A STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR HYBRID OFF-GRID WIND POWER SYSTEMS

Javad Fouladgar
Institut de Recherche en Electronique et en Electrotechnique de Nantes Atlantique (IREENA)
37 boulevard de l'universit,
BP 406, 44602
Saint-Nazaire Cedex, France.
javad.fouladgar@univ-nantes.fr

ABSTRACT
Long-term wind speed and wind power forecasting of a
hybrid installation are studied. A statistical approach based
on Weibull distribution is used to predict the auxiliary
power required or the exceeding power produced for an
isolated site. The presence of a suitable storage system has
been taken into account.

1. INTRODUCTION
Wind turbine generators are an ideal choice in many
developing countries where there are urgent needs to
supply basic electricity in rural or isolated areas with no
power infrastructures. They are also growing in the
industrialized world due to the public awareness of the
environment.
Because wind is an intermittent power source, the efficient
power system operation will depend in part on the ability to
forecast available wind power. In this paper, we use a
statistical approach based on Weibull distribution of wind
speed [1] to study long term behaviour of a local hybrid
wind power system. The installation is supposed to be
connected to an auxiliary power generator and that it
contains a suitable storage system to insure a better
autonomy. As a local and quasi isolated system, it should
satisfy in priority local energy consumption. When the
production of the wind system is lower than the
consumption, the auxiliary power generator enters in action

and when the production is higher than the consumption,

the exceeding energy is stored. In the case of storage
system saturation, the exceeding energy is transmitted to
some user if it exists, otherwise it is definitively lost.
The aim of the present work is to size the auxiliary power
system and to predict the exceeding power generated by the
installation. For this purpose, we use the data and the model
developed in [2] as a support. To generalize the calculation,
the power unity is the same as the mean power
consumption which is supposed to be 1 mega Watt.

2. WIND STATISTIQUES
Wind speed distribution, when required in wind power
generation is supposed to have a Weibull probability
density function. This distribution is often used in wind
energy engineering, as it conforms well to the observed
long-term distribution of mean wind speeds for a range of
sites. In some cases, the model also uses the Rayleigh wind
speed distribution, which is a special case of the Weibull
distribution, where the shape factor (described below) is
equal to 2. The Weibull probability density function
expresses the probability density function p(x) to have a
wind speed x during a given time period, as follows

k x
p( x) =
c c

k 1

x k
exp
c

(1)

WIND ENERGY

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This expression is valid for k >1, x 0, and c>0. k is the

shape factor, specified by the user. The shape factor will
typically range from 1 to 3. For a given average wind speed,
a lower shape factor indicates a relatively wide distribution
of wind speeds around the average while a higher shape
factor indicates a relatively narrow distribution of wind
speeds around the average. A lower shape factor will
normally lead to a higher energy production for a given
average wind speed. C is the scale factor, which is
calculated from the following equation:

C=

x
1
1 +
k

(2)

Where, x is the average wind speed value and is the

gamma function. In this paper we use the hourly data of
Swift Current Of Saskatchewan in Canada reported
in [2]
with a shape factor k = 2.141 and the hourly mean wind
velocity of 5.4639 m/s. Fig. 1 shows the Weibull function
for these data.

Fig. 2: Typical wind power generation.

The power generation begins from the wind speeds greater
than 2.5 m/s and it is maximal for the speeds of about 17
m/s. Combining the wind probability function of fig. 1 and
the power generation of Fig. 2, the cumulative probability
function of normalized wind power generation p=P/max(P)
is given by:

F ( p ) = 2.943 p 4 + 7.955 p 3 7.999 p 2 + 3.863 p + 0.123

(3)

4. LONG TERM FORCASTING

Fig. 1: Wind speed Weibull distribution.

3. POWER GENERATION
The power generation is known to be proportional to the
third power of the wind speed. But in practice, the power
generated by the wind generators has a more complicated
relation with the wind speed. Fig. 2 demonstrates a typical
power output of a generator as a function of wind speed.

To study the long term behavior of the system and to

evaluate the storage capacity and auxiliary power required
for an isolated wind power installation, one can use the
power balance between consumption, production and
storage. Suppose D(t) the power consumption, P(t) the
power production, S(t) the instantaneous storage available,
Smax the maximum storage capacity, Ps the power
generation capability of storage system, Pr(t) the auxiliary
power required, Pp(t) the exceeding power produced and t the
time of observation (Hours in our study) . The state equation
of the wind system is given by algorithm of the Fig. 3.
Calculate a random Weibull series of n wind speed with the
two Weibul parameters k and C
Calculate the wind turbine power for each wind speed

Proceedings of ISES Solar World Congress 2007: Solar Energy and Human Settlement

2294

Calculate a random Weibull series of n wind speed with the two

Weibul parameters k and C
Calculate the wind turbine power for each wind speed
Begin
If P(t) > D(t)
if P(t)-D(t) >= Ps
S(t) = S(t-1)+Ps;
if S(t)>Smax
Pl(t) = P(t)-D(t)-(Smax-S(t-1));
S(t) = Smax;
else

a long period operation. These powers are given as a

function of Ps for different maximum storage capacities.
For Ps < 200 kW, the first MWh storage capacity reduces
the mean value of Prm from 470 kW to 400 kW and the
mean value of Ppm from 420 kW to 360 kW. For extra
storage volumes the reduction is practically negligible. For
other values of Ps, the reductions are more important but
the third volume of storage has a little effect on the
reduction of Prm and Ppm.

Pl(t) = P(t)-D(t)-Ps;
end
else
S(t) = S(t-1)+P(t)-D(t);
if S(t) > Smax
Pl(t) = P(t)-D(t)-(Smax-S(t-1));
S(t) = Smax;
end
end
else
if D(t)-P(t) >= Ps
S(t) = S(t-1)-Ps;
if S(t) < 0
Pr(t)=D(t)-P(t)-S(t-1);
S(t )= 0;
else
Pr(t) = D(t)-P(t)-Ps;
end

Fig. 4: Mean auxiliary power required.

else
S(t) = S(t-1)-D(t)+P(t);
If S(t) < 0
Pr(t) = D(t)-P(t)-S(t-1);
S(t) = 0;
end
end
end

Fig. 3: State equation algorithm.

4.1 Effect of the Power Generation of the Storage System
Ps
If we suppose that the power consumption D(t) is estimated
by the user, we can introduce the power time series P(t) in
the algorithm to study the influence of the storage system
on the required auxiliary power and on the exceeding
power produced.

Fig. 5: Exceeding power produced.

4.2 Effect of the Power Capacity of the Wind Turbine P.

Fig. 4 and 5 show respectively the mean auxiliary power

required Prm and mean exceeding power produced Ppm in

Fig. 6 and 7 show respectively Prm and Ppm as a function

WIND ENERGY

of Pm, the mean power of wind turbine. An increase in the

power installation of the wind turbine reduces Prm but
increases Ppm. As in the precedent case, the first storage
volume reduces considerably Prm and Ppm but for extra
storage volumes the reduction is negligible.

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important. In this case, the effect on the Prm and Ppm is the
same as in the precedent case of increasing the power
installation.

Fig. 8: Mean auxiliary power required.

Fig. 6: Mean auxiliary power required.

Fig. 9: Mean exceeding power generated.

Fig. 7: Mean exceeding power generated.

4.3 Effect of the Weibull Parameters
Fig. 8 and 9 show respectively Prm and Ppm as a
function of w, the mean wind velocity. When the average
wind velocity increases, the power generation is more

Fig. 10 and 11 show Prm and Ppm as a function of k, the

shape factor. The shape factor acts as Ps in figs 5 and 6.
These curves can be used by wind generating designers to
make a trade off between storage installation, the auxiliary
and exceeding power costs for a long term economical
analysis.

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Proceedings of ISES Solar World Congress 2007: Solar Energy and Human Settlement

5. CONCLUSION
For a hybrid wind installation, one can use the wind
statistics represented by Weibull distribution function to
obtain the long term data such as mean auxiliary power
requirement, mean exceeding power production or storage
dimensions. The effect of different parameters has been
studied. The first volume of storage system has an
important effect on the reduction of exceeding and required
power. The size of the power turbine, the auxiliary
generator and the storage system is the result of a trade off
between these results.
Fig. 10: mean auxiliary power required.
6. REFERENCES

Fig. 11: Mean exceeding power generated.

(1) Engineering statistic hand book, www.it1.nist.gov/

div898/handbook/apr/section2/apr221.htm.
(2) S.M. Pandit., S.M. Wu, Time series and system
analysis with applications, John Wiely & Sons Inc,
1983.
(3) M. Milligan, M.N. Schwartz, Y. Wan, Statistical Wind
Power Forecasting for U.S. Wind Farms, 17th
Conference on Probability and Statistics in the
Atmospheric Science, 2004, American Meteorological
Society Annual Meeting, Seattle, Washington, January
11-15, 2004.
(4) R. Karki, P. Hu, Wind Power Simulation Model for
Reliability Evaluation, www.usask.ca //research/ee/
faculty /rak116/files //Wind_Reliability.pdf.