CONTENTS
Course
policies
and
Information
...................................................................................................................................
2
Lecture
1
(August
27):
Introduction
..............................................................................................................................
3
Lectures
2-3
(August
29
and
September
3):
Crises:
Historical
Context
........................................................................
3
Lecture
4
(September
8):
The
Great
Depression
..........................................................................................................
4
Lecture
5
(September
10):
The
Modern
Crisis:
The
Great
Moderation
and
the
Great
Recession
...............................
5
Lecture
6
(September
15):
Lessons
learned:
Fiscal
Multipliers
.....................................................................................
5
Lecture
7
(September
17):
Debt
in
the
Aftermath
of
Crises
.........................................................................................
6
Lecture
8
(September
22):
Lessons
Learned:
Monetary
Policy
.....................................................................................
7
Lecture
9
(September
24
):
Macro
Effects
of
Financial
Regulations
............................................................................
7
Lectures
10
(September
29):
Global
Imbalances
..........................................................................................................
8
Lecture
11
(October
1):
Unemployment:
Jobless
Recoveries
and
the
Global
Labor
Arbitrage
....................................
9
Lecture
12
(October
6):
Productivity
............................................................................................................................
9
Lecture
13
(October
8):
Mid-term
Examination
.........................................................................................................
10
Lecture
14
(October
13):
The
Globalization
Debate
...................................................................................................
10
Lecture
15
(October
15):
Inflation
..............................................................................................................................
10
Lecture
16
(October
20):
Japan:
Zombies,
Lost
Decade
and
Beyond
......................................................................
11
Lecture
17
(October
27):
Europe:
Reform
or
Decline?
...............................................................................................
12
Lecture
18
(October
29):
United
States:
A
New
Generation
of
Zombies
and
Another
Lost
Decade?
........................
12
Lecture
19
(November
3):
China
.................................................................................................................................
13
Lecture
20
(November
5):
Emerging
Markets:
Export-led
Growth
Models
...............................................................
13
Lecture
21
(November
10):
Emerging
Markets:
Post-Socialst
Transitions
.................................................................
14
Lecture
22
(November
12):
The
Growth
Debate:
Quanity
vs.
Quality?
.....................................................................
14
Lecture
23
(November
17):
Demographic
Challenges:
Aging
and
Retirement
Funding
............................................
15
Lectures
24-25
(November
19
and
December
1):
Inequality..15
Lecture
26
(December
3):
Summing
Up
.....................................................................................................................
16
There
will
be
five
homework
assignments,
which
collectively
count
for
30%
of
your
grade.
The
midterm
will
count
for
25%
of
your
grade.
The
final
exam
will
count
for
35%
of
your
grade.
Participation
in
classroom
discussions
will
count
for
10%
of
your
grade.
NOTE:
The
grading
will
not
be
on
a
curve.
Homework
assignments
are
3-page
op-ed
style
analytical
essays
that
argue
the
pro
and
con
sides
of
selected
policy
issues;
format
will
be
detailed
in
class.
Readings.
The
course
has
an
extensive
reading
list.
You
are
responsible
to
read
only
the
starred
papers
(indicated
in
the
reading
list
as
*).
The
rest
of
the
reading
is
optional
(we
encourage
you
to
read
it
but
do
not
require
it).
Some
of
the
papers
and
books
are
very
technical
we
will
explain
in
the
class
the
most
important
takeaways
from
them
and
will
indicate
the
parts
that
can
be
read
without
additional
preparation.
If
you
are
having
trouble
accessing
the
readings,
please
contact
carla.mills@yale.edu
.
Communication
policy.
As
this
is
a
large
class,
your
primary
contact
will
be
your
TF.
We
encourage
you
to
speak
to
your
TF
about
all
of
the
issues
and
concerns
that
arise.
If
you
want
to
come
to
our
office
hours
you
will
have
to
do
it
in
two
steps.
First,
please
come
to
the
office
hour
of
your
TF
and
try
to
resolve
the
issue
with
him/her.
Second,
if
the
issue
or
question
is
not
resolved,
please
schedule
a
time
to
meet
with
the
professors
during
our
office
hours.
Please
note
that
due
to
capacity
constraints
we
will
not
be
able
to
accommodate
unscheduled
walk-ins
to
the
office
hours.
-
-
Prof.
Roach
will
have
office
hours
on
MW
from
1-2:30PM
in
307
Horchow
Hall.
Prof.
Tsyvinski
office
hours
are
by
appointment
only.
Please
email
your
TF
to
schedule.
Carmen
Reinhardt
and
Ken
Rogoff,
This
Time
Is
Different:
A
Panoramic
View
of
Eight
Centuries
of
Financial
Crises,
Princeton
University
Press,
2009
(Optional,
but
highly
recommended)
*
Carmen
Reinhardt
and
Ken
Rogoff
The
Aftermath
of
Financial
Crises
(with
Carmen
M.
Reinhart),
AMERICAN
E CONOMIC
R EVIEW
99
(May
2009)
466-472.
Also
available
as
NBER
Working
Paper
No.
14656,
January
2009
*
Robert
Barro
and
Jose
Ursua,
2008.
Macroeconomic
Crises
since
1870,
NBER
Working
Paper
No.
13940
(Some
parts
of
these
paper
are
quite
technical,
you
can
skip
them).
Barro,
Robert
J.,
and
Jos
F.
Ursa.
Stock-market
crashes
and
depressions.
No.
w14760.
National
Bureau
of
Economic
Research,
2009.
O.M.W.
Sprague(1910)
History
of
crises
under
the
national
banking
system.
(A
great
but
quite
long
book;
not
required).
Crisis
of
1907:
*
Ellis
Tallman
and
Jon
Moen,
Lessons
from
the
Panic
of
1907,
Federal
Reserve
Bank
of
Atlanta,
1990.
Robert
Brunner
and
Sean
Carr,
The
Panic
of
1907:
Lessons
Learned
from
the
Market's
Perfect
Storm
(A
very
interesting
book,
suggested
but
not
required).
LECTURE
4
(SEPTEMBER
8):
THE
GREAT
DEPRESSION
Issue:
Did
the
Great
Depression
end
in
1933?
What
caused
a
more
prolonged
Great
Depression?
Did
Roosevelts
policies
extend
the
Depression?
Modern-day
policy
activism
was
borne
out
of
the
Keynesian
response
to
the
1930s.
Yet
the
world
and
its
major
economies
has
changed
dramatically
over
the
ensuing
80
years.
Are
we
trapped
in
a
past
that
limits
our
understanding
of
a
new
and
very
different
world?
An
introduction
to
Business
Cycle
Accounting
as
a
diagnostic
macroeconomic
tool.
*Harold
Cole
and
Lee
Ohanian,
How
Government
Prolonged
the
Depression,
Wall
Street
Journal,
February
2,
2009.
*
Lee
Ohanian
Herbert
Hoover
and
the
Start
of
the
Great
Depression,
VoxEU.
*
Harold
Cole
and
Lee
Ohanian,
The
Great
Depression
in
the
United
States
From
A
Neoclassical
Perspective,
Federal
Reserve
Bank
of
Minneapolis
Quarterly
Review,
Winter
1999,
vol.
23,
no.
1,
pp.
224.
(Only
pages
1-4
are
required
but
you
can
read
the
rest,
skipping
the
formulas)
More
technical
papers
(not
required):
V.V.
Chari,
Ellen
McGrattan,
and
Patrick
Kehoe,
Accounting
for
the
Great
Depression,
Federal
Reserve
Bank
of
Minneapolis
Quarterly
Review,
Spring
2003,
Vol.
27,
No.
2,
pp.
28.
(The
paper
is
somewhat
technical,
but
you
can
read
abstract
and
intro.)
Timothy
Kehoe
and
Edward
Prescott,
2007,
Great
Depressions
of
the
XXth
century.
LECTURE
5
(SEPTEMBER
10):
THE
MODERN
CRISIS:
THE
GREAT
MODERATION
AND
THE
GREAT
RECESSION
Issue:
What
are
the
main
macroeconomic
factors
behind
the
Great
Recession?
Were
financial
frictions
the
main
culprit?
The
role
of
uncertainty.
Did
anti-crisis
policies
and
their
pronouncement
worsen
the
crisis?
What
was
the
impact
of
the
crisis
on
international
trade?
As
financial
systems
and
instruments
become
more
complex
and
as
the
world
economy
becomes
more
interdependent,
are
we
doomed
to
an
ever-
increasing
frequency
and
severity
of
crises?
HOMEWORK
ASSIGNMENT
#1
IS
DUE
*
Alan
Greenspan,
The
Crisis,
Brookings
Papers
on
Economic
Activity,
Spring
2010.
*
Lee
Ohanian,
The
Economic
Crisis
from
a
Neoclassical
Perspective,
Journal
of
Economic
Perspectives,
Fall
2010.
Also
(You
can
read
this
paper
skipping
the
formulas)
*
The
Economist,
Wasted
potential:
Counting
the
long-term
costs
of
the
financial
crisis,
Jun
14th
2014
*
Jason
Furman,
Whatever
Happened
to
the
Great
Moderation?
April
10,
2014
*
Robert
Hall,
2014,
Quantifying
the
Lasting
Harm
to
the
U.S.
Economy
from
the
Financial
Crisis,
NBER
Working
Paper
20183,
May
2014,
NBER
Macro
Annual
2014,
forthcoming.
(Pages
1-6
are
required
reading,
the
rest
will
be
discussed
in
the
class)
G
Gorton,
A
Metrick,
2012
Getting
Up
to
Speed
on
the
Financial
Crisis:
A
One-Weekend-Reader's
Guide,
Journal
of
Economic
Literature
*
Andrei
Levchenko,
Logan
Lewis,
Linda
Tesar,
The
collapse
of
US
trade:
In
search
of
the
smoking
gun
VoxEU,
27
November
2009
LECTURE
6
(SEPTEMBER
15):
LESSONS
LEARNED:
FISCAL
MULTIPLIERS
Issue:
During
the
crisis,
policymakers
turned
to
old-fashioned
Keynesian
models.
An
important
presumption
is
that
the
fiscal
multiplier
is
high
as
large
as
1.5.
Yet
was
increased
government
spending
a
failure,
especially,
considering
that
the
public
debt
dramatically
increased?
Policy
lags,
rational
expectations,
and
Ricardian
equivalence
all
raise
serious
questions
about
the
wisdom
and
efficacy
of
counter-cyclical
fiscal
policy.
Does
fine
tuning
work
in
steering
large
economies?
The
austerity
debate.
Conclusions
on
the
size
of
the
fiscal
multiplier?
*
Barro,
Robert
"The
Stimulus
Evidence
One
Year
On,"
T HE
W ALL
S TREET
JOURNAL,
February
23,
2010
*
Barro,
Robert
Stimulus
Spending
Doesnt
Work,"
(with
C.J.
Redlick)
T HE
W ALL
S TREET
J OURNAL,
October
1,
2009
*
Stephen
S.
Roach,
Asias
Take
on
Austerity,
Project
Syndicate,
February
2012
*
Valerie
Ramey,
2011
Identifying
Government
Spending
Shocks:
It's
All
in
the
Timing,
Quarterly
Journal
of
Economics
February
2011.
(Read
the
paper,
skipping
the
technical
parts)
The
rest
of
the
papers
are
quite
technical
and
will
be
discussed
in
the
lecture.
Valerie
Ramey
and
Sarah
Zubairy
Government
Spending
Multipliers
in
Good
Times
and
in
Bad:
Evidence
from
U.S.
Historical
Data
,
2014.
LECTURE
9
(SEPTEMBER
24
):
MACRO
EFFECTS
OF
FINANCIAL
REGULATIONS
Issue:
The
fundamental
principles
of
financial
regulation.
The
crisis-prone
regulatory
fix
is
inherently
backward
looking.
It
addresses
the
problems
of
the
last
crisis
never
the
next
one.
What
is
the
right
balance
between
stabilization
policy
and
macro-prudential
regulations?
Financial
regulations
reduce
both
volatility
and
the
number
of
black
swans
but
what
are
their
effects
on
growth?
Dangers
of
overregulation.
HOMEWORK
ASSIGNMENT
#2
IS
DUE
*
Stephen
S.
Roach,
The
Post-Crisis
Fix:
Regulatory
or
Monetary
Policy
Remedies?
paper
presented
at
a
conference
sponsored
by
the
Reserve
Bank
of
India,
Mumbai,
February
2010.
* Marcus Brunnermeier, Andrew Crockett, Charles Goodhart, Avi Persaud and Hyun Shin The
Fundamental Principles of Financial Regulation, 11th Geneva Report on the World Economy, 2009 (Only
the Executive Summary is required, the rest is optional).
Ragu
Rajan
and
Luigi
Zingales,
Saving
capitalism
from
capitalists,
2003
(Optional
but
highly
recommended)
The
rest
of
the
papers
are
technical
and
will
be
discussed
in
the
lecture.
Garey
Ramey
and
Valery
Ramey,
1995,
Cross-Country
Evidence
on
the
Link
Between
Volatility
and
Growth,
American
Economic
Review.
Romain
Ranciere,
Aaron
Tornell,
and
Frank
Westermann,
Systemic
Crises
and
Growth,
Quarterly
Journal
of
Economics,
2007.
LECTURES
10
(SEPTEMBER
29):
GLOBAL
IMBALANCES
Issue
:
Linkages
between
asset-dependent
growth,
income-based
saving,
and
current-account
imbalances.
Are
global
imbalances
malign
or
benign?
Local
vs.
Global
policy
architecture.
The
risks
of
trade
frictions
and
protectionism.
Global
imbalances
and
the
Crisis
of
2008-09.
Dark
matter
and
Bretton
Woods
II.
What
can
(will)
unravel
global
imbalances?
The
exorbitant
privilege
of
the
US
what
is
it
and
is
it
overstated?
Effects
of
financial
regulations
and
financial
market
development
around
the
world
on
global
imbalances.
*
Michael
P.
Dooley,
David
Folkerts-Landau,
Peter
M.
Garber,
Bretton
Woods
II
Still
Defines
the
International
Monetary
System,
NBER
Working
Paper
No.
14731,
February
2009.
*
Barry
J.
Eichengreen,
Exorbitant
Privilege:
The
Rise
and
Fall
of
the
Dollar
and
the
Future
of
the
International
Financial
System,
January
2011.
*
Ricardo
Haussman
and
Federico
Sturznegger,
The
Implications
of
Dark
Matter
for
Assessing
the
US
External
Imbalance,
Harvard
CID
Working
Paper
No.
137,
November
2006.
*
Stephen
S.
Roach,
The
Perils
of
Asymmetrical
Rebalancing,
Handlesblatt,
July
2009.
*
Stephen
S.
Roach,
Americas
Other
87
Deficits,
Project
Syndicate,
October
2011
*
Frank
Warnock,
Global
Imbalances:
The
Next
Crisis?
AEI
*
Pierre-Olivier
Gourinchas
and
Helene
Rey,
External
Adjustment,
Global
Imbalances
and
Valuation
Effects,
Chapter
for
the
Handbook
of
International
Economics
eds
G.
Gopinath,
H.
Helpman
and
K.
Rogoff,
2012
(Only
pages
1-8
are
required)
The
rest
of
the
papers
are
quite
technical
and
will
be
discussed
in
the
lecture.
Ricardo
J.
Caballero,
Emmanuel
Farhi,
and
Pierre-Olivier
Gourinchas,
An
Equilibrium
Model
of
Global
Imbalances
and
Low
Interest
Rates,
American
Economic
Review
2008,
98:1,
358393
Enrique
G.
Mendoza,
Vincenzo
Quadrini,
Jose-Victor
Rios-Rull,
Financial
Integration,
Financial
Deepness
and
Global
Imbalances
NBER
Working
Paper
No.
12909,
February
2007
Pierre-Olivier
Gourinchas
and
Helene
Rey,
From
World
Banker
to
World
Venture
Capitalist:
US
External
Adjustment
and
The
Exorbitant
Privilege
Stephanie
E.
Curcuru,
Tomas
Dvorak,
Francis
E.
Warnock
Cross-Border
Returns
Differentials,
American
Economic
Review.
Erik
Brynjolfsson,
The
Productivity
Paradox
of
Information
Technology:
Review
and
Assessment,
1994
*
Stephen
S.
Roach,
The
Productivity
Paradox,
New
York
Times
op-ed,
November
30,
2003
*
Jack
E.
Triplett,
The
Solow
Productivity
Paradox:
What
Do
Computers
Do
to
Productivity?
1998.
*John
Fernald
and
Chad
Jones,
2014
"The
Future
of
U.S.
Economic
Growth"
May
2014.
American
Economic
Review
Papers
and
Proceedings
*
Robert
J.
Gordon,
Is
U.S.
Economic
Growth
Over?
Faltering
Innovation
Confronts
the
Six
Headwinds,
NBER
Working
Paper
18315,
August
2012
st
Issue:
History
of
inequality.
Globalization
2.0:
Early
20
century
vs
early
21
centurybreadth,
speed,
and
political
backlash.
IT-enabled
productivity
enhancement
and
the
blurring
of
distinction
between
tradable
manufactured
products
and
once
non-tradable
services.
Distributional
effects
of
globalization.
Globalization
and
inequality.
Political
economy
of
globalization.
Post-crisis
backlash?
Financial
globalization.
Americanization
or
globalization?
Daniel
Cohen
Globalisation
and
its
enemies
,
MIT
Press,
2006.
*Michael
D.
Bordo,
Alan
M.
Taylor
and
Jeffrey
G.
Williamson,
editors,
2001
Globalization
in
Historical
Perspective
(Chapters
1-6)
Joseph
E.
Stiglitz,
Making
Globalization
Work,
Norton,
2006
(Chapter
10).
Martin
Wolf,
Why
Globalization
Works,
Yale
University
Press,
2004
(Chapters
3-4,
8)
*
Stephen
S.
Roach,
Unbalanced:
The
Codependency
of
America
and
China,
Yale
University
Press,
January
2014,
Chapters
6-7Perils
of
a
Different
Globalization,
in
The
Next
Asia,
Wiley
2009.
Stephen
S.
Roach,
Global
Speed
Trap,
in
The
Next
Asia,
Wiley
2009.
The
rest
of
the
papers
are
technical
and
not
required.
Andrew
Rose,
International
Financial
Integration
and
Crisis
Intensity
Francisco
Buera,
Alex
Monge
and
Giorgio
Primiceri
(2011)
"Learning
the
Wealth
of
Nations,"
Econometrica
LECTURE
16
(OCTOBER
20):
JAPAN:
ZOMBIES,
LOST
DECADE
AND
BEYOND
Issue:
The
demise
of
modern
Asias
first
growth
miracle.
Policy
blunders
vs.
structural
malaise.
Mercantalist
growth
and
currency
suppression.
Is
deflation
and
high
debt
to
blame
for
the
Lost
Decade?
The
role
of
slow
productivity
growth.
Meet
Japans
zombies
-
birth,
rise,
and
persistence
of
the
zombie
firms
and
their
effect
on
the
rest
of
the
economy.
How
government
policy
creates
zombies.
Japans
dual
economy:
stellar
multinational
performers
versus
overregulated
and
inefficient
domestic
companies.
The
future
of
the
Japanese
economy.
HOMEWORK
ASSIGNMENT
#3
IS
DUE
*
Fumio
Hayashi
and
Edward
Prescott,
The
1990s
in
Japan:
A
Lost
Decade
(you
can
skip
the
technical
parts).
*Ricardo
J.
Caballero,
Takeo
Hoshi
and
Anil
K.
Kashyap,
Zombie
Lending
and
Depressed
Restructuring
in
Japan
American
Economic
Review,
Vol.
98,
No.
5,
December
2008
*
Takeo
Hoshi
and
Anil
K
Kashyap
,
Japans
Financial
Crisis
and
Economic
Stagnation,
Journal
of
Economic
PerspectivesVolume
18,
Number
1Winter
2004Pages
326
*Fukuda
and
Nakamura
(2013),
Why
did
zombie
firms
recover
in
Japan,
The
World
Economy.
*
Ulriche
Schaede,
Show
Me
the
Money:
Japan's
Most
Profitable
Companies
of
the
2000s.
*
Christian
Broda,
David
E.
Weinstein
Happy
News
from
the
Dismal
Science:
Reassessing
the
Japanese
Fiscal
Policy
and
Sustainability
*
Why
the
Japanese
Economy
is
not
Growing:
Micro
barriers
to
productivity
growth,
McKinsey
Global
Institute.
(Only
Executive
Summary
is
required)
*Edward
Prescott,
European
Vacation:
Why
Americans
Work
More
Than
Europeans
and
a
more
technical
version
(not
required):
Why
Do
Americans
Work
So
Much
More
Than
Europeans?,
Minneapolis
Fed
QR,
2004.
Also
*
PerspectiveA
road
map
for
European
economic
reform
McKinsey
Global
Institute.
LECTURE
18
(OCTOBER
29):
UNITED
STATES:
A
NEW
GENERATION
OF
ZOMBIES
AND
ANOTHER
LOST
DECADE?
Issue:
From
true
to
false
prosperity
the
perils
of
bubble-dependent
growth.
Over-extended
American
consumers
and
a
new
generation
of
zombies.
Micro
evidence
and
macro
insights.
The
reserve
currency
and
the
arrogance
of
the
hegemon.
US
state
and
local
government
debt.
Corrosive
effects
of
policy
uncertainty.
Taking
stock:
The
four
horsemen
of
the
lost
decade:
zombies,
inflation,
high
taxes,
and
high
debt.
Stephen
S.
Roach,
The
Great
Unraveling,
Morgan
Stanley
Global
Economic
Forum,
March
15,
2007.
*
Stephen
S.
Roach,
The
Great
American
Mirage,
Project
Syndicate,
June
2012.
LECTURE
19
(NOVEMBER
3):
CHINA
Issue:
China
in
transition:
Strong
on
the
surface
but
beneath
the
surface,
unstable,
unbalanced,
uncoordinated,
and
unsustainable.
The
Next
China
the
worlds
greatest
consumption
story
arises
in
response
to
internal
and
external
pressures.
Global
impacts
of
this
transition.
Is
a
growth
slowdown
inevitable?
Chinas
untapped
growth
potential.
What
accounts
for
the
high
Chinese
savings
rate?
The
impact
of
Chinese
growth
on
innovation
and
productivity
in
other
countries.
*
Stephen
S.
Roach,
Unbalanced:
The
Codependency
of
America
and
China,
Yale
University
Press,
2014,
Chapters
1-5
and
11-12
Chang-Tai Hsieh and Pete Klenow, "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India" Quarterly
Journal of Economics 124, November 2009, 1403-1448.
LECTURE
20
(NOVEMBER
5):
EMERGING
MARKETS:
EXPORT-LED
GROWTH
MODELS
Issue:
Economics
of
growth:
the
birds
eye
view.
The
BRICs
fallacy:
The
dangers
of
mindless
generalization
and
extrapolation.
Decoupling
or
recoupling?
China-centric
Asian
supply
chain
producers
vs
consumers.
From
external
to
internal
demand
in
a
post-crisis
world.
Emerging
economies
and
the
changing
pattern
of
the
global
trade
HOMEWORK
ASSIGNMENT
#4
IS
DUE
Stephen
S.
Roach,
Hitting
a
BRIC
Wall,
in
The
Next
Asia,
Wiley,
2009.
*
Stephen
S.
Roach,
Asia
Exposed,
Project
Syndicate,
May
2012.
*
Andrew
Rose
Debunking
Decoupling,
Vox
EU
*
M.
Ayhan
Kose,
Christopher
Otrok,
Eswar
Prasad,
Dissecting
the
decoupling
debate,
VoxEU
Fabrizio
Perri
and
Vincenzo
Quadrini
(2013)
International
Recessions
Mark
Aguiar
and
Gita
Gopinath
Emerging
market
business
cycles:
The
cycle
is
the
the
trend,
Journal
of
Political
Economy
2007.
LECTURE
21
(NOVEMBER
10):
EMERGING
MARKETS:
LONG
VIEW
Issue:
Models
of
Big
Pushes:
Russia
(Stalin)
vs
China
(Mao).
Which
comes
first
economic
or
political
reforms?
Does
higher
income
lead
to
democracy
or
does
democracy
lead
to
higher
income?
Modernizations
and
critical
junctures.
*
A.
Cheremukhin,
M.
Golosov,
S.
Guriev,
A.
Tsyvinski,
The
Economy
of
the
Peoples
Republic
of
China
from
1953,
Working
paper,
January
2014
*
A.
Cheremukhin,
M.
Golosov,
S.
Guriev,
A.
Tsyvinski,
Industrialization
and
the
Economic
Development
of
Russia
through
the
lens
of
the
Neoclassical
Growth
Model,
Working
paper,
January
2014
Daron
Acemoglu,
Simon
Johnson,
James
A.
Robinson,
and
Pierre
Yared
"Income
and
Democracy,"
(2008,
American
Economic
Review,
98(3),808-842.
Daron
Acemoglu,
Simon
Johnson,
James
A.
Robinson,
and
Pierre
Yared
"Reevaluating
the
Modernization
Hypothesis
2009,
J OURNAL
O F
M ONETARY
E CONOMICS,
56(8),
1043-1058
Daron
Acemoglu,
Suresh
Naidu,
Pascual
Restrepo,
James
A.
Robinson,
2014
Democracy
Does
Cause
Growth
LECTURE
22
(NOVEMBER
12):
CLIMATE
CHANGE
AND
THE
GROWTH
DEBATE:
QUANITY
VS.
QUALITY?
Issue:
Perils
of
fixating
on
the
quantity
of
growth.
Climate
externalities,
environmental
degradation,
and
global
warming
what
are
the
options?
Is
GDP
a
good
measure
of
welfare?
Growth
metrics
beyond
GDP.
Stiglitz,
Sen,
and
Fitoussi,
Report
by
the
Commission
on
the
Measurement
of
Economic
Performance
and
Social
Progress
* William Nordhaus, The Climate Casino: Risk, Uncertainty, and Economics for a Warming World, Yale
University Press, 2013, Chapters 3-5
* Chad Jones and Peter Klenow, "Beyond GDP? Welfare Across Countries and Time", February 2011.
(this paper is quite technical but you can skip the equations).
Michael
Golosov,
John
Hassler,
Per
Krusell,
and
Aleh
Tsyvinski,
2011,
Optimal
taxes
on
fossil
fuel
in
general
equilibrium
LECTURE
23
(NOVEMBER
17):
DEMOGRAPHIC
CHALLENGES:
AGING
AND
RETIREMENT
FUNDING
Issue:
The
economics
of
population
aging:
facts
and
forecasts.
Fertility,
mortality,
immigration.
Effects
on
social
welfare
and
unfunded
pension
programs.
Aging
societies:
opportunity
or
a
challenge?
Changing
demographics
and
impacts
on
the
business
cycle.
Getting
old
before
getting
rich
China
and
other
developing
economies.
Demography
and
macro
options
policies,
productivity,
immigration,
and
external
demand.
Robert
Stowe
England,
Aging
China,
The
Washington
Papers
182,
2005.
st
*
Richard
Jackson
and
Neil
Howe,
The
Graying
of
Great
Powers:
Demography
and
Geopolitics
in
the
21
Century,
CSIS,
2008.
*IMF,
World
Economic
Outlook,
September
2004,
Chapter
3
How
will
demographic
change
affect
the
global
economy
*
Toni
Atkinson,
Thomas
Pikketty,
and
Emmanuel
Saez,
Top
Incomes
in
the
Long
Run
of
History",
Journal
of
Economic
Literature,
49(1),
2011,
3-71
*
W.
Kopczuk
and
Emmanuel
Saez,
Top
Wealth
Shares
in
the
United
States,
1916-2000:
Evidence
from
Estate
Tax
Returns"
short
version
National
Tax
Journal,
57(2),
Part
2,
June
2004,
445-487
(long
NBER
Working
Paper
No.
10399,
March
2004)
*
Bjrklund,
Anders,
Jesper
Roine,
and
Daniel
Waldenstrm.
"Intergenerational
top
income
mobility
in
Sweden:
Capitalist
dynasties
in
the
land
of
equal
opportunity?."
Journal
of
Public
Economics
96.5
(2012):
474-484.
*
Dal
B,
Ernesto,
Pedro
Dal
B,
and
Jason
Snyder.
"Political
dynasties."
The
Review
of
Economic
Studies
76.1
(2009):
115-142.
*Fabrizio
Perri
,
2013
Inequality,
Recessions
and
Recoveries,
Annual
Essay
Minneapolis
Fed.
*
Per
Krusell
and
Anthony
Smith,
2014,
IS
PIKETTY'S
"SECOND
LAW
OF
CAPITALISM"
FUNDAMENTAL?
LECTURE
26
(DECEMBER
3):
SUMMING
UP