Commodity Report by Ways2Capital 21 July 2014

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COMMODITY WEEKLY REPORT
NCDEX DAILY AND WEEKLY LEVELS
DALLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 20-AUG-14 702.10 693.50 684.60 681.20 675.50 672.30 666.80 657.10 648.90
SYBEANIDR 20-OCT-14 3939 3867 3803 3773 3739 3709 3675 3611 3547
RMSEED 20-AUG-14 3699 3672 3645 3634 3618 3607 3591 3564 3537
JEERAUNJHA 20-AUG-14 12071 11951 11831 11758 11711 11638 11591 11470 11351
DHANIYA 20-AUG-14 12486 12301 12116 12048 11931 11863 11746 11561 11376
CASTORSEED 20-AUG-14 4412 4328 4244 4199 4160 4115 4076 3992 3908
WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 20-AUG-14 732.50 712.60 692.60 685.10 672.90 665.90 652.40 632.70 612.50
SYBEANIDR 20-OCT-14 4054 3944 3834 3789 3724 3679 3614 3504 3394
RMSEED 20-AUG-14 3820 3750 3681 3652 3611 3582 3541 3471 3401
JEERAUNJHA 20-AUG-14 12668 12353 12038 11861 11723 11546 11408 11093 10778
DHANIYA 20-AUG-14 13110 12725 13340 12160 11955 11775 11570 11185 10800
CASTORSEED 20-AUG-14 4998 4735 4472 4313 4209 4050 3964 3683 3420
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MCX DAILY AND WEEKLY LEVELS
DALLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
CRUDE OIL 21-JULY- 6424 6357 6290 6249 6223 6182 6156 6089 6022
GOLD 5- AUG-14 28815 28553 28291 28142 28029 27880 27767 27505 27243
LEAD 31-JULY- 135.50 134.05 132.50 131.80 131.05 130.30 129.50 128.05 126.85
NATURAL 28-JULY- 250 246 242 240 238 236 234 230 226
NICKEL 31-JULY- 1263 1219 1176 1149 1132 1105 1088 1045 1001
SILVER 5-SEPT-14 47517 46707 45897 45414 45087 44604 44277 43467 42657
ZINC 31-JULY- 142.20 140.85 139.50 138.85 138.15 137.50 136.80 135.45 134.10
WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
ALUMINIUM 31-JULY- 130.90 126.55 112.20 120.45 117.85 116.10 113.50 109.15 104.80
COPPER 29-AUG- 466 453 441 434 429 421 417 404 392
CRUDE OIL 21-JULY- 7035 6739 6443 6326 6147 6030 5851 5555 5259
GOLD 5- AUG-14 30409 29604 28799 28396 27994 27591 27189 26384 25579
LEAD 31-JULY- 139 137 134 132 131 129 128 125 122
NATURAL 28-JULY- 287 272 257 247 242 232 226 211 196
NICKEL 31-JULY- 1304 1248 1192 1157 1136 1101 1080 1024 968
SILVER 5-SEPT-14 49491 48011 46531 45731 45051 44251 43571 42091 40611
ZINC 31-JULY- 143.20 141.55 139.90 139.05 138.25 137.40 136.60 134.95 133.30
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
Important News
US Building Permits was at 0.96 million in the last month.
Sanctions on Russias biggest oil company boosted crude oil prices.
Euro Zone CPI unchanged at 0.5 percent in the month of June.
Renewed Ukraine concerns spurred safe haven status of gold.
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index gained to 23.9-mark in July.
Indian Currency
The Indian Rupee traded on a flat note and depreciated for fourth consecutive days and fell
around 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of
dollar demand from state run banks for oil and defense related payments. Further, rise in oil
prices after new sanctions imposed by the US on Russia exerted downside pressure on the
currency. Unfavorable trade balance data in prior trading session lead to concerns over the
financial stability of the country and acted as a negative factor.
Precious Metals
Spot gold prices gained by around 1.4 percent on Thursday as investors sought shelter in the
precious metal on fears of further turmoil after news that a Malaysian passenger jetliner had
been downed in Ukraine. Earlier, safe-haven bids had already boosted bullion prices on new
U.S. and European Union sanctions on Russia, fresh on the heels of news that a Ukrainian
fighter plane had been shot down over eastern Ukraine. Gold rallied $20 per ounce in about 40
minutes and the S&P 500 equities index tumbled after the Malaysian airliner was brought down
over eastern Ukraine, killing all 295 people aboard and sharply raising the stakes in a conflict
between Kiev and pro-Moscow rebels in which Russia and the West back opposing sides.
Before the Malaysian jetliner news, precious metal prices were higher on U.S. President Barack
Obama's move to impose sanctions on some of Russia's biggest companies for the first time over
Moscow's failure to curb violence in Ukraine.
On the MCX, gold prices rose by around 1.8 percent taking cues from strong international
markets and closed at Rs.28199/10gms.
On an next trading session basis, we expect gold and silver prices to trade on a positive note on
escalation of tensions in the Ukrainian peninsula and fresh round of sanctions imposed by US
on Russia. Housing data released last night did not come as per expectations appealing bullions
safe haven
appeal in turn acting as a positive factor for prices.
On the MCX, gold and silver prices are expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from
strong international markets.
Base Metals
Base metals on the LME largely gained on Thursday as the manufacturing data from the US
turned out to be positive despite expectations of it slowing down. Aluminum prices rose to a
16-month high yesterday as LME inventories slump to the lowest in 22 months.
However, sharp gains were capped on the back of unfavorable housing data from the US. Also,
concerns regarding the health of construction sector in China after Huntington Road & Bridge
Group warned that it might not be able to repay a $65 million debt due next week exerted
downside pressure on prices.
In the Indian markets, all the base metals traded on a positive note taking cues from
international markets.
Energy
Oil prices gained on Thursday, extending their rebound from a weeks-long decline as new U.S.
sanctions announced on Wednesday took aim at some of Russia's biggest companies for the first
time, including Rosneft, the largest oil producer. Gains accelerated over the afternoon as news
spread of a Malaysian airliner crash in eastern Ukraine, where government forces are fighting
pro-Moscow rebels. U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden said the jet was "blown out of the sky" and
Ukraine accused "terrorists" of shooting it down. On the MCX, crude oil prices rose by around
2.2 percent and closed at Rs.6221/bbl.
Natural gas prices on the NYMEX declined by more than 3 percent on moderating climate in the
US and inventory additions in storage more than the market expectations. Utilities have added
107Bcf of gas in the previous week as against previous addition of 93Bcf acting as a negative
factor for prices.
On the MCX, NG prices declined by more than 4 percent on weakness in international markets
and closed at Rs.238.60/Mmbtu.
On next trading session basis, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a positive note continuing
its gains from the previous session. Escalating tensions in Ukraine coupled with additional
sanctions imposed on Russia by the US will push crude prices higher.
Besides, incremental demand for crude in the US is visible in draw down in inventories for
continuous two weeks in a row is acting as a positive factor. On the MCX, crude prices are
expected to trade on a positive note taking cues from strong international markets.
NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
MANSOON WATCH
Monsoon covers entire IndiaIMD
The Rainfall deficiency falls to 36% from 42%
Agri counters trade with high volatile as moderate corrections seen over revival of Monsoon.
SETELITE IMAGE OF INDIAN WHETHER CONDITION AS ON 11/07/2014 9.45 A.M.
CHANA
After the recent fall in rates for Chana, prices bounced back as demand rose in the mandis.
Some more recovery is likely for the counter even as improved Monsoon reports could also
keep the uptrend limited. The demand that had picked up over last few days slowed down at
these higher levels as traders wait for dips before initiating fresh demand in the mandis. An
already weak Monsoon seen so far has been supporting the overall market sentiment for the
commodity. Re-peated efforts by the Govt to keep tab on hoardersmainly for essen-tial Food
items are however keeping the uptrend limited also.
Monsoon progress for next few days remains critical. Sowing of Kharif Pulses are likely to get
adversely affected if delayed and below normal Monsoon is maintained. Drought like
conditions and heat wave delaying sowing of most crops, monsoon rains were 42% below
normal till date
As per latest reports of sowing of kharif crops, kharif sowing area has crossed 182.40 lakh
hectare. It is reported that as on 4.7.2014, rice has been sown/transplanted in 45.12 lakh ha,
pulses in 7.50 lakh
On International front, Australian Chana production reportedly has fallen by 23%. A fall in
Dollar vs Re has kept the import cost of Pulses from Myanmar, Australia and Cana-da low
resulting in further weaken-ing of market sentiments.
SOYABEAN / REFI.SOYA
Refined soy oil continued the bullish tone on steady demand from traders and stockiests amid
low supplies. US markets firmed up on some support from Chinese de-mand at these low levels
coupled with geo political tension in Ukraine borders.
The soy oil remained under pres-sure due to excess supplies from imports. As per Solvent
Extractors Association of India (SEA) data bank, there has been a significant increase in
imports of Soy oil, sunflower oil & Rape oil and drop in imports of Palm oil, for last seven
months of edible oil marketing year (Nov - Oct Global production of 10 major oilseeds is
forecast to climb 3 percent in 2014-15 on a bigger soybean harvest, lifting stocks to a record by
the end of the next sea-son.
Soybean markets remained firm on demand from crushers and meal exporters picking up in
mandis across MP & Mahrashtra. The supplies are slow as suppliers are expecting a rally in
prices in the coming season.
As per per the latest date released by the Ministry of Agriculture, the oilseed sowing is around
14.49 lakh hectares down from a bumper sowing of 110.27 lakh hectares last year during the
same period.
Soybean production may jump to 301.9 million tons from 284.11 million tons. Brazils harvest
may climb to 90 million tons from 86.5 million and Argentina may gather 56 million tons from
55 million a year earlier. The inventories will be at a record 85.31 million tons.
CUMIN SEED (JEERA)
Jeera trades with extreme high volatility as the initial upside move-ment is followed by profit
booking by day end. Good Export demand however keeps sentiments firm for the commodity.
Arrival remained moderate. But an expected pick up in exports in coming weeks, supported by
a firmness in Dollar vs Re could support the prices. Downtrend from these levels seem limited.
Jeera rates are fetching premium w.r.t. International markets. Low stocks in global trade and
political unrest in Turkey and Syria have pushed export demand to India. India will remain the
primary export-er for this commodity as of now.
Cumin seed or jeera production in India is expected to rise to 6.5-7 million bags of 55 kg each
in the year 2014, from 4.5-5 million bags a year earlier, due to an expanded area under
cultivation and favoura-ble weather conditions.
Rape/mustard Seed
Rmseed picked up after a days weakness due to firm demand from meal exporters and crushers
in northern belts. The arrivals are in the range of 60,00080,000 bags of 85 Kg each.
Rajasthan government has lowered the VAT on rapeseed from 5 to 3 %. As per SEA of India,
the sowing area is estimated to be around 71.38 lakh ha higher by 3.89 lakh ha compared to
last year and production around 72.25 lakh MT.
This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market Research
Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are
based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from
sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient
only. This document, at best, represents Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion
and is meant for general information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its
directors, officers or employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated
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