23rd July, 2014 Daily Exclusive ORYZA E-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine

Daily Rice E-Newsletter by Rice Plus Magazine www.ricepluss.
com
News and R&D Section mujajhid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell # 92 321 369 2874

23
rd
July, 2014

TOP Contents - Tailored for YOU
Latest News Headlines
FAO Forecasts 2014 Central America Paddy Rice Production at
574,000 Tons; Slightly Up from Last Year
Brazil Paddy Rice Index Declines Slightly From Last Week
Gambia May Reconsider 2016 Rice Import Ban
Guyana Rice Sector Plagued by High Production Costs, Says
Agriculture Minister
Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Recover to
Move Back above $13.00 before Taking out Nearby Technical Resistance
Oryza Global Rice Quotes
Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Pop Higher
Overnight as Market Searches for True Bottom and Other Grains Provide
Supportive Backdrop
Oryza Rice Currency Analysis for Today Brazil Real Adcances 0.5%
Vietnam Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes Today; Other
Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged
Rice Price Increases Fail to Cheer Vietnam Farmers
USDA Post Estimates China Hybrid Rice Seed Supply to Exceed
Demand in MY 2013-14
Philippines Domestic Rice Prices Reach Record High in January
June 2014

News Detail

Daily Rice E-Newsletter by Rice Plus Magazine www.ricepluss.com

FAO Forecasts 2014 Central America Paddy Rice Production at 574,000 Tons;
Slightly Up from Last Year
Jul 22, 2014

The UN's Food and
Agricultural Organization
(FAO) has forecasted Central
American countries' paddy
rice production to increase to
around 574,000 tons in 2014,
slightly up from an estimated
571,600 tons in 2013.
Sowing for the main rice crop
(May - October) has concluded and weather was favorable in most of the rice growing regions, with above-
average rains in mid-June. However, below-average precipitation in Nicaragua and southern Honduras led to
some crop losses and more rains are required to avoid reduction in yields in these countries. Planting for the
secondary rice crop (June - October) will begin in August.robability of an El Nino event in the last quarter of
2014 may affect rice production of the main season crop as well as secondary crop due to associated dry
weather.
Tags: Central America paddy rice production, El Salvador paddy production, Nacaragua paddy rice production, Honduras paddy rice production,
Guatemala paddy rice production
Brazil Paddy Rice Index Declines Slightly From Last Week
Jul 22, 2014

The Brazilian paddy
rice index maintained
by CEPEA reached at
about 35.93 real per
50 kilograms as of
July 21, 2014, down
about 0.4% from
about 36.03 real per


50 kilograms recorded on July 14, 2014.In terms of USD per ton, the index reached at about $323 per ton on
July 21, 2014, down about 0.6% from about $325 per ton recorded on July 14, 2014
Tags: Brazil rice prices, Brazil paddy rice index, Brazil Rice News

Gambia May Reconsider 2016 Rice Import Ban
Jul 22, 2014

The Gambia government is likely to
reconsider its decision to ban rice
imports from 2016 under the
President's "Vision 2016 Rice Self-
Sufficiency" Agenda if the rice
harvest for the upcoming season is
not satisfactory, according to local
sources.In a televised speech, the
President hinted at a possible
retraction of import ban depending on
the production levels in 2014 and
2015. He noted that the rice import
ban would hold good if the country
produced sufficient rice to meet local
demand by 31 December 2015. He
reiterated that his vision was meant to
make The Gambia self-sufficient in rice production and reduce its dependency on imports. He noted that the
country has enough resources such as land and water to grow sufficient rice for its people.
The President declared his stance in June 2013 and reiterated in April this year, but critics still feel the goal as
unrealistic given that The Gambia currently produces only 20% of its rice consumption needs and it would need
to increase its rice production by fivefold or more to reach self-sufficiency target. Experts say any ban on rice
imports without sufficient production may result in rice smuggling as in the case of Nigeria.USDA estimates
The Gambia to produce around 35,000 tons of rice and import around 125,000 tons in MY 2013-14 (October -
September) to meet consumption needs of around 165,000 tons.
Tags: Gambia rice news, Gambia rice production, Gambia rice exports, Gambia rice import ban


Guyana Rice Sector Plagued by High Production Costs, Says Agriculture
Minister
Jul 22, 2014
High production costs and the government's inability to find right markets for its rice exports are deterring the
growth of Guyana's rice sector, according to the Agriculture Minister, report local sources.Speaking before the
Parliamentary Sectoral Committee Meeting on Natural Resources on July 21, 2014, the Minister stated that
Guyana has been able to produce overwhelmingly good amount of rice for the last two years but the main
challenge faced by the country's rice sector is the ability to compete in the world market.
He stated that the country is unable to compete with top exporters such as Vietnam and Thailand as they can
offer rice at reasonable prices because of their low production costs. Whereas Guyana cannot offer rice at
competitive prices owing to high production costs, he noted.The Minister also noted that Guyana has a specific
premium rice market but that is being occupied by world's other top exporters. He warned that if Guyana has to
expand its premium market share, the government has to address the issue of production costs. It is important to
sustain in global rice market, he noted.
Guyana mainly exports to Venezuela, but is also negotiating with Haiti, Panama, Belize, Guatemala and several
other African countries. It is also trying to renegotiate severed trade relations with some European countries as
well.In 2013, Guyana produced around 535,000 tons of rice and exported around 395,000 tons, according to the
Minister. He said the government is forecasting the rice production to reach around 614,000 tons in 2014 and
targets to export around 461,000 tons.USDA estimates the country to produce 536,000 tons in the MY 2014-15
(January 2-14 - December 2014) and export about 400,000 tons. The country's consumption needs during the
year are estimated at 130,000 tons.
Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Recover to Move Back
above $13.00 before Taking out Nearby Technical Resistance
Jul 22, 2014
Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery settled 18.5 cents per cwt (about $4 per ton) higher at $13.165 per
cwt (about $290 per ton). Rough rice futures rebounded today following losses sustained late last week as well
as further losses yesterday. Todays move has returned the market above $13.000 and ultimately left the market
just above nearby resistance which had been noted at $13.145 per cwt (about $290 per ton) provided by the 10-
day moving average. Todays move is seen as a positive development for the market and could be interpreted as
an early sign that a reversal higher is underway. Look for a higher close tomorrow as further confirmation that a
recovery is indeed underway.
The other grains finished the day with less satisfying results with all components of the complex off over 1%;
soybeans closed about 1.3% lower at $10.5775 per bushel; wheat finished about 1% lower at $5.2450 per


bushel, and corn finished the day about 1% lower at $3.6825 per bushel.U.S. stocks rose on Tuesday, lifting the
S&P 500 to a record, with Wall Street cheered by quarterly earnings and data that cast a benign light on
inflation and progress in the housing market. The consumer price index rose 0.3% last month after a 0.4% rise
in May. The core measure, which does not take food and energy costs into account, increased 0.1%. Another
report from the National Association of Realtors had existing-home sales rising a better-than-expected 2.6% in
June.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 67.84 points, or 0.4%, to 17,119.57. After rising above its July 3
record, the S&P 500 added 11.35 points, or 0.6%, to 1,984.98, with energy and health care leading sector gains
and consumer staples and utilities the laggards among its 10 major industry groups. The Nasdaq climbed 35.25
points, or 0.8%, to 4,459.95. Gold is trading about 0.6% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.5% lower, and
the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.3% higher at about 1:00pm Chicago time.
Oryza Global Rice Quotes

July 22nd, 2014
Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 435-445
Vietnam 5% broken 445-455
India 5% broken 435-445
Pakistan 5% broken 435-445
Cambodia 5% broken 450-460
U.S. 4% broken 550-560
Uruguay 5% broken 625-635
Argentina 5% broken 620-630

Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken NQ


Pakistan 25% broken 380-390
Cambodia 25% broken 425-435
India 25% broken 390-400
U.S. 15% broken 530-540
Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 440-450
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 435-445
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 420-430
U.S. parboiled 4% broken 630-640
Brazil parboiled 5% broken NQ
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ
Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92% 1000-1010
Vietnam Jasmine 595-605
India basmati 2% broken NQ
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ
Cambodia Phka Malis 835-845
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super NQ
Pakistan 100% broken stxd 335-345
Cambodia A1 Super 350-360
India 100% Broken stxd 315-325


Egypt medium grain brokens NQ
U.S. pet food 470-480
Brazil half grain NQ
Medium grain milled

U.S. Calrose 4% broken 1025-1035
Egypt medium grain 6% NQ

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Pop Higher Overnight
as Market Searches for True Bottom and Other Grains Provide Supportive
Backdrop
Jul 22, 2014
Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery were noted 4 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) higher at $13.0020
per cwt (about $287 per ton) during early trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen higher this morning in
floor trading in Chicago: soybeans are currently seen about 0.4% higher, wheat is listed about 0.8% higher and
corn is noted about 0.4% higher. U.S. stock index futures rose on Tuesday, adding to gains after the government
reported the cost of living rose in June, with investor sentiment also stabilized by a breakthrough in
developments over the downed Malaysia Airlines plane and encouraging earnings reports. The consumer price
index rose 0.3% last month after a 0.4% rise in May.
The core measure, which does not take food and energy costs into account, increased 0.1%. As stock futures
gained, so did the U.S. dollar and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note. Crude futures gained, and gold futures
fell. In developments overseas, pro-Russia rebel leaders handed over two black boxes from the plane to experts
in Donetsk in Ukraine, who confirmed they were in good condition. Meanwhile, Russia's envoy to Malaysia
said in a news conference that the rebels did not have Buk missile systems and called for an investigation to be
conducted by the international community.
In addition, President Barack Obama said in a televised speech on Monday that he would still prefer a
diplomatic resolution to the situation in Ukraine and did not announce any "level three" sanctions. US stock
index futures are currently seen about 0.4% higher, gold is currently trading about 0.2% lower, crude oil is seen
trading about 0.1% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.2% higher at 9:30am Chicago time.


Oryza Rice Currency Analysis for Today Brazil Real Adcances 0.5%
Jul 22, 2014
U.S. dollar index was stronger +0.27% from the open today, when it traded at 80.780 at the close.
Euro was weaker -0.41% by the close, trading around 1.3468 by end of day, after trading between an intraday
high of 1.3530 and low of 1.3449.
Thai baht was stronger +0.42%, trading at 31.760 at the close of business.
Indian rupee was stronger +0.09% at 60.2513.
Brazilian real was stronger +0.47% at 2.2108 reais per dollar.
Pakistan rupee was -0.04% weaker at 98.8098.
Vietnamese dong was unchanged at 21220.
Mexican peso was stronger +0.25% today, when it traded at 12.9383 pesos per dollar by the close of business.
Chinese yuan was stronger +0.09% at 6.2037.
Argentine peso was weaker -0.06% at 8.1660 pesos per dollar.
Vietnam Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their Quotes Today; Other Asia Rice
Quotes Unchanged
Jul 22, 2014
Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice and 25% broken rice by about $5 per ton each to
around $445 - $455 per ton and around $395 - $405 per ton today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes
mostly unchanged.

5% Broken Rice
Thailand 5% rice (of new crop) is quoted at around $420 - $430 per ton, about $25 per ton discount to Vietnam
5% rice quoted at around $445 - $455 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday. India 5% rice is quoted at
around $435 - $445 per ton, on par with Pakistan 5% rice quoted at around $435 - $445 per ton.


25% Broken Rice
Thailand 25% rice (of the old crop) was last quoted at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $45 per ton discount
to Vietnam 25% rice quoted at around $395 - $405 per ton, up about $5 per ton from yesterday. India 25% rice
is quoted at around $390 - $400 per ton, about $10 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% quoted at around $380 -
$390 per ton.
Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice (of the old crop) is quoted at around $440 - $450 per ton. India parboiled rice is quoted
at around $420 - $430 per ton, about $15 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice quoted at around $435 -
$445 per ton.

100% Broken Rice
Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, (of the old crop) was last quoted at around $310 - $320 per ton, about $30 per
ton discount to Vietnam broken rice quoted at around $340 - $350 per ton. India broken sortexed rice is quoted
at around $315 - $325 per ton, about $20 per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice quoted at around
$335 - $345 per ton.
Rice Premix May Be the Answer to Anaemia in Philippines
Jul 22, 2014
A cost-effective fortified rice premix could be the answer to iron and zinc deficiency in the Phillipines if it
manages to clear the efficacy tests and market trials.
The multi-nutrient extruded rice kernels (MNERK), as the rice premix is called, developed by the Food and
Nutrition Research Institute-Department of Science and Technology (FNRI-DOST) of Philippines has to clear
efficacy, shelf life, vitamin and mineral tests before it is declared as the panacea for vitamin deficiency.
Dr Williams had introduced the concept of rice fortification as early as the 1940s in the Philippines but the idea
was abandoned as the country found it difficult and expensive to get the rice millers to comply with distributing
fortified rice.Although Philippines did record a drop in Beri-Beri disease after the children were fed fortified
rice, the rice millers who form a majority in the populace did not co-operate in distributing fortified rice. The
rice premix idea by the government may prove to be a success as it eliminates the need for rice millers to fortify
the rice.


Rice Price Increases Fail to Cheer Vietnam Farmers
Jul 22, 2014

Vietnam rice
farmers are not in a
position to take
advantage of the
increasing rice
prices and are
blaming the
Vietnam Food
Association (VFA)
for their plight.
They say the VFA
has not guided then
properly regarding
the market
demands and
prices, according
to local sources.

There is a reason
behind their
anxiety. Global
rice prices have
gone down
significantly
between January
and April 2014 due
to excessive sales
by Thailand.
However, after the
military
government took
over in May, it


ended the controversial pledging scheme and stopped the distress sales citing rice stock inspection as reason.
This development has led to a rise in not only Thai rice prices but also global rice prices. Viet rice prices are no
exception to this.Export prices of Viet 5% broken white rice have increased to around $445 per ton this week,
up about 6% from around $420 per ton in the beginning of July 2014, and about 8.5% from around $410 in June
2014. Prices of the same have increased by about 15% from around $388 per ton in July 2013.
In the beginning of the year, Vietnam has been very keen to clinch as many as export orders understanding the
stiff competition from Thailand, which had nearly 18 million tons of rice stocks accumulated from the rice
pledging scheme. In fact, Vietnam lowered prices to win the Philippines contract for 800,000 tons. Later it also
won the Philippines contract for additional 200,000 tons of rice as well as 200,000 tons rice contract from
Malaysia.
But this did not seem to be an encouraging factor to neither Vietnam rice exporters nor the rice farmers.
Exporters slammed the VFA and the two state-owned export enterprises for quoting too low bid for Philippines.
Some exporters went to the extent of withdrawing from servicing the Philippines contract. Farmers were forced
to sell their paddy to exporters at very low prices expecting a further decline in prices as well to clear their loans
and debts. Even the stock buying scheme introduced by the government hardly helped support prices.
Now, with the global market dynamics changing drastically, Vietnam farmers are lamenting that they do not
have any stocks left to be sold at current increased prices. They say they are not able to take advantage of global
rice price recovery. Increased demand from exporters as well as increase in global rice prices have pushed up
local rice prices in Vietnam as well.

VFA expects Vietnam to export around 7.2 million tons of rice in 2014, up about 7% from around 6.7 million
tons exported in 2013. Vietnam exported around 3.26 million tons of rice during Jan 1 - July 17, 2014, down
about 20% from about 4.1 million tons of rice exported in first seven months of last year, according to VFA.
USDA Post Estimates China Hybrid Rice Seed Supply to Exceed
Demand in MY 2013-14
Jul 22, 2014
USDA Post estimates China hybrid rice seed supply at around 430,000 tons in MY 2013-14 (July - June), up
about 32% from around 325,000 tons in the previous year. However, it estimates demand for rice seeds at
around 250,000 tons in MY 2013-14. This oversupply is leading to excess stocks in China, according to the
Post.The USDA Post estimates 2014 China's hybrid rice seed stocks to increase to around 155,000 Tons, up
about 8% from around 140,000 tons in 2013. Chinese rice seed companies have expanded rice seed production
beyond demand over the past several years due to strong profits and in expectation of future high production
costs.


But due to oversupply of rice seeds in the market, they have been taking steps to cut down on rice seed supplies
by reducing acreage in 2013, but seed production exceeded demand in 2013 leading to record stocks in
2014.The Post estimates 2013 hybrid rice seed production at around 290,000 tons, down 16% from around
250,000 tons last year due to reduced acreage. Rice seed acreage declined to around 104,000 hectares in 2013,
down about 19% from around 124,000 hectares in 2012.USDA Post estimates China to export around 19,000
tons of rice seeds in MY 2013-14, up about 12% from around 16,964 tons exported in MY 2012-13. China's
major export destinations are Vietnam, Pakistan, Philippines, Bangladesh and Indonesia.
The China government is planning to consolidate its seed industry by encouraging development of integrated
companies with independent research and development capabilities. On January 19, 2014, it released a high-
level policy document on agriculture seeking development of the modern seed industry.The Post reports that
China is also revising its seed law as part of its efforts to develop a stronger domestic seed industry. The draft
law is expected to be published for public comment in fall 2014 and, if approved, enacted in
2015.
Philippines Domestic Rice Prices Reach Record High in January - June 2014
Jul 22, 2014
Average
domestic rice
prices in the
Philippines has
reached a
record high
during the first
six-month
period of 2014,
highest since
January
2011.Accordin
g to data from
the Philippines
Bureau of
Agricultural
Statistics
(BAS), the
average
wholesale price of well-milled rice (WMR) in the Philippines increased to about P38.64 per kilogram in January


- June 2014, up about 18% from about P32.83 per kilogram during the same period in 2013, while the average
retail price of WMR increased to about P41.21 per kilogram in January - June 2014, up about 17% from about
P35.33 per kilogram during the same period in 2013.Average wholesale price of regular-milled rice (RMR)
increased to about P35.90 per kilogram in January - June 2014, up about 20% from about P29.86 per kilogram
during the same period in 2013. Average retail price of RMR increased to about P37.98 per kilogram in January
- June 2014, up about 19% from about P32 per kilogram during the same period in 2013, the BAS says.
In terms of USD per ton (using historical exchange rates), the average wholesale price of WMR stood at about
$871 per ton in January - June 2014, up about 9% from the same period in 2013. Average retail price of WMR
increased to about $929 per ton in January - June 2014, up about 8% from the same period in 2013. Average
wholesale price of RMR increased to about $809 per ton in January - June 2014, up about 12% from the same
period in 2013. Average retail price of RMR increased to about $856 per ton in January - June 2014, up about
10% from the same period in 2013.
The Philippines will import around 1 million tons of rice from Vietnam between May and August 2014 to
maintain buffer stocks and control rice prices in the country. It is planning to import an additional 200,000 tons
of rice, for delivery by September 2014, as typhoon Glenda destroyed several hectares of rice fields in the
country.

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