Exercise 1

For this analysis we have chosen the following macroeconomic indicators for 2011 for the Asian
countries for which the data was taken from the International Monetary Fund website:
- !ross domestic "roduct based on "urchasing-"ower-"arity #$$$% "er ca"ita !&$ 2011
#International '(&%
-)*"ort volume of goods and services 2011 #+ of !&$%
-Im"ort volume of goods and services 2011 #+ of !&$%
,he initial collected data was for all -- countries. but as shown below for the year 2011 the data
for Ira/ is incom"lete as due to the "olitical situation in the country there were no Im"orts or
)*"orts of goods and services. therefore the analysis has been done for the rest of the -0
countries1
No.
Crt
.
Country
Gross domestic product
based on purchasing-power-
parity (PPP) per capita GDP
2011 (nternationa! "#D)
$%port &o!ume
o' goods and
ser&ices 2011
(( o' GDP)
mport &o!ume
o' goods and
ser&ices 2011
(( o' GDP)
1 )ahrain 2*+,,.-0 -..,0 -11../
2 )ang!adesh 1.....2 1+.** 0.+.
, )hutan -*+*.+1 -+.-/ ..1,
+ )runei Darussa!am +0*10.,+ ,.0* ,.0*
- Cambodia 22-1.1+ -,.,* 1.00
. China /2//./2 1-./2 1+.00
*
Democratic 1epub!ic
o' 2imor-3este
,0,1.1+ +.** ,1.-.
/ ndia ,.0/.20 1+.0- 11.11
0 ndonesia +.-*.1, ..-1 0../
10 Iraq 3825.78
11
s!amic 1epub!ic o'
4'ghanistan
0.0.** +.-0 2.-0
12
s!amic 1epub!ic o'
ran
10*0*.0+ -0.,2 --.20
1, srae! ,0,+*.,2 +.// ,.--
1+ 5apan ,+.+-.00 +.*2 10.10
1- 5ordan -*-0.2/ ..+, 0..-
1. 6a7a8hstan 1,+/+.0/ ,-.21 1+.-/
1* 6orea ,1+10.+* 11.1/ 11..,
1/ 6uwait ,0+0*.*1 +.,, ..,,
10 6yrgy7 1epub!ic 2,.,.21 11.*1 2.0/
20
3ao Peop!e9s
Democratic 1epub!ic
2-0*.-0 11.20 1..00
0
No.
Crt
.
Country
Gross domestic product
based on purchasing-power-
parity (PPP) per capita GDP
2011 (nternationa! "#D)
$%port &o!ume
o' goods and
ser&ices 2011
(( o' GDP)
mport &o!ume
o' goods and
ser&ices 2011
(( o' GDP)
21 3ebanon 1---*.2. 0.+, 2..0
22 :a!aysia 1-,/+.-. -0.0. 1.0,
2, :a!di&es 000-.01 0.0. ..02
2+ :ongo!ia +,/,.-0 1-./- 2/.,+
2- :yanmar 1,0..-0 2.10 22../
2. Nepa! 1,2/.0* -1.01 -1.01
2* ;man 2-0-,../ +.,+ 2-..,
2/ Pa8istan 2/-1.0. 2.0+ *.*0
20 Phi!ippines ,/00.10 -.,/ ,.1.
,0 <atar 10,2*-.*0 ,0.12 2./-
,1 1epub!ic o' =emen 2.,-.02 -1.2- 1-.0-
,2 1ussia 1./+0./0 2.++ 1/.*,
,, #audi 4rabia 2-,+-.+0 12.0. 11.0.
,+ #ingapore -012,..0 ..2. *.,*
,- #ri 3an8a -.11./2 /.., *..*
,. #yrian 4rab 1epub!ic -20,.,- 1.*+ +.-,
,*
2aiwan Pro&ince o'
China
,*20/.*1 *.+* ..2.
,/ 2a>i8istan 202/.,* /.*, ..-/
,0 2hai!and 0-0/.01 ,.0/ ,.-0
+0 2ur8ey 1+0*..0, ..21 /.+,
+1 2ur8menistan *,-*..0 2,.** 1,.*+
+2
"nited 4rab
$mirates
+0+00.-2 -..-0 -2.0,
+, "7be8istan ,2+/..2 ,.0* 20.10
++ ?ietnam ,,2..,1 1.+2 +.02
As the chosen variables have the most com"lete and u" to date data we have decided to use them
as the analysis would be more accurate1
1
In Fig1 1 it is "resented the amount of !&$ "er ca"ita for the -0 countries:
As you can see in the chart. not all the countries have a good economic welfare. as the lowest
value for the !&$ "er ca"ita in 2011 is 230144- International '(&. for the Islamic 5e"ublic of
Afghanistan. while the the highest value is for 6atar. where the !&$ "er ca"ita is 1002471327
International '(&1
In the following chart. Fig12 it is re"resented the re"artition of the "ercentage from !&$ for 2011
for all the countries in Asia for the )*"ort volume of goods and services:
As indicated above in the chart. the country with the lowest "ercentage from !&$ in the e*"ort
volume of goods and services in Asia for 2011 is 'nited Arab )mirates with -31-22+ and also
the country with the highest "ercentage from !&$ in the e*"ort volume of goods and services in
Asia for 2011 is 8a9akhstan1
2
:hen s"eaking of im"orts. the situation is the same as "er !&$ and )*"orts volume. as the
below chart. Fig10. shows that the situation of the Im"orts volume for goods and services for
2011 for the countries in Asia is very fluctuating as some countries have high "ercentages from
the !&$ in the im"orts and some very small "ercentages. even negative1
In the following charts it is shown that most of the countries in Asia. for 2011. have a very low
!&$. e*"ort and im"ort volume of goods and services1
For !$&. the values for most of the countries are very high #Fig1- and Fig17%. as indicated in the
charts below1 ,he gra"hical re"resentation is based on fre/uency intervals1

,he !&$ average for 2011 is 1300-1;2 international '(& and the standard deviation for the
!&$ is 20---142 International '(&. therefore on average the value of the !&$ for 2011 for the
countries in Asia can be with higher or lower with 20---142 International '(& than the average
of 1300-1;2 international '(& with a small variation of 01;;+. which means that 2-17+ of the
countries in Asia the !&$ values can be between -110117 International '(& and 2;773130
International '(& #below table%1
,
GDP per capita
(PPP) 2011
distribution (no. o'
countries) -
nternationa! "#D 3e&e!
33 "3
@igh
:ediu
m
#ma!!
?ery
high
?ery
sma!!
Grand
2ota!
0
2-00
0 ,1 ,1
2-000
-000
0 10 10
-0000
*-00
0 1 1
*-000
1000
00 0 0
100000
12-0
00 1 1
Grand 2ota! 0 1 10 1 ,1 +,
If we consider the fre/uency intervals. re"resented in the table above and also in chart Fig1- and
Fig17. we can say that for an average !&$ of 21;02100 International '(&. with 27+ "robability.
the !&$ values for 2011 for 2-17+ of the countries in Asia can be found between 722210;
International '(& and 21222137 International '(& and that that these values can be higher or
lower than the average with 1;327124 International '(& with a small variation of 01;3+1
<ooking closer at the )*"ort volume of goods and services for 2011 in Asia. we can say that the
average "ercentage from the e*"orts is 3137+ and that on average. 2-17+ of the values for the
e*"ort volume can be found between 1177+ and 11147+ as the values for each country are
higher or lower than the average e*"ort volume with ;17-+. with a small variation of 01--+ as
re"resented in the below table1
$%port &o!ume o' goods
and ser&ices 2011 (no.
o' countries) - ( o' GDP 3e&e!
33 "3
@igh
:ediu
m
#ma!!
?ery
high
?ery
sma!!
Gran
d
2ota!
-..- 2 11 11
2 10.- 21 21
10.- 10 / /
10 2*.- 1 1
2*.- ,. 2 2
Grand 2ota! 1 / 21 2 11 +,
+
As you can see. for a very large number of countries the e*"ort volume of goods and services is
either small or very small1 #Fig13 and Fig14%

=n the other side. for the im"ort volume of goods and services in 2011 in Asia. for most of the
countries the volume is small and medium. but we need to take into consideration the fact that
the analy9ed data for the im"ort volume of goods and services in 2011 also contains negative
values which also im"act the average and also the value of the !&$ #fig1; and Fig12%1

,herefore. the average "ercentage of the im"orts of goods and services for 2011 is ;17-+ and
that on average. 2-17+ of the values for the im"ort volume can be found between 0100+ and
10143+ as the values for each country are higher or lower than the average im"ort volume with
;142+ with a small variation of 0107+1
mport &o!ume o'
goods and ser&ices
2011 (no. o'
countries) - ( o'
GDP 3e&e!
33 "3
@igh :edium #ma!!
?ery
high
?ery
sma!!
Grand
2ota!
-12 -2 , ,
-2 / 22 22
/ 1/ 12 12
-
1/ 2/ + +
2/ ,/ 2 2
Grand 2ota! + 12 22 2 , +,
As the highest number of countries has a small im"ort volume of goods and services. and for the
fre/uency intervals. for the >(MA<<? value. the interval contains both negative and "ositive
values1
For all 0 macroeconomic values it can be concluded that that there are differences between all
the statistical indicators use to analy9e them as when calculating the average value for each of
them. and the standard deviation from the average and also the coefficient of variation. because
for the fre/uency intervals. it was used as data for the analysis. the mid"oint of the interval.
meaning that not all the values in one interval are e/ual to the mid"oint1
.
Exercise 2
$roceeding further with the analysis. in the below chart. it is shown a gra"hical re"resentation of
the how the !&$ is influences by the e*"orts #Fig110 and below table%1
,herefore for a 27+ confidence interval the sloa". we can conclude that for each country for
which the )*"ort volume in goods and services will increase by 1+. the !&$ will also increase
by -32127 International '(&1
,herefore. if we should increase the e*"orts with the average "ercentage for the e*"ort volume.
3137+. the "redicted !&$ will be 10231102 International '(&1
P-value
Lower
95%
Upper
95%
ntercept
0.001.
**
-200.,/+,
21
21222..-
+-.
$%port
&o!ume o'
goods and
ser&ices 2011
(( o' GDP)
0.21+0
2-
-
2*/./.0,.
1
120,.,/,
..+
As the $-value is 0121-227 which is bigger than 0107 this indicates that the relationshi" between
!&$ and the )*"ort volume of goods and services for 2011 in Asia is not linear1
Regression
Statistics
:u!tip!e 1 0.10,02212,
1 #Auare ,.*,(
*
4d>usted 1 #Auare 0.01,**.01.
#tandard $rror 20,0,.+0.0-
;bser&ations +,
As the coefficient of correlation has a very small value of 0112 and the coefficient of
determination as well. 0140+. this indicates that we have a very "oor relationshi" between the
!&$ and the )*"ort volume of goods and services for 2011 in Asia1
,aking a look at the relationshi" between the Im"ort volume of goods and services. we can say
that for a 27+ confidence interval the sloa". for each country for which the Im"ort volume of
goods and services will increase by 1+. the !&$ will also decrease by -722130-34-1
International '(&1
,herefore. if we should increase the im"orts with the average "ercentage for the im"ort volume.
;17-+. the "redicted !&$ will be 1300-1;2 International '(&1
In the below gra"hical re"resentation of the relationshi" between the Im"ort volume of goods
and serviced in 2011 in Asia and the !&$ in 2011 in Asia we can conclude that the date is not
homogenous.
In the ne*t table we have some im"ortant data. like the $-value and also the value of the
coefficient of correlation and the coefficient of determination:
P-value
Lower
95%
Upper
95%
ntercept
2.11.0-$-
0-
120-2.,,+
.1
20-+/.10
+.+
/
mport &o!ume o'
goods and
ser&ices 2011 ((
o' GDP)
0.1-0*--
00*
-
12+,.+**1
1-
10/.20**
..*
As the $-value is higher 0107. it can be concluded that the relationshi" between the im"ort
volume of goods and services in 2011 in Asia and the !&$ for 2011 in Asia is not linear1
Regression
Statistics
:u!tip!e 1
0.222020*1
,
1 #Auare +.0*(
4d>usted 1
#Auare 0.02.-1-++
#tandard $rror
201*1./+*,
*
;bser&ations +,
As both the coefficient of correlation #0122% and the coefficient of determination #-124+% have
very small values. we can conclude that there is a very "oor relationshi" between the !&$ and
the Im"ort volume of goods and services for 2011 in Asia1
In conclusion we can say that the analy9ed data for the Im"ort and )*"ort volume of goods and
services in 2011 for the countries in Asia has a big influence in the value of the !&$ as it will
increase #when the e*"ort volume increases% or decrease #when the im"ort volume will increase%
according to the analysis I the case study. although the relationshi" between the 0 variable is very
"oor and not linear as the data series is not homogeneous1
0
Exercise3
After the 5egression analysis was done for the !&$ and !rowth rate of number of car
registrations in the automobile industry. we can conclude that 02+ of the car registrations are
influenced by the !rowth of the !&$ #5 (/uare @ 0.,22-+*/*+)
Regression
Statistics
:u!tip!e 1 0.-.*0,20/+
1 #Auare 0.,22-+*/*+
4d>usted 1
#Auare 0.20,00,+,+
#tandard
$rror 10.02.,+*02
;bser&ation
s 2-
After the 5egression analysis was done for the !rowth rate of number of car registrations in the
automobile industry and for ()A,. we can conclude that 12+ of the car registrations for ()A,
are influenced by the !rowth of the !rowth rate of number of car registrations in the automobile
Industry #5 (/uare @ 0.101112+0-).
Regression
Statistics
:u!tip!e 1
0.+,*1.+
1-2
1 #Auare
0.101112
+0-
4d>usted 1
#Auare
0.0*---*
1,/
#tandard $rror
1-.++10+
0*-
;bser&ations 0
,herefore if the !&$ in ("ain grows with at least 02+ this will determine a growth in the car
registration "ercentage for ()A, of at least 12+
10