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ADAPTING TO CLIMATE

VARIABILITY AND CHANGE


A GUIDANCE MANUAL FOR DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
August 2007
PhotoCredits(ClockwisefromUpperLeft):
(UpperLeft)AnaerialviewshowsfloodedfieldsafterheavymonsoonrainsontheoutskirtsofthecentralIndiancity
ofRaipur,June30,2007. TheonsetoftherainyseasonbroughtsevereweathertomuchofSouthAsia,killingmore
than500peopleinstormsandfloodsinAfghanistan,IndiaandPakistan.REUTERS/DesmondBoylan(India).
(UpperRight)FishinginseasonalwetlandsintheLowerSongkramRiverBasininThailand.IUCN,2006.
(LowerRight)AnIndiafarmerinspectswhatsleftofhiscropduringadroughtnearPatialainthenorthernstateof
Punjab,July17,2002.REUTERS/DipakKumar.
(LowerLeft)AfarmerinNorthernNigerdrinksfromawellusedforirrigatingdates,grainandothercropsinthe
Sahara.JohnFurlow,Niger,2003.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
WhyIsClimateChangeImportant? .........................................1
WhatIsUSAIDDoingaboutClimateChange?.............................2
ClimateImpactsandDevelopment ......................................3
AdaptationandtheProjectCycle ...........................................6
FAQs:IncorporatingV&AintoProjectDesigns ................................8
IntegratingV&AElementsintoProjects .....................................10
Step1:ScreenforVulnerability ........................................10
Step2:IdentifyAdaptationOptions ....................................13
Step3:ConductAnalysis .............................................15
Step4:SelectCourseofAction ........................................18
Step5:ImplementAdaptations ........................................18
Step6:EvaluatetheAdaptations .......................................19
ConclusionandNextSteps ...............................................20
ANNEXES
Annex1PilotStudyContributors ........................................21
Annex2V&AResourcesandLinks .......................................22
EXHIBITS
Exhibit1GDPandRainfallinEthiopia ....................................1
Exhibit2V&APilotStudies .............................................3
Exhibit3ClimateChangesandImpacts ....................................4
Exhibit4ClimateChangeImpactsandAdaptationsinUSAIDObjectiveAreas ......5
Exhibit5TheProjectCycleandtheV&AApproach ...........................6
Exhibit6StepstoIncorporateClimateChangeintoProjectPlanning ............11
Exhibit7Checklist:ShouldV&ABeAdded?................................13
Exhibit8ParticipatoryProcessBestPractices ...............................14
Exhibit9IdentifyingAdaptations:V&APilotStudyApproach ..................14
Exhibit10AdaptationOptionsIdentifiedfortheV&APilotStudies .............16
Exhibit11CriteriaforAnalyzingAdaptations ...............................17
Exhibit12MatrixforEvaluatingAdaptationOptionsinPolokwane,SouthAfrica ...18
Exhibit13SelectingaCourseofAction....................................19
Exhibit14ImplementationofAdaptationsinLaCeiba,Honduras ...............20
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE i
ACRONYMS
USAID UnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment
GCC GlobalClimateChange
GHG GreenhouseGas
GDP GrossDomesticProduct
V&A VulnerabilityandAdaptation
IPCC IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange
EGAT BureauforEconomicGrowth,AgricultureandTrade
CRiSTAL Community-basedRiskScreeningToolAdaptation&Livelihoods
CFR CodeofFederalRegulations
GCM GeneralCirculationModels(GlobalClimateModels)
NGO Non-GovernmentalOrganization
MIRA ManejoIntegradodeRecursosAmbientales(IntegratedManagementofEnvironmental
Resources-USAIDprojectinHonduras)
UNEP UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE ii
PREFACE
Climatechangemayposerisksand/orcreateopportunitiesfordevelopmenteffortsinmanycountries.The
USAIDGlobalClimateChangeTeamdevelopedthisAdaptationGuidanceManualtoassistMissionsandother
partnerstounderstandhowclimatechangemayaffecttheirprojectoutcomesandidentifyadaptationoptionsto
integrateintothedesignformoreresilientprojects.IndevelopingtheManualweworkedunderthefollowing
assumptions:
Climatevariabilityalreadyimpactseconomicsectorsindevelopingcountriesandaddressingclimate
variabilityandchangewillbeimportantforthelong-termsuccessofdevelopmentassistance;
Projectmanagersandstakeholderswillknowmoreaboutaprojectthanwewill(orthanatoolcan
anticipate);projectmanagersarealreadydealingwithuncertaintysuchasweatherandmarkets;
Wecanassistmissions/projectmanagers/projectdesignersbyprovidingmethodsandinformation(andwe
aredevelopingatooltoprovideaccesstoappropriateclimateinformation,pastandfuture)tofacilitate
assessmentofpossibleimpactsandadaptationoptionsforprojects;
Stakeholderinvolvementiscriticallocalknowledgeandmemoryofclimatechangesovertimecanhelp
identifyadaptationoptions;buildingstakeholderownershipofprojectdesignandimplementationiskeyto
projectsuccess.
Themethodsemployedshouldbesimpleenoughtomeetneedsinthefield,butproviderigorousenough
informationonwhichtobasedecisions.
ThisAdaptationGuidanceManualisthefirstofseveraltoolswearedevelopingtoassistplannersand
stakeholdersastheycopewithachangingclimate. AsweworkwithMissionstoapplythemethodsdescribed
here,wewillrevisetheManualtoreflectMissionfeedbackandneeds.Wewillalsodevelopadditionaltoolsas
needed. WelookforwardtoworkingwithMissionsandotherdevelopmentpartnerstobuildmorerobustand
resilientdevelopmentactivities.
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ThisguidancemanualwaspreparedbyInternationalResourcesGroup(IRG)throughanEnvironmentalPolicy
andInstitutionalStrengthening(EPIQII)IndefiniteQuantitiesContracttaskorderwiththeUSAgencyfor
InternationalDevelopment,BureauforEconomicGrowth,AgricultureandTrade(USAID/EGAT)(Contract
No.EPP-I-00-03-00013-00).GlenAnderson,IRGSeniorManager,coordinatedthedevelopmentofthis
manualwithassistancefromIRGcolleaguesFirrasTraish,PradeepTharakan,JamesTarrant,SueTelingator,
HelgaHuet,KathrynHoeflich,andKyungKim.SpecialthankstoKathyAlisonofTrainingResourcesGroup,
Inc.andWinrockInternationalsclimatechangegroupledbySandraBrown.
WeappreciatethesupportandguidanceoftheUSAID/EGATGlobalClimateChangeTeam.Inparticular,we
wishtothankJohnFurlow,JonathanPadgham,DuaneMuller,andBillBreed.WealsowanttothankKo
Barrett,nowattheNationalOceanographicandAtmosphericAdministrationsClimateProgramOffice,for
initiatingtheprojectandbeginningthepilotstudies.
WewouldalsoliketothankJoelB.SmithandStratusConsultingforworkdonetodeveloptheoriginalversion
ofthisManual.Stratusalsoledthreeofthepilotsthatinformedandtestedthedevelopmentofthemanual.
KenStrzepekandKrisEbiprovidedinvaluablesupporttoStratusandUSAIDintheconductofthepilotsand
thedevelopmentofthemanual,andcontinuetoprovidesupportaswemovefromdevelopmentto
implementation.(AfulllistofcontributorstoallthepilotsisincludedinAnnex1.)
WewouldespeciallyliketothankthestaffandcontractorsoftheUSAIDMissionsinthepilotcountries.In
particular,wewishtothankPeterHearneoftheUSAIDMissioninTegucigalpa,Honduras;SarahWines,
MelissaKnight,NkosiphambiliNdlovu,andPlaatjieMahlobogoaneoftheUSAIDMissioninPretoria,South
Africa;JeanHarmanandAugustinDembeleoftheUSAIDMissioninBamako,Mali;andOrestesAnastasia
andWinstonBowmanoftheRegionalDevelopmentMissionforAsiainBangkok,Thailand.Withouttheir
supportandguidance,wewouldhavebeenunabletocarryoutthepilotstudies.
Finally,weappreciatetheusefulcommentsandsuggestionsonthedraftguidancemanualfromanumberof
climatechangeandpolicyspecialistsincluding:JamesHansenandSteveZebiak(TheInternationalResearch
InstituteforClimateandSociety,ColumbiaUniversity);HabibaGitay(WorldBankInstitute);RichardVolk,
DoreenRobinson,andKenBaum(USAID/EGAT);HeatherDAgnes(USAIDGlobalHealthBureau);and
JeanBrennan(formerlyUSAID/EGAT).
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE iv
WHY IS
CLIMATE
CHANGE
IMPORTANT?
C
limatechangecreatesbothrisksand
opportunitiesworldwide.Byunderstanding,
planningforandadaptingtoachanging
climate,individualsandsocietiescantakeadvantage
ofopportunitiesandreducerisks.
Theconsequencesofclimatevariabilityandclimate
changearepotentiallymoresignificantforthepoorin
developingcountriesthanforthoselivinginmore
prosperousnations.Vulnerabilitytotheimpactsof
climatechangeisafunctionofexposuretoclimate
variables,sensitivitytothosevariables,andthe
adaptivecapacityoftheaffectedcommunity.Often,
thepooraredependentoneconomicactivitiesthatare
sensitivetotheclimate.Forexample,agricultureand
forestryactivitiesdependonlocalweatherandclimate
conditions;achangeinthoseconditionscoulddirectly
impactproductivitylevelsanddiminishlivelihoods.
ClimatechangehasthepotentialtoaffectUSAID
activitiesinallobjectiveareasdescribedinthePolicy
Framework(SeeExhibit4).Adaptingtoclimate
changeinvolvesreducingexposureandsensitivityand
increasingadaptivecapacity.Dependinguponthe
developmentchallengebeingaddressed,thismaybe
donebymodifyingatraditionalapproachorbytaking
anewapproach.
Climatevariabilitycancauseabruptdisruptions,such
asfloods,droughts,ortropicalstorms.These
disruptionscantakeamajortollonacountrys
economyifasignificantpartofeconomicactivityis
sensitivetotheweatherandclimate.Ethiopiaprovides
agoodexampleoftheinfluenceofclimatevariability
onadevelopingcountryseconomy.Exhibit1shows
thatGDPinEthiopiarisesorfallsaboutayear
behindchangesinaveragerainfall.Withagriculture
accountingforhalfofGDPand80%ofjobs,the
Ethiopianeconomyissensitivetoclimatevariability,
particularlyvariationsinrainfall.
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
SmallcountrieswithGDPconcentratedinafew
climate-sensitivesectorscanseesubstantialportionsof
theirlandareaandeconomicsectorsaffectedby
extremeweathereventsanddisasters.Resourcesspent
ondisasterresponsecantieupasignificantshareof
GDP;recovery,ratherthangrowth,becomesthegoal.
HurricaneMitchhitHondurasinOctober,1998.
Coastalareaswerelashedbywindsandwaves,but
someoftheworstdamageresultedfromseveral
EXHIBIT 1 - GDP AND RAINFALL IN
ETHIOPIA
TEGUCIGALPA-NOVEMBER2: Tegucigalaparesidentslookat
someofthehomesdestroyedbyamudslideonCerroEl
BerrincheonNovember2,1998. Themudslidewastriggered
byheavyrainsfromwhatwasHurricaneMitch.Honduran
officialsputthedeathtollat5,000peoplewithhalfamillionleft
homeless.(Photoby: YuriCortez/AFP/GettyImages)
1
straightdaysoftorrentialrains.Overameterofrain
fellandcontributedtofloodingandlandslides. Before
itwasover,morethan5,000peoplewerereported
deadormissing,and1.5millionpeoplelosttheir
homes. Damagestotaled$3billion,includingtheloss
oftheentirebananacrop.Roadsweredamagedand
68bridgesweresweptaway.
1
Anticipatingclimaticvariabilityandchangewhile
designingresilienceintodevelopmentassistancecan
leadtomorerobustprojectsthatservetheirtarget
populationsbetter.Insomecases,projectsmaynotbe
designedtocopeadequatelywithcurrentclimate
variability.Inevenmorecases,theymaynotbeableto
copewithclimatechange.Thiscreatestheriskthat
servicesprovidedwillbeinadequateorthatprojects
willbecomeobsoleteprematurely.
Forexample,floodprotectionprojectsaredesignedto
protectagainstafloodofsomemagnitudeand
frequency,suchasthe50-yearflood.This
designationmeansthatafloodofacertainlevelhasa
probabilityofoccurringonceevery50years,ora1-in-
50chanceofoccurringinanyyear.Overtime,flood
risksmaychangeduetolanduseand/orclimatic
changes.Afloodlevelthatinthepastwouldhave
beenexpectedtooccuronceina50-yearperiodcould
nowbeexpectedtooccurmorefrequently(e.g.,once
in25years)and,ingeneral,floodswillbeofgreater
magnitude.Thisclearlyhasimplicationsforthedesign
offloodprotectionprojects,infrastructure,water
management,anddevelopmentplanningingeneral.
Inanotherexample,theWorldBankestimatesthat
maximumhurricanelossescanbereducedbyathird
intheCaribbeanbyinvestingjust1%ofastructures
valueinmeasurestoreducevulnerability.
2
AboutaquarteroftheWorldBanksportfoliois
subjecttoasignificantdegreeofriskfromcurrentand
futureclimates.Asof2005,onlyabout2%of
projectsdiscusstheserisksintheprojectdesign
documents.
3
USAIDhasnotconductedacomparable
analysis,butUSAIDinvestshundredsofmillionsof
dollarsinprogramstoimproveagriculture,human
health,urbanprograms,naturalresourcemanagement,
anddisasterresponseandmanagement.Ifwehopeto
promotesustainabledevelopment,itseemswemust
1
(http://honduras.usembassy.gov/english/mission/sections/eco 11.htm).
2
CharlotteBensonGuidanceNote1,ToolsforMainstreamingDisasterRisk
Reduction,ProventionConsortium,
http://www.proventionconsortium.org/themes/default/pdfs/tools for mainstreami
ng GN1.PDF
CLIMATECHANGETERMINOLOGY
Climateiswhatyouexpect,weatheriswhatyouget
WEATHERdescribesatmosphericconditionsata
particularplaceintermsofairtemperature,pressure,
humidity,windspeed,andprecipitation.
CLIMATEisoftendefinedastheweatheraveraged
overtime(typically,30years).
CLIMATEVARIABILITYreferstovariationsinthe
meanstateofclimateonalltemporalandspatial
scalesbeyondthatofindividualweatherevents.
Examplesofclimatevariabilityincludeextended
droughts,floods,andconditionsthatresultfrom
periodicElNioandLaNiaevents.
CLIMATECHANGEreferstoshiftsinthemeanstate
oftheclimateorinitsvariability,persistingforan
extendedperiod(decadesorlonger).Climatechange
maybeduetonaturalchangesortopersistent
anthropogenicchangesinthecompositionofthe
atmosphereorinlanduse.
VULNERABILITYtotheimpactsofclimatechangeisa
functionofexposuretoclimateconditions,sensitivity
tothoseconditions,andthecapacitytoadapttothe
changes.
ADAPTATIONSareactionstakentohelp
communitiesandecosystemsmoderate,copewith,or
takeadvantageofactualorexpectedchangesin
climateconditions.
DefinitionsarebasedonIPCCClimateChange2001and2007
Impacts,AdaptationandVulnerabilityreportsaswellasOECDsreport,
BridgeOverTroubledWatersandanarticlepreparedbyOECD
staff,LevinaandTirpak.
considertherolethatclimateplaysinthesuccessor
failureofdevelopmentefforts.
WHAT IS USAID DOING ABOUT
CLIMATE CHANGE?
USAIDsGlobalClimateChangeTeam,intheBureau
forEconomicGrowth,AgricultureandTrade
(EGAT),hasbeenworkingtoaddressthecausesand
effectsofclimatechangesince1991.USAIDhas
fundedprogramsthathavereducedgrowthinGHG
emissionswhilepromotingenergyefficiency,forest
conservation,biodiversity,andotherdevelopment
3
CleanEnergyandDevelopment: TowardsanInvestmentFramework. Prepared
fortheWorldBank-InternationalMonetaryFundDevelopmentCommittee
meeting, April23,2006,WorldBank,Washington,DC,p.120.
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 2
EXHIBIT 2 - V&A PILOT STUDIES
PILOTSTUDY CLIMATEISSUES ILLUSTRATIVEADAPTATIONS
LaCeiba,Honduras Flooding,stormsurges, Urbandrainagesystem,higherlevees,watershedrestoration,liningtheriver
Coastalcitysupported andsealevelrise bedandbuildingchannelsthroughthecitytodivertfloodwaters,
byUSAIDtodevelop (coastalerosion) constructionofgroins,constructionofbreakwatersoffshore
tourism
Watersupply Constructionofwaterdams,waterconservationanddemandmanagement, Polokwane,SouthAfrica
Rapidlygrowingcity reduction recyclingofwater
supportedbyUSAIDto
developwater
infrastructure
Riseintemperatures Constructionofawatergateforfloodirrigation,increasecrop Zignasso,Mali
Agriculturalvillage andincreasein diversification,useofimprovedsoilmanagementpractices,accessto
supportedbyUSAIDto variabilityof agricultureequipmentandfertilizer
developlivelihoods precipitation
strategy
Flooding,longerwet Shiftstoflood-tolerantcrops,agro-forestry,andaquaculture,constructionof LowerSongkramRiver
Basin, Thailand season weirs,provisionofuplandgrazingareas,newmarketdevelopment,reformed
Areawithdiversified compensationprogramsforfloodloss
fisheries/agricultural
livelihoodsstrategy
goals. Tohelpprojectplannersunderstandand
addresstheclimatesimpactsontheirprojects,the
GCCTeamhasdevelopedthisGuidanceManual.
TheTeamconductedfourpilotstudiestodevelopand
testtheapproachesdescribedhere.Thestudies
focusedondifferentsectorsanddifferent
vulnerabilitiesonthreecontinentswhereUSAID
works.Exhibit2describesthelocationofeachstudy,
thevulnerabilityaddressed,andadaptationoptions
identified.ThisManualprovidesguidanceonhowto
assessvulnerabilitytoclimatevariabilityandchange,
aswellashowtodesignoradaptprojectssothatthey
aremoreresilienttoarangeofclimaticconditions.
TheGCCTeamisavailabletofurtherassistMissions
astheyusetheManual.
CLIMATE IMPACTS AND
DEVELOPMENT
Whileclimatechangeisglobalinnature,potential
changesarenotexpectedtobegloballyuniform;
rather,theremaybedramaticregionaldifferences.
Considerableefforthasbeeninvestedtounderstand
climatechangeattheregionallevel.
Thekeyimpactsofclimatechangeareassociatedwith
durationofextremeclimateeventssuchasdroughts,
floods,andtropicalstorms.Exhibit3,onthenext
page,summarizessomeoftheanticipatedtrendsin
climateandrelatedimpacts.
Climatemayimpactprojectsandprogramsina
varietyofsectorsandoperationalareas.Acursory
reviewoftheU.S.ForeignAssistanceGuidanceon
OperationalPlanssuggeststhatallfiveObjective
Areascouldfeatureprojectsandprogramspotentially
impactedbyclimate(seeExhibit4onp.5).
theclimate-relatedparametersofsealevelrise,changes
Wetseasonricecultivation:IntheLowerSongkramRiverBasin
intheintensity,timingandspatialdistributionof inNortheastThailand,livelihoodsareadaptedtoseasonal
precipitation,changesintemperature(variationand
flooding(IUCN,2006)
meanvalues),andthefrequency,intensity,and
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 3
EXHIBIT 3 - CLIMATE CHANGES AND IMPACTS
LI
J J
andnights
Increasedyieldsin
colder
decreasedyieldsin
increasedinsect
outbreaks
Reducedhuman
decreasedcold
andillnessdueto airqualityincities;
mostareas
Reducedyieldsin
duetoheatstress;
increase
Increasedwater
heat-related
l
Reductionin
areaswithout
onelderl
mostareas
Damagetocrops;
soilerosion,
inabilitytocultivate
landduetowater
loggingofsoils
qualityofsurface
andgroundwater;
contaminationof
skindisease
settlements,
societiesdueto
l
droughtincreases
damageandfailure;
Morewidespread
stressonwater
Increasedincidence
ofextremehigh
tsunamis)
Salinizationof
freshwatersystems
Decreased
freshwater
relatedhealth
Costsofcoastal
costsofland-use
relocation;
populationsand
.
PHENOMENON
AND
DIRECTIONOF
TREND
KELIHOOD
OFFUTURE
TRENDSBASED
ONSRES
SCENARIOS
EXAMPLESOFMA ORPROECTEDIMPACTSBYSECTOR
AGRICULTURE,
FORESTRY
AND
ECOSYSTEMS
WATER
RESOURCES
HUMAN
HEALTH
INDUSTRY
SETTLEMENT
ANDSOCIETY
Overmostland
areas,fewercold
daysandnights,
warmerandmore
frequenthotdays
Virtuallycertain
environments;
warmer
environments;
Effectsonwater
resourcesrelying
onsnowmelt;
effectsonsome
watersupply
mortalityfrom
exposure,
increasedmortality
malaria
Reducedenergy
demandfor
heating;increased
demandfor
cooling;declining
reduceddisruption
totransportdue
tosnow,ice;effects
onwintertourism
Warmspells/heat
waves.Frequency
increasesover
Verylikely
warmerregions
wildfiredanger
demands;water
qualityproblems,
e.g.,algalblooms
Increasedriskof
mortality,especially
fortheelder y,
chronicallysick,
veryyoungand
socially-isolated
qualityoflifefor
peopleinwarm
appropriate
housing;impacts
y,very
youngandpoor
Heavyprecipitation
events.Frequency
increasesover
Verylikely Adverseeffectson
watersupply;water
scarcitymaybe
relieved
Increasedriskof
deaths,injuries,
infectious,
respiratoryand
Disruptionof
commerce,
transportand
flooding;pressures
onurbanandrura
infrastructures;loss
ofproperty
Areaaffectedby Likely Landdegradation,
loweryields/crop
increasedlivestock
deaths;increased
riskofwildfire
supplyor
availability
Increasedriskof
foodandwater
shortage;increased
riskofmalnutrition;
increasedriskof
water-andfood-
bornediseases
Watershortages
forsettlements,
industryand
societies;reduced
hydropower
generation
potentials;potential
forpopulation
migration
sealevel(excludes
Likely
irrigationwater,
estuariesand availabilitydueto
saltwaterintrusion
Increasedriskof
deathsandinjuries
bydrowningin
floods;migration-
effects
protectionversus
potentialfor
movementof
infrastructure
InformationforthisexhibitwastakenfromClimateChangeImpacts,AdaptationandVulnerability-SummaryforPolicyMakersoftheWorking
GroupII(World),IPCC,http://www.ipcc-wg2.org/
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 4
EXHIBIT 4 - CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND
ADAPTATIONS IN USAID OBJECTIVE AREAS
OBJECTIVE IMPACTSOFCLIMATECHANGE ADAPTATIONRESPONSES
AREAS
PeaceandSecurity Extremeweatherevents,includingdroughtsand Mitigateriskofconflictbystrengtheninginstitutional
floods,sealevelrise,andincreasedspreadof
diseaseactasthreatmultipliersthatcanfoster
capacitytorespondtoextremeclimateevents,
promoteresilienceinlivelihoodstrategies,develop
instability,reducelivingstandards,rekindleor earlywarningresponseandmitigationprograms,
engenderinternalortransnationalconflicts,and
undermineongoingsupporttopromotepeace
supportinsuranceandothersafetynetprograms,
supportcapacitytomanageconflictsatlocaland
andsecurity. nationallevel.Climateresiliencecanmitigateriskof
Extremeweatherevents,includingdroughtsand
floods,andsealevelrisecandisrupteffortsto
strengthencivilsocietyandincrease
participationofmarginalizedgroupsin
governance.Governanceisatoolforbuilding
resilience;failuretoimplementandenforce
zoningandenvironmentalregulationsoften
resultsindevelopmentthatincreases
vulnerabilitytoclimaticstresses.
Increasedprevalenceofvector-bornediseases
(e.g.,malaria,dengue),increasedriskof
conflict.
Incorporatedisasterplanningresponseandmitigation
intogovernancesystems;engagevulnerablecivil
societygroupsinparticipatoryforatoaddresstheir
vulnerabilityandidentifyadaptationstoclimate
impacts;examineexistinglawsandregulationsfor
opportunitiestoimprovegovernanceandresilienceto
climatevariables.
Broadscaleimmunization;earlywarningsystemsand
publicinformation(e.g.,highozonedays,heatindex);
GoverningJustlyand
Democratically
InvestinginPeople
malnutritionduetodecreasedfoodavailability increasedaccesstoprimarycareandpreventivecare
andquality,illhealtheffectsofreducedaccess
tocleandrinkingwater,increasedriskofdeath
(e.g.,mosquitonets,broadspectrumdrugs);improved
disasterpreparationandemergencyresponse.
fromextremeweatherevents.
Agriculture Increasedtemperaturesresultin
higheryieldsinsomeareasbutloweryieldsdue
tohigherrateofevapotranspirationandwater
deficits,increasedincidenceandrangeofpests
anddiseases,extremeweathereventscause
flooding,croplossanderosion,droughtresults
inreducedcropyields.
Agriculture Geneticimprovementtoproduce
drought-tolerantcrops,translocationofcropsand
changesincroppingpatterns;afforestationtocondition
soils,improvewaterinfiltration,andprovideshade,
increasedwateruseefficiency,diversificationintonon-
farmactivities,cropinsuranceandmicrocredit
schemes.
EconomicGrowth
Environment Highertemperaturesand
droughtleadtoincreasedincidenceofforest
fires,changesintemperatureandprecipitation
cancausechangesinfloraandfaunarangesand
potentiallossesofbiodiversity,extremeweather
eventscandamagecoastalecosystems,coral
reefsandmangroves.
Environment Seawalls,beachnourishment,regulation
todiscouragedevelopmentincoastalandother
threatenedareas;forestmanagementtoreduce
potentialforforestfires,setasideprotectedareasfor
threatenedfloraandfauna;enforcebanontradein
endangeredspecies;afforestationandreforestation;
communitymanagementofforestsandnatural
resourcestoensuresustainableharvestand
regeneration.
Economic Growth and Trade Damageand
lossestolivelihoodassets,strainingoftraditional
copingsystems,increaseddebtburdenand
long-termpovertyalleviationefforts
undermined,reducedforeigndirectandlocal
investmentinareasvulnerabletoclimate
Economic Growth and Trade Diversificationof
livelihoods,localvalueaddition,improvedaccessto
marketsandfinance(e.g.,microcredit),technology
transfer,useofcarbontradingopportunitiesto
increaserevenuewhileputtinginplacemeasuresthat
reduceemissions.
variabilityandchangeimpacts.
Energy Insomeareas,mayreduceenergy
demandbecauseofhighertemperatures,
decreasedhydropowerpotentialdueto
reducedprecipitation;increasedenergydemand
forairconditioning,damageddamsdueto
flooding.
Increasedneedforpost-disasterreliefand
Energy Enhancedamstructuralparameters,change
sitingofhydropowerprojects,shifttosmall
hydropower;incorporatefuturereducedgeneration
capacityindesign,integratedwaterresourcesand
disastermanagement;improvedenergyefficiency;
widenwaterchannelsandperiodicdrainingof
vulnerablelakes.
Capacitybuildingoflocalcommunitiestoassistinrelief Humanitarian
Assistance
reconstruction,increasedpressureondisaster actions;useofinsurance,bonds,andotherrisk-sharing
managementsystems. measurestofinancereliefandreconstruction;manage
risktoreduceimpact.
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 5
ADAPTATION
AND THE
PROJECT
CYCLE
U
SAIDsdevelopmentactivitiesproceed
throughadesignprocessthatisgenerally
referredtoastheprojectcycle.Theproject
cycleincludesfourbasicsteps:problemdiagnosis,
projectdesign,implementationandevaluation.This
sequenceisviewedasacycleowingtothedynamic
natureofassistance:thecompletionandevaluationof
oneprojectcouldprovidetheimpetusfora
subsequentprojecttobuildonthepreviousprojects
accomplishments,oraddressissuesthatwereabsentin
thepreviousdesignoremergedoverthecourseof
implementation.
Thesix-stepapproachforassessingvulnerabilityand
identifyingandimplementingclimatechange
adaptations(theV&Aapproach)followsa
developmentalpathparalleltothemoregeneral
projectcycle.ThisisnotsurprisingbecausetheV&A
approachcanbeutilizedforastand-aloneprojector
incorporatedintoaseparateprojectorprogram.
Exhibit5illustratesthesimilaritiesbetweenthe
projectcycleandthe6-stepV&Aapproach.
TodemonstratetheflexibilityoftheV&Aapproach
insupportingUSAIDprojectsandprograms,afew
examplesarepresentedbelow.Thisdiscussionis
intendedonlytohelpprojectdesignersseethe
potentialofV&A,notmakeadecisiononwhetherto
addV&Aelements.Thatlatterissueisdiscussedin
thenextsection.
Example1IncorporatingV&Astepsfrom
projectinception (ProblemDiagnosisto
Evaluation)Ideally,climatewillbeconsideredfrom
thebeginning.USAIDprojectdesignersconduct
problemdiagnosisandconsiderclimatevariabilityand
changeaspartofthatexercise.Ifthereareclimate
concerns,projectmodificationswillbeidentifiedand
analyzedaspartofprojectdesign.Project
modificationswouldbeincludedinimplementation
andevaluatedalongwithotherprojectactivities
duringandattheendoftheproject.
Example2Addingadaptationstoanongoing
project(Implementation)Inthecourseofproject
implementation,USAIDandpartnersidentifyaflaw
intheprojectrelatedtoclimatevulnerabilityand
impacts.USAIDandimplementingpartnerswould
conductV&ASteps1through4toselect
modificationstoincorporateintotheprojectandthen
addactivitiesrelatedtothemodificationstothe
implementationorworkplan(Step5).
Example3Capacitybuildingandtraining
program(Implementation)Duringproject
implementation,USAIDspartnersmayrequest
assistancetostrengthencapacitytounderstandand
managewaterornaturalresourcesinthecontextof
climatevulnerability.Thismaybeacasewhere
USAIDdoesnthavetheresourcesorflexibilitytoadd
adaptationstotheexistingprojectbutcanhelp
partnersassessclimateimpactsanddevelop
EXHIBIT 5 - THE PROJECT CYCLE AND THE V&A APPROACH
P
D
I
P
DESIGN
E
ROBLEM
IAGNOSIS
MPLEMENTATION
ROJECT
VALUATION
Step 1: Screen for Step 2: Identify Adaptations Step 5: Implement Step 6: Evaluate Adaptations
Vulnerability Step 3: Conduct Analysis Adaptations
Step 4: Select Course of
Action
6 ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
adaptations.ThismighthelpUSAIDspartnersto
betterarticulatefuturedonorandmulti-lateral
developmentbankassistanceneeds.
Example4Supportforthepreparationof
PovertyReductionStrategyPapers(Problem
DiagnosisandProjectDesign)Inthiscase,USAID
mayprovideadvisorstoassistinthepreparationofa
countrysstrategytoreducepoverty.Suchaproject
providesanopportunitytoexamineclimate
vulnerabilityinthecontextoflivelihoodsandthe
healthofimpoverishedpopulationsanddevelop
adaptationstocomplementeconomic,health,and
educationalpoliciesproposedinthestrategy.
Example5AgriculturalCompetitiveness/Value
ChainAnalysis(EvaluationandProblemDiagnosis)
V&Amightnotberelevanttotheevaluationofan
existingmarketunlesstherehavebeenchronicsupply
breaksduetoclimatevariability;thevaluechain
analysiscouldbeexpandedtoexaminewhether
droughtorfloodingrisksareaccountedforinthe
productionchainandtheoptionsforinsuringagainst
suchrisks.
Ineachexampleabove,theV&Aapproachisusedin
adifferentway.V&Acanbeincorporatedatanystage
oftheprojectcycleandtailoredtomeetthespecific
needsoftheproject.Thecompletesix-stepV&A
approachismosteasilyincorporatedintoUSAID
projectsattheinitialstageoftheprojectcyclebutis
flexibleenoughtobeappliedatdifferentstagesofthe
projectcycleandusingonlythoseV&Astepsrequired
bytheproject.
Thairesidentswalkonafloodedstreetinthe
SS/mk.
ChonBuriprovince,about81km(50miles)east
ofBangkok,September14,2005. Theweather
bureauwarnedthatthedepressionfromtheeast
coastofVietnamcouldcausefloodinginsome
areasofThailand.REUTERS/SukreeSukplang
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 7
FAQS: INCORPORATING V&A INTO
PROJECT DESIGNS
Wehavedevelopedalistofquestionsandanswersthatmightbeaskedbyprojectdesignersand
managersaboutclimatechangeandaddingV&Aelementstoneworongoingprojects.
Question: I am not a climatologist or atmospheric scientist. Do I need to understand
the science of climate change to include V&A in my project?
Answer: Youdontneedtobeaclimateexpert,butyoudoneedtheinformationthatisavailable
oncurrentandfutureclimatechange,andyouneedtounderstandhowitappliestoyourproject.
Youshouldalsounderstandsomeoftheuncertaintiessurroundingclimatechange.Muchofthe
analysisfromregional-levelclimatechangemodelshasbeensummarizedandprovidedbya
numberofinternationalorganizations.TheCD-ROMprovidedwiththeManualincludesalistof
referencematerials.Inaddition,theGlobalClimateChangeTeamisdevelopingamappingtool
thatwillprovideeasyaccesstoinformationonhistoricalclimatedataandfutureclimatechange
scenariosforacountryorregion.TheGCCTeamcanprovidesupportandputyouintouchwith
additionalexpertsinthefield.
Question: Adapting to climate change sounds like a formidable challenge. Does
USAID have experience in developing and implementing adaptations?
Answer: USAIDprojectplannersalreadyhavemanyoftheskillsnecessaryforadapting;what
theylackisinformation.Plannersalreadymakedecisionsdespiteuncertainty.Agricultureprojects
aredesignedwithcertainassumptionsabouttemperature,weathervariability,soils,andmarkets
forcrops.Healthprojectsaredesignedwithassumptionsaboutdiseases,diseasevectors,and
humanbehavior.Infrastructureprojectsanddisastermitigationprojectsaredesignedwith
assumptionsabouttheweather,population,andfloodplains.Inmanydevelopingcountries,
peoplealreadyhaveadaptedtoflood-droughtcyclesandtoextremeweathereventsanddisasters.
Muchoftheexperienceofaddressingcurrentclimatevariabilitycanbeappliedtolonger-term
climateimpacts.USAIDsGCCTeamhasledfourpilotstudiesthatinformedthedevelopmentof
thisManual.ThisManual,andadditionalresourcesfoundontheCD-ROM,provide
informationaboutclimatevariabilityandchangetodevelopmentpractitionersalreadyaccustomed
todealingwithuncertainty.
Inaddition,itisimportanttorememberthatvulnerabilitytoclimaterisksisinpartafunctionof
theresilienceoftheeconomy.USAIDsworkalreadyhelpsreducevulnerabilitytoclimate
variabilityandchangebypromotingeconomicgrowthanddiversification.
Question: Once I start with V&A screening at Step 1, do I have to follow all six steps?
Answer:No.Thesix-stepprocessisflexibleinthatitcanbestoppedatanypoint.IfStep1
screeningdoesnotresultinacompellingcaseforaddingV&Aelements,theprocessshouldstop.
Evenifclimatevulnerabilityisimportant,itmaynotbeinthemanageableinterestsofUSAIDto
addV&Aelementsbecauseofinformationgaps,resourceandtimeconstraints,oralackof
commitmentamongimplementingpartners.Anotherlogicalstoppingpointisattheconclusionof
Step4.Theconsultationprocessonadaptationsmightresultinasetofadaptation
recommendations(e.g.,investmentininfrastructure)thatareoutsidethescopeoftheUSAID
project.
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 8
TheremayalsobesituationswhereonlyoneorafewstepsintheV&Aprocessaretobefollowed.
Forexample,theprojectsfocusmightbetoevaluateacurrentpolicy,program,orprojectand
determineifitseffectivenessisunderminedbyclimatevariability,ortoholdstakeholder
workshopsonassessingvulnerabilitytocurrentdroughtsandfloods.Or,alternatively,acapacity
buildingprojectmightrequireUSAIDtoprovideassistanceindevelopingskillstoconduct
assessmentsofadaptationoptions.
Question: What if my project is underway? Can I add V&A elements to an ongoing project?
Answer: USAIDmaywanttoconsideraddingnewcomponentstoanongoingproject.The
impetusmightcomefromamid-projectrevieworarisebecauseofanextremeweatherevent
duringwhichtheprojectdidnotperformeffectively.
Question: How much will it cost to add V&A elements?
Answer: Inweighingthecost,itisimportanttorecognizethattheremaybeacosttoignoringthe
impactsofclimatechange;aprojectmaynotperformasexpected,reducingthereturnon
investmentandthebenefittothetargetcommunity.Also,onlyconsiderthemarginalcostof
conductingtheanalysisandthecostofanymodificationstoprojectdesign;thecoreprojectwould
takeplaceregardlessofwhetherclimateimpactsareaddressed.
CostdependsonanumberoffactorsincludingthenumberofstepsoftheV&Aapproachthat
willbeundertaken;thegeographicalscaleoftheproject;howdetailedtheinformationonclimate
variabilityorchangeneedstobe;andtheavailabilityofdataandanalyses.InpreviousV&Acase
studies,Step1andStep2involvedminimalcosts,similartothecostsoforganizingand
conductinganinceptionmeetingandseriesofstakeholdermeetings.Costwillbemorevariableat
Steps3,5and6.Forstep3,impactanalysiscanbequitecostlyifitinvolvesoriginalresearch,
whilecostsforSteps5and6dependonthetypesandnumbersofadaptationsselectedandthe
activitiesneededtosupportimplementation.TheGCCteamisdevelopingabetterunderstanding
ofthecostandthelevelofinvolvementrequiredofdifferentpartnersasweconductadditional
studiesusingthisManual.Aswelearnfromnewprojects,weaimtolowerthecostandsimplify
theprocess.
Question: How will adaptation help me to better promote development goals?
Answer: AttentiontoV&Awillhelpavoiduncertainreductionsinprojecteffectivenessthatcan
resultfromextremeweathereventsandchangesinaverageconditions.Byimprovingresilienceand
bettercontingencyplanning,climate-relatedimpactscanbebetterabsorbedbyimplementing
partners.Furthermore,theincorporationofV&Aconsiderationsinprojectdesigncaninformand
potentiallyenhanceyourassessmentofpotentialenvironmentalconsequencesofUSAIDfunded-
activities,asperTitle22,CFRPart216(EnvironmentalProcedures).
Question: How can I learn more?
Answer: TheGlobalClimateChangeTeaminUSAID/EGATcanprovideresources,answer
questions,helpconnectmissionswithregionalexperts,andinsomecases,assistmissionswiththe
screeningofclimate-relatedvulnerabilityandimpactsorthedesignofV&Aelementsinnewor
ongoingprojects.QuestionsfortheGCCTeamshouldbedirectedto:JohnFurlow
(jfurlow@usaid.gov);Telephone:202-712-5274.
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 9
INTEGRATING
V&A ELEMENTS
INTO PROJECTS
T
hissectiondescribesthesix-stepapproachfor
incorporatingV&Aelementsintoproject
designs,asillustratedpreviouslyinExhibit5
andExhibit6(onthenextpage).Example1
(IncorporatingV&AStepsfromProjectInception),
theidealexampleandtheonlyonethatinvolvesallsix
steps,willbeusedheretohelpillustratethissix-step
approach.Asnotedearlier,fourV&Apilotstudies
4
wereundertakentotestanddemonstratetheV&A
methodologyduringthepreparationofthisManual
andexamplesaredrawnfromthesestudiesto
illustrateindividualstepsandhighlighttheflexibility
oftheV&Aapproach.Finalreportsand
supplementarydocumentsforthefourpilotstudies
areavailableonthesupplementaryCD-ROM
providedinthepocketinsidethebackcoverofthe
Manual.
5
STEP 1: SCREEN FOR
VULNERABILITY
Step1involvesscreeningacurrentorproposed
projectdesigntodetermineifitmightbeaffectedby
climatevariabilityorclimatechange.Evenifclimate
issuesareimportant,USAIDmustalsodetermineifit
iswithinitsmanageableinterests,capacity,orresource
constraintstoinvestinadditionalV&Asteps.When
makingthisdecision,pleasebearinmindthatthere
maybecoststonotmodifyingtheproject,ifclimate
changereducesprojectperformance.Intheory,sucha
go/no-godecisioncanbetakenatanystepinthe
V&Aapproach.However,thego/no-godecisionis
describedwithStep1asitisatthispoint(andatStep
4)thatsuchadecisionismostlikelytobemade.
SCREENING OF CLIMATE IMPACTS AND
RELEVANCE TO THE PROPOSED
PROJECT
Thescreeningofclimateimpactsdetermineshow
climaterelatestotheproposeddevelopmentprojector
program.Thisentailsatwo-partassessmentfirst,
whatdotheclimatedataandmodelstellusabout
changesinclimatevariabilityandclimatechangein
the geographicalareacoveredbytheproject;and
second,howwillthesepotentialchangesinclimate
impacttherelevantsectorsinthedevelopment
project.Somedevelopmentsectorsaremoreclimate
sensitivethanothers.Projectsinthefollowingareas
maybeparticularlysensitive:agriculture,water
resources,naturalresourcesmanagement(forestry,
fisheries,landusemanagement),construction,health,
energy,andcoastaldevelopmentandmanagement.
Ideally,Step1involvesanextensivereviewofcurrent
climatedata,recentclimatetrends,andclimate
scenarios,preferablyanalyzedatthesamegeographic
scaleastheproposedproject.However,thetimeand
resourcesthataUSAIDMissioncandevotetothe
assessmentofclimatechangeareoftenlimited.Asa
result,missionswilllikelyneedtorelyonreadily
availableinformationandexpertopiniontoassess
GCCTEAMSCREENINGASSISTANCE
TheCD-ROMprovidedwiththeGuidanceManual
includesanumberofsourcedocumentsforclimate
informationandimpactanalysis.
GCCTeamstaffisavailabletoassistMissionsin
conductingthescreeningstep,ifrequested.
TheGCCTeamisdevelopingamappingtool
designedtoassistMissionsinscreeningclimate
impacts.Thetoolsstart-upwindowwillbeaworld
mapfromwhichMissionswillbeabletoclickon
theircountry/regiononthemaptoaccessdataand
analysistailoredtotheirgeographicalareaincluding:
o Historicalclimatedataandsourcesof
climatedata;
o Regionalclimatechangemodelsand
modelingscenariosforthemajorclimate
parameters;
o Informationonclimatevariability/climate
changeimpactstailoredtotheregionand
relevantdevelopmentsectors.
4
USAIDcontractedwithStratusConsultingInc.topreparethepilot
studiesinHonduras,Mali,andSouthAfricaandwithInternational
ResourcesGrouptopreparethepilotstudyinThailand.
5
TheInternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopmenthasdevelopeda
toolcalledCRiSTAL(Community-basedRiskScreeningTool Adaptation
&Livelihoods)thatmayhelpyouorganizeinformationaboutyourproject.
ThetoolrunsinExcelandcanbedownloadedat:
http://www.iisd.org/security/es/resilience/climate_phase2.asp
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 10
potentialchangesinclimateparametersandclimate morefrequentlyinthefuture.Howmightyoualter
impacts. TheGCCTeamoffersarangeofassistance yourplans?
optionstoaidUSAIDMissionsinscreeningclimate
impacts(seeboxonGCCTeamScreeningAssistance).
Inscreeningclimateimpacts,tworulesofthumbare
Historicalrecordsmayserveasaproxyforprojections
usefulinmakingthedetermination:
offuturechangeifsomethinghashappenedbefore,
Rule1:Ifaprojectissensitivetoclimatevariability,
itcouldhappenagain. Forexample,inthinking
itislikelytobesensitivetoclimatechange.
aboutvulnerabilitytodrought,youmightweighthe
impactofarepetitionoftheworstdroughtonrecord
Achangeinclimatewillchangeclimatevariability.
That,inturn,willaffectanyprojectthatisalready
EXHIBIT 6 - STEPS TO INCORPORATE CLIMATE CHANGE INTO PROJECT PLANNING
Step 1:
Step 2 6
Implementation
and Evaluation
Examine the
Step 4 Select course of action Meet with
Evaluate the
Conduct Analysis
Evaluation
No
No
Identify Adaptations
Implementation Plan
Select Course of
Changes
Justified?
Is project sensitive
to climate?
No Further
Action Needed
No Further
Action Needed
PROCESS DEFINITIONS
Screen for
Vulnerability
Step 1 Screen for Vulnerability Vulnerability
Screening is a preliminary assessment of whether
climate variability or change could compromise the
integrity, effectiveness, or longevity of a project within
the planning horizon for the project.
Analysis,
Step 2 Identify adaptations Work with
stakeholders to identify alternative designs or
management practices that may enable them to better
cope with climate variability and change. The emphasis
should be on finding measures that increase resilience
to climate change, but still make sense under the
current climate.
Step 3 Conduct analysis
consequences of climate variability and change as well
as the effectiveness, costs, and feasibility of adaptations
that can reduce vulnerability to climate variability and
change.
stakeholders to review results of the analysis.
Determine if changes in a current project design are
required or if a proposed project should feature new
adaptations.
Step 5 Implement adaptations Prepare an
implementation plan identifying next steps, responsible
staff and organizations, timeline, and resource needs
required to incorporate the climate change adaptations
into the project.
Step 6 Evaluate adaptations
implementation of adaptations and their effectiveness.
Since many adaptations may be due to infrequent,
extreme events or long-term climate change, it may be
difficult to evaluate effectiveness in a relatively short
time period following implementation. But, at a
minimum, an evaluation can be done to see if the
adaptations were put in place and whether there were
problems or excessive costs associated with them.
STEP 3
STEP 6
Yes
Yes
STEP 2
STEP 5
STEP 4
Action Are
STEP 1
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 11
sensitivetoclimatevariability.Butoneshouldnot
stopatjustexaminingrisksfromclimatevariability.
Rule2:Long-termclimatechangescanintroduce
otherriskstoprojects.
Climatechangeinvolvesnotonlychangesinextreme
weatherandpatternsofwetanddry,hotandcool
periods,butalsochangestoaverageclimate.That
meansthatsystemsandactivitiesthatareadaptedto
anaverageclimatecanbeaffected.Cropsaregrownin
particularlocationsbecausetherangeoftemperatures
andprecipitationisrightforthosecrops.Natural
vegetation,suchasforestsorgrasslands,existsin
certainlocationsbecausetheclimateisfavorablefor
particularspecies.Coastaldevelopmentiscloseto
hightidebecauselandabovehightideisdry,yetclose
enoughtotheoceantoallowaccess.Climatechange
isalteringaverageclimateconditionsandsealevels,
meaningthatcertainactivitiesmayhavetobemoved
tootherlocationsormodifiedinotherways.
Thescreeningprocessforassessingclimateimpacts
mightproceedasfollows:
1. Characterizecurrentclimatevariabilityincluding
short-termevents(extremeweatherevents)andlong-
termevents(trendsinseasonalandannualvariations)
inthegeographicalarea.Sourcesmayinclude
WORKINGWITHCLIMATEDATA
historicalweatherrecords(ifavailable),stakeholder
input,andclimatechangeprojections.
2. Fortherelevantdevelopmentsectorsandplanned
projectorprogramactivities,determinewhichofthese
sectorsoractivitiesisorwouldlikelybeimpactedby
thevarioustypesofshort-orlong-termclimate
variabilityevents(seeRules1and2).
Itwouldbeusefultodescribethenatureoftheimpact
andassessthemagnitude,evenifonlyinrelative(e.g.,
high,medium,orlow)orqualitativeterms.
3. Identifymaladaptations(projectdesignsthatcreate
orexacerbateaproblem)intherelevantdevelopment
sectorsandcurrentandplannedprojectsthatincrease
exposuretoclimate-relatedhazards.Anextreme
exampleofamaladaptationcomesfromHonduras:in
anefforttoprotecthousesfromfloodingbytheRio-
CangrejalRiver,aleveewasbuilttocontain
floodwaters. However,theconstructionofthelevee
createdincentivesforpeopletolocatetheirhomesin
thefloodplainimmediatelyinsidethelevee,
increasingthenumberofpeopleatriskforflooding.
4. Identifycurrentorproposedadaptationstrategies
andpoliciesinthesectorsofinterest.Areadaptation
policiesandstrategiesinplacetoaddresscurrent
climateissuessuchasextremeeventsorvariability?Is
Themostdifficultpartofadaptingtoclimatechangewillbegatheringdataaboutclimatechangeforaspecific
locationandinterpretingthatdatatounderstandpossibleimpactsonyourproject.Climatechangemodels,known
asGeneralCirculationModelsorGCMs,aremathematicalmodelsofhowtheearthsclimatesystemworks. They
areamongthemostcomplicatedmodelsevermade,andoneofthegreatestchallengesformodelersisthatnoone
fullyunderstandshowtheclimatesystemworks,muchlesshowtodescribeitinamodel.
Totestthemodelsaccuracy,modelersrunthemtoseehowwelltheycanpredictthepresent. Thatis,datafrom
thepastareinputintothemodelanditisruntorepresentdifferentclimatevariablesforthe20thcenturyorsome
partofit. Themodelsoutputsarethencomparedtoobservationsfromthesametimeperiod,andthewaythe
modeltreatscertainvariablesisadjusted,improvingitsabilitytomatchobservations. Thecurrentmodelsarevery
goodatpredictingcurrenttemperatures,andthereisalmostuniversalconsensus(amongmodelsandexperts)that
mostoftheworldwillgetwarmerinthecomingdecades. Thisisconsistentwithourunderstandingofhowthe
atmospherefunctionsandhowourbehaviorcontributestogreenhousegasconcentrationsintheatmosphere.
Themodelsarenotasaccurateatpredictingcurrentorfutureprecipitation. Whileitisacceptedthatawarmer
atmospherewillholdmoremoisture,modelsdisagreeonhowthecycleofevaporationandprecipitationwill
change.Ingeneral,itisexpectedthataverageprecipitationwillincreaseworldwide,butitwillprobablyfallinfewer,
moreintenseevents. Thereisnoconsensusonhowthegeographicdistributionofprecipitationwillchange. For
manylocationsaroundtheworld,onemodelmayprojectanincreaseinrainfall,whileanotherprojectsadecrease.
Obviously,thismakesplanningmoredifficult.
Toaddtothisdifficulty,theGCMsprovideprojectionsatacoarsegeographicscale,ontheorderofhundredsof
squarekilometers.Developmentprojectstendtotakeplaceatmuchsmallerscalesinasinglewatershedor
catchment,forexample.OutputsfromGCMsaredownscaledtoprovideprojectionsatsmallergeographicscales.
TheknowledgeofMissionexpertsanddevelopmentpartnerswillbeimportantininterpretingandapplyingthe
climatechangeinformationtoaparticularlocationorsector.
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 12
thereanational/localcommitmenttounderstand
climate-relatedrisksanddevelopadaptationstrategies?
5. Discussthescreeningresultswithimplementing
partnersandstakeholderstodetermineifthereare
gapsintheanalysis.
6. Gaugethelevelofconcernamongimplementing
partnersandstakeholdersabouttheimpactsofclimate
variabilityandclimatechange.
SHOULD VULNERABILITY &
ADAPTATION BE INCORPORATED INTO
THE PROJECT DESIGN?
IftheanalysisinStep1indicatesthatclimateimpacts
arelikelytoaffectthesectorsand/oractivities
envisionedintheproposeddevelopmentprojector
program,additionalfactorsrelatedtoUSAIDs
manageableinterestsshouldbeconsideredbefore
committingtoadditionalstepsintheV&Aapproach.
ThefactorsthatMissionstaffmightconsiderin
makingthisdeterminationareorganizedbelowintoa
checklist(seeExhibit7)dividedintothreegroupsof
questions:1)project/programparameters;2)V&A
content;and3)localcontextforadaptation.
Inadditiontocollectinginformationtoassessthese
factors,USAIDMissionstaffwillneedtodecidehow
toevaluatetheinformationandranktheimportance
ofindividualfactors.Thisdeterminationisexpectedto
complywithinternalproceduresatthemissionfor
promotinganewprogramorproject.
BEST PRACTICES FOR A PARTICIPATORY
APPROACH
OnceUSAIDdecidestoincorporateV&Aelements
intoprojectdesignandproceedtoStep2,itis
expectedthatUSAIDwillworkmorecloselywith
implementingpartners,decisionmakersand
stakeholders.
InthecourseofconductingtheV&Apilotstudies,
theprojectteamsusedahighlyparticipatoryprocess
andworkedcloselywithlocalandnationaldecision-
makersandstakeholders.Someofthebestpractices
relatedtotheuseofaparticipatoryprocessin
conductingV&Aanalysesaresummarizedin
Exhibit8onthenextpage.
STEP 2: IDENTIFY ADAPTATION
OPTIONS
Step2istoidentifyoptionsformodifyingtheproject
inresponsetovulnerabilitiesidentifiedinStep1.Step
2involvescompilinganinitiallistofadaptation
optionsandapplyingaprocessmutuallyagreedupon
byUSAID,implementingpartnersandstakeholders
toreview,refineandfinalizethelistofadaptations
priortoanalysisandranking.Asuggestedstructurefor
Step2isprovidedbelow.However,asillustratedinthe
exhibitbelow,thereareanumberofwaysthatStep2
canbeorganizedandconducted.
EXHIBIT 7 - CHECKLIST: SHOULD V&A BE ADDED?
J

Whatistheproposedlengthof
theproject?

designandimplementationamong

theproject?

theimplementationofadaptations?

adaptedfromotherstudiesto
whatcost?

adapting?
USAIDPROECT/PROGRAM
PARAMETERS
V&ACONTENT CONTEXTFORADAPTATIONS
Isthereexperiencewith
adaptationsinthecountry/region?
Istheresupportforadaptation
decision-makersandstakeholders?
Whatistheproposedbudgetof Havepreliminaryadaptation
policiesandstrategiesalreadybeen
identified?
Arethereknownlegal,political,
institutional,orfinancialbarriersto
Canmodels,toolsorpracticesbe
supportthevulnerabilityand
adaptationassessments?Andat
Aretherelocalresourcesavailable
tosustainadaptationbeyondthe
lifeoftheUSAIDproject?
Istherelikelytobeacosttonot
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 13
COMPILE ADAPTATIONS Preparatoryactivities:
Indevelopingalistofadaptationoptions,anumber
Reviewandextractinformationonclimate
ofapproachesandinformationsourcesmightbe
impactsandprojectvulnerabilitiesdevelopedin
considered,dependingonresourcesandavailabilityof
Step1;
GCCexpertsforconsultation.Asuggestedprocess
forcompilingalistofadaptationsisdividedinto Reviewpreviousandcurrentprogramsand
preparatoryandparticipatoryactivities.
projectsconductedbyUSAIDandotherdonors
todetermineifadaptationswereidentified,
assessed,orimplemented;
EXHIBIT 8 - PARTICIPATORY PROCESS BEST PRACTICES
PARTICIPANTS
Determinethetypesofstakeholderswhoshouldbecomeinvolvedintheanalysis,reviewanddecision-makingprocess.
Forexample,foranagriculturalproject,stakeholdersmightincludelocalfarmers,otherparticipantsinthevaluechain,
governmentministriesandextensionservices.Forawaterproject,stakeholdersmightincludemunicipalgovernment
officialsandcustomers. Thelocalstakeholderschosenshouldhaveakeeninterestintheprojectunderconsideration
andhowitwillimpacttheirlivelihoods.
Determinethetypesofnationalandinternationalexpertswhohavevaluableexpertiseintheprojectareaandin
assessingclimateimpactsandadaptations. Thesecouldincludepeoplefromlocaluniversitiesandagriculturalcolleges,
localandfederalgovernmentalagencies,internationalresearchorganizationsanduniversities,etc.
DetermineiftheV&Aworkwillbecoordinatedwithotherdonors thiscouldprovideanopportunitytoleverage
resourcesandincreasethepotentialimpactoftheproject.
DIALOGUE
Organizestakeholderdiscussionsonimpactsandadaptations willthesebefacilitatedbyUSAIDsimplementing
partner;byalocaleducationalorresearchinstitutionorNGO;orbythegovernment?
Understandthepreferredmethodsformakingdecisionsonadaptationinthepartnercountry eachcountrywillhave
establishedproceduresformakingdecisions,inpartdependingonthetype(s)ofadaptationtobeconsidered.
Proceduresforintroducingadaptationpoliciesatthenationallevelcanbeexpectedtodifferfromlocaladaptations.
COMMUNICATIONS
Establishcommunicationprotocolswithimplementingpartnersandcounterpartscoveringthedisseminationof
informationincludingmechanisms(Websites,pressreleasestothemedia,reports,publicmeetings,workshops,etc.)and
assignmentofroles.
EXHIBIT 9 - IDENTIFYING ADAPTATIONS: V&A PILOT STUDY APPROACHES
La Ceiba, Honduras
Municipal authorities asked the project team to
identify, analyze, and recommend adaptation
options in the areas of coastal development,
urban drainage, and upstream land management.
The climate impact analysis and the assessment of
adaptation options were combined.
Lower Songkram River Basin,Thailand
The project team developed climate scenarios
and conducted inundation impact analysis in
advance of stakeholder meetings. Local
stakeholders elaborated and assessed adaptations
at three implementation levels: farmer/fisher,
community, and government. Local
representatives of National Ministries also
selected adaptations.
Zignasso, Mali
Adaptations were identified by participants in the
first Stakeholder Workshop. Stakeholders
identified adaptations involving earlier planting,
planting with early maturing varieties, training in
soil management, and infrastructure to improve
irrigation.
Polokwane, South Africa
Adaptations were identified by participants in the
first Stakeholder Workshop. They recommended
adaptations in these categories: 1) Six in demand
management; 2) Five in technical water resources
management; and 3) Seven in policy.
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 14
Solicitadvicefromand/orreviewrecentreports
anddocumentspreparedbyexpertsinclimate
change,climateadaptationandenvironmental
scienceandpolicythatwillhaveanintimate
knowledgeofthescientificunderpinningsofthe
problemandwilllikelyprovidecredible
suggestionsbasedonsoundscience;
Reviewcountrystrategiesandpoliciesthatpertain
toadaptations.
Participatoryactivities:
Holdmeetingswithdecision-makersand
stakeholderstodiscussclimateimpactsand
adaptationoptions.Thesemayinvolveworkshops,
smallerfocusgroupinterviewsorfieldinterviews.
USAIDanditsimplementingpartnersshouldbe
preparedtoprovideinformationabouttheproject
orprogramandsharecurrentanalysisonthe
potentialimpactsofclimatechangeandvariability.
Consultwithnationalandinternationalexpertson
climatechangeadaptations.Thelistofadaptations
developedfromstakeholdermeetingsshouldbe
compiledandsharedwithexpertstoobtaintheir
helpinreviewingstakeholderadaptationsandto
identifygapsinthelist.Expertsmayalsobeable
toshareinformationonadaptationassessments
conductedinothercountriesorregionsthatcould
begermanetoStep3.
HOLD STAKEHOLDER MEETINGS TO
DISCUSS AND FINALIZE THE
ADAPTATIONS LIST
Oncethelistofadaptationoptionshasbeencompiled
andsubjectedtosomepreliminaryanalysisand
screening,asecondsetofmeetingsisrecommendedto
facilitatediscussionsamongstakeholderstofinalizethe
listofadaptationoptions.Itislikelythattheinitiallist
ofoptionswillbeexcessivelylongandpossibly
difficulttoanalyzeinStep3.Meetingswith
stakeholdersanddecision-makerscanbeusefulin
establishingaprocessforassessingthecurrentlistof
optionsandreducingthenumberofoptions.Ineffect,
theprocessofshorteningthelistfunctionsasapre-
assessmentoftheadaptationoptionsandwillhelpto
identifycandidatecriteriathatcanbeappliedinthe
Step3analysis.Theprocessforfinalizingthe
adaptationlistmightinclude:
Presentthefullslateofadaptationoptionsto
stakeholders.
Establishaprocessandcriteriaforscreening
adaptationoptions.
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
Assiststakeholdersindevelopinginformationon
optionstoconductthescreeningexercise.
Groupoptionsbyactivitytypeandcharacterize
themassubstitutes(either/or),complementsto
otheradaptationoptions,orbundleinto
adaptationstrategies(seeboxbelow).
Eliminateoptionsthatarenottechnicallyor
technologicallyfeasibletoimplementinthe
projectorprogramatthepresenttime.
Facilitateaselectionprocesstoallowdecision-
makersandstakeholderstofinalizetheadaptations
list.
Exhibit10onthenextpagesummarizestherangeof
adaptationoptionsthatwereidentifiedinthefour
V&Apilotstudies.
STEP 3: CONDUCT ANALYSIS
ThepurposeofthisstepisforUSAID,its
implementingpartners,stakeholdersandexpertsto
evaluateeachoftheadaptationoptionsincludedon
thefinallistinStep2.Optionsshouldbeevaluated
fortheireffectivenessatbuildingresiliencetoclimatic
changesidentifiedinStep1.Thisanalysisalsomust
giveconsiderationtotheprojectstimeframeand
budgetaswellastotheanalyticalrequirementsfor
implementingdifferentadaptationoptions.
DEFINE BASELINE OF PERFORMANCE
Theonlyreasontomodifyprojectplansistoimprove
projectperformance.Therefore,itisusefultoassess
howtheoriginalprojectisexpectedtoperformunder
currentandprojectedconditions,andcomparethat
performancewiththeoptionsidentifiedinStep2.
Forexample,inourprojectinPolokwane,South
Africa,thewaterutilitywasconsideringconstructinga
damandreservoirtoaugmentwatersupplies.
However,someoftheclimatechangeprojections
suggestedthatrainfallwilldeclineinthefuture,
limitingtheusefulnessofadam. Stakeholders
suggestedconsideringotheroptions,suchasdemand
sidemanagement,untilthereisbetterevidencethat
futurerainfallwillbeadequatetofillareservoir.
Considerationsindevelopingthisperformance
baselineinclude:
Howwouldtheoriginalprojectperformunder
currentorexpectedconditions?Isitwell-suited,
givenstakeholderexperiencewiththelocal
climate?
15
Howwouldthemodified(climate-adapted) theclimateprojectionsdevelopedinStep1to
projectoptionsperformundercurrentorexpected identifyfutureconditions.)
conditions. Isitatleastaswell-suitedtolocal
conditions?
Howwouldthemodifiedoptionsperformunder
expectedfutureconditions?
Howwouldtheoriginalprojectperformunder
expectedfutureconditions?(Again,drawfrom
EXHIBIT 10 - ADAPTATION OPTIONS IDENTIFIED FOR THE V&A PILOT STUDIES
HONDURAS MALI SOUTHAFRICA THAILAND
Constructionofgroins, Constructionofwater Recycling urban Waterresource
Infrastructure
seawalls,breakwaters,
dams,drainagesystems
Sandpumping,river
dredging,liningofriver
channel
Improveddesignand
gate
Developmentoffood
storagefacilities
Installrocklinesto
capturerunoff
Reuse mining
Builddam
Expandwellfields
development
Constructionofweirs
higherlevees
Installationof
collectors,stormgates
andpumps
Improveenvironmental
education
Buildstaffcapacityand
infrastructureto
implementflood
warningsystem
Buildknowledgeand
capacitytounderstand
agriculturalproduction
stressors
Buildcapacityin
weatherforecasting
Drought/risk
management
Hydro-climatic
network/monitoring
Buildknowledgeand
capacityinadaptation
Encourage
conservation
Strengthencommodity
valuechainsandfind
CapacityBuilding
Designandimplement
zoningregulationsand
buildingcodes
Limitdeforestation
Adoptionoflocal
policyandordinance
initiatives
Facilitateaccessto
credit
Intersectoral
reallocation
Reallocationof
reservoiryield
Waterconservation
anddemand
management(including
meteringandprice
structure)
newmarkets
Compensationfor
flooddamages
Regulationstocontrol
unsustainablefishery
practice
Developresource
managementplansat
thecommunitylevel
Policy
Constructionofhouses Incorporationofcrop
Conjunctiveuse
Rainwaterharvesting Shifttoflood-tolerant
onstilts residuesintosoiland cropsandcrop
Incorporationofrisk
ridgetillage varieties
assessmentand Useofshort-rotation Planteucalyptusand
mitigationinformation andheattolerantrice pararubbertrees
NewPractices
intomicro-watershed
managementplans
andmaize
Intercroppingandcrop
rotation(toaddress
pests)
Developaquaculture
industry
Increaselivestock
rearinginupperlands
Seedpriming(e.g.,
soaking)priorto
planting
Plantingofagroforestry
species
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 16
CREATE ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT EXHIBIT 11 - CRITERIA FOR ANALYZING
MATRIX
ADAPTATIONS
Avarietyoffactorsorcriteriacanbeusedinthe
analysis.Anillustrativelistoffactorsisprovidedbelow
innoparticularorderofimportance.Consultations
withdecision-makersandstakeholderswillbeuseful
inselectingthefinalsetoffactorsandassigning
weightorlevelofimportancetoeachofthem:
Costcosttoimplementadaptationoptions;cost
ofnotmodifyingtheproject
Effectivenesseffectivenessofadaptationoptions
asasolutiontoproblemsarisingfromclimate
variabilityandclimatechange(benefits,damages
mitigated,costsavoided,andlivessavedas
differentspecificationsofeffectiveness)
PILOT
STUDY
E
f
f
e
c
t
v
e
n
e
s
s
C
o
s
t
F
e
a
s
b
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y
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c
a
/
C
u
t
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r
a
F
e
a
s
b
t
y
A
s
s
s
t
a
n
c
e
R
e
q
u
r
e
m
e
n
t
s
A
d
e
q
u
a
c
y

f
o
r

C
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r
r
e
n
t

C
m
a
t
e
S
p
e
e
d

o
f
I
m
p
e
m
e
n
t
a
t
o
n
C
o
n
s
s
t
e
n
c
y
w
t
h

S
t
a
t
e

P
o
c
y

La Ceiba,
Honduras

Zignasso,
Mali

Polokwane,
South Africa

Songkram
River,
Thailand

Inconductingtheassessmentofadaptations,the
Easeofimplementationincludesissuessuchas
followingissuesshouldbegivenconsideration:
barrierstoimplementationandtheneedtoadjust
otherpoliciestoaccommodatetheadaptation Foreachproposedadaptationtobeassessed,each
option factorshouldbeevaluatedonapre-determined
scalethatisappropriateforthefactor.For
AcceptabilitytolocalstakeholdersinStep2all
example,factorssuchascost,stakeholdersupport,
adaptationswouldhavebeenidentifiedasfeasible
andexpertsendorsementcanberatedfortheir
butnotallwillbeequallyattractivetoall
favorabilityaslow(1),medium(2),high(3)or
stakeholdersforpolitical,economic,social,or
veryhigh(4).Forfactorssuchaseffectiveness,a
culturalreasons
moredetailedassessmentscalemayberequired.
AcceptabilitytoUSAIDanyoptionsthat
USAIDisunwillingtosupportshouldbe
identifiedsoitiscleartostakeholdersthatthose
optionswillnotbepursuedinthiscontext
Thesystemforratingfactorsshouldbeagreed
uponinadvancewithdecision-makersand
stakeholders.
Evenifapartnerrequirestheassessmenttobe
Endorsementbyexpertsinsomecountries,
organizedinaparticularformatpursuantto
decision-makerswillpartlybasetheirselectionon
agencyproceduresorregulations,itmightbe
consistencyofproposedadaptationoptionswith
beneficialalsotoorganizetheresultsofthe
internationalbestpractices
adaptationanalysisinmatrixformtofacilitate
comparisonandselectionofadaptations.This
Timeframeforimplementingtheadaptation approachisbeneficialinthatitiseffectivewithout
beingoverlycomplexorcostly.
Institutionalcapacityhowmuchadditional
capacitybuildingandknowledgetransferis GHGemissionimplicationsofthepotential
requiredfortheadaptationoptiontobe adaptationsshouldbeconsidered.Inmanycases,
implemented thiswillnotbeanissue,butcareshouldbetaken
toensurethatemissionsarenotincreasedbythe
Adequacyforcurrentclimatearetherenegative
adaptationsothatclimatechangeisnot
consequencesoftheadaptationoptioninthe
exacerbatedbytheactivity.(Forexample,
currentclimate?Someadaptationsmaybe
buildingareservoircouldincreasecarbon
targetedatthefutureclimatebutmayhavecosts
emissionsasfloodedtreesdecayandrelease
andconsequencesunderthecurrentclimate
carbon. However,USAIDislessandlessinvolved
Sizeofbeneficiariesgroupadaptationsthat
inthistypeofinfrastructureproject.)
providesmallbenefitstolargenumbersofpeople
TheoutputofStep3wouldbeacompletedmatrix
willoftenbefavoredoverthosethatprovidelarger
and/orassessmentresultsinaformspecifiedby
benefits,buttofewerpeople
Exhibit11summarizesthemaincriteriathatwere
usedinthefourV&Apilotstudiestoevaluate
adaptations.
decision-makers.Anillustrationofanassessment
matrixfromthePolokwane,SouthAfricapilotstudy
isprovidedinExhibit12onthenextpage.
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 17
EXHIBIT 12 - MATRIX FOR EVALUATING ADAPTATION OPTIONS IN
POLOKWANE, SOUTH AFRICA
IBI
IBI
management existing
High High High High
High High Medium
Recycling urban Medium High High Medium High
Reuse mining High High High Medium
Reallocation of dam yield Medium High High Medium High
High High Medium
High High High
High High High Medium
High High High
ADAPTIONOPTION EFFECTIVENESS COST
TECHNICAL
FEAS LITY
SOCIALAND
CULTURAL
FEAS LITY
SPEED
Water conservation and demand Low
Level of service/future Low Low
Low
Conjunctive use Low Low
Expand well fields Low Low
Build new dam Low
Rainwater harvest Low Low
STEP 4: SELECT COURSE OF
ACTION
ThepurposeofthisstepistousetheresultsfromStep
3toselectoneormoreadaptationstobe
implementedwithassistancefromtheprojector
program.Thisstepisveryimportantintermsof
determiningtheultimatesuccessoftheV&Aelements
intheprojectorprogram.Itisalsothestepinthe
approachwherelocalownershipofboththeprocess
anddecisionisessentialandclosecoordination
betweenUSAID,itsimplementingpartners,and
decision-makerswillbeneeded.Thiscouldinvolve
organizingvenuesfordiscussion,facilitatingthose
discussions,andgatheringinformationtoaddressgaps
intheanalysisidentifiedinthedeliberationon
adaptationoptions.ConsistentwithUSAIDs
commitmenttotransparencyandaccountability,the
implementingpartnershouldmakeanefforttoensure
thereisbuy-intothedecision-makingprocessin
governmentandthatallimportantparties,including
keystakeholders,arerepresentedinthedecision-
makingprocess.Decision-makersshouldbe
encouragedtoranktherelativeimportanceof
selectionfactorstopromotetransparencyinthefinal
selection. Itisimportanttorecognizethattheranking
offactorsmustbeinthecontextofthecountrys
economic,environmental,andsocialgoalsnotin
termsofthesuccessoftheprojectorprogram.Partly
thisreflectsthefactthatprojectshavelimited
timeframesandresourcesthatmightonlyallow
supportforasubsetofadaptationsunder
consideration.
Theprocessofselectingacourseofactionis
summarizedforthreeofthefourV&Apilotstudiesin
Exhibit13onthenextpage.ForLaCeiba,Honduras,
Steps4and5aredescribedindetailinExhibit14.
STEP 5: IMPLEMENT
ADAPTATIONS
Onceadaptationoptionsareselected,thenextstepis
implementation.Iftheoptionswereselectedto
modifyaprojectthatwasalreadybeingplanned,
implementationoftheoptionswillbecomeapartof
theimplementationofthatparentproject.The
implementationplanwilltypicallyincludethe
followingcomponents:betterdefinitionofthespecific
tasks,schedule,androlesofimplementingpartners,
decision-makers,andstakeholders;and,resource
requirements.Ifyouhavebeenworkingwithan
implementer(i.e.,undercontractorcooperative
agreement),theyshouldbeinvolvedinrevisingthe
implementationplan. Inaddition,theimplementers
workplanmayhavetoberevisedtoreflectneedsto
buildcapacity,financeimplementationinterventions,
orcarryoutotheractivitiesmutuallyagreedby
assistancepartnersandUSAID.
Theimplementationplantypicallywillincludethe
followingcomponents:
Strategythatdescribesactionsandatimelinefor
formalizingtheadaptationoptions,initiating
activities,designinginvestments,andcoordinating
activitieswithotherprojectsandprogramsof
USAID,otherdonorsandthegovernment;
Capacitybuildingneedsassessmentandtraining
plan;
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 18
EXHIBIT 13 - SELECTING A COURSE OF ACTION
PILOTSTUDY COURSEOFACTION
MALI
2ndStakeholderWorkshopconvenedtopresentanalysisofadaptationsandprioritizeadaptations
Farmersprioritiesforadaptationsfocusedonirrigationinfrastructure,betterequipmentandstorage
capacityandcredittoallowcroptobestoreduntilpricesaremorefavorable
Representativesoftheregionalagriculturaltechnicalservicesfavoredcropdiversification,germplasm
improvements,andbettersoilandfertilizermanagement
2ndStakeholderWorkshopconvenedtopresentanalysisofadaptations.
SOUTHAFRICA
ParticipantsappliedtheevaluationcriteriafromStep3tocompletetheanalysisofoptions
Stakeholdersfavoredwaterdemandandconservationadaptationsovernewinfrastructure consistent
withcurrentprioritiesofSouthAfricaandUSAIDmission(waterdemandonly)
Adaptationspresentedtoparticipantsin2ndNationalWorkshopbutnotselectedforaction
ResultsprovidedtoThaiGovernmentforconsiderationinthedevelopmentoftheNationalStrategic
PlanonClimateChangethatwillincludeadaptationstrategiesinfivevulnerablesectorsandan
adaptationcapacitybuildingstrategy
THAILAND
Financial/businessplancoveringexpenditure
needsandrevenuegeneration,opportunitiesfor
co-financing;
Outreach/communicationsplan;
Exit/sustainabilityplan;and
Planformonitoringperformanceofthe
adaptations.
Theimplementationofadaptationoptionsreliesvery
heavilyontheengagementofthehostcountryas
USAIDprojectsandprogramswilllikelybelimitedin
durationandresources.Thelocalgovernmentwillbe
calledontoparticipateandlatercontinue
performancemonitoringandevaluation,andorganize
financingandtechnicalsupportforthoseadaptations
notincludedintheUSAIDprojectorprogram.The
exit/sustainabilityplanwillbeakeydocumentto
ensurecontinuityofimplementationactivitiesand
capacitybuildingaswellasmonitoringand
evaluation.Exhibit14onthenextpageillustrateshow
adaptationsinLaCeibaarebeingcoordinated
betweenthelocalofficeoftheUSAID-fundedMIRA
IntegratedWatershedManagementProjectandthe
UniversityofColoradoonbehalfoftheLaCeiba
Municipality.
STEP 6: EVALUATE THE
ADAPTATIONS
Afteradaptationoptionshavebeenimplemented,the
finalstepistoevaluatethem.Thepurposeofthe
evaluationistodeterminewhethertheprojector
activity1)deliverstheintendedbenefitsand/or2)
causesadverseoutcomes.Evaluatingaprojector
activityseffectivenessinreducingrisksfromclimate
variabilityandchangecanpresentimmediate
problemsfortworeasons:
1.Theprojectmaybedesignedtoreduce
vulnerabilitytoinfrequentextremeevents.Ifan
extremeeventoccurs,thentheprojectoractivity
canbeevaluated.Ifsuchaneventhasnot
occurred,itmaybedifficulttodetermineifthe
projectoractivitywasproperlyimplemented.
Notethateveniftheeventdoesnothappen
followingimplementation,thisdoesnotmeanthe
investmentwasunjustified.
2.Theprojectmayhavebeenmodifiedto
incorporatelong-termrisksfromclimatechange.
Thiscanbeevenmoredifficulttoevaluate.Long-
termchangesinclimatemaynotbeevidentwhen
itcomestimetoevaluatetheproject.Thislackof
animmediatepayoffshouldnotbeafactorinthe
decisionanalysis.
Incasessuchasthis,thereareotherwaystoevaluatea
projectoractivity.
Easeofimplementation.Howeasyordifficult
wasittoimplementtheproject?Howdoesthis
comparetowhatwasexpectedinthe
implementationplan?
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 19
EXHIBIT14 - IMPLEMENTATION OF ADAPTATIONS IN LA CEIBA, HONDURAS
theri
l
l
i ;(5)
i
i
theregion.
protectionactionswithintheplans.
l
4. i
STEP4:SELECTCOURSEOFACTION
InLaCeiba,theProjectTeamconvenedthesecondoftwoStakeholderWorkshopsandpresentedthelistandanalysisof18
proposedadaptations.DuringtheWorkshop,stakeholdersrejectedtwooftheadaptations(constructionofaseawallandliningof
verchannel)becausetheywerenotdeemedtobefeasible,andaddedthreenewadaptations. Theadaptationsonthefinallist
includedthefollowing(newoptionsidentifiedthroughstakeholderobservationsareinitalics):
Riskmanagement (1)Decidewhatlevelofriskisappropriate;(2)Zoning;(3)Environmentaleducation
Coasta zone(developedareas) (1)Buildinggroinstoprotectagainsterosion;(2)Sandpumping;(3)Buildingbreakwaters
Coasta Zone(lessdevelopedareas) (1)Set-backs;(2)Zoningandbuildingcodes;(3)Constructionofhousesonstilts
RioCangrejalflooding (1)Improveddesignandhigherleveesinmostvulnerablelocations;(2)Limit deforestation and promote
reforestation; (3)Constructafloodcontroldam;(4)Dredgingofr ver Flood warning system
Urbandra nage (1)Accommodate/adapttoflooding;(2)Installdrainagesystems
STEP5:IMPLEMENTADAPTATIONS
TheProjectTeam,inconsultationswithstakeholdersandtheMIRAprojectstaffinLaCeiba,recommendedasetofadaptationsfor
USAIDtoconsideraddingtotheMIRAprojectandanothersetofinfrastructure-relatedadaptationsthatcouldbefinancedby
multi-lateraldevelopmentbanksordonors.Effortstoimplementrecommendedadaptationsareunderway.
TheMIRAProjectiscarryingoutthreefollow-upactivities:
1.Micro-watershedmanagementplann ngandimplementation. MIRAhasincorporatedthefloodinganalysis,improvedland-use
andwatershedmanagementrecommendationsinthedevelopmentandimplementationofmicro-watershedmanagementplansin
Informationfromthestudyhasbeenusedinlocalstakeholderworkshopstohelpdefinespecificland-use,forestryand
2.Disasterpreparednessandresponse. Identificationandmitigationofvulnerabilitytonaturaldisastersisakeycomponentofthe
micro-watershedplansdevelopedbytheproject.RiskassessmentandriskmitigationinformationfromtheStratusstudyhasbeen
incorporatedintothevulnerabilityassessmentsandmitigationrecommendationsintothewatershedplans,aswellascommunity
leveldisasterpreparednessandresponseplansandtrainingevents.
3.Loca governanceandenvironmentalpolicy. Riskmanagementprinciplesandimprovedland-useandlanddevelopmentpractices
wereincludedinlocalpolicyandordinanceinitiatives,especiallythoserelatedtotourismdevelopment.
Urbanfloodpla nmodelinganddesign.CivilEngineeringclassesattheUniversityofColoradoareusingLaCeibaasateaching
toolunderthedirectionofProfessorKenStrzepek(whowasamemberoftheProjectTeam).Studentshavemodeled50-year
floodsandthe50-yearfloodplainanddevelopedthepre-designfortheurban drainage system foroneofthepoorandvulnerable
neighborhoodsofLaCeiba.Subsequentclasseswillproducedesignsandcostestimatesforurbanstormwatersystemsforall
downtownareasofLaCeiba.
Costs.Werecostsofimplementationas
anticipated?
Theevaluationshouldexamine:
Adverseimpacts.Hastheprojectoractivity
causedadverseimpacts,e.g.,environmental
impacts?Weretheseanticipated?Howcantheybe
ameliorated?Ifunanticipated,dotheseadverse
impactsoutweightherealizedorpotentialbenefits
oftheproject?Thesecanbedifficultand
challengingquestionstoaddress.
Creationofbenefits.Hastheprojectproduced
immediatebenefits?Howdothesecompareto
whatwasanticipatedintheimplementationplan?
Iftheevaluationhasrevealedthattheadaptation(s)
havenotbeensuccessfulinconfrontingclimate
variabilityandclimatechangethenitwouldbe
necessarytoreturntoStep3andreassesspossible
adaptationsandselectnewadaptationsormodifythe
currentsetofadaptations.Thesuccessofadaptations
willbebothincomparisontothebaselineand
throughadirectconsiderationofthesocioeconomic
situationoftheaffectedlocalpopulation.
CONCLUSION AND
NEXT STEPS
Thereisanadditionalroleevaluationcanplay,thatis,
toevaluatethisprocessitself.Usersshouldevaluate
howwellthesestepsworked,therolestakeholders
played,theusefulnessofanalysisininforming
decision-making,howconsensusonselectionof
optionswasreached,andsoon.Suchinformationcan
beusefulinupdatingandimprovingthisprocessfor
futureprojectplanninganddesign.
TheGlobalClimateChangeTeamviewsthisManual
asadocumentthatwillgrowandchangeasneeded.
Ifyouhaveanyquestionsorcomments,pleasecontact
JohnFurlow(jfurlow@usaid.gov).
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 20
ANNEX 1
PILOT STUDY CONTRIBUTORS
LaCeiba,HondurasPilotStudy
JoelB.Smith(Coordinator)StratusConsulting
KennethStrzepek(climatescience)UniversityofColorado
JulieRichards(coastalanalysis)UniversityofSouthampton
JulioCardini(coastalanalysis)-consultant
MarioCastanedaandCarlosQuiroz(floodinganalysis)-consultants
PepeHerrero,ChristianeAriasandJuanMoyaMIRAProject,IRG
Zignasso,MaliPilotStudy
Dr.KrisEbiandJoelSmith(Co-Coordinators)
MamadouDoumbiaandAlphaKergna(analysisofadaptationoptions)
TanveerButtandBruceMcCarl(analysisofclimatechangeimpactsonagriculture)TexasA&MUniversity
SiakaBagayoko(organizationofstakeholdermeetings)
Polokwane,SouthAfricaPilotStudy
JoelB.Smith(Coordinator)StratusConsulting
KennethStrzepek(climatescience)UniversityofColorado
MarkTadrossandBruceHewitson(climatechangescenarios)-ClimateSystemsAnalysisGroup,Universityof
CapeTown
JamesCullisandAndreGorgens(runoffandwatermanagementanalysis)-NinhamShandConsultingService
BurgertGildenhuys(baselinewaterdemandprojections)-BCGildenhuysandAssociates
PetrusMatji(organizationofstakeholdermeetings)MatjiandAssociates
BeyersHavenga(partner)SouthAfricanDepartmentofWaterAffairs
SongkramRiver,ThailandPilotStudy
PradeepTharakanandGlenAnderson(Coordinators)IRG
SuppakornChinnavanoandAnondSnidvongs(climatescenarios)START-SEA(GlobalChangeSystemfor
Analysis,ResearchandTraining-SouthEastAsiaCenter)
RichardFriend,DavidBlake,SuparerkJanprasart,TawatachaiRattanasornandRattaphonPitaktapsombut
(stakeholdermeetingsandadaptationoptions)MekongWetlandBiodiversityProgram,IUCN
JuhaSarkkulaandMattiKummu(inundationmodeling)WUP-Fin(WaterUsersProgram,Finnish
EnvironmentalInstitute)
AreeWattanaTummakird,OfficeofNaturalResourcesandEnvironmentalPolicyandPlanning(ONEP),
MinistryofNaturalResourcesandEnvironment
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE 21
ANNEX 2 V&A RESOURCES AND LINKS
SUBJECT ORIGINAL SOURCE YEAR LINK
USAID
e/index.html
2007
IPCC 2007
IPCC 2001
Impacts
2005
2002
2004
UNEP
2000
I
Gross Domestic Product per capita in 1999 USD
2001
Maps/SKAR-64GDHA?OpenDocument
2001
Maps/SKAR-64GBEW?OpenDocument
2005
Maps/LDOK-697TZF?OpenDocument
Global Climate Change General
USAID Global Climate Change Team program and
documents (World)
Website
http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/environment/climat
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability (World)
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) http://www.ipcc.ch/activity/wg2outlines.pdf
Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability - Summary for Policy Makers of the
Working Group II (World)
http://www.ipcc-wg2.org/
Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability (World)
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc tar/wg2/index.htm
Global Climate Change
Climate impacts of El Nio (Latin America)
United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP)
(citing: IPCC 2001, FAO 2002, UNEP 2003)
http://www.vitalgraphics.net/lac.cfm?pageID=24
Africa aridity zones (Africa)
World Meteorological Organization (WMO), UNEP,
Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the
Third Assessment Report of the IPCC
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/aridity zones
Impacts of climate change on Africa (Africa) Anna Ballance, UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2002
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/climate_change_vul
nerability in africa1
Sea Level Rise Rate (World) US Environmental and Protection Agency
http://yosemite.epa.gov/OAR/globalwarming.nsf/con
tent/ClimateTrendsSeaLevel.html
Potential impact of sea level rise (Nile Delta) http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/34a.htm
Potential impact of sea level rise (Bangladesh)
UNEP/GRID Geneva: University of Dacca; JRO
Munich; The World Bank; World Resources Institute,
Washington D.C.
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/potential impact of
_sea_level_rise_on_bangladesh
Socioeconomic Data and ndicators
(World)
United Nations Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs - ReliefWeb
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900Large
World Human Development Index 2001 (World)
United Nations Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs - ReliefWeb
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900Large
Population density (South Asia)
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations (FAO)
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900Large
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
22
SUBJECT ORIGINAL SOURCE YEAR LINK
2005
2005
data id=26428&theme=
CIESIN 2002
CIESIN 2025 population projections SRESB2
CIESIN 2002
Health I I
UNEP 2006
UNEP 2006
ld
2006
UNEP 2005
A-6HAJUR?OpenDocument
UNEP
UNEP
2000
2002
2002
2001
2002
Poverty by GDP (Africa) World Resources Institute
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/fullMaps Af.nsf/luFullMap
/A82EDDCCA545615A852570FA0065CFAB/$File/
wri_EDU_afr310805.pdf?OpenElement
Projected population density (World) CIESIN, FAO and CIAT
http://www.povertymap.net/mapsgraphics/index.cfm?
CIESIN 2025 GDP projections SRESB2 (World)
www.ciesin.org/datasets/downscaled/htmls/Guidance
_Paper.pdf
(World)
http://ciesin.columbia.edu/datasets/downscaled/
mpacts and ndicators
Malaria: baseline climate vs. climate change scenario
(World)
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/41.htm
Spread of major tropical vector-borne diseases
(Tropics)
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/39.htm
Malaria grip in Africa (Africa)
A. Plarr McGinn, Malaria, Mosquitoes, and DDT, Wor
Watch, Vol. 15. No.3, May-June 2002
http://www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica/english/18.htm
Lack of access to safe water as of 2001 (World)
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/AHA
Natural Resources and Water
Fresh water stresses: water withdrawal as
percentage of total available (World)
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/37.htm
Level of water stress for the global population in
1990 and 2025; Population living in countries with
water stress under different emissions scenarios in
the 2080's (World)
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/38.htm
Global Freshwater Withdrawal: Country Profiles
Based on Agricultural, Industrial and Domestic Use
(World)
Based on data from Table FW1 in 'World Resources
2000-2001, People and Ecosystems: the Fraying Web of
Life', World Resources Institute (WRI), Washington DC,
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/global freshwater wi
thdrawal_country_profiles_based_on_agricultural_in
dustrial_and_domestic_use
World's Freshwater Supplies: Annual Renewable
Supplies per Capita per River Basin (World)
Revenga et al., 2000, from 'Pilot Analysis of Global
Ecosystems: Freshwater Systems'
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/world s freshwater
supplies annual renewable supplies per capita per
_river_basin
Black sea water indicators (Black Sea Region) WRI, Washington DC
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/black sea water indi
cators giwa
Water availability and scarcity 1990 vs. 2025 (Africa
broken down by country)
UNECA, Addis Ababa; Global Environment Outlook
2000 (GEO), UNEP, Earthscan, London, 1999
http://www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica/english/15.htm
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
23
SUBJECT ORIGINAL SOURCE YEAR LINK
2002
1997
data id=10153&theme=
1997
data_id=23360&theme=
UNEP
Uganda (Uganda)
UNEP
1989
2006 p/3C91EAD07F9BD3678525711B0055739C/$File/w
(CRED)
2001
aps/SKAR-64GE97?OpenDocument
UNEP 2002
I I
1996
2004-2006
se2.asp
Fresh water stress and scarcity in Africa by 2025
(Africa)
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
(UNECA), Addis Ababa; Global Environment Outlook
(GEO) 2000, UNEO, Earthscan, London, 1999,
Population Action International
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/freshwater stress an
d scarcity in africa by 2025
Global cultivation intensity (World) Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP)
http://www.povertymap.net/mapsgraphics/index.cfm?
Soil degradation (World)
Atlas of desertification in the world, Second edition,
Arnold Publishers, London, 1997
http://www.povertymap.net/mapsgraphics/index.cfm?
Changes in cereal production under three different
GCM equilibrium scenarios (World/developed vs.
developing countries)
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/35.htm
Impact of temperature rise on robusta coffee in
http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/36.htm
Impact of temperature rise on tea in Kenya (Kenya)
Otto Simonett, Potential impacts of global warming,
GRID-Geneva, case studies on climate change. Geneva, http://www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica/english/22.htm
Natural Disasters
Natural hazards (World) UN World Food Programme
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/fullMaps Wd.nsf/luFullMa
fp_ND_wrl200206.pdf?OpenElement
Distribution of People Affected by Natural Disasters
1975-2000 (World)
Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/RWB.NSF/db900LargeM
People affected by natural disasters 1971-2000
(Africa)
http://www.grida.no/climate/vitalafrica/english/08.htm
Agriculture mpacts and ndicators
Global Climate Change and Agricultural Production,
(World)
FAO http://www.fao.org/docrep/W5183E/W5183E00.htm
Screening Tools
Community-based Risk Screening Tool-Adaptation &
Livelihoods (CRiSTAL)
The International Institute for Sustainable Development
http://www.iisd.org/security/es/resilience/climate_pha
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
24
l i
i
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