New methodologies to estimate the hourly

global solar radiation; Comparisons

with existing models
S.N. Kaplanis
*
Head of Renewable Energy Laboratory, TEI of Patra, Meg. Alexandrou 1, Patra 26334, Greece
Received 30 November 2004; accepted 8 April 2005
Available online 9 June 2005
Abstract
This paper describes two new friendly and reliable approaches to estimate hourly global solar
radiation on a horizontal surface even with a pocket calculator.
Such fast and reliable predictions for the hourly solar radiation are necessary for the real-time
management of both the solar energy sources, like a PV generator output in the one hand and the
power loads, on the other.
The predicted global solar hourly radiation values are compared with estimates from two existing
packages and the recorded solar radiation for the two biggest cities of Greece.
The two methodologies presented in this paper can be applied to any other site.
q 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Hourly solar global radiation; Energy and load management; Prediction
1. Introduction
Methodologies for the estimation of the hourly global solar radiation in a day n
j
, on the
horizontal, I(h;n
j
), have been elaborated and proposed by many researchers, as they are
reviewed in [1,2]. These estimates are necessary in order to:
Renewable Energy 31 (2006) 781790
www.elsevier.com/locate/renene
0960-1481/$ - see front matter q 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.renene.2005.04.011
* Address: Megalou Alexandrou 1, Koukouli, 26334 Patra, Greece. Tel.: C30 261 036 9015; fax: C30 261 031
4366.
E-mail address: kaplanis@teipat.gr.
a. Size properly solar thermal or solar power systems, i.e. PV-generators [3] and predict
their daily or their long term expected performance.
b. Manage simultaneously both the solar energy source, e.g. the output of a PV system and
the power loads.
The target is to determine via the estimated global solar hourly radiation the power
output to meet the loads, according to the priorities set in a micro-processor control
system.
The aforementioned methodologies are based either on the analysis of recorded
data [410] or on modeling techniques based on the analysis of meteorological data,
like humidity, ambient temperature, wind speed, etc. in order to predict I(h;n
j
) [11,12]
where h is the solar hour and n
j
is the number of the day measured from the 1st of
January.
From the ASHRAE model of the clear sky [13], various methodologies were elaborated
which resulted to sophisticated packages such as the METEONORM, which is both a data
bank in meteo solar data and a software package [14], using auto-regression techniques to
simulate expected stochastic variations in I(h;n).
The solar radiation data used for the prediction of I(h;n) in the methodologies
proposed in this study, are usually available on an hourly or monthly basis for Greece
[15,16]. Therefore 12 monthly values which give the solar radiation on the horizontal are
provided.
From the 12 monthly gures of solar radiation one might use a top down approach
to determine I(h;n
j
) from the determination of the clearness index k
t
(h;n
j
) as described in
[17,18].
In general, although sophisticated packages try to simulate stochastically and generate
I(h;n
j
) estimates with a good record, it is on the other hand, very useful to build and have in
hand reliable and easy to use models to estimate mean I(h;n
j
) values.
A model which was considered for comparison reasons to the model proposed and
examined in this work is the one proposed by Jain [19] and its modied version by Baig
et al. [20].
The solar insolation data for two cities in Greece, Athens and Thessaloniki, available on
an hourly basis [15], were used to provide an estimate of the basic parameters for both of
the above models [19,20]. Those recorded data served as the basis for comparison with the
predicted I(h;n
j
) estimates.
Hence, a comparison of the predicted I(h;n
j
) values based on [19,20] and the mean
hourly values derived from records over the past 10 years [15] for the above cities, is
presented. The comparison has been extended to many cities covering the
geographical latitude of Greece and for each mean monthly day with very good
results. Here in this paper the comparison is shown for two big cities and for 2
months, January and July.
Second, the METEONORM package was run to estimate the mean solar radiation
I(h;n
j
) for the representative day of the months January and July.
Third, a new approach to Jains model, as it was modied by Baig [19,20], was tried in
this paper and the new estimates for both cities in the same days, as above, were obtained
and compared with the results of the above methodologies.
S.N. Kaplanis / Renewable Energy 31 (2006) 781790 782
Finally, an estimation of I(h;n
j
) is attempted with a new model proposed in this work
based on the formula:
Ih; n
j
Za Cb cos2ph=24 (1)
a and b depend on f and n
j
, i.e latitude and day, respectively.
Instead of developing sophisticated and complex functions to determine them, a
methodology is developed, which uses two conditions easily built along with this proposed
model.
The target of this paper is to assess whole I(h;n
j
) estimates derived from the two
proposed reliable and friendly models, easily programmable in the frame of a micro-
processor for the management of the solar energy and the loads, too.
2. Models to estimate I(h;n
j
)
2.1. The METEONORM package
The I(h;n
j
) values are generated from the Aguiar and Collares-Perreira Time dependent,
Auto-regressive, Gaussian model [6], as described briey in [14], which consists of two
parts.
1. the rst, calculates the average energy daily prole, and
2. the second, simulates the intermittent hourly variations by superimposing an auto-
regressive procedure based upon:
k
t
h; n
j
Zk
t;m
h; n
j
Cyh (2)
where
k
t
(h;n
j
): the hourly clearness index
k
t,m
(h;n
j
): the hourly clearness index of the average daily prole
y(h): an auto-regression function of rst order
h: hour.
As hourly variations are simulated in METEONORM, while in this work mean
hourly values I(h;n
j
) are sought, METEONORM package was run for a group of 5
days, that is 2 days before the representative day of the month January and 2 days
after it, i.e. the I(h;n
j
) values for the 16th of January was obtained by grouping the
values of 2 days before and 2 days after the selected day. The same methodology was
followed for July.
Hence, I(h;n
j
) values were obtained by running METEONORM for the 14th, 15th, 16th,
17th, 18th for January and July. Those values were averaged for each hour.
The results for the cities Athens and Thessaloniki for the 16th of January and July are
shown in Figs. 14.
S.N. Kaplanis / Renewable Energy 31 (2006) 781790 783
2.2. The Baig et al. model [21]
It is based on Jains model [20] which tries to t solar insolation to a Gaussian type
function,
r
h
Z
1
s

2p
p exp K
h K12
2
2s
2

(3)
Athens 16/1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Measured
Jain's model
New approach
METEONORM
Proposed by author
Fig. 1. A comparison between mean recorded I(h,n
j
) values for the 16th of January for Athens and estimated
values from the METEONORM package, the Baig et al. model, and the two proposed methodologies.
Athens 16/7
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Measured
Jain's model
New approach
METEONORM
Proposed by author
Fig. 2. A comparison between mean recorded I(h,n
j
) values for the 16th of July for Athens and estimated values
from the METEONORM package, the Baig et al. model, and the two proposed methodologies.
S.N. Kaplanis / Renewable Energy 31 (2006) 781790 784
r
h
: is the ratio of I(h;n
j
) over the daily solar insolation H(n
j
)
h: solar time
s: is the standard deviation of the Gaussian curve. s is obtained from (3), when h is set
equal to 12, i.e. solar noon. Then, the value of r
h
at hZ12 is equal to:
r
h
12 Z
Ih Z12
Hn
j

Z
1
s

2p
p (4)
which provides a formula to derive s.
Thessaloniki 16/1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Measured
Jain's model
New approach
METEONORM
Proposed by author
Fig. 3. A comparison between mean recorded I(h,n
j
) values for the 16th of January for Thessaloniki and estimated
values from the METEONORM package, the Baig et al. model, and the two proposed methodologies.
Thessaloniki 16/7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Measured
Jain's model
New approach
METEONORM
Proposed by author
Fig. 4. A comparison between mean recorded I(h,n
j
) values for the 16th of July for Thessaloniki and estimated
values from the METEONORM package, the Baig et al. model, and the two proposed methodologies.
S.N. Kaplanis / Renewable Energy 31 (2006) 781790 785
Baig et al. modied the above model to better t the recorded data during the start and
the end periods of a day.
In this model, r
h
is estimated by:
r
h
Z
1
2s

2p
p exp K
h K12
2
2s
2

Ccos 180
h K12
S
o
K1

(5)
S
o
is the day length of the day n
j
, at a site with latitude f:
S
o
Z
2
15
cos
K1
Ktan 4 tan d (6)
where d is the suns declination.
S
o
is further investigated for a possible correlation with s. S
o
, is proposed in [21] to
satisfy the expression below:
s ZAS
o
CB; where A Z0:21G0:02 and B Z0:26G0:18 (7)
From the hourly data [16], taking I(hZ12) and H(n
j
), one may determine s from (4)
and/or (7). Then, from (5), r
h
values are obtained to provide:
Ih; n
j
Zr
h
!Hn
j
(8)
The I(h;n
j
) estimated values are shown in Figs. 14, for the 16th of January and 16th of
July for Athens and Thessaloniki, Greece.
2.3. A new approach to Jains and Baigs models
This work proceeded to a different approach to determine s without using the values
of I(hZ12). Two versions of this approach are presented as it concerns the determination
of s.
1st version. S
o
, the day length of the day n
j
, as determined from (6), is set equal to the
time distance between the points, where the tangents at the two turning points of the
hypothetical Gaussian, which ts the hourly I(h;n
j
) data, intersect the h axis. These two
points are at G2s distance from the axis origin [21]. Then, s is interrelated directly with
S
o
, as S
o
Z4s.
2nd version. If one draws the tangent at the two points which correspond to the full
width at half-maximum, FWHM, of a Gaussian curve it can be easily determined that the
tangent of each one point intersects the horizontal axis, i.e. the hour, h, axis at points G
2.027s, instead of G2s as in rst version.
Hence; in this case : S
o
Z4:054s; or s Z0:246S
o
(9)
This s value has to be compared with the one given by a related formula; see Eq. (7).
In this new approach, the determination of s, by either version does not require any
recorded data like, I(hZ12), as the Baig et al. model does.
Estimates of I(h;n
j
) under this new approach, compared with the previous models, are
plotted in Figs. 14.
S.N. Kaplanis / Renewable Energy 31 (2006) 781790 786
2.4. The proposed model by S. Kaplanis
In this model a and b are parameters which have to be determined for any site and for
any day, n
j
. Their determination is quite simple and is as follows:
Let; Ih; n
j
Zan
j
Cbn
j
cos2ph=24 (10)
Integrating (10) over h, from sunrise, t
sr
, to sunset, t
ss
, one obtains:

t
ss
t
sr
Ih; n
j
dt ZHn
j
Z2a!n
j
!t
sr
K12 C
24b
p
sin
2pt
ss
24

(11)
H(n
j
) values are taken from recorded data see databank [15] or by tting the function
Hn
j
ZACB sin2pn
j
=365 CC (12)
over the 12 monthly values, E(mo), of the solar radiation [15,16].
A second boundary condition provides a relationship between a and b. That is at hZt
ss
,
I(t
ss
;n
j
)Z0. Hence, from (10) one gets:
an
j
Cbn
j
cos2pt
ss
=24 Z0 (13)
Relationships (11) and (13) provide the value of a(n
j
) and b(n
j
).
I(h;n
j
) estimates of this model are presented in Figs. 14 and are compared with the
estimates of the previous models for Athens and Thessaloniki.
3. Conclusions
The estimation of I(h;n
j
) was tried for a large number of Greek cities applying the four
methodologies as outlined above. In this paper, the results are given only for two big cities,
Athens and Thessaloniki. It is clear that the two models, the new approach to Jains model
and the proposed by S. Kaplanis, are very simple, fast, effective and reliable. Estimations
can be derived even by a pocket calculator.
The estimates obtained by both of them are very close to the recorded mean I(h;n
j
)
values as provided by the two data banks [16,17].
A comparison of the results of Jains model and the new approach to Jains model
shows that they lie, also, very close as it regards the recorded solar hourly radiation. Their
differences are less than 2% with the new approach model giving better estimates.
Also, the proposed data by the author model estimates I(h;n
j
) are quite close to the
recorded solar radiation data during the day length.
During solar noon for both cities investigated, model no. 4 gives an underestimation of
about 23%, for the worst case, which is January at solar noon, while for the rest of the day
I(h;n
j
) estimates are very close to recorded values, even better than that achieved by other
models 2 and 3. It is remarkable to underline that the statistical standard variation of the
recorded I(h;n
j
) values is G10% for January.
As it concerns s and its relationship with S
o
, the empirical formula sZAS
o
CB by [21]
gives for A a value of 0.21G0.01, while s as determined in this work takes a value either
S.N. Kaplanis / Renewable Energy 31 (2006) 781790 787
0.25, if the rst version of model no. 3 is followed, or sZ0.246, for the second version of
that model.
One should remark that the new approach to Jains model and the one proposed by S.
Kaplanis, as developed for our research in contrast to Jains model, require only the
monthly values of the global solar radiation in a site.
Then, the daily solar radiation, H(n
j
), required for the new approach to Jains model and
the one proposed by S. Kaplanis, is obtained from the 12 monthly values when a function:
c
1
Cc
2
cos2pn
j
=365 Cc
3
(14)
similar to the one proposed in [4] is tted on them.
c
1
, c
2
, c
3
are constants to be derived for any climatic zone in Greece.
In the model proposed by S. Kaplanis constants a and b change with site, f, and with
the day n
j
. Especially, a becomes zero at equinox, n
j
Z81, as it becomes obvious, since I(h;
n
j
Z81) should provide symmetry for day and night time lengths over the 24 h.
Constant a was determined for Athens and Thessaloniki and for all mean monthly days,
see Tables 1 and 2. Its behavior is of the type of Eq. (14) with a correction coefcient of
higher than 0.99.
I(h;n
j
) estimations all year round, with METEONORM package, exhibits, even a
ltering procedure is followed, rather strong uctuations, which are obvious both for the
winter, and the summer months, too, see Figs. 14.
As it concerns the Jain model modied by Baig, the estimates of I(h;n
j
) show the
symmetry close and around solar noon, as imposed by the tting functions. The tting is
based on r
h
(12), obtained by the I(12;n
j
) recorded values. This model seems to provide a
very reliable performance, close to solar noon, which is due to the I(12;n
j
) recorded values
required by this model. For the rest of the day estimates of I(h;n
j
) decline within the
standard deviation.
It is remarkable that the modied, by this work, Baig model, does not require the I(12;n
j
)
value, as now s is determined directly by the boundary conditions set, as in Eq. (9).
The target of a further work is to apply the proposed by S. Kaplanis model to a large
geographical area and to provide formulae to estimate parameters a and b which are
Table 1
Constants a and b values for the representative days of the months for Athens
Month a (W/m
2
) b (W/m
2
)
January K128,26 K425,87
February K85,50 K457,07
March K18,41 K505,71
April 72,05 K540,57
May 148,78 K558,29
June 188,70 K569,41
July 177,32 K597,82
August 112,43 K625,32
September 10,15 K636,97
October K89,03 K610,96
November K149,24 K540,48
December K157,04 K467,54
S.N. Kaplanis / Renewable Energy 31 (2006) 781790 788
the basis of the I(h;n
j
) estimation without using the values H(n
j
) or the I(hZ12), by the
proposed by the author model and Jains model, respectively.
To recreate a real case scenario, uctuating I(h;n
j
) values may be further predicted
through a Gaussian sampling procedure applied on the model proposed here, as this will be
presented in a next paper.
Acknowledgements
The author acknowledges his research student N. Papanastasiou from the University of
Applied Science of Aachen, as well as Mrs L. Androutsopoulou and V. Spartianou, for
calculations of I(h;n
j
) for various Greek cities.
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