Total investment today = $44 + $7 + (-$1) = $50
The values of the call and put have to be such that the payoff ($55)
is equal to the risk-free rate of return
(o/w have arbitrage opportunities)
Put-call parity: Prices of puts and calls with the same exercise price and expiration
date are precisely related to each other (due to arbitrage):
price exercise call put stock
of lue Present va of Value - of Value of Value
$44 + $7 - $1 = 50 = 55/(1.10)
How are options priced? P
t
= IV + TP
Where:
P
t
= option price period t
IV = Intrinsic value (= spot price in period t strike price for call)
TP = Time premium
TIME PREMIUM - always positive. A function of:
Time remaining before maturity.
Expected volatility.
interest rates (higher rates you save more by not buying the stock)
Volatility is the main influence. It represents risk for the writer so a
premium is charged.
8
Hedging with Options
Firms, banks, and individual investors can use options, as well as futures, to
hedge the risk from fluctuations in commodity or stock prices, interest
rates, and foreign currency exchange rates.
Options are more expensive than futures, but have the important advantage
that an investor who buys options will not suffer a loss if prices move in the
opposite direction to that being hedged against.
A firm or an investor has to trade off the generally higher cost of using
options against the extra insurance benefit that options provide.
As an options buyer, you assume less risk than with a futures contract
because the maximum loss you can incur is the option premium.
The options seller does not have a limit on his or her losses. The seller of a
put option is still obligated to buy at the strike price, even if it is far above
the current market price.
Many hedgers buy options, not on the underlying asset, but on a futures
contract derived from that asset.
Protective Put Strategy:
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Part 2: Forwards, Futures, and Swaps
(1) FORWARD CONTRACT
= An agreement to buy or sell an asset at an agreed upon price at a future time.
Forward contracts give firms and investors an opportunity to hedge the risk on
transactions that depend on future prices.
Generally, forward contracts involve an agreement in the present to exchange a
given amount of a commodity, such as oil, gold, or wheat, or a financial asset,
such as Treasury bills, at a particular date in the future for a set price.
Definitions:
Spot price The price at which a commodity or financial asset can be sold at the current
date.
Settlement date The date on which the delivery of a commodity or financial asset
specified in a forward contract must take place.
Counterparty risk The risk that the counterpartythe person or firm on the other side
of the transactionwill default.
Features:
1. The payoff profile for buying (going long) on a forward contract is as follows (Draw)
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2. Default (or credit) risk of the contract is two sided. Either the buyer or the seller will
lose the financial difference between the forwards price and the actual market price
at settlement date. This amount is paid only at maturity - no payments are made at
origination or during the term of the contract, this means a large loss position may
build up and no liability fall due until maturity. In these circumstances, default risk
can become considerable.
(2) FUTURES CONTRACTS
= A standardized contract to buy or sell a specified amount of a commodity or
financial asset on a specific future date.
Futures contracts differ from forward contracts in several ways:
1. Futures contracts are traded on exchanges, such as the Chicago Board
of Trade (CBOT) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
2. Futures contracts typically specify a quantity of the underlying asset to be
delivered but do not fix the price.
3. Futures contracts are standardized in terms of the quantity of the
underlying asset to be delivered and the settlement dates for the
available contracts.
Margin requirement In the futures market, the minimum deposit that an exchange
requires from the buyer or seller of a financial asset; reduces default risk.
For instance, on the CBOT, futures contracts for U.S. Treasury notes are standardized
at a face value of $100,000 of notes, or the equivalent of 100 notes of $1,000 face
value each. The CBOT requires that buyers and sellers of these contracts deposit a
minimum of $1,100 for each contract into a margin account.
Marking to market In the futures market, a daily settlement in which the
exchange transfers funds from a buyers account to a sellers account or vice
versa, depending on changes in the price of the contract.
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Example: March 1 Buyer opens contract requiring delivery of a $1 million 90-day
T-Bill at a price of $980,000.
If this were a forward : Buyer pays $980,000 on March 11 and gets the T-Bills
(Market prices March 2 March 10 wouldnt matter)
But since its a futures contract : Cash positions of buyer and seller adjust each day to
reflect changes in the futures price marked to market
Effect on the Account of
DATE Futures price (3/11) Buyer Seller
March 1 $980,000 ___ ___
March 2 981,250 $ 1,250 $ (1,250)
March 3 982,500 1,250 (1,250)
March 4 983,750 1,250 (1,250)
March 5 983,750 0 0
March 6 No Trading
March 7 No Trading
March 8 981,250 (2,500) 2,500
March 9 980,000 (1,250) 1,250
March 10 979,375 (625) 625
March 11 978,750 (625) 625
Total: (1,250) 1,250
Daily resettlements have to be paid in cash : Potential liquidity problem!
Very high leverage: For $1 Million 90-day futures contract, initial margin is
$1,500. Means 0.01 percent change in futures price of $1 Million equals a $1,000
change in margin. (Wipes out 67% of margin account)
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Example of a gold futures contract
Its June 2011
Agree with dealer to buy gold in Dec 31 @ $400/ounce
One contract = 100 ounces
You agreed to receive 100 oz of gold in Dec 31 @ $40,000
What do you pay today for this contract today ?
If in Dec 31 gold is selling @ $500/ounce
You take delivery & sell your 100 ozs in open mkt @ $50,000
Your gain $10,000
If actual Dec 31 price is $350/oz, your loss $5,000
If you do not want to wait until Dec and sell the futures
contract to someone else in Aug for $450/ounce, gain $5,000
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HEDGING WITH COMMODITY FUTURES
Short position In a futures contract: the right and obligation of the seller to sell or
deliver the underlying asset on the specified future date.
Long position In a futures contract: the right and obligation of the buyer to receive
or buy the underlying asset on the specified future date.
Consider the case of a farmer who in March sows seed with the expectation
that it will yield 10,000 bushels of wheat. The farmer is concerned that when
she harvests the wheat in July, the price will have fallen below $2.00, so she
will receive less than $20,000 for her wheat.
A manager who buys wheat at General Mills is concerned that in July the
price of wheat will have risen above $2.00, thereby raising his cost of
producing cereal. The farmer and the General Mills manager can hedge
against an adverse movement in the price of wheat.
Hedging involves taking a short position in the futures market to offset a long
position in the spot market, or taking a long position in the futures market to
offset a short position in the spot market.*
As the time to deliver approaches, the futures price comes closer to the spot price,
eventually equaling the spot price on the settlement date.
To fulfill her futures market obligation, the farmer can engage in either settlement by
delivery or settlement by offset.
1
1
In greater detail, the spot price must equal the futures price on the settlement date because if there were a
difference between the two prices, arbitrage profits would be possible.
In using settlement by offset, rather than actually delivering wheat, she would close her position at the CBOT by
buying two futures contracts, thereby offsetting the two contracts she sold in March. She sold the contracts for
$20,000 (= $2.00 per bushel 10,000 bushels). By buying them back for $18,000 (= $1.80 per bushel 10,000
bushels), she earns a profit of $2,000 in the futures market. In the spot market, she sells her wheat for $18,000,
thereby receiving $2,000 less than she would have received at the March spot price. Because this $2,000 loss is
offset by her $2,000 profit in the futures market, she has succeeded in hedging the risk of a price decline in the
wheat market.
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We can summarize the profits and losses of buyers and sellers of futures contracts:
Profit (or loss) to the buyer = Spot price at settlement - Futures price at
purchase
Profit (or loss) to seller = Futures price at purchase - Spot price at settlement
Graphs:
Summary:
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Speculating with Commodity Futures
Some investors who are not connected with the wheat market can use wheat futures
to speculate on the price of wheat.
If you were convinced that the spot price of wheat was going to be lower in July than
current futures price, you could sell wheat futures with the intention of buying them
back at the lower price on or before the settlement date.
Notice, though, that because you lack an offsetting position in the spot market, an
adverse movement in wheat prices will cause you to take losses.
Hedging with Financial Futures
Today most futures traded are financial futures. Widely traded financial
futures contracts include those for Treasury bills, notes, and bonds; stock
indexes; and currencies.
An investor who believes that he or she has superior insight into the likely
path of future interest rates can use the futures market to speculate.
For example, if you wanted to speculate that future interest rates will be lower
(or higher) than expected, you could buy (or sell) Treasury futures contracts.
Key Idea: Money you make (lose) in the spot market is lost (gained) in the futures
market, so you come out the same.
Example: A financial services company lends $10 million for two years, at an
interest rate of 10%. The cost of funds to the company is now 8% (so profit on first
year is (10-8)% x $10 million = $200,000). The company is worried that rates may
rise next year, to 12% (so would lose $200,000). In order to lock into a borrowing
cost of 8.00% in the 2
nd
year, they undertake the following transactions:
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MONEY MARKET TRANSACTIONS FUTURES MARKET
Today needs to borrow $10 million in
one year, for one year (to be lent to
another firm). The current rate (cost of
funds) is now 8%, rate on loan = 10%.
Profit in 1
st
year = +$200,000
Today: Sells 10 futures contracts at a
price of $926,000 (at rate = 8%) each
in one year. Nominal Value:
$9,260,000
In 1 year: Borrows $10m at 12%, loss
on loan = (12 10 %) x 10m
----------------------------------------------
Actual loss on borrowing in 2
nd
year:
$ -200,000
In 1 year: Positions expires, market
value of contracts = 892,857
(at rate = 12%).
Nominal value: 8,928,570
------------------------------------------------
Profit on hedge: $330,068
Bottom line: The financial services company has bought low, and sold high in the
futures market to offset the loss in the spot market.
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(3) SWAP CONTRACTS
= An agreement between two or more counterparties to exchange sets of cash
flows over some future period.
Interest-rate swap A contract under which counterparties agree to swap interest
payments over a specified period on a fixed dollar amount, called the notional principal.
With swaps, the interest rate is often based on the rate at which international
banks lend to each other. This rate is known as LIBOR, which stands for London
Interbank Offered Rate.
Why might firms and financial institutions participate in interest-rate swaps? One
motivation is transferring interest-rate risk to parties that are more willing to bear
it.
For example, suppose a company has issued 10-year floating rate debt this means
its annual interest rate payments depend on how high or low the prevailing interest rate
is. It can use a swap to convert its floating rate liability to a fixed rate liability. How?
Find a second party that will accept fixed rate payments from the company; the second
party then assumes the companys floating rate payments.
Who? Suppose theres a bank with fixed payments (interest on long term deposits)
and floating returns (consumer loans). A fall in interest rates would reduce its returns
and therefore its margin - it would therefore like to make its interest payments floating
as well so its funding gap is not vulnerable. It should swap its fixed liability for floating.
Solution: The company assumes the banks responsibility to pay fixed rate
payments, and the bank assumes the companys responsibility to pay floating rate
payments. The swap has solved both parties risk of interest rate fluctuations.
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2012 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall 43 of 50
Interest-Rate Swaps
Figure 7.2
Payments in a Swap Transaction
Wells Fargo bank and IBM agree on a swap lasting five years and based on a
notional principal of $10 million.
IBM agrees to pay Wells Fargo an interest rate of 6% per year for five years on
the $10 million.
In return, Wells Fargo agrees to pay IBM a floating interest rate. In this example,
IBM owes Wells Fargo $600,000 ($10,000,000 0.06), and Wells Fargo owes
IBM $700,000 ($10,000,000 (0.03 + 0.04)). Netting the two payments, Wells
Fargo pays $100,000 to IBM. Generally, parties exchange only the net payment.
Swaps
Currency Swaps
A basic currency swap has three steps:
1. The two parties exchange the principal amount in the two currencies.
2. The parties exchange periodic interest payments over the life of the agreement.
3. The parties exchange the principal amount again at the conclusion of the swap.
Credit swap A contract in which interest-rate payments are exchanged, with the
intention of reducing default risk.
Credit default swap A derivative that requires the seller to make payments to the
buyer if the price of the underlying security declines in value; in effect, a type of
insurance.
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