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To: Interested Parties

From: GBA Strategies

Date: July 24, 2014

CA-52 Survey Analysis


Scott Peters enters his first re-election bid in Californias 52
nd
Congressional District in a
strong position, despite a difficult political environment and a well-known Republican
challenger. Our survey
1
of 400 likely voters finds that both Peters and Republican Carl DeMaio
begin the race well known among likely November voters, as 80 percent of the electorate IDs
both candidates. With both candidates well established in the public mind, this is not a race that
is likely to have large swings as the candidates are introduced to voters. In fact, more than half
of likely voters already say they are absolutely certain which candidate they will support, with
Peters holding a 2-point edge in these solid supporters.

This mid-term electorate promises to be very different than the electorate that gave Peters
a 51 to 49 percent victory in 2012, as Republicans hold an 8-point advantage in partisan
registration among likely voters 34 percent Democrat, 42 percent Republican, 24 percent
decline to state (DTS) or other. Nonetheless, Scott Peters leads Carl DeMaio by 5 points (48 to
43 percent) at this stage, an 8-point net swing from where he stood two years ago at this time
against Brian Bilbray (44 to 47 percent).

PETERS vs. DEMAIO PARTISAN BREAKDOWN
Total Democrat DTS/Other Republican
Peters 48 83 56 16
DeMaio 43 12 32 76
Other 3 2 2 4
DK/Ref 5 3 11 5
Peters - DeMaio +5 +71 +24 -60

As the table above demonstrates, Peters margin in the race is based on superior
performance within his partisan base, as well as a significant advantage among DTS voters, less
than 1-in-3 of whom currently support DeMaio despite his high name ID. Peters enjoys broad
support across the district, but particularly among younger voters, who are significantly less
engaged in the election and less likely to vote. Peters ability to maintain his current advantage
will depend in large part on his ability to engage less consistent voters and ensure they come to
the polls in November.


1
GBA Strategies conducted a survey of 400 randomly selected likely voters on July 20-22, 2014. More than 1-in-3
interviews were conducted via cell phone, reflecting the high level of cell phone reliance within this electorate. This
survey carries a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.