Leas Europe

European Leasing Market: European Leasing Market:
State of Play and Future Outlook

Mtrahza | November 2011
Agenda
The Role of Leasing in Europe g p
Impact of the Crisis on European Leasing
Characteristics of European Market Players
Economic Outlook Economic Outlook
European Leasing Market in 2011
Concluding Remarks
Leaseurope Market Research
Th R l f The Role of
Leasing in Europe Leasing in Europe
The Role of Leasing in Europe
Results from Leaseuropes 2010 Annual Enquiry
NEW VOLUMES
Total Real Estate
Movables
Total Real Estate
Movables
224 bil
30 bil 194 bil
Leaseurope Annual Survey
OUTSTANDINGS
~252 bil
Estimated TOTAL Market
Total Real Estate
Movables
OUTSTANDINGS
LeaseuropeAnnual Survey
674 bil
203 bil 445 bil
Leaseurope Annual Survey
~767 bil
Estimated TOTAL Market
Source: Leaseurope estimates, Leaseurope 2010 Annual Survey of European Leasing
30 member associations in 27 countries reporting, figures include hire purchase products when reported by member associations
In short
Leaseurope represents ~93% of the European leasing market
In turn representing more than 1 300 finance leasing firms & In turn representing more than 1 300 finance leasing firms &
more than 700 short term rental companies
And at least 70 400 employees And at least 70 400 employees
Leaseurope represents bank-owned lessors,
captives, automotive lessors, short termrental companies, captives, automotive lessors, short term rental companies,
independent lessors, real estate lessors etc.
Source: Leaseurope 2010 Annual Survey
% of SMEs using leasing
(2011 & 2010) (2011 & 2010)
SME leasing market worth 100bn
50%
43%
in 2010 (52% of total leasing to all
European businesses)
I 2010 40 3% f SME d
30%
40%
40%
43%
In 2010, 40.3% of SMEs used
leasing versus 37.6% using a bank
loan of over 3 years
20%
30%
On average, SMEs which used
leasing invest 53% more than non-
users
0%
10%
2010 2011 users 2010 2011
Micro Small Medium
Source: Survey on the use of leasing amongst European SMEs, Oxford Economics & Leaseurope, J uly 2011
Share of total investment financed by leasing
(2010) (2010)
12.9%
20% to 25%
> 25 %
10% to 15%
15% to 20%
NA NA
< 10 %
Lease penetration is the share of total investment financed
by leasing calculated as new leasing volumes / gross fixed
capital formation (excluding residential real estate)
Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat
Share of equipment investment financed by leasing
(2010) (2010)
18.8%
20% to 25%
> 25 %
Equipment
10% to 15%
15% to 20%
NA NA
< 10 %
Lease penetration is the share of total investment financed
by leasing calculated as new leasing volumes / gross fixed
capital formation (excluding residential real estate)
Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat
Leaseuropes weight in the car sector
(2010)
Total ST rental
Leasing PR
Cars financed/purchased
5 867 283 742 976
5 124 307
units
Total ST rental
Leasing
of which:
PR
29.6%
new cars
business use
80%
62%
Portfolio/fleet
105
6
99
(bil)
Portfolio/fleet
14 470 000 532 000
units
Total ST rental Leasing
13 937 000
PR
6 0%
Based on figures reported in the 2010 Annual Survey & Leaseurope estimates; includes figures from short term rental associations
14 470 000 532 000
units
13 937 000 6.0%
Impact of the Crisis Impact of the Crisis
on European Leasing on European Leasing
Evolution of the European leasing market
N b i l % h
Lehman Brothers collapsed Lehman Brothers collapsed
New business, annual % change
European GDP by -4.3% in 2009

Lehman Brothers collapsed Lehman Brothers collapsed
15 3%
15%
25%
GDP by 1.8% in 2010
3 1%
15.3%
4.6%
-5%
5%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
%

Y
o
Y
3.1%
-25%
-15%
Total volumes Real Estate Equipment
incl. vehicles
224.0 bil 29.5 bil 194.4 bil
-35%
Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year & are
adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations from 2007 onwards
Source: Leaseurope Annual Surveys
Evolution of leasing penetration in Europe
20 countries (1999-2010) 20 countries (1999-2010)
200
9
9

=
1
0
0
140
160
180
200
s
e
d

P
R

1
9
9
80
100
120
140
N
o
r
m
a
l
i
20
40
60
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Total Equipment Real estate
Lease penetration is the share of total investment (excluding residential real estate) financed by leasing Calculated as new leasing volumes /
gross fixed capital formation for the 20 associations reporting from 99-10
Source: Leaseurope, Eurostat (GFCF)
Weak demand for financing fixed investment
60
Higher demand
0
20
40
i
n
i
o
n
s

g
e
)
40
-20
0
a
l
a
n
c
e

o
f

o
p
e
t

p
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
-80
-60
-40
B
a
(
n
80
Fixed investment Inventories & Working Cap
M&A & corp. restructuring Debt restructuring
Lower demand
Source: ECB Lending Survey J uly 2011
New equipment leasing volumes vs. equipment investment
(2007) (2007)
25%
35%
t
m
e
n
t
5%
15%
p
m
e
n
t

i
n
v
e
s
t
-15%
-5%
-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
n
g
e

i
n

e
q
u
i
p
-35%
-25%
%

c
h
a
n
%change in newleasingvolumes for equipment
Size of bubble =
size of equipment
DE FR MED. CEE
% change in new leasing volumes for equipment
leasing market ()
UK IT Benelux,
AT & CH
Nordic
New leasing volumes for equipment include vehicles
(2008) (2008)
25%
35%
t
m
e
n
t
5%
15%
p
m
e
n
t

i
n
v
e
s
t
-15%
-5%
-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
n
g
e

i
n

e
q
u
i
p
-35%
-25%
%

c
h
a
n
DE FR MED. CEE
Size of bubble =
size of equipment
UK IT Benelux,
AT & CH
Nordic
leasing market ()
(2009) (2009)
25%
35%
t
m
e
n
t
5%
15%
p
m
e
n
t

i
n
v
e
s
t
-15%
-5%
-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
n
g
e

i
n

e
q
u
i
p
-35%
-25%
%

c
h
a
n
DE FR MED. CEE
Size of bubble =
size of equipment
UK IT Benelux,
AT & CH
Nordic
leasing market ()
(2010) (2010)
25%
35%
t
m
e
n
t
5%
15%
p
m
e
n
t

i
n
v
e
s
t
-15%
-5%
-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
n
g
e

i
n

e
q
u
i
p
-35%
-25%
%

c
h
a
n
DE FR MED. CEE
Size of bubble =
size of equipment
UK IT Benelux,
AT & CH
Nordic
leasing market ()
New car leasing volumes vs. car penetration rate
(2007) (2007)
50%
60%
30%
40%
50%
r
a
t
i
o
n

r
a
t
e
%
20%
30%
C
a
r

p
e
n
e
t
r
0%
10%
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
%change in newleasingvolumes for cars
Size of bubble =
# of new cars
DE FR MED. CEE
% change in new leasing volumes for cars
# of new cars
leased
UK IT Benelux,
AT & CH
Nordic
Source: Leaseurope Annual Surveys. Based on a homogeneous sample of 26 members reporting
(2008) (2008)
50%
60%
30%
40%
50%
r
a
t
i
o
n

r
a
t
e
%
20%
30%
C
a
r

p
e
n
e
t
r
0%
10%
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
Size of bubble =
# of new cars
DE FR MED. CEE
# of new cars
leased
UK IT Benelux,
AT & CH
Nordic
(2009) (2009)
50%
60%
30%
40%
50%
r
a
t
i
o
n

r
a
t
e
20%
30%
C
a
r

p
e
n
e
t
r
0%
10%
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
Size of bubble =
# of new cars
DE FR MED. CEE
# of new cars
leased
UK IT Benelux,
AT & CH
Nordic
(2010) (2010)
50%
60%
30%
40%
50%
r
a
t
i
o
n

r
a
t
e
20%
30%
C
a
r

p
e
n
e
t
r
0%
10%
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
Size of bubble =
# of new cars
DE FR MED. CEE
# of new cars
leased
UK IT Benelux,
AT & CH
Nordic
Leased assets
Total new lease volumes per asset category, %
Real estate
2010 2007
14%
18 13%
Machines & equip
CV
Real estate
18%
18% 13%
16%
Cars
CVs
16%
ICT
Big/other
32%
6%
40%
7%
12%
56% 50%
8%
Source: 2010 & 2007 Annual Surveys. Based on a homogeneous sample of 26 members reporting
56%
Automotive
50%
Automotive
Leasing clients
New movables leasing volumes by client sector, % New movables leasing volumes by client sector, %
2010
2007
Businesses
2%
76%
4%
15%
3%
4%
Public sector
76%
18%
78%
15%
Other
% movable
leasing
volumes
% movable
leasing
volumes
Consumers
Source: 2010 & 2007 Annual Surveys. Based on a homogeneous sample of 19 members reporting
Characteristics of
European Market
Players
New business
2010 (bil)
New business
2010 (bil)
# of
European
countries
# of
European
countries
# of
European
countries
# of
European
countries
*
12.16
10 14 6 12
6.57
19 19
20 20
55
16 16
*
*
*
*
*
*
10.14
4.89
6.12
8.54 19 19
20 20
16 16
*
*
4.27
7.52 22
88
4.23
7.49 19 19
11
*
*
3 60
3.83
6.63 15 15
37 37
23 23
*
*
*
*
Source: Leaseurope 2010 Ranking Survey of Top European Leasing Companies
Companies with volumes >3 billion are shown here along with the number of countries inside Europe in which they operate inside Europe
* Companies having operations outside Europe (e.g. in 2010, DLL granted new volumes worth 7.9 bil outside Europe)
3.60 37 37
Market concentration: % of total new volumes reported in
2010 Ranking Survey 2010 Ranking Survey
All new volumes
reported
All firms
in Ranking
Likely trends:
137 bil
80
New entrants
unlikely
M&A activity
expected to
% of all new
l t d
TOP 20
60
e
p
o
r
t
i
n
g
expected to
intensify
volumes reported
80%
20
40
TOP 20
TOP 10
#

o
f

f
i
r
m
s

r
e
% of all new
volumes reported
TOP 10
0
0% 20% 40% 60% 100%
TOP 10
80%
Source: Leaseurope 2010 Ranking Survey of Top European Leasing Companies
56%
% of total new volumes reported in Ranking
Distribution channels used by partaking firms in 2010 Ranking Survey
All firms
50 60
TOP 20 firms
50
20
e
s

b
i
l

35
40
45
40
50
s

b
i
l

35
40
45
14
16
18
n
e
s
s

v
o
l
u
m
e
20
25
30
30
40
n
e
s
s

v
o
l
u
m
e
20
25
30
8
10
12
N
e
w

b
u
s
i
n
5
10
15
20
10
20
N
e
w

b
u
s
i
n
10
15
20
2
4
6
8
0
5
0
Banks Vendors
Direct
Sales
Intermed. Other
0
5
0
2
Banks Vendors
Direct
Sales
Intermed. Other
Source: Leaseurope 2010 Ranking Survey of Top European Leasing Firms
New Volumes granted
by TOP 20 (LHS)
New volumes granted
by all firms (LHS)
Number of firms using
channel (RHS)
E i O tl k Economic Outlook
Economic Outlook
Initial outlook for investment better for 2011 & 2012
Business Investment Rate, 2000 2011 Q1 Level of Business Investment, 2012F vs. 2006
100 =2006 level of Investment
24% RO
PL
23.3%
%
FR
DE
AT
SE
BG
20.7%
22%
106 EA 17
IT
BE
HU
FI
FR
19.9%
20%
103
106
DK
UK
EU-27
CZ
NL
EA-17
18%
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
GR
PT
ES
DK
Source: European Commission, Spring Economic Forecast, May 2011 Source: Eurostat, J uly 2011
EU-27 Euro area
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Economic Outlook
European investment & GDP vs total new leasing volumes
10%
15%
5%
0%
5%
10%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f
-15%
-10%
-5%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-35%
Equipment investment (EU -15 ) GDP (EU 15) Total leasing volumes
Source: AMECO, May 2011
Economic Outlook
Economic situation and expectations
(Q2 2011 & onwards)
Ongoing tensions in financial
(Q2 2011 & onwards)
EU Economic
Sentiment
YoY%
EU GDP
Ongoing tensions in financial
markets, concerns on public debt
sustainability, and a global slowdown
are a drag on European activity.
100
110
120
4% 4%
Q2 2011 EU GDP: 1.9%
Q3 EU GDP: 1.6%
80
90
100
0% 0%
The Economic Sentiment Indicator
declined in J uly & August but remained
unchanged in October, being above its
l t
60
70
long-term average.
Investment recovery may not
materialise in H2 2011.
50
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-6%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-6%
materialise in H2 2011.
Source: European Commission, IHS Global Insight
Economic Outlook
Confidence is falling
0
5
60
65
Index Index
Euro Area Confidence Indicators
-10
-5
50
55
-20
-15
40
45
30
-25
20
30
35
40
PMI, manufacturing (right)
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
-35
-30
25
30
Consumer confidence (left)
Economic Outlook
Surveys point to very weak growth in Q3 and Q4
1.0
1.5
1.0
1.5
% q/q
Euro Area Growth and Confidence
% q/q
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.5
-1.0
-0.5
-1.0
-0.5
Composite PMI, rhs
2 5
-2.0
-1.5
2 5
-2.0
-1.5
GDP
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
-3.0
-2.5
-3.0
-2.5
European Leasing European Leasing
Market in 2011
Annual growth of new leasing volumes per country g g p y
(2009/2010)
Over 10%
Members not
reporting & non -
members
0 to 5%
5 to 10%
Over 10%
0 to 5%
-10 to - 0%
-20 to - 10%
Under - 20%
-20 to - 10%
> New leasing volume growth diverges > New leasing volume growth diverges
across European regional boundaries across European regional boundaries
Growth rates are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations
Source: Leaseurope 2010 Annual Survey
p g p g
European Leasing Market
CEE leasing market - new volume growth (% YoY)
60%
20%
40%
2.1%
0%
20%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2.1%
-40%
-20%
-60%
Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year (CZ, EE, HU, PL, RO, SK, SI) & are not
adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations for 1995-2006. From 2007 onwards growth rates are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations.
CEE Leasing Market in 2010
Individual CEE market growth (2009 vs 2010)
21%
PL
-67%
-34%
17%
21%
EE
PL
4.6%
-46%
-43%
6%
7%
CZ
SK
2010
2009
(2010)
CEE i
48%
-75%
-7%
3%
SI
LV
2010
CEE region
2.1%
-72%
-48%
23%
-20%
RO
SI
-61%
-71%
-38%
-23%
HU
BG
Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year & are adjusted
for exchange rate fluctuations
Source: Leaseurope 2009 and 2010 Annual Surveys
-90% -70% -50% -30% -10% 10% 30%
New lease volumes per asset type % YoY
(H1 2011/ H1 2010)
25%
(H1 2011/ H1 2010)
Equipment Vehicles
15%
20%
25%
10 5%
11.3%
15%
20%
Total
10 1%
15%
20%
Real estate Movables
11 2%
U
E
x
c
l
.

R
U
5%
10%
10.5%
11.3%
5%
10%
10.1%
5%
10%
1.9%
11.2%
E
x
c
l
.

R
-5%
0%
-10%
-10%
-5%
0%
-10%
-5%
0%
-15%
-20%
10%
-15%
-15%
-20%
Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting from year to year & are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations
Source: 2011 Biannual Survey based on 27 members reporting
Data for BE and the NL do not split between equipment and vehicles
If figures for the newest Member Association, the ULA in Russia, are excluded, equipment volumes grew by 0,8% and vehicle volumes by 10,1%
Regional performance by asset category
N b i th l % h (H1 2011/ H1 2010) New business growth - annual % change (H1 2011/ H1 2010)
70%
80%
.

R
U
40%
50%
60%
E
x
c
l
.
10%
20%
30%
30%
-20%
-10%
0%
MED. IT Nordic
AT, BE,
NL & CH
UK FR DE
CEE*
Equipment Real estate Vehicles
-50%
-40%
-30%
Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting & are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations
Source: 2011Biannual Survey based on 27 members reporting
Data for BE and the NL do not split between equipment and vehicles
*If figures for the newest Member Association, the ULA in Russia, are excluded, equipment volumes grew by 40.1% and vehicle volumes by 23.9%
Country performance by asset category CEE cluster
N b i th l % h (H1 2011/ H1 2010) New business growth - annual % change (H1 2011/ H1 2010)
150%
90%
110%
130%
150%
30%
50%
70%
-30%
-10%
10%
SI RS CZ EE PL SK HU RO RU BG LV
-50%
Equipment Real estate Vehicles
Growth rates are calculated based on a homogenous sample of members reporting & are adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations
Source: 2011Biannual Survey
Past Expectations Expectations for H2 2011 H1 2011
New business volumes
p p
Profitability
Operating expenses
Loan loss provision & cost of risk
Anticipated change in new business
(H2 2011/ H1 2011)
On average,
d t t d
Decrease
respondents expected
an increase of
7.4%
No change
Increase
7.4%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: Business Confidence Survey, J une 2011
p p
Profitability
Operating expenses
Profitability is recovering strongly
72%of respondents expect profit
Past Expectations
Expectations for
H2 2011
H1 2011
80%
90%
100%
72% of respondents expect profit
Q2 2011
Q1 2011
50%
60%
70%
80%
e
s
p
o
n
d
e
n
t
s
Pre-tax profit (% change)
28.1% 54.9%
30%
40%
50%
%

S
u
r
v
e
y

r
e
%
Profitability ratio %
0%
10%
20%
A 09 N 09 J 10 D 10 J 11
%
34.4%
37.0%
Source: Business Confidence Survey, J une 2011; Leaseurope Index
Apr09 Nov09 J une10 Dec10 J une11
Survey date
Decrease Increase No change
p p
Profitability
Operating expenses
Expectations for
Moderate increase in operating expenditure
On average, respondents
Past Expectations
Expectations for
H2 2011
H1 2011
80%
90%
100%
Q2 2011 Q1 2011
expected an of 1.2%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Op. expenses (% change)
10.7% 6.1%
e
s
p
o
n
d
e
n
t
s
20%
30%
40%
50%
Cost / Income %
45 5% 45 3%
%

S
u
r
v
e
y

r
e
0%
10%
Sept08 Apr09 Nov09 J une10 Dec10
J une11
45.5% 45.3%
%
Source: Business Confidence Survey, J une 2011; Leaseurope Index
Survey date
p p
Profitability
Operating expenses
Past Expectations
Expectations for
H1 2011
Bad debt levels have plateaued
On average, respondents
expected of 4.25% in H2
Past Expectations
H2 2011
H1 2011
80%
90%
100%
p
Q2 2011
Q1 2011
50%
60%
70%
80%
Cost of Risk %
0.66% 0.56%
e
s
p
o
n
d
e
n
t
s
30%
40%
50%
Loan loss
provision
(% change)
%

S
u
r
v
e
y

r
e
0%
10%
20%
( g )
-25.1% -35.2%
%
Apr09 Nov09 J un10 Dec10 J un11
Source: Business Confidence Survey, J une 2011; Leaseurope Index Q2 2011
Survey date
Concluding Remarks
The leasing industry makes an important contribution to the g y p
financing of European businesses
The crisis was hard however we have bounced back and The crisis was hard, however we have bounced back and
continue to support European investment and therefore growth
We operate in a continuously changing economic climate and We operate in a continuously changing economic climate and
face many uncertainties
O f t b b i t t i th t ll t Our focus must be on business strategies that allow us to run
profitable, client-oriented operations with sustained added-value
Innovation is key to achieving this goal
Leaseurope Market Research
Leaseurope surveys & projects
2010 Annual Survey & 2011 Biannual Survey
S f O
Leaseurope Index
2010 Ranking Survey of TOP European
leasing companies
Business Confidence Survey
Interested to take part in the December
edition? Please visit www leaseurope org edition? Please visit www.leaseurope.org
Study on SMEs use of leasing at European level
For more information about Leaseuropes projects & surveys, please contact j.bucyte@leaseurope.org
European Leasing Market: European Leasing Market:
State of Play and Future Outlook
Mtrahza | November 2011

Leas Europe

Diunggah oleh

Informasi Dokumen

Hak Cipta

Format Tersedia

Bagikan dokumen Ini

Bagikan atau Tanam Dokumen

Opsi Berbagi

Apakah menurut Anda dokumen ini bermanfaat?

Apakah konten ini tidak pantas?

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

Leas Europe

Diunggah oleh

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

European Leasing Market: European Leasing Market:

State of Play and Future Outlook

European GDP by -4.3% in 2009

Anda mungkin juga menyukai