28 JULY 01 AUGUST 2014

W E E K L Y
R
E
P
O
R
T
Blow by Blow
On
Bullions,
Base metals,
Energy


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MAJOR EVENTS

MCX Gold futures are trading with modest gains after witnessing yet another
correctionyesterday. COMEX Gold futures extended their losses in overnight trades as
strong USeconomic data pulled the metal well under $1300 per ounce levels to test
their five week low. The counter fell sharplyafter the US initial jobless claims hit an
eight year low and stocks stayed supported.However, an uncertain global geopolitical
environment triggered some buying in Asia todayand the commodity currently trades
at $1292.60 per ounce, up $1.80 per ounce on the day.MCX Gold futures are trading
at Rs 27687 per 10 grams, up Rs 61 per 10 grams or 0.22% onthe day.
US labor markets continue to display signs of strength. The number of people
whoapplied for regular state unemployment-insurance benefits in the week that
ended July 19 plummeted by 19000 to 284000, marking their the lowest level since
February 2006. The average of new claims over the past month declined by 7250 to
302000, recording its lowest level since May 2007, the US Labor Dep. reported. The
Govt. also said that continuing claims in the week that ended July 12 fell by 8000 to a
seasonally adjusted 2.5million also marking the lowest level since June 2007.

The US Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural
gasstorage in the U.S. in the week ended July 18 rose by 90 billion cubic feet,
belowexpectations for an increase of 96 billion cubic feet.
The five-year average change forthe week is an increase of 46 billion cubic feet.
Working gas in storage was 2,219 Bcf asof Friday, July 18, 2014, according to EIA
estimates. Stocks were 561 Bcf less than lastyear at this time and 683 Bcf below the
5-year average of 2,902 Bcf.
The rise in inventories was less than expected and it helped the commodity bottom
out after apersistent wave of selling in last few weeks. Natural gas prices have been
on a downward trajectory amid demand worries and heavy stocks. The benchmark
September Natural Gasfutures rose from a seven month low after the latest data and
currently quotes at $3.852per mmbtu, up 0.05% on the day.

Natural Gas
Futures Off Seven
Month Low On
Stocks Data

Zinc Extends
Rally to 35-
Month High on
Supply Concerns.
Zinc prices extended a rally to a 35-month high as speculation mounted that global
demand will exceed supplies. Lead rose to the costliest this year. Zinc inventories
monitored by the London Metal Exchange have tumbled 30 percent this year to
653,900 metric tons, the lowest since December 2010. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
forecasts a global production deficit will widen to 154,000 metric tons next year.
Theres some genuine supply concerns, . The decline in LME inventories has been
extremely sharp. We can easily reach sub-500,000 tons by the end of the year, which
should be a significant supply squeeze. Zinc for delivery in three months rose 0.1
percent to settle at $2,390 a ton at 5:50 p.m. on the LME. Earlier, the price reached
$2,413, the highest since Aug. 4, 2011. The price has advanced 16 percent this year.
Lead climbed 1.3 percent to $2,267 a ton. The metal reached $2,279, the highest since
Dec. 30. Copper fell 0.6 percent to $7,125 a ton ($3.23 a pound), snapping a four-day
rally. Freeport-McMoRan Inc. got approval from Indonesia to resume exports after a
dispute with the government reduced output for six months. Nickel and tin climbed,
while aluminum fell in London. On the Comex in New York, copper futures for
September delivery fell 0.8 percent to $3.2405 a pound.

Gold Off Five
Week Low In
Asia.
E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R
DATE & TIME
DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS
July 28 7:15pm Flash Services PMI 62.3 61.0
7:30pm Pending Home Sales m/m -0.2% 6.1%
July 29 6:30pm S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 9.8% 10.8%
7:30pm
CB Consumer Confidence 85.5 85.2
July 30 5:45pm
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 234K 281K
6:00pm
Advance GDP q/q 3.1% -2.9%
6:00pm
Advance GDP Price Index q/q 1.8% 1.3%
8:00pm
Crude Oil Inventories -4.0M
Day 1 ALL
G20 Meetings
11:30pm
FOMC Statement
11:30pm
Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%
July 31 5:00pm
Challenger Job Cuts y/y -20.2%
6:00pm
Unemployment Claims 306K 284K
6:00pm
Employment Cost Index q/q 0.5% 0.3%
7:15pm
Chicago PMI 63.2 62.6
8:00pm
Natural Gas Storage 90B
Day 2 ALL
G20 Meetings
Aug 01 6:00pm
Non-Farm Employment Change 230K 288K
6:00pm
Unemployment Rate 6.1% 6.1%
6:00pm
Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.2% 0.2%
6:00pm
Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% 0.2%
6:00pm
Personal Spending m/m 0.5% 0.2%
6:00pm
Personal Income m/m 0.4% 0.4%
7:15pm
Final Manufacturing PMI 56.3 56.3
7:25pm
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 81.5 81.3
7:25pm
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 3.3%
7:30pm
ISM Manufacturing PMI 56.1 55.3
7:30pm
Construction Spending m/m 0.4% 0.1%
7:30pm
ISM Manufacturing Prices 58.6 58.0
All Day
Total Vehicle Sales 16.8M 17.0M










































S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
27585 27155 26690 28090 28590 29040
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
43740 42930 42100 44760 45570 46400
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX GOLD showed over all weakness
except last trading session of week and
closed below the trendline around
23.6% retracement. Now, if it sustain
below 27580 then next support may be
seen around 27350. On other hand if it
maintains above 28100 then bullish
movement may take it towards the
next resistance level of 28500.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
on highs for the targets of 27400-27000
with stop loss of 29100.

PIVOT TABLE
G O L D
PIVOT TABLE
S I L V E R
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX SILVER on daily charts last week
showed downward movement, gave
breakout of symmetric triangle pattern
on lower side and took support of
38.2% retracement. Now, if it sustain
below 43740 then next support is seen
around 42950. On the other hand if
some correction happens on higher
side then 23.6% retracement level i.e.
44800 will act as important resistance
level.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to sell below 43700 for
the target of 43000, with stop loss of
44800.



C R U D E O I L
C O P P E R















































S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
6070 5930 5795 6200 6300 6410
S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3
429.30 422.75 415.30 438.15 443.20 448.50
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Copper last week showed
sideways movement unable to test the
support level of 23.6% retracement
and again came back to resistance
level of 439.15. Now, if it maintains
above 440 then next immidiate
resistance is seen around 446.50. On
other hand if it sustains below 424
then it may drag towards strong
support around 415.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to sell
below 6080 for the target of 5950, with
stop loss of 6201.

PIVOT TABLE
T E C H N I C A L V I E W
MCX Crude oil last week opened on
strong note and sustained above 50%
retracement but this strength
discontinued in the next sessions
where it was unable to sustain near
6200 mark. On daily charts, it again fell
below the lower band of triangle
pattern. Bears may become active if it
sustains below 6080. Strength can only
be said if it closes above 6200.
S T R A T E G Y
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
on highs, with stop loss of 441 for the
target of 421.
PIVOT TABLE














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