India Financials 11-9-13 Prabhudas

India Financials
Digging deep into US$50bn of Power/Large corporate debt

Adarsh Parasrampuria
adarshparasrampuria@plindia.com
+91-22-66322236

Pritesh Bumb
priteshbumb@plindia.com
+91-22-66322232
Click to edit Master title style
Lilladher
Prabhudas
September 2013
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and/or its associates (the 'Firm') does and/or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that
the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report.
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Contents
September 11, 2013 2
Page No.
Factoring large corporate risk into valuations
Stress test Adjusting historic book values 24
Stress test Adjusting for future stress 25
Stress test Impact Analysis 26

Appendix: Group Level Power exposures
Lanco / GVK 27
JPA/ GMR 28
R-Power/ Adani Power 29
Ibulls Power / Aircel 30
Jindal Stainless / Essar Steel 31
Page No.
Digging deep into $50bn of Power/Large corporate debt 3
Investment/Sector View 4
Valuations and PT 5
We have covered US$50bn of large corporate/Power SPV 6
Quantifying Individual Exposures! 7
Involvement in the US$50bn assets and their ticket sizes 8

Asset Class Exposure of Banks/NBFCs
Power Assets ICICI/Axis/Large PSUs equally exposed 9
Gas Power NBFCs/Foreign banks have 45% of exposure 12
Coal Power - Similar level of exposure but different risks 13
Coal Power Slicing the pie into IPP/ High/Low risk assets 14
Large corporates (ex-Infra) PSU banks all the way! 15

Bank/NBFC level exposure
ICICI Concentrated exposures but manageable 16
Axis Exposure higher than ICICI but lower than PSUs 17
Retail/Regional banks Negligible exposure! 18
SBI Group Large book but safer names underwritten 19
Large PSUs PNB/Canara worse off than peers! 20
Smaller PSUs Lower exposure than larger peers 21
Infra NBFCs Not well placed; IDFC better of the lot 22
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Digging deep into $50bn of Power/Large corporate debt
A lot has been written about concentration of system credit to few large corporate/ Infra
cos. In this detailed report, we identify ~US$50bn of power SPVs and risky corporate
groups which is or could get stressed and dig a lot deeper into bank-wise exposure in
these potential stress assets. (All from Publicly available sources The caveat here is that
this is based on bank charges created and actual exposures may marginally differ).
ICICI/Axis Large exposures but better placed than PSUs: Exposure in these
~US$50bn assets is ~28% of Networth (NW) for ICICI and ~35% for Axis lower than PSU
banks (~40-60% of NW). Risky power exposure is marginally lower than PSUs at 20-
25% of NW but ex-Infra risky corporate exposure is significantly lower at <5-10% of
NW v/s 10-30% of NW for PSU banks. While Axis banks exposure is lot more
dispersed, ICICIs exposure is lot more concentrated in few groups like JPA/Essar/Adani
but indicates better underwriting with lower share of risky power exposure.
Retail and Regional banks Reaffirms their almost negligible exposure: Not only all
retail banks (HDFCB/Kotak/IIB) but even regional banks (Federal/SIB/KVB/CUB) have
almost negligible exposure in these assets (<5-10% of NW v/s 20-30% for ICICI/Axis),
with J&K bank being the only exception.
Large PSUs PNB/Canara worst, surprisingly BOI/Union better than SBI/BOB : PNB is
omnipresent in most risky assets that we have analysed followed by Canara bank and
these assets constitute 55-70% of their NW. BOI/Unions exposure is surprisingly
lower than SBI/BOB(considered relatively safer). For SBI, names in power book is less
risky v/s peers but is as risky as peers in the large corporate book. BOBs claim of small
ticket sizes seems right for power but ticket sizes is large in the ex-Infra book.
Medium and Smaller PSUs: Exposure for smaller PSUs are similar to larger peers at
~30-40% of NW in these assets. United/Uco/IOB are worse off where as Indian/Dena
seem better off on exposures relating to these assets.
Infra NBFCs/IDBI: IDBI, like PNB, is omnipresent in most risky names constituting ~90%
of their NW. For IDFC, these assets constitute ~35% of NW largely linked to gas assets.
PFC/RECs claims of low gas exposure seems right but their exposure to risky coal
assets is very high at 80-90% of their NW.
Source: Corporate Affairs Ministry, PL Research
Stressed assets as a % of Networth (FY13)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
REC
IDBI
PFC
United
PNB
Uco
Canara
IOB
SBI
Corp
Union
BOB
OBC
Andhra
BOI
J&K
Axis
Central
IDFC
ICICI
Indian
Federal
Yes
KVB
IIB
Kotak
HDFCB
SIB
ING
Power - Gas Coal- High Risk Coal- Low Risk Risky corporates
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Investment /Sector View
Factoring the impact in valuations Risk-reward still better for ICICI/Axis v/s PSUs: We factor impact from large corporate/risky power SPV
exposures to our book stress test. Given larger book impact for PSUs (v/s ICICI/Axis) and large adjustments required to improve
NPA/restructured book provisions (negligible in case of ICICI/Axis), adjusted valuations indicate a better risk-reward for ICICI/Axis v/s PSU
banks though recent upmove could restrict near term upside.
Key Stock Calls:
Beta private banks Meaningful exposure to risky large corporate names but risk in Axis exposure not as high as perceived:
ICICI/Axiss exposure to these assets is quite meaningful at ~25-35% of NW but adjusted book indicate that valuations is factoring some
pain from these exposures. Share of high risk power book is lower for ICICI/Axis v/s PSU banks and between them risk profile of ICICIs
seems better. Yes bank will face liability challenges but our analysis indicates negligible exposure to these risky large corporates.
PSU banks - Most exposed to large corporate risk as well Valuations may be undemanding but there are many headwinds: Large
PSU banks exposure to these risky assets is highest, especially for banks like PNB/Canara. Of the cheaper ones, BOI/Unions exposure
seems lower than peers. SBI/BOB are better only on coal power exposure as expected but large corporate book is as risky as peers
Valuations are undemanding but as we indicated in our earlier note that it will take longer for these banks to repair their B/S than the last
cycle (00-04) + capital/pensions worries also remain apart from the asset quality risks we discuss here.
Retail banks Risk-reward getting reasonable in some names now (HDFCB/ KMB/ IIB/ ING): As expected these banks have negligible
exposure to risky large corporates Of the defensive names, we see risk-reward most attractive for HDFCB and ING (upgrade to BUY).
Regional banks Scope for some outperformance here: Most regional banks have limited exposure to these assets despite having a
meaningful Infra book, providing some comfort. We believe risk-reward has got very attractive for Federal bank (attractive vals +
beneficiary of NRE deposits + low exposure in these names). J&K banks recent outperformance (liability franchise) + higher exposure in
these names pushes it down in our preference order.
Retail NBFCs- Mixed Views: With tighter liquidity, we prefer NBFCs with some pricing power where MMFS is best placed but valuations
remain dear. SHTFs recent correction discounts asset quality/ liquidity risks adequately and we would use any fall to ACCUMULATE.
Tightening reversal will remain a key catalyst for HFCs- For LICHF, valuations do discount margin impact from the recent tightening which
will also impact HDFC if the current situation persists.
Infra NBFCs REC/PFC (Not rated) have high exposure to risky power names which needs to be evaluated accordingly by investors trying
to take a value call on these names. IDFCs exposure to gas remains high but ~Rs10bn of provision buffer + better underwriting on coal
provides us greater comfort here to take a value call.
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Valuations and PT
Top Buys : HDFC Bank (high opex + credit costs flexibility Most resilient in the slowdown); ICICI/ Axis (though recent
upmove restricts upside); ING Vysya (Risk-reward getting attractive now; Upgrade to BUY)
Top Avoids: PSU banks (higher leverage to the credit cycle + capital/pension issues) ; HDFC (Risk-reward unattractive
especially considering risk to margins)
Change in Recos: Upgrade ING to BUY from ACCUMULATE; Prefer ING over J&K Bank now among regional banks
FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15
Axi s Bank 998 8,656 BUY 1300 30% 1.27 1.12 8.1 6.8 16.7% 17.4%
HDFC Bank 638 28,189 BUY 725 14% 3.56 2.98 18.8 15.4 20.3% 20.8%
ICICI Bank 970 20,688 BUY 1150 19% 1.56 1.41 10.0 8.9 13.3% 13.8%
HDFC 809 23,253 Accumul ate 800 -1% 3.43 2.93 14.8 12.2 21.3% 22.5%
IDFC 89 2,497 BUY 115 29% 0.90 0.82 6.5 5.8 14.4% 14.4%
Kotak Bank 708 10,058 Reduce 700 -1% 2.83 2.52 21.2 17.7 14.7% 15.0%
IndusInd 410 3,970 BUY 460 12% 2.48 2.13 15.6 13.0 17.2% 17.9%
Yes 307 2,043 BUY 360 17% 1.58 1.32 7.6 6.5 22.6% 22.2%
PNB 464 3,030 Accumul ate 500 8% 0.54 0.48 3.5 3.1 14.1% 14.6%
BOI 152 1,669 Accumul ate 170 12% 0.43 0.38 3.1 2.5 12.4% 13.6%
BOB 482 3,750 Accumul ate 550 14% 0.64 0.58 4.6 4.2 13.5% 13.3%
Uni on 109 1,205 Accumul ate 125 14% 0.42 0.38 3.1 2.7 12.7% 13.6%
SBI 1,634 20,654 Accumul ate 1700 4% 0.86 0.76 6.4 5.1 12.4% 13.8%
LIC housi ng 185 1,730 BUY 210 13% 1.27 1.11 8.2 7.2 16.5% 16.5%
Shri ram 568 2,381 Accumul ate 625 10% 1.53 1.31 9.1 7.7 18.1% 18.2%
MMFS 268 2,821 BUY 300 12% 2.92 2.50 15.5 13.0 20.3% 20.8%
Federal 286 905 BUY 420 47% 0.71 0.64 6.1 5.1 12.1% 13.0%
ING Vysya 504 1,745 BUY 600 19% 1.33 1.20 12.2 9.7 13.3% 13.0%
J&K Bank 1,208 1,082 BUY 1400 16% 1.04 0.89 5.6 5.0 20.0% 19.4%
SIB 20 503 BUY 25 23% 0.89 0.77 5.7 4.7 15.6% 16.8%
Price Mcap ($ mn) Rating PT Upside
ROE P/B P/E
Lilladher
Prabhudas
We have covered US$50bn of large corporate/Power SPV
We also covered US$15bn of loans to risky corporates
We have covered ~63000 MW of power plants adding up to US$35bn
Group Asset Class Plant MW Fuel Debt
Calculated
Lanco Power Udupi Power 1200 Coal 60,009
Lanco Power Anapara 1200 Coal 38,768
Lanco Power Kondapal l i 1214 Gas 37,887
Lanco Power Amarkantak 1320 Coal 75,441
Lanco Power Vi darbha 1320 Coal 55,490
GVK Power Al kananda -Tehri 330 Hydro 33,530
GVK Power Goi ndwal Sahi b- Punjab 540 Coal 24,405
GVK Power Gautami Power- AP 469 Gas 13,452
Tata Power Mundra UMPP 4000 Coal 139,883
Abhi ji t Power Chandwa 1080 Coal 34,370
Abhi ji t Power Banka - Bi har 1320 Coal 59,130
KSK Power Mahanadi - Chatti sgarh 3600 Coal 121,411
Rpower Power Buti bori 600 Coal 26,730
Rpower Power Sasan UMPP 3960 Coal 177,920
Rpower Power Samal kot -AP 2400 Gas 30,000
GMR Infra Power Rajamundry I/II 768 Gas 19,990
CESC Power Chandrapur - Maha 660 Coal 26,325
Indi abul l s Power Nashi k - Phase I 1350 Coal 51,220
Indi abul l s Power Amravati - Phase I 1350 Coal 52,060
Vi zag Bottl i ng Co Power Konaseema 445 Gas 16,273
Adani Power Mundra UMPP 4620 Coal 96,217
Adani Power Ti roda 3300 Coal 135,250
JSW Power Ratnagi ri 1200 Coal 33,750
JPA Power Ni gre 1320 Coal 56,700
JPA Power Bi na 1320 Coal 42,410
JPA Power Karchana 1980 Coal 29,000
JPA Power Bara 1980 Coal 80,850
NTPC & GAIL Power Dabhol 1967 Gas 66,689
Torrent Power Power Sugen - Torrent 1,148 Gas 44,223
Torrent Power Power Dahej Power 1,200 Gas 39,430
SKS Ispat power Power Chatti sgarh 1,200 Coal 35,000
Bajaj Hi ndustan Power Lal i tpur Power 1,980 Coal 88,360
Coal & Oi l Group Power Coastal Energen 1,200 Coal 31,827
Monnet Ispat Power Mal i brahmani TPP 525 Coal 38,190
Ind Bharat Power Ori ssa 700 Coal 25,480
Avantha Power Power Seoni ,Madhya Pradesh 600 Coal 21,800
Moser Baer Power Anuppur, MP 1,320 Coal 46,800
RKM power gen Power Uchpi nda TPP 1,440 Coal 38,740
Vi sa Power Power Rai garh TPP(Vi sa) 600 Coal 19,640
DB Power Power Baradarha TPP 1,200 Coal 14,500
East Coast Energy Power Bhavanpadu TPP 1,320 Coal 49,270
NCC / Gayathri Power NCC Power Projects Ltd 1,320 Coal 52,850
Others Power Kashi pur CGT 225 Gas 8,334
Others Power Beta Infratech 225 Gas 8,640
Risky Corporates (Rs m)
Essar Steel 334,620
Ai rcel 175,850
Ji ndal stai nl ess 87,383
Suzl on 82,840
El ectrosteel Steel 64,677
Soma group 56,610
Bombay Rayons 36,156
Wi nsome 38,450
Gi tanjal i 38,188
Gammon 26,770
Total Power 2,198,242
Power - Gas 284,918
Power - IPPs 495,704
Power - Coal - High Risk 1,068,621
Power - coal - Low Risk 844,704
Power -Coal 1,913,324
Risky corporates 941,543
Total Assets Analysed (Rs mn) 3,139,786
Total Assets Analysed ($ mn) 48,304
% of Loans
Total Power 3.6%
Power - Gas 0.5%
Power - Coal - Hi gh Ri sk 1.7%
Power - coal - Low Ri sk 1.4%
Power - Coal 3.1%
Ri sky corporates 1.5%
Power+ Risky Corporates 5.1%
In aggregate ,we cover US$50bn of assets, which is ~5% of system loans
which is or could face some stress though admittedly loss, given
restructuring/NPA declaration in many of these assets will be low
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Quantifying Individual Exposures!
Potentially problem assets (as a % of Networth)
Potentially problem assets (as a % of Loans)
0.0% 3.5% 7.0% 10.5% 14.0%
REC
PFC
IDFC
IDBI
PNB
Axis
LT In Fin
Canara
ICICI
Uco
SBI
J&K
BOB
IOB
OBC
Union
ALBK
BOI
Indian
Federal
Yes
Kotak
IIB
HDFCB
ING
KVB
SIB
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
REC
IDBI
PFC
United
PNB
Uco
Canara
IOB
SBI
Corp
Union
BOB
OBC
Andhra
BOI
J&K
Axis
Central
IDFC
ICICI
Indian
Federal
Yes
KVB
IIB
Kotak
HDFCB
SIB
ING
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Involvement in the US$50bn assets and their ticket sizes
Ticket Size of exposure in these assets (Rs m)
Involvement % (presence of respective Banks/NBFCs in no. of
projects/assets that we have analysed)
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0%
PNB
SBI
BOB
IDBI
BOI
Union
Canara
Axis
OBC
Uco
Corp
ALBK
IOB
Central
PFC
ICICI
Indian
REC
J&K
IDFC
Federal
Yes
HDFCB
KVB
IIB
SIB
Kotak
ING
LVB
0 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000
SBI
PFC
REC
ICICI
IDBI
PNB
Canara
Axis
IDFC
BOB
HDFCB
IOB
Kotak
BOI
Uco
IIB
Central
Union
Corp
ALBK
OBC
J&K
Yes
Indian
Federal
ING
LVB
SIB
KVB
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Power Assets ICICI/Axis/Large PSUs equally exposed
We have covered ~60000 MW of power plants, which we believe,
could face some delays/stress, including ~10000MW of gas-based
power plants and ~50000MW of coal power (~15000MW of IPPs).
This cumulates to ~Rs2.2trn, including Rs300bn of gas exposure and
Rs500bn of IPP exposure.
Axis/ICICI: These power assets constitute ~4% of their loans and
is almost 21-25% of their NW - % loan exposure is higher than
PSU banks but better capital levels limits the NW impact. ICICIs
share of gas and risky coal power exposure is lower than Axis.
Retail and Regional private banks: All regional/retail banks have
just 0.5% of loans in these power assets with the exception of
J&K bank (~2% of loans) NW impact is <5% in most cases
except J&K (15% impact).
Large PSUs (Top 6): Exposure lower v/s ICICI/Axis at 3% of loans
but lower capital leads to higher NW impact (30%). Among
them, PNBs exposure is highest at ~37% of NW and all other
PSU banks have similar exposure of ~22-30% of NW.
Mid/small PSUs: Their exposure is lower at 20-25% of NW.
Worst placed are United/Uco/Andhra in that order and
Indian/Dena/syndicate seem better placed (<20% of NW).
NBFCs: Infra financing cos, including IDBI, have the highest
exposure, with 10-11% of their loans in these assets which is
~65-90% of their NW. These assets equate to ~65-90% of
PFC/REC/IDBIs NW and ~34% of IDFCs NW.
Potential problem power assets (% of loans)
Potential problem power assets (% of Networth)
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
ICICI/Axis Retail Pvt. Regional Pvt. Large PSUs Mid PSUs NBFCs
Power - Gas Coal - High Risk Coal - Low Risk
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
ICICI/Axis Retail Pvt. Regional Pvt. Large PSUs Mid PSUs NBFCs
Power - Gas Coal - High Risk Coal - Low Risk
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Power Assets Problem asset % of Loans/Networth
Power SPVs exposure as a % of Networth Infra SPVs and PNB/Canara
most exposed
Power SPVs exposure as a % of loans Infra NBFCs most exposed
0.0% 3.5% 7.0% 10.5% 14.0%
REC
PFC
IDFC
IDBI
PNB
Axis
LT In Fin
Canara
ICICI
Uco
SBI
J&K
BOB
IOB
OBC
Union
ALBK
BOI
Indian
Federal
Yes
Kotak
IIB
HDFCB
ING
KVB
SIB
Power - Gas Coal- High Risk Coal- Low Risk
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
REC
IDBI
PFC
United
PNB
Uco
Canara
IOB
SBI
Corp
Union
BOB
OBC
Andhra
BOI
J&K
Axis
Central
IDFC
ICICI
Indian
Federal
Yes
KVB
IIB
Kotak
HDFCB
SIB
ING
Power - Gas Coal- High Risk Coal- Low Risk
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Power Assets % Involvement and Ticket Sizes
Ticket size in power exposures of respective banks/NBFCs (Rs bn)
PFC/REC ticket size relatively large
Presence of respective banks/NBFCs in no. of power projects/assets that
we analysed (%) - PNB omnipresent; ICICI present only in select names
0.0% 15.0% 30.0% 45.0% 60.0% 75.0%
PNB
SBI
BOI
IDBI
BOB
Union
Uco
Axis
Canara
OBC
PFC
REC
Corp
Indian
IOB
Central
ALBK
ICICI
IDFC
J&K
Federal
Yes
HDFCB
KVB
IIB
SIB
Kotak
ING
LVB
0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 12,500
PFC
SBI
ICICI
REC
IDBI
IDFC
HDFCB
Axis
PNB
Kotak
BOI
Canara
BOB
IIB
Uco
IOB
Union
Central
ALBK
Corp
Yes
OBC
Indian
J&K
Federal
SIB
KVB
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Gas Power NBFCs/Foreign banks have 45% of exposure
Gas power Very Risky: Gas exposure, we believe, is a very risky asset class, given that unlike coal, imported fuel is not a viable option
in most cases and hence, some of the plants will have to wait before domestic gas production improves.
Our study covers ~10000MW of gas plants with Rs300bn of exposure
IDBI/ IDFC most exposed: NBFCs, including Infra financing and IDBI, together constitute ~35% of the total debt and another 10% of debt
is held by foreign development banks, leading to just ~50% of the gas exposure being held by Indian banks -- IDBI and IDFC seems most
exposed with gas exposure in these assets being ~20% of their NW. Exposure of PFC/REC is fairly limited.
ICICI/Axis - Very limited gas exposure: Management has been maintaining for both banks of limited gas exposure and our data also
indicates that gas power exposure is just 2-3% of NW in case of ICICI/Axis (0.5% of loans).
PSU banks Very limited exposure: Gas exposure of PSU banks in most cases is <5% of NW. Among larger ones, Canara/BOB has
marginally higher gas exposure v/s peers, whereas Union/BOI are marginally better placed.
Gas exposure as a % of Networth Highest for IDBI/ IDFC
Gas exposure of Rs300bn NBFCs + Foreign banks have ~45% exposure
ICICI/Axis
8%
Retail Pvt.
4%
Regional
1%
Large PSUs
31%
Mid PSUs
11%
NBFCs
34%
Foreign
11%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
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Lilladher
Prabhudas
Coal Power - Similar level of exposure but different risks
Our analysis covers ~53000MW of Coal plants with Rs1.9trn of exposure to Coal Assets, including 13500MW of IPPs with Rs450bn of
exposure. Infra NBFCs, including IDBI and Foreign banks, contribute again a significant ~40% of the total Rs1.9trn exposure, PSU banks
constitute ~45% and private banks the rest of the 10% exposure of these coal assets (largely ICICI/Axis).
For PFC/REC these coal assets represent 80-90% of their NW with significant exposure to coal power assets commissioned by Infra
conglomerates/IPPs . IDFCs coal asset exposure is fairly limited to ~15% of their NW with limited IPP exposure (low relative to peers).
Large PSU banks - Similar exposure level - SBIs coal names less riskier; BOB/Canaras exposure low: These coal assets constitute ~25%
of NW of PSUs. SBIs coal power exposure at 26% of NW is similar to other PSUs but their exposure is largely to Adani/Tata/Torrent (~60%
of coal power) and exposure to IPPs/Infra conglomerates is low. BOB/Canaras coal power exposure is lower at <20% of NW as BOBs
coal power ticket size does not exceed Rs4bn in most cases and Canara seems to be have been more choosy in underwriting.
ICICI/Axis Similar in size to PSUs but different in concentration: Axis/ICICIs exposure in these assets is similar to some PSUs at ~20%
of NW but exposure is very concentrated for ICICI in a few names (JPA/ Adani) whereas Axis is more exposed to IPPs/Infra conglomerates.
Regional/Retail banks Exposure is <5% of NW for all retail and regional private banks, except for J&K bank.
Coal assets IPP risk higher for PSU banks
Coal exposure of Rs1.9trn NBFCs + Foreign banks constitute >40% of
the exposure we analysed
ICICI/Axis
9%
Regional
1%
Large PSUs
29%
Mid PSUs
20%
NBFCs
33%
Foreign
8%
(Share of exposure) Coal Coal IPP High Risk Low Risk
ICICI/Axi s 9.4% 9.7% 8.9% 9.9%
Retai l /Regi onal 1.1% 1.1% 1.4% 0.8%
PSUs 48.1% 57.4% 54.7% 40.3%
Large PSUs 28.5% 33.4% 29.5% 27.2%
Mi d PSUs 19.6% 24.0% 25.2% 13.1%
NBFCs 33.4% 31.4% 34.8% 31.8%
Forei gn 8.0% 0.3% 0.2% 17.1%
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Coal Power Slicing the pie into IPP/ High/Low risk assets
Coal exposure as a % of Networth (IPPs included)
IPP exposure as a % of Networth (included in high risk)
Splitting 53000Mw of coal SPVs Includes ~13500MW of IPPs; Including
IPPs, high risk power is 55% of the coal book
IPP (Higher risk)
26%
Other higher risk
29%
Low Risk
45%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
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C
B
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0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
REC
PFC
United
Uco
IDBI
PNB
Andhra
BOI
Corp
Union
SBI
IOB
Axis
Central
OBC
ICICI
Canara
Indian
IDFC
BOB
J&K
Yes
Federal
IIB
SIB
KVB
HDFCB
Kotak
ING
Coal- High Risk Coal- Low Risk
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Large corporates (ex-Infra) PSU banks all the way!
Our analysis covers ~10 risky corporates, cumulating to Rs1trn of exposure, with Rs450 being already recognized restructured accounts
and Rs520bn in 2-3 large accounts still remaining standard.
PSU banks all the way: In large risky corporates (ex Infra), share of PSU banks is high at ~75% (v/s 45% share in problem power assets),
with top six PSU banks constituting ~50% of the exposure to these 10 risky corporates.
PNB/Canara worse off; BOI/Union better; SBI/BOB as risky as peers unlike their lower risk power exposure: PNB and Canara seem
omnipresent in most of the ex-Infra large corporate names. Union and BOI is surprisingly better off than peers as their ticket sizes is
smaller at Rs1-2bn in most of these cases v/s Rs7-10bn for peers. SBI/BOBs exposure at ~20% of NW is almost similar to peers with large
ticket sizes and presence across most names unlike their power books is as risky as peers.
ICICI/Axiss exposure to these corporates is restricted to 1-2 bulky exposures (Essar steel) and is lower than PSUs at <10% of NW.
Retail/Regional banks have limited exposure to these risky corporates except for J&K and LVB (13-20% of NW).
Gas exposure as a % of Networth Highest for IDBI/ IDFC
Gas exposure of Rs300bn NBFCs + Foreign banks have ~45% exposure
ICICI/Axis
8%
Retail Pvt.
1% Regional
2%
Large PSUs
52%
Mid PSUs
23%
NBFCs
11%
Foreign
3%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
P
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Lilladher
Prabhudas
ICICI Concentrated exposures but manageable
JPA + Essar 2 single large group exposures (%
of networth)
Stress assets (% of Networth)
% of involvement and average Ticket Size
Group share in ICICIs Rs150bn of stress assets
ICICIs total debt to these assets is Rs150bn, constituting ~28% of their banking NW.
Gas risk low: Gas exposure is largely Dabhol-linked ex of which gas exposure is fairly
limited inline with management guidance of limited gas exposure.
Coal power risk restricted to largely JPA; IPP exposure also limited: Contrary to
expectations, ICICIs coal exposure to potentially stressed assets of Lanco/GVK/Abhijit
etc is low. JPA and Adani form ~65% of ICICIs coal exposure we analysed. Exposure to
IPPs is also limited (Rs25bn- <5% of NW).
Risky corporates: Exposure to analysed companies (ex Infra) is just ~7% of NW, (lower
than PSUs -20-25% of NW) with >50% of this being lending to Essar Steel
Of ~55 risky assets we analysed, ICICI was present in just ~30% of assets but average
ticket size of Rs10bn is ~2x of Axis/PSU banks (SBI ticket size of Rs16bn) but a % of NW
average ticket size is similar to peers
GVK /
Lanco /
Abhijit /
Rpower
0.3%
Adani
10.3%
JPA
31.9%
IPPs
17.0%
Other
Power
15.7%
Essar Steel
18.1%
Other Risky
corporates
6.7%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
L
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0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
P
N
B
C
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I
No. of
risky
asset
present
in
Involvement
rate (%)
Avg.
ticket
size
(Rs m)
Ticket Size
% of
Networth
PNB 41 75.9% 5,620 1.80%
SBI 33 61.1% 15,146 1.53%
BOB 29 53.7% 4,538 1.47%
BOI 27 50.0% 3,233 1.42%
Union 26 48.1% 2,683 1.70%
Canara 24 44.4% 5,340 2.34%
Axis 23 42.6% 5,174 1.56%
ICICI 16 29.6% 9,517 1.75%
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Axis Exposure higher than ICICI but lower than PSUs
Present in all groups except JPA (power assets)
Concentration lower than ICICI
Problem assets (% of NW)
Group share in Axiss Rs120bn of stress assets
Axis banks total debt to these assets is Rs120bn constituting ~35% of their NW
Gas risk low: Axis has a small ticket involvement in few gas projects and exposure as a
% of NW at 2.7% is low in line with management guidance on gas assets.
Coal power risk Higher exposure to Infra conglomerates; Low IPP risk: Axis is
present in ~40% of the coal assets we analysed (higher than ICICI at ~30%) but Axis
coal power risk is spread across all Infra groups ex-JPA; however, IPP exposure is low. As
a % of NW, coal exposure is just marginally higher than ICICI in these projects.
Risky corporates: Exposure to analysed companies (ex Infra) is 12% of NW (7% ICICI)
but lower than PSUs at 20-25%.
Of 55 risky assets we analysed, Axis is present in just ~40% of assets and average ticket
size of Rs5bn is ~1.6% of their NW which is lower than peer group.
Lanco
9%
GVK
5%
Abhijit
10%
Rpower
13%
Indiabulls
4%
Adani
6%
IPPs
17%
Other
Power
4%
Essar Steel
21%
Other Corp
11%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
L
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0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
P
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C
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C
I
No. of
risky
asset
present
in
Involvement
rate (%)
Avg.
ticket
size
(Rs m)
Ticket Size
% of
Networth
PNB 41 75.9% 5,620 1.80%
SBI 33 61.1% 15,146 1.53%
BOB 29 53.7% 4,538 1.47%
BOI 27 50.0% 3,233 1.42%
Union 26 48.1% 2,683 1.70%
Canara 24 44.4% 5,340 2.34%
Axis 23 42.6% 5,174 1.56%
ICICI 16 29.6% 9,517 1.75%
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Retail/Regional banks Negligible exposure!
Negligible exposure of regional/retail banks to these assets ex J&K bank
It is largely known that retail banks like HDFCB/ Kotak/ IIB have
limited Infra exposure which is also reflected in their almost
negligible exposure in these assets we have analyzed, it is
encouraging to see even regional banks have very limited exposure
to these assets (despite having some Infra exposure).
Retail banks Almost no exposure: High quality retail banks
like HDFCB/ Kotak/IIB have just 1-2 exposures in the power
space and no exposure to the list of risky corporates we
analysed. These exposures is <5% of their NW.
Yes Bank Positive read through: Even for mid-corporate
focused Yes bank exposure to these names is limited to <10% of
NW which should be comforting for investors to see, given the
recent volatility.
Federal/ING where we have been incrementally getting positive
on valuations also do not have limited exposure. ING has only a
single exposure, whereas Federals involvement is also
manageable at <10% of their NW.
J&K bank- the only exception: The only regional bank with
material exposure to these names is J&K bank, with nine
exposures aggregating to 36% of their NW (higher than
Axis/ICICI.).
Gas IPPs Coal Power
Risky
corporates
(ex-Infra)
Total
ICICI/Axi s 2.7% 5.5% 19.6% 22.4% 8.6% 31.0%
Retai l Pvt. 2.0% 0.3% 1.3% 3.3% 0.8% 4.1%
Regi onal 0.7% 1.5% 4.9% 5.6% 6.8% 12.4%
Large PSUs 4.3% 8.0% 27.2% 31.6% 23.7% 55.3%
Mi d PSUs 1.8% 6.6% 21.2% 22.9% 12.2% 35.1%
NBFCs 10.7% 18.0% 61.4% 72.1% 7.5% 79.5%
REC 15 27.8% 1.5% 21.0% 91.3% 92.8% 0.0% 92.8%
PNB 41 75.9% 3.8% 11.4% 33.0% 36.8% 36.9% 73.7%
PFC 17 31.5% 4.3% 27.5% 79.9% 84.1% 2.4% 86.5%
Canara 24 44.4% 5.1% 4.6% 18.1% 23.2% 32.9% 56.1%
SBI 33 61.1% 4.1% 7.0% 26.6% 30.7% 19.9% 50.5%
BOB 29 53.7% 6.0% 5.4% 15.1% 21.1% 21.5% 42.6%
Uni on 26 48.1% 2.0% 8.7% 29.2% 31.3% 12.9% 44.2%
J&K 9 16.7% 3.5% 3.1% 11.9% 15.5% 20.8% 36.3%
IDFC 9 16.7% 18.5% 3.0% 15.3% 33.8% 0.0% 33.8%
Axi s 23 42.6% 2.7% 6.7% 21.8% 24.5% 11.5% 35.9%
BOI 27 50.0% 1.7% 9.2% 29.5% 31.2% 7.2% 38.4%
ICICI 16 29.6% 2.7% 4.8% 18.3% 21.1% 6.9% 28.0%
LVB 1 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 13.3%
Federal 5 9.3% 0.0% 2.3% 5.4% 5.4% 5.5% 10.9%
Yes 3 5.6% 0.0% 2.6% 5.6% 5.6% 3.5% 9.1%
Karnataka 4 7.4% 0.0% 2.1% 5.6% 5.6% 1.5% 7.1%
IIB 1 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 3.9%
Kotak 1 1.9% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 3.8%
KVB 3 5.6% 0.0% 0.9% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 4.7%
HDFCB 3 5.6% 2.2% 0.0% 0.5% 2.7% 0.8% 3.5%
SIB 1 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 3.2%
ING 1 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% 2.9%
% of Networth
No. of
projects
involved
%
involvement
in No. of
projects
Lilladher
Prabhudas
SBI Group Large book but safer names underwritten
Low exposure to Infra conglomerates
Stress assets (% of NW)
Group share in SBIs Rs650bn of these assets
SBIs total debt to these assets is Rs650bn constituting ~50% of their NW
Gas risk low: SBIs gas exposure is largely Dabhol/Torrent linked, with limited
involvement in other plants in line with management guidance.
Coal exposure large but exposure to Infra conglomerates lower than peers: SBIs
exposure to coal power in these assets is similar to peers at 27% of NW but the
important point as management has been highlighting is that Infra conglomerate
exposure is lower than peers, with larger part of SBIs exposure being with
Adani/TATA/Torrent. Exposure of some SBI subsidiaries to IPPs is high.
Risky corporates Exposure large and names equally bad: SBIs exposure to risky
corporates (ex Infra) is similar to peers and data does not reflect any better under
writing as seen in the power book.
SBI being a bid daddy in Project finance is present in 60% of the cases. Ticket sizes is 2-
3x of peers but is in line with peers considering ticket size as a % of NW.
Lanco/GVK
0.2%
Abhijit
2.9% Rpower
6.2%
Indiabulls
1.7%
Adani
10.0%
JPA
6.7%
IPPs
16.6%
Other
Power
(Torrent/
Tata)
15.3%
Essar Steel
11.7%
Aircel
7.9%
Other Corp
20.8%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
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0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
P
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)
No. of
risky
asset
present
in
Involvement
rate (%)
Avg.
ticket
size
(Rs m)
Ticket Size
% of
Networth
PNB 41 75.9% 5,620 1.80%
SBI 33 61.1% 15,146 1.53%
BOB 29 53.7% 4,538 1.47%
BOI 27 50.0% 3,233 1.42%
Union 26 48.1% 2,683 1.70%
Canara 24 44.4% 5,340 2.34%
Axis 23 42.6% 5,174 1.56%
ICICI 16 29.6% 9,517 1.75%
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Large PSUs PNB/Canara worse off than peers!
PSU banks: PNB most exposed followed by Canara; Surprisingly
BOI/Union look better placed than SBI/BOB
Large PSU banks, ex SBI, have large exposure to both potentially
stressed power and ex-Infra large corporate assets, with PNB being
the worst of the lot followed by Canara. BOI/Union are relatively
better placed v/s SBI/ BOB among the exposures we analysed.
PNB Omnipresent Worst of the lot: PNB is present in
almost 75% of the problem assets identified, especially on the
ex-Infra large corporate portfolio. Exposure to these sensitive
assets is ~70% of NW v/s 40-50% for other large PSU peers.
BOB Small ticket power exposure but ex-Infra exposures
remain chunky: Exposure to these assets is ~43% of BOBs NW.
But as management has been highlighting, their ticket size in
power book is lower than peers but this cannot be said of their
large corporate book where average ticket size is similar to
PNB/Canara.
BOI/ Union Similar risk in power book but lower risk in ex-
Infra corporate book: BOI/Unions exposure to these power
assets is similar to peers at ~30% of NW. But surprisingly, their
involvement in some of the risky large corporates is significantly
lower than peers (~10% of NW v/s 20-30% of NW for peers).
SBI BOB PNB BOI Canara Union ICICI/Axis
% of Exposure
Lanco 0.2% 8.4% 6.6% 21.5% 15.4% 5.2% 4.1%
GVK 0.0% 2.9% 2.2% 1.2% 0.0% 5.2% 2.4%
Abhi ji t 3.3% 0.0% 3.1% 3.6% 0.0% 3.4% 4.4%
Rpower 8.0% 2.3% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 5.5%
Indi abul l s 1.9% 0.0% 2.2% 10.6% 1.8% 3.4% 1.5%
Adani 11.6% 5.2% 2.6% 9.0% 4.3% 6.5% 8.5%
JPA 2.1% 1.6% 4.5% 0.0% 2.5% 2.8% 17.8%
IPPs 14.4% 13.0% 15.5% 25.1% 8.3% 20.5% 17.6%
Other Power 17.4% 14.9% 9.2% 9.5% 8.4% 9.3% 10.5%
Essar Steel 10.6% 12.7% 7.6% 14.5% 17.8% 18.9% 19.3%
Ai rcel 8.4% 19.4% 13.1% 0.0% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Other Ri sky corporates 22.0% 19.6% 29.7% 5.1% 23.3% 11.6% 8.4%
All Infra congomerates 12.8% 16.3% 26.3% 17.9% 16.6% 28.7%
% of Networth
Total Power 30.7% 21.1% 36.8% 31.2% 23.2% 31.3% 22.4%
Power - Gas 4.1% 6.0% 3.8% 1.7% 5.1% 2.0% 2.7%
Power IPPs 7.0% 5.4% 11.4% 9.2% 4.6% 8.7% 5.5%
Power - Coal - Hi gh Ri sk 13.5% 10.3% 22.0% 19.4% 12.2% 19.0% 10.1%
Power - coal - Low Ri sk 13.1% 4.7% 10.9% 10.1% 5.9% 10.2% 9.6%
Power - Coal 26.6% 15.1% 33.0% 29.5% 18.1% 29.2% 19.6%
Ri sky corporates 19.9% 21.5% 36.9% 7.2% 32.9% 12.9% 8.6%
Power+ Risky Corporates 50.5% 42.6% 73.7% 38.4% 56.1% 44.2% 31.0%
% of Networth
Lanco 0.1% 3.5% 4.9% 7.9% 8.5% 2.2% 1.3%
GVK 0.0% 1.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0% 2.2% 0.8%
Abhi ji t 1.6% 0.0% 2.2% 1.3% 0.0% 1.4% 1.4%
Rpower 3.9% 1.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 1.7%
Indi abul l s 0.9% 0.0% 1.6% 3.9% 1.0% 1.5% 0.5%
Adani 5.6% 2.2% 1.9% 3.3% 2.4% 2.8% 2.7%
JPA 3.1% 1.6% 5.2% 2.2% 2.7% 3.7% 5.6%
IPPs 7.0% 5.4% 11.4% 9.2% 4.6% 8.7% 5.5%
Other Power 8.4% 6.2% 5.1% 2.9% 4.0% 3.2% 3.1%
Essar Steel 5.2% 5.3% 5.5% 5.3% 9.8% 8.0% 6.0%
Ai rcel 4.0% 8.1% 9.6% 0.0% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Total 50.5% 42.6% 73.7% 38.4% 56.1% 44.2% 31.0%
No. of accounts involved 33.0 29.0 41.0 27.0 24.0 26.0
% of accounts i nvol ved 61.1% 53.7% 75.9% 50.0% 44.4% 48.1%
Ticket Size (Rs mn) 15,146 4,538 5,620 3,233 5,340 2,683
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Smaller PSUs Lower exposure than larger peers
Medium/Small PSU banks do not have the required project finance expertise and have largely participated in consortium lending but
analysis of these assets indicate that their exposure to power is similar to large peers but lower to riskier corporates (ex-Infra) Pls note
that we do not cover these names and our comments are restricted to the data below
Worse off among small/medium PSUs - United, Uco, IOB (their exposure level is higher than exposure of larger PSU banks)
Better off among small/medium PSUs Dena, Indian, Central (exposure lower than larger PSUs)
PSU banks: PNB most exposed followed by Canara; Surprisingly BOI/Union look better placed than SBI/BOB
Corp Andhra BOM ALBK Dena OBC Vijaya Indian IOB Syndicate Central Uco United PSB
Large
PSUs Mid PSUs
% of Networth
Total Power 30.5% 36.4% 6.5% 23.9% 11.7% 21.3% 30.1% 19.0% 26.6% 16.7% 22.7% 56.5% 68.6% 28.4% 31.6% 22.9%
Power - Gas 1.0% 6.7% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.5% 2.1% 0.8% 3.1% 4.1% 0.6% 3.8% 4.3% 1.8%
Power IPPs 9.4% 2.3% 4.6% 3.0% 0.0% 5.4% 8.3% 6.6% 8.3% 3.6% 7.9% 12.9% 14.8% 6.9% 8.0% 6.6%
Power - Coal - Hi gh Ri sk 19.2% 26.5% 6.5% 8.6% 7.9% 14.5% 12.1% 14.1% 20.3% 6.6% 13.6% 35.5% 54.1% 21.1% 16.1% 15.0%
Power - coal - Low Ri sk 10.3% 3.2% 0.0% 13.3% 3.8% 4.8% 16.2% 3.4% 4.2% 9.3% 6.0% 16.9% 13.9% 3.6% 11.1% 6.1%
Power - Coal 29.5% 29.7% 6.5% 22.0% 11.7% 19.3% 28.3% 17.5% 24.5% 15.9% 19.6% 52.4% 67.9% 24.6% 27.2% 21.2%
Ri sky corporates 15.1% 3.8% 11.2% 14.8% 5.7% 19.1% 6.6% 1.8% 25.1% 18.1% 12.0% 15.2% 15.3% 2.7% 23.7% 12.2%
Power+ Risky Corporates 45.5% 40.2% 17.8% 38.7% 17.4% 40.3% 36.7% 20.8% 51.7% 34.8% 34.7% 71.7% 83.9% 31.2% 55.3% 35.1%
% of Networth
Lanco 4.0% 10.4% 0.0% 8.2% 5.8% 3.1% 7.6% 3.5% 7.4% 1.9% 3.7% 6.6% 4.7% 5.9% 3.3% 3.4%
GVK 1.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.2% 1.9% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 3.1% 6.4% 4.1% 0.6% 1.1%
Abhi ji t 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 0.4%
Rpower 2.6% 2.4% 0.0% 0.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 9.0% 0.0% 2.9% 0.8%
Indi abul l s 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 1.7% 2.5% 7.5% 0.0% 1.3% 0.7%
Adani 7.8% 3.5% 0.0% 5.8% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 4.7% 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 4.1% 4.1% 2.3%
JPA 5.2% 3.6% 1.9% 1.1% 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 1.8% 5.2% 2.1% 7.1% 7.1% 13.3% 0.0% 3.3% 3.3%
IPPs 9.4% 2.3% 4.6% 3.0% 0.0% 5.4% 8.3% 6.6% 8.3% 3.6% 7.9% 12.9% 14.8% 6.9% 8.0% 6.6%
Other Power 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% 4.8% 2.0% 4.6% 12.3% 3.7% 3.8% 0.8% 0.7% 15.1% 13.0% 7.3% 6.6% 4.3%
Essar Steel 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 7.8% 4.1% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 3.9%
Ai rcel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 1.2%
Other Ri sky corporates 2.5% 3.8% 11.2% 11.0% 5.7% 19.1% 6.6% 1.8% 11.1% 5.0% 7.9% 7.2% 15.3% 2.7% 11.6% 7.0%
Total 45.5% 40.2% 17.8% 38.7% 17.4% 40.3% 36.7% 20.8% 51.7% 34.8% 34.7% 71.7% 83.9% 31.2% 55.3% 35.1%
No. of accounts involved 18.0 18.0 7.0 17.0 8.0 22.0 12.0 16.0 17.0 13.0 17.0 22.0 20.0 10.0
% of accounts i nvol ved 33.3% 33.3% 13.0% 31.5% 14.8% 40.7% 22.2% 29.6% 31.5% 24.1% 31.5% 40.7% 37.0% 18.5%
Ticket Size (Rs mn) 2,419 1,883 1,338 2,387 1,067 2,217 1,621 1,409 3,745 2,560 2,742 2,978 2,206 1,133
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Infra NBFCs Not well placed; IDFC better of the lot
Infra NBCs + IDBI worst placed with large exposure to these assets 90-
90% of NW for REC/PFC/IDBI; 35% of NW for IDFC
Infra NBFCs (including IDBI) is ~80-90% of their NW in these risky
assets, with IDBI/PFC/REC having exposure of ~80-90% of NW and
IDFC having exposure of ~35% of NW in these assets.
IDFC Extent of exposure manageable but high gas exposure
remains a risk Among Infra NBFCs, IDFC is better placed but
their exposure to gas power is ~20% of their NW, which we
believe, is a risk. Existing buffer of provisions (Rs10bn) is ~40%
of IDFCs gas exposure in these plants providing some respite.
PFC/REC - High exposure to Coal assets in risky names Coal
power assets that we analysed is ~80-90% of their NW
PFC/RECs coal exposure of Rs175bn each in these assets is
comparable to SBI (Rs260bn) and also comparable is their ticket
size (Rs15-17bn) but coal names seem a lot more risky than
SBIs book (Infra conglomerates is 30-40% of PFC/RECs NW v/s
<10% exposure for SBI). The saving grace is that gas exposure of
PFC/REC is fairly limited.
IDBI bank Omnipresent in all risky names: IDBIs involvement
in all these risky assets is ~90% of their NW, with equally large
exposures in gas, coal and risky corporates.
IDBI REC PFC IDFC ICICI/Axis
Large
PSUs Mid PSUs
% of Exposure
Lanco 8.1% 21.6% 16.7% 32.0% 4.1% 6.1% 10.0%
GVK 4.6% 2.9% 2.2% 14.3% 2.4% 1.2% 3.1%
Abhi ji t 0.0% 10.9% 5.4% 0.0% 4.4% 2.5% 1.3%
Rpower 2.8% 8.2% 8.3% 0.0% 5.5% 5.4% 2.3%
Indi abul l s 0.0% 15.3% 13.2% 0.0% 1.5% 2.5% 2.1%
Adani 6.7% 7.9% 7.5% 11.0% 8.5% 7.7% 6.7%
JPA 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 6.6% 17.8% 2.5% 5.7%
IPPs 15.6% 22.3% 31.2% 8.8% 17.6% 14.9% 19.2%
Other Power 28.1% 11.0% 12.7% 27.2% 10.5% 13.1% 14.1%
Essar Steel 22.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.3% 11.9% 11.5%
Ai rcel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 3.5%
All Infra congomerates 18.2% 35.5% 24.3% 52.9% 28.7% 12.3% 20.2%
% of Networth
Total Power 65.0% 92.8% 84.1% 33.8% 22.4% 31.6% 22.9%
Power - Gas 21.5% 1.5% 4.3% 18.5% 2.7% 4.3% 1.8%
Power IPPs 14.1% 21.0% 27.5% 3.0% 5.5% 8.0% 6.6%
Power - Coal - Hi gh Ri sk 27.7% 50.1% 47.1% 16.0% 10.1% 16.1% 15.0%
Power - coal - Low Ri sk 15.8% 41.2% 32.8% -0.7% 9.6% 11.1% 6.1%
Power - Coal 43.5% 91.3% 79.9% 15.3% 19.6% 27.2% 21.2%
Ri sky corporates 25.7% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 8.6% 23.7% 12.2%
Power+ Risky Corporates 90.7% 92.8% 86.5% 33.8% 31.0% 55.3% 35.1%
% of Networth
Lanco 7.3% 20.4% 14.7% 10.8% 1.3% 3.3% 3.4%
GVK 4.1% 2.7% 2.0% 4.8% 0.8% 0.6% 1.1%
Abhi ji t 0.0% 10.3% 4.8% 0.0% 1.4% 1.4% 0.4%
Rpower 2.6% 7.7% 7.4% 0.0% 1.7% 2.9% 0.8%
Indi abul l s 0.0% 14.4% 11.6% 0.0% 0.5% 1.3% 0.7%
Adani 6.0% 7.4% 6.7% 3.7% 2.7% 4.1% 2.3%
JPA 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 5.6% 3.3% 3.3%
IPPs 14.1% 21.0% 27.5% 3.0% 5.5% 8.0% 6.6%
Other Power 23.9% 8.9% 9.5% 9.2% 3.1% 6.6% 4.3%
Essar Steel 20.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 6.4% 3.9%
Ai rcel 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 1.2%
Total 90.7% 92.8% 86.5% 33.8% 31.0% 55.3% 35.1%
No. of accounts involved 28.0 15.0 17.0 9.0
% of accounts i nvol ved 51.9% 27.8% 31.5% 16.7%
Ticket Size (Rs mn) 6,309 10,797 12,235 5,037
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Factoring large corporate risk into valuations
Private banks stack up better on adjusted basis
Our current stress Test: We have been running a stress test on book values for all corporate banks under our coverage with adjustment for
(1) 70% NPA coverage (2) 25% higher slippages from the restructured book and (3) Future stress based on Infra and large corporate exposure.
Substituting stress from these US$50bn exposure to Future stress in our stress testing exercise : ~85% of the assets we have analyzed is
not NPA/restructured for banks currently and hence, indicates potential future stress from the large corporate book. Hence, we substitute our
future test based on sectoral exposures to a more certain stress test based on their relative exposures in these US$50bn assets.
Changes to our stress test based on stress from these US$50bn assets: Stress for ICICI and retail banks is similar to our earlier stress
assumptions but marginally higher for Axis bank. Among PSUs, PNB clearly stands out in terms of its high exposure to these assets and hence,
stress is higher than we initially estimated through sectoral data.
Axis/ ICICI better placed than PSUs: Adjusted for all the stress, we see ICICI/Axis better placed than PSU banks as their hit on book value is
~50-55% of NW (v/s 20-25% for ICICI/Axis) driven by ~20-25% hit due to 70% NPA coverage and higher restructuring provisions and ~25-30%
hit to NW from future stress derived from the US$50bn stress assets. Relative to its own trading history and negligible sensitivity, HDFCB also
offers some value according to us among defensives.
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
ICICI Axis Yes SBI PNB BOB BOI Union
Normalised P/B Adjusted P/B P/B after Stress (earlier) P/B after stress (Now)
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Stress test Adjusting historic book values
ICICI Axis HDFCB Kotak Indusind Yes SBI PNB BOB BOI Union
Sep-14 Reported book 550 848 199 256 176 213 2,100 1,043 853 440 301
P/B on reported book 1.35 1.18 3.20 2.75 2.32 1.44 0.72 0.44 0.56 0.34 0.36
Impact from adjusting to 70% NPA coverage:
Gross NPAs (4Q13) 96,078 23,934 23,346 7,580 4,578 943 799,843 134,658 79,826 87,653 63,138
Net NPAs (4Q13) 22,306 7,041 4,690 3,603 1,368 70 373,527 72,365 41,920 59,473 33,534
Coverage (%) 76.8% 70.6% 79.9% 52.5% 70.1% 92.6% 53.3% 46.3% 47.5% 32.1% 46.9%
Intended coverage (%) 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70%
70% coverage impact -Per Share - - 2 203 95 50 57 25
% impact from 70% coverage adjustment 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.7% 0.0% 0.0% -9.7% -9.1% -5.8% -13.0% -8.3%
Sep-14 Adjusted book (ex. Restructuring) 550 848 199 255 176 213 1,898 948 804 383 276
Sep-14 Price to adj. book 1.35 1.18 3.20 2.77 2.32 1.44 0.79 0.49 0.60 0.39 0.39
Impact from slippages on Restructured book
Restructured book - 4QFY13 69,490 47,010 5,281 576 1,597 1,844 560,443 321,434 226,174 191,750 116,260
AI - - - - - - 12,000 16,000 24,000 27,000 10,000
SEB's - - - - - - - 77,000 45,000 40,000 25,000
Restructured book (ex AI +SEBs) 69,490 47,010 5,281 576 1,597 1,844 548,443 228,434 157,174 124,750 81,260
Cumul ati ve Sl i ppages (Rs m) 11,238 3,335 4,470 464 197 421 141,479 16,160 26,115 19,030 28,050
Sl i ppages (%) ex AI +SEBs 16.2% 7.1% 84.6% 80.6% 12.3% 22.8% 25.8% 7.1% 16.6% 15.3% 34.5%
Addi ti onal sl i ppgaes (%) - Ex AI +SEBs 25.0% 25.0% 10.0% 10.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
Additional slippgaes ex AI +SEB 17,373 11,753 528 58 399 461 137,111 57,109 39,293 31,188 20,315
NPV i mpact AI (% of exposure) 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
NPV i mpact SEBs (% of exposure) 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Impact from AI +SEB - - - - - 1,200 9,300 6,900 6,700 3,500
Impact from restructured book - Per Share 13 26 1 0 1 1 210 197 128 66 41
% impact from restructured book slippages 2.4% 3.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 10.0% 18.9% 15.0% 14.9% 13.6%
Sep-14 Adjusted book (incl. restrcuturing) 537 822 198 254 176 212 1,688 751 676 317 235
Sep-14 Price to adj. book 1.39 1.21 3.22 2.77 2.33 1.45 0.89 0.62 0.71 0.48 0.46
Price 969 998 637 704 410 307 1,632 463 481 151 109
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Stress test Adjusting for future stress
Old stress Case ICICI Axis HDFCB Kotak Indusind Yes SBI PNB BOB BOI Union
Stress sectors (ex Infra) 17.7% 13.4% 13.9% 16.5% 13.1% 19.7% 19.7% 18.9% 22.0% 18.7% 17.5%
Addi ti onal stress 5.0% 7.5% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 8.0% 7.5% 7.5%
Non Infra ( % of total exposure) 0.88% 1.00% 0.42% 0.49% 0.39% 0.99% 1.48% 1.89% 1.76% 1.40% 1.32%
Infra Portfolio 8.6% 13.4% 2.1% 5.0% 2.4% 8.4% 11.2% 16.1% 13.3% 16.2% 13.1%
SEB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 4.6% 3.3% 3.8% 4.0%
Pri vate power 5.2% 6.8% 2.1% 3.1% 2.4% 5.1% 3.8% 6.5% 3.8% 7.2% 5.1%
Other Infra 3.4% 6.6% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 3.3% 5.0% 5.1% 6.3% 5.2% 3.9%
Additional stress - Infra
SEB 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pri vate power 7.5% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 7.5% 12.5% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Other Infra 7.5% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 7.5% 7.5% 12.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5%
Infra ( % of total exposure) 0.64% 1.34% 0.10% 0.25% 0.12% 0.50% 0.66% 1.44% 0.85% 1.11% 0.81%
Total stress (% of Exposure) 1.53% 2.35% 0.52% 0.74% 0.51% 1.49% 2.14% 3.33% 2.60% 2.51% 2.13%
Total stress (% of Loans) 4.62% 4.48% 0.67% 1.01% 1.09% 3.63% 2.99% 4.32% 3.22% 3.20% 2.60%
Exposure (Rs bn) 8671 3732 3112 777 970 1169 18901 3850 3930 3541 2470
Wri te offs (Rs bn) 132.3 87.7 16.2 5.8 5.0 17.4 404.1 128.2 102.3 88.9 52.5
Sep-14 Equity 647 408 474 196 92 76 1,465 375 368 270 185
% of Sep-14 Equity 20.4% 21.5% 3.4% 2.9% 5.4% 22.8% 27.6% 34.2% 27.8% 32.9% 28.3%
New Stress case ICICI Axis HDFCB Kotak Indusind Yes SBI PNB BOB BOI Union
Power Gas 14,886 8,983 8,000 3,613 0 0 40,249 12,007 18,579 3,950 3,170
Coal IPPs 25,948 20,400 0 0 0 1,500 68,916 30,540 16,700 19,664 12,526
Coal - Other hi gh ri sk 8,800 32,949 0 0 0 1,750 64,432 38,250 15,190 24,494 17,550
Power coal - Low Ri sk 64,980 18,745 1,750 0 2,860 0 129,615 34,180 14,640 22,850 16,140
Ri sky Corporates not restructured 27,500 25,220 2,800 0 0 0 91,000 47,330 41,320 12,090 12,640
Ri sky corporates restructured 10,150 12,705 0 0 0 2,040 105,604 68,123 25,180 4,254 7,740
Stress power + corporates 79,577 70,792 8,625 2,710 858 2,889 264,629 124,455 79,768 49,818 39,333
Stress Other Infra 22,051 24,787 - 743 (0) 2,880 70,929 24,344 18,430 13,867 7,318
Total stress assets 101,628 95,579 8,625 3,452 858 5,769 335,557 148,798 98,198 63,685 46,651
% of Networth 15.7% 23.5% 1.8% 1.8% 0.9% 7.6% 22.9% 39.7% 26.7% 23.6% 25.2%
Adjusted P/B 1.64 1.59 3.28 2.82 2.36 1.57 1.16 1.02 0.97 0.62 0.62
v/s normalised vals -3.3% -6.7% -6.4% 4.3% -5.8% -12.9% 5.3% 20.2% 14.2% -4.2% -4.8%
Normalised P/B 1.70 1.70 3.50 2.70 2.50 1.80 1.10 0.85 0.85 0.65 0.65
Adjusted P/B 1.39 1.21 3.22 2.77 2.33 1.45 0.89 0.62 0.71 0.48 0.46
P/B after Stress (earl i er) 1.74 1.55 3.33 2.85 2.47 1.88 1.23 0.94 0.99 0.71 0.65
P/B after stress (Now) 1.64 1.59 3.28 2.82 2.36 1.57 1.16 1.02 0.97 0.62 0.62
v/s Normalised vals -3.3% -6.7% -6.4% 4.3% -5.8% -12.9% 5.3% 20.2% 14.2% -4.2% -4.8%
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Stress test Impact Analysis
% of Loans ICICI Axis HDFCB Kotak Indusind Yes SBI PNB BOB BOI Union
Gross NPAs (FY13) 3.36% 1.22% 0.96% 1.33% 1.00% 0.20% 5.93% 4.54% 2.51% 3.15% 3.13%
Restructuri ng (net of sl i ppages) 2.04% 2.23% 0.03% 0.02% 0.30% 0.30% 3.10% 10.29% 6.29% 6.21% 4.37%
Total stressed Assets 5.39% 3.45% 1.00% 1.34% 1.30% 0.49% 9.03% 14.84% 8.80% 9.37% 7.51%
NPA Provi si ons 2.58% 0.86% 0.77% 0.70% 0.70% 0.18% 3.16% 2.10% 1.19% 1.01% 1.47%
Fl oati ng Provi si ons 0.00% 0.19% 0.75% 0.00% 0.17% 0.17% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Total Provi si ons (Ex standard) 2.58% 1.05% 1.52% 0.70% 0.87% 0.35% 3.16% 2.10% 1.19% 1.01% 1.47%
Reported coverage 76.78% 70.58% 79.91% 52.46% 70.13% 92.59% 53.30% 46.26% 47.49% 32.15% 46.89%
Coverage (NPA + Restructuring ) 47.80% 30.53% 152.99% 51.70% 67.08% 70.72% 34.98% 14.16% 13.54% 10.82% 19.56%
Provsions factored in the stress test
Future stress 3.93% 3.81% 0.57% 0.86% 0.92% 3.09% 2.55% 3.68% 2.74% 2.72% 2.21%
NPA Provi si ons (for 70% coverage) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.20% 0.00% 0.00% 0.84% 0.92% 0.48% 1.01% 0.62%
Restructuri ng provi si ons 0.52% 0.51% 0.02% 0.01% 0.07% 0.08% 0.87% 1.90% 1.23% 1.16% 1.00%
Extra provisions 4.44% 4.32% 0.59% 1.06% 1.00% 3.17% 4.26% 6.50% 4.45% 4.89% 3.83%
Total Provisions (post stress test) 7.0% 5.4% 2.1% 1.8% 1.9% 3.5% 7.4% 8.6% 5.6% 5.9% 5.3%
Coverage on stress test (%) 75.3% 74.0% 134.9% 79.9% 84.1% 98.2% 64.1% 46.4% 48.9% 48.9% 54.5%
Impact on Equity from stress testing (old stress test)
70% NPA coverage 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 9.1% 5.8% 13.0% 8.3%
Restructuri ng 2.4% 3.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 10.0% 18.9% 15.0% 14.9% 13.6%
Future stress 20.4% 21.5% 3.4% 2.9% 5.4% 22.8% 27.6% 34.2% 27.8% 32.9% 28.3%
Total stress 22.8% 24.6% 4.0% 3.7% 5.8% 23.4% 47.2% 62.1% 48.6% 60.8% 50.3%
Impact on Equity from stress testing (New stress test)
70% NPA coverage 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 9.1% 5.8% 13.0% 8.3%
Restructuri ng 2.4% 3.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 10.0% 18.9% 15.0% 14.9% 13.6%
Future stress 15.7% 23.5% 1.8% 1.8% 0.9% 7.6% 22.9% 39.7% 26.7% 23.6% 25.2%
Total stress 18.1% 26.5% 2.4% 2.5% 1.4% 8.2% 42.6% 67.6% 47.5% 51.5% 47.1%
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Group Level exposures Lanco / GVK
GVK - Bank/ NBFC exposure ( % of total debt)
GVK Bank/NBFC exposure (% of NW)
Lanco Infra Bank/NBFC exposure (% of NW)
Lanco Infra - Bank/ NBFC exposure ( % of total debt)
Lanco Rs267bn in 5 power SPVs
Large exposures REC, PFC, Canara, BOI
Small/negligible exposures ICICI, SBI
GVK Rs267bn in 5 projects analyzed
Large exposures IDFC, IDBI, PNB
Small/negligible exposures SBI, ICICI, Canara
Large PSBs
28.4%
REC/PFC
26.5%
Other PSBs
19.9%
NBFCs/FIs
9.8%
IDFC
5.4%
IDBI
5.3%
Axis
4.2%
SBI & Asso
0.4%
ICICI
0.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
R
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Other PSBs
33%
Large PSBs
17%
REC/PFC
15%
IDBI
13%
IDFC
10%
Axis
10%
Retail/Regional
2%
Others
1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
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Lilladher
Prabhudas
Group Level exposures JPA / GMR
GMR- Bank/ NBFC exposure ( % of total debt)
GMR Bank/NBFC exposure (% of NW)
JPA Bank/NBFC exposure (% of NW)
JPA - Bank/ NBFC exposure ( % of total debt)
JPA Rs210bn in 4 power SPVs
Large exposures ICICI, SBI, PNB, IDBI
Small/negligible exposures Axis, BOB
GMR Rs19bn in 1 Power SPV
Large exposures IDBI, PNB
Small/negligible exposures ICICI, SBI
ICICI
23%
Axis
0%
SBI & Asso
20%
Large PSBs
18%
Other PSBs
23%
IDBI
7%
IDFC
1%
Others
7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
U
n
i
t
e
d
I
C
I
C
I
C
e
n
t
r
a
l
U
c
o
I
D
B
I
C
o
r
p
P
N
B
I
O
B
U
n
i
o
n
O
B
C
S
B
I
C
a
n
a
r
a
J
&
K
I
D
F
C
B
O
I
I
n
d
i
a
n
B
O
B
A
L
B
K
A
x
i
s
R
E
C
P
F
C
Other PSBs
29%
IDBI
25%
Large PSBs
24%
Retail
9%
SBI & Asso
9%
IDFC
4%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
J
&
K
P
S
B
S
B
P
I
D
B
I
A
n
d
h
r
a
A
l
l

B
k
I
O
B
S
y
n
d
i
c
a
t
e
U
n
i
t
e
d
I
D
F
C
P
N
B
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Group Level exposures R-Power / Adani Power
Adani Power- Bank/ NBFC exposure ( % of total debt)
Adani Power Bank/NBFC exposure (% of NW)
R Power Bank/NBFC exposure (% of NW)
R Power - Bank/ NBFC exposure ( % of total debt)
R-power Rs235bn in 3 Power SPVs
Large exposures Foreign banks, REC, PFC, Axis, SBI
Small/negligible exposures ICICI, IDFC, BOB
Adani Power Rs230bn in 2 Power SPVs
Large exposures SBI, REC, PFC, IDBI, ICICI
Small/negligible exposures Axis, IDFC
Foreign
34.2%
SBI & Asso
20.1%
REC/PFC
15.7%
Axis
7.6%
Large PSBs
7.8%
Other PSBs
9.3%
IDBI
2.5%
Retail
1.6%
Other NBFCS
1.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
U
n
i
t
e
d
R
E
C
P
F
C
U
n

B
k
A
x
i
s
S
B
I
S
I
B
Y
e
s
P
N
B
I
D
B
I
C
o
r
p

B
k
A
n
d
h
r
a
D
e
n
a
S
B
T
K
V
B
U
c
o
B
O
B
SBI & Asso
28.9%
Large PSBs
17.7%
REC/PFC
13.1%
Other PSBs
10.5%
Foreign
9.4%
ICICI
7.1%
IDBI
5.3% Axis
3.4%
Retail
2.5%
IDFC
2.3%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
C
o
r
p

B
k
R
E
C
P
F
C
I
D
B
I
A
l
l

B
k
S
B
I
U
c
o
S
B
B
J
S
y
n
d
i
c
a
t
e
P
S
B
S
B
T
I
I
B
S
B
P
I
D
F
C
A
n
d
h
r
a
B
O
I
I
C
I
C
I
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Group Level exposures Ibulls Power / Aircel
Aircel - Bank/ NBFC exposure ( % of total debt)
Aircel - Bank/NBFC exposure (% of NW)
Ibulls Power - Bank/NBFC exposure (% of NW)
Ibulls Power- Bank/ NBFC exposure (% of total debt)
Ibulls Power Rs103bn in 2 power SPVs (Phase-1)
Large exposures REC, PFC, BOI
Small/negligible exposures ICICI, IDFC, BOB
Aircel group Rs176bn Corporate Level
Large exposures Canara, PNB, J&K, BOB, SBI & Subs
Small/negligible exposures Axis, ICICI, IDFC
REC/PFC
54%
Large PSBs
16%
Other PSBs
14%
SBI & Asso
11%
Axis
4%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
R
E
C
P
F
C
U
n
i
t
e
d
B
O
I
S
y
n
d
i
c
a
t
e
S
B
T
U
c
o
C
e
n
t
r
a
l
S
B
B
J
P
N
B
U
n

B
k
A
x
i
s
C
a
n

B
k
S
B
I
Large PSBs
53%
SBI & Asso
34%
Other PSBs
7%
Retail
4%
Other NBFCS
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
C
a
n

B
k
P
N
B
J
&
K
B
O
B
S
B
M
L
T

I
n

F
i
n
S
B
T
S
B
P
S
y
n
d
i
c
a
t
e
I
O
B
S
B
I
S
B
H
F
e
d
e
r
a
l
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Group Level exposures Jindal Stainless/ Essar Steel
Essar steel - Bank/ NBFC exposure ( % of total debt)
Essar Steel- Bank/NBFC exposure (% of NW)
Jindal Stainless - Bank/NBFC exposure (% of NW)
Jindal Stainless- Bank/ NBFC exposure ( % of total debt)
Jindal Stainless Rs87bn at Group Level
Large exposures SBI, PNB, Canara
Small/negligible exposures Private banks
Essar Steel Rs335bn exposure at Group level
Large exposures SBI, IDBI, Canara, Axis, ICICI, SBI subs
Small/negligible exposures HDFCB, OBC
SBI & Asso
49%
Large PSBs
46%
Axis
3%
ICICI
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
SBP PNB Can Bk SBI BOB Axis
Large PSBs
26%
SBI & Asso
23%
Other PSBs
14%
IDBI
12%
ICICI
8%
Axis
8%
Other NBFCS
6%
Retail
3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
I
D
B
I
S
B
M
S
B
P
L
V
B
C
o
r
p

B
k
J
&
K
C
a
n

B
k
S
B
H
I
O
B
U
n

B
k
U
c
o
S
y
n
d
i
c
a
t
e
A
x
i
s
S
R
E
I
S
B
B
J
H
D
F
C

L
t
d
P
N
B
B
O
I
B
O
B
S
B
I
I
C
I
C
I
C
e
n
t
r
a
l
A
l
l

B
k
Lilladher
Prabhudas
Disclaimer

BUY : Over 15% Outperformance to Sensex over 12-months Accumulate : Outperformance to Sensex over 12-months
Reduce : Underperformance to Sensex over 12-months Sell : Over 15% underperformance to Sensex over 12-months
Trading Buy : Over 10% absolute upside in 1-month Trading Sell : Over 10% absolute decline in 1-month
Not Rated (NR) : No specific call on the stock Under Review (UR) : Rating likely to change shortly
This document has been prepared by the Research Division of Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. Mumbai, India (PL) and is meant for use by the recipient only as information and is not for circulation. This document is
not to be reported or copied or made available to others without prior permission of PL. It should not be considered or taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell any security.
The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are considered to be reliable. However, PL has not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the same. Neither PL nor any
of its affiliates, its directors or its employees accept any responsibility of whatsoever nature for the information, statements and opinion given, made available or expressed herein or for any omission therein.
Recipients of this report should be aware that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and value of investments can go down as well. The suitability or otherwise of any investments will
depend upon the recipient's particular circumstances and, in case of doubt, advice should be sought from an independent expert/advisor.
Either PL or its affiliates or its directors or its employees or its representatives or its clients or their relatives may have position(s), make market, act as principal or engage in transactions of securities of companies
referred to in this report and they may have used the research material prior to publication.
We may from time to time solicit or perform investment banking or other services for any company mentioned in this document.
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3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai 400 018, India.
Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209
PLs Recommendation Nomenclature
Rating Distribution of Research Coverage
27.8%
51.6%
17.5%
3.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
BUY Accumulate Reduce Sell
%

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