Or _,- ue-u -O..
uOrc<. Ou o.cOr.r oO..u. ecc._.
ecc,crc e.u, ..<:...ce. ._. qercu.
_:_ rc. ee. ce. eu O.Oe..u
cuO.:.u rc., dr.. uc.u. eOueOu
o.rce<. O.u.Oc<.r o,u rc. e:. ..
eO_ec.e_: cueerc< eq rc. e.u.
o...cue. .<.u.r -O, o._uO. :. eeO.
e3c.u. e:. o. ree u. eOueOu O
cueerc< .u.. oO..u. e... O. .u
o,u,3 reeu e3. . _r.e3 .... r-e
o.cOr r.c.re.u.O. :. c_..u.O. :_
u,O.O o._ u. qerc :. e.c._ur
O.e.u u. erc< reeu.u :
cueerc< e3. ce. u. Or_c.u e_r.
-,_e.u r-uO O:. e... r.r,. .uu

Policy Perspectives (Translation Sinhala) free download / e-version
iii
uc<. rcu o,u. eree u.u O:.u
c:eeOu r_ :,r e ...r._u cueerc<
r..O_. u_ r..u.r r_ .u ouc,
cueercu r..... e:. O our.r
ce3.. ue.. eu.r_ . u..

e.: . _r.O cOuu uuuOe.u u-cu.O
cu O e,:,__eOu eO. eu.rO.u e.r e3.
.Ou_ c:er3 e:. O,: O,:e.u O.3 ,c.
:c:. .. .,O3 O_u r- uO o,u Ou o.cOr
ce-... e:u er.O e.u c Oec rc. u_
e...u. O.cer Oc.u e3.. % r.O. .u
o,u. . _r.O zcc c_. r.cuO Ou OOu
.1% r .e. u. Oc.u.r euO:u rc.O
uc3 .ru.u ..O.O c,.< ue. eOc.u.
e3-u.e.u oO,u O.Oeu. c<O:.r u_u
cueerc< eq rce3 oO..u.O. .Ocu O.
:,r.. oe:u eu. O.e.u. .r._u
eOc.u.rO cu. e,re. c<e cO c.eu
e_e .ec.uu eu e3r.Or c_e._ er.O
cc_ O cueerc< e: u .O u_ c:er3
eOc.u c.uu.r cO eccr e_e oru
rcueu u3 o.u u..u uce.c cuc_ .
erecu o,u.

Oc.u c.u. e.cO o.cOr eO.Ocu.O. :. -,
cOuuur -O e:ur rce.: _. -.e..cc
._. cucuu r.. c..Or r.c. ..c. u.
O.._ .. Ocuu O.3 eO..u. rc. e:.
O.._ e_e c.uu ,ce.u eu.cO o...3
o.. c_-O oO..u. e... erec.u c.e.
._. eO.OcuO. .3u.r qcrO e.re.u rc
.u :,r.. o,uu O.e.u . c,Ou o.cOr
ce-. o.-O. o.cOr O.e.u . _r.O u,.
eOu e.. r._e..O u_ o...3 uc.u.
..e3.,. -_.ec.ec.uu O. :,r.. .O o.uc
O.e.u ,uO cOuu. .cOe3 eO _ e..
uec.ue.u 2% r Ou ee zc Ou Ou OO
-q o.... O,: rce3 o:eu -qrc< O.:.
eO..u. er.O -q ccc._u. O,: .< rc.
e:. e3 Ou OOu ce. Oeu eu..cu
-qrc< er..eu e..Or cu rc. ..u c.Oc
e.u o,u.
e.: O..u e_e er_u. O -q o. r..r
e... .,u. O,.u e3. -q O,: rce.u
Oc.u.O -... o,u O. :,r.. Oc.u.
e3-u.e.u o:. -_c3 o,u Ou o,ueu
cce..eu. :. u.c_ ec_ O,u Our3 .u
c,ueOu -q ..u. eree OOu eOu O..
erec: re<rO o:urc -_c3 o,u rcu
e:.u cce..eu - O,: rce3 e..r.cr
cOu.

._. :..u cc.,e. c<e o...3 uc.u.
O:_ O. :,r u.q :u e:u rc,<
e,_r__O .uu. OO o. o..r orr c.<r
e3. uO ._r O.e.u. Oe.. <. :c:.
o.cOr. u_ c.e. c...u o.e..eu O,: rc.
erec: -_.ec.ec.uu u-u eOc.u
re..c..u e:. cee. oO..u. e... r_
:,r. . _r.e3 eOc.u ..Ou eOueOu
o.cOr oO..u. cu3 O c.e. <. ..u
e.e:.Ou _-u .Ou_ c:er3 e:. O
cc... u_u r,c eceuu ..ruO.r e,c..
:,r -OO o,ueu ec e,r.r. :_ Oc.u.r
u_u c.e. <. -c o: Ou e:.u e: O,:
O,:e.u -q o...3 _,-. ..u c.e. ._
eO..u. rc.O c:eOr Ou e:.u o-
re..c..r ucr.ur_O e...c<rc<. r_
:,r.. ._.c..ur_O <. _-. e.u oO.
-.e..cc o.cu O.3 rcu _-u ce.uO
e.r cu_.. .ru O. :,r.. oe:u
eOc.u. eO.u cOuu e-.e:...r cOO_
e3-u.e.u c.e...rO ou,r o,ueu c.e.
<. r_.u.rc<. e.cO o.cOr oeO.OcuO.O
:. oc-.uO ._r O o,u -O..

eee oOuu oO.u3 e3. ee:u O, c.c.u
.,O3r.c o.cOr. cr-u.u rce3 re..c..r,
ec._r o.e..eu.u e:. o,c.3 rcu
o,u. e.: ocO. u3 cee. <.O .,u3
ec._r o.e..eu O_O o,u :ceO. e..
eu.r_ .u -O.. cO e:uO u3, o..u
ou..u Oc.u. c:_ ...O : o,u ue...
e.. uuuO. e.u. rc. e:. Oe.. <.O
.,u3 :c:. cOO_ O_O ._. e3c.u oO..u.
O_u O,: er.Oer cc.e. .,u. e:. u,c,
O. :,r.. O.._ e_e Oe.. <. _-.
.,ue.u o,u Ou ouuc,..r uuuO.u
rOc,u uu. rc,<r. Oe.. <. .,u3
e... o.uc Ou.. ouc.ur oO.u3 e:
-.:c o.cOr uuuO.u o__Ou oOuu
r3cu.uO e..qc,Oe3 oO.u. o,ue3.

erOr._u Oe.. c...u. .u -_.ec.ec.u u
u-u uc.O. e.cO o.cOr oeO.Oc..O. O,:
Oueu .. c.e. ._. e3c.u :.. c.O.
c<e zcc Ocee. ..<:...c -_cu :.
-,3rc ..u . _r.O O.._ e_e Oe..
oe..eu .u c. c,Ouu. oO.u.r e_r<
qO O:.. o.e..er.u Ou O ...O : o,u
-O crO rc,<r. Oe. <. o.ce e.O3,
ocu.u O_O rOu ouc.u. Oc.u. Ou OO
(ou3 zcce - zcc ouc r._. u_ 7.1% eO
14.6% rO. e.<.ru).u :,r O:.u
o.cre.r.c r....c.. u3 Oe.. <. o.ce
e.O3 cOO .ec.uu eu .cO.r cOuO.
.,u. c<e ocu.u O_u _,e-u c,.3 cO
O:_ rc .,u... e3 e:. ou3 .
_r.e3 ocu.u reeu.u u_ c_..u.O :.
r.c.re.u.O. :_ u,O. e:. O
cueerc< oO.. e3. ocu.u. cc_ rc.
e:. e:.. Ou e.cO o.cOr ccec.r
oO..e.u. u-. .u.. Oe. uc,3 .
_r.OO ._. o. u_u . _r.e3 Ou..
ouc.ur. erec: Oc.u.Ouu -_c.r o,u
rc.. o..u ouecr c...u ._. o3
oOe..e<. rc .,u. e:. Oe. Ou..
eO_ec.e_: erecu .,:u O3 e.. ._
cu. e3-u.e.u O,: Ou ouc, cO
...r._u O.e.u :. . r._u O.e.u ._
eO.OcuO. e:ur Ou o.r.ce. Ocre< ._.
cucu u.. cuc.c oO.. e3.

eO_ e3-u.u.O.uO ouc3 o._uO.r
eu..,u er.uee e.u:,c rO.u .ec.c.
e... Oeu eoec e:u Ou rc. u_u .
_r.O .u c.:3 .,u e_r. -_u OO, Oc<.
eO_ec._ ce3..r _-. .,u. e:. eOc.u
O cOO_O_ e:. :u u. .uuO ... -ccu_
c.: O .,ue.u eu.cO eq r_ eu.:,r..
eO_ ..e.u ceO cO e..:u,.e3 ..r
cOO_ Oeu ..O. e_e o.cOr. e..: u,..
c<e e:.. c_ rcu -OOu u,Ou ...r
o,u Oe3 oO.u. O,: O.O u: eu re
o.r.ce. :.u..r r..Or eu.rcu -OOu O

iv

e..uu.O cuOc,.O .u r,cc o_.r
ecuO. -_ -. .,ue3 ce3..r O,u.. e..
uu uO. u_ . _r.e3 O.r. Oueu .u.
eO_ec._r u_ uc. rc .O :,r Ou ee
ocu.u o.e. cu. e,re... .Ou_
c:er3 :_ u,O., .. eO_ec._ u..._
-OO cu rc., .. -_r.e. :,r.. .ruu
O,:.< rc. e: Ou.. ouc.u O.:.
uc.r.c -OO cu rc. c.<r eu.O O:.u
e:. c._u.r c<e O o..uur .Ou_
c:er3 .ru.u rc. e..u o:e e3.
oe..er.u e:e:. -q e.Ouuu
e3-u.e.u e:. e3O. OuO..O. :.
O.rO.u -O c.e.e. O.Oeu.uO. .ru.u
rcu ouc o: o.r.c -_. OO..r.ce.u
oOureec,OO _r rce.u O_ru o,u. e3
ouO -_u r_ . .,O3 O_u r-uO e.cOr
o.cu eOc.u c.uu e.e:O. e:. oO..
e e-.e:. .. . .,O3 O_u ceO erecu
o.cOr eOc.u c.uu.u: o.e... O_O .
_r.O .:< eu :u r cucu u.. .,Oc
c...r ._rO o...u. rc. erec: e..
Ocee. o.cOr uuuO. O.cu.O e... O
ue. oO. ouc c..u Oueu cucuu..
O.e.u O,.u Ou rc,< c_-O or or
o. :c:. eeuu.u.r ureec,Or er.O
.c cec. o.cOr oe..uu.Ou : ccuc.
cO,re3 oO..u.O...

.,O3r.c uu uO.O e..qc, O u- uc, :.
u,e.u:c ce.O_ eu.cuc, (ou3 eu e-..
cuu, uec.u. Our3 cu. e:. e..e
o.cOr .u.) _-. .,u.O eu..,u O. ue.
or ce..u : eOc.u oO..u. e: o.cOr.
e..:u,.. e:. eOce.c O.e_e<.r rce3
c.uu oO:c O.O e: u e3. eree OO
..e. -_c.O :e eu.O eee ce.
e3-u.e.u e_r. -_u r_ uc, u,e.u:c
ce..u : euu.Oe. e.u o.uO.er3
o:.O3 :. oe.u_uu. oO.e. cOuu u.q,
.r uurO o.euu r._.r ..e. e3r.Or
-OO cuO u- uc, u,e.u:c ce. O_O.
c.<r Oe.eu O c.u cOuu -O c,:,_
rc,<r.

_-..u Oec eu.cuc, O_u ecu .ueu .r
.<u.Or cc. uc, u,e.u:c ce. er.u
rc. oO. u..u _ c_.u -OO cu O.O u:
o,u -O.. e.. oOeO.e3 r_ .u Oueu
eueuu.u.rO cec eee ce. O_O e.u
uc, u,e.u:c c_.uO_ e..e o.cOr ccec.
e..:u,.. c.<r eu.O o. e3.OuO eq
rc... e.: o:e Oueu Ou...O cu .Ou_
c:er3 u,Ou e..:u,.. :. uOrc<. rc.,
o.cOr eO..uuO. O,: rc. u_u _ -O
ucu rc. e: r3cu.uO e..qc,Oe3
oO.u. r_.u.rc<. rc. c<e oO..
e..e.. o.cre< e._ o,u rc. .u. rc,<
e,_r__O .u.u eOc.u. rc. e... O -:
....- ce3..r o,u rc...

e.. r.c.e. ._r... Oueu u,Ou
e..:u,.... ou3 Ou...O cu ...Ou ,
c.e,_, euue3u :. Oq_-_ c:er3, ee-.
eeO. O,u e.ur, e..e.. .Ou_ c:er3
u,Ou e..:u,.... or ouru o- r....c.
u_u ..uO e3cu eOc.u.O e.u. .ueu
ccO,. o:O. :c:. o.e..eu c.u O. c.<r
eu.O ec._r o.e..eu eOueOu O,:
cu_.. ourc .,u. e:. O.u.Oc<.r
e,_ee.

.r .<u.Or cc. c,Ou . . .,O3 e:u er.O
e.u or ce..u : eO...Or e3cu r:.
.,u. :. -,u o: euu.Oe. eOeu.c.. cc,q
:. ,u. .. .,O3 c,Ou .r .<u.O u_
o,<:O ouc o. ce..u : e-.e:. c_..
e3cu :.... c.uu e:. e... .,uu.
uc, u,e.u:c euu.OO eO..O.c.e.
....r O.e.u _,- o,u e.. e3cu .Ou
Oeu .ruO. :. o.cOr O.e.u uO:_ O.
.u e..r uce.c eOc.u.r e:. ou..O..
.. e.. e.re.u rc .,u. e:. o. euu.OO
ec.cr, .Oc, r-erc.. :. eOuu rc..uu
o,ucO u. e.3c..r eOeu.c..u cuceOu.
rc .,u. e:. e:.. . .u.. uc<u.
c:<O, c.e.. Our3 r_.u.rc<. e: <.
c:er3 _-. . O,:.< rc. .u rc,<
o,ucO OO. e:.. .OuO e_eu _,-. .u..

.. .,O3 uuuO. c r._ cccee. u_
c,Ou. ue., e..e. .Ou_ c:er3 c.<r
eu.O ce.e. euu.Oe. O .O.e. - O,Ou.
o-,Ou uc, u,e.u:c ce.O_ ce.._
ce3..r o,u rc. c.u er.O ..e.u
Ou...O cu or ce.u : :.u.O cu e..e
cO.O u,Ou e..:u,.. e:. e:.. e,_e.
.u..

eOeu.c...u c.<r eu.O, uO ceO.
ce..eu.O .u.u c_.. r..r.cr3O_ ucu
O.O :,r Ou ee uc, u,e.u:c ce..u :
..uO e3cu eOc.u. r_ .u.. e3
e3-u.e.u .u r_ eeO. e3c.u. c_-O
,uO cOuu. o:c.:r3 ou3 cu.rurc<
ouuu rO.u O..cu rc. e: c.e,_ :,c ..
_.u e:. eO,u oOeO.Or _-. . O,u e
O,.u .. oe.u. uO eOc.u.u: cu_..
.ru O.O e: .. eO_ec.e_ __.r o,u
uO uc<u. .:<. rc .,u.O :,r Ou
o.cO o...cu. :. ee-. eeO. reeu
uOrc<. rc. oO....

e.. O.cu.e3 uc er.Oee cccee
.<u.Or :. cucu u.. eO:u u_u e.r
ouuc e3-u.u... .,Oc e.rcc. erec.


i
1. nfhs; ifj; Njhw; wq; fs; 1. nfhs; ifj; Njhw; wq; fs; 1. nfhs; ifj; Njhw; wq; fs; 1. nfhs; ifj; Njhw; wq; fs; 1. nfhs; ifj; Njhw; wq; fs;
2009 Mk; Mz;by; 30 tUl fhy MAje;
jhq;fpa gpuptpid thjg; Nghuhl;lj;jpd;
ntw;wpfukhd KbTld; = yq;fh ePz;l
fhyr; rkhjhdk; kw; Wk; ]; jpuj; jd; ikia
Nehf; fp fdp rkhd Kd; Ndw; wj; ij
mile;Js;sJ. vt;thwpUe;j NghjpYk;>
ngUkstp yhd cyfg; nghUshjhug;
gpd; diltpdhy; kl; Lkd; wp> [dhjpgjp kw; Wk;
ghuhSkd; wj; Nju; jy; fspdhYq; $l jpir
jpUg;gg; gl;bUe;jikahy; nghUshjug;
gpujpgyd;fs; ,lk; ngWtJ nkJthf
,Ue; jd. ,j; jifa epiyikfspd; kj; jpapy;
xg;gPl;L uPjpapy; = yq;fhtpd; 3.5 E}w;W
tPjj;jpyhd jho;e;j [P.B.gP tsu;r;rpahdJ
ngUk; ghYk; ftdp f; fg; glhJ Ngha; f;
nfhz;bUe;jJ. mbg;gilapw; fhuzq;fs;
,U kbg;Gfshf ,Ue;jd. Kjyhtjhf
cyfg; nghUshjhuf; Fog; g epiyg;
ghjpg; Gfspd; > = yq; fhtpd; nghUshjhuj; jpd;
kP jhd Nkhrkhd Nkhjy; gw; wp kp f
Kd; gjhfNt vjpu; ghu; j; J ,Ue; jikahFk; .
mj;NjhL ,uz;lhtjhf ,ilf; fhyg;
gFjpapy; tsu;r;rpf;fhf Aj;jj;jpd; gpd;G
nghUshjhuk; cw; gj; jpahf; ff; $ba Gjpa
tha; g; Gfs; gw; wpa rhjfq; fspdhy; > tPo; r; rp
gw;wp vQ;rpapUe;j VjhtJ ftiyfSk;
kiwf; fg; gl; bUe; jd.
Aj; jj; jp d; gp d; G vd; w nrhw; fsp d;
ghtidahdJ mjpy; cs; slq; Fk; Aj; jj;
jP u; T gw; wpa gy murpaw; fUj; Jfs; cw; gl; l
gy tplaq; fs; gw; wpg; nghUs; gLfpd; fpd; wd.
,Ue;j NghjpYk; kpfj; njspthf> mJ
vz;zq; nfhz;Ls;s murpay; kw;Wk;
mgptpUj; jp Nehf; FfSldhd ey; nyz; zk;
kw; Wk; kP sf; fl; bnaOg; Gk; xU fl; lnkdg;
nghUs; gLtjhff; nfhs; s KbAk; .
Aj;jj;j;pd; gpd;dhd nghUshjhuj; Jiw
njhlu; ghd mgptpUj; jpfisg; nghWj; j kl; by;
FOf;fs; kj;jpapy; mePjq;fs; njhlu;ghd
gpur;rpidfSf;F czu;r;rpA+l;lf; $ba
ngh Ush jh u f; nfh s; iffis
tbtikg;gjpdhy;> kPz;Lk; Aj;jk; ,lk;
ngwf; $ba gpujhd Mgj; Jf; fhuzpfisf;
Fiwg;gNj mbg;gil Nehf;fhFk;. ,e;j
,yf;fpd; Nehf;fpy; Aj;jj;jpdhw; ghjpf;fg;
gl; l ehLfsp dhy; gp d; gw; wg; gLk;
nfhs; iffspy; gy cld; ghLfs; ,Uf; ff;
$ba Nghjp Yk; > xNumsT-vjw; Fk;
nghUe; Jk; vd; w xU mZFKiw ,y; iy.
Aj; jj; jp dhw; ghjp f; fg; gl; l Vida
ehLfisg; Nghd; W = yq; fh mjd; nrhe; jr;
#o; epiyfSf; F> re; ju; g; gj; jpw; F Vw; w xU
mZFKiwia tbtikf;f Ntz;Lk;.
midj; Jf; Fk; Nkyhf mJ Njrp a
,af;Fdu;fspdhy; cilik nfhz;Lk;
cUtikf; fg; gl; L nraw; gLj; jg; gl
Ntz; Lk; .
,e; jj; Jiwap y; KiwNa cj; JW
t]e; ja (tlf; fpd; tre; jk; ) kw; Wk;
nenfd`pu eNthja (fpof; fpd; vOr; rp)
vd;w tl kw;Wk; fPo; khfhzq;fSf;fhd
jpl; lq; fspd; mbg; gilapy; mjd; mgptpUj; jp
,yf; Ffis mwp tp g; gjp y; murhq; fk;
Vw; fdNt Kd; epiyia vLj; Js; sJ. kW
Gwkhf ,it murhq; fj; jpd; Nju; jy;
tpQ; QhgdkhfTk; ghtpf; ff; ; $bajhd ,U
Nehf;FfSld; mjd; eltbf;iffspd;
tpupthd Njrpa jpl; lq; fs; > k`pe; j rpe; jd
: ,jpup njf; k (vjpu; fhy Nehf; F) tpw; $wg;
gl; Ls; sJ.
ehl; bd; Vida gFjpfspy; epyTfpd; w fpuhk-
efug; gp up tp idfis xd; wp izg; gjp w;
ftdj; ij xU Kfg; gLj; JtNjhL;
Aj; jj; jp dhy; ehrkhf; fg; gl; Ls; s
tlf; fpw; Fk; fpof; fpw; Fk; (t kw; Wk; fp) Jupj
nghUshjhu mgptpUj;jpia mspg;gJNk
njspthd Nehf;fkhf cs;sJ. 2010 Mk;
Mz; by; [dtupapYk; Vg; uypYk; KiwNa
eilngw; w [dhjpgjp kw; Wk; ghuhSkd; wj;
Nju; jy; fsp w; ngw; w mNkhfkhd
Mizapdhy; = yq;fhtpd; thf;Fupik
'Policy Perspectives' (Translation - Tamil) free download / e-version
ii
ngw;w ngUk; ngUk;ghd;ik kf;fsplk;
murhq;fj;jpd; J}J vjpnuhypj;jJ vd;gJ
njupfpwJ. mNj Ntis 2009 y; Nghupy;
mJ ngw; w ntw; wpfs; > mjd; nghUshjhuj;
J}J - = yq;fhtpd; fpuhkg; Gwj; Jupj
Kd;Ndw;wq;fSf;fhd cl;fl;likg;Gfs;
MfpadTk; xU Gwk;; xU Kf;fpakhd
th f; fh su ; njh Fjp ap dUf; F
murhq; fj; jpw; fhd Mjuitg; gyg; gLj; JtJ
gw; wp j; jP u; khdp f; Fk; fhuzp ahf
mike;jnjd;gijf; Fiwj;Jf; fzpf;f
KbahJ.
,t;thwhf 2010 y; MSk; murhq;fj;jpd;
Nju; jy; ntw; wpfs; ghuhSkd; wj; jpy; Rfkhd
ngUk; ghd; ikia cWjp g; gLj; jg; gl; l
gykile;j epiwNtw;W mjpfhuj;Jld;
tUk; XusT murpay; kw;Wk; nfhs;if
]; jp uj; jd; ikia = yq; fhTf; F
cj; juthjksp j; Js; sd. cz; ikap w;
Nju ; jy; fs; mLj; jLj; J tUk;
murhq; fq; fSf; ; F xU jhq; ff; $ba
mgptpUj; jp Kd; ndLg; ig epiwNtw; Wtjw; F
kP z; Lk; kP z; Lk; tUk; jiliaj;
jhz; Ltjw; F xU re; ju; g; gj; ij
toq; fp As; sd. cjhuzkhf :
Nju;e;njLf;fg;gl;l ghuhSkd;wj;jpd; KO
MAw; fhyk; tiu jhq; fp epw; gij epjKk;
jtWk; Kwpaf; $ba $l; L murhq; fq; fs; .
mNj Ntis vt; thwpUe; j NghjpYk; Nju; jy;
ntw; wp fs; tUfp d; w tUlq; fsp y;
murhq; fj; Jf; Fj; JzpTfisAk; vOg; gpd.
Aj;j Kaw;rpfspd; KbTld; ngUk;ghYk;
jdp g; gl; l Kiwap y; rkhjhdj; jp d;
nghUshjhug; gpujpgyd;fis mWtil
nra; tjpNyNa Nju; jw; njhFjpfspd; ftdk;
XuplkhFk;. ,jd; tpisthf cau;e;j
NkNyhq; fp tUk; nghUshjhu Kd; Ndw; wk;
kw; Wk; ehl; by; epiyj; jpUf; ff; $ba
rkhjhdk; gw; wpa vjpu; ghu; g; Gfs; Mfpatw; iw
vjpu; nfhs;tjw;F murhq;fj;jpd; kPjhd
mOj; jk; me; j msT NkYk;
ngupjhditahf ,Uf; Fk; .
2009 Nk khjk; murhq;fg; gilfspdhy;
jkpo; <o tpLjiyg; Gypfis Njhw; fbj; jJ
Kjy; vjpu; ghu; g; Gfs; cau; thfpf; nfhz; Nl
te; jd. = yq; fhtp d; ,ilf; fhyg;
nghUshjhu vjpu;ghu;g;Gfs; njhlu;ghd
rhj; jpaq; fspd; NkNyhq; fy; cldbahdit.
Rw; WyhTf; fhfr; nrd; wilAk; xU gpujhd
,lkhf kl; Lkd; wp 2010 njhlf; fk;
epiwNtw; wj; jpy; xU $u; e; j kP s; vOr; rpiag;
gjpT nra;Ak; vd vjpu;T $wg;gl;Ls;s
Kd; NdWk; nghUshjhuk; vd; gjdhYk; ehL
cyNfhu; ; ftdj; ij tpiue; J ifg; gw; wpaJ.
,jpy; nghUshjhuj; jpd; ngUk; ghYk; vy; yhj;
JiwfspYkhd kPl; rpapd; MjuNthL 2010
d; 7 E}w;W tPjj;ij mz;kpa tsu;r;rp tPj
,yf;if miltjpy; = yq;fh ey;y
epiyapy cs; sJ Nghd; W njupfpwJ.
tsu;r;rpf;F nghUshjhu kPl;rp khj;jpuk;
tp sf; fkhtjp y; iy vd; gJ njup e; jNj
vd; gNjhL tpupthd mbg; gilapyhd tsu; r; rp
mjd; Muk; gg; gFj; jwpAk; mq; fkhFk; . mJ
fpl; ba fhyg; gFjpapy; njhopy; tha; g; Gfis
cw; gj; jpahf; fp kf; fspd; tho; f; ifia
Kd; Ndw; Wk; Mw; wiyf; nfhz; Ls; sJ.
cldbg; gue;j mstpyhd tpisitf;
nfhz; l Muk; g fhy tYTs; s nghUshjhu
tsu;r;rpahdJ Aj;j gPjpia mDgtpj;j
kf;fspd; mgpyhirfis vjpu; Nehf;Fk;
jpirapy; XusT J}uk; nry; Yk; . xU r%f
murpaw; Njhw; wj; jpy; ehl; bd; Vida
gFjpfSf;F vjpUf;nfjpuhf Aj;jj;jpdhw;
ghjpf; fg; gl; l gpuNjrq; fspy; cs; s Vw; wj;
jho;TfSf;F mj;jifa kPl;rp Kiwfs;
cldbahfg; gupfhukspf; f Ntz; Lnkd; gJ
Fiw $Wtjw; F cupajhFk; . ,e; jg;
gpuNjrq;fspy; tptrhak; kw;Wk; Rw;Wyhj;
Jiw kWkyu;r;rp cjtpahf ,Uf;Fk;.
Mdhyp> mLj; j rpy tUlq; fspy; t. kw; Wk;
fp. f; if Jupjkhf tsUk; epiyapy;
mku;j;Jtjw;F NkYk; nra;a Ntz;ba
Njitfs; cs; sd. cz; ikapy; eP z; l fhy
Aj; jj; jpd; gpd; kpje; J tUk; xU gpuNjrj; jpw;
nghUshjhu tsu; r; rp ia kP z; Lk;
J}z;Ltjw;F gy;NtW mZF Kiwfs;
Ntz; lg; glyhk; . cjhuzkhf Aj; jj; jLg; G
Kjyplk; ngWk; ,lj; jpy; - Ntfkhfg; gpujp
gyd; Ntz;lg;gLk; - nghJr; nryTfspd;
ed;ikfs; vg;NghJk; jug; gLj;jg; gl;l
KjyP l; L kjpg; gply; El; gq; fSf; F ,irthf
'Policy Perspectives' free download / e-version
iii
,Uf;f KbahJ. cldbf; FWfpa fhy
]; J}y cl; fl; likg; G kw; Wk; r%f %yjd
kP s; cw; gj; jp Mfpa ,uz; ilAk; mgptpUj; jp
nra; tjw; F ehrkile; j tP Lfs; > itj; jpa
rhiyfs; > ghlrhiyfs; > ghijfs;
Mfp atw; iwj; Ju p jkh f kP sf;
fl;bnaOg;Gjy; = yq;fhtpd; ePz;l fhy
r%f murpay; Nehf;Ffis miltjw;F>
fhyj;Jf;F Vw;w xU gq;fspg;igr; nra;a
KbAk; .
,e; j mbg; gilfsp w; gy Vw; fdNt
murhq; fj; jpdhy; Kd; itf; fg; gl; l nfhs; if
Mtdq; fsp w; ifg; gw; wg; gl; Ls; sd.
,Jcz;ikapy; tlf;F kw;Wk; fpof;fpw;F
xJf; fg; gl; l nryTfsp d; $up a
mjpfupg; gpypUe; J njupfpd; wJ Nghd; W> NkYk;
gy eltbf; iffs; eilKiwg; gLj; jg; gl; L
tUk; mikg; gp y; cs; sd. Mdhy;
Aj; jj; jpd; gpd; dhd eP z; l fhyg; nghUshjhu
mgptpUj; jpf; F khWjiy vjpu; ghu; f; Fk;
njspthd ,ilf; fhy nfhs; if ,yf; Ffs;
cldb kP l; G Kaw; rpfSf; F mg; ghy; ,Uf; f
Ntz;Lk;. Aj;jj;jpd; gpd; njhlu;e;J tUk;
tUlq;fspy; ehLfs; kPsf; fl;bnaOg;gg;
gl;L Ntfkhf tsu;r;rpailar; nra;fpd;w
ftu; r; rpahd ngWNgwhd ]; jpuj; jd; ikAld;
$ba tsu;r;rpapd; xU cghaKiwia
,izf;Fk; MNuhf;fpakhd ,ilf; fhy
ghupa nghUshjhuf; fl; likg; G ,y; yhik>
vjpu; fhyj;jpy; epiy epWj;j Kbahjjhf
Mf; fp tplyhk; .
= yq;fh 2009 d; tuT nryTj; jpl;l
vjpu; ghu; g; ghd nkh.c.c. apd; 7 E}w; W tP jj;
Jz; L tP o; r; rp tUl ,Wjpapy; mile; Js; s
nkh.c.c. apd; 9.8 E}w; W tP j ,yf; fj; Jf; F
tp up tiljYld; rkhsp g; G Kaw; rp ap y;
,Uf; ifap y; xU ek; gfkhd ghup a
nghUshjhuf; nfhs;iff; fl;likg;gpd;
Njit kpf cz; ikahdJ. mJ xU
nghUshjhug; gpd;diltpd; kj;jpapy; tup
tUkhdq; fspd; tP o; r; rpia xU ghfkhfTk; >
cs; ehl; L ,lk; ngau; e; j kf; fspd;
(nkh.c.c. fspd;) Gzu;tho;T kw;Wk;
kP s; FbNaw; wk; Nghd; wit njhlu; ghd
nrytpdj; Njitfs; xU ghfkhfTk;
cau ; tile; jik vd tp sf; fk;
nfhLf; fyhk; . Kf; fpakhf ,j; jifa epjpf;
fl; Lg; ghLfs; mLj; j rpy tUlq; fspy; ghupa
nghUshjhuj; Jf; fhd rthy; fs; ngUksT
rpf;fyhditahf ,Uf;Fnkd;gjw;F xU
Qhgf%l; lyhFk; . cau; tsu; r; rpf; F Aj; j
Mgj; Jfisf; Fiwg; gjw; fhd ngUk; ghyhd
xU epge; jidahjyhy;
,e; j eilKiwapy; ]; jpuj; ; jd; ikf; F
cld; ghby; iy vd; gij cWjp g;
gLj; JtJld; Mjh u kh f gh u p a
nghUshjhuf; nfhs; if Ntz; lg; glyhk; .
njsp thf ,J tsu; r; rp f; Fk; ]; jp uj;
jd;ikf;Fk; ,ilapw; rpy gupkhw;wq;fs;
nghWg; ghf; fg; glyhk; . cz; ikapy; mij
= yq;fhtpd; Aj;jj;Jf;Fg; gpd;dhd kPl;G
eilKiwfSf; F Mjhuksp g; gjw; fhf
eLj;jug; gz tPf;fj;ijAk; tuT nryTj;
jpl; lj; Jz; L tP o; r; rpfisAk; rfpj; jy; vdTk;
fUj; Jf; nfh s; s KbAk; vJ
Kf; fp ankd; why; > xU Fiwe; jsT
Mgj;Jf;fisg; gw;wp vfhs;sf;fba xU
njspthdJk;> nghUshjhuf; nfhs;if
kWrP uikg; gpd; khw; Wf; fpukj; ijAk;
,izj;jJkhd ,ilepiyf; fhy ghupa
nghUshjhu fl; likg; ghd toya/
ghijia fz; Lgpbg; gNj MFk; .
cl; fl; likg; G KjyP L kw; Wk; kP sf;
fl; bnaKg; Gjw; nrytp dq; fSf; F
ep jp ap Ltjw; fhf tp Ltp j; jNy ep jp f;
nfhs; ifapd; Kjw; flikahFk; . ,J nghJ
epjpfis kW jpirg; gLj;Jjy;> cld;
njhlUk; Msg; gjpfpd; w nghUjhu> epUtf
kw;Wk; nfhs;if kWrPuikg;Gfspd; xU
fyitiag; gadhf mspf; fpwJ. mt; thwhd
kWrP uikg; G ,y; yhj re; ju; g; gj; jpy; =
yq; fh mjd; nghJ epjpfis xOq;F
gLj;Jjypw; jtwpiof;Fk;> mjhtJ
%yjd KjyP l; Lf; F Mjhukhf kP s tUk;
nrytpdq; fSf; F ntl; bly; . mt; thW
tisT nfhLj;jy; ,y;yhj xU ghupa
cl;fl;likg;G Kd; epw;Fk; mgptpUj;jp
Ntiyf; F fldhfg; ngWk; ep jp ia
ek;gpapUj;jy; jtpu;f;f KbahjjhFk;. ,J
ehl;bd; nghJf; fld; njhiffs; kw;Wk;
iv
mjDld; ,ize;j ghupa nghUshjhu
];jpuj; jd;ikf;fhd Mgj;JfSk; xd;W
jpuStjw;F top tFg;gJ kl;Lkd;wp =
yq;fhtpd; mgptpUj;jp Kd;DupikfSf;F
vjpu; T $wf; $ba mbg; gilapy; Njitahd
epjp toq; fy; ,y; iynadTk; fUj; Jg; gLk; .
nghUshjhu kWrP uikg; GfSf; fhd tpupthd
jpl;lk; ,y;yhik ,d;DnkhU fPo;Nehf;F
tp isitf; nfhs; Sk; . re; Njfkp d; wp
Mgj; jhd cl; fl; likg; Gj; jp l; lj;
njhiffspy; KjyP L nra; jy; xU tsu; r; rp
NkNyh q; fiyr; Rygkh f; Fk; .
cl; fl; likg; Gr; nryTfs; nghJr;
nrhj; Jfis cUthf; FtJ kl; Lkd; wp
gzj; ij mjd; vy; yhg; ngUf; fk;
tp isTfSlDk; nghUshjhuj; jp Dw;
js; Sk; . vt; thwpUg; gpDk; mt; thwhd xU
tsu; r; rpf; fpukk; eLepiyf; fhyj; Jf; fg; ghy;
jhq;fp epw;gjw;F nghUshjhuj;jpd; KO
nkhj; j cw; gj; jpj; jpwd; Kd; Ndw Ntz; Lk; .
Kd;Ndw;wkhd cl;fl;likg;Gld; tUk;
Fiwe;j nrytpdq;fs; Nghf;Ftuj;jpy;>
vupnghUspy; nra;jpg; Nghf;Ftuj;Jfspy;
epWtdq;fs; NkYk; rfhakhditahf
,Ug; gjw; F cjt KbAk; . Mdhy;
nghUshjhuj;jpy; KO nkhj;j cw;gj;jpj;
jp wiz cau; j; Jtjw; F> cw; gj; jp f;
fhuzpfspd; xJf; fP Lfspy; Kd; Ndw; wj; ijAk;
Ntz;b epw;Fk;. mj;jifa nghUshjhur;
rP u; jp Uj; jq; fsp D}lhd Kd; Ndw; wq; fs;
,y; yhikapdhy; = yq; fhtpd; tsu; r; rpapd;
msT Fiwthf ,Uf; Fnkd; gNjhL toq; fw;
gf; f fz; bg; GfSf; F vjpuhfg; nghUshjhuk;
tUifapy; mjpfupj; j khWgLk; epiyikf; F
cs;shfyhk; vd;w ftiyahdJ> xU
tpupthd kWrP uikg;G Kaw;rp ,y;yhj
epiyapy; Kd; Ndw; wg; gl; l cl; fl; likg; G
toq;fy;> ehl;il mJ tiu nfhz;L
nry; YNkad; wp mjw; fg; ghy; my; y.
murhq; fj; Jf; Ff; fpilj; Js; s gyj; j
mu rp ay; Mizah dJ> ,e; j
kWrP uikg; Gfspw; rpytw; iw Kd; ndLj; Jr;
nry; tjw; F = yq; fhtpw; F xU kpfr; rupahd
tha; g; G cs; sJ vd; gij vLj; Jf;
fhl;LfpwJ. jpiwNrupapd; epjpr; Rikia
,yFthf; Ftjw; fhf mur ]; jhgdq; fis
kP sf; fl; bnaOg; Gjy; > njhopw; re; ijiar;
rPuhf;Ftij kW rPuikg;gjw;fhf njhopy;
cw;gj;jpf;fhd xU ftu;r;rpahd #oiy
mikj; jy; > etP d kakhfp tUk;
nghUshjhuj; jjp d; Njitfis vjp u;
Neh f; Ftjw; fh fj; ju j; ijAk;
nghUj; jj; ijAk; fy; tp toq; fiyAk;
Kd; Ndw; Wtjw; fhf fy; tp j; Jiwr;
rP u; jpUj; jq; fs; > Mfpad ftdQ; nrYj; jg;
gl Ntz; ba rpy gFjpfshFk; . = yq; fhtpd;
fkj; njhop y; nghUshjhuj; jp d;
RWRWg; igAk; cw; gj; jp j; jp wizAk;
njhLfpd;w NkYk; rpf;fyhdJk; murpaw;
rp f; fy; fSk; cs; s g Fjp fSk;
,Uf; fpd; wd. murhq;fk; khw;W topfis
kjp g; gp l; L vJ eilKiwr; rhj; jp ak;
vd; gijj; jP u; khdp f; Fk; . vt; thwp Ue; j
NghjpYk; mJ ,ilepiyf; fhyj; jpy; mjp
Rygkhfr; nra; af; $batw; iwj;
njupe; njLj; Jk; kW rP uikg; Gf; fpukq; fisf;
fl; bnaOg; gpAk; kWrP uikg; Gf; fhd tupirf;
fpukkhd mZF Kiwia khw; wf; $lhJ.
= yq;fh jtpu;j;Jf; nfhs;s Ntz;baJ
vd; dntdpy; > jpUg; jp czu; tpy; mikjpaha;
,Ug; gjhFk; . Jup jg; gLj; jg; gl; l
cl; fl; likg; Gr; nrytpdq; fspdhw; nrYj; jg;
gl; l xU Aj; jj; jpd; gpd; dhd nghUshjhu
kP l; Gf; fl; lj; jpdhy; mLj; j rpy tUlq; fspy;
ehL 7 E}w; W tP j tUlhe; j ruhrup tsu; r; rp
tpfpjj;ij miltijf; fhz KbAk;.
Vw; fdNt eh L> 2 0 1 0 d; Kjy;
miuahz;bNyNa 7.8 E}w;W tPj [P.B.gP.
tsu; r; rp tpfpjj; ij fhl; lf; $bajha;
cs;sJ. tsu;r;rpj; Jiwapy; mj;jifa
ek; gp f; ifA+ l; Lk; nra; jp ah dJ
kWrP uikg; GfSf; fhd miog; Gfis
%o; fbj; J tplTk; KbAk; . Mdhy; tpupthd
kWrPuikg;G Kaw;rpAld; cl;fl;likg;G
mgp tp Uj; jp ap dhw; js; sg; gLtjdhw;
G+u; j; jpahf; fg; gl; l eP z; l fhy tsu; r; rpia
epWTtjw; fhd Nkilia cz; ikapNyNa
ehL mikf; Fkhapd; kpft k; jhq; ff; $ba
gpujp gyd; fis toq; Fk; .
v
xU tp Ntfkhd ep jp f; nfhs; iff;
fl; likg; ghdJ ghupa nghUshjhu ]; jpuj;
jd; ikAld; ,ize; j tsu; r; rp kP s vOtJ
epr;rag; gLj;jy; Nehf;fpy; ePz;l J}uk;
nry;Yk;. kPz;L tUk; nrytpdq;fis
khzpag; gLj; Jtjw; fhd ghupa Kaw; rpfs;
,y; yhky; mur tUkhdg; gf; fkhf
mtjhdj; ij xU Kfg; gLj; Jtjdhy; x&
msTf;F epjp ];jpuj; jd;ikia mila
KbAk; . cz; ikap y; = yq; fhtp d;
nghUshjhuk; kP l; rp ngWtNjhL mur
tUkhd cw; gj; jp rhjfkhFnkd
vjpu; ghu; f; fyhk; . 2011 MtNjhL mur
tUkhdj; ijj; jw; Nghija kl; lj; jpypUe; J
[P . B. gP . apd; 2 E}w; W tP jj; jhy; cau; j; Jk;
Nehf; Fld; Nkyjpfkhf tup tpjpg; Gf;
fl; likg; ig khzpag; gLj; jTk; tupg;
gup ghydj; ij Kd; Ndw; Wtjw; Fkhd
[dh jp gjp Mizf; FOnth d; W
epakpj; Js; sjd; %yk; murhq; fk; Vw; fdNt
eltbf; if Nkw; nfhz; Ls; sJ. xU
nghUj; jkhd tup tpjpg; G eltbf; ifs; gw; wpa
fyitia mKy; gLj; Jjy; kp fTk;
Kf; fp akhdJ. tup fis cau; j; Jjy;
tsu; r; rpiag; ghjpf; fyhk; . tsu; r; rpia kpff;
Fiwthfg; ghjpf;fyhnkd vjpu;ghu;f;ff;
$baitahtd> Efu; Tg; nghUl; fs; kP Njh
my; yJ fhzp Nghd; w mirahj nrhj; Jf; fs;
kP Njhthd tupfshFk; .
vt; thwpUe; j NghjpYk; mtw; wpd; tho; f; ifr;
nrytpdk; kP jhd cldb kw; Wk; gpd; dilTj;
jh f; fk; fh u zkh f Efu ; Nth u ;
nghUl;fSf;fhd tup vt;tsT cau;j;jg;
glyhk; vd;gjw;F vy;iyfs; cz;L.
Kd;Ndw;wg; gl;l mur tUkhd cw;gj;jp
ep jp f; FiwghLfis ep tu; j; jp ahf; f
cjTNkah ap d; > Nkw; $wg; gl; l
fhuzp fshy; > mJ xU gFjp ahfNt
,Uf; Fk; . mbg; gilapy; rtupd; fldpD}lhf
nghUshjhuj; jp y; mur KjyP l; L
%yjdj; ijNa ek; gpAs; s mgptpUj; jp
cghankhd; iw ,d; Dk; murhq; fj; Jf; Fj;
jahupf;f KbAk;. = yq;fhTf;F tsu;r;rp
cau; it Nehf; fp a nghUshjhuj;
Njitfspd; mbg; gilapyhd mur %yjdk;
Kd; epw;Fk; cl;fl;likg;G Kaw;rpahdJ
fzprkhd gq; fspg; igr; nra; ayhk; vd; gjpw;
rpW re; Njfk; cs; sJ. tpthjpf; ff; $bajhf>
cau; tsu; r; rpahdJ mur fld; Rikiaf;
Fiwf; fpd; wJ vd; w gbAk; > mjid epahag;
gLj;jyhk; vd;gJld; $ba mur tup
tUkhdj;ijf; nfhz;L te;J murhq;f
ep jp aP Lfis khzp ag; gLj; Jjiy
,yFthf; fTk; $Lk; . nfhs; ifastpy; fld;
thq; fp tpNtfkhd Kiwapy; nryT nra; Ak;
murhq;fq;fs; gpujp gyd;fis mWtil
nra; a KbAk; . Mdhy; eilKiwapw; gy
mgptpUj;jp mile;J tUk; ehLfSf;Fg;
ghupa nghUshjhu ]; jpukpd; ikf; F kj; jpapy;
mur fld; Kfhikj; Jtk; ,Ue; Js; sJ.
Vida fP o; Nehf; F Mgj; Jf; fSk; cs; sd.
Aj; jj; jp d; gp d; dhd xU njsp thd
nghUshjhu kPl;Gj; je;jpukhdJ jdpahu;
%yjdj;ij kP s tutiof;Fk;. ,jd;
fUj;jhtJ murhq;ff; fld; thq;fy;fs;>
jdpahu; %yjdq; fs; Ftpjiy mDkjpf; f
KbahJ. mJ vjpu;fhy tsu;r;rpiaAk;
jho; j; Jk; . Ftp ayhtjd; ghjp g; igr;
rkg;gLj;j ehL epjpaPl;Lj; Njitfspd;
ngUk; ghfj; ij ntspehl; Lf; fld; thq; fy;
%ykhf khw; wyhk; . ngUksT ntspehl; L
rtupd; fld; fSf; Fj; jpwtyhf ,Ug; gjd;
Mgj; Jfs; ed; F njupe; jNj. ntspehl; Lf;
fld; fs; mtw; Wld; > Nkyjp fkhd
ntspehl; L ehza khw; W tpfpj Mgj; Jfs;
kw; Wk; ntsp ehl; Lg; nghUshjhu
epiyikfspd; fP o; Nehf; Fk; mjpu; r; rpfspdhw;
ghjpf; fg; glf; $ba jd; ikiaAk; nfhz; L
tUfpd; wd.
FWfp a fhy ntsp ehl; L %yjd
vjp u; ghu; g; Gfs; vt; tsT ngup aNjh
mt; tsTf; F ghupa nghUshjhu epiyaw; w
jd; ik ngupajhff; $ba Mgj; J ,Uf; Fk; .
2009 Mk; Mz;by; = yq;fh nghJ tupg;
gz KjyP l; L ,ilntsp epug; GjYf; fhfj;
jp iwNrup cz; bay; fsp Yk; fld;
gj; jpuq; fspYk; ntspehLfs; %yjdk;
nra; tij ngUkstp y; ek; gp ap Ue; jJ.
mj; jifa %yjdq; fs; te; jiltJ
rhj; jpakhtjpy; KjyP l; lhsu; Mgj; Jfspd;
vi
Kjy; milahsq;fs; ed;F njupe;jNj.
ehl; bd; ntspehl; Lf; fld; nrYj; jw;
Nritf;F Vw;Wkjpfs; vd;w tpfpjhrhuk;
tsUk; NghJ 2006 f; Fk; 2009 f; Fk;
,ilapy; 7.1 E}w;W tPjkhf ,Ue;J 14.6
E}w;W tPjkhf ,ul;bg;ghfpa ntspehl;Lf;
fld; Nritf; flikfis Rygkhd
kl; lj; jpy; itj; jpUg; gij ,aYkhf; Ftjw; F
Vw; Wkjp ciog; Gfs; Kd; nry; tij cWjpg;
gLj;jpf; nfhs;tNj kpfg; ghJfhg;ghd
khu; f; fkhFk; . ,jw; F> kP z; Lk; = yq; fhtpd;
Vw; Wkjpj; Jiwapd; cw; gj; jpj; jpwizAk;
RWRWg;igAk; cauj;Jk; kWrPuikg;Gj;
Njitg; gLk; .
Vw;Wkjp mgptpUj;jpf;F Mjhukspf;f xU
ghupa nghUshjhur; #oYk; Mgj;jhdJ.
cl; nrYj; jg; gLk; ntsp ehl; Lr;
Nrkp g; GfSk; ehl; bd; ehza khw; W
tpfpjj; jpd; kP J Nky; Nehf; Fk; mOj; jj; ijf;
nfhLf; fpd; wd. kW Gwkhf Nkyjpf %yjd
cl; nrYj; jy; fis cwpQ; rp vLg; gjw; fhf
ntspehl;L ehza khw;Wr; re;ijapy;
CLWty; cs; ehl;L epjp mbj;jsj;ij
gyg; gLj; jp ,ilf; fhy kw; Wk; eP z; l fhy
tp iy ]; jp uj; jd; ikia cWjp g;
gLj; Jtjw; F vjpnuhypahf< xU tpNtfkhd
epjpf; nfhs; if mtrpakhfpwJ.
tp ahghuj; njhlu; GfSf; F Xukhd
Kf; fpaj; Jtk; > mgptpUj; jp mile; J tUk;
ehLfspd; ed; kjpg; ig ek; gpapUj; jy; Mfpa
epge; jidfSld; fl; lg; gl; L te; j [P . v]; .
gP. gps];rYifia INuhg;gpa xd;wpak;
(<. A+.) thg]; ngw; wjhy; ; = yq; fh ghlq;
fw;Wf; nfhz;lNjhL> Kd;DupikNahL
re; ijia mZFk; rYifahdJ xU ghupa
nrytp d; wp ; tUtjp y; iy. vd; gijAk;
czu; e; J nfhz; lJ mj; jifa fLk;
epge; jidAld; $ba mZF KiwahdJ
Aj;jj;jpd; gpd;dhd kPl;G NtiyfSf;F
cjtp toq; Fk; ehLfs; > rhjfkhd
nghUshjhu kPl;rpf;F Cf;fkspg;gNjhL>
ve; j tifapYk; kP z; Lk; Aj; jk; ,lk; ngWk;
Mgj;ij cau;j;Jk; eltbf;iffisj;
J}z; bg; ghjfq; fis tpistpf; fhJ vd; w
nfhs; iff; F vjpuhfr; nry; yf; $Lk;
vd; wp Uf; ifap y; > ve; jr; re; ijap Yk;
Nghl;bapLtjw;fhf Vw;Wkjpj; Jiwf;F
mbf;fy; ehl;Ltjd; Nju;T = yq;fhtpd;
kP J cs; sJ. ,J Kd; Ndw; wg; gl; l
cl;fl;likg;G> tisT nfhLf;ff; $ba
njhop w; re; ijfs; > Kd; Ndw; wg; gl; l
njhopyzp El; gq; fs; > xU rfhakhd
ehzakhw;W tpfpj Ml;rp Mfpatw;iw
cs; slf; FtJ kl; Lkd; wp> xU NkYk; rpwe; j
Ml; rpf; fhd epWtff; fl; likg; igAk; gyg;
gLj; Jfp wnjdTk; nghUs; gLfp wJ.
ntspg;gilj; jd;ikAk; nghWg;Ngw;Fk;
jd;ikAk; - mJ KjyPl;lhsu; kw;Wk;/
my; yJ tup nrYj; JNthu; njhlu; ghf
,Uf; fl; Lk; - ehl; bd; ek; gfj; jd; ikiag;
gyg; gLj; JtNjhL; mjd; mjp fhuk;
Fiwj; Jf; fzf; fp lg; gLtijAk;
vj; jidNah topfspw; jLf; fpwJ.
,t; thwhf xU Aj; jj; jp d; gp d; dhd
mgptpUj; jp Kaw; rpia top elj; Jtjw; fhd
,izg; nghUl;fs; gy cs;sd. ,e;j
tUlj;jpd; nghUshjhuj;jpd; epiyik
mwpf;ifahdJ xU Aj;jj;jpd; gpd;dhd
nghUshjhu mgp tp Uj; jp Kaw; rp ap d;
rthy;fis vjpu; nfhs;tjpy; = yq;fh
Kfq; nfhLf;Fk; Nkw;gbf; nfhs;ifg;
gp ur; rp idfs; gytw; wp d; Muk; gj;
NjLjy;fSf;F mjid mu;g;gzpf;fpwJ.
mtw;wpy; Muk;g epiyapy; cs;sjhtJ>
ehlshtpa uP jpapy; r%f nghUshjhu
meP jq; fSf; fhd nfhs; iff; ftiyfspd;
xU FWf;F ntl;L kjpg;gPl;il vLj;J
,ilntsp epug;GjyhFk;.
tlf; F kw; Wk; fpof; fpd; Kd; djhfNt
Aj; jj; jpdhw; ghjpf; fg; gl; l gpuhe; jpaq; fspd;
ek;gfkhd jfty;fs; ,y;yhik mJ
kf; fw; nrupTg; Nghf; Ffs; > cw; gj; jp> nrhj; J
mbj; jhsk; > my; yJ r%f nghUjhu
epiyikfshf ,Uf; fl; Lk; - gpuhe; jpaj; jpd;
mgptpUj;jpj; Njitfs; kw;Wk; kPl;Gf;fhd
th a; g; Gfs; gw; wp a cWjp ah d
gFg;gha;nthd;iw milAk; Kaw;rpf;Fj;
jilahfp d; wJ. ,Ug; gp Dk; ep fuhd
gfp\;fupg;GfSk; NtWghLfSk; ehl;bd;
Aj; jj; jpdhw; ghjpf; fg; glhj gpuNjrq; fspYk;
vii
,Ue; j Nghjp Yk; fp l; lj; jl; l %d; W
jrhg; jq; fshf Aj; j fskhf ,Ue; j tlf; F
kw; Wk; fp of; Fg; gp uhe; jp aq; fNs
gpuj; jpNafkhd gpur; rpidfSf; F Kfq;
nfhLf; fpd; wd vd; gJ njspT.
jrhg;jq;fshf Xue; js;sg; gl;bUe;jik
tlf; F kw; Wk; fpof; F = yq; fhtpd; kpfTk;
twpa khfhzq; fshf tplg; gl; Ls; sd
vd;gij> ngwf;$bajhf cs;s rpjWz;l
jfty; fs; Rl; bf; fhl; Lfpd; wd. ,e; jf; fzg;
nghOjpd; NjitahdJ t. kw; Wk; fp. f; fpy;
r%fg; ngh Ush jh u r; #oiyf;
fl; bnaOg; GtJ kl; Lkd; wp ehl; bd; Vida
gFjpfSld; xg;gplf; $bajhf mijj;
Jupjkhfr; nra;tjhFk;. ,jd; fUj;jhtJ
Nrjkhf;fg; gl;l cl;fl;likg;ig kPsf;
fl; bnaOg; GtijAk; etP dkag; gLj; jiyAk;
nghUshjhur; Rje; jpuj; ij Kd; Ndw; Wtjd;
%yk; tWikia xop g; gijAk;
mjpu; r; rpfspdhw; ghjpf; ff; $ba jd; ikia
Kfhikj; Jtk; nra; tjw; fhfj; NjitahFk;
r%fg; ghJfhg; G tiyfis toq; FjiyAk;
fzf; fP l; Lf; F cs; shf; Fk; gy jp ir
mZFKiwiaf; ifahStjhFk; .
,jpw; gpujhd %yfk; kP sf; fl; bnaOg; Gjy;
- ghijfs; > ghlrhiyfs; > njhiyj;
njhlu;Gfs;> kpd;rhur; Nritfs; kw;Wk;
Rfhjhu trjpfs; Mfpad Nghd;w Nrjg;
gLj; jg; gl; l ngsjP f kw; Wk; r%f
cl; fl; likg; Gfis kP sf;
fl; bnaOg; Gtjh Fk; . mj; jifa
eltbf; iffs; xU Gwkhf kdpj ts
mgptpUj;jpf;fhd #oiy toq;FtNjhL
mt; thwhfNt Fiwe; j nfhLf; fy; thq; fw;
nrytpdq; fspdJk; jdpahu; %yjdq; fSf; F
Kd;Ndw;wkhd ngWNgWfspdJk; Clhf
KjyP LfisAk; Cf; Ftpf; fpd; wJ.
ghuk; gupa tho; f; ifr; nryT eilKiwfSk;
tlf; F kw; Wk; fp of; fp d; ; ,aw; if
tsq; fisAk rhjfq; fisAk; vLf; Fk; El; g
mwpTfs; ahTk; jrhg; j fhykhf Aj; j epiy
epytpajd; fhuzkhf iftplg; gl;lNjhL
gpuNjrj; jpd; kpfTk; cw; gj; jpahFk; tsq; fs;
ahTk; Aj;j Kaw;rpapd; gf;fkhfj; jpir
jpUg; gg; gl; ld> jhq; ff; $ba mgptpUj; jpf; F
tlf;F kw;Wk; fpof;fpy; cs;s kf;fs;>
mtu; fspd; ,aw; if mD$yq; fisg; ngwf;
$bajhfTk; > nghUshjhu uP jp ap w;
Rje; jpukhfTk; ,Uj; jy; mj; jpahtrpakhfpwJ.
,ij miltjw;F cy;yhrg; gpuahzj;
Jiw> kP d; gpbj; njhopy; > tptrhak; > Vida
ifj; njhop y; fs; cw; gl; l ghuk; gup a
[P tNdhghaq; fSf; Fg; Gj; Jap usp f; f
mtu; fSf; F cjtp mspf; fg; gl Ntz; Lk; .
jpwikg; gapw;rp> cs;Su; nrhj;Jf;fisg;
gu h ku p j; jy; > fld; fs; ngWjiy
Kd; Ndw; Wjy; > cw; gl tpjtpjkhd topfspy;
cjtp Njitg; gLfpwJ.
ePz; l fhy Aj; jkhdJ gpuNjrj; jpy; cs; s
kf; fsp d; r%f cl; fl; likg; G kw; Wk;
ek; gpf; iffisAk; gOJ gLj; jpaJ. tlf; F
kw;Wk; fpof;fpy; cw;gj;jp mbj;jsj;ij
mgptpUj;jp nra;aTk;> ,e;j Aj;jj;jpdhw;
rpijtile;j gpuNjrq;fspw; Nrjkile;j
r%ff; fl; likg; gf; fis kP sf; fl; bnaOg; g
cjtp nra;aTk; rKjhak; Kd; epw;Fk;
mZFKiwia Cf; Ftp g; gjw; fhd
Kaw; rpfs; Kd; itf; fg; glNtz; Lk; .
[P tNdhghaj; ijj; jhz; br; nrd; W cw; gj; jp
kpf;f kf;fshfTk; Gjpa tha;g;Gfisg;
gp uNahrdg; gLj; jp f; nfhs; s
KbAkhdtu; fshfTk; Mff; $ba tifapy;
t. kw; Wk; fp. f; Fg; gpuhe; jpa kdpj tsq; fs;
tpUj; jp nra; ag; glNtz; Lk; . ,J njhlu; ghfr;
Nrit toq; fyp w; jw; NghJ cs; s
,ilntspfis epug; Gjy; > Neha; j; jLg; G
Mtuzq; fis Kd; Ndw; Wjy; >
ghlrhiyfsp yp Ue; J ,ilep iyap y;
ntspNawpa khztu; fSf; F ,uz; lhtJ
re; ju; g; gj; ij toq; Fjy; vd; gz Kf; fpakhFk; .
mNj Ntis Jg; GuNtw; ghl; by; Gjpa mgptpUj; jp
mD$yq; fis kf; fs; ngw; Wf; nfhs; sf;
$ba tifap Yk; > njhop w; re; ijap w;
fpuhf; fpahfTs; s etP d jpwd; fis mile; J
nfhs; Sk; tpjj; jpYk; fy; tp kw; Wk; Rfhjhu
Nritfs; etP d kag; gLj; jg; gly; Ntz; Lk; .
,e; j mwpf; ifapy; vQ; rpAs; s gFjp ahzj>
xU mj;jpahaj; njhlu; kw;Wk; nfhs;iff;
Fwpg;Gfspd; Clhf> ,e;j xd;Nwhnlhd;W
gpd; dg; gl; l gpur; rpidfis MuhAk; .
201
Prospects free download / e-version
17. Prospects
Post-conflict Sri Lanka appears comfortably
placed to experience a steady improvement
in its economic outlook. A targeted GDP
growth rate in the range of 7 per cent per
annum over the next 2-3 years seems well
within reach on the back of increased eco-
nomic activity of the previously conflict-af-
fected areas, improved investor confidence
and the multiplier effects of a large scale in-
frastructure investment drive. GDP growth
in the first half 2010 in excess of 7.5 per
cent has already signaled that a strong post-
conflict economic recovery is underway.
However, the figures have to be interpreted
with some care. For the most part, first half
GDP estimates for 2010 reflect the 'bounce-
back' effect of economic activity from a low
base in 2009 (Table 17.1).
Nonetheless, the strong rebound is promis-
ing. As the global economic recovery
strengthens - with global GDP growth firmed
up to 4.6 per cent in 2010 and 4.3 per cent
in 2011 - Sri Lanka's main export sectors stand
to benefit from stronger demand. Export earn-
ings have already picked up, recording a
growth of 13.7 per cent in earnings during
January-June 2010 compared to a contrac-
tion in earnings of 18 per cent in the same
period of 2009. Workers' remittance inflows
too have picked up sharply to US$ 1,820
million by end June 2010, as compared to
US$ 1,585 million received by end June 2009.
At the same time, Sri Lanka's import expen-
diture has grown by 42 per cent in the first
half of 2010, driven by intermediate goods
imports - particularly petroleum - and con-
sumer goods. However, despite a widening
trade deficit that has expanded by more than
108 per cent to US$ 2,845 million by end
June 2010, the outlook for the balance of
payments (BOP) performance remains posi-
tive. This is largely due to inflows on the
capital account such as foreign investment
in government debt securities, government
foreign borrowing, etc.
Table 17.1
GDP Growth (January-June)
2008 2009 2010
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 6.7 4.3 7.1
Tea 20.4 -23.4 27.1
Paddy 7.7 7.6 9.6
Industry 6.5 2.5 8.1
Textiles and garments 1.3 -1.8 4.4
Services 6.7 1.1 7.8
Wholesale & retail trade 6.0 -3.7 7.1
Transport & communications 9.6 4.8 11.7
Banking, insurance & real estate, etc. 6.8 4.6 7.2
GDP 6.6 1.9 7.8
Source: Department of Census and Statistics.
202
Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Monthly Economic Indicators, various issues.
The strengthening BOP position has exerted
upward pressure on the Sri Lankan rupee.
However, the pressure for the currency to
appreciate is not reflective of a shift in Sri
Lanka's economic fundamentals - i.e., rising
demand for the country's goods and services
in international markets. An appreciation of
the exchange rate has been dictated by the
rising volumes of foreign capital inflows -
heavily tilted towards government borrow-
ing - as opposed to the 'corrective' deprecia-
tion of a currency in line with a deteriorat-
ing current account deficit.
Such 'distortions' can impact adversely on
the competitiveness of the country's export
sector. Indeed, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka
(CBSL) has been compelled to intervene in
the foreign exchange market to prevent un-
due appreciation of the rupee. The accumu-
lation to the monetary base as a result of
intervention also has implications for price
stability. However, Sri Lanka has been spared
the prospect of any resultant inflationary pres-
sure owing to the general lackluster demand
for credit from the private sector. Credit
growth to the private sector has been slow to
pick up - recording a growth rate of only 8
per cent by end July 2010 after contracting
by more than 7 per cent over the same pe-
riod in 2009. This has been despite a steady
downward revision of interest rates as evi-
dent from Figure 17.2. The continuing high
margin between deposit and lending rates
prompted the CBSL to request a general low-
ering of lending rates by banks in order to
spur private sector credit growth.
Table 17.2
Select Economic Indicators (January-July)
2007 2008 2009 2010
Exchange rate Rs/$ 111.76 107.53 114.90 112.57
Rate of inflation % 13.3 21.9 10.4 4.2
Credit growth to private sector % 14.0 4.7 -7.2 8.1
Figure 17.1
Trade Flows (January 2009-June 2010)
U
S
$

m
n
.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Exports
2009 2010
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Imports
2009 2010
U
S
$

m
n
.
203
Figure 17.2
Trends in Inflation and Interest Rates (January 2009-September 2010)
0
5
10
15
20
25
J
a
n
F
e
b
M
a
r
A
p
r
M
a
y
J
u
n
J
u
l
A
u
g
S
e
p
O
c
t
N
o
v
D
e
c
J
a
n
F
e
b
M
a
r
A
p
r
M
a
y
J
u
n
J
u
l
A
u
g
S
e
p
2009 2010
%
AWPR AWDR CCPI
J
a
n
F
e
b
M
a
r
A
p
r
M
a
y
J
u
n
J
u
l
A
u
g
S
e
p
O
c
t
N
o
v
D
e
c
J
a
n
F
e
b
M
a
r
A
p
r
M
a
y
J
u
n
J
u
l
A
u
g
S
e
p
Notes: AWPR = Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate, AWDR = Average Weighted Deposit Rate,
and CCPI = Colombo Consumer Price Index (annual average change).
Thus, the momentum for economic recov-
ery that Sri Lanka has witnessed in the after-
math of the end to the conflict in May 2009
has been driven primarily by government
investment. Indeed, government investment
kept the economy relatively buoyant through-
out the height of the conflict and the global
economic crisis. Government investment as
a percentage of GDP rose steadily from 4.1
per cent in 2006 to 6.6 per cent in 2009,
while private investment declined from 23.9
per cent to 17.9 per cent over the same
period.
1
Table 17.3
Government Finances (January-July)
2008 2009 2010
Revenue & expenditure (% change)
Total revenue 22.7 -3.5 23.4
Recurrent expenditure 16.4 24.7 9.0
Capital expenditure 33.6 -2.8 2.7
Financing (% of total)
Domestic 71.8 90.2 75.6
Foreign 28.2 9.8 24.4
1
Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Annual Report 2009.
204
Such higher government spending had an ex-
pansionary impact. Sri Lanka's fiscal deficit
expanded from 6.9 per cent of GDP in 2007
to 9.8 per cent in 2009. An expansionary
fiscal policy stance can be excused in the
midst of shrinking aggregate demand in the
economy. As the global economic downturn
took hold, the Sri Lankan economy too be-
gan to feel the impact from mid-2008. How-
ever, as both the global and domestic eco-
nomic recovery takes effect, fiscal consoli-
dation efforts have to receive the highest pri-
ority if growth is to take place within a stable
macroeconomic environment.
Fiscal consolidation efforts to reach the esti-
mated deficit target for 2010 of 8 per cent of
GDP appear to be on track. Revenue collec-
tion has improved significantly in the period
January-July 2010 while recurrent spending
growth has been held down to 9 per cent as
compared to 24.7 per cent over the same
period in 2009 (Table 17.3). While the do-
mestic borrowing requirement to finance the
deficit has been heavy, it has been accom-
modated without igniting inflation given the
muted demand for credit from the private
sector.
The government budget for 2011 to be pre-
sented in November 2010 will give a fuller
account of the medium term fiscal policy
framework within which the government's
development initiatives - particularly its heavy
infrastructure investment drive - will be
implemented. The government appears con-
fident in meeting its fiscal consolidation
objectives in line with the Stand-By Arrange-
ment arrived at with the International Mon-
etary Fund (IMF).
With the implementation of the recommen-
dations of the Presidential Taxation Com-
mission, the revenue-to-GDP ratio is expected
to rise to 15.5 per cent in 2011 and to a
further 16.5 per cent in 2012. Enhanced rev-
enue collection and a reduction in recurrent
spending by 0.5 percentage points is expected
to see Sri Lanka recording a fiscal deficit of
6.8 per cent in 2011. This is expected to be
reduced further to 5 per cent by 2012.
2
In arriving at fiscal deficit targets, the nature
and quality of spending adjustments matter.
Rationalization to recurrent spending related
to wages and salaries, and subsidies and
transfers in particular can be linked directly
to improved efficiency. Where these are ab-
sent, fiscal consolidation per se can deliver
macroeconomic stability, but fail to harness
a more effective re-allocation of resources
and related productivity gains that will al-
low economic output to expand rapidly in a
sustainable manner.
With promised fiscal consolidation efforts
in 2011, the near term outlook for the Sri
Lankan economy is bright. While inflation
is likely to pick up in 2011, if fiscal targets
are adhered to, inflationary pressures will be
manageable. Additionally, with healthy vol-
umes of official reserves and inflows of for-
eign capital - for instance, the US$ 1 billion
Sovereign Bond and the IMF facility - Sri
Lanka can withstand any unanticipated ex-
ternal shocks and expect to maintain a fairly
stable exchange rate. A favourable macro-
economic environment and policy continu-
ity associated with a strongly entrenched
government will begin to provide investors a
sense of stability to undertake investment
decisions. Private investment will pick up
even as the government forges ahead with its
public infrastructure development drive. In
this backdrop, achieving a targeted GDP
growth rate of around 7 per cent in the near
term will not be a too onerous task.
2
www.cbsl.gov.lk
205
The greater challenge will be to transform
the economic recovery to a long term sus-
tainable path. This can be fraught with more
complex issues. A growth boom fuelled by
an infrastructure-led investment drive that
relies overtly on foreign borrowing can run
up against problems. For instance, high eco-
nomic growth can in turn fuel rapid growth
in import expenditure and raise issues of ex-
ternal debt sustainability in the medium term.
The most prudent course of action is to
strengthen the regulatory environment to at-
tract increased volumes of other forms of
foreign capital such as foreign direct invest-
ment (FDI).
For Sri Lanka to achieve and maintain a sus-
tained growth momentum of 7-8 per cent
over the long term requires a substantive in-
crease in its rate of investment, as well as
the efficiency of such investment. Even a
moderate rise in Sri Lanka's current rate of
domestic savings will not be sufficient to
bridge the savings-investment gap. FDI re-
mains the most attractive source for raising
the rate of investment in the country.
Recognizing the critical role of FDI, the gov-
ernment has initiated efforts to address con-
straints in the approval process and other
bottlenecks and 'red tape' that foreign inves-
tors might face in Sri Lanka. This includes
plans to revamp the Board of Investment
(BOI) and the incentive regime for FDI that
is currently in force. While these are laud-
able initiatives, if Sri Lanka is to raise its FDI
inflows substantively, regulatory impedi-
ments that impact adversely on the country's
investment climate - the policies, regulations
and institutions that can encourage active
private sector participation - need to be ad-
dressed. These include reforms to improve
public sector service delivery, reforms to
improve the flexibility of labour market con-
ditions, education sector reforms to enhance
the skills set of the workforce in line with
market needs, etc. These reforms are particu-
larly relevant as Sri Lanka gears to promote
itself as a hub in selected services sectors,
with the aim of drawing in FDI and FDI-
related transfer of technology and other skills.
Harnessing the rapid recovery of Sri Lanka's
post-conflict economy with a transformative
process of economic reforms holds out the
most promising outcome for sustained long
term growth. The country has made a posi-
tive start and with a prudent management of
the economy and related policy reforms, it
stands poised to reap the full economic divi-
dends of a post-conflict phase of develop-
ment.

SOE 2010: 'Policy Perspectives' (English, Sinhala, Tamil) and 'Prospects'

Diunggah oleh

Informasi Dokumen

Hak Cipta

Format Tersedia

Bagikan dokumen Ini

Bagikan atau Tanam Dokumen

Opsi Berbagi

Apakah menurut Anda dokumen ini bermanfaat?

Apakah konten ini tidak pantas?

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

SOE 2010: 'Policy Perspectives' (English, Sinhala, Tamil) and 'Prospects'

Diunggah oleh

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

SRI LANKA

State of the Economy

Anda mungkin juga menyukai

SOE 2010: &#39;Policy Perspectives&#39; (English, Sinhala, Tamil) and &#39;Prospects&#39;

Diunggah oleh

Informasi Dokumen

Hak Cipta

Format Tersedia

Bagikan dokumen Ini

Bagikan atau Tanam Dokumen

Opsi Berbagi

Apakah menurut Anda dokumen ini bermanfaat?

Apakah konten ini tidak pantas?

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

SOE 2010: &#39;Policy Perspectives&#39; (English, Sinhala, Tamil) and &#39;Prospects&#39;

Diunggah oleh

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

SRI LANKA

State of the Economy

Anda mungkin juga menyukai

SOE 2010: 'Policy Perspectives' (English, Sinhala, Tamil) and 'Prospects'

SOE 2010: 'Policy Perspectives' (English, Sinhala, Tamil) and 'Prospects'