Petronet LNG (PETLNG) : Long Term Story Intact

May 3, 2014
ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Result Update

Long term story intact
Petronet LNG reported its Q4FY14 results with revenues at | 10,427
crore (up 23.2%) and PAT at | 169.3 crore (down 30.9%) in Q4FY14
The topline was in line with our estimates despite lower than
estimated sales volumes (117.2 tbtu against our estimate of 122.8
tbtu) as the blended margin of | 42.1/mmbtu is higher than our
estimate of | 37.8/mmbtu. The EBITDA margin at 3.7% came above
our estimate of 3.3% for Q4FY14 mainly on account of higher than
estimated spot/short-term volumes and margins. PAT was higher
than our estimates on account of higher other income
Disappointing performance last year; scenario likely to improve
The total sales volume (long-term + spot/short-term + tolling) has
declined from 548.4 tbtu in FY12 to 525.2 tbtu in FY13 and further to 493
tbtu in FY14. In Q4FY14, volumes declined 5.2% QoQ to 117.2 TBTU.
However, the EBITDA margin sustained at 3.7% (above our estimate of
3.3%) due to almost doubling of spot volumes (20.5 tbtu in Q4FY14) QoQ.
For FY14, reasons like high LNG prices, rupee depreciation and a
challenging demand environment led to lower capacity utilisation (96%
for FY14) of Dahej terminal. Although the Kochi terminal became
operational on September 10, 2013, volumes at the Kochi terminal
continue to remain subdued due to delay in commissioning of Phase II of
the Kochi Mangalore Bangalore pipeline. During Q4FY14, volumes at the
Kochi terminal stood at a meagre 1 TBTU (79% QoQ reduction), as FACT
had stopped its gas offtake on January 10, 2014 due to higher LNG prices.
The Tamil Nadu section (connecting to Bangalore) will get commissioned
in July 2015 only if Gail receives a favourable verdict from the Supreme
Court, where the hearing is in July 2014. Therefore, we expect substantial
volume ramp up at Kochi only in H2FY16. However, we find comfort in
the fact that the second jetty got commissioned in April 2014 at Dahej.
The jetty will enable the terminal to handle 1.25 MMTPA of the volume
booked by GSPC on a take or pay basis. The company has also signed a
short-term supply back to back contract for 0.8 MMTPA in FY15E. Regas
volume of 1 MMTPA is expected to come from GAIL. We have estimated
LNG volumes of 556 tbtu and 599 tbtu for FY15E and FY16E, respectively.
Focus on contracted & tolling volumes will reduce volatility
The Dahej expansion to 15 mmtpa is expected to happen by November
2016. Of this 15 mmtpa, 7.5 mmtpa will be under long-term contracts
while 7.25 mmtpa of the incremental capacity has been already booked
(GAIL-2.5, GSPC- 2.25, IOCL-1.5 & BPCL-1) under take-or-pay contract. Of
the 2.5 MMTPA booked by GSPC, 1.25 MMTPA has already started in
Q1FY15 after the commissioning of the second jetty. This focus on tolling
volumes will reduce the sourcing & earning volatility risk.
Primary LNG play in India
With India continuing to be significantly short of natural gas supply,
Petronet LNG will benefit being the primary play on increasing usage of
LNG. While the next few quarters could be challenging (economic
slowdown, low Kochi utilisation), the stock price does reflect these
concerns. We have valued the stock based on DCF methodology (WACC
12%, terminal growth -2%) to arrive at a HOLD recommendation with a
target price of | 157.
Petronet LNG (PETLNG) | 145
Rating matrix
Rating : Hold
Target : | 157
Target Period : 12 months
Potential Upside : 8%

Whats changed?
Target Changed from | 132 to | 157
EPS FY15E Changed from | 9.5 to | 10.5
EPS FY16E Introduced at | 12.8
Rating Changed from Buy to Hold

Quarterly performance
Q4FY14 Q4FY13 YoY (%) Q3FY14 QoQ (%)
Revenue 10,427.8 8,465.6 23.2 9,382.1 11.1
EBITDA 386.8 434.4 (11.0) 349.9 10.5
EBITDA (%) 3.7 5.1 -142 bps 3.7 -2 bps
PAT 169.3 245.1 (30.9) 135.6 24.9

Key financials
| Crore FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E
Revenues 31,467.4 37,747.6 40,279.1 42,913.1
EBITDA 1,938.8 1,498.4 1,791.4 2,123.7
Net Profit 1,149.3 711.9 789.1 957.0
EPS (|) 15.3 9.5 10.5 12.8

Valuation summary
FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E
P/E 9.5 15.3 13.8 11.4
Target P/E 10.2 16.5 14.9 12.3
EV / EBITDA 6.5 9.1 7.9 7.0
P/BV 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.7
RoNW (%) 25.8 14.3 14.2 15.2
RoCE (%) 24.4 13.0 12.3 13.8

Stock data
Particular Amount
Market Capitalization (| Crore) 10,875.0
Total Debt (FY13) (| Crore) 2,718.2
Cash and Investments (FY13) (| Crore) 952.6
EV (| Crore) 12,640.6
52 week H/L 148/103
Equity capital (| Crore) 750.0
Face value (|) 10.0

Price performance
Return % 1M 3M 6M 12M
Petronet LNG 6.6 38.5 18.3 4.2
GSPL 10.5 31.0 29.5 7.7
GAIL (3.0) 5.6 7.1 5.1
Gujarat Gas 49.4 52.4 33.8 53.2

Analyst
Mayur Matani
Mayur.matani@icicisecurities.com
Nishit Zota
Nishit.zota@icicisecurities.com

Page 2
Variance analysis
Q4FY14 Q4FY14E Q4FY13 YoY (%) Q3FY14 QoQ (%) Comments
Total Revenues 10,427.8 10,454.3 8,465.6 23.2 9,382.1 11.1 Inline with estimates; lower volumes offset by higher than estimated realisation
Raw materials costs 9,934.4 9,990.1 7,998.6 24.2 8,917.1 11.4
Employees Cost 19.5 12.5 13.7 42.5 10.6 84.6 Higher in fourth quarter due to variable pay component
Other Expenses 87.07 104.5 19.0 358.3 104.5 -16.7
lower than estimates as low capacity utilisation at Kochi led to lower power/fuel
cost
Total Expenditure 10,041.0 10,107.2 8,031.2 25.0 9,032.2 11.2
EBITDA 386.8 347.1 434.4 -11.0 349.9 10.5
EBITDA margins (%) 3.7 3.3 5.1 -142 bps 3.7 -2 bps
higer than estimates on account of higher than estimated spot/short term volumes &
margiins
Depreciation 100.0 102.4 46.8 113.7 101.7 -1.7
EBIT 286.8 244.7 387.6 -26.0 248.2 15.5
Interest 78.6 77.8 24.7 218.3 78.3 0.4
Other Income 30.8 14.7 20.3 51.9 21.6 42.3 Higher than estimates due to maturity of short term investments
Extra Ordinary Item 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 NA
PBT 238.9 181.6 383.1 -37.6 191.6 24.7
Total Tax 69.6 49.2 138.0 -49.6 56.0 24.3
PAT 169.3 132.3 245.1 -30.9 135.6 24.9
Key Metrics
Sales volume (tbtu) 112.7 106.5 118.3 -4.7 104.8 7.6
Regasification vol (tbtu) 4.5 16.3 3.7 21.9 18.8 -76.1
Total Volumes (tbtu) 117.2 122.8 122.0 -3.9 123.6 -5.2
Lower than estimates on account of lower capacity utilisation at Dahej (96%) &
lower volumes at Kochi
Blended margin (|/mmbtu) 42.1 37.8 43.0 -2.2 37.6 11.9
Higher on account of doubling of short term / spot volumes QoQ which commands
higher margins

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Change in estimates
(| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Comments
Revenue 44,472.7 40,279.1 -9.4 NA 42,913.1 NA
Reduced FY15E estimates, since Kochi volumes are not expected to gorw.In FY16,
we'l witness a rebound in revenues due to expected ramp up at Kochi
EBITDA 1,806.2 1,791.4 -0.8 NA 2,123.7 NA
EBITDA Margin (%) 4.1 4.4 39 bps NA 4.9 NA
PAT 712.9 789.1 10.7 NA 957.0 NA
Estimates increased due to lower tax rate assumption & higher estimated other
income
EPS (|) 9.5 10.5 10.7 NA 12.8 NA
FY15E FY16E


Assumptions
FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY15E FY16E
Sales volume (tbtu) 479.4 439.6 448.6 472.1 463.2 500.4
Regasification vol (tbtu) 45.7 53.7 107.0 126.5 88.3 88.3
Total Volumes (tbtu) 525.2 493.3 555.6 598.6 551.5 588.7 No major change in FY15E estimates as Kochi is not expected to ramp up
Blended Margin(|/bbl) 41.2 38.6 39.7 43.0 41.1 44.7
Comments
Current Earlier


Page 3
Company Analysis

Disappointing performance last year; scenario likely to improve
Total sales volume (long-term + spot/short-term + tolling) has declined
from 548.4 tbtu in FY12 to 525.2 tbtu in FY13 and further to 493 tbtu in
FY14. In Q4FY14, volumes declined 5.2% QoQ to 117.2 TBTU. However,
the EBITDA margin sustained at 3.7% (above our estimate of 3.3%) due to
almost doubling of spot volumes (20.5 tbtu in Q4FY14) QoQ. For FY14,
reasons like high LNG prices, rupee depreciation and a challenging
demand environment led to lower capacity utilisation (96% for FY14) of
Dahej terminal. Although the Kochi terminal became operational on
September 10, 2013, volumes at the Kochi terminal continue to remain
subdued due to delay in commissioning of Phase II of the Kochi
Mangalore Bangalore pipeline. During Q4FY14, volumes at Kochi terminal
stood at meagre 1 TBTU (79% QoQ reduction), as FACT had stopped its
gas offtake on January 10, 2014 due to higher LNG prices.

Exhibit 1: Volume trend
525.2
598.6
555.6
493.3
117.2 123.6 123.0 129.5
122.0
141.0
135.0 127.2
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
Q
1
F
Y
1
3
Q
2
F
Y
1
3
Q
3
F
Y
1
3
Q
4
F
Y
1
3
F
Y
1
3
Q
1
F
Y
1
4
Q
2
F
Y
1
4
Q
3
F
Y
1
4
Q
4
F
Y
1
4
F
Y
1
4
F
Y
1
5
E
F
Y
1
6
E
t
b
t
u
Sales volume Regasification volume


A marginal increase in volumes will happen in H1FY16, if the Kerala
section (connecting to Mangalore) issue gets resolved. The Tamil Nadu
section (connecting to Bangalore) will get commissioned in July 2015
only if Gail receives a favourable verdict from Supreme Court, where the
next hearing is scheduled in July 2014. Therefore, we expect a substantial
volume ramp up at Kochi only in H2FY16. However, we find comfort in
the fact that the second jetty got commissioned in April 2014 at Dahej.
The jetty will enable the terminal to handle 1.25 MMTPA of the volume
booked by GSPC on a take or pay basis. The company has also signed a
short term supply back to back contract for 0.8 MMTPA in FY15E. A regas
volume of 1 MMTPA is expected to come from Gail. We have estimated
LNG volumes of 556 tbtu and 599 tbtu for FY15E and FY16E, respectively.

Page 4
We expect blended margins to increase from | 38.6 per mmbtu in FY14 to
| 43 per mmbtu in FY16E on account of an increase in Dahej contract &
regasification margins by 5% per annum.

Exhibit 2: Margin trend
41.5
43.0
41.2
37.6
42.1
43.0
39.7
38.6
37.6
37.4
43.0
44.3
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
Q
1
F
Y
1
3
Q
2
F
Y
1
3
Q
3
F
Y
1
3
Q
4
F
Y
1
3
F
Y
1
3
Q
1
F
Y
1
4
Q
2
F
Y
1
4
Q
3
F
Y
1
4
Q
4
F
Y
1
4
F
Y
1
4
F
Y
1
5
E
F
Y
1
6
E
|
/
m
m
b
t
u


Focus on contracted & tolling volumes to reduce volatility
The Dahej expansion to 15 mmtpa is expected to happen by November
2016. Of this 15 mmtpa, 7.5 mmtpa will be under long-term contracts,
while 7.25 mmtpa of the incremental capacity has been already booked
(GAIL-2.5, GSPC- 2.25, IOCL-1.5 & BPCL-1) under take-or-pay contract. Of
the 2.5 MMTPA booked by GSPC, 1.25 MMTPA has already started in
Q1FY15 after the commissioning of the second jetty. This focus on tolling
volumes will reduce the sourcing and earning volatility risk.

Exhibit 3: Booked capacity
Booked capacity (mmtpa)
Current Capacity 7.50
GAIL 2.50
IOCL 2.50
BPCL 2.50
2nd Jetty 1.25
GSPC 1.25
5 mmtpa expansion 6.00
GAIL 2.50
GSPC 1.00
IOCL 1.50
BPCL 1.00
Total 14.75


Page 5
Global demand supply scenario - determinant for spot LNG prices
Price of spot LNG, which had reached a peak of~$17-18/mmbtu post a
severe winter, have cooled off to levels of ~US$14/mmbtu. Prices will not
increase in the near term, considering that the demand for LNG will
remain low in summer. In FY15, incremental LNG supply is expected from
commissioning of 6 MMTPA terminal in Papua New Guinea and flow of
volumes from Angola and Algeria. In FY16, incremental supply will come
from projects in Australia. However, there is enough global demand to
match the incremental global supply. Hence, spot LNG prices are not
expected to correct much from current levels from a medium-term
perspective.

Conference call highlights
Qatar FOB price for Q4FY14 stood at $ 12.5/mmbtu while the
average price for FY14 stood at $11.9/mmbtu. The FY15 Qatar FOB
price is expected to be at $13/mmbtu
Regas tariffs at Dahej terminal have been raised from | 36.7/mmbtu
to | 38.6/mmbtu based on the annual 5% hike
The PBT loss for Kochi terminal for FY14 stood at | 250 crore, which
was mainly due to | 108 crore interest cost and | 121 crore
depreciation
One key approval has been pending for the Gangavaram project as
there has not been any government in Andhra Pradesh for the past
three months
Capex for FY15E stands | 1200 crore
Lower tax rate is attributable to the losses from the Kochi terminal
Employee cost was higher in Q4FY14 due to the variable pay
component

Page 6
Outlook & Valuation
India continues to be significantly short of natural gas supply, with the
shortfall likely to increase. This will necessitate an increase in LNG
imports. Petronet LNG will benefit being the primary play on increasing
usage of LNG. While the next few quarters could be challenging
(economic slowdown, low Kochi utilisation), the stock price does reflect
these concerns. We have valued the stock based on DCF methodology
(WACC 12%, terminal growth -2%) to arrive at a HOLD recommendation
with a price target of | 157.

Exhibit 4: Valuation
Particulars Amount
WACC 11.0%
Present Value of Cash Flows till FY20E 3004.1
Terminal Growth Rate 2%
Terminal Value 24093.1
Present Value of Terminal Cash Flows 12881.2
Total Present Value of the Firm 15885.2
Less: Net Debt (FY14E) 4198.2
Total Present Value of Equity 11687.0
Number of Outstanding shares (In Crore) 75.0
DCF (| per share) 179

Source: ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 5: Valuations
Year Sales
(| Crore)
Sales Gr.
(%)
EPS
(|)
EPS Gr.
(%)
PE
(x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoNW (%) RoCE (%)
FY13 31,467.4 38.6 15.3 8.7 9.5 6.5 25.8 24.4
FY14E 37747.6 20.0 9.5 -38.1 15.3 9.1 14.3 13.0
FY15E 40,279.1 6.7 10.5 10.8 13.8 7.9 14.2 12.3
FY15E 42913.1 6.5 12.8 21.3 11.4 7.0 15.2 13.8

Page 7
Company snapshot
Target Price: 157
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
J
a
n
-
0
8
A
p
r
-
0
8
J
u
l
-
0
8
O
c
t
-
0
8
J
a
n
-
0
9
A
p
r
-
0
9
J
u
l
-
0
9
O
c
t
-
0
9
J
a
n
-
1
0
A
p
r
-
1
0
J
u
l
-
1
0
O
c
t
-
1
0
J
a
n
-
1
1
A
p
r
-
1
1
J
u
l
-
1
1
O
c
t
-
1
1
J
a
n
-
1
2
A
p
r
-
1
2
J
u
l
-
1
2
O
c
t
-
1
2
J
a
n
-
1
3
A
p
r
-
1
3
J
u
l
-
1
3
O
c
t
-
1
3
J
a
n
-
1
4
A
p
r
-
1
4
J
u
l
-
1
4
O
c
t
-
1
4
J
a
n
-
1
5
A
p
r
-
1
5

Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Key events
Date Event
Jan-08 Fears of decline in LNG demand due to weaker global and domestic economy
Oct-08 Sub-prime crisis impacting the global and domestic growth impacted the sentiment for future LNG demand, Also, fears that Reliance KG basin gas production from
next year would lead to the decline in LNG demand
May-09 LNG demand stable inspite of start of production from Reliance KG basin
Aug-10 Production from Reliance KG D6 basin declines, pushing up demand for spot LNG
Jul-11 Reliance production from KG basin declines significantly which increased demand for short term and spot LNG. Improved results also due to higher margins on short
term and spot LNG
Apr-12 Results of Petronet LNG were below market expectations on account of lower margins on short term and spot volumes. Company felt the impact of high LNG prices
on its bottomline
May-13 Kochi terminal gets ready but delay in construction of Phase-II of Kochi-Mangalore-Bangalore pipeline would lead to lower capacity utilization for the terminal
Dec-13 Fears of further delay in construction of Phase-II of Kochi-Mangalore-Bangalore pipeline
Apr-14 Company reports better than expected blended margins due to higher than expected short term / spot volumes


Top 10 Shareholders Shareholding Pattern
Rank Name Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m)
1 Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd 31-Mar-14 12.50 93.8 0.0
2 GAIL (India) Ltd 31-Mar-14 12.50 93.8 0.0
3 Indian Oil Corpn Ltd 31-Mar-14 12.50 93.8 0.0
4 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd 31-Mar-14 12.50 93.8 0.0
5 Gaz de France 31-Mar-14 10.00 75.0 0.0
6 Asian Development Bank 31-Mar-14 5.20 39.0 0.0
7 T. Rowe Price International (UK) Ltd. 31-Mar-14 2.55 19.1 0.1
8 Fidelity Management & Research Company 31-Mar-14 2.04 15.3 3.1
9 Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) 31-Mar-14 1.71 12.8 2.5
10 ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd. 31-Mar-14 1.05 7.9 0.0
(in %) Jun-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Promoter 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
FII 13.7 14.4 16.4 18.9 19.9
DII 9.0 8.1 6.5 4.8 4.4
Others 27.3 27.6 27.0 26.3 25.7

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

Recent Activity
Investor name Value Shares Investor name Value Shares
Sundaram Asset Management Company Limited 8.73m 3.83m HSBC Global Asset Management (Hong Kong) Limited -11.37m -5.99m
Fidelity Management & Research Company 7.01m 3.07m DNB Asset Management (Asia) Limited -5.92m -3.00m
Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM) 5.68m 2.49m Russell Investments Limited -3.25m -1.66m
DSP BlackRock Investment Managers Pvt. Ltd. 2.52m 1.10m HDFC Asset Management Co., Ltd. -3.15m -1.61m
Sydinvest 1.78m 0.78m SBI Funds Management Pvt. Ltd. -2.97m -1.30m
Buys Sells

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 8

.
Financial summary

Profit and loss statement | Crore
(Year-end March) FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E
Revenue 31,467.4 37,747.6 40,279.1 42,913.1
Growth (%) 38.6 20.0 6.7 6.5
(Inc.) / Dec stock in trade 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Raw material Costs 29305.0 35842.4 38071.6 40341.6
Purchase of trading goods 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Employee Costs 37.0 46.6 53.6 61.7
Other Expenditure 186.7 360.1 362.5 386.2
Op. Expenditure 29528.7 36249.1 38487.7 40789.5
EBITDA 1,938.8 1,498.4 1,791.4 2,123.7
Growth (%) 7.0 -22.7 19.5 18.6
Depreciation 186.6 308.1 433.7 458.5
EBIT 1752.2 1190.3 1357.6 1665.2
Interest 118.4 219.6 329.7 365.5
Other Income 86.5 83.8 64.4 61.1
PBT 1720.3 1054.5 1092.4 1360.8
Growth (%) 10.8 -38.7 3.6 24.6
Tax 571.0 342.6 303.2 403.8
Reported PAT 1,149.3 711.9 789.1 957.0
Growth (%) 8.7 -38.1 10.8 21.3
EPS 15.3 9.5 10.5 12.8


Cash flow statement | Crore
Profit after Tax 1,149.3 711.9 789.1 957.0
Less: Dividend Paid 219.4 174.3 217.9 217.9
Add: Depreciation 186.6 308.1 433.7 458.5
Add: Others 28.0 162.0 0.0 0.0
Cash Profit 1,144.5 1,007.7 1,005.0 1,197.5
Increase/(Decrease) in CL 1,155.9 463.1 200.5 352.9
(Increase)/Decrease in CA -710.3 -733.4 -221.9 -230.9
CF from Operating Activities 1590.2 737.4 983.6 1319.6
Purchase of Fixed Assets 1,063.5 1,737.9 1,527.5 2,027.5
(Inc)/Dec in Investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Others 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
CF from Investing Activities -1,063.5 -1,737.9 -1,527.5 -2,027.5
Inc/(Dec) in Loan Funds -558.0 1,480.0 1,300.0 250.0
Inc/(Dec) in Sh. Cap. & Res. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Others 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
CF from financing activities -558.0 1,480.0 1,300.0 250.0
Change in cash Eq. -31.3 479.6 756.1 -457.9
Op. Cash and cash Eq. 983.9 952.6 1,432.1 2,188.2
Cl. Cash and cash Eq. 952.6 1,432.1 2,188.2 1,730.3


Balance sheet | Crore
Source of Funds
Equity Capital 750.0 750.0 750.0 750.0
Preference capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Reserves & Surplus 3,699.7 4,237.3 4,808.6 5,547.7
Shareholder's Fund 4,449.7 4,987.3 5,558.6 6,297.7
Loan Funds 2,718.2 4,198.2 5,498.2 5,748.2
Deferred Tax Liability 391.0 553.0 553.0 553.0
Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Source of Funds 7,558.9 9,738.5 11,609.8 12,598.9
Application of Funds
Gross Block 3,579.6 7,807.1 8,734.6 8,762.1
Less: Acc. Depreciation 1,221.7 1,519.4 1,953.1 2,411.6
Net Block 2,357.9 6,287.7 6,781.4 6,350.5
Capital WIP 4,330.5 1,830.5 2,430.5 4,430.5
Total Fixed Assets 6,688.4 8,118.2 9,211.9 10,781.0
Investments 139.9 139.9 139.9 139.9
Inventories 1,036.6 1,241.0 1,324.2 1,410.8
Debtor 1,689.8 2,068.4 2,207.1 2,351.4
Cash 952.6 1,432.1 2,188.2 1,730.3
Loan & Advance, Other CA 259.6 410.0 410.0 410.0
Total Current assets 3,938.6 5,151.5 6,129.5 5,902.5
Current Liabilities 1,981.4 2,895.7 3,089.9 3,292.0
Provisions 1,226.6 775.4 781.7 932.5
Total CL and Provisions 3,208.0 3,671.1 3,871.6 4,224.5
Net Working Capital 730.6 1,480.5 2,258.0 1,678.0
Miscellaneous expense 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Application of Funds 7,558.9 9,738.5 11,609.8 12,598.9


Key ratios
Per share data (|)
Book Value 59.3 66.5 74.1 84.0
Cash per share 12.7 19.1 29.2 23.1
EPS 15.3 9.5 10.5 12.8
Cash EPS 17.8 13.6 16.3 18.9
DPS 2.5 2.0 2.5 2.5
Profitability & Operating Ratios
EBITDA Margin (%) 6.2 4.0 4.4 4.9
PAT Margin (%) 3.7 1.9 2.0 2.2
Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.0
Inventory Turnover (Days) 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
Debtor (Days) 19.6 20.0 20.0 20.0
Current Liabilities (Days) 23.0 28.0 28.0 28.0
Return Ratios (%)
RoE 25.8 14.3 14.2 15.2
RoCE 24.4 13.0 12.3 13.8
RoIC 28.2 15.4 15.3 16.1
Valuation Ratios (x)
PE 9.5 15.3 13.8 11.4
Price to Book Value 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.7
EV/EBITDA 6.5 9.1 7.9 7.0
EV/Sales 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Leverage & Solvency Ratios
Debt to equity (x) 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9
Interest Coverage (x) 14.8 5.4 4.1 4.6
Debt to EBITDA (x) 1.4 2.8 3.1 2.7
Current Ratio 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.4
Quick ratio 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.1


Page 9

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Oil & Gas)
CMP M Cap
(|) TP(|) Rating (| Cr) FY13 FY14E FY15E FY13 FY14E FY15E FY13 FY14E FY15E FY13 FY14E FY15E FY13 FY14E FY15E
Aban Offshore (ABALLO) 511 591 Buy 2,223 37.2 63.5 102.2 13.7 8.0 5.0 6.8 5.9 4.8 10.2 11.1 13.6 5.5 8.6 12.6
Bharat Petroleum (BHAPET) 462 421 Hold 33,406 36.6 26.8 27.9 12.6 17.2 16.5 9.0 10.8 10.8 10.3 7.0 7.1 15.9 11.0 10.8
Cairn India (CAIIND) 335 361 Hold 63,538 41.6 63.1 65.1 8.0 5.3 5.1 5.1 4.5 3.9 20.0 23.5 19.9 16.4 25.3 21.7
GAIL (India) (GAIL) 370 395 Hold 46,934 31.7 35.1 35.6 11.7 10.5 10.4 8.2 7.0 6.9 16.9 16.6 15.5 16.6 16.3 14.9
Gujarat Gas (GUJGAS) 373 253 Hold 4,784 22.3 36.2 29.0 16.8 10.3 12.9 11.6 6.8 8.1 38.3 55.4 39.8 32.3 42.9 29.7
Gujarat State Petronet (GSPL) 72 65 Hold 4,050 9.6 7.5 7.8 7.5 9.6 9.2 5.1 5.5 5.5 20.3 17.0 15.3 18.3 12.9 12.0
Hindustan Petroleum (HINPET) 329 258 Hold 11,153 26.7 19.5 27.3 12.3 16.9 12.1 11.8 10.6 8.0 4.2 4.0 6.1 6.6 4.8 6.5
Indian Oil Corporation (INDOIL) 264 238 Hold 64,098 20.6 17.9 26.1 12.8 14.8 10.1 4.7 5.2 3.7 5.7 4.5 8.3 8.2 6.8 9.3
Indraprastha Gas (INDGAS) 286 292 Hold 3,883 25.3 27.2 28.9 11.3 10.5 9.9 5.7 5.1 4.5 31.1 28.9 26.7 23.7 21.3 19.3
Oil India Limited (OILIND) 482 505 Hold 28,974 59.7 51.5 59.6 8.1 9.4 8.1 3.8 4.0 3.3 18.5 14.5 16.3 18.7 14.8 15.5
ONGC (ONGC) 329 297 Hold 281,478 26.2 32.9 28.3 12.5 10.0 11.6 5.5 4.4 4.9 26.6 24.8 19.7 19.8 20.8 15.7
Petronet LNG (PETLNG) 145 157 Hold 10,875 14.1 15.3 9.5 10.3 9.5 15.3 7.3 6.5 9.1 24.0 24.4 13.0 30.0 25.8 14.3
RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Sector / Company
EPS (|) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x)

Page 10

RATING RATIONALE
ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns
ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them
as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional
target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.

Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;
Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;
Hold: Up to +/-10%;
Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey Head Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093

research@icicidirect.com

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Mayur Matani, MBA; Nishit Zota, MBA research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our
personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or
view(s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the ICICI Securities Inc.
Disclosures:
ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) and its affiliates are a full-service, integrated investment banking, investment management and brokerage and financing group. We along with affiliates are leading
underwriter of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our affiliates have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of
companies covered by our Investment Research Department. Our research professionals provide important input into our investment banking and other business selection processes. ICICI Securities
generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their dependent family members from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts
cover.
The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and
meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without
prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, ICICI Securities, its subsidiaries and associated companies, their directors and
employees (ICICI Securities and affiliates) are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities
from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities
policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities is acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.
This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This
report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and may not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial
instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their
receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific
circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment
objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate
the investment risks. The value and return of investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities and affiliates accept no liabilities for any
loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the
risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to
change without notice.
ICICI Securities and its affiliates might have managed or co-managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months. ICICI Securities and affiliates might have received
compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of public offerings, corporate finance, investment
banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction. It is confirmed that Mayur Matani MBA; Nishit Zota, MBA research analysts and the authors of this report have not received any
compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. Our research professionals are paid in part based on the profitability of ICICI Securities, which include earnings
from Investment Banking and other business.
ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the
research report.
It is confirmed that Mayur Matani, MBA; Nishit Zota, MBA research analysts and the authors of this report or any of their family members does not serve as an officer, director or advisory board member of
the companies mentioned in the report.
ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. ICICI Securities and affiliates may act upon or make use
of information contained in the report prior to the publication thereof.
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution,
publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities
described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and
to observe such restriction.

Petronet LNG (PETLNG) : Long Term Story Intact

Diunggah oleh

Informasi Dokumen

Judul Asli

Hak Cipta

Format Tersedia

Bagikan dokumen Ini

Bagikan atau Tanam Dokumen

Opsi Berbagi

Apakah menurut Anda dokumen ini bermanfaat?

Apakah konten ini tidak pantas?

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

Petronet LNG (PETLNG) : Long Term Story Intact

Diunggah oleh

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

May 3, 2014

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Anda mungkin juga menyukai