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TREND TRAJECTORIES

BASED ON:
WHAT WE KNOW WITH
CERTAINTY !
MEGATREND
FRAMEWORK
BIRK Consulting, 2014
TECHNOLOGY
On the brink of a new industrial revolution
Evidence
Technological change happens exponentially. Moores law: 3 digital accelerators: Computer
processing power, storage and bandwidth.
Broad range of exponentially growing technologies, from nano technology, digital medicine to
robotics and articial intelligence
Mobile connectivity is near omnipresent, allowing emerging markets to leapfrog old economy
infrastructure - they catch up faster. Develop new business models using mobile computing to
address unmet needs.
Continuously falling cost of technology
Impact
25 years from now, computers will be innite in size, unbelievably fast and cost nothing.
Business models: Sharing economy, crowd-sourcing/nance, increased service-business based on product
intelligence using MEMS/networks. DIY-movement, open-source.
Innovation: in products, processes and management/business models. Increasingly disruptive -> Cost and
time of innovation cycles shortens.
Mass markets reached faster -> digitalisation, dematerialisation. communication, Internet of Things
Manufacturing: 3D-manufacturing, augmented reality, intelligent self-organising manufacturing will
revolutionise manufacturing and industrial applications
Industries: New industries are emerging: robotics, nanotechnology, life science, etc.
1. INFINITE COMPUTING 5. SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY
2. SENSORS & NETWORK 6. DIGITAL MEDICINE
3. ROBOTICS 7. NANO MATERIALS
4. 3D PRINTING 8. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH FIELDS
0
2000
WORLD CHINA INDIA E.U. U.S.
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
200
400
600
800
1,000
2,000
4,000
6,000
MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS
10
-10
1
10
10
10
20
10
30
10
40
10
50
10
60
MOORES LAW
C
A
L
C
U
L
A
T
I
O
N
S

P
E
R

S
E
C
O
N
D

P
E
R

$
1
,
0
0
0
YEAR
ALL HUMAN BRAINS
ONE HUMAN BRAIN
ONE INSECT BRAIN
1900 1940 1980 2020 2060 2100 1920 1960 2000 2040 2080
DEMOGRAPHICS
Reshaping demand and consumption
Evidence
The world population will grow from 7.1 bn. to 10.1 bn. before peaking in 45 years from now.
Urban population will grow by 1.2 Bn. within the next 20 years. Nearly all in emerging markets
The middle class consumers will grow by nearly 2 Bn. in the next 20 years.
Primarily in the emerging markets.
Ageing. In 2020 advanced countries will have more people over 65 than under 5. Advanced countries,
except the US, are ageing fast. But, also a few emerging countries such as China
Impact
The next 40-50 years will be a unique but challenging growth opportunity period in human history
Ageing in advanced markets will stagnate economic growth. Economic growth will be feasible, only through
Productivity gains, which will come knowledge and technology innovation. Robotics and other exponential
growing technologies will play a key role.
Stress on resources: Environmental degradation, stress on arable land and fresh water reserves and
exponential growth in energy consumption will require solutions based on technological advancement,
creating big growth in solar, nano- and sensor technology
10
WORLD POPULATION DEVELOPMENT
Source: United Nations
YEAR
B
I
L
L
I
O
N
0 500 1000 1500 2100
8
6
4
2
0
WORLD CONSUMPTION
Source: MGI McKinsey Global Institute Research 2012
20
40
60
80
0
2010
26
34
12
38
64
30
2025
EMERGING MARKETS
DEVELOPED MARKETS
T
R
I
L
L
I
O
N

U
S
$
GLOBALISATION
Emerging markets are accelerating globalisation
Evidence
Emerging markets are driving global growth and consumption.
Production/value chains and R&D is increasingly taking place in emerging markets.
19 of the 30 largest economies will be emerging economies within 20 years.
Global competition is increasing; In 2005, 9% of the worlds largest corporations were from
emerging economies, by 2011 it was 30%.
Growth in global trade is increasingly among emerging markets.
Labor market dynamics are changing rapidly. New low cost sourcing markets are emerging
Impact
Consumption: in emerging markets, requires SMART products developed in emerging for emerging
markets. Demand for local R&D, talent and human resource management.
Industry: mass customisation and standardisation will co-exist, being global and local at the same time.
Manufacturing will increasingly implement customisation and niche production.
The new middle class has different needs, preferences and legacy, demanding rethinking products,
services and business models.
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
% growth
Real GDP growth rates
Brazil
China
India
Russia
Emerging
economies
Advanced
economies
(G7)
World
ENVIRONMENTALISM
The cleanest energy is the one not consumed
Evidence
Energy consumption continues to grow: By 2030 world energy consumption will grow by 40%, 96%
of that growth is in emerging markets.
Resource scarcity due to urbanization and consumption, such as; lost arable land for food
production, lack of fresh water, rare earth materials.
The Cleantech industry is driven by investments in renewable energy.
Energy intensify is expected to fall signicantly by 2030. The industrial sector accounts for approx.
1/3 of total energy consumption worldwide.
CO2 emissions and earth temperature continue to rise.
Impact
Conict points: resource (food, land and water) scarcity can increase tension and conict points.
Intelligent solutions: Rising cost of energy and falling cost of technology, will inevitably increase
focus on lean energy consumption. Product intelligence, using low-cost MEMS, will increase efciency in
product performance and manufacturing processes.
New materials: New super (nano) materials such as graphene will provide bio degradable super-
batteries. Bio-degradable materials are already available for PET bottles and within few years for car
dashboards.
Waste/recycling: intensied focus to solve resource scarcity.
GLOBAL ENERGY USE SINCE EARLY TIMES
Soruce: P. Marsh 2012
100
200
300
400
500
600
0
1
MILLION
BCE
100,000
BCE
3000
BCE
1400 1900 1970 2010
0.05
MILLION
POPULATION
T
H
O
U
S
A
N
D
P
I
C
A
J
O
U
L
E
S
(
P
J
)
GLOBAL YEARLY INVESTMENTS IN RENEWABLE ENERGY
Source: Bloomberg 2012
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
B
I
L
L
I
O
N

U
S
$
ENERGY INTENSITY (TOE PER THOUSAND US$2010 GDP)
Source: BP Energy outlook 2030
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
1970 1990 2010 2030
WORLD
INDIA
US
CHINA