2.
3.
Be able to compute and interpret the expected value, variance, and standard deviation for a discrete
random variable.
4.
Be able to compute and work with probabilities involving a binomial probability distribution.
5.
Be able to compute and work with probabilities involving a Poisson probability distribution.
6.
Solutions:
5-1
Chapter 5
1.
a.
b.
c.
Outcome
(H,H)
(H,T)
(T,H)
(T,T)
2.
Values of x
2
1
1
0
d.
a.
b.
c.
Continuous
3.
b.
c.
Experimental Outcome
Value of N
4.
5.
x = 0, 1, 2, . . ., 12.
a.
b.
Experimental Outcome
Number of Steps Required
6.
a.
values: 0,1,2,...,20
discrete
b.
values: 0,1,2,...
discrete
c.
values: 0,1,2,...,50
discrete
values: 0 x 8
continuous
d.
e.
(1,1)
2
(1,2)
3
values: x > 0
5-2
(1,3)
4
(2,1)
3
(2,2)
4
(2,3)
5
continuous
7.
a.
8.
b.
c.
d.
a.
x
1
2
3
4
f (x)
3/20 = .15
5/20 = .25
8/20 = .40
4/20 = .20
Total 1.00
b.
f (x)
.4
.3
.2
.1
x
1
c.
9.
a.
Age
6
7
8
9
Number of Children
37,369
87,436
160,840
239,719
f(x)
0.018
0.043
0.080
0.119
5-3
Chapter 5
10
11
12
13
14
286,719
306,533
310,787
302,604
289,168
2,021,175
0.142
0.152
0.154
0.150
0.143
1.001
b.
f(x)
.16
.14
.12
.10
.08
.06
.04
.02
x
c.
6 7
f(x) 0 for every x
10 11 12 13 14
f(x) = 1
Note: f(x) = 1.001 in part (a); difference from 1 is due to rounding values of f(x).
10. a.
x
1
2
3
4
5
f(x)
0.05
0.09
0.03
0.42
0.41
1.00
x
1
2
3
4
5
f(x)
0.04
0.10
0.12
0.46
0.28
1.00
b.
5-4
c.
d.
e.
Senior executives appear to be more satisfied than middle managers. 83% of senior executives have
a score of 4 or 5 with 41% reporting a 5. Only 28% of middle managers report being very satisfied.
11. a.
Duration of Call
x
1
2
3
4
f(x)
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.25
1.00
b.
f (x)
0.30
0.20
0.10
x
0
c.
f (x) 0 and f (1) + f (2) + f (3) + f (4) = 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.25 + 0.25 = 1.00
d.
f (3) = 0.25
e.
12. a.
b.
Yes; f (x) 0 for all x and f (x) = .15 + .20 + .30 + .25 + .10 = 1
P(1200 or less) = f (1000) + f (1100) + f (1200)
= .15 + .20 + .30 = .65
13. a.
Yes, since f (x) 0 for x = 1,2,3 and f (x) = f (1) + f (2) + f (3) = 1/6 + 2/6 + 3/6 = 1
b.
c.
14. a.
5-5
Chapter 5
c.
15. a.
x
3
6
9
f (x)
.25
.50
.25
1.00
x f (x)
.75
3.00
2.25
6.00
E (x) = = 6.00
b.
x-
-3
0
3
x
3
6
9
(x - )2
9
0
9
(x - )2 f (x)
2.25
0.00
2.25
4.50
f (x)
.25
.50
.25
4.50 = 2.12
16. a.
y
2
4
7
8
f (y)
.20
.30
.40
.10
1.00
E(y) = = 5.20
b.
y-
-3.20
-1.20
1.80
2.80
y
2
4
7
8
(y - )2
10.24
1.44
3.24
7.84
y f (y)
.40
1.20
2.80
.80
5.20
(y - )2 f (y)
2.048
.432
1.296
.784
4.560
f (y)
.20
.30
.40
.10
Var ( y ) = 4.56
= 4.56 = 2.14
17. a/b.
x
0
1
f (x)
.10
.15
x f (x)
.00
.15
x-
-2.45
-1.45
5-6
(x - )2
6.0025
2.1025
(x - )2 f (x)
.600250
.315375
2
3
4
5
.30
.20
.15
.10
.60
.60
.60
.50
2.45
- .45
.55
1.55
2.55
.2025
.3025
2.4025
6.5025
.060750
.060500
.360375
.650250
2.047500
E (x) = = 2.45
2 = 2.0475
= 1.4309
18. a/b.
x
0
1
2
3
4
Total
f (x)
0.04
0.34
0.41
0.18
0.04
1.00
xf (x)
0.00
0.34
0.82
0.53
0.15
1.84
E(x)
x-
-1.84
-0.84
0.16
1.16
2.16
(x - )2
3.39
0.71
0.02
1.34
4.66
(x - )2 f (x)
0.12
0.24
0.01
0.24
0.17
0.79
Var(x)
y
0
1
2
3
4
Total
f (y)
0.00
0.03
0.23
0.52
0.22
1.00
yf (y)
0.00
0.03
0.45
1.55
0.90
2.93
E(y)
y-
-2.93
-1.93
-0.93
0.07
1.07
(y - )2
8.58
3.72
0.86
0.01
1.15
(y - )2 f (y)
0.01
0.12
0.20
0.00
0.26
0.59
Var(y)
c/d.
e.
The number of bedrooms in owner-occupied houses is greater than in renter-occupied houses. The
expected number of bedrooms is 1.09 = 2.93 - 1.84 greater. And, the variability in the number of
bedrooms is less for the owner-occupied houses.
19. a.
b.
c.
The expected value of a 3 - point shot is higher. So, if these probabilities hold up, the team will
make more points in the long run with the 3 - point shot.
20. a.
x
0
400
1000
2000
4000
6000
f (x)
.90
.04
.03
.01
.01
.01
1.00
5-7
x f (x)
0.00
16.00
30.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
166.00
Chapter 5
E (x) = 166. If the company charged a premium of $166.00 they would break even.
b.
Gain to Policy Holder
-260.00
140.00
740.00
1,740.00
3,740.00
5,740.00
f (Gain)
.90
.04
.03
.01
.01
.01
(Gain) f (Gain)
-234.00
5.60
22.20
17.40
37.40
57.40
-94.00
E (gain) = -94.00. The policy holder is more concerned that the big accident will break him than
with the expected annual loss of $94.00.
21. a.
b.
c.
Executives:
2 = (x - )2 f(x) = 1.2475
Executives:
= 1.1169
22. a.
The senior executives have a higher average score: 4.05 vs. 3.84 for the middle managers. The
executives also have a slightly higher standard deviation.
E (x) = x f (x) = 300 (.20) + 400 (.30) + 500 (.35) + 600 (.15) = 445
The monthly order quantity should be 445 units.
b.
23. a.
Cost:
445 @ $50 = $22,250
Revenue: 300 @ $70 = 21,000
$ 1,250 Loss
Laptop: E (x) = .47(0) + .45(1) + .06(2) + .02(3) = .63
Desktop: E (x) = .06(0) + .56(1) + .28(2) + .10(3) = 1.42
b.
c.
24. a.
From the expected values in part (a), it is clear that the typical subscriber has more desktop
computers than laptops. There is not much difference in the variances for the two types of
computers.
Medium E (x) = x f (x)
= 50 (.20) + 150 (.50) + 200 (.30) = 145
Large: E (x) = x f (x)
= 0 (.20) + 100 (.50) + 300 (.30) = 140
5-8
Medium preferred.
b.
Medium
x
50
150
200
f (x)
.20
.50
.30
Large
y
0
100
300
f (y)
.20
.50
.30
x-
-95
5
55
(x - )2
9025
25
3025
y-
-140
-40
160
(x - )2 f (x)
1805.0
12.5
907.5
2 = 2725.0
(y - )2
19600
1600
25600
(y - )2 f (y)
3920
800
7680
2 = 12,400
F
S
F
b.
2
2!
f (1) = (.4)1 (.6)1 =
(.4)(.6) = .48
1!1!
1
c.
2
2!
f (0) = (.4)0 (.6) 2 =
(1)(.36) = .36
0
0!2!
d.
2
2!
f (2) = (.4) 2 (.6) 0 =
(.16)(1) = .16
2!0!
2
e.
f.
E (x) = n p = 2 (.4) = .8
Var (x) = n p (1 - p) = 2 (.4) (.6) = .48
.48 = .6928
26. a.
f (0) = .3487
b.
f (2) = .1937
5-9
Chapter 5
c.
d.
e.
E (x) = n p = 10 (.1) = 1
f.
.9 = .9487
27. a.
f (12) = .1144
b.
f (16) = .1304
c.
d.
e.
E (x) = n p = 20(.7) = 14
f.
28. a.
b.
4.2 = 2.0494
6
f (2) = (.33)2 (.67) 4 = .3292
2
P(at least 2) = 1 - f(0) - f(1)
6
6
0
6
1
5
= 1 (.33) (.67) (.33) (.67)
0
1
=
c.
29.
10
f (0) = (.33)0 (.67)10 = .0182
0
P(At Least 5) = 1 - f (0) - f (1) - f (2) - f (3) - f (4)
= 1 - .0000 - .0005 - .0031 - .0123 - .0350 = .9491
30. a.
b.
Probability of a defective part being produced must be .03 for each part selected; parts must be
selected independently.
Let: D = defective
5 - 10
G = not defective
1st part
2nd part
Experimental
Outcome
Number
Defective
(D, D)
(D, G)
(G, D)
(G, G)
c.
d.
31.
10!
(.09) x (.91)10 x
x !(10 x)!
a.
Yes. Since they are selected randomly, p is the same from trial to trial and the trials are
independent.
b.
c.
f (2) = .1714
f (0) = .3894
d.
32. a.
b.
.90
P (at least 1) = f (1) + f (2)
f (1) =
2! (.9)1 (.1)1
1! 1!
2! (.9)2 (.1)0
2! 0!
5 - 11
Chapter 5
33. a.
Yes; P (at least 1) becomes very close to 1 with multiple systems and the inability to detect an
attack would be catastrophic.
f(12) =
20!
(.5)12 (.5)8
12!8!
c.
E(x) = np = 20(.5) = 10
d.
= 5 = 2.24
34. a.
b.
The answer here is the same as part (a). The probability of 12 failures with p = .60 is the same as
the probability of 3 successes with p = .40.
c.
35. a.
b.
f (4) = .2182
c.
d.
= n p = 20 (.20) = 4
36.
x
0
1
2
3
f (x)
.343
.441
.189
.027
x-
-.9
.1
1.1
2.1
(x - )2
.81
.01
1.21
4.41
5 - 12
(x - )2 f (x)
.27783
.00441
.22869
.11907
2 = .63000
1.000
37.
7.497 = 2.738
38. a.
f ( x) =
3x e 3
x!
b.
f (2) =
32 e 3 9(.0498)
=
= .2241
2!
2
c.
f (1) =
31 e 3
= 3(.0498) = .1494
1!
d.
39. a.
b.
2 x e 2
x!
c.
f ( x) =
6 x e 6
x!
d.
f (2) =
22 e 2 4(.1353)
=
= .2706
2!
2
e.
f (6) =
66 e 6
= .1606
6!
f.
f (5) =
45 e4
= .1563
5!
40. a.
= 48 (5/60) = 4
3
-4
f (3) = 4 e
3!
b.
= 48 (15 / 60) = 12
10
-12
f (10) = 12 e
10 !
c.
= .1048
-4
f (0) = 4 e
0!
= .0183
5 - 13
Chapter 5
= 48 (3 / 60) = 2.4
0
f (0) = 2.4 e
0!
-2.4
= .0907
30 per hour
= 1 (5/2) = 5/2
f (3) =
(5 / 2)3 e (5 / 2)
= .2138
3!
c.
f (0) =
(5 / 2)0 e (5 / 2)
= e (5 / 2) = .0821
0!
42. a.
f (0) =
7 0 e7
= e 7 = .0009
0!
b.
71 e 7
= 7e 7 = .0064
1!
= 3.5
f (0) =
3.50 e 3.5
= e3.5 = .0302
0!
43. a.
f (0) =
100 e 10
= e 10 = .000045
0!
5 - 14
b.
101 e10
= .00045
1!
d.
44.
2.50 e 2.5
= .0821
0!
a.
b.
c.
d.
45. a.
b.
c.
f (0) =
18
= 1.5
12
1.50 e 1.5
= e 1.5 = .2231
0!
46. a.
b.
3 10 3
1 4 1
f (1) =
=
10
4
3! 7!
3 10 3
2 2 2 (3)(1)
f (2) =
=
= .067
45
10
2
5 - 15
Chapter 5
c.
3 10 3
0 2 0 (1)(21)
f (0) =
=
= .4667
45
10
2
d.
3 10 3
2 4 2 (3)(21)
f (2) =
=
= .30
210
10
4
47.
4 15 4
3 10 3 (4)(330)
f (3) =
=
= .4396
3003
15
10
48.
a.
b.
6 4
2 1
(15)(4)
f (2) = =
= .50
120
10
3
Must be 0 or 1 prefer Coke Classic.
6 4
1 2
(6)(6)
f (1) = =
= .30
10
120
3
6 4
0 3
(1)(4)
f (0) = =
= .0333
10
120
3
P (Majority Pepsi) = f (1) + f (0) = .3333
49.
r = 20, x = 2
20 32
2
0
(190)(1)
f (2) = =
= .1433
52
1326
2
b.
r = 4, x = 2
5 - 16
4 48
2 0
(6)(1)
f (2) = =
= .0045
1326
52
2
c.
r = 16, x = 2
16 36
2
0
(120)(1)
f (2) = =
= .0905
52
1326
2
d.
Part (a) provides the probability of blackjack plus the probability of 2 aces plus the probability of
two 10s. To find the probability of blackjack we subtract the probabilities in (b) and (c) from the
probability in (a).
P (blackjack) = .1433 - .0045 - .0905 = .0483
N = 60 n = 10
50.
a.
r = 20 x = 0
f (0)
20IF
40I
F
40! I
G
J b1gF
G
J
10K H
H0 JKG
H
10!50!I
10!30!K F 40! IF
=
=G
60!
H10!30!JKG
H60! JK
60I
F
G
J
10!50!
10K
H
40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31
60 59 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 51
.01
b.
r = 20 x = 1
f (1)
20IF
40I
F
G
H1 JKG
H9 JK= 20F
40! IF
10!50!I
G
H9!31!JKG
H60! JK
60I
F
G
J
10K
H
.07
c.
d.
Same as the probability one will be from Hawaii. In part b that was found to equal approximately .
07.
51. a.
11 14
2 3
(55)(364)
f (2) = =
= .3768
53,130
25
5
5 - 17
Chapter 5
b.
14 11
2 3
(91)(165)
f (2) = =
= .2826
53,130
25
5
c.
14 11
5 0
(2002)(1)
f (5) = =
= .0377
53,130
25
5
d.
14 11
0 5
(1)(462)
f (0) = =
= .0087
53,130
25
5
5 - 18
52.
n = 3, x = 0
28
0 3
56
f (0) = =
= .4667
120
10
3
P (Reject) = 1 - .4667 = .5333
b.
n = 4, x = 0
28
0 4
70
f (0) = =
= .3333
210
10
4
P (Reject) = 1 - .3333 = .6667
c.
n = 5, x = 0
28
0 5
56
f (0) = =
= .2222
252
10
5
P (Reject) = 1 - .2222 = .7778
d.
Continue the process. n = 7 would be required with the probability of rejecting = .9333
53. a/b/c.
x
1
2
3
4
5
Total
f (x)
0.07
0.21
0.29
0.39
0.04
1.00
xf (x)
0.07
0.42
0.87
1.56
0.20
3.12
E(x)
x-
-2.12
-1.12
-0.12
0.88
1.88
(x - )2
4.49
1.25
0.01
0.77
3.53
(x - )2 f (x)
0.31
0.26
0.00
0.30
0.14
1.03
Var(x)
= 1.03 = 1.01
d.
The expected level of optimism is 3.12. This is a bit above neutral and indicates that investment
managers are somewhat optimistic. Their attitudes are centered between neutral and bullish with the
consensus being closer to neutral.
54. a/b.
x
f (x)
x-
xf (x)
5 - 19
(x - )2
(x - )2 f (x)
Chapter 5
1
2
3
4
5
Total
c.
0.24
0.21
0.10
0.21
0.24
1.00
0.24
0.41
0.31
0.83
1.21
3.00
E(x)
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
4.00
0.97
0.21
0.00
0.21
0.97
2.34
Var(x)
The total risk of the stock funds is much higher than for the bond funds. It makes sense to analyze
these separately. When you do the variances for both groups (stocks and bonds), they are reduced.
55. a.
x
9
10
11
12
13
b.
E (x)
f (x)
.30
.20
.25
.05
.20
= x f (x)
= 9 (.30) + 10 (.20) + 11 (.25) + 12 (.05) + 13 (.20) = 10.65
d.
56. a.
n = 20
and
x = 3
20
f (3) = (0.04)3 (0.04)17 = 0.0364
3
b.
n = 20
and
x = 0
20
f (0) = (0.04)0 (0.96) 20 = 0.4420
0
c.
5 - 20
d.
57. a.
46.08 = 6.7882
b.
c.
= 17(.61)(.39) = 2.01
d.
= 334(.03)(.97) =3.12
58.
Since the shipment is large we can assume that the probabilities do not change from trial to trial and
use the binomial probability distribution.
a.
n = 5
5
f (0) = (0.01)0 (0.99) 5 = 0.9510
0
b.
5
f (1) = (0.01)1 (0.99) 4 = 0.0480
1
c.
d.
No, the probability of finding one or more items in the sample defective when only 1% of the items
in the population are defective is small (only .0490). I would consider it likely that more than 1%
of the items are defective.
5 - 21
Chapter 5
59. a.
b.
= 4.741 = 2.177
60. a.
b.
c.
61.
= 1.5
62.
= 10 f (4) = .0189
63.
64. a.
b.
f (3) =
33 e 3
= 0.2240
3!
f (0) = 3 e
0!
-3
= e
-3
= .0498
a.
4IF
48I
F
G
J
G
2K
H
H3 JK= 6(17296) =.0399
52I
2,598,960
F
G
H5 JK
5 - 22
b.
c.
d.
66. a.
4IF
48I
F
G
J
G
1K
H
H4 JK= 4(194580) =.2995
52I
2,598,960
F
G
J
H5 K
4IF
48I
F
G
J
G
0
HKH5 JK= 1,712,304 =.6588
52I
2,598,960
F
G
J
H5 K
1 - f (0) = 1 - .6588 = .3412
7 3
1 1
(7)(3)
f (1) = =
= .4667
45
10
2
b.
7 3
2 0
(21)(1)
f (2) = =
= .4667
45
10
2
c.
7 3
0 2
(1)(3)
f (0) = =
= .0667
45
10
2
5 - 23