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Validation of Satellite
Derived Meteorological
Parameters with
Observed Surface Data

The fndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are those of the authors
and do not necessarily refect the views of Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Internationale
Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) Gm!"
GIZ does not guarantee the accuracy of the data, statistical tools, and analysis included in this
wor#" The oundaries, colours, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this
wor# do not imply any $udgment on the part of GIZ concerning the legal status of any territory or
the endorsement or acceptance of such oundaries"
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Contents
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 3
INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND 4
TEST SITES FOR THE STUDY 5
COMPARISON OF DATA SETS 6
STATISTICAL TOOLS AND ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY
ANALYSIS OF METEOROLOGICAL !ARIABLES "#
%&I'(&)) *+
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T1531%&T-%1 """"""""""""*4
TOPS est$%&tes vis-a-vis &''e(t&)*e )en'+ %&,-s .o, /e&t+e, 0&,$&)*es11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111"
WAY FORWARD """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""*6
REFERENCES1 1112#
ACRONYMS11"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""77
GLOSSARY1 22
ANNE3URE 1124
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors of this study wish to than# the Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) Gm!,
'ew ,elhi, for their support and their valuale suggestions and feedac# throughout the test period" The
involvement and comments of the GIZ appraisal mission team comprising of 5r" 8an 9erer, 5r" )iya:uat 9han, 5r"
5ichael %oth, and 5r" &niruddha 2hanhag, their contriutions and correctional inputs related to the second
evaluation is deeply appreciated"
The authors would li#e to share their gratitude for the valuale guidance received from 5r" 9" '" %ao, ;hief %is#
.<cer, &I;, and ,r" =" >en#ateswarlu, ,irector, ;%I,&, I;&%"
The authors would also li#e to extend their gratitude to ,r" =" =apu$i %ao, 3rincipal 2cientist (&gromet) and ,r" >" -"
5" %ao, 3ro$ect ;oordinator, &I;%3&5 (;%I,&, I;&%), !yderaad, for the datathe data analysis and report writing as
part of the assignment" 2incere gratitude is due to all resource personnel and scientists of ;%I,& for their
contriutions during the course of this study"
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INTROD!TION "ND #"!$%ROND
;limate change, a phenomenon attriuted to rising temperatures on account of gloal warming, has slowly ut
steadily made its impact felt on the Indian a&griculture sector in the last decade, leading to leading to uncertainties
in food production along with raising :uestions on gloal food security" .ne of the reasons attriutale to the rising
food insecurity is the inaility of the existing systems to provide, need ased, relevant, ? end@user@oriented
information systems"
That said thereThere are, however, a numer of state, federal, and apex institutions engaged in collecting, collating,
curating, and analysing information aout a variety of economically important aspects of our ecosystem and its
surrounding environment such as crop yields, pollution, groundwater, and weather" 0hat these approaches lac# is a
road environmental monitoring capacity that can deliver on@demand information at from the regional to the
national levels"
&nother set of constraints for the improvement of agricultural ris# management in India, and particularly for weather
index insurance, is the availaility of location specifc meteorological data" )imitations within these datasets are
related to restrictions in weather station coverage (density) , and prolems with the :uality (errors and gaps in the
information) and availaility of historical records"
Installing weather stations to meet these re:uirements is a costly and time consuming activityA moreover,
challenges related to operations and maintenance of these instruments in remote areas add lead to greater
complexitiesy" Technological innovation will e re:uired to maximiBe enhance the existing infrastructure and design
future deployment strategies" 2uch innovation will to reduce the capital expenditure, the re:uirement of which in
this case would e approximately * per cent of *C when compared with that incurred in the case of conventional
technology i.e. &utomated 0eather 2tations" It is recommeneded that that technologies, such as the Terrestrial
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.servation and 3rediction 2ystem (T.32)
*
, which oDers competitive advantages y providing regular data sets
which can e used for monitoring, modelingmodelling, and forecasting ecosystem conditions including derivation of
location specifc weather data, weather forecast, ris# of drought and foods, extreme weather events, crop water
re:uirements, crop acreage, and yields ('emani et al., 7++6)"
,erived data sets can e regularly ac:uired across parameters such as maximum, minimum temperature, daily total
rainfall, daily average humidity, and daily total solar radiation at E x E #m resolution, which will e useful for
reducing the asics ris# experienced in the case of automated weather stations (5ilesi et al., 7+**)"
There are several additional applications which that can also e ased on the data derived from applications such as
T.32 for the further development of the weather index insurance"
2atellite derived datasets can also e comined with crop productivity, atmospheric and hydraulic models to create
specifc products such as ris# maps incase of droughts, excess or high intensity rainfall, or to predict food ris#s"
!owever, in comparison to weather station oservations, tThere are however some sources of error associated with
the estimation of regular grids leading to over or under@estimation" in comparison to weather station oservations"
This is attriuted to the fact that regular grids are estimated within pixel and cover areas across several s:uare
#ilometers#ilometres, while weather station oservations represent point estimates covering much smaller areas"
!owever, the degree of over or under@estimation can e evaluated with specifc statistical tests that can help verify
the authenticity of datasets from regular grids for ris# analysis and for the estimation of missing data" Thus, with a
view to explore the potential of satellite derived data sets and its use in weather ris# management applications, GIZ,
&I;I (&gricultural Insurance ;ompany of India), ee5ausam 0eather %is# 5anagement 2ervices 3rivate )imited, and
the &ll India ;oordinated %esearch 3ro$ect on &grometeorology (&I;%3&5) at the ;entral %esearch Institute for
,ryland &griculture (;%I,&), !yderaad, $ointly evaluated the :uality and accuracy of satellite derived
1
T.32 is a data and modelingmodelling software system designed to seamlessly integrate data from satellite, aircraft, and ground sensors with
weatherFclimate models and application models to expeditiously produce operational nowcasts and forecasts of ecological conditions" T.32
provides reliale data on current and predicted ecosystem conditions through automation of the data retrieval, pre@processing, integration,
and modelingmodelling steps, allowing T.32 data products to e used in an operational setting for a range of applications"
6 | P a g e
meteorological data y comparing it with oserved data from meteorological oservatories across selected locations
in the state of 5aharashtra"
Test S$tes .o, t+e St4567
The test sites in 5aharashtra state lie etween *GH and 77H ' latitudeA 47H and I+H 1 longitude having a
geographical area of J+4,4J* s:" #m" The state can e divided into four meteorological su@divisions ased on
climatic variaility and topographical features" The meteorological su@division 9on#an ? Goa is to the extreme
western part with an elongated 'orth 2outh along the 0est ;oast of India" ,ue to these topographical features, the
region receives very high rainfall during 2outhwest monsoon season and the annual rainfall of this su@division is
J*++ mm" The >idarha region is the extreme eastern part of the state" The annual rainfall of >idarha is lower than
that of 9on#an ? Goa ut more than the other two su@divisions (*+IE mm)" The other two su@divisions viz.,
5adhya 5aharashtra and 5arathwada have similar
mean rainfall i.e., I44 mm and I7* mm, respectively" The
rainfall patterns in all the regions have high intra@
seasonal variaility"
& total of 77 locations (viz., &#ola, &liagh, &urangaad,
=eed, ,apoli, Igatpuri, 8alna, 9ar$at, )atur, 5ahaaleshwar,
'agpur, 'iphad, .smanaad, 3arhani, 3une, %ahuri,
%atnagiri, 2indewahi, 2olapur, >engurle>engurla,
0a#awali, and /avatmal) were selected for the present
study uniformly representing all the four meteorological su@
divisions" The geographical locations of these stations are
presented in fgure *"
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(igure *K Geographical location of stations selected for the analysis"
Co%(&,$son o. 5&t& sets7
The daily meteorological data recorded at these locations and that availale with the dataan# of &ll India
;oordinated %esearch 3ro$ect on &grometeorology (&I;%3&5) unit, ;%I,&, was used as aseline data and was
compared with meteorological data derived from satellite recorded data (meteorologically derived data ) for the
period *66IL@7+*+" =aseline data on rainfall and temperature were sourced from the ;lass & to ; .servatories
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located on the campuses of &gricultural %esearch 2tations ('iphad, 2indhewahi, >engurle>engurla, 0a#awale,
/avatmal, =eed, .smanaad)A Zonal %esearch 2taions2tationsF %egional &gricultural %esearch 2tations (9ar$at,
Igatpuri, 5ahaaleshwar)A .servatories attached to &I;%3&5 (&#ola, ,apoli, 2olapur, 3arhani)A India
5eteorological ,epartment (&liagh, %atnagiri)A 0ater and )and 5anagement Institute (&urangaad)A ;entral
Institute of ;otton %esearch ('agpur)A .ilseeds %esearch 2tation ()atur)A &I;%3 on 2u@tropical (ruits (%ahuri), and
;enter;entre for &dvanced 2tudies in &gricultural 5eteorology (3une)" These oservatories were periodically
inspected and certifed y the India 5eteorological ,epartment, 3une"
The 5aximum maximum and minimum temperature data was fltered on a daily asis to ensure homogeneity" &
flter was also used to identify any outlayer, in cases where the daily temperature values were greaterFless than the
long term mean y J times the standard deviation of the corresponding day" 'o out layers were noticed in the data
evaluated" 1xtreme rainfall events for each station were compared with the nearest mandal level data sourced from
the Government of 5aharashtra"
Ass$8n%ent Met+o5o*o86 &n5 A((,o&'+7
>arious statistical tools, as given in the tTale *, were used to assess the accuracy of satellite derived weather data"
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T&)*e "7 O0e,0$e/ o. t+e St&t$st$'&* Too*s7
N&%e o. t+e too* Des',$(t$on
R&t$on&*e .o, 4s$n8 t+e
st&t$st$'&* too*s &',oss
t+e se*e'te5
%eteo,o*o8$'&*
(&,&%ete,s
Root %e&n s94&,e
e,,o, :RMSE; :Moo5
et. al., "<4;
It represents the average deviations estimated from the measured
variales and will have the same units" %521 is a good measure
of accuracy, ut only to compare diDerent forecasting errors within a
dataset and not etween diDerent ones, as it is scale@dependent" These
individual diDerences are also called residuals, and the %521 serves to
aggregate them into a single measure of predictive power"
%521 gives the
magnitude (Muantitative)
y which each estimated
parameter was close to
the oserved" It is a good
measure for rainfall as
well as temperature
variales"
Me&n )$&s e,,o,
:MBE; :W&**&'+ &n5
Go=*et> "<?<;
5=1 N
5=1 is a measure of overall ias error or systemic error" It is the
diDerence etween estimated and measured variales, and indicates the
magnitude and direction of the estimated variale deviating from the
measured variale and will have the same units"
5=1 indicates the
direction (over or under
estimate) of the
estimated parameter and
the magnitude of the
deviation from the
measured variales" It is
largely used to measure
rainfall and temperature
variales"
Me&n A)so*4te
Pe,'ent&8e E,,o,
:MAPE;
5&31 N
It is the error associated with a measure of accuracy in the estimation
and is expressed in percentage terms" 5&31 is Bero for a perfect ft and it
has no upper limit" 3rolems arise with small or Bero denominators (in
the case of rainfall)" 5&31 is a good statistical tool to validate
temperature measurements rather than rainfall" 5&31 is commonly used
in :uantitative forecasting methods ecause it produces a measure of
relative overall ft"
5&31 indicates the per
cent accuracy in the
estimation of each
parameter" It is an
eDective measurement
tool for evaluating
accuracy levels across
temperature estimates"
In5e@ o. &8,ee%ent
:DAIn5e@; :A+4B& et.
al., 2##2;
,@index N*@( )
It is a measure of deviation etween estimated and measured values in
,@Index of agreement
indicates how far the
estimated values were
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N&%e o. t+e too* Des',$(t$on
R&t$on&*e .o, 4s$n8 t+e
st&t$st$'&* too*s &',oss
t+e se*e'te5
%eteo,o*o8$'&*
(&,&%ete,s
relation to the scattering of the oserved data" It has values from + to *,
where * is a perfect estimation" The index of agreement can detect
additive and proportional diDerences in the oserved and simulated
means and variancesA however, ,@index is overly sensitive to extreme
values due to the s:uared diDerences"
closer to the oserved
relative in a *K* ratio" It is
an eDective
measurement tool for
evaluating accuracy
levels across oth rainfall
and temperature
estimates"
St&n5&,5 5e0$&t$on
:SD;
2, N
2, is a measure of a varialeOs spread around its mean value, expressed
in the same unit as the original values" It shows the variation etween
the sample and the average" & low value indicates that the data points
tend to e very close to the mean"
2tandard deviation
indicates the deviations
from the mean for the
estimated and measured
values" & small deviation
in the estimated value
from the oserved
indicates high accuracy
of the prediction system"
It is an eDective
measurement tool for
evaluating accuracy
levels across oth rainfall
and temperature
estimates
Pe&,sonCs
'o,,e*&t$on &t <5D
'onE5en'e $nte,0&*
:K$n$,6 et. al., "<<;
3earsonOs correlation coe<cient descries the degree of collinearity
etween simulated and measured data" The correlation coe<cient, which
ranges from P* to Q*, is an index of the degree of linear relationship
etween oserved and simulated data" If r N +, no linear relationship
exists" If r N * or P*, a perfect positive or negative linear relationship
exists" &lthough r has een widely used for model evaluation, this is
;orrelation indicates
whether the estimated
values are moving in the
same direction of the
oserved or otherwise" It
is an eDective
measurement tool for
evaluating accuracy
levels across oth rainfall
and temperature
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N&%e o. t+e too* Des',$(t$on
R&t$on&*e .o, 4s$n8 t+e
st&t$st$'&* too*s &',oss
t+e se*e'te5
%eteo,o*o8$'&*
(&,&%ete,s
over@sensitive to extreme values (outliers) and insensitive to additive
and proportional diDerences etween model predictions and measured
data"
estimates"
No,%&*$Fe5
o)Be't$0e .4n't$on
:NOF;
:W$-&,%(&(,&+&,n
&n5 Kos$ts&-4*'+&$>
2#"#;
%521
'.( N
Ravg
The value of '.(N+ indicates a perfect match etween oserved and
estimated" '.(S* means estimated error is less than standard deviation
around oserved mean"
It indicates the accuracy
of estimated values
compared to those
oserved" & value of + is
a good estimate and * is
a poor estimate" It is an
eDective measurement
tool for evaluating
accuracy levels across
oth rainfall and
temperature estimates
S*o(e o. t+e
,e8,ess$on *$ne
The slope of the regression line indicate how well simulated data
matches measured data" & slope indicates the relative relationship
etween the oserved and predicted values" & value near unity indicates
a good agreement etween the two" !owever, it has values ranging from
+ to T"
It indicates the relative
distance etween
oserved and predicted
values" & value close to +
shows a poor association"
It is an eDective
measurement tool for
evaluating accuracy
levels across oth rainfall
and temperature
estimates
T+,e&t S'o,e :H&**
et al., "<<<;
Threat score (T2) measured the fraction of oserved and F or T.32
estimated events that were correctly estimated" & rainy day is defned in
the present study as a day with rainfall of U 7"V mm" Threat score was
calculated using the following formulaK
T2 N hits F (hits Q misses Q false alarms)
where !its means T.32 estimate for rainfall was yes and it was
oserved, miss means no T.32 estimate for rainfall ut it was oserved,
false alarm means T.32 estimate for rainfall was yes ut it was not
oserved and correct negative means no T.32 estimate for rainfall and it
It is a :ualitative
parameter to determine
the sucesssuccess rate of
correctly sensing
rainfallsensing rainfall
events" & score of *
indicates that all the
rainfall events sensed
correctly matched with
those oserved" It is an
eDective measurement
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N&%e o. t+e too* Des',$(t$on
R&t$on&*e .o, 4s$n8 t+e
st&t$st$'&* too*s &',oss
t+e se*e'te5
%eteo,o*o8$'&*
(&,&%ete,s
was not oserved" It can e summariBed in the form of a 7 x 7 tale asK
Est$%&te5
O)se,0e5
O)se,0e5 6es
e0ent
O)se,0e5 no
e0ent
T.32 estimated yes
event
Hits False alarms
T.32 estimated no event Misses Correct negatives
The value of the threat score ranges etween + to *, where + indicates
least accuracy of the T.32 estimate, and * indicates a perfect estimate"
It explains aout how well did the T.32 estimate yes event , correspond
to the oserved yes event"
tool for evaluating
accuracy levels across
rainfall estimatesrainfall
estimates"
H&nssen &n5
K4$(e,s :T,4e s-$**;
s'o,e :E)e,t &n5
We6%o4t+> "<<<;
!anssen and 9uipers (True s#ill) score was calculated as followsK
!9 score N Whits F (hits Q misses)X @ Wfalse alarms F (false alarms Q
correct negatives)X
The value of !9 score ranges etween @* to *, + indicates no s#ill and *
indicate perfect score" It explains how well did the T.32 estimate
separatethe T.32 estimate separated the yes event from the no event"
& :ualitative test to
:uantify the accuracy of
sensing rainfallsensing
rainfall events" & value of
@* is an unft estimate
and Q* a perfect (correct)
estimate of rainfall
events" It is an eDective
measurement tool for
evaluating accuracy
levels across rainfall
estimates"
R&t$o S'o,e
:!&s+$st+ et al.
2##?;
%atio score was calculated as followsK
%atio score N (hits Q correct negative) F '
It ranges etween + to *, + indicates no s#ill and * indicate perfect score"
& :ualitative test to
:uantify the accuracy of
sensing rainfallsensing
rainfall events" & value of
+ indicates unft estimate
and Q* indicates
perfectly correct estimate
of rainfall events" It is an
eDective measurement
tool for evaluating
accuracy levels across
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N&%e o. t+e too* Des',$(t$on
R&t$on&*e .o, 4s$n8 t+e
st&t$st$'&* too*s &',oss
t+e se*e'te5
%eteo,o*o8$'&*
(&,&%ete,s
rainfall estimatesrainfall
estimates"
S-$** S'o,e Test
:Pe,-$ns et al.,
2##;
where n is the numer of ins used to calculate the 3,( (3roaility
,ensity (unctions) for a given region or parameter, Zm is the fre:uency of
values in a given in from the estimated and Zo is the fre:uency of
values in a given in from the oserved data"
The 2score metric calculates the cumulative minimum value of two
distriutions of each inned values, therey measuring the common area
etween two 3,(s" If a model estimates the oserved conditions
perfectly, the s#ill score (2score) will e:ual one, which is the total sum of
the proaility at each in centercentre in a given 3,(" If a model
estimates the oserved 3,( poorly, it will have a s#ill score close to Bero
with negligile overlap etween the oserved and modeledmodelled
3,(s" This is a very simple measure that provides a roust and
comparale measure of the relative similarity etween estimated and
oserved 3,(s"
2#ill 2core Test is a
measure to ascertain
whether estimated
fre:uency values were
close to oservedto
oserved values across
each of the selected
parameters" & value close
to * is a perfect estimate
y the system and vice
versa" It is an eDective
measurement tool for
evaluating accuracy
levels across oth rainfall
and temperature
estimates
ANALYSIS OF METEOROLOGICAL !ARIABLES7
R&$n.&**
%ainfall is the foremost weather variale that drives the agricultural production" 2outhwest monsoon contriutes
close to 4+ per cent C of the annual rainfall in the state of 5aharashtraof 5aharashtra" " ,etails aout the onset of
the monsoon, distriution of rainfall during the season, maximum precipitation on a given day, duration of dry and
wet spells during the crop season, and cessation of rains form part of the vital information re:uired y farmers and
14 | P a g e
agronomists at the feld level and policy ma#ers at the administrative level, for etter planning and management of
resources" %ainfall characteristics li#e rain events, amount of rainfall on daily, wee#ly, monthly, annual, and seasonal
asis were studied to determine the accuracy of the satellite derived data" ,iDerent statistical tools were used to
:uantify this accuracy" The ench mar#s considered in the :uantifcation for each rainfall character and the results of
the analysis are presented in tale Tale 7"
D4,&t$on o. 5,6 G /et s(e**s
The duration of dry or wet spells during the 2outhwest monsoon season of each year as per the satellite derived
data were compared with the oserved spells (Tale J)" &t .nly in ten *+ locations only (i.e., EV per centC) the
satellite derived length of wet spells were in greatermore than 4+ per centC agreement (YrY U +"4)" &t 0a#awali,
>engurle>engurla, 'agpur, and 8alna the satellite derived wet spell durations were in :uite contrast to those
oserved, with negative correlation values suggesting that satellite derived and oserved data sets were moving in
opposite directions" &t In almost all locations, except 0a#awali, 2indewahi, and 5ahaaleshwar, satellite derived
duration of wet spells were higher than the oserved data (positvepositive 5=1 values)" 2atellite derived length of
dry spells matched *++ per cent C with the oserved data at *E per centC of the locations (viz., Igatpuri, 'iphad,
and %atnagiri) and the length of dry spells matched with more than IE per centC accuracy at &#ola, =eed, 9ar$at,
and 2indewahi (*I per centC of the total locations)"
Te%(e,&t4,e
&ir temperature is an important asis for geographical crop distriution and eDects :ualitative and :uantitative crop
yields" It regulates rate of metaolic processes and evapotranspiration" 1xtreme high and low temperatures aDect
the physiological and enBymatic activities in crops, causing desiccation and , aDecting fertiliBation, which resulting in
ultimately aDects the yields" )ow temperature leads to reduced physiological whilst very low temperatures or frost
in$uries in certain cases may lead to total crop failures" The accuracy of the satellite derived data in detecting the
15 | P a g e
diagonal pattern of temperature on a daily and wee#ly asis was assessed using diDerent statistical tools and the
analytical results are presented in tale Tale 7"
S&te**$te 5e,$0e5 D&t& 5&t& est$%&tes vis-a-vis &''e(t&)*e )en'+ %&,-s .o, /e&t+e, 0&,$&)*es
0eather plays a vital role in agricultural production y infuencing crop growth,A physiological development,A
incidence of pest and diseases,A altering water needs,A and defning fertiliBer re:uirements" 0eather factors often
demonstrate spatial variations in an area at a given time, whilst whereas temporal variations tend to do so at a
given place whilst exhiiting yearly variations for a given place and time" .ver short periods, rainfall is the most
variale of all parameters, oth in terms of time and space" In an ideal situation one would expect any system to e
*++ per centC accurate" =ut forecasting weather phenomenon is a highly di<cult tas# compounded further in the
light of the current state of technological advances"
In the case of rainfall, given its highly variale nature, it is s a common practice that forecast events with 4+ per
centC proaility are accepted worldwide (05., 7+*+)" 1ven in Indian conditions, a forecast with an accuracy level
of 4+ per centC for the said event is considered to e an ade:uate enchmar#"" The -951T .<ce, however,
considers G+ per cent C accuracy in rain forecasts as their target value" In order to achieve this target value it issues
three@hourly forecasts, which is an important point to e noted in the context of this study"
In the case of satellite derived data, estimates are considered as forecasted values" The ench mar#s considered for
:uantifying the usaility of satellite derived data for temperature and rainfall or oth events and :uantity are
presented in tale Tale E" 2atellite derived data sensed rainfall events matched with the oserved data for the
entire year across 44 per centC of the test locations and GI per centC of test locations during the monsoon season"
)ight rainfall events (S*+ mm) were sensed correctly at I* per centC of all locations during the monsoon season
and the accuracy decreased to GIC incase of heavy rainfall events (Z*+ mm)" In this case rainfall events were
grouped in G six classes viz.,S7V, 7V and [ V+, SV+ and [ 4V, S4V and [ *++, S*++ and [ *7V, and S*7V and [
*V+ mm, and the accuracy of satellite derived data in sensing rainfall events in each class was determined
16 | P a g e
considering the fre:uencies of oserved and estimated data sets" I, it was oserved that in the case of light rainfall
events (S7V"+ mm), the satellite derived data estimated events showed near *++ per centC accuracy"
!owerver!owever, as the :uantum of rainfall increased, a negative impact on the accuracy levels could e
oserved, in the S7V and [ V+ mm category satellite derived data estimates were found to e accurate across E*
per centC of locationsA in the SV+ and [ 4V mm class the accuracy was down to 74"J per centCA and it reduced
further in the S4V and *++ mm category , to *J"G per centCA in the S*++ and [ *7V mm category satellite derived
data estimates had an accuracy level of *I"I per centC accurate, while in the S*7V and [ *V+ mm category the
accuracy levels of derivaedderived data sets were at a paltry accuracy level of E"V per centC across all test
locations"
Thus, it can e inferred that the accuracy of satellite derived data in estimating rainfall events decreases with
increase in rainfall intensities" ,aily rainfall satellite derived data estimates matched across 6* per centC of the
test locations with the oserved and wee#ly rainfall amounts" !owever, the length of satellite derived data dry spells
estimates were found to e within the critical limit only across only GIC per cent of the studied locations, while in
EG per centC of the locations the accuracy levels of satellite derived data were found to e elow the acceptale
limits"
&ccuracy in predicting the temperature is governed y an important indicator, i"e", temperature range" 5ost
availale measurement instruementsinstruments ()i:uid@in@glass thermometers) used or supplied y I5, to record
the temperature at the Indian stations have a correction factor ranging from +"7 to +"I H;" ;onsider a winter day in
winter in any 'orth Indian station experiencing cold wave with temperatures hovering around * or 7 H;, an
instrumental error of +"7 to +"I H; will result in an error approximately in the range of 7+ to I+ per centC" &t the
same time during summer (when temperatures are over around J+ H;), the same instrument would result in an error
rate in the range of +"G to 7"4 per centC only" That is Ys why while determining the accuracy of temperature
predictions, one needsneed to predetermine and consider the range" In the analysis of satellite derived data
estimates, using the s#ill score test, an allowance of Q * or 7 H; is not given and the accuracy is determined to the
17 | P a g e
exact value" This allowance is ana user defned one and comes with pre@determined limits" The -951T .<ce o<ce
#eeps the limits as Q 7 H; with a targetedtargeted accuracy of IV per cent C for maximum temperature and I+ per
cent C for minimum temperature" 0hen allowance of Q 7 H; is was given for the satellite derived data estimated
temperatures, as done under the Indian conditions y >ashisth et al., (7++I), the accuracy in maximum temperature
was found to e EV"V per cent C with *+ locations falllingfalling within the Q 7 H; range and *I"7 per centC in case
of minimum temperature with E locations falling within the Q 7 H; range (Tale V)"
The duration of dry spells perfectly matched on across all the years (*++ per centC accuracy) at three locations viB",
Igatpuri, 'iphad, and %atnagiri" &t four locations viB", &#ola, =eed, 9ar$at, and 2indewahi (*I per centC of the
locations), the duration of dry spells matched with oserved with more than IE per centC accuracy"
T&)*e7 21 S4%%&,6 o. ,es4*ts o. s&te**$te 5e,$0e5 5&t& est$%&tes &',oss Meteo,o*o8$'&* %eteo,o*o8$'&*
0&,$&)*es"
We&t+e,
E0ente0ent
P&,&%ete,s
e0&*4&te5 /$t+
,&t$on&*e
St&t$st$'&* too*s
4se5 $n t+e
e0&*4&t$on /$t+
,&t$on&*e
Ben'+%&,-s /$t+
R&t$on&*e,&t$on&*e
S4%%&,6 o. Res4*ts,es4*ts
Re.e,en'e t&)*e G
E84,eAnne@4,e
,e.e,en'e
R&$n.&**
e0ents
a. %ainfall events
during the
southwest
monsoon season
(re:uency (per
centC)
%ainfall event
forecasted with
Z4+ per centC
accuracy is the
worldwide
enchmar#, as
per 05.
standards
standards world
wideworldwide"
a. 2atellite derived satellite
derived rainfall events were
matching on a daily asis
(one@to@one) over 4V per
centC of the times at 6* per
centC of the locations" .n
an average the accuracy of
predicting events stands at
I6"7 per centC for this
parameter"
&nnexure *a and
Tale Ga ?
18 | P a g e
We&t+e,
E0ente0ent
P&,&%ete,s
e0&*4&te5 /$t+
,&t$on&*e
St&t$st$'&* too*s
4se5 $n t+e
e0&*4&t$on /$t+
,&t$on&*e
Ben'+%&,-s /$t+
R&t$on&*e,&t$on&*e
S4%%&,6 o. Res4*ts,es4*ts
Re.e,en'e t&)*e G
E84,eAnne@4,e
,e.e,en'e
b. (re:uency (per
centC) of
estimated events
matching with the
oserved events
during 205
season in rainfall
classes of S*+
mm and Z*+
mmFday"
2atellite derived satellite
derived events were
matching over 4+ per centC
of the times at 6* per centC
of the locations" In the S*+
mm class, GI per centC of
the locations and in the Z*+
mm class, I7 per centC of
the locations events were
aove the enchmar#"
&nnexure 7 Tale
4
c. (re:uency (per
centC) of
estimated events
matching with the
oserved during
205 season in
rainfall classes of
S7V, Z7V and [
V+, ZV+ and [4V,
Z4V and [*++,
Z*++ and [ *7V,
and Z *7V and
[*V+ mm F day"
b. 2atellite derived data
showed that events were
estimated with *++ per cent
C accuracy in the S7V mm
category, across E* per cent
C of the test locations in the
Z7V and [V+ mm categoryA
at 74"J per centC in the ZV+
and [4V mm categoryA at
*J"G per centC locations in
the Z4V and [*++ mm
category, at *I"I per centC
locations in the Z*++ and
[*7V mm*7V mm category
and across E"V per centC of
test locations in theZ*7V
and [*V+ mm category"
&nnexure JTale I
d" &ccuracy of
detecting a rainy
day (Z7"V mm
rainfall per day)
Threat score U+"4 &t *+ locations (EG per centC)
during the entire year and at
*J locations (V6 per centC)
during the southwest monsoon
season the \Threat threat]
score values were aove the
enchmar#"
&nnexure E Tale
6
!9 score U+"4 &t *4 locations (44 per centC)
during the entire year and at
*V locations (GI per centC)
during the southwest monsoon
season the !9 score values
are aove the prescried
enchmar#prescried
enchmar#"
&nnexure E Tale
6
19 | P a g e
We&t+e,
E0ente0ent
P&,&%ete,s
e0&*4&te5 /$t+
,&t$on&*e
St&t$st$'&* too*s
4se5 $n t+e
e0&*4&t$on /$t+
,&t$on&*e
Ben'+%&,-s /$t+
R&t$on&*e,&t$on&*e
S4%%&,6 o. Res4*ts,es4*ts
Re.e,en'e t&)*e G
E84,eAnne@4,e
,e.e,en'e
%atio score U+"IV &cross all locations (*++ per
centC) on annual asis and at
*G locations (4J per centC)
during the southwest monsoon
season the \%atio ratio] score
values are aove the
prescried
enchmar#prescried
enchmar#"
&nnexure ETale 6
D&$*6
,&$n.&**
,aily rainfall (mm) a" ;orrelation
coe<cient
a. U+"4 (Generally,
a value of
Z+"4+I for a
sample siBe of
*E mm, and
Z+"V+ for a
sample siBe of
7V mm, and
Z+"JG for a
sample siBe of
V+ mm, and
Z+"7V for a
sample siBe of
*++ mm is
statistically
signifcant for a
two tailed test
at * per cent C
level of
signifcance)"
a. &t 6* per centC of the
locations (7+ out of 77),
satellite derived daily rainfall
amounts were aove the
prescried ench mar#" &t
&urangaad and
>engurle>engurla the
accuracy levels of the
satellite derived rainfall data
was found to epoore poor
(YrY [+"V)"
&nnexure V Tale
*+
" ,@Index " U+"I
b. &t 7+ out of 77 locations, ,@
Index values stand at U+"I
while in the areas of
&urangaad and
>engurle>engurla results of
the d@index are found to e
:uite poor with estimated
value standing at [+"G, "
which is :uite is elow the
prescried
enchmar#prescried
enchmar#"
&nnexure V Tale
*+
20 | P a g e
We&t+e,
E0ente0ent
P&,&%ete,s
e0&*4&te5 /$t+
,&t$on&*e
St&t$st$'&* too*s
4se5 $n t+e
e0&*4&t$on /$t+
,&t$on&*e
Ben'+%&,-s /$t+
R&t$on&*e,&t$on&*e
S4%%&,6 o. Res4*ts,es4*ts
Re.e,en'e t&)*e G
E84,eAnne@4,e
,e.e,en'e
c" 2lope of
regression
c. +"I to *"7 (,ata
falling on the
*K* line will
have a slope
value of *"+"
The limits +"I
and *"7 are
considered for
the purpose of
this study)"
c. &t *E out of 77 locations (GE
per cent C), satellite derived
daily rainfall amounts were
within the prescried ench
mar# limits, with a mean
value of *"+*
&nnexure V Tale
*+
d" 2#ill score test
d. I+ per cent C d. The average accuracy of all
the locations is I4 per cent,
C which is aove the
prescried ench mar#" &t
*I per centC of the
locations the accuracy is
more than 6+ per centC, at
V6 per centC of the
locations the accuracy is in
the range of I+L@IV per cent
C"
&nnexure V Tale
*+
Wee-*6
,&$n.&**
0ee#ly rainfall totals
(mm)
a" ;orrelation
coe<cient
a" U+"4
a. 0ee#ly totals of satellite
derived rainfall data was
aove the thresholds at 6*
per centC of the locations
(7+ out of 77 locations)"
&nnexure G Tale
**
",@Index " U+"I
b. &t all the locations, satellite
derived wee#ly rainfall totals
were aove the prescried
enchmar#"
&nnexure G Tale
**
c" 2lope of
regression
c" +"I to *"7
c. &t 6V per cent C of the
locations (7* out of 77
locations) satellite derived
wee#ly rainfall totals were
aove the prescried
enchmar#"
&nnexure G Tale
**
Mont+*6
,&$n.&**
5onthly rainfall
totals (mm)
a" ;orrelation
coe<cient
a" U+"4 a" 2atellite derived monthly
rainfall totals were close to
the oserved at all the
locations with YrY values
aove the prescried
enchmar#"
&nnexure 4 Tale
*7
21 | P a g e
We&t+e,
E0ente0ent
P&,&%ete,s
e0&*4&te5 /$t+
,&t$on&*e
St&t$st$'&* too*s
4se5 $n t+e
e0&*4&t$on /$t+
,&t$on&*e
Ben'+%&,-s /$t+
R&t$on&*e,&t$on&*e
S4%%&,6 o. Res4*ts,es4*ts
Re.e,en'e t&)*e G
E84,eAnne@4,e
,e.e,en'e
" ,@Index " U+"I "2atellite derived monthly
rainfall totals were close to
the oserved at all the
locations with ,@Index
values aove the prescried
enchmar#"
&nnexure 4 Tale
*7
c" 5ean =ias
1rror
c" ^ 7+C c" &t *7 locations (VV per cent
C) the satellite derived
values were over@estimated
while in *+ locations (EV per
centC) values were found to
e under@estimated"
!owever, in *4 locations (44
per centC) the monthly
totals were within the
threshold limits"
&nnexure 4 Tale
*7
d" 2lope of
regression
d" +"I to *"7 d"T.32 satellite derived
monthly rainfall totals are
aove the prescried
enchmar# in all the
locations"
&nnexure 4 Tale
*7
22 | P a g e
We&t+e,
E0ente0ent
P&,&%ete,s
e0&*4&te5 /$t+
,&t$on&*e
St&t$st$'&* too*s
4se5 $n t+e
e0&*4&t$on /$t+
,&t$on&*e
Ben'+%&,-s /$t+
R&t$on&*e,&t$on&*e
S4%%&,6 o. Res4*ts,es4*ts
Re.e,en'e t&)*e G
E84,eAnne@4,e
,e.e,en'e
Ann4&*
,&$n.&**
&nnual total rainfall
(mm)
a" ;orrelation
coe<cient
a" U+"4 a" &t *I locations (I7C) the
satellite derived annual
rainfall totals satellite
derived are aove the
prescried enchmar#"
&nnexure I Tale
*J
" ,@Index " U+"I "&t *6 locations (IGC) the
satellite derived annual
rainfall totals are aove the
prescried enchmar#"
&nnexure I Tale
*J
c" 2lope of
regression
c" +"I to *"7 c" &t seven locations (J7C)
derived annual rainfall totals
were elow the prescried
enchmar#"
&nnexure I Tale
*J
So4t+/est
,&$n.&**
2outhwest monsoon
total rainfall (mm)
a" ;orrelation
coe<cient
a" U+"4 a" &t all the locations, derived
southwest monsoon rainfall
totals were aove the
prescried enchmar#"
&nnexure 6 Tale
*E
" ,@Index " U+"I "&t all the locations, derived
southwest monsoon rainfall
totals were aove the
prescried enchmar#"
&nnexure 6 Tale
*E
c" 2lope of
regression
c" +"I to *"7 c" &t seven locations (J7 per
centC) derived southwest
monsoon rainfall totals were
elow the prescried
enchmar#"
&nnexure 6 Tale
*E
No,t+e&st
,&$n.&**
'ortheast monsoon
total rainfall (mm)
a" ;orrelation
coe<cient
a" U+"4 a" &t 6V per centC (7* out of
77 locations) of the
locations, derived northeast
monsoon rainfall totals were
aove the prescried ench
mar#" &t >engurle>engurla
poor level of association was
found etween the etween
and estimated rainfall
totals"
&nnexure *+ Tale
*V
23 | P a g e
We&t+e,
E0ente0ent
P&,&%ete,s
e0&*4&te5 /$t+
,&t$on&*e
St&t$st$'&* too*s
4se5 $n t+e
e0&*4&t$on /$t+
,&t$on&*e
Ben'+%&,-s /$t+
R&t$on&*e,&t$on&*e
S4%%&,6 o. Res4*ts,es4*ts
Re.e,en'e t&)*e G
E84,eAnne@4,e
,e.e,en'e
" ,@Index " U+"I "&t 6V per centC (7* out of
77 locations) of the
locations, derived northeast
monsoon rainfall totals were
aove the prescried ench
mar#" &t >engurle>engurla
poor association was noticed
etween the oserved and
estimated rainfall totals"
&nnexure *+ Tale
*V
c" 2lope of
regression
c" +"I to *"7 c" &t fve locations (7J per cent
C) derived northeast
monsoon rainfall totals were
elow the prescried
enchmar#"
&nnexure *+ Tale
*V
W$nte,
,&$n.&**
0inter monsoon
total rainfall (mm)
a" ;orrelation
coe<cient
a" U+"4 a" &t V+ per cent C (** out of
77) of the locations, derived
winter rainfall totals were
aove the prescried
enchmar#" &t two locations
(,apoli and 0a#awali), it
was found that there was
asolutely no relation
etween the oserved and
derived estimates"
&nnexure ** Tale
*G
" ,@Index " U+"I "&t V+ per cent C (** out of
77) of the locations, derived
winter rainfall totals were
aove the prescried
enchmar#" &t two of the
locations (,apoli and
0a#awali), it was found that
there was asolutely no
relation etween the
oserved and derived data
estimates"
&nnexure ** Tale
*G
c" 2lope of
regression
c" +"I to *"7 c" ,erived rainfall amounts
during the winter season
were found to e elow the
prescried enchmar# at GI
per cent C (*V out of 77
locations) of locations"
&nnexure ** Tale
*G
24 | P a g e
We&t+e,
E0ente0ent
P&,&%ete,s
e0&*4&te5 /$t+
,&t$on&*e
St&t$st$'&* too*s
4se5 $n t+e
e0&*4&t$on /$t+
,&t$on&*e
Ben'+%&,-s /$t+
R&t$on&*e,&t$on&*e
S4%%&,6 o. Res4*ts,es4*ts
Re.e,en'e t&)*e G
E84,eAnne@4,e
,e.e,en'e
S4%%e,
,&$n.&**
2ummer monsoon
total rainfall (mm)
a" ;orrelation
coe<cient
a" U+"4 a" &t E* per cent C (6 out of 77
locations) of the locations,
T.32 derived summer
rainfall totals were aove
the prescried enchmar#"
&nnexure *7 Tale
*4
" ,@Index " U+"I "&t EV per cent C (*+ out of
77) of the locations, derived
summer rainfall totals were
aove the enchmar#"
&nnexure *7 Tale
*4
c" 2lope of
regression
c" +"I to *"7 c" derived ,erived rainfall
amounts during the summer
season are elow the
prescried enchmar# at 44
per cent C (*4 out of 77
locations) of locations"
&nnexure *7 Tale
*4
D&$*6 T%&@ ,aily maximum
temperature (H;)
a" ;orrelation
coe<cient
a" U+"4 a" &t *4 locations (44 per cent
C of the locations) the daily
maximum temperatures
were aove the prescried
enchmar#"
&nnexure *J Tale
*I
" ,@Index " U+"I "&t *I locations (I7 per cent
C of the locations) the daily
maximum temperatures
were aove the prescried
enchmar#"
&nnexure *J Tale
*I
c" 2#ill score test c" I+C c" The accuracy ranged
etween 4VL@64 per centC"
The accuracy was aove 6+
per cent C at ** locations"
The average accuracy of all
the locations is IG per cent
C"
&nnexure *J Tale
*I
Wee-*6
T%&@
5ean wee#ly
maximum
temperature (H;)
a" ;orrelation
coe<cient
a" U+"4 a" &t 7* locations (6V per cent
C of the locations) derived
wee#ly maximum
temperatures were aove
the prescried enchmar#"
&nnexure *E Tale
*6
" ,@Index " U+"I "&t 7* locations (6V per cent
C of the locations) wee#ly
maximum temperatures
were aove the prescried
enchmar#"
&nnexure *E Tale
*6
25 | P a g e
We&t+e,
E0ente0ent
P&,&%ete,s
e0&*4&te5 /$t+
,&t$on&*e
St&t$st$'&* too*s
4se5 $n t+e
e0&*4&t$on /$t+
,&t$on&*e
Ben'+%&,-s /$t+
R&t$on&*e,&t$on&*e
S4%%&,6 o. Res4*ts,es4*ts
Re.e,en'e t&)*e G
E84,eAnne@4,e
,e.e,en'e
c" 2#ill
socrescore test
c" I+C c" The derived wee#ly
maximum temperature were
found to possess have an
accuracy level of 6+ per cent
C at G test locations (74 per
centC) while in the other **
(V+ per cent C) a range of
I+L@6+ per centC accuracy
was oserved"
&nnexure *E Tale
*6
D&$*6 T%$n ,aily minimum
temperature (H;)
a" ;orrelation
coe<cient
a" U+"4 a" &t *4 locations (44 per cent
C of the locations) the
derived daily minimum
temperatures were aove
the presrcriedprescried
enchmar#"
&nnexure 7*Tale
7G
" ,@Index " U+"I "&t *4 locations (44 per cent
C of the locations) the daily
minimum temperatures were
found to e aove the
prescried enchmar#"
&nnexure 7*Tale
7G
c" 2#ill
socrescore test
c" I+C c" &t *J sites (V6 per centC of
the locations) the derived
daily minimum temperatures
were found to e aove the
prescried enchmar#"
&nnexure 7*Tale
7G
Wee-*6
T%$n
5ean wee#ly
minimum
temperature (H;)
a" ;orrelation
coe<cient
a" U+"4 a" &t *I sites (I7 per centC of
the locations) the derived
wee#ly minimum
temperatures were aove
the prescried enchmar#"
&nnexure 77Tale
74
" ,@Index " U+"I "&t *I sites (I7 per cent C of
the locations) derived
wee#ly minimum
temperatures were aove
the prescried enchmar#"
&nnexure 77Tale
74
c" 2#ill scoocre
test
c" I+ per cent C c" &t ** sites (V+ per cent C of
the locations) the derived
wee#ly minimum
temperatures were aove
the prescried enchmar#"
&nnexure 77Tale
74
26 | P a g e

W&6 .o,/&,5
The errors in derived data estimated weather parameters have een validated against oserved data sets in a
domain where natural variaility is less compared to other regions of the country" The variaility in the study area is
in the range of 7+ to JV per cent C" (or instance, the variaility in the rainfall during monsoon season in diDerent
meteorological su@divisions of the country ranges from S 7+ to Z I+ per cent C ((igure *I)" The coe<cient of
variation is high in 0est %a$asthan (ZE6 per cent) where the normal monsoon rainfall is only aout JV cm" Gu$arat,
3un$a, and %ayalaseema are few The otherother regions which that have a high coe<cient of variation (J+ per
cent) are Gu$arat, 3un$a and %ayalaseema" These are also regions which receive comparatively small amounts of
monsoon rain" =ut the 0est ;oast, &ssam, 0est =engal, and 2outh 9erala, which receive large monsoon rain (*++ to
7V+ cm), have small coe<cients of variation" In &ssam and 0est =engal the coe<cient of variation is only aout *+
per cent" The large spatial variaility in rainfall, which determines the countryYs economy, necessitates a more
comprehensive validation of the derivate data estimates in the case of rainfall amounts across the diversifed agro@
ecological Bones of the country efore suggesting a its wider adaptation, and and also in various related products
including li#e weather ased crop insurance"
27 | P a g e
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press" 'ew /or#, -2&"
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2./G%." &gron" 8" I4KJ64L@E+7"
,as, 3"9" (*6II)" The monsoons" 'ations =oo# Trust, 'ew ,elhi" pp 7*7"
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&ustralilan&ustralian daily rainfall analysis" 8" &ppl" 5eteor", JI, J+L@JI"
!all, T" (*666)" 3recipitation forecasingforecasting using a neural networ#" 0eather and (orecas(orecast", *EK JJIL@
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drought" (ield ;rops %es" VK7JL@EE"
9iniry, 8"%", 8"%" 0illiams, %")" >anderlip, 8"," &twood, ,";" %eicos#y, 8" 5ulli#en, 0"8" ;ox, !"8" 5ascagni, 2"1" !ollinger,
and 0"8" 0ieold (*664)" 1valuation of two models for nine -"2" locations" &gron" 8" I6K E7*L@E7G"
9oayashi, 9" and 5"-" 2alam (7+++)" ;omparing simulated and measured values using 5ean s:uare deviation and
its components" &gronomy 8" 67KJEVL@JV7"
5ilesi, ;", >" Geethala#shmi, G"2" %ao, 3" 2anthihushan ;howdary, &" 5ichaelis, (" 5elton, and !" !ashimoto (7+**)"
3roducing >alid 5eteorological ,ata -sing Terrestrial .servation and 3rediction 2ystem (T.32) and
1cological (orecasting" InK &2;I (&dministrative 2taD ;ollege of India), 0eather InsuranceK &ddressing the %is#
5itigation 'eeds of 0eather 2ensitive Industries in India" !yderaad, India 7I L 76 8anuary 7+**" 8ournal of
5anagement, E* (*)K *+7L@*+4"
5ood, &"5", ("&" Grayill, and ,";" =oes (*64E)" Introduction to the theory of statistics, Jrd ed" 5cGraw@!ill, 'ew
/or#"
'emani, %", !" !ashimoto, 3" >otava, 0" 0ang, &" 5ichaelis, ;" 5ilesi, 2" !iatt, and 5" 0hite (7++6)" 5onitoring and
forecasting ecosystem dynamics using the Terrestrial .servation and 3rediction 2ystem (T.32)" %emote
2ensing of 1nvironment **J(4)K *E64L@*V+6"
28 | P a g e
3er#ins, 2"1", &"8" 3itman, '"8" !olroo#, and 8" 5c&neney (7++4)" 1valuation of the &%E climate modelsY simulated
daily maximum temperatuaretemperature, minimum temperature and precipitation over &ustralia using
proaility density functions" 8ournal of climate, 7+K EJVGL@EJ4G"
Teo, /"!", ;"&" =eyrouty, and 1"1" Gur (*667)" 1valuating a model for predicting nutrient upta#e y rice during
vegetative growth" &gron" 8" IEK *+GEL@*+4+"
>ashisth, &", ,as, ,"9", =hagawati, G" and 2harma, 3"9 (7++I)" &ccuracy of weather forecast for semi@arid climate of
,elhi for agricultural management practices" 8ournal of &gricultural 3hysics, IKV*L@VI"
0allach, ," and =" Go<net (*6I6)" 5ean s:uared error of predication as a criterion for evaluating and comparing
system models" 1col" 5odell" EEK766L@J+G"
0i#armpapraharn, ;" and 1" 9ositsa#ulchai (7+*+)" 1valuation of .%/Z& 7+++ and ;1%12@%ice models under
potential growth condition in the ;entral 3lain of Thailand" Thai 8ournal of &gricultural 2ciences, EJ(*)K *4L@76"
0orld 5eteorological .rganiBation (05.) (7+*+)" Guide to &gricultural 5eteorological 3ractices" 05. 'o" *JE,
Geneva, 2witBerland"
29 | P a g e
ACRONYMS7
&I; &gricultural Insurance ;ompany of India )imited
&I;%3&5 &ll India ;oordinated %esearch 3ro$ect on &grometeorology
;%I,& ;entral %esearch Institute for ,ry land &griculture
,@I Index of agreement
GIZ ,eutsche Gesellschaft f`r Internationale Zusammenareit
I;&% Indian ;ouncil of &gricultural %esearch
);2 )ac# of correlation weighted y the standard deviation
5&31 5ean asolute percentage error
5=1 5ean ias error
'&2& 'ational &eronautics and 2pace &dministration
'.( 'ormaliBed o$ective function
r ;orrelation coe<cient
%521 %oot mean s:uare error
2= 2:uared ias
2score 2#ill 2core Test
T.32 Terrestrial .servation and 3rediction 2ystem
T2 Threat 2core
!9 2core !anssen and 9uipers (True s#ill) 2core
%2 %atio 2core
30 | P a g e
GLOSSARY*oss&,6 o. Te,%s7
DAIn5e@K Index of agreement is a measure of deviation etween estimated and measured in relationship to the
scattering of the oserved data" It has values from + to *, where * is perfect estimation"
MAPEK 5ean asolute percentage error is the error associated with estimation expressed in per cent" 5&31 is Bero
for a perfect ft" It has no upper limit" 3rolem arises with small denominators (%ainfall)"
MBEK 5ean ias error is the diDerence etween the means of estimated and measured"
NOFK 'ormaliBed o$ective function" The value of '.(N+ indicates a perfect match etween oserved and
estimated" '.(S* means estimated error is less than standard deviation around oserved mean"
RMSEK %oot mean s:uare error represents the mean distance etween estimated and measured"
SDK 2tandard deviation shows the variation existing in a sample from the average" & low value indicates data points
tend to e very close to the mean"
S*o(e o. t+e ,e8,ess$on *$ne indicates the relative agreement etween the oserved and predicted values" &
value near unity indicates a good agreement etween the two" !owever, it has values ranging from + to T"
TOPSK Terrestrial .servation and 3rediction 2ystem is a data and modelingmodelling software system designed y
'&2& to seamlessly integrate data from satellite, aircraft, and ground sensors with weatherFclimate models and
application models to expeditiously produce operational nowcasts and forecasts of ecological conditions" T.32
provides reliale data on current and predicted ecosystem conditions through automation of the data retrieval, pre@
processing, integration, and modelingmodelling steps, allowing T.32 data products to e used in an operational
setting for a range of applications"
S-$** S'o,e Test7 The 2score matric metric calculates the cumulative minimum value of two distriutions of each
inned values, therey measuring the common area etween two 3,(s" If a model estimates the oserved
conditions perfectly, the s#ill score (2score) will e:ual one, which is the total sum of the proaility at each in
centercentre in a given 3,(" If a model estimates the oserved 3,( poorly, it will have a s#ill score close to Bero with
negligile overlap etween the oserved and modeledmodelled 3,(s" This is a very simple measure that provides a
roust and comparale measure of the relative similarity etween estimated and oserved 3,(s"
T+,e&t S'o,e7 Threat score (T2) measured the fraction of oserved and F or T.32 estimated events that were
correctly estimated" & rainy day is defned in the present study as a day with rainfall of U 7"V mm" The value of
threat score ranges etween + to *, + indicates least accuracy of T.32 estimate, and * indicate perfect estimate" It
explains aout how well did the T.32 estimate yes event correspond to oserved yes event"
31 | P a g e
H&nssen &n5 K4$(e,s :T,4e s-$**; s'o,e7 The value of !9 score ranges etween @* to *, + indicates no s#ill and *
indicate perfect score" It explains how well did the T.32 estimate separatethe T.32 estimate separated the yes
event from the no event"
R&t$o S'o,e7 It ranges etween + to *, + indicates no s#ill and * indicate perfect score"
32 | P a g e
Anne@4,eANNE3URE
T&)*e 6Anne@4,e "7 &ccuracy of T.32 in sensing ,&$n6 5&6s &n5 non ,&$n6 5&6s during 2outhwest0 monsoon period at
diDerent locations
:A; R&$n6 5&6s
St&t$on
Est$%&te
5 ,&$n6
5&6s
O)se,0e
5 ,&$n6
5&6s
Co,,e't*6
est$%&te5 )6
TOPS
W,on8*6
est$%&te5 )6
TOPS
Not
est$%&te5
)6 TOPS
No o.
D&6s
D
No o.
D&6s
D
No o.
D&6s
D
A-o*& E7 JE 76 IG *7 JG V *G
A*$)&8+ I+ 4* GI 6V *J *I J V
A4,&n8&)&5 EI J4 7V GG 7E GE *J V*
Bee5 E* J7 J* 64 6 76 * J
D&(o*$ 67 6+ IG 6G G 4 E E
I8&t(4,$ II IG IV *++ 7 J + *
H&*n& E7 J4 JG 6I G *4 * J
K&,B&t II IV IJ 64 V G 7 J
M&+&)&*es+/
&,
6E 6V II 6J G G 4 I
N&8(4, V+ EV J4 IJ *J 7I I 7+
N$(+&5 EJ JV JV 6I I 7J * 7
L&t4, EG JG J+ IV *G EE V *I
Os%&n&)&5 E4 J6 JI 66 6 77 * *
P&,)+&n$ E7 JI 76 4G *J JJ 6 J7
P4ne EG E* JG II *+ 7V V *E
R&+4,$ JE 76 7+ 4+ *E EI 6 E7
R&tn&8$,$ I4 IE I* 64 G 4 J E
S$n5e/&+$ VE V* EG 6+ I *V V **
So*&(4, JI J* 74 IV ** JG V *I
!en84,*e!en8
4,*&
I6 IJ G6 IE 7+ 7E *E *6
W&-&/&*$ 6* 6+ I7 67 6 *+ 4 6
Y&0&t%&* EG EJ JI II I *I V *E
A0e,&8e 514 521 4<1<5 ?<123 "#136 2315< 51"4 "315
5
33 | P a g e
34 | P a g e
:B; D,6 5&6s
St&t$on
Est$%&te5
5,6 5&6s
O)se,0e
5 5,6
5&6s
Co,,e't*6
est$%&te5 )6
TOPS
W,on8*6
est$%&te5
)6 TOPS
Not
est$%&te5
)6 TOPS
No o.
D&6s
D
No o.
D&6s
D
No
o.
D&6s
D
A-o*& I+ II 4G IG V V *7 *E
A*$)&8+ E7 V* JI 4V J G *J 7V
A4,&n8&)&5 4E IV G* 47 *J *V 7E 7I
Bee5 I* 6+ I+ 6+ * * 6 *+
D&(o*$ J+ J7 7G I* E ** G *6
I8&t(4,$ JE JG JE 6J + * 7 4
H&*n& I+ IV 46 6J * * G 4
K&,B&t JE J4 J7 IG 7 G V *E
M&+&)&*es+/&
,
7I 74 7* 46 4 7V G 7*
N&8(4, 47 44 GE IJ I *+ *J *4
N$(+&5 46 I4 46 6* * * I 6
L&t4, 4G IG 4+ I7 V G *G *I
Os%&n&)&5 4V IJ 4V 6+ * * 6 *+
P&,)+&n$ I+ IE 4* IV 6 ** *J *V
P4ne 4G I* 4+ I4 V G *+ *J
R&+4,$ II 6J 46 IV 6 6 *E *V
R&tn&8$,$ JV JI JJ IV J I G *V
S$n5e/&+$ GI 4* GJ I6 V 4 I **
So*&(4, IE 6* 46 I4 V V ** *J
!en84,*e!en8
4,*&
JJ J6 *6 V+ *E JE 7+ V+
W&-&/&*$ J* J7 7E 4J 4 77 6 74
Y&0&t%&* 4G 46 4* 6+ V 4 I *+
A0e,&8e 5?1<6 64 56155 ?312

51"4 < "#13


6
"61
3
35 | P a g e
T&)*e Anne@4,e 27 &ccuracy of T.32 in estimatinged light and heavy rain events
St&t$on
Fo, t+e ent$,e 6Ye&,
Fo, t+e %onsoon
se&son
I"# %% J"#%% I"# %% J"#%%
A-o*& G6"+E G4"V7 4J"7I G6"EI
A*$)&8+ 6*"*J I7"7V 67"EI IV"*7
A4,&n&8&)&5 J4"** G+"6J JI"+* G+"IE
Bee5 67"V6 6G"V+ 67"EI 6G"JV
D&(o*$ 6*"EE IJ"7I 6E"+7 IG"E4
I8&t(4,$ 6J"6E 6V"7+ 6E"J7 6G"7*
H&*n& 6+"6E 6G"4G 6*"7+ 64"J*
K&,B&t 6J"4E 6+"I+ 6J"GG 6*"+*
M&+&)&*es+/&, I*"EJ 4+"++ IE"4+ 47"*J
N&8(4, G6"V4 GJ"6* 4J"JV GE"IG
N$(+&5 6E"G4 6V"IJ 6E"7G 6G"+7
L&t4, GE"4G GI"I6 4+"IJ G6"64
Os%&n&)&5 6J"6+ 6V"44 6V"+6 6V"64
P&,)+&n$ G+"4+ GV"GG GV"E+ GI"*6
P4ne 47"VE 4I"4J 4I"4J I*"+V
R&+4,$ VV"+I G6"6G VI"JI 4*"6E
R&tn&8$,$ 6*"EJ IJ"4J 6V"E4 II"+J
S$n5e/&+$ 4G"4+ 4J"+V I*"V* 4G"GE
So*&(4, GV"VI 44"++ 4+"G4 IJ"*+
!en84,*e!en84,*
&
V6"JI V7"64 G7"GJ VE"+I
W&-&/&*$ IJ"JV G+"6V IV"*G G*"I+
Y&0&t%&* 4V"E7 4E"*4 I+"6E 4G"GV
A0e,&8e 14 145 ?#13# <124
36 | P a g e
Anne@4,e 3T&)*e ?7 &ccuracy of T.32 in estimating rainfall of diDerent intensities
D$st,$'ts
K25 %% I25 &n5 K 5# %% I5# &n5 K 5 %% I5 &n5 K "## %% I"## &n5 K "25 %% I"25 &n5 K "5# %%
O)se,0
e5
Est$%&t
e5
D
O)se,0
e5
Est$%&t
e5
D
O)se,0
e5
Est$%&t
e5
D
O)se,0
e5
Est$%&t
e5
D
O)se,0
e5
Est$%&t
e5
D
O)se,0
e5
Est$%&t
e5
D
&#ola VVG E4I
IV"6
4
4J JJ
EV"7
*
77 V 77"4J V + +"++ * + +"++ + + a
&liagh 4VG G6J
6*"G
4
*7G *+7
I+"6
V
GE EG 4*"II J7 *4
VJ"*
J
7* ** V7"JI ** J
74"7
4
&uranagaad&uran
gaad
V*6 E*+
46"+
+
VV V 6"+6 *6 E 7*"+V G + +"++ + + a + + a
=eed EJ4 EJ*
6I"G
J
I+ G4
IJ"4
V
7+ ** VV"++ 6 J
JJ"J
J
7 7
*++"+
+
+ + a
,apoli IEE 4II
6J"J
G
7E6 7*+
IE"J
E
6G 4+ 47"67 G7 E6
46"+
J
E+ 7* V7"V+ 7E **
EV"I
J
Igatpuri E+6 E+V
66"+
7
*JV **J
IJ"4
+
VE EG IV"*6 7I *6
G4"I
G
4 7 7I"V4 I V
G7"V
+
8alna EJ4 EJV
66"V
E
GI VG
I7"J
V
7E *I 4V"++ 6 G
GG"G
4
E 7 V+"++ + + a
9ar$at 4EG 47*
6G"G
V
7J4 *6E
I*"I
G
*+I IJ 4G"IV G7 E*
GG"*
J
JE 7V 4J"VJ *J *+
4G"6
7
5ahaaleshwar 7EJ *6+
4I"*
6
*7V VV
EE"+
+
V4 77 JI"G+ JG I
77"7
7
*7 7 *G"G4 *+ J
J+"+
+
'agpur E67 J6V
I+"7
I
I4 JE
J6"+
I
J* I 7V"I* E + +"++ J * JJ"JJ + + a
'iphad 74G 74V
66"G
E
JV J7
6*"E
J
V V
*++"+
+
7 *
V+"+
+
* + +"++ * + +"++
)atur E4G J6J
I7"V
G
VG 7G
EG"E
J
*4 * V"II *+ 7
7+"+
+
V + +"++ + + a
.smanaad VIJ V4J
6I"7
I
I6 4*
46"4
I
*G 6 VG"7V 4 E
V4"*
E
V * 7+"++ + + a
3arhani VEI EEV
I*"7
+
IE JG
E7"I
G
*G J *I"4V *J 7
*V"J
I
7 + +"++ 7 *
V+"+
+
3une 6++ 44G
IG"7
7
VJ 76
VE"4
7
7G *4 GV"JI G V
IJ"J
J
+ + a + + a
%ahuri EGI J4+
46"+
G
E6 *7
7E"E
6
*6 E 7*"+V 4 + +"++ * + +"++ * + +"++
%atnagiri 4V6 4+J
67"G
7
*47 *E7
I7"V
G
IV V6 G6"E* E6 J4
4V"V
*
7V *6 4G"++ 7+ *7
G+"+
+
2indewahi G7J VE6
II"*
7
**4 G7
V7"6
6
J6 7* VJ"IV *E V
JV"4
*
E * 7V"++ J + +"++
2olapur E6J EVG
67"E
6
EI *6
J6"V
I
*G J *I"4V J 7
GG"G
4
* + +"++ + + a
>engurle>engurla IEJ G+6
47"7
E
*4V G+
JE"7
6
4I 7G JJ"JJ E* **
7G"I
J
J* ** JV"EI *+ J
J+"+
+
0a#awali GJ7 V+6
I+"V
E
7J7 6I
E7"7
E
*+I JI JV"*6 E6 *+
7+"E
*
JE G *4"GV 7+ E
7+"+
+
/avatmal GV4 V4*
IG"6
*
6E VI
G*"4
+
7I *4 G+"4* I J
J4"V
+
V E I+"++ J + +"++
37 | P a g e
Anne@4,e 4Tale 6K 3erformance of T.32 in sensing rainfall events
St&t$on
Fo, t+e ent$,e 6e&, Fo, t+e %onsoon se&son
T+,e&t
s'o,e
H&nssen &n5
K4$(e,s
s'o,e
R&t$o
S'o,e
T+,e&t
s'o,e
H&nssen &n5
K4$(e,s
s'o,e
R&t$o
S'o,e
A-o*& +"V4 +"4G +"6J +"G7 +"4* +"IV
A*$)&8+ +"4V +"I4 +"6J +"I+ +"G6 +"IG
A4,&n8&)&5 +"JI +"V7 +"I4 +"J6 +"JV +"G6
Bee5 +"G4 +"67 +"6V +"4J +"IV +"6*
D&(o*$ +"I+ +"I4 +"6E +"I6 +"4G +"67
I8&t(4,$ +"6E +"64 +"6I +"6G +"6* +"64
H&*n& +"4E +"6J +"6G +"IJ +"6+ +"6E
K&,B&t +"IV +"6J +"6G +"6* +"I7 +"6E
M&+&)&*es+/
&,
+"4I +"IJ +"6J +"I4 +"4* +"6+
N&8(4, +"VG +"G6 +"6* +"GE +"GG +"IJ
N$(+&5 +"44 +"6V +"64 +"4I +"II +"67
L&t4, +"V+ +"4* +"6+ +"VI +"GG +"I7
Os%&n&)&5 +"4+ +"67 +"6V +"I+ +"II +"67
P&,)+&n$ +"E6 +"GV +"6+ +"VG +"G+ +"I7
P4ne +"G7 +"4I +"6J +"GI +"47 +"IG
R&+4,$ +"EJ +"G* +"6* +"E4 +"VV +"I*
R&tn&8$,$ +"IV +"6* +"6G +"6+ +"IG +"6E
S$n5e/&+$ +"GI +"I+ +"6J +"44 +"4I +"I6
So*&(4, +"VV +"47 +"6J +"G7 +"47 +"IG
!en84,*e!en8
4,*&
+"VI +"GG +"IV +"G4 +"JJ +"4J
W&-&/&*$ +"4V +"I* +"67 +"I* +"4* +"I4
Y&0&t%&* +"GE +"44 +"6J +"4J +"44 +"I6
A0e,&8e #166 #1? #1<3 #13 #12 #1?
38 | P a g e
Anne@4,e 5T&)*e "#7 1valuation of T.32 derived 5&$*6 ,&$n.&** totals against oserved at diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on
Co,
,
RMS
E
MB
E
MAPE DAI
St5
De0
:%;
St5
De0
:e;
S*o(e
o.
,e8,ess
$on *$ne
NOF
* A-o*& +"4 G"I +"J 76I*"6 +"I 4"6 6"* +"G+ J"J
7 A*$)&8+ +"6 *+"* @+"7 E7I7"6 +"6 7*"G *6"7 *"++ *"G
J
A4,&n&8&)&5A4,&n
8&)&5
+"J **"J +"7 466J +"E 4"I *+"V +"77 V"V
E Bee5 +"6 E"V +"7 JJG*"4 +"6 6"E 4"6 *"+V 7"7
V D&(o*$ +"6 6"I @+"6 7VI4"7 * 74"G 7E"7 *"+4 *
G I8&t(4,$ * J"* @+"4 4EI"* * 7G"J 7J"6 *"*+ +"E
4 H&*n& +"6 J +"7 764J"G * I"4 4"6 *"+J *"E
I K&,B&t * 4"7 @+"I 7J7* * 76"6 7G"7 *"*7 +"4
6 M&+&)&*es+/&, +"4 7J"G +"I JG6+ +"I 7V"I J*"6 +"VG 7"7
*+ N&8(4, +"4 I"4 +"V E4*J"V +"I I"6 **"7 +"V7 J"E
** N$(+&5 * *"V +"* *6GV"J * I"7 4"V *"+I +"I
*7 L&t4, +"4 G"G +"E GI76"I +"I 6"* I"I +"4V 7"6
*J Os%&n&)&5 * 7 +"J J*E*"* * I"V 4"I *"+G +"6
*E P&,)+&n$ +"I I"7 +"7 V+E7"E +"6 **"V **"I +"4E J"*
*V P4ne +"I E"4 + *6JG"J +"6 I"* 4"6 +"IV 7"*
*G R&+4,$ +"G G"6 +"J V4GE +"I 4"6 4"G +"G7 J"6
*4 R&tn&8$,$ +"6 6"G @+"4 *JJ4"I * 7E"* 7*"4 *"+7 *"*
*I S$n5e/&+$ +"6 V"I @+"E 74JV"4 +"6 *7"4 *+"I *"+E *"4
*6 So*&(4, +"I E"4 + JJEE"E +"6 4"7 G +"6+ 7"G
7+ !en84,*e!en84,*& +"V 7J"* +"J
**44E"
7
+"G 7*"I 77"G +"EE J
7* W&-&/&*$ +"I *V"I @+"* J6I+"E +"6 7V"4 7E"4 +"IE *"4
77 Y&0&t%&* +"6 V"E @+"7 7V*E"4 +"6 **"V *+"V +"64 *"6
39 | P a g e
Anne@4,e 6T&)*e ""7 1valuation of T.32 derived /ee-*6 ,&$n.&** totals against oserved at diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,,
RMS
E
MBE MAPE
MAP
E L
DAI
St5
De0:
%;
St5
De0:e
;
S*o(e
o.
,e8,ess
$on *$ne
NOF
* A-o*& +"I *6"J 7"* GG*I"J *+*"E +"6 76"* JE"G *"+ *"E
7 A*$)&8+ +"6 JJ"V @*"E *+VJG V7"6 * 64"4 6*"7 +"6 +"I
J
A4,&n&8&)&5A4,&n
8&)&5
+"4 7G"* *"V G7V+"I 6*"* +"I 76"G JV"G +"I *"I
E Bee5 +"6 *E *"7
*+GJ7"
7
EJ"* +"6 J7"V 76"G +"I *
V D&(o*$ +"6 EV"E @G"7 47+6"4 J6"V * *J6"V *7E"* +"I +"4
G I8&t(4,$ * *J"4 @V 7+7J"J *V"6 * *JJ"4 *77"V +"6 +"7
4 H&*n& * I"E *"*
*+EEJ"
6
JE"V * JJ"* J*"* +"6 +"G
I K&,B&t * J+"6 @V"V IGEV"* 74"* * *EI"J *J7"4 +"6 +"V
6 M&+&)&*es+/&, +"I 6V"4 V"6 6++*"I V*"+ +"6 *EE"I *4E"E *"+ *"J
*+ N&8(4, +"I 7J"I J"4 4II+"6 4G"V +"6 JE"G EJ"I *"*+ *"J
** N$(+&5 * V +"I E66J"V JI"J * JJ"I J7"* +"6 +"E
*7 L&t4, +"6 *G"J 7"V
*7JII"
V
4V"6 +"6 JJ"7 JE"G +"6 *
*J Os%&n&)&5 * V"I *"I
*+E7I"
I
V7"E * J7"4 J*"J +"6 +"E
*E P&,)+&n$ +"6 *4"J *"* G*JJ"E 6G"6 * EE"G EV"6 *"+ +"6
*V P4ne +"6 **"I @+"J 7I6*"4 VG"4 * JJ"V JJ"V +"6 +"4
*G R&+4,$ +"6 *V *"6
*+V4G"
V
*+I"I +"6 76"V J+"E +"6 *"7
*4 R&tn&8$,$ * JE"7 @E"6 *6IE"G 7I"4 * **G"V *+4"G +"6 +"G
*I S$n5e/&+$ +"6 *4"6 @7"V G*I6"I EE"J * V+"* EE +"I +"4
*6 So*&(4, +"I *E"4 @+"7 67E*"I I7"I +"6 74 7E"7 +"I *"7
7+ !en84,*e!en84,*& +"G 64 7"*
JGJJ7"
*
7VJ"7 +"I *+4"V **J"G +"4 *"I
7* W&-&/&*$ +"6 V*"G @* IGII G*"+ * *J+"7 *74"V +"6 +"6
77 Y&0&t%&* * *J"J @*"E E67E"J VJ"+ * EJ"E J6"4 +"6 +"4
40 | P a g e
L 5&31 calculated for wee#s having wee#ly total rainfall U *"+ mm"
41 | P a g e
Anne@4,e T&)*e "27 1valuation of T.32 derived %ont+*6 ,&$n.&** totals against oserved at diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,, RMSE MBE MAPE DAI
St5
De0:%;
St5
De0:e;
S*o(e
o.
,e8,ess
$on *$ne
NOF
* &#ola +"6 E*"E 6"* 4EIJ +"6 I*"6 6G"7 *"+4 +"4
7 &liagh * I*"7 @G 744JI * 7II"J 74G"V +"67 +"E
J
&uranagaad&uran
gaad
+"6 E*"E G"G
*VI+I"
7
+"6 I6"7 64"*
+"6I
+"4
E =eed * J+"E V"E
7I4G+"
6
* 64"V I6"7
+"I4
+"V
V ,apoli +"6 *V+"E @74
*V*7J"
I
* EV7"G E+J"G
+"IE
+"V
G Igatpuri * EE"* @7*"4 VV6E"G * E7G"J JI6"7 +"6* +"7
4 8alna * 7+"G E"G
J*66*"
J
* 6G"I 6*"J
+"67
+"J
I 9ar$at * 6E"7 @7J"G
J+*V*"
6
* EG6"4 E7E
+"I6
+"J
6 5ahaaleshwar +"6 *6I"I 7V"G
*GE7+"
6
* V77"* VI4"6
*"+G
+"G
*+ 'agpur +"6 V6"J *V"6
*G77G"
E
+"6 *+J"7 *J*"7
*"*V
+"I
** 'iphad * *+"I J"G I*GG"G * IV IV"J *"++ +"7
*7 )atur +"6 J4"I *+"4
*IV4E"
G
* 6G"G *+4"E
*"+V
+"G
*J .smanaad * *V"7 4"4
76+GJ"
G
* *++"E 66"*
+"6I
+"7
*E 3arhani * JJ"E E"6
*J*6*"
6
* *76"4 *JE"*
*"++
+"E
*V 3une * 7I"6 @*"V 76V6"6 * 6E"E 6V"7 +"6G +"E
*G %ahuri +"6 JE"7 I"J
*EJG7"
J
* 4I"J IE"G
+"66
+"G
*4 %atnagiri * *+*"I @7*"* 74*+"G * JG+"4 JJE"4 +"I6 +"E
*I 2indewahi * EE"6 @*+"I
*7+J+"
V
* *E6"7 *J*"4
+"IV
+"E
*6 2olapur +"6 JV"G @+"I G44I"J +"6 44"7 4*"7 +"I7 +"G
7+ >engurle>engurla +"6 *47"* 6"7 JEEJ* +"6 JEV"4 JVG"6 +"6* +"4
42 | P a g e
7* 0a#awali +"6 *VE"4 @E"7
7++J+"
6
* EJ7"7 E*6"G
+"6*
+"G
77 /avatmal * JJ"I @G"J G6I4"I * *7G"I **V"G +"II +"E
43 | P a g e
Anne@4,e ?T&)*e "37 1valuation of T.32 derived &nn4&* ,&$n.&** totals against oserved at diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,, RMSE MBE MAPE DAI
St5
De0:%;
St5
De0:e;
S*o(e
o.
,e8,ess
$on *$ne
NOF
* A-o*& +"6 *E+"J *+6"V *I"7 +"6 7EE"G 7*7"I +"I* +"7
7 A*$)&8+ +"4 EEI"E @47"E *+"J +"I E4I"G G+J"6 +"IJ +"7
J
A4,&n&8&)&5A4,&n
8&)&5
+"4 *EV"* 46"V *I"E +"I *IV"6 *VJ"4
+"GE
+"7
E Bee5 +"4 *VV"6 GE"4 *4"7 +"I 77*"6 *G4"4 +"VG +"7
V D&(o*$ +"E 6*6"I @J7E"* 6 +"4 4VI"E IE4"4 +"EJ +"J
G I8&t(4,$ * 7GG"G @7G+"I I"E * GG*"E G*V"G +"6J +"*
4 H&*n& +"6 IV VV"7 *+"I * 7*7"J *66"7 +"I6 +"*
I K&,B&t +"6 V*+"* @7IJ"4 I"E +"6 4+7 IJ6 *"+7 +"*
6 M&+&)&*es+/&, +"V VG7"7 J+G"G *7"* +"V 7+6"* V64 *"E+ +"*
*+ N&8(4, +"4 7JE *6* 7*"V +"4 *G6"V 7+I"7 +"6* +"7
** N$(+&5 * V*"V EJ"I G"6 * *IV"6 *47"J +"67 +"*
*7 L&t4, +"I *6J"G *7I"V *6"G +"I 7*7"7 7E+"7 +"I6 +"7
*J Os%&n&)&5 * **+ 67 *J"7 +"6 7EI"7 7JE"J +"6* +"*
*E P&,)+&n$ +"I *I+"G VI"J *V"* +"6 767"* 76E"4 +"I7 +"7
*V P4ne +"6 *V4"6 @*I *4"* +"6 7II"G JJ6"I *"+J +"7
*G R&+4,$ +"I *V6"E 66"* 7*"E +"I *IJ"* 7+J"I +"I4 +"7
*4 R&tn&8$,$ +"G V67"V @7V7"4 6"4 +"I VII"I 47*"G +"I+ +"7
*I S$n5e/&+$ +"4 7J6"4 @*76"* *7 +"I 77G"4 74*"4 +"46 +"7
*6 So*&(4, +"4 *G7 @6"6 77"E +"I 776 7++"I +"G* +"7
7+ !en84,*e!en84,*& +"V E6*"6 **+"V *7"* +"4 V*4"I V*+"E +"V7 +"7
7* W&-&/&*$ +"4 I6V"E @E6"I *I"E +"I **7E"* *7IJ"* +"I+ +"J
77 Y&0&t%&* +"6 *EE"E @4V"J 6"J +"6 7E7"7 7J4"4 +"IE +"*
44 | P a g e
Anne@4,e <T&)*e "47 1valuation of T.32 derived So4t+/est %onsoon ,&$n.&** totals against oserved at diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,,
RMS
E
MBE
MAP
E
DAI
St5
De0:%;
St5
De0:e;
S*o(e
o.
,e8,ess
$on *$ne
NOF
* A-o*& +"I GV"E 7V"7 JI"* +"I 4I"J 67"E +"II +"E
7 A*$)&8+ +"I *JV"G @76"* *J"* +"6 7JG"J 7EJ"V +"I7 +"7
J
A4,&n&8&)&5A4,&n
8&)&5
+"4 GG"G *E"I JJ"G +"I IE"6 6J"4
+"VI
+"E
E Bee5 +"6 EI"4 J"J 7I"7 +"6 *+G"7 IE"V +"VE +"J
V D&(o*$ +"I 7VI @II"E *+"I +"6 E+*"7 JG*"7 +"E6 +"J
G I8&t(4,$ * 4V"6 @GE"E I"V * EE*"E E+J"I +"6V +"*
4 H&*n& * J+"E *"*
IE47"
J
* *+*"4 I6"E
+"IV
+"7
I K&,B&t * *G*"6 @I*"7 *+ * EG7"4 E7V"* +"6V +"7
6 M&+&)&*es+/&, +"I JE+"I I+"I 77"4 +"6 VJ+"J GJJ"6 *"JE +"E
*+ N&8(4, +"4 64"G EJ"6 J4"V +"I IJ *7J"* +"I6 +"V
** N$(+&5 * *G 6"V *E"E * I7"V 4V"* +"I6 +"*
*7 L&t4, +"6 V4"6 7I"* J+ +"6 6G"J *+6"V *"*V +"J
*J Os%&n&)&5 * *G"J I"6 *J"J * 66"6 6J"V +"6E +"*
*E P&,)+&n$ +"6 V* *+"4 7E"6 * *VJ"7 *V4"I +"4E +"J
*V P4ne +"6 JE"* @7"4 7*"J * 67 6G"G *"+* +"7
*G R&+4,$ +"I V7"G 7+"7 4+"V +"6 II"J 6+"7 +"II +"E
*4 R&tn&8$,$ +"6 *G6"E @VV"4 6"* +"6 J74"* J*+"J +"IJ +"J
*I S$n5e/&+$ +"6 4E"V @J7"J *E"V +"6 *JI"6 *7J"E +"4J +"J
*6 So*&(4, +"I VG"4 +"6 J6"G +"6 IG"E G6"I +"GJ +"V
7+ !en84,*e!en84,*& +"4 7VE"4 7J"6 JV"7 +"I JJI"I JEV"G +"74 +"E
7* W&-&/&*$ +"I 7GE"E @7E 7E"I +"6 EEG EE+"7 +"IJ +"E
77 Y&0&t%&* +"6 V7"7 @*G"J EJ"J * *J7"J **G"* +"IE +"7
45 | P a g e
Anne@4,e "#T&)*e "57 1valuation of T.32 derived No,t+e&st %onsoon ,&$n.&** totals against oserved at diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,, RMSE MBE MAPE DAI
St5 De0
:%;
St5 De0
:e;
S*o(e
o.
,e8,ess
$on *$ne
NOF
* A-o*& +"4 JG"V I"* I667"7 +"I E+"G V7"G +"I4 *
7 A*$)&8+ +"6 J+"G **"* 4E+G+ * 47"J 4J"V +"II +"I
J
A4,&n&8&)&5A4,&n
8&)&5
+"I 74"7 E"V
*++GJ"
7
+"6 E7"V EE"V
+"G+
+"6
E Bee5 * *7"6 E"6
JVEI4"
G
* V6"* VV"7
+"6E
+"J
V D&(o*$ * *4"* I"V 4EG4"6 * 47"E 4V"I *"+J +"J
G I8&t(4,$ * 6"G @7"G EVJG"G * II"6 IG"J +"67 +"*
4 H&*n& * *+"6 V"I
77G4*"
V
* EJ EE"V
+"64
+"J
I K&,B&t * *6"4 E"E
E7*I4"
6
* *+4"V 66"G
+"6E
+"J
6 M&+&)&*es+/&, * J+"* +"*
7**7J"
I
* *+7 66"6
+"64
+"J
*+ N&8(4, +"6 7J"J I"I
76767"
4
+"6 J4"E EE
+"IV
+"6
** N$(+&5 * **"4 @+"7
*+*6G"
*
* 4E"I 4*"6
+"6I
+"7
*7 L&t4, +"6 J7"6 +"4
*4*VE"
V
+"6 IE"4 GV"7
+"G6
+"G
*J Os%&n&)&5 +"6 *4"6 4"V
E*V4J"
7
* V+"7 EJ
+"4*
+"V
*E P&,)+&n$ * 7V"7 7
*GE6V"
J
* IG"E IV"4
+"6E
+"V
*V P4ne +"4 V* @V"6 77G6"J +"I GV GI +"IJ +"I
*G R&+4,$ +"I J*"7 *"7
7G4IG"
I
+"6 VJ"I VE"4
+"6V
+"G
*4 R&tn&8$,$ * *E"V @E"J *67E"4 * *+7"E 6I"4 +"6G +"7
*I S$n5e/&+$ +"I *I"I J"I
7E6J+"
4
+"6 76"6 JJ"G
*"+6
+"4
*6 So*&(4, * *6"7 7"J
74VV+"
6
* G7"7 V4"G
+"IE
+"E
7+ !en84,*e!en84,*& +"J *V+"6 EG"J IG*7G" +"E G4"E *E6"G @+"77 7"V
46 | P a g e
G
7* W&-&/&*$ +"6 EV"V *4"E
76+4J"
V
+"6 6*"* *+V"7
+"6G
+"I
77 Y&0&t%&* +"I 7V"G J"I
*EGVE"
E
+"6 EG"J EG"E
+"GE
+"4
47 | P a g e
Anne@4,e ""T&)*e "67 1valuation of T.32 derived /$nte, ,&$n.&** totals against oserved at diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,, RMSE MBE MAPE DAI
St5
De0:%;
St5
De0:e;
S*o(e
o.
,e8,ess
$on *$ne
NOF
* A-o*& +"G *+"G @+"V
*J6IV"
E
+"I *J"I 6"G
+"JV
*"J
7 A*$)&8+ +"7 7"7 *"* G746"* +"7 +"V 7 *"VJ **"E
J
A4,&n&8&)&5A4,&n
8&)&5
+"J 7"4 +"6 6+VI"6 +"V 7"J 7"*
+"*V
E"J
E Bee5 +"G V"V J"7 7GJ4I +"V *"I V"E 7"7E **"*
V D&(o*$ + V"V *"4
7+V44"
*
+"* 7"I E"E
@+"7V
I"*
G I8&t(4,$ * *"V + 767E * G"7 V"E +"I* +"G
4 H&*n& +"J E"G 7"4
7G6I+"
I
+"E *"I J"6
+"VJ
*J"7
I K&,B&t +"V E 7
*6+++"
G
+"4 7"6 E
+"GV
V
6 M&+&)&*es+/&, +"4 7"V *"* *+J4* +"I 7"7 J"* +"4J J"G
*+ N&8(4, +"6 6"J *"7
7*6V*"
V
* 7V"J 74
*"+*
+"4
** N$(+&5 +"6 7"J +"G 46I+"J * 4"J G"I +"I7 +"I
*7 L&t4, +"V G"I *"*
*+IVG"
7
+"4 G"E 4
+"EI
*"V
*J Os%&n&)&5 +"I E"4 J
7EJ4+"
J
+"4 J"* V"4
*"E7
V"E
*E P&,)+&n$ +"V *7"7 J"7
*G+E4"
E
+"G 6"7 *J"4
+"VJ
7"J
*V P4ne +"I 7 +"V JV66"G +"6 7"E J"7 *"+7 7"7
*G R&+4,$ +"6 **"V E
7J4EV"
J
+"I 6"I *6"I
*"II
E"J
*4 R&tn&8$,$ * E"I @+"6 *EEI"G +"4 G"6 7"7 +"J+ 7"6
*I S$n5e/&+$ +"6 6"4 @7"7
**E4I"
4
* 7E"V 7J"*
+"6V
+"4
*6 So*&(4, +"6 7"I @+"V JJI7"I * 4"4 4"I +"6* +"I
7+ !en84,*e!en84,*& +"J 6"I @*"* 4*V*"* +"J *+"E 7"6 +"+G J"6
7* W&-&/&*$ + 7"6 +"I *7*+7" +"7 *"6 7"7 @+"7J E"6
48 | P a g e
J
77 Y&0&t%&* +"4 *E"V @7"J *V*6G +"I 7*"V *4"6 +"G4 *"*
49 | P a g e
Anne@4,e "2T&)*e "7 1valuation of T.32 derived s4%%e, ,&$n.&** totals against oserved at diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,, RMSE MBE MAPE DAI
St5
De0:%;
St5
De0:e;
S*o(e
o.
,e8,ess
$on *$ne
NOF
* A-o*& +"6 *E"7 @7"E
*E*VE"
4
+"6 7E"4 *E"G
+"VV
*"*
7 A*$)&8+ +"J JE"I 4"E
V477+"
4
+"V 74"E J*"7
+"+*
J"E
J
A4,&n&8&)&5A4,&n
8&)&5
+"E 7*"7 J
V+E7V"
6
+"G *G"V 7+"4
+"76
7"J
E Bee5 +"G *6"6 **"E
47J+E"
6
+"G 6"I 7+"I
*"EG
V"6
V D&(o*$ +"G JI"V 7"G
JV7VJ"
J
+"I E6"E J4"G
+"7I
7
G I8&t(4,$ +"6 G"G +"I
*4J67"
I
* *I"E *G"V
+"G6
+"I
4 H&*n& +"G *6"7 *+"4
444VE"
J
+"4 *7"I 7+"6
*"+6
J"G
I K&,B&t +"6 *V"V I"I
4J77V"
7
* J7"6 JG"4
*"++
*"V
6 M&+&)&*es+/&, +"J V7"7 @4
JI*7V"
I
+"J VG"I *I"7
@+"*E
7
*+ N&8(4, +"E J*"* @*"4
74V7+"
6
+"V JE"* *I"*
+"7G
*"I
** N$(+&5 * V"J *"G
7++*+"
E
* 7E"I 7J"V
+"IG
+"G
*7 L&t4, +"V 7*"6 J
EE6VJ"
E
+"4 7J"J *4"I
+"JV
*"V
*J Os%&n&)&5 +"I *I"E **"J
G6*+V"
J
+"I *I"J 7G"7
*"7+
7"J
*E P&,)+&n$ +"E 7*"E *"V
7674*"
*
+"G 7*"J *4
+"J4
*"I
*V P4ne +"6 4"I *"* 4VIE"G +"6 *G"J *G"6 *"+V +"6
*G R&+4,$ +"I *V"J 7"E
*67+G"
I
+"6 7G *6"7
+"VE
*"E
*4 R&tn&8$,$ +"4 VV @G"4 4E66"E +"I 4V"J 4*"* +"G7 *"V
*I S$n5e/&+$ +"G *I"6 @7"* 7**+E" +"4 7J"E *4"J +"4* *
50 | P a g e
I
*6 So*&(4, +"4 77"6 @V"I VI+G"E +"I J*"J 7J"E +"4* *"*
7+ !en84,*e!en84,*& +"J *76"7 @7G
4JJJE"
4
+"E *76"J GV"4
@+"+I
7"7
7* W&-&/&*$ +"E JJ"6 7"6
E4V6+"
7
+"G JV"G 74"6
+"*4
7"6
77 Y&0&t%&* +"V *I"G @E"6 G*VI"G +"4 7*"V *J"7 +"EE *"7
51 | P a g e
T&)*e 37 1valuation on the accuracy of T.32 in :uantifying length of wet and dry spells during 2outhwest0 monsoon season
:A; Len8t+ o. /et s(e**s(e**s :B; Len8t+ o. 5,6 s(e**s
Lo'&t$on RMSE MBE MAPE
Co,,e*&t$
on
Lo'&t$on RMSE MBE MAPE
Co,,e*&t$
on
A-o*& 7"4G *"EG J4"I7 +"76 A-o*& J"E+ @7"J* **"E7 +"II
A*$)&8+ 4"+* J"74 J7"6* +"7E A*$)&8+ 7"VI +"74 *I"EG +"4E
A4,&n8&)&5 E"44 J"I7 4G"GV +"7I A4,&n8&)&5 E"E7 @7"74 7+"*V +"VG
Bee5 7"IG *"JI E6"4G +"J6 Bee5 V"EG @J"IV *G"JG +"IE
D&(o*$ G"GG J"*V *J"6G +"II D&(o*$ E"JE +"+I JG"66 +"E7
I8&t(4,$ E"*E 7"76 I"V* +"66 I8&t(4,$ +"++ +"++ +"++ *"++
H&*n& *"EE +"VE *4"V* @+"+* H&*n& G"66 @J"J* *7"6I +"G6
K&,B&t I"I* E"J* *4"74 +"4I K&,B&t 7"** @+"44 *E"IV +"IV
M&+&)&*es+/
&,
4"+4 @E"E **"IE +"I4
M&+&)&*es+/
&,
J"EE *"E+ EE"G7 +"**
N&8(4, E"+6 *"67 V6"IE @+"** N&8(4, 7"IG @+"G7 *J"7* +"E6
N$(+&5 E"JE 7"V4 EG"6E +"76 N$(+&5 7"V6 @7"*E *J"+V +"6I
L&t4, J"VJ 7"*V GV"77 +"7G L&t4, G"*+ @7"VE 76"++ +"GG
Os%&n&)&5 *"J6 * *4"*G +"67 Os%&n&)&5 J"J7 @*"44 *+"7J +"46
P&,)+&n$ *"** +"44 *V +"IG P&,)+&n$ E"JV @*"+I *G"V4 +"G4
P4ne J"44 7"+I 76"44 +"I+ P4ne J"*I @+"VI *V"+I +"4E
R&+4,$ J"* +"G6 EI"IG +"+G R&+4,$ G"V6 @7"++ *I"JI +"V+
R&tn&8$,$ V"V *"V **"IG +"G6 R&tn&8$,$ E"+6 @+"J+ 7E"VG *"++
S$n5e/&+$ 7"J @+"JI *J"44 +"4+ S$n5e/&+$ 7"+E @+"44 G"V+ +"I6
So*&(4, *"4I *"*V 7G"7I +"47 So*&(4, 6"66 @J"++ 76"G+ +"E4
!en84,*e!en8
4,*&
*E"+E I"G4 VV"4J @+"EV
!en84,*e!en8
4,*&
V"67 @*"4V EE"E7 +"+V
W&-&/&*$ G"VJ @V J6"I6 @+"7J W&-&/&*$ E"IG J"G+ JG"6* +"4I
Y&0&t%&* 7"JE +"IV *6"+I +"VV Y&0&t%&* E"JV @+"G7 7E"+6 +"GE
52 | P a g e
(igure 7K 2cattered plots depicting oserved and T.32 estimated daily rainfall for selected locations
53 | P a g e
(igure JK 2cattered plots depicting oserved and T.32 estimated wee#ly rainfall for selected locations
54 | P a g e
(igure EK 2cattered plots depicting oserved and T.32 estimated monthly rainfall for selected locations
55 | P a g e
(igure VK 2cattered plots depicting oserved and T.32 estimated 2outhwest monsoon rainfall for selected locations
56 | P a g e
(igure GK 2cattered plots depicting oserved and T.32 estimated 'ortheast monsoon rainfall for selected locations
57 | P a g e
(igure 4K 2cattered plots depicting oserved and T.32 estimated winter rainfall for selected locations
58 | P a g e
Anne@4,e "3T&)*e "?7 1valuation of T.32 derived 5&$*6 %&@$%4% te%(e,&t4,e values against oserved at diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,,
RMS
E
MBE MAPE DAI
St5
De0
:%;
St5
De0
:e;
NOF
* A-o*& +"6 *"I +"E E"7 * E"6 E"E +"*
7 A*$)&8+ +"G 7"E *"E V"I +"4 7"J 7"E +"*
J A4,&n8&)&5 +"6 *"J + J * E"J E +
E Bee5 +"4 J"E @* I"7 +"I E"V J"G +"*
V D&(o*$ +"4 7"J +"6 G"* +"I 7"G 7"G +"*
G I8&t(4,$ +"6 7"J @*"J V"V +"6 J"I 7"I +"*
4 H&*n& +"I 7"6 @+"* G"6 +"6 E"V J"6 +"*
I K&,B&t +"6 7"7 @+"J V"7 +"6 E"* 7"G +"*
6
M&+&)&*es+/
&,
+"G J"E *"V **"V +"4 J"E J"* +"*
*+ N&8(4, * *"G +"J J"V * V"7 V +
** N$(+&5 +"6 *"4 @+"* J"I +"6 J"I J"V +"*
*7 L&t4, +"G J"V @*"* I"E +"I E"7 J"G +"*
*J Os%&n&)&5 +"4 J"7 @+"V 4"4 +"I E"* J"G +"*
*E P&,)+&n$ * *"E @+"J J * E"V E"* +
*V P4ne +"6 *"J @+"* 7"V * J"6 J"I +
*G R&+4,$ +"6 *"4 @+"7 E"J +"6 J"I J"G +"*
*4 R&tn&8$,$ +"G 7"7 +"I V +"I 7"E 7"J +"*
*I S$n5e/&+$ +"I J"4 *"* I"G +"6 V"J E"4 +"*
*6 So*&(4, +"6 *"G @+"E J"E * E J"6 +
7+
!en84,*e!en8
4,*&
+"J J"V *"6 I"E +"V 7"I 7"J +"*
7* W&-&/&*$ +"V J +"6 4"V +"4 J"E 7"V +"*
77 Y&0&t%&* *"+ *"V +"* J"J *"+ V"+ E"V +"+
59 | P a g e
Anne@4,e "4T&)*e "<7 1valuation of T.32 derived /ee-*6 %&@$%4% te%(e,&t4,e values against oserved at diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,, RMSE MBE MAPE DAI
St5
De0
:%;
St5
De0
:e;
NOF
* A-o*& * * +"E 7"V * E"4 E"7 +
7 A*$)&8+ +"4 7"* *"E V +"I 7 7"* +"*
J
A4,&n&8&)&5A4,&n
8&)&5
* +"I + *"4 * E"E E"J +
E Bee5 +"4 J @* 4"7 +"I E"7 J"V +"*
V D&(o*$ +"4 *"6 +"6 V"7 +"I 7"7 7"J +"*
G I8&t(4,$ * *"6 @*"7 E"J * I"* 4"V +"*
4 H&*n& +"I 7"E @+"* V"G +"6 E"7 J"I +"*
I K&,B&t * *"I @+"J E"E * 4"6 4"J +"*
6 M&+&)&*es+/&, * 7"4 *"* I * *+"4 **"7 +"*
*+ N&8(4, * +"4 +"J *"4 * E"6 E"I +
** N$(+&5 * *"* @+"* 7"V * I"* I +
*7 L&t4, * J"* @* 4"* * 6"I 6"J +"*
*J Os%&n&)&5 +"4 7"I @+"V G"V +"I J"6 J"V +"*
*E P&,)+&n$ * * @+"J 7 * E"J E +
*V P4ne * +"4 @+"* *"7 * J"4 J"G +
*G R&+4,$ +"6 *"7 @+"7 J"* * J"G J"V +
*4 R&tn&8$,$ * *"4 +"I J"G * G"7 G"J +"*
*I S$n5e/&+$ +"I J *"* 4 +"6 V E"V +"*
*6 So*&(4, * * @+"E 7"* * J"4 J"4 +
7+ !en84,*e!en84,*& +"E J"J *"6 4"V +"V 7"V 7"* +"*
7* W&-&/&*$ * 7"E +"I V"I * 6"4 6"I +"*
77 Y&0&t%&* *"+ +"6 +"* *"I *"+ E"I E"J +
60 | P a g e
Anne@4,e "5T&)*e 2#7 1valuation of T.32 derived %ont+*6 %&@$%4% te%(e,&t4,e values against oserved at diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,, RMSE MBE MAPE DAI
St5
De0
:%;
St5
De0 :e;
NOF
* A-o*& * +"6 +"E 7"* * E"J J"6 +
7 A*$)&8+ +"G 7 *"E E"I +"4 *"G *"I +"*
J
A4,&n&8&)&5A4,&n
8&)&5
* +"G + *"J * J"4 J"V +
E Bee5 +"I 7"G @* G"7 +"6 E J"J +"*
V D&(o*$ +"4 *"I * V"* +"I *"6 7"* +"*
G I8&t(4,$ * *"4 @*"7 E * 4"6 4"E +"*
4 H&*n& +"6 *"I @+"* E"7 +"6 E J"V +"*
I K&,B&t * *"G @+"J E"* * I"7 4"4 +"*
6 M&+&)&*es+/&, * 7"E *"7 4"7 * *+ *+"V +"*
*+ N&8(4, * +"V +"J *"J * E"G E"E +
** N$(+&5 * +"6 @+"* 7"* * 4"6 4"6 +
*7 L&t4, * 7"4 @* G"7 * 6"V 6 +"*
*J Os%&n&)&5 +"I 7"* @+"V E"6 +"6 J"G J"7 +"*
*E P&,)+&n$ * +"6 @+"J *"4 * E J"4 +
*V P4ne * +"E + +"I * J"J J"J +
*G R&+4,$ * * @+"7 7"4 * J"J J"7 +
*4 R&tn&8$,$ * *"E +"I J"* * G"J G"V +
*I S$n5e/&+$ +"6 7"J * V"E +"6 E"G E"7 +"*
*6 So*&(4, * +"4 @+"E *"G * J"V J"E +
7+ !en84,*e!en84,*& +"E J"* *"6 4 +"V 7"E *"6 +"*
7* W&-&/&*$ * 7"* +"I V * 6"I 6"I +"*
77 Y&0&t%&* * +"4 +"* *"E * E"E E"+ +
61 | P a g e
Anne@4,e "6T&)*e 2"7 1valuation of T.32 derived Ann4&* %&@$%4% te%(e,&t4,e values against oserved at diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,, RMSE MBE MAPE DAI
St5
De0
:%;
St5
De0
:e;
NOF
* A-o*& +"G +"G +"E *"E +"4 +"E +"V +
7 A*$)&8+ + *"V *"E E"J +"7 +"J +"4 +
J
A4,&n&8&)&5A4,&n
8&)&5
+"G +"V + *"* +"I +"E +"G +
E Bee5 @+"7 *"E @* J"G +"E * +"E +
V D&(o*$ +"V *"J +"6 J"V +"E +"E * +
G I8&t(4,$ +"E *"J @*"J E +"J +"E +"E +
4 H&*n& +"J +"I @+"* 7"7 +"V +"6 +"E +
I K&,B&t +"V +"V @+"J *"7 +"G +"V +"E +
6 M&+&)&*es+/&, +"7 *"G *"J V"7 +"E +"4 +"6 +"*
*+ N&8(4, +"6 +"E +"J +"6 +"6 +"V +"V +
** N$(+&5 +"E +"G @+"* *"E +"V +"E +"4 +
*7 L&t4, +"4 *"4 @*"7 E"* +"4 *"4 * +"*
*J Os%&n&)&5 +"V +"4 @+"V *"I +"G +"V +"J +
*E P&,)+&n$ +"J +"G @+"J *"J +"V +"V +"E +
*V P4ne +"6 +"* + +"J * +"J +"E +
*G R&+4,$ +"4 +"E @+"7 * +"I +"E +"V +
*4 R&tn&8$,$ @+"J *"* +"I 7"4 +"7 +"J +"G +
*I S$n5e/&+$ +"J *"7 *"* J"E +"E +"G +"J +
*6 So*&(4, +"I +"V @+"E *"7 +"4 +"E +"E +
7+ !en84,*e!en84,*& + 7"7 *"6 G"7 +"J * +"G +"*
7* W&-&/&*$ +"I +"6 +"4 7"4 +"G +"V +"6 +
77 Y&0&t%&* +"6 +"7 +"* +"E +"6 +"E +"E +
62 | P a g e
Anne@4,e "T&)*e 227 1valuation of T.32 derived So4t+/estso4t+/est %&@$%4% te%(e,&t4,e values against oserved at
diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,, RMSE MBE MAPE DAI
St5
De0
:%;
St5
De0 :e;
NOF
* A-o*& * +"G +"7 *"V * 7"I 7"G +
7 A*$)&8+ +"6 * +"6 7"I +"I +"6 *"* +
J A4,&n8&)&5 * +"J @+"* +"I * 7 7 +
E Bee5 +"4 7"G @+"7 G"* +"I 7"6 J"J +"*
V D&(o*$ +"I *"4 *"G V"V +"G *"* *"* +"*
G I8&t(4,$ +"6 *"J @*"* J"G +"I *"4 *"E +
4 H&*n& +"4 *"4 + E"J +"I 7"V 7"* +"*
I K&,B&t * *"I *"E V"E * V"7 V"7 +"*
6
M&+&)&*es+/
&,
* J"* *"G 6"6 * 6"E *+"J +"7
*+ N&8(4, * +"V +"7 *"7 * J"* 7"6 +
** N$(+&5 +"6 +"4 @+"7 *"4 * *"4 *"G +
*7 L&t4, * 7"E +"J G * I"I 6"* +"*
*J Os%&n&)&5 +"I 7"7 +"I V +"I *"I J"* +"*
*E P&,)+&n$ * +"6 @+"V 7 * 7"E 7"7 +
*V P4ne * +"J @+"7 +"6 * *"I *"4 +
*G R&+4,$ +"6 *"J @*"* J"G +"6 *"4 *"I +
*4 R&tn&8$,$ * *"V *"7 E"J * G"J G"G +"*
*I S$n5e/&+$ +"I 7"7 *"J V"J +"6 J"7 J"J +"*
*6 So*&(4, +"6 *"* @+"6 7"I +"6 *"I *"G +
7+
!en84,*e!en8
4,*&
+"G *"E *"7 E +"V +"4 * +
7* W&-&/&*$ * 7"6 7"E I"E * I"G 6"E +"*
77 Y&0&t%&* * +"V +"J *"J * 7"6 7"4 +
63 | P a g e
Anne@4,e "?T&)*e 237 1valuation of T.32 derived No,t+e&stno,t+e&st %&@$%4% te%(e,&t4,e values against oserved at
diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,, RMSE MBE MAPE DAI
St5
De0
:%;
St5
De0
:e;
NOF
* A-o*& +"I * +"4 7"E +"6 *"E *"7 +
7 A*$)&8+ +"J *"7 +"V J"* +"V +"4 *"* +
J
A4,&n&8&)&5A4,&n
8&)&5
+"6 +"G +"7 *"V +"6 *"* * +
E Bee5 @+"7 *"6 +"J E"6 +"J *"E * +"*
V D&(o*$ +"7 *"V +"J E +"V +"6 *"V +
G I8&t(4,$ +"G *"E @+"6 J"V +"4 *"J * +
4 H&*n& +"J *"G +"V E"7 +"V *"V * +"*
I K&,B&t * +"4 @+"7 *"4 * *+"G *+"V +
6 M&+&)&*es+/&, * *"V +"6 V"7 * *+"* *+"G +"*
*+ N&8(4, * +"G +"V *"G +"6 *"E *"7 +
** N$(+&5 +"G *"* @+"* 7"V +"I *"J *"7 +
*7 L&t4, * *"I @+"7 E"I * I"E I"J +"*
*J Os%&n&)&5 +"V *"* + J +"4 *"7 * +
*E P&,)+&n$ * +"J + +"4 * *"* * +
*V P4ne +"4 +"I +"7 *"* +"I * * +
*G R&+4,$ +"6 +"4 +"G 7 +"6 *"* +"6 +
*4 R&tn&8$,$ * *"* +"* 7 * 6"6 6"6 +
*I S$n5e/&+$ +"E 7"G 7 4"* +"V *"G *"J +"*
*6 So*&(4, +"6 +"J +"* +"6 * +"6 * +
7+ !en84,*e!en84,*& +"V *"E *"* J"G +"G +"6 +"6 +
7* W&-&/&*$ * *"* + 7"E * **"4 **"4 +
77 Y&0&t%&* * +"V +"J *"* * *"J *"7 +
64 | P a g e
Anne@4,e "<T&)*e 247 1valuation of T.32 derived /$nte, %&@$%4% te%(e,&t4,e values against oserved at diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,, RMSE MBE MAPE DAI
St5
De0
:%;
St5
De0 :e;
NOF
* A-o*& * *"* +"6 J +"6 7"* 7"* +
7 A*$)&8+ +"J J"7 7"4 6"J +"J +"6 *"4 +"*
J
A4,&n&8&)&5A4,&n
8&)&5
+"6 +"4 +"7 *"6 * *"4 *"I +
E Bee5 +"V 7"4 @7 4"J +"V 7"* * +"*
V D&(o*$ +"4 *"G * E"E +"4 *"* *"I +"*
G I8&t(4,$ * *"7 @+"4 7"V * **"V **"* +
4 H&*n& +"E 7"J @+"4 V"J +"G 7"7 *"I +"*
I K&,B&t * *"J @*"7 J"E * 4"I 4"V +
6 M&+&)&*es+/&, +"* *"4 *"* G"7 +"E +"6 *"7 +"*
*+ N&8(4, * +"G +"V *"G * 7"* 7"* +
** N$(+&5 * +"6 +"7 7"V * **"V **"G +
*7 L&t4, * J"* @7"* G"6 * I"I 4"6 +"*
*J Os%&n&)&5 +"V 7"J @*"I V"4 +"G *"I * +"*
*E P&,)+&n$ * +"V + *"J * *"6 *"4 +
*V P4ne * +"J + +"I * *"4 *"4 +
*G R&+4,$ * +"I +"G 7"J +"6 *"G *"G +
*4 R&tn&8$,$ +"G *"7 +"I 7"4 +"4 * *"* +
*I S$n5e/&+$ +"E 7 +"7 V"V +"G 7"7 *"E +"*
*6 So*&(4, * +"E @+"7 +"I * *"4 *"4 +
7+ !en84,*e!en84,*& @+"7 V"E 7"6 *J"7 +"J E"J * +"7
7* W&-&/&*$ * *"G +"V J"I * 4"7 4"J +"*
77 Y&0&t%&* +"I *"7 +"J *"I +"6 *"6 *"I +
65 | P a g e
Anne@4,e 2#T&)*e 257 1valuation of T.32 derived s4%%e, %&@$%4% te%(e,&t4,e values against oserved at diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,, RMSE MBE MAPE DAI
St5
De0
:%;
St5
De0
:e;
NOF
* A-o*& * +"4 @+"* *"J * 7"V 7"7 +
7 A*$)&8+ +"E 7"V *"6 G +"V *"J *"I +"*
J
A4,&n&8&)&5A4,&n
8&)&5
+"6 +"6 @+"E *"E +"6 *"6 7 +
E Bee5 +"4 J"* @7"G 4"* +"4 7"J 7"E +"*
V D&(o*$ +"E 7"J +"6 G"V +"V +"6 7"E +"*
G I8&t(4,$ * 7"I @7"V G"6 * **"6 ** +"*
4 H&*n& +"I *"4 @+"V J"G +"I 7"V *"6 +
I K&,B&t +"4 7"7 @*"6 V +"V *"J *"* +"*
6 M&+&)&*es+/&, * 7 +"4 E"E * *7 *7"E +"*
*+ N&8(4, * +"E +"* +"I * J 7"6 +
** N$(+&5 * *"7 @+"E *"4 * **"6 **"I +
*7 L&t4, * J"V @7"I 4"4 * *+"V 6"I +"*
*J Os%&n&)&5 +"I 7"V @7"* G +"4 *"4 7"J +"*
*E P&,)+&n$ +"6 *"J @+"G 7"E +"6 7"J 7"* +
*V P4ne * +"J @+"* +"G * *"J *"E +
*G R&+4,$ +"6 * @+"J 7"* +"6 *"6 *"G +
*4 R&tn&8$,$ +"J *"G +"6 J +"V +"I *"J +
*I S$n5e/&+$ +"4 7"J +"E E"G +"I J"7 J +"*
*6 So*&(4, * +"G @+"E *"7 * *"4 *"G +
7+ !en84,*e!en84,*& +"7 E J"7 *+"V +"J 7"J *"7 +"*
7* W&-&/&*$ * *"G @+"V J"I * *+"V *+"E +"*
77 Y&0&t%&* * +"4 @+"V *"E * 7"G 7"E +
66 | P a g e
(igure IK 2cattered plots depicting oserved and T.32 estimated daily maximum temperature for selected locations
67 | P a g e
(igure 6K 2cattered plots depicting oserved and T.32 estimated wee#ly maximum temperature for selected locations
68 | P a g e
(igure *+K 2cattered plots depicting oserved and T.32 estimated monthly maximum temperature for selected locations
69 | P a g e
Anne@4,e 2"T&)*e 267 1valuation of T.32 derived 5&$*6 %$n$%4% te%(e,&t4,e values against oserved at diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,, RMSE MBE MAPE DAI
St5
De0
:%;
St5
De0
:e;
NOF
* A-o*& * *"6 +"4 6"* * V"6 V"* +"*
7 A*$)&8+ +"I 7"* @+"E G"I +"6 J"J J"G +"*
J
A4,&n&8&)&5A4,&n
8&)&5
+"6 *"6 +"E I"6 * V E"I +"*
E Bee5 +"J V *"* 7E"E +"G E"* E"* +"J
V D&(o*$ +"I E 7"I 7*"V +"I E"I J"7 +"7
G I8&t(4,$ +"4 V"E *"G J7"7 +"4 4 E"* +"J
4 H&*n& +"4 J"V +"7 *V"I +"I E"G E"G +"7
I K&,B&t @+"J 4"4 *"6 JI"4 +"J V"* J"6 +"E
6 M&+&)&*es+/&, +"G J"V *"J 74"I +"I J"6 J"G +"J
*+ N&8(4, * *"J @+"* E"4 * V"4 V"J +"*
** N$(+&5 +"4 V"J *"G J+"7 +"I 4 E"G +"J
*7 L&t4, +"I J"E *"V *4"7 +"I E"4 J"6 +"7
*J Os%&n&)&5 +"4 J"I 7"* 7V"E +"I E J"4 +"7
*E P&,)+&n$ +"6 7"I 7 *G"6 +"6 V"G E"G +"7
*V P4ne +"6 7"7 +"* 6"* +"6 E"6 E"4 +"*
*G R&+4,$ +"6 J"E 7"G 7J"J +"6 V"E E"J +"7
*4 R&tn&8$,$ +"6 *"E +"J J"I +"6 7"4 7"I +"*
*I S$n5e/&+$ +"6 J"4 7 *6"I +"6 G V"* +"7
*6 So*&(4, +"6 *"6 +"6 I"E +"6 E"J J"4 +"*
7+ !en84,*e!en84,*& +"4 7"V @+"4 4"E +"I J"V 7"V +"*
7* W&-&/&*$ +"G V"7 J"I 74"G +"G E"E J"7 +"J
77 Y&0&t%&* @+"7 4"V @+"V JE"I +"J E"4 E"I +"E
70 | P a g e
Anne@4,e 22T&)*e 27 1valuation of T.32 derived /ee-*6 %$n$%4% te%(e,&t4,e values against oserved at diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,, RMSE MBE MAPE DAI
St5 De0
:%;
St5
De0
:e;
NOF
* A-o*& +"7 V7"4 @E"E EI"V +"* V"4 VJ"E 7"G
7 A*$)&8+ +"6 *"4 @+"E E"6 * J"4 J"6 +"*
J
A4,&n&8&)&5A4,&n
8&)&5
* *"7 +"E V"6 * E"6 E"4 +"*
E Bee5 +"J E"4 *"* 77"J +"G J"6 E +"7
V D&(o*$ +"I J"I 7"I *6"I +"I E"G J +"7
G I8&t(4,$ +"4 V"7 *"G 74"4 +"I G"I E +"J
4 H&*n& +"I J +"7 *J"G +"6 E"E E"V +"7
I K&,B&t +"7 *G"E @*"E J4"7 +"J *G"4 V"I +"4
6 M&+&)&*es+/&, +"6 7"G * *G"E * G"V G"6 +"7
*+ N&8(4, * +"4 @+"* J"* * V"V V"7 +
** N$(+&5 +"4 V *"V 7V"I +"I G"I E"E +"J
*7 L&t4, +"6 7"I *"E *J"7 * G"G G"V +"7
*J Os%&n&)&5 +"4 J"V 7"* *I"4 +"I J"I J"G +"7
*E P&,)+&n$ * 7"V 7 *E"I +"6 V"J E"E +"*
*V P4ne +"6 *"4 +"* G"6 * E"4 E"V +"*
*G R&+4,$ +"6 J"7 7"G 7*"7 +"6 V"* E"7 +"7
*4 R&tn&8$,$ * * +"J 7"6 * E"6 V +
*I S$n5e/&+$ +"6 J *"6 *V"6 +"6 V"4 V +"7
*6 So*&(4, * *"E * G"E * E J"E +"*
7+ !en84,*e!en84,*& +"4 J @+"I G"* +"I J"6 7"E +"*
7* W&-&/&*$ +"6 E"4 J"V 7J"E +"6 G"6 4"J +"J
77 Y&0&t%&* +"7 4"7 @+"G J7"4 +"G V"4 V"I +"E
71 | P a g e
Anne@4,e 23T&)*e 2?7 1valuation of T.32 derived %ont+*6 %$n$%4% te%(e,&t4,e values against oserved at diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,,
RMS
E
MBE MAPE DAI
St5
De0
:%;
St5 De0
:e;
NOF
* A-o*& * *"J +"4 G"G * V"V E"I +"*
7 A*$)&8+ +"6 *"E @+"E J"6 * J"G J"I +"*
J
A4,&n&8&)&5A4,&n
8&)&5
* +"6 +"E E"E * E"G E"E +
E Bee5 +"E E"J * 7+ +"G J"V J"6 +"7
V D&(o*$ +"I J"I 7"I *6"J +"I E"E 7"6 +"7
G I8&t(4,$ +"4 V *"G 7G"J +"I G"4 J"6 +"J
4 H&*n& +"I 7"G +"7 **"I +"6 E"7 E"E +"*
I K&,B&t +"G G"6 *"4 J7"4 +"I 4"7 4"* +"E
6 M&+&)&*es+/&, * 7"7 * *J"6 * G G"V +"7
*+ N&8(4, * +"G @+"* 7"V * V"J V +
** N$(+&5 +"4 E"6 *"V 7E"G +"I G"4 E"J +"J
*7 L&t4, +"6 7"G *"E **"V * G"V G"E +"7
*J Os%&n&)&5 +"I J"7 7"* *4"* +"I J"G J"V +"7
*E P&,)+&n$ * 7"E 7 *E +"6 V E"J +"*
*V P4ne * *"* +"* E"7 * E"V E"J +"*
*G R&+4,$ * J 7"G 7+"* +"6 E"6 E +"7
*4 R&tn&8$,$ * +"I +"7 7"7 * E"6 V +
*I S$n5e/&+$ * 7"V *"6 *J"* +"6 V"E E"I +"*
*6 So*&(4, * *"7 * V"4 * J"I J"J +"*
7+ !en84,*e!en84,*& +"6 *"I @+"4 E"I +"6 J"* 7"7 +"*
7* W&-&/&*$ +"6 E"V J"V 7*"6 +"6 G"4 4"7 +"J
77 Y&0&t%&* +"* 4 @+"G J*"4 +"V V"* V"7 +"J
72 | P a g e
Anne@4,e 24T&)*e 2<7 1valuation of T.32 derived &nn4&* %$n$%4% te%(e,&t4,e values against oserved at diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,,
RMS
E
MBE
MAP
E
DAI
St5
De0
:%;
St5
De0
:e;
NOF
* A-o*& +"V +"6 +"4 E"7 +"G +"4 +"V +
7 A*$)&8+ +"E +"G @+"E 7"J +"V +"J +"J +
J
A4,&n&8&)&5A4,&n
8&)&5
+"G +"G +"E 7"4 +"4 +"V +"V +
E Bee5 @+"V *"4 *"* G"V +"E *"* +"E +"*
V D&(o*$ +"G 7"6 7"I *V"* +"J +"I +"E +"7
G I8&t(4,$ +"4 J"J *"G *I"I +"E J"E +"E +"7
4 H&*n& @+"J *"7 +"7 V"4 +"7 * +"G +"*
I K&,B&t @+"I 7"G 7 *+"4 +"J *"7 +"4 +"*
6 M&+&)&*es+/&, * *"4 *"G *V"I +"6 J"* 7"V +"*
*+ N&8(4, +"6 +"7 @+"* +"I +"6 +"E +"V +
** N$(+&5 +"4 J"7 *"G *I"J +"V J"E +"V +"7
*7 L&t4, @+"* 7"7 *"G *+ +"E *"J +"G +"*
*J Os%&n&)&5 + 7"J 7"* *7"E +"E +"I +"E +"*
*E P&,)+&n$ +"J 7"7 7"* **"J +"J +"G +"G +"*
*V P4ne +"I +"E +"* *"G +"I +"G +"E +
*G R&+4,$ +"6 7"4 7"G *G +"E * +"E +"7
*4 R&tn&8$,$ +"G +"J +"7 *"7 +"4 +"7 +"J +
*I S$n5e/&+$ @+"* 7 *"6 6"6 +"7 +"J +"V +"*
*6 So*&(4, +"I * +"6 E"G +"V +"E +"V +
7+ !en84,*e!en84,*& @+"7 +"6 @+"4 7"4 +"E +"V +"J +
7* W&-&/&*$ +"6 E"7 E 7J +"E 7"J *"E +"7
77 Y&0&t%&* +"E *"J @+"V V"7 +"G *"E +"4 +"*
73 | P a g e
Anne@4,e 25T&)*e 3#7 1valuation of T.32 derived So4t+/estso4t+/est %$n$%4% te%(e,&t4,e values against oserved at
diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,,
RMS
E
MBE
MAP
E
DAI
St5
De0
:%;
St5
De0
:e;
NOF
* A-o*& +"6 +"I +"E 7"4 +"6 *"V *"J +
7 A*$)&8+ * +"4 @+"7 7"* * J"6 J"6 +
J
A4,&n&8&)&5A4,&n
8&)&5
+"I +"4 +"J 7"V +"6 *"* +"6 +
E Bee5 + E"G J"J 7+"6 +"E J *"7 +"7
V D&(o*$ +"I * +"4 J"4 +"I * *"* +
G I8&t(4,$ +"I *"J *"* V"V +"4 *"J +"6 +"*
4 H&*n& +"E 7 *"7 4"J +"V *"G *"J +"*
I K&,B&t +"I E"I @7"V *E"4 +"6 4"G 4"V +"7
6 M&+&)&*es+/&, * 7"* *"* 6 * G"4 4"7 +"7
*+ N&8(4, * +"V @+"E *"I * *"J *"J +
** N$(+&5 +"I *"G *"E 4 +"4 *"J +"6 +"*
*7 L&t4, * 7"* * G"V * G"V G"G +"*
*J Os%&n&)&5 +"E J"E J"* *G"4 +"E *"J *"7 +"7
*E P&,)+&n$ +"4 *"E * E"G +"4 *"7 * +"*
*V P4ne +"6 +"E @+"* *"J +"6 +"I +"6 +
*G R&+4,$ +"J *"6 *"J G"I +"V *"E +"6 +"*
*4 R&tn&8$,$ * +"V +"E *"6 * V"7 V"J +
*I S$n5e/&+$ +"4 *"4 *"E G"E +"4 *"E *"E +"*
*6 So*&(4, +"6 +"V +"J *"4 +"6 +"I +"I +
7+ !en84,*e!en84,*& +"4 +"6 @+"I J"* +"G +"G +"G +
7* W&-&/&*$ * 7"V 7 6"7 * G"4 4"J +"*
77 Y&0&t%&* +"E 4"7 @G"J 74"6 +"J *"6 J"6 +"J
74 | P a g e
Anne@4,e 26T&)*e 3"7 1valuation of T.32 derived No,t+e&stno,t+e&st %$n$%4% te%(e,&t4,e values against oserved at
diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,, RMSE MBE MAPE DAI
St5
De0
:%;
St5
De0
:e;
NOF
* A-o*& * *"I *"4 *+"7 +"6 7"V 7"J +"*
7 A*$)&8+ +"V *"G @+"7 G"E +"4 *"E *"6 +"*
J
A4,&n&8&)&5A4,&n
8&)&5
+"6 * +"7 E"6 * 7"G 7"7 +"*
E Bee5 +"7 E 7"E 7*"4 +"V J 7 +"7
V D&(o*$ +"4 7"* *"V 6"4 +"I 7"7 *"6 +"*
G I8&t(4,$ +"6 J"7 J"* 77"6 +"4 7"V 7 +"7
4 H&*n& +"4 7"G *"I *J"4 +"4 7"G 7"J +"*
I K&,B&t * G"V V"4 J*"* +"6 4"E 6"V +"E
6 M&+&)&*es+/&, * *"G +"G I"6 * V"I G"7 +"*
*+ N&8(4, * +"G @+"7 7"G * 7"G 7"J +
** N$(+&5 +"6 7"6 7"4 *6"6 +"4 7"V 7"J +"7
*7 L&t4, +"6 J"7 *"6 *4"4 +"6 V"J V"J +"7
*J Os%&n&)&5 +"G E"E E"* 7I +"V 7"* *"G +"J
*E P&,)+&n$ +"6 7"6 7"G *I"E +"I J"* 7"J +"7
*V P4ne +"4 *"4 +"7 G"I +"I 7"V 7"J +"*
*G R&+4,$ * 7"E 7"7 *V"6 +"I 7"I 7"* +"7
*4 R&tn&8$,$ * +"G +"7 *"E * G"I G"6 +
*I S$n5e/&+$ +"6 J"7 7"6 *4"6 +"4 J 7"E +"7
*6 So*&(4, * *"V *"E 4"I +"6 7 *"4 +"*
7+ !en84,*e!en84,*& +"I *"J @* E"I +"4 *"* *"7 +"*
7* W&-&/&*$ +"6 E"7 7"I *I"* +"6 V"6 G"4 +"7
77 Y&0&t%&* +"4 V"4 E"J 74"E +"4 E"* V +"J
75 | P a g e
Anne@4,e 2T&)*e 327 1valuation of T.32 derived /$nte, %$n$%4% te%(e,&t4,e values against oserved at diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,, RMSE MBE MAPE DAI
St5
De0
:%;
St5
De0 :e;
NOF
* A-o*& +"6 *"E *"* 6"E +"6 7"* *"4 +"*
7 A*$)&8+ +"E *"J @+"4 E"G +"G *"* *"* +"*
J
A4,&n&8&)&5A4,&n
8&)&5
+"6 *"* +"4 4"I +"6 *"I *"G +"*
E Bee5 @+"7 E"4 @7"I 7+ +"E J"J *"E +"J
V D&(o*$ +"E V"V V"J EJ"* +"J *"E *"E +"E
G I8&t(4,$ +"G 4"V *"* VE +"E I"G *"E +"G
4 H&*n& +"7 7"I @*"E *V +"V 7"J *"V +"7
I K&,B&t +"I 6"G 6 GV"6 +"V J"V V"G +"4
6 M&+&)&*es+/&, +"G 7"7 *"4 7J"J +"G *"G *"E +"J
*+ N&8(4, * +"G +"E E"* * 7 7 +
** N$(+&5 +"G 4"E +"G E6"* +"E I"G *"4 +"G
*7 L&t4, * *"I *"E *7"E +"6 E E"* +"7
*J Os%&n&)&5 +"J 7"7 +"G *J"I +"V 7"* *"J +"7
*E P&,)+&n$ +"6 7"I 7"4 77"6 +"G *"I *"G +"7
*V P4ne +"4 *"7 +"7 4"V +"I *"4 *"E +"*
*G R&+4,$ +"6 J"G J"V JG"7 +"V *"I *"E +"J
*4 R&tn&8$,$ +"G +"I +"J 7"G +"I +"I +"I +
*I S$n5e/&+$ +"V J"* 7"E 7*"4 +"G 7"* *"I +"7
*6 So*&(4, +"6 *"4 *"G *+"7 +"I *"G *"V +"*
7+ !en84,*e!en84,*& +"V *"7 +"I V"7 +"G * +"6 +"*
7* W&-&/&*$ +"6 G V"E E*"6 +"4 E"G G"* +"V
77 Y&0&t%&* @+"J 4"* E"4 E7"6 +"7 7"7 E"E +"E
76 | P a g e
Anne@4,e 2?T&)*e 337 1valuation of T.32 derived s4%%e, %$n$%4% te%(e,&t4,e values against oserved at diDerent locations
S*1
No
St&t$on Co,, RMSE MBE MAPE DAI
St5
De0
:%;
St5
De0
:e;
NOF
* A-o*& * *"* @+"* J"4 * J"I J"V +
7 A*$)&8+ +"I 7 @* E"G +"6 7"E J +"*
J
A4,&n&8&)&5A4,&n
8&)&5
* +"G +"7 7"J * 7"I 7"I +
E Bee5 +"7 J"4 + *E"V +"V 7"4 J"* +"7
V D&(o*$ +"6 E"V E"7 7J"7 +"G J"* 7 +"7
G I8&t(4,$ +"E G"I +"I 7G"I +"V 4"4 7"6 +"E
4 H&*n& +"I 7"4 @*"4 *+"J +"I 7"V J"E +"*
I K&,B&t @+"E G @7"V 7E +"7 J"G 7"6 +"J
6 M&+&)&*es+/&, +"6 7"V *"* *E"V * G"E 4"* +"7
*+ N&8(4, * +"V @+"* *"6 * J"4 J"E +
** N$(+&5 +"V G"4 * 74"7 +"V 4"4 J"* +"J
*7 L&t4, +"6 J *"E **"E +"6 G"E G"J +"7
*J Os%&n&)&5 +"I *"I @+"J G"4 +"6 7"7 7"I +"*
*E P&,)+&n$ * 7"E 7"7 **"J +"6 J"J 7"4 +"*
*V P4ne * +"4 +"* 7"G * J"* 7"6 +
*G R&+4,$ +"6 J"I J"G 7*"I +"4 J"7 7"G +"7
*4 R&tn&8$,$ +"I *"* + J"7 +"6 *"6 7"7 +
*I S$n5e/&+$ +"6 *"6 *"J 4"J +"6 J"E J"E +"*
*6 So*&(4, +"6 * +"I J"G +"6 7"7 7 +
7+ !en84,*e!en84,*& +"I *"I @*"7 V"* +"I 7"E *"V +"*
7* W&-&/&*$ +"6 E"4 J"I 7+"* +"6 G"E 4"G +"J
77 Y&0&t%&* +"I V"* @J"7 *G"J +"I G"7 V"J +"7
77 | P a g e
(igure **K 2cattered plots depicting oserved and T.32 estimated daily minimum temperature for selected locations
78 | P a g e
(igure *7K 2cattered plots depicting oserved and T.32 estimated wee#ly minimum temperature for selected locations
79 | P a g e
(igure *JK 2cattered plots depicting oserved and T.32 estimated monthly minimum temperature for selected locations"
80 | P a g e
Anne@4,e 2<T&)*e 347 3erformance of T.32 in estimating rainfall and temperature ased on 2#ill 2core Test
St&t$on
R&$n.&**
M&@$%4%
Te%(e,&t4,e
M$n$%4%
Te%(e,&t4,e
D&$*6
Wee-*
6
D&$*6
Wee-*
6
D&$*6
Wee-*
6
A-o*& 6+ 4G 6+ I6 IG IG
A*$)&8+ I6 GE 4I 4V 6J 6*
A4,&n8&)&5 II 4V 6J 6J II II
Bee5 46 G4 IV IJ G6 GV
D&(o*$ II G7 I+ 47 G6 G6
I8&t(4,$ I6 GI IG I+ GG GV
H&*n& IV 4* 6+ I6 I7 IJ
K&,B&t II G* 4V 4J 4* G6
M&+&)&*es+/
&,
IE V7 GI 4+ 4G I+
N&8(4, I4 G6 67 6+ 6J I4
N$(+&5 IG 4J 6J 6* G4 GV
L&t4, I* G4 II IE 44 I+
Os%&n&)&5 I* GG 6* II GG GV
P&,)+&n$ IV 4* 6* 6* 4I 4G
P4ne 6J I7 64 6G 64 6J
R&+4,$ I7 4E 67 I4 4* GG
R&tn&8$,$ 67 4+ I4 IE 67 6+
S$n5e/&+$ I6 47 IV I7 4J G6
So*&(4, IV 44 6J I6 I4 I4
!en84,*e!en8
4,*&
I6 G7 G6 GJ 46 47
W&-&/&*$ IG GE 46 I+ G+ V4
Y&0&t%&* 6* 4E 6+ 6+ IV IV
A0e,&8e ? 6< ?6 ?4 ?
81 | P a g e
Tale EK =enchmar#s considered for rainfall and temperatures in determining usaility of T.32
P&,&%ete,
St&t$st$'&* G
&n&*6t$'&* too*
'ons$5e,e5
C,$t$'&*
*$%$t
No1 o.
st&t$ons
&)o0e t+e
',$t$'&* *$%$t
A''4,&'6
o. TOPS $n
(e, 'ent
R&$n.&** e0ent .o, t+e ent$,e 6e&, !9 score U +"4 *4 44"J
R&$n.&** e0ent 54,$n8 %onsoon se&son !9 score U +"4 *V GI"7
L$8+t ,&$n.&** e0ents :J"# %%; .o, t+e
ent$,e 6e&,
3er cent
accuracy
4+C *E GJ"G
L$8+t ,&$n.&** e0ents :J"# %%; .o, t+e
%onsoon se&son
3er cent
accuracy
4+C *I I*"I
He&06 ,&$n.&** e0ents :I"# %%; .o,
t+e ent$,e 6e&,
3ercent
accuracy
4+C *E GJ"G
He&06 ,&$n.&** e0ents :I"# %%; .o,
t+e %onsoon se&son
3ercent
accuracy
4+C *V GI"7
R&$n.&** e0ents $n K 251# %% ,&n8e
3er cent
accuracy
4+C 77 *++"+
R&$n.&** e0ents $n 251"MA5#1# %%
,&n8e
3er cent
accuracy
4+C 6 E*"+
R&$n.&** e0ents $n 5"1#MA51# %%
,&n8e
3er cent
accuracy
4+C G 74"J
R&$n.&** e0ents $n 61#MA"##1# %%
,&n8e
3er cent
accuracy
4+C J *J"G
R&$n.&** e0ents $n "##1#MA"251# %%
,&n8e
3er cent
accuracy
4+C E *I"7
R&$n.&** e0ents $n "251#MA"5#1# %%
,&n8e
3er cent
accuracy
4+C * E"V
D&$*6 ,&$n.&** 94&nt$t6 ,@index U +"I 7+ 6+"6
Wee-*6 ,&$n.&** 94&nt$t6 ,@index U +"I 77 *++
Len8t+ o. 5,6 s(e**s 5&31 [ 7V"+ *V GI"7
Len8t+ o. /et s(e**s 5&31 [ 7V"+ *+ EV"V
D&$*6 %&@$%4% te%(e,&t4,e N 2 OC 3er cent error 7+C *+ EV"V
D&$*6 %$n$%4% te%(e,&t4,e N 2 OC 3er cent error 7+C E *I"7
82 | P a g e
Tale VK &ccuracy of T.32 in estimating maximum and minimum temperatures
St&t$on
M&@$%4% Te%(e,&t4,e M$n$%4% Te%(e,&t4,e
N "
OC
N 2
OC
N 3
OC
N 4
OC
I 4
OC
N "
OC
N 2
OC
N 3
OC
N 4
OC
I 4
OC
A-o*&
V+"4
G
I+"*
I
6E"V4
*++"+
+
+"++ E+"G6 47"GE II"6+
6V"G
G
E"JE
A*$)&8+
EV"I
E
G4"4
V
I*"4* 6+"77 6"4I GJ"G+ IG"*+ 6V"66
66"*
E
+"IG
A4,&n8&)&5
G4"G
+
67"G
6
*++"I
I
*++"+
+
+"++ EG"GJ 4E"II II"46
6V"G
4
E"JJ
Bee5
7I"G
I
VJ"J
E
4*"E7 IJ"I6
*G"*
*
77"EG E*"EV V4"I*
GI"6
4
J*"+J
D&(o*$
JJ"E
V
GJ"*
+
I7"4* 6J"J6 G"G* 77"VI E+"IE VE"+G
GV"G
V
JE"JV
I8&t(4,$
JI"6
+
GG"7
V
IV"*4 6V"V6 E"E* 7*"GE E*"7J VE"4V
GG"J
+
JJ"4+
H&*n&
J7"E
*
VI"E
6
4G"+G I4"V*
*7"E
6
J+"7* VE"J+ 4*"4I
IE"6
J
*V"+4
K&,B&t
JE"*
6
GV"E
7
IV"7+ 6V"I4 E"*J 7I"*+ E6"G+ GG"VE
44"V
I
77"E7
M&+&)&*es+/
&,
76"4
I
V4"G
V
4V"*E IV"7V
*E"4
V
JE"JI G*"V* I*"VJ
6*"*
6
I"I*
N&8(4,
V6"E
I
II"V
+
6I"E7
*++"+
+
+"++ GI"VI 6*"EV 6G"IE
6I"E
I
*"V7
N$(+&5
V6"I
+
I4"E
E
64"I7
*++"+
+
+"++ *I"J* E*"*E VI"6+
47"*
6
74"I*
L&t4,
J6"*
I
G6"*
V
IV"7+ 6J"+4 G"6J J7"6V V4"GV 47"6*
I*"7
+
*I"I+
Os%&n&)&5
VV"+
4
IG"V
G
6I"J6
*++"+
+
+"++ *6"7J EJ"++ GG"JG
I7"+
7
*4"6I
P&,)+&n$
GG"I
4
6+"+
E
6I"G4
*++"+
+
+"++ 76"+7 E6"67 4+"+V
IE"E
*
*V"V6
P4ne
4I"G
6
6V"I
6
*++"E
J
*++"+
+
+"++ IE"4+ 6J"*+ 6G"V*
6I"+
I
*"67
R&+4,$
E4"G
*
I*"*
+
6G"4I
*++"+
+
+"++ 7*"GG E+"V* VI"V7
4G"+
I
7J"67
R&tn&8$,$
V*"I
V
4I"7
7
6+"JE 6G"*6 J"I* 44"*6 6+"4+ 6V"6*
64"6
J
7"+4
S$n5e/&+$ E7"* 46"4 6E"E7 6I"4V *"7V 7+"I7 EE"74 GE"V4 I7"6 *4"+E
83 | P a g e
J 6 G
So*&(4,
G7"J
G
II"I
J
64"GI
*++"+
+
+"++ EG"4E 4V"4E 6*"E7
64"J
E
7"GG
!en84,*e!en8
4,*&
J*"*
J
VG"*
6
4V"*G I4"7V
*7"4
V
JG"4* GV"G+ I7"4J
6+"6
6
6"+*
W&-&/&*$
JI"+
6
GG"*
I
IE"J7 6E"44 V"7J 4"G7 7*"4V E+"J*
VV"7
I
EE"47
Y&0&t%&*
GV"G
I
I6"J
6
6V"4E 6I"+I *"67 EI"EE GJ"V7 44"67
I6"*
V
*+"IV
A0e,&8e
4?1"
6
515
5
?<13

<514
5
4155
313
?
5<1"
3
412
3
?41"
5
"51?
5
84 | P a g e
(igure *EK (re:uency distriution of estimated and oserved daily maximum temperature at selected locations
85 | P a g e
(igure *VK (re:uency distriution of estimated and oserved wee#ly maximum temperature at selected locations
86 | P a g e
(igure *GK (re:uency distriution of estimated and oserved daily minimum temperature at selected locations
87 | P a g e
(igure *4K (re:uency distriution of estimated and oserved wee#ly minimum temperature at selected locations
88 | P a g e
(igure *IK >ariaility (;>C) in southwest 2outhwest monsoon rainfall (after ,as, *6II)
89 | P a g e