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- 2a. Viotti and Kauppi, Thinking About IR Theory_pp 1-36
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inference. In order to formulate such a test, usually some theory has been

put forward, either because it is believed to be true or because it is to be

used as a basis for argument, but has not been proved, for example,

claiming that a new drug is better than the current drug for treatment of

the same symptoms.

In each problem considered, the question of interest is simplified into two

competing claims / hypotheses between which we have a choice; the null

hypothesis, denoted H0, against the alternative hypothesis, denoted H1.

These two competing claims / hypotheses are not however treated on an

equal basis: special consideration is given to the null hypothesis.

We have two common situations:

1. The experiment has been carried out in an attempt to disprove or

reject a particular hypothesis, the null hypothesis, thus we give that

one priority so it cannot be rejected unless the evidence against it is

sufficiently strong. For example,

H0: there is no difference in taste between coke and diet coke

against

H1: there is a difference.

2. If one of the two hypotheses is 'simpler' we give it priority so that a

more 'complicated' theory is not adopted unless there is sufficient

evidence against the simpler one. For example, it is 'simpler' to

claim that there is no difference in flavour between coke and diet

coke than it is to say that there is a difference.

The hypotheses are often statements about population parameters like

expected value and variance; for example H0 might be that the expected

value of the height of ten year old boys in the Scottish population is not

different from that of ten year old girls. A hypothesis might also be a

statement about the distributional form of a characteristic of interest, for

example that the height of ten year old boys is normally distributed within

the Scottish population.

The o

not re

N

The n

eithe

basis

trial o

bette

We g

fact t

wher

acce

The f

terms

not re

If we

null h

evide

sugg

See a

A

The a

hypo

new d

differ

would

The a

avera

outcome o

eject H0".

Null Hypo

null hypoth

r because

s for argum

of a new d

er, on aver

H0: there

give specia

hat the nu

reas the al

pted if / w

final concl

s of the nu

eject H0"; w

conclude

hypothesis

ence again

ests that t

also hypot

Alternativ

alternative

thesis tes

drug, the a

rent effect

d write

H1: the tw

alternative

age, than

of a hypoth

othesis

hesis, H0,

e it is belie

ment, but h

drug, the n

rage, than

e is no diffe

al conside

ull hypothe

lternative

hen the nu

usion onc

ull hypothe

we never

"Do not re

s is true, it

nst H0 in fa

the alterna

thesis test

ve Hypoth

e hypothes

t is set up

alternative

, on avera

wo drugs h

e hypothes

the curren

hesis test

represent

eved to be

has not be

null hypoth

the curre

erence be

eration to t

esis relate

hypothesi

ull is rejec

ce the test

esis. We e

conclude

eject H0",

t only sugg

avour of H

ative hypo

t.

hesis

sis, H1, is a

to establi

e hypothes

age, comp

have diffe

sis might a

nt drug. In

test is "Re

ts a theory

true or be

een proved

hesis migh

nt drug. W

etween the

he null hy

s to the st

s relates t

cted.

has been

either "Rej

"Reject H

this does

gests that

H1. Rejectin

othesis ma

a stateme

sh. For ex

sis might b

ared to th

rent effect

also be tha

this case

eject H0 in

y that has

ecause it i

d. For exa

ht be that t

We would w

e two drug

ypothesis.

tatement b

to the stat

n carried o

ect H0 in f

1", or even

not neces

there is n

ng the nul

ay be true.

ent of what

xample, in

be that the

at of the c

ts, on ave

at the new

we would

n favour of

been put

s to be us

ample, in a

the new dr

write

gs on aver

This is du

being teste

tement to

out is alwa

favour of H

n "Accept

ssarily me

not sufficie

l hypothes

t a statistic

n a clinical

e new dru

current dru

erage.

w drug is b

d write

f H1" or "D

forward,

sed as a

a clinical

rug is no

rage.

ue to the

ed,

be

ys given i

H1" or "Do

H1".

an that the

ent

sis then,

cal

trial of a

g has a

ug. We

better, on

o

n

e

The f

terms

not re

If we

null h

evide

sugg

S

A sim

distri

Exam

1. H0

2. H0

See a

C

A com

popu

Exam

1. X ~

2. X ~

See a

T

H1: the n

final concl

s of the nu

eject H0". W

conclude

hypothesis

ence again

ests that t

Simple Hy

mple hypot

bution com

mples

: X ~Bi(10

: X ~N(5,

also comp

Composit

mposite hy

lation dist

mples

~Bi(100,p

~N(0, )

also simpl

Type I Err

ew drug is

usion onc

ull hypothe

We never

"Do not re

s is true, it

nst H0 in fa

the alterna

ypothesis

thesis is a

mpletely.

00,1/2), i.e

20), i.e.

posite hyp

te Hypoth

ypothesis

tribution co

p) and H1:

and H1:

le hypothe

ror

s better th

ce the test

esis. We e

conclude

eject H0",

t only sugg

avour of H

ative hypo

s

a hypothes

e. p is spe

and ar

othesis.

hesis

is a hypot

ompletely.

p >0.5

unspeci

esis.

han the cu

has been

either "Rej

"Reject H

this does

gests that

H1. Rejectin

othesis ma

sis which s

ecified

re specifie

thesis whi

.

fied

rrent drug

n carried o

ect H0 in f

H1", or eve

not neces

there is n

ng the nul

ay be true.

specifies t

ed

ich does n

g, on avera

out is alwa

favour of H

n "Accept

ssarily me

not sufficie

l hypothes

the popula

not specify

age.

ys given i

H1" or "Do

t H1".

an that the

ent

sis then,

ation

y the

n

e

In a h

rejec

For e

that t

A typ

differ

The f

test:

A typ

impo

there

rejec

proba

The e

If we

as th

hypo

For a

the s

A typ

T

In a h

not re

hypothesis

ted when

example, in

the new dr

H0: there

pe I error w

rent effects

following t

Truth

H

H

pe I error is

rtant to av

efore adjus

ting the nu

ability of a

P(type I

exact prob

do not rej

e sample

thesis (es

any given s

maller the

pe I error c

Type II Er

hypothesis

ejected wh

s test, a ty

it is in fac

n a clinica

rug is no b

e is no diffe

would occu

s when in

table gives

Rejec

H0 Type I E

H1 Right de

s often co

void, than

sted so tha

ull hypothe

a type I err

error) =si

bability of

ject the nu

may not b

pecially if

set of data

e risk of on

can also b

rror

s test, a ty

hen it is in

ype I error

ct true; tha

al trial of a

better, on

erence be

ur if we co

fact there

s a summa

Decision

ct H0 Do

Error Rig

ecision Typ

nsidered t

a type II e

at there is

esis wrong

ror can be

gnificance

a type II e

ull hypothe

be big eno

the truth i

a, type I a

ne, the hig

e referred

ype II error

n fact false

occurs w

t is, H0 is w

new drug

average, t

etween the

oncluded t

e was no d

ary of pos

n

on't reject H

ght decision

pe II Error

to be more

error. The

a guaran

gly; this pr

precisely

e level =

error is gen

esis, it ma

ough to ide

is very clo

nd type II

gher the ris

to as an e

r occurs w

e. For exam

hen the nu

wrongly re

g, the null

than the c

e two drug

that the tw

difference

ssible resu

H0

e serious,

hypothes

teed 'low'

robability

y computed

nerally un

ay still be f

entify the f

ose to hypo

errors are

sk of the o

error of th

when the n

mple, in a

ull hypothe

ejected.

hypothesi

current dru

gs on aver

wo drugs p

between t

ults of any

and there

is test pro

probabilit

is never 0

d as

known.

false (a typ

falseness

othesis).

e inversely

other.

he first kind

null hypoth

clinical tri

esis is

s might be

ug; i.e.

rage.

produced

them.

hypothes

efore more

ocedure is

ty of

0. This

pe II error

of the nul

y related;

d.

hesis H0, is

ial of a ne

e

is

e

)

l

s

w

drug,

avera

A typ

produ

drugs

A typ

The p

by

A typ

Com

See a

T

A tes

used

our h

The c

mode

C

The c

of the

the n

The c

level

two-s

, the null h

age, than

H0: there

pe II error w

uced the s

s on avera

pe II error i

probability

and writte

P(type II

pe II error c

pare type

also powe

Test Stati

st statistic

to decide

hypothesis

choice of a

el and the

Critical Va

critical val

e test stati

ull hypoth

critical val

at which t

sided.

hypothesis

the curren

e is no diffe

would occ

same effec

age, when

is frequen

y of a type

en

error) =

can also b

I error.

er.

istic

is a quant

e whether

s test.

a test stat

hypothes

alue(s)

ue(s) for a

istic in a s

hesis is rej

ue for any

the test is

s might be

nt drug; i.e

erence be

cur if it was

ct, i.e. the

n in fact the

ntly due to

II error is

be referred

tity calcula

or not the

istic will de

es under q

a hypothes

ample is c

ected.

y hypothes

carried ou

e that the n

e.

etween the

s conclude

re is no di

ey produc

sample s

generally

d to as an

ated from

null hypo

epend on

question.

sis test is

compared

sis test de

ut, and wh

new drug i

e two drug

ed that the

ifference b

ced differe

izes being

y unknown

error of th

our samp

thesis sho

the assum

a thresho

to determ

epends on

hether the

is no bette

gs on aver

e two drug

between th

nt ones.

g too smal

n, but is sy

he second

le of data.

ould be rej

med proba

ld to whic

mine wheth

the signif

test is on

er, on

rage.

gs

he two

ll.

ymbolised

d kind.

. Its value

jected in

ability

h the valu

her or not

ficance

e-sided or

is

e

r

See a

C

The c

statis

is, the

one r

the o

mem

mem

See a

See a

S

The s

of wr

It is t

to the

signif

hypo

inadv

The s

Usua

P

also critica

Critical Re

critical reg

stic for whi

e sample

region (the

other will n

ber of the

ber of the

also critica

also test s

Significan

significanc

rongly reje

he probab

e consequ

ficance lev

thesis and

vertently m

significanc

Significa

ally, the sig

P-Value

al region.

egion

gion CR, o

ich the nu

space for

e critical re

ot. So, if t

critical re

critical re

al value.

statistic.

nce Level

ce level of

ecting the n

bility of a ty

uences of

vel as sma

d to preve

making fals

ce level is

nce Level

gnificance

or rejection

ll hypothe

the test s

egion) will

the observ

egion, we c

egion then

l

f a statistic

null hypot

ype I error

such an e

all as poss

nt, as far a

se claims.

usually de

l =P(type

e level is c

n region R

esis is reje

tatistic is p

lead us to

ved value

conclude "

we conclu

cal hypoth

hesis H0, i

r and is se

error. That

sible in ord

as possibl

enoted by

I error) =

hosen to b

RR, is a se

cted in a h

partitioned

o reject th

of the test

"Reject H0

ude "Do n

hesis test i

if it is in fa

et by the in

is, we wa

der to prot

le, the inve

y

be 0.05 (o

t of values

hypothesis

d into two

e null hyp

t statistic i

0"; if it is n

not reject H

s a fixed p

act true.

nvestigato

ant to mak

tect the nu

estigator f

or equivale

s of the te

s test. Tha

regions;

pothesis H

is a

ot a

H0".

probability

or in relatio

ke the

ull

from

ently, 5%).

st

at

0,

y

on

.

The p

proba

extre

true.

It is t

true.

It is e

rejec

signif

That

level,

Smal

smal

indica

rathe

P

The p

rejec

corre

In oth

comm

a typ

The m

want

O

probability

ability of g

eme than t

he probab

equal to th

t the null h

ficance lev

is, if the n

, this woul

ll p-values

ler it is, th

ates the s

er than sim

Power

power of a

t the null h

ect decisio

her words

mitting a ty

e II error f

Power =

maximum

a test to h

One-sided

y value (p-

getting a va

hat observ

bility of wro

he significa

hypothesis

vel of our

null hypoth

ld be repo

s suggest t

e more co

trength of

mply conclu

a statistica

hypothesis

n.

, the powe

ype II erro

from 1, us

1 - P(type

power a t

have high

d Test

-value) of a

alue of the

ved by cha

ongly rejec

ance level

s. The p-v

test and, i

hesis were

orted as "p

that the nu

onvincing i

f evidence

uding "Rej

al hypothe

s when it i

er of a hyp

or. It is calc

ually expr

e II error) =

test can ha

power, clo

a statistica

e test stati

ance alon

cting the n

of the tes

value is co

if it is sma

e to be reje

p <0.05".

ull hypothe

is the reje

for say, re

ject H0' or

sis test m

s actually

pothesis te

culated by

ressed as:

=

ave is 1, t

ose to 1.

al hypothe

istic as ex

ne, if the n

null hypoth

st for whic

ompared w

aller, the re

ected at th

esis is unl

ction of th

ejecting th

r "Do not r

easures th

y false - tha

est is the p

y subtracti

:

he minimu

esis test is

xtreme as

ull hypoth

hesis if it i

h we wou

with the ac

esult is sig

he 5% sign

likely to be

he null hyp

he null hyp

reject H0".

he test's a

at is, to m

probability

ng the pro

um is 0. Id

s the

or more

esis H0, is

s in fact

ld only jus

ctual

gnificant.

nficance

e true. The

pothesis. It

pothesis H

ability to

ake a

y of not

obability o

deally we

s

st

e

t

H0,

f

A one

which

of the

In oth

less t

critica

A one

The c

the p

test.

Exam

Supp

avera

again

Eithe

Presu

altern

be le

they

Yet a

leadi

again

Here

in a b

would

less t

T

e-sided te

h we can r

e probabili

her words

than the c

al value of

e-sided te

choice bet

purpose of

mple

pose we w

age, 50 m

H0: =5

nst

H1: <5

er of these

umably, w

native hyp

ss than 50

get the co

another alt

ng this tim

H0: =5

nst

H1: not

, nothing s

box; only t

d know tha

than or gre

Two-Sided

st is a sta

reject the

ity distribu

, the critic

critical valu

f the test.

st is also

tween a o

f the inves

wanted to t

atches in

50,

50 or H1:

two altern

we would w

pothesis si

0 matches

orrect num

ternative h

me to a two

50,

t equal to

specific ca

that, if we

at the ave

eater than

d Test

tistical hyp

null hypot

ution.

al region f

ue of the te

referred to

ne-sided a

tigation or

test a man

a box. We

>50

native hyp

want to tes

nce it wou

s, on avera

mber of ma

hypothesis

o-sided tes

50

an be said

could reje

erage num

n 50.

pothesis te

thesis, H0

for a one-s

est, or the

o as a one

and a two-

r prior reas

nufacturers

e could se

potheses w

st the null

uld be use

age, in a b

atches in a

s could be

st:

d about the

ect the nul

ber of ma

est in whic

are locate

sided test

e set of va

e-tailed tes

-sided tes

sons for u

s claim tha

et up the fo

would lead

hypothesi

eful to know

box (no on

a box or m

e tested ag

e average

l hypothes

atches in a

ch the val

ed entirely

is the set

lues great

st of signif

st is determ

using a one

at there ar

ollowing hy

d to a one-

is against

w if there

ne would c

more).

gainst the

number o

sis in our t

a box is lik

ues for

y in one tai

t of values

ter than th

ficance.

mined by

e-sided

re, on

ypotheses

-sided tes

the first

is likely to

complain i

same null

of matches

test, we

kely to be

il

s

he

s

st.

o

f

l,

s

A two

which

proba

In oth

less t

a sec

A two

The c

by th

test.

Exam

Supp

avera

again

Eithe

Presu

altern

be le

they

Yet a

leadi

again

Here

in a b

would

less t

O

o-sided tes

h we can r

ability dist

her words

than a firs

cond critic

o-sided tes

choice bet

e purpose

mple

pose we w

age, 50 m

H0: =5

nst

H1: <5

er of these

umably, w

native hyp

ss than 50

get the co

another alt

ng this tim

H0: =5

nst

H1: not

, nothing s

box; only t

d know tha

than or gre

One Sam

st is a stat

reject the

ribution.

, the critic

t critical v

al value o

st is also r

tween a o

e of the inv

wanted to t

atches in

50,

50 or H1:

two altern

we would w

pothesis si

0 matches

orrect num

ternative h

me to a two

50,

t equal to

specific ca

that, if we

at the ave

eater than

ple t-test

tistical hyp

null hypot

al region f

alue of the

f the test.

referred to

ne-sided t

vestigation

test a man

a box. We

>50

native hyp

want to tes

nce it wou

s, on avera

mber of ma

hypothesis

o-sided tes

50

an be said

could reje

erage num

n 50.

pothesis te

thesis, H0

for a two-s

e test and

o as a two

test and a

n or prior r

nufacturers

e could se

potheses w

st the null

uld be use

age, in a b

atches in a

s could be

st:

d about the

ect the nul

ber of ma

est in whic

are locate

sided test

the set of

-tailed tes

two-sided

reasons fo

s claim tha

et up the fo

would lead

hypothesi

eful to know

box (no on

a box or m

e tested ag

e average

l hypothes

atches in a

ch the valu

ed in both

is the set

f values g

st of signifi

d test is de

or using a

at there ar

ollowing hy

d to a one-

is against

w if there

ne would c

more).

gainst the

number o

sis in our t

a box is lik

ues for

tails of the

of values

reater tha

icance.

etermined

one-sided

re, on

ypotheses

-sided tes

the first

is likely to

complain i

same null

of matches

test, we

kely to be

e

n

d

s

st.

o

f

l,

s

A one

mean

from

The n

That

unkn

This

hypo

T

A two

mean

indep

When

varia

The n

That

popu

altern

e sample

n where th

an underl

null hypoth

H0: =

is, the sam

own varia

null hypot

theses, de

H1: is n

H1: >

H1: <

Two Sam

o sample t

n where th

pendent o

n carrying

nces for th

null hypoth

H0: 1 =

is, the two

lation. Thi

native hyp

H1: 1 is

H1: 1 >

H1: 1 <

t-test is a

he data are

ying norm

hesis for t

0, where

mple has

nce (whic

thesis, H0

epending

not equal t

ple t-test

t-test is a

he data are

bservation

out a two

he two po

hesis for t

2

o samples

is null hyp

potheses, d

not equal

2

2

hypothesi

e a random

mal distribu

he one sa

0 is know

been draw

ch therefor

is tested a

on the que

to

hypothesi

e collected

ns, each fr

o sample t-

pulations

he two sa

s have bot

pothesis is

depending

to 2

is test for

m sample

ution N(,

ample t-tes

wn.

wn from a

re has to b

against on

estion pos

s test for a

d from two

rom an un

-test, it is

are equal

mple t-tes

h been dr

s tested ag

g on the q

answering

of indepe

), wher

st is:

populatio

be estimat

ne of the fo

sed:

answering

o random

nderlying n

usual to a

, i.e.

st is:

rawn from

gainst one

uestion po

g question

endent obs

re is un

n of given

ted from th

ollowing a

g question

samples o

normal dis

assume tha

the same

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