Anda di halaman 1dari 13

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE IN THE DISCLOSURE APPENDIX. U.S.

Disclosure: SBG Securities (Pty) Limited does and


seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could
affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Customers in the United States
can receive independent, third party research on the company or companies covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers
can call +27 (11) 415 4272 or email info@sbgsecurities.com to request a copy of this research.

Equity Research
SA Real Estate: Office vacancy Q1
Sector Insight
Office vacancy rates in Q1 reduced by 20bps to 11% since Q4 2013.
However the vacancy rate is still 40bps higher than Q1 2013. The most
important data point in this survey in our view was the absorption of close
to 400k sqm of space during the quarter. This is positive as this is the
same amount of space absorbed during the entire year 2013. Quarterly
absorption rates are quite volatile and perhaps seasonal, however it will be
very difficult in our view for the 2014 net absorption rate to fall below the
400k sqm for the full year.
We are mindful of the fact that according to the survey there is around
800k sqm of supply in the market. This is also consistent with Stats SA
data on plans passed. We estimate this could take around 18 months to
complete, however we think that 600k sqm of this could be absorbed,
assuming GDP growth rate of around 2%. Therefore we think the increase
over the next two years will not be more than 1.5%.
We also see signs that the supply overhang is coming to an end. The
Stats SA data shows a slow down in the plans passed. This is probably
also due to the fact that market rentals have been stagnant even though
building costs have been rising. This has made projects in the office sector
less feasible. We also believe the recent hike in interest rates could play a
factor in slowing down supply as the margin for developers will be
negatively impacted.
Sandton has experience a sharp increase in vacancy rates of 6% over the
last six months. The total vacancy rate here stands at 14% and this is
negative for Redefine and Growthpoint which have significant exposure to
the node. However this increase was due to the construction of new P-
grade buildings - we do think that there is a good chance that these are let
and that surround nodes with poorer quality stock (e.g Woodmead,
Rivonia and Illovo) will lose tenants to Sandton.
The Pretoria region is quite strong particularly in Menlyn and the
surrounding nodes. In our view, Menlyn is becoming the Sandton
equivalent in the Pretoria region. This is quite positive for Emira which has
a Pretoria bias. However we note that Centurion is experiencing high
vacancy rates which have increased over the past six months. According
to various management teams this increase has mainly been in the
Centurion CBD and areas behind the mall, which are predominantly B-
grade in nature. The A-grade vacancy rates here have decreased over the
last six months and are quite low at 7.6%.
In aggregate we think this is a slightly positive reading in that absorption
rates, while low, are stable and positive. Furthermore we think that supply
will reduce in the next two years and that we could see vacancy reductions
in the sector during 2016.

16 April 2014
Research Analysts
Vincent Anthonyrajah
vincent.anthonyrajah@sbgsecurites.com

+27 11 415 4246

















Demand holding up well, absorption strong



Equity Research 2
16 April 2014
Stable overall, but P-grade vacancy rates
rising
We are a little surprised at how stable the vacancy rates in the office sector
have been over the past year. This is despite the significant amount of supply
that has been completed during FY13. According to the SAPOA survey, there
was an increase in total space of 450k sqm during the quarter - yet the vacant
space only increased by around 20k sqm. This implies an absorption rate of
430k sqm for the quarter alone. We are a little sceptical of the absolute size,
however, given the flat vacancy trend over the past 24 months, and increasing
supply - we are comfortable with a net absorption rate of roughly 400k per
annum.
We are always a little cautious of drawing firm conclusions from the survey but
there are a few points we would make:
It could be that the survey has simply incorporated more existing buildings
that were well-let (or fully occupied) which would boost the net absorption
figure;
Furthermore it could be that a few large buildings were completed and
occupied during the quarter which would add volatility, and perhaps
seasonality to the quarterly absorption number.

Figure 1: SAPOA office vacancy rates: P-grade experienced a spike in vacancy rates due to completions

Source: SBG Securities analysis, SAPOA Office Vacancy Survey



0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
A-grade B-grade All P-grade



Equity Research 3
16 April 2014
In Figure 2 below we show our estimates of the absorption rate (as % of
existing space). Note that the absorption rate for 2014 is based on the actual
survey data for Q1 only and is not annualised. Therefore in Q1 2014 alone 2%
of total space had been absorbed. As mentioned before, quarterly absorption
is quite volatile. We would point out however that unless tenants are liquidated,
it would be almost impossible for net absorption for the year to be less than
that in Q1. This does suggest that with the current development pipelines of
circa 800k sqm (5% of existing supply, which could materialise over 18
months) around 600ksqm could be absorbed. This assumes the current run-
rate continues. Therefore we would not be surprised of the vacancy rate in
aggregate rises by less than 1.5%.
We believe this is a realistic assumption as the economic growth forecast by
Standard Bank research is not materially different to that experienced over
2012 and 2013. In other words, 600k sqm absorption every 18 months is
plausible in a 2% GDP growth scenario. It also seems a bizarre co-incidence,
but the net absorption rate is not much different to the actual real GDP growth
rate over the past four years.
Figure 2: GDP growth rate and SBG absorption rate estimate

Source: SBG Securities Research analysis, Statistics SA, SAPOA

Figure 3: Total increase in supply and net absorption

Source: SBG Securities Research analysis, Statistics SA, SAPOA


-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 E
Absorption rate (estimate) GDP growth
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 E
Increase in supply (SAPOA) Net absorption



Equity Research 4
16 April 2014
Aside - does the percentage of pre-let projects matter?
In discussions with various management teams and investors alike we have
noted that the pre-let percentage (or non-speculative developments) are used
as a gauge of the potential impact on vacancy rates. However we would point
out that this could include a level of double-counting. For example the
Discovery building that Growthpoint is developing is effectively 100% pre-let.
However we know for a fact that Discovery will be vacating its premises.
Therefore we find that the pre-let/speculative development data can be
misleading. We prefer to simply look at the total supply relative to an estimate
of net absorption.
Supply looks to have peaked
We would also point out that the supply overhang that has been a key feature
in the investment case for the office sectors seems to have peaked. We have
had 3 consecutive quarters of reduced completions (Figure 4) and in Figure 5
we see that over the last three quarters of 2013 new plans passed have also
started to reduce. Should this continue, this could point to overall vacancy
rates reducing in about 2 years time.
Figure 4: Supply momentum slowing down

Source: Stats SA, SBG Securities analysis
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Office Passed (sqm) Office complete (sqm)



Equity Research 5
16 April 2014
Figure 5: YoY change in plans passed by quarter

Source: Stats SA, SBG Securities analysis
Figure 6: Vacancy rates and building activity in the office sector

Source: Stats SA, SBG Securities analysis, SAPOA, IPD

Rental growth still stagnant - reversion risk
remains high
The one aspect which is still worrying about the office sector is that asking
rentals have remained flat for almost five years. In real terms these have
decreased. Similarly relative to construction costs, the rental rates are not
shrinking. We believe that this ties in with the slow-down in plans passed and
we think that unless asking rental growth picks up materially, we are unlikely to
see supply increasing beyond the current rate of 4%-5% of existing supply. In
fact over the next three years we think it is likely that this ratio will decrease,
given that vacancy rates are high and rental growth is non-existent.
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
Q4
2008
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2011
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2012
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0
200 000
400 000
600 000
800 000
1 000 000
1 200 000
1 400 000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
IPD Office vacancy (%, RHS) SAPOA Office vacancy (%, RHS)
Office passed Office complete



Equity Research 6
16 April 2014
Figure 7: A-grade asking rentals

Source: SBG Securities analysis, SAPOA
Another key factor which will be dampening rental rates is that vacancy rates
in very high quality space (P-grade office) have increase quickly over the past
year. We believe that in order to fill this space landlords may have to bring the
asking rates closer to the upper range of A-grade asking rentals. This will likely
place downward pressure on A-grade market rentals (or cap A-grade rental
growth).
Geographic trends
In the Johannesburg area we find that of the larger nodes Sandton has
deteriorated the most over the past six months. This is not entirely surprising
given the amount of building activity. However, the fact that most of this is P-
grade space is positive for leasing prospects and we would expect pressure on
the surrounding nodes to increase. There has been a good reduction of
vacant space in Fourways, Woodmead and the CBD - which is surprising. The
reduction in Fourways is positive for Capital Property Fund (CPL) which has
been struggling to lease properties in the area. The reductions in Bryanston
and Hyde Park are positive for Emira which has sizeable exposure to these
nodes.
Figure 8: Change in vacancy rates - six months to Q1 2014

Source: SBG Securities analysis, SAPOA
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Median asking rental Min asking rental Max asking rental
-6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00
RANDBURG
MORNINGSIDE
HYDE PARK/DUNKELD
ROSEBANK
CRESTA/BLACKHEATH to RANDPARK
CBD JOHANNESBURG
WOODMEAD
FOURWAYS
MILPARK
BRYANSTON/EPSOM DOWNS
NEWTOwN
MELROSE/WAVERLEY
BRAAMFONTEIN
PARKTOWN
ILLOVO
CONSTANTIA KLOOF
HOUGHTON/KILLARNEY
SUNNINGHILL
MIDRAND
BEDFORDVIEW
RIVONIA
GREENSTONE/EDENVALE/MODDER
SANDTON & ENVIRONS
BRUMA



Equity Research 7
16 April 2014
Figure 9: Vacancy rates

Source: SBG Securities analysis, SAPOA
Sandton is a very important node for both Redefine and Growthpoint, and this
data point may be viewed as negative for both these counters in the short-
term.

The Cape Town nodes have seen good improvements across almost all
nodes. The reductions in vacancy rates in Claremont and the Waterfront are
positive for Growthpoint.
Figure 10: Change in vacancy rates - six months to Q1 2014

Source: SBG Securities analysis, SAPOA
It is only really the CBD which has quite high vacancy rates. This has been
exacerbated by the completion of a large office tower in the Foreshore area of
the CBD.
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00
MELROSE/WAVERLEY
ILLOVO
ROSEBANK
HOUGHTON/KILLARNEY
MORNINGSIDE
MILPARK
CONSTANTIA KLOOF
CRESTA/BLACKHEATH to RANDPARK
WOODMEAD
MIDRAND
BRYANSTON/EPSOM DOWNS
PARKTOWN
RANDBURG
SUNNINGHILL
HYDE PARK/DUNKELD
BRAAMFONTEIN
SANDTON & ENVIRONS
BEDFORDVIEW
FOURWAYS
GREENSTONE/EDENVALE/MODDER
CBD JOHANNESBURG
NEWTOwN
RIVONIA
BRUMA
-3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00
WATERFRONT
CLAREMONT
PINELANDS
CBD CAPE TOWN
BELLVILLE
CENTURY CITY
RONDEBOSCH/NEWLANDS



Equity Research 8
16 April 2014
Figure 11: Vacancy rates

Source: SBG Securities analysis, SAPOA
Pretoria has also been reasonably strong, with vacancy reductions across
most of the nodes. We note the increase in vacancy rate in the Centurion area,
which is negative for Emira. However, according to the company, these
increases are in areas behind the shopping mall, closer to the CBD. This area
is a little tired and the buildings are mostly B-grade and C-grade. Emira has
most of its Centurion properties on West road (near the Gautrain station) - this
section of Centurion is experiencing good demand. Recent new developments
by Growthpoint have been well let, and the Gautrain is a strong underpin for
demand here. We would also comment that SAPOA has changed the
definition (demarcation) of the Centurion node which also adds a level of
volatility to this data point.
The areas from Menlyn to Brooklyn have experienced a good reduction in
vacancy rates. We note that the vacancy rates in these nodes are also quite
low relative to the national levels. This is positive for Emira which also has
significant exposure here.
Figure 12: Change in vacancy rates - six months to Q1 2014

Source: SBG Securities analysis, SAPOA
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00
WATERFRONT
PINELANDS
CENTURY CITY
RONDEBOSCH/NEWLANDS
BELLVILLE
CLAREMONT
CBD CAPE TOWN
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
HATFIELD
ARCADIA
LYNNWOOD/MENLO
BROOKLYN/NIEUW
MENLYN/FAERIE GLEN/ASHLEA
SUNNYSIDE
PTA EASTERN SUBURBS/ ROUTE 21
CENTURION
CBD PRETORIA
HIGHVELD TECHNOPARK &



Equity Research 9
16 April 2014
Figure 13: Vacancy rates

Source: SBG Securities analysis, SAPOA

Total returns YTD - no clear sectoral
themes
We thought it would be interesting to point out that it's not clear whether the
market has priced in any sectoral trends this year. For example Growthpoint
has significant office exposure, in Sandton (albeit very good grade) - and it is
one of the outperformers YTD. However RDF has also increased its office
exposure in Sandton and it is one of the weaker performers.
The recent corporate activity in the sector seems to be the overriding driver.
For example the activity around Delta and Rebosis has clearly been received
negatively by the market. Furthermore even though the fundamentals for
Sycom are quite weak in our view, the performance has been quite good, due
to Growthpoints recent acquisition of a stake in the company.
Figure 14:

Source: SBG Securities Research analysis, Datastream

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
SUNNYSIDE
ARCADIA
LYNNWOOD/MENLO
BROOKLYN/NIEUW
MENLYN/FAERIE GLEN/ASHLEA
HATFIELD
CBD PRETORIA
PTA EASTERN SUBURBS/ ROUTE 21
HIGHVELD TECHNOPARK &
CENTURION
-12.00% -7.00% -2.00% 3.00% 8.00% 13.00%
R:NEP(RI)
R:RES(RI)
R:AWA(RI)
R:AWB(RI)
R:ACP(RI)
R:FPT(RI)
R:EMI(RI)
R:SYC(RI)
R:GRT(RI)
R:HYP(RI)
R:SAC(RI)
JSEPROP(RI)
R:ATT(RI)
R:RDF(RI)
R:CPL(RI)
R:PMM(RI)
R:IPF(RI)
R:FFA(RI)
R:VKE(RI)
R:APF(RI)
R:DLT(RI)
R:REB(RI)



Equity Research 10
16 April 2014
Companies Mentioned (Price as of 15 Apr 2014)
Capital Property Fund (CPLJ.J, R10.37, SELL, TP R10.00)
Emira Property Fund (EMIJ.J, R14.16, BUY, TP R15.20)
Growthpoint Properties Ltd (GRTJ.J, R24.75, SELL, TP R24.60)
Rebosis Property Fund Ltd (REBJ.J, R11.32, SELL, TP R11.00)
Redefine Properties (RDFJ.J, R9.98, HOLD, TP R10.50)
Sycom Property Fund (SYCJ.J, R26.36, SELL, TP R24.10)
Please refer to Fig 14 on page 9 for all other companies mentioned
Disclosure Appendix
Important Global Disclosures
SBG Securities (Pty) Limited is the name provided to the Institutional Stock broking entity of The Standard Bank of South Africa Limited. The following analyst/s: Vincent Anthonyrajah certify, with
respect to the companies or securities under analysis, that (1) the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views about all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part
of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
SBG Securities (Pty) Limited Research Analyst receive compensation that is based, in part, on the overall firm revenues, which include investment banking revenues.
See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names.
Analysts stock ratings are defined as follows*:
Buy (B): The stocks total return* is expected to be more than 20% (or more, depending on perceived risk) over the next 12 months.
Hold (H): The stocks total return is expected to be in the range of 10-20% over the next 12 months.
Sell (S): The stocks total return is expected to be less than 10% over the next 12 months.
Restricted (R): In certain circumstances, SBGS policy and/or applicable law and regulations preclude certain types of communications, including an investment
recommendation, during the course of SBGS and/or Standard Banks Groups engagement in an investment banking transaction and in certain other circumstances.
Speculative Buy: SBG Securities may issue a Speculative Buy when the Research Analyst covering the Company is of the view that the risk/reward tradeoff is
somewhat less compelling than that of a BUY rating. These companies tend to have very high upside potential, but also a great degree of risk or uncertainty with
regard to future financial results.
Relative Three Month Ratings: SBG Securities may also assign a three-month relative call (or rating) to a stock to highlight expected out-performance (most
preferred) or under-performance (least preferred) versus the geographic and industry sector over a three (3) month period. The relative call may highlight a specific
near-term catalyst or event impacting the Company or the market that is anticipated to have a short term price impact on the equity securities of the Company.
Absent any specific catalyst the analyst(s) will indicate the most and least preferred stocks in the universe of stocks under coverage, explaining the basis for this
short term view. This three month view may be different from and does not affect a stocks` fundamental equity rating, which reflects a longer-term total absolute
return expectation.
As of 15 June 2011, SBG Securities (Pty) Limited ratings are based on (1) a stocks absolute/total return potential to its current share price and (2) the relative
attractiveness of a stocks total return potential within an analysts coverage universe**, with Buys representing the most attractive, Holds the less attractive, and Sells
the least attractive investment opportunities. In frontier markets like Kenya and Nigeria ratings may fall outside the absolute total return ranges defined above,
depending on market conditions and industry factors, for these countries a 25% and 15% threshold replace the 20 and 10% level in the Buy and Sell stock rating
definitions, respectively, subject to analysts perceived risk. The 25% and 15% thresholds replace the +10-20% and -10-20% levels in the Hold stock rating definition,
respectively, subject to analysts perceived risk.
Volatility Indicator [V]: A stock is defined as volatile if the stock price has moved up or down by 20% or more in a month in at least 8 of the past 24 months or the
analyst expects significant volatility going forward.
Analysts coverage universe weightings are distinct from analysts stock ratings and are based on the expected
performance of an analysts coverage universe* versus the relevant broad market benchmark**:
Overweight: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.
Market Weight: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months .
Underweight: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over the next 12 months.
Not Covered: SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd Equities Research does not cover the issuer or offer an investment view on the issuer or any securities related to it. Any
communication from Research on securities or companies that SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd does not cover is factual or a reasonable, non-material deduction based on
an analysis of publicly available information or consensus forecasts
*Total return is calculated as the sum of the stocks expected Capital Appreciation and expected Dividend Yield.
*SBG Securities Small and Mid-Cap Advisor stocks: Stock ratings are relative to the JSE All-Share (ALSI) index, and SBG Securities. Small, Mid-Cap Advisor
investment universe.
**An analyst's coverage universe consists of all companies covered by the analyst within the relevant sector.

SBG Securities distribution of stock ratings is:
Global Ratings Distribution as of 16 April 2014 BUY Hold Sell RESTRICTED
All Recommendations 37 38 23 2
Recommendations with investment Banking Relationships (%) 86 84 100 100





Equity Research 11
16 April 2014

*For purposes of the NYSE and NASD ratings distribution disclosure requirements, our stock ratings of BUY, HOLD, and SELL most closely correspond to Buy, Hold, and
Sell, respectively; however, the meanings are not the same, as our stock ratings are determined on a relative basis. (Please refer to definitions above.) An investor's
decision to buy or sell a security should be based on investment objectives, current holdings, and other individual factors.
SBG Securities policy is to update research reports as it deems appropriate, based on developments with the subject company, the sector or the market that may have a
material impact on the research views or opinions stated herein.
SBG Securities policy is only to publish investment research that is impartial, independent, clear, fair and not misleading. For more detail please contact the Legal and
Compliance Division of SBG Securities and request their Policies for Managing Conflicts of Interest in connection with Investment Research.
SBG Securities does not provide any tax advice. Any statement herein regarding any US federal tax is not intended or written to be used, and cannot be used, by any
taxpayer for the purposes of avoiding any penalties.
See the Companies Mentioned section for full company names.
Important Regional Disclosures
This report covers Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). All other companies were used for illustrative purposes only. We are not commenting on the investment
merit of the securities of these companies
Singapore recipients should contact a Singapore financial adviser for any matters arising from this research report.
The analyst(s) involved in the preparation of this report have not visited the material operations of the subject company () within the past 12 months.
Restrictions on certain Canadian securities are indicated by the following abbreviations: NVS--Non-Voting shares; RVS--Restricted Voting Shares;
SVS--Subordinate Voting Shares.
Individuals receiving this report from a Canadian investment dealer that is n ot affiliated with SBG Securities (Proprietary) Limited ( SBG Securities) should be
advised that this report may not contain regulatory disclosures the non-affiliated Canadian investment dealer would be required to make if this were its own report.

As of the date of this report, SBG Securities does not act as a market maker or liquidity provider in the equities securities that are the subject of this report.
Principal is not guaranteed in the case of equities because equity prices are variable.
Commission is the commission rate or the amount agreed with a customer when setting up an account or at any time after that.
Taiwanese Disclosures: This research report is for reference only. Investors should carefully consider their own investment risk.
Investment results are the responsibility of the individual investor. Reports may not be reprinted without permission of SBG Securities. Reports
written by Taiwan-based analysts on non-Taiwan listed companies are not considered recommendations to buy or sell securities under
Taiwan Stock Exchange Operational Regulations Governing Securities Firms Recommending Trades in Securities to Customers.
To the extent this is a report authored in whole or in part by a non-U.S. analyst and is made available in the U.S., the following are important disclosures regarding
any non-U.S. analyst contributors:
The non-U.S. research analysts listed below (if any) are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. The non-U.S. research analysts listed below may
not be associated persons of SNYS and therefore may not be subject to the NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject
company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Vincent Anthonyrajah, Non-U.S. Analyst(s) is a (are) research analyst(s) employed by SBG Securities.(Proprietary) Limited (SBG Securities).

Important Standard Bank Disclosures
Potential Conflicts
Company Disclosure

A: The analyst, a team member, a member of the analyst's household or a team member's household serves as an officer, director or advisory board member of
the subject company
B: The company beneficially owns 5% or more of the equity shares of Standard Bank Group as at Apr 2014
C: Standard Bank Group beneficially owns 1% or more of the equity shares of the company
D: The Company is a client of Standard Bank Group
E: Standard Bank Group has lead managed or co-lead managed a public offering of securities in the Company or any related derivatives in the last 12 months
F: Standard Bank Group has received compensation for investment banking services from the company within the last 12 months
G: Standard Bank Group expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services from the company during the next 3 months
H: SBG Securities (Pty) Ltd has sent extracts of this research report to the subject company prior to publication for the purpose of verifying factual accuracy. Based
on information provided by the subject company, factual changes have been made as a result.
I: Analyst or a member of their household holds long or short personal positions in a class of common equity securities of this company
J: Standard Bank Group is a market maker or liquidity provider in the financial instruments of the relevant issuer or any related derivatives
K: SBG Securities provided non-investment banking services, which may include Sales and Trading services, to the subject company within the past 12 months
L: SBG securities has received compensation for products and services other then investment banking services from the subject company within the past 12
months
M: Standard Bank Group beneficially owns 5% or more of the equity shares of the Company
* Disclosures are correct as of 16 April 2014.
This report may include references to Standard Bank Group Limiteds research recommendations. For further information and for published Standard Bank reports in their
entirety, please visit the website at https://research.standardbank.com/
For SBG Securities disclosure information on other companies mentioned in this report, please visit the website at www.SBGSecurities.com/researchdisclosures .
Disclaimers continue on next page



Equity Research 12
16 April 2014
Disclaimer and Confidentiality Note
SBG Securities (Proprietary) Limited (SBG Sec) is the name of the Equities Trading Division of the Standard Bank Group (SB) operating under its Corporate and Investment banking Division
(CIB).
This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such
distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject SBG Sec to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. All material
presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to SBG Sec. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to,
copied or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of SBG Sec. All trademarks, service marks and logos used in this report are trademarks or service marks or
registered trademarks or service marks of SBG Sec or its affiliates.
The information, tools and material presented in this report are provided to you for information purposes only and are not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or
to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. SBG Sec may not have taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this report are suitable for any particular investor.
SBG Sec will not treat recipients as its customers by virtue of their receiving the report. The investments or services contained or referred to in this report may not be suitable for you and it is
recommended that you consult an independent investment advisor if you are in doubt about such investments or investment services. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal,
accounting or tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation to you.
SBG Sec does not offer advice on the tax consequences of investment and you are advised to contact an independent tax adviser. Please note in particular that the bases and levels of taxation
may change.
SBG Sec believes the information and opinions in the Disclosure Appendix of this report are accurate and complete. Information and opinions presented in the other sections of the report were
obtained or derived from sources SBG Sec believes are reliable, but SBG Sec makes no representations as to their accuracy or completeness. Additional information is available upon request.
SBG Sec accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that liability arises under specific
statutes or regulations applicable to SBG Sec. This report is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. SBG Sec may have issued, and may in the future issue,
a trading call regarding this security. In addition, SBG Sec may have issued, and may in the future issue, other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the
information presented in this report. Those reports reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them and SBG Sec is under no obligation to
ensure that such other reports are brought to the attention of any recipient of this report. SBG Sec is involved in many businesses that relate to companies mentioned in this report.
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance.
Information, opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect a judgement at its original date of publication by SBG Sec and are subject to change without notice. The price, value of and
income from any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities and financial instruments is subject to exchange rate fluctuation
that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities or financial instruments. Investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by currency
volatility, effectively assume this risk.
Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the
risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and
exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility, and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct
their own investigation and analysis of the product and consult with their own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase.
Some investments discussed in this report have a high level of volatility. High volatility investments may experience sudden and large falls in their value causing losses when that investment is
realised. Those losses may equal your original investment. Indeed, in the case of some investments the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial investment, in such circumstances you
may be required to pay more money to support those losses. Income yields from investments may fluctuate and, in consequence, initial capital paid to make the investment may be used as part
of that income yield. Some investments may not be readily realisable and it may be difficult to sell or realise those investments, similarly it may prove difficult for you to obtain reliable information
about the value, or risks, to which such an investment is exposed.
SBG Sec maintains information barriers between its Research Analysts and the rest of its and its shareholders business divisions, more specifically the Investment Banking business. SBG Sec
analysts, strategists and economists compensation is not linked to Investment Banking or Capital Markets transactions performed by SBG Sec or its shareholders. Facts and views presented in
SBG Sec research have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other SBG Sec or Standard Bank business areas, including investment banking
personnel.This report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers to website material of SBG Sec and SB, SBG Sec has not
reviewed the linked site and takes no responsibility for the content contained therein. Such address or hyperlink (including addresses or hyperlinks to SBG Sec or SBs own website material) is
provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of the linked site does not in any way form part of this document. Accessing such website or following such link through this
report shall be at your own risk.
This report is issued and distributed in Europe Standard Bank PLC. 20 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7JE which is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) and regulated by
the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA ) and the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) This report is being distributed in the United States by Standard New York Securities (USA) LLC; in Kenya
by CfC Stanbic Bank Limited; in Nigeria by Stanbic IBTC; in Angola by Standard Bank de Angola S.A.; in Brazil by Banco Standard de Investimentos S.A.; in China by Standard Resources
(China) Limited; in Botswana by Stanbic Bank Botswana Limited; in Democratic Republic of Congo by Stanbic Bank Congo s.a.r.l.; in Ghana by Stanbic Bank Ghana Limited; in Isle of Man by
Standard Bank Isle of Man Limited; in Jersey by Standard Bank Jersey Limited; in Madagascar by Union Commercial Bank S.A.; in Mozambique by Standard Bank s.a.r.l.; in Malawi by Standard
Bank Limited; in Namibia by Standard Bank Namibia Limited; in Mauritius by Standard Bank (Mauritius) Limited; in Taiwan by The Standard Bank of South Africa; in Tanzania by Stanbic Bank
Tanzania Limited; in Singapore by Standard Merchant Bank (Asia) Limited; in Swaziland by Standard Bank Swaziland Limited; in Zambia by Stanbic Bank Zambia Limited; in Zimbabwe by
Stanbic Bank Zimbabwe Limited; in UAE by Standard Bank Plc Dubai branch
In jurisdictions where SBG Sec is not already registered or licensed to trade in securities, transactions will only be effected in accordance with applicable securities legislation, which will vary from
jurisdiction to jurisdiction and may require that the trade be made in accordance with applicable exemptions from registration or licensing requirements.
All rights reserved. Any unauthorized use, duplication, redistribution or disclosure of this report (the Product), including, but not limited to, redistribution of the Product by electronic mail, posting
of the Product on a website or page, and/or providing to a third party a link to the Product, is prohibited by law and will result in prosecution. The information contained in the Product is intended
solely for the recipient and may not be further distributed by the recipient to any third party. Where included in this report, MSCI sourced information is the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley
Capital International Inc. (MSCI). Without prior written permission of MSCI, this information and any other MSCI intellectual property may not be reproduced, redisseminated or used to create any
financial products, including any indices. This information is provided on an "as is" basis. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, its affiliates and any third
party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular
purpose with respect to any of this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling
the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. MSCI, Morgan Stanley Capital International and the MSCI indexes are services marks of MSCI and its affiliates. SBG Securities
Proprietary Limited (SBG Sec) accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties. The document may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. Except to the extent
to which the document refers to website material of SBG Sec, SBG Sec has not reviewed the linked site. Equally, except to the extent to which the document refers to website material of SBG
Sec, SBG Sec takes no responsibility for, and makes no representations or warranties whatsoever as to, the data and information contained therein. Such address or hyperlink (including
addresses or hyperlinks to website material of SBG Sec) is provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of the linked site does not in anyway form part of this document.
Accessing such website or following such link through the document or the website of SBG Sec shall be at your own risk and SBG Sec shall have no liability arising out of, or in connection with,
any such referenced website.
Please note that this report was originally prepared by SBG Sec for distribution to SBG Sec and SB market professionals and institutional investor customers. Recipients who are not market
professionals or institutional investor customers of these firms should seek the advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decision based on this report or for any
necessary explanation of its contents. This research may relate to investments or services of a person outside of the UK or to other matters which are not regulated by the PRA or in respect of
which the protections of the PRA for private customers and/or the UK compensation scheme may not be available, and further details as to where this may be the case are available upon request
in respect of this report.
Additional information is available upon request.
SBG Sec is a member of the JSE Limited.
Copyright 2014 SBG Sec. All rights reserved..





Equity Research 13
16 April 2014
Equity Research and Distribution
Heads of Equity Research Global Sector and Macro Strategy and Commodities
Marc Ter Mors (Global Equity Research) (27 11) 415 4265 Tim Clark (Head Metals and Mining) (27 11) 415 4295 Deanne Gordon (Head SA Strategy) (27 21) 712 0875
Adenrele Adesina (Nigeria) (234 706) 418 6632 Michael Starke (Diversified Mining) (44 203) 145 6515 Adele Fermoyle (SA Strategy) (27 11) 415 4429
Marcel Mballa-Ekobena (Kenya) (254 20) 326 8878 Lionel Therond (Head Oil and Gas) (44 203) 145 6645 Walter de Wet (Head Commodities) (27 11) 415 4176
Vedat Mizrahi (Turkey) (90 212) 367 3690 Farid Abasov (Oil and Gas) (44 203) 145 6737 Leon Westgate (Commodities) (44 203) 145 6822
Kim Silberman (SA Economics) (27 11) 415 4430 Melinda Moore (Commodities) (44 203) 145 6887
Samir Gadio (Africa) (44 203) 145 6774
Phumelele Mbiyo (Africa) (254 20) 363 8988
Sector and Company Research
South Africa South Africa (continued)
Turkey
Financials Travel and Leisure Financials
Voyt Krzychylkiewicz (Banks, Team Head) (27 11) 415 4254 Ewa Swart (27 11) 415 4262 Neslihan Karagoz (90 212) 367 3694
Voyt.Krzychylkiewicz@sbgsecurities.com Ewa.Swart@sbgsecurities.com Neslihan.Karagoz@unluco.com
Risto Ketola (Insurance, Team Head) (27 11) 415 4257 Construction and Materials Real Estate
Risto.Ketola@sbgsecurities.com Luresha Mudaliar (27 11) 415 4263 Oytun Altasli (90 212) 367 3689
Real Estate Luresha.Mudaliar@sbgsecurities.com Oytun.Altasli@unluco.com
Vincent Anthonyrajah (27 11) 415 4246 Small and Mid Caps Airlines
Vincent.Anthonyrajah@sbgsecurities.com Ewa Swart (27 11) 415 4262 Vedat Mizrahi (90 212) 367 3690
Metals and Mining Ewa.Swart@sbgsecurities.com Vedat.Mizrahi@unluco.com
Tim Clark (Metals and Mining, Team Head) (27 11) 415 4295 TMT Huseyin Turan (90 212) 367 3691
Tim.Clark@sbgsecurities.com Jonathan Kennedy-Good (Telcos, Team Head) (27 11) 415 4253 Huseyin.Turan@unluco.com
Heidi Sternberg (Diversified Mining) (27 11) 415 4259 Jonathan.Kennedy-good@sbgsecurities.com Consumer
Heidi.Sternberg@sbgsecurities.com Can Oztoprak (90 212) 367 3692
Dr. David Davis (Gold) (27 11) 415 4247 Africa Can.Oztoprak@unluco.com
David.Davis@sbgsecurities.com Financials TMT
Justin Froneman (Platinum) (27 11) 415 4258 Adenrele Adesina (Nigeria) (234 706) 418 6632 Oytun Altasli (90 212) 367 3689
Justin.Froneman@sbgsecurities.com Adenrele.Adesina@stanbic.com Oytun.Altasli@unluco.com
Setendra Naidoo (Platinum) (27 11) 415 4266 Marcel Mballa-Ekobena (Kenya) (254 20) 326 8878 Industrials
Setendra.Naidoo@sbgsecurities.com Marcel.Mballa-ekobena@stanbic.com Can Ozguzel (90 212) 367 3678
Industrials Muyiwa Oni (Nigeria) (234 706) 418 1281 Can.Ozguzel@unluco.com
Marc Ter Mors (27 11) 415 4265 Muyiwa.Oni@stanbic.com Vedat Mizrahi (90 212) 367 3690
Marc.Termors@sbgsecurities.com Anne Kahure (Kenya) (254 20) 363 8947 Vedat.Mizrahi@unluco.com
Eckhard Goedeke (27 11) 415 4260 Anne.Kahure@stanbic.com Oytun Altasli (Industrial Conglomerates) (90 212) 367 3689
Eckhard.Goedeke@sbgsecurities.com Oil and Gas Oytun.Altasli@unluco.com
Retail Gbenga Sholotan (Nigeria) (234 813) 861 4187 Construction and Materials
Kaeleen Brown (27 83) 302 6296 Gbenga.Sholotan@stanbic.com Oytun Altasli (90 212) 367 3689
Kaeleen.Brown@sbgsecurities.com Construction and Materials Oytun.Altasli@unluco.com
Consumer: Food, Beverages, Tobacco Martin Gregory Waweru (Kenya) (254 20) 363 8948 Oil and Gas
Brendan Grundlingh (Team Head) (27 11) 415 4264 Martin.Waweru@stanbic.com Vedat Mizrahi (90 212) 367 3690
Brendan.Grundlingh@sbgsecurities.com TMT Vedat.Mizrahi@unluco.com
Sumil Seeraj (27 11) 415 4256 Martin Gregory Waweru (Kenya) (254 20) 363 8948 Metals and Mining
Sumil.Seeraj@sbgsecurities.com Martin.Waweru@stanbic.com Vedat Mizrahi (90 212) 367 3690
Health Care Vedat.Mizrahi@unluco.com
Sidu Mtshali (27 11) 415 4261
Sidu.Mtshali@sbgsecurities.com
Equity Sales
South Africa

UK / Europe

US
Ross Elliot (27 11) 415 7020 Christian Simpson (44 203) 145 6636 Nolan Menachemson (1 212) 407 5130
Graham York (27 11) 415 7019 Jasper Crone (44 203) 145 6711 Zoran Milojevic (1 212) 407 5135
Nick Higham (27 11) 415 7018 Turkey Marco Casas (1 212) 407 5183
Sub Saharan Africa Kagan Cevik (90 212) 367 3683 Selim Cevikel (1 212) 407 5110
Matthew Pearson (44 203) 145 6799 Tunc Yildirim (90 212) 367 3675 Alper Uyanik (1 212) 407 5134
Sales Trading
South Africa

UK / Europe

Africa
Luke Middlewick (CEO) (27 11) 415 7021 Dylan Pooley (44 203) 145 6635 Busola Jejelowo (Head Sales Trading) (234 803) 348 6051
Tom Gale (27 11) 415 7023 Sedayshum Naidu (44 203) 145 6634 Titi Ogungbesan (Head Foreign Clients) (234 803) 706 9361
Warren de Wet (27 11) 415 7016 Luca Del Conte (44 203) 145 6638 Idris Toriola (234 802) 316 3113
Tristyn Naidoo (27 11) 415 7022 Turkey
Deji Oladuntoye (234 803) 601 3925
Tokelo Khambule (27 11) 415 7017 Batur Ozyar (90 212) 367 3673
Alexander Ferrer (27 11) 415 7024 Engin Cebeci (90 212) 367 3674
Pinar Ikiz (90 212) 367 3686

Anda mungkin juga menyukai