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Assumptions and Derivation

Investment Analysis

Fall, 2012

Anisha Ghosh

Tepper School of Business

Carnegie Mellon University

November 15, 2012

Today Assumptions Derivation

Agenda

Assumptions that lead to the basic version of the CAPM

Derivation of the CAPM

Today Assumptions Derivation

Assumptions

Individual investors are price-takers: they cannot affect security prices

by their buying or selling actions (perfect competition).

Myopic behavior: All investors plan for one identical holding period

(ignore everything that might happen after the end of the single period

horizon)

All investors are rational mean-variance optimizers, i.e. they make

decisions solely on the basis of expected returns and standard

deviations of the returns in their portfolio.

Homogeneous Expectations: All investors are assumed to have

identical expectations with respect to the necessary inputs to the

portfolio decision

Investors pay no taxes on returns and no transaction costs

(commissions and service charges) on trades in securities.

Today Assumptions Derivation

Assumptions

Individual investors are price-takers: they cannot affect security prices

by their buying or selling actions (perfect competition).

Myopic behavior: All investors plan for one identical holding period

(ignore everything that might happen after the end of the single period

horizon)

All investors are rational mean-variance optimizers, i.e. they make

decisions solely on the basis of expected returns and standard

deviations of the returns in their portfolio.

Homogeneous Expectations: All investors are assumed to have

identical expectations with respect to the necessary inputs to the

portfolio decision

Investors pay no taxes on returns and no transaction costs

(commissions and service charges) on trades in securities.

Today Assumptions Derivation

Assumptions

Individual investors are price-takers: they cannot affect security prices

by their buying or selling actions (perfect competition).

Myopic behavior: All investors plan for one identical holding period

(ignore everything that might happen after the end of the single period

horizon)

All investors are rational mean-variance optimizers, i.e. they make

decisions solely on the basis of expected returns and standard

deviations of the returns in their portfolio.

Homogeneous Expectations: All investors are assumed to have

identical expectations with respect to the necessary inputs to the

portfolio decision

Investors pay no taxes on returns and no transaction costs

(commissions and service charges) on trades in securities.

Today Assumptions Derivation

Assumptions

Individual investors are price-takers: they cannot affect security prices

by their buying or selling actions (perfect competition).

Myopic behavior: All investors plan for one identical holding period

(ignore everything that might happen after the end of the single period

horizon)

All investors are rational mean-variance optimizers, i.e. they make

decisions solely on the basis of expected returns and standard

deviations of the returns in their portfolio.

Homogeneous Expectations: All investors are assumed to have

identical expectations with respect to the necessary inputs to the

portfolio decision

Investors pay no taxes on returns and no transaction costs

(commissions and service charges) on trades in securities.

Today Assumptions Derivation

Assumptions

Individual investors are price-takers: they cannot affect security prices

by their buying or selling actions (perfect competition).

Myopic behavior: All investors plan for one identical holding period

(ignore everything that might happen after the end of the single period

horizon)

All investors are rational mean-variance optimizers, i.e. they make

decisions solely on the basis of expected returns and standard

deviations of the returns in their portfolio.

Homogeneous Expectations: All investors are assumed to have

identical expectations with respect to the necessary inputs to the

portfolio decision

Investors pay no taxes on returns and no transaction costs

(commissions and service charges) on trades in securities.

Today Assumptions Derivation

Assumptions contd.

Assets are innitely divisible investors can take any position in an

investment (e.g., buy one dollars worth of IBM stock)

Unlimited short sales are allowed.

Investors can borrow or lend unlimited amounts at the riskless rate.

All assets are marketable all assets, including human capital, can

be bought and sold on the market.

Today Assumptions Derivation

Assumptions contd.

Assets are innitely divisible investors can take any position in an

investment (e.g., buy one dollars worth of IBM stock)

Unlimited short sales are allowed.

Investors can borrow or lend unlimited amounts at the riskless rate.

All assets are marketable all assets, including human capital, can

be bought and sold on the market.

Today Assumptions Derivation

Assumptions contd.

Assets are innitely divisible investors can take any position in an

investment (e.g., buy one dollars worth of IBM stock)

Unlimited short sales are allowed.

Investors can borrow or lend unlimited amounts at the riskless rate.

All assets are marketable all assets, including human capital, can

be bought and sold on the market.

Today Assumptions Derivation

Assumptions contd.

Assets are innitely divisible investors can take any position in an

investment (e.g., buy one dollars worth of IBM stock)

Unlimited short sales are allowed.

Investors can borrow or lend unlimited amounts at the riskless rate.

All assets are marketable all assets, including human capital, can

be bought and sold on the market.

Today Assumptions Derivation

The Efcient Frontier - No Lending and Borrowing

BC represents the efcient frontier while ABC represents the set of

minimum variance portfolios facing an individual investor i

Note: In general, investors may have different expectations the

efcient frontier will differ among investors

If the investor can also borrow or lend unlimited amounts at the riskless

rate R

F

the tangency portfolio P

i

is investor i s optimal portfolio of

risky assets, regardless of his risk preferences

Today Assumptions Derivation

The Efcient Frontier - No Lending and Borrowing

BC represents the efcient frontier while ABC represents the set of

minimum variance portfolios facing an individual investor i

Note: In general, investors may have different expectations the

efcient frontier will differ among investors

If the investor can also borrow or lend unlimited amounts at the riskless

rate R

F

the tangency portfolio P

i

is investor i s optimal portfolio of

risky assets, regardless of his risk preferences

Today Assumptions Derivation

The Efcient Frontier - No Lending and Borrowing

BC represents the efcient frontier while ABC represents the set of

minimum variance portfolios facing an individual investor i

Note: In general, investors may have different expectations the

efcient frontier will differ among investors

If the investor can also borrow or lend unlimited amounts at the riskless

rate R

F

the tangency portfolio P

i

is investor i s optimal portfolio of

risky assets, regardless of his risk preferences

Today Assumptions Derivation

The Efcient Frontier - No Lending and Borrowing

BC represents the efcient frontier while ABC represents the set of

minimum variance portfolios facing an individual investor i

Note: In general, investors may have different expectations the

efcient frontier will differ among investors

If the investor can also borrow or lend unlimited amounts at the riskless

rate R

F

the tangency portfolio P

i

is investor i s optimal portfolio of

risky assets, regardless of his risk preferences

Today Assumptions Derivation

CAPM: Derivation

If all investors have homogeneous expectations and they all face the

same R

F

they will each face the same investment opportunity set

all investors would buy the same portfolio P

i

of risky assets and then

borrow or lend to achieve the risk-return combination they prefer.

Since every investor is holding the same portfolio P

i

of risky assets, and

every asset must be held by someone, P

i

can only be the market

portfolio: the portfolio composed of all risky assets held according to

their relative market values.

Market Portfolio

The market portfolio is a portfolio comprised of all risky assets where

each asset is held in the proportion that the market value of that asset

represents of the total market value of all risky assets.

Today Assumptions Derivation

CAPM: Derivation

If all investors have homogeneous expectations and they all face the

same R

F

they will each face the same investment opportunity set

all investors would buy the same portfolio P

i

of risky assets and then

borrow or lend to achieve the risk-return combination they prefer.

Since every investor is holding the same portfolio P

i

of risky assets, and

every asset must be held by someone, P

i

can only be the market

portfolio: the portfolio composed of all risky assets held according to

their relative market values.

Market Portfolio

The market portfolio is a portfolio comprised of all risky assets where

each asset is held in the proportion that the market value of that asset

represents of the total market value of all risky assets.

Today Assumptions Derivation

CAPM: Derivation

If all investors have homogeneous expectations and they all face the

same R

F

they will each face the same investment opportunity set

all investors would buy the same portfolio P

i

of risky assets and then

borrow or lend to achieve the risk-return combination they prefer.

Since every investor is holding the same portfolio P

i

of risky assets, and

every asset must be held by someone, P

i

can only be the market

portfolio: the portfolio composed of all risky assets held according to

their relative market values.

Market Portfolio

The market portfolio is a portfolio comprised of all risky assets where

each asset is held in the proportion that the market value of that asset

represents of the total market value of all risky assets.

Today Assumptions Derivation

CAPM: Derivation

If all investors have homogeneous expectations and they all face the

same R

F

they will each face the same investment opportunity set

all investors would buy the same portfolio P

i

of risky assets and then

borrow or lend to achieve the risk-return combination they prefer.

Since every investor is holding the same portfolio P

i

of risky assets, and

every asset must be held by someone, P

i

can only be the market

portfolio: the portfolio composed of all risky assets held according to

their relative market values.

Market Portfolio

The market portfolio is a portfolio comprised of all risky assets where

each asset is held in the proportion that the market value of that asset

represents of the total market value of all risky assets.

Today Assumptions Derivation

CAPM: Derivation

If all investors have homogeneous expectations and they all face the

same R

F

they will each face the same investment opportunity set

all investors would buy the same portfolio P

i

of risky assets and then

borrow or lend to achieve the risk-return combination they prefer.

Since every investor is holding the same portfolio P

i

of risky assets, and

every asset must be held by someone, P

i

can only be the market

portfolio: the portfolio composed of all risky assets held according to

their relative market values.

Market Portfolio

The market portfolio is a portfolio comprised of all risky assets where

each asset is held in the proportion that the market value of that asset

represents of the total market value of all risky assets.

Today Assumptions Derivation

Capital Market Line

The straight line in the above gure is referred to as the Capital Market

Line (CML).

The CML can be described by the equation:

E (R

e

) = R

F

price of time

+

E (R

M

) R

F

M

market price of risk

amount of risk

The CML gives the trade-off between risk and return for efcient

portfolios.

Individual securities will typically be inefcient, and will not lie on the

CML.

The CAPM answers the question, "How can we adapt the CML to work

for ANY asset, not just efcient portfolios?"

Today Assumptions Derivation

Capital Market Line

The straight line in the above gure is referred to as the Capital Market

Line (CML).

The CML can be described by the equation:

E (R

e

) = R

F

price of time

+

E (R

M

) R

F

M

market price of risk

amount of risk

The CML gives the trade-off between risk and return for efcient

portfolios.

Individual securities will typically be inefcient, and will not lie on the

CML.

The CAPM answers the question, "How can we adapt the CML to work

for ANY asset, not just efcient portfolios?"

Today Assumptions Derivation

Capital Market Line

The straight line in the above gure is referred to as the Capital Market

Line (CML).

The CML can be described by the equation:

E (R

e

) = R

F

price of time

+

E (R

M

) R

F

M

market price of risk

amount of risk

The CML gives the trade-off between risk and return for efcient

portfolios.

Individual securities will typically be inefcient, and will not lie on the

CML.

The CAPM answers the question, "How can we adapt the CML to work

for ANY asset, not just efcient portfolios?"

Today Assumptions Derivation

Capital Market Line

The straight line in the above gure is referred to as the Capital Market

Line (CML).

The CML can be described by the equation:

E (R

e

) = R

F

price of time

+

E (R

M

) R

F

M

market price of risk

The CML gives the trade-off between risk and return for efcient

portfolios.

Individual securities will typically be inefcient, and will not lie on the

CML.

The CAPM answers the question, "How can we adapt the CML to work

for ANY asset, not just efcient portfolios?"

Today Assumptions Derivation

Capital Market Line

The straight line in the above gure is referred to as the Capital Market

Line (CML).

The CML can be described by the equation:

E (R

e

) = R

F

price of time

+

E (R

M

) R

F

M

market price of risk

amount of risk

The CML gives the trade-off between risk and return for efcient

portfolios.

Individual securities will typically be inefcient, and will not lie on the

CML.

The CAPM answers the question, "How can we adapt the CML to work

for ANY asset, not just efcient portfolios?"

Today Assumptions Derivation

The CAPM

For very well-diversied portfolios, nonsystematic risk tends to go to

zero and the only relevant risk is systematic risk measured by Beta.

Given the assumptions of homogeneous expectations and unlimited

riskless borrowing and lending, all investors will hold the market

portfolio.

the investor will hold a very well-diversied portfolio.

Beta is the correct measure of a securitys risk.

Since we assume that the investor is concerned only with expected

return and risk, the only dimensions of a security that need be of

concern are expected return and Beta.

Today Assumptions Derivation

The CAPM

For very well-diversied portfolios, nonsystematic risk tends to go to

zero and the only relevant risk is systematic risk measured by Beta.

Given the assumptions of homogeneous expectations and unlimited

riskless borrowing and lending, all investors will hold the market

portfolio.

the investor will hold a very well-diversied portfolio.

Beta is the correct measure of a securitys risk.

Since we assume that the investor is concerned only with expected

return and risk, the only dimensions of a security that need be of

concern are expected return and Beta.

Today Assumptions Derivation

The CAPM

For very well-diversied portfolios, nonsystematic risk tends to go to

zero and the only relevant risk is systematic risk measured by Beta.

Given the assumptions of homogeneous expectations and unlimited

riskless borrowing and lending, all investors will hold the market

portfolio.

the investor will hold a very well-diversied portfolio.

Beta is the correct measure of a securitys risk.

Since we assume that the investor is concerned only with expected

return and risk, the only dimensions of a security that need be of

concern are expected return and Beta.

Today Assumptions Derivation

The CAPM

For very well-diversied portfolios, nonsystematic risk tends to go to

zero and the only relevant risk is systematic risk measured by Beta.

Given the assumptions of homogeneous expectations and unlimited

riskless borrowing and lending, all investors will hold the market

portfolio.

the investor will hold a very well-diversied portfolio.

Beta is the correct measure of a securitys risk.

Since we assume that the investor is concerned only with expected

return and risk, the only dimensions of a security that need be of

concern are expected return and Beta.

Today Assumptions Derivation

The CAPM

For very well-diversied portfolios, nonsystematic risk tends to go to

zero and the only relevant risk is systematic risk measured by Beta.

Given the assumptions of homogeneous expectations and unlimited

riskless borrowing and lending, all investors will hold the market

portfolio.

the investor will hold a very well-diversied portfolio.

Beta is the correct measure of a securitys risk.

Since we assume that the investor is concerned only with expected

return and risk, the only dimensions of a security that need be of

concern are expected return and Beta.

Today Assumptions Derivation

The CAPM: Derivation

All investments and portfolios of investments must lie along a straight

line in the expected return-Beta space:

E (R

p

) = XE (R

A

) + (1 X) E (R

B

)

p

= X

A

+ (1 X)

B

E (R

p

) = a + b

p

If any investment were to lie above or below that straight line, then an

opportunity would exist for riskless arbitrage.

This arbitrage would continue until all investments converged to the line.

How do we identify this straight line?

Today Assumptions Derivation

The CAPM: Derivation

All investments and portfolios of investments must lie along a straight

line in the expected return-Beta space:

E (R

p

) = XE (R

A

) + (1 X) E (R

B

)

p

= X

A

+ (1 X)

B

E (R

p

) = a + b

p

If any investment were to lie above or below that straight line, then an

opportunity would exist for riskless arbitrage.

This arbitrage would continue until all investments converged to the line.

How do we identify this straight line?

Today Assumptions Derivation

The CAPM: Derivation

All investments and portfolios of investments must lie along a straight

line in the expected return-Beta space:

E (R

p

) = XE (R

A

) + (1 X) E (R

B

)

p

= X

A

+ (1 X)

B

E (R

p

) = a + b

p

If any investment were to lie above or below that straight line, then an

opportunity would exist for riskless arbitrage.

This arbitrage would continue until all investments converged to the line.

How do we identify this straight line?

Today Assumptions Derivation

The CAPM: Derivation

All investments and portfolios of investments must lie along a straight

line in the expected return-Beta space:

E (R

p

) = XE (R

A

) + (1 X) E (R

B

)

p

= X

A

+ (1 X)

B

E (R

p

) = a + b

p

If any investment were to lie above or below that straight line, then an

opportunity would exist for riskless arbitrage.

This arbitrage would continue until all investments converged to the line.

How do we identify this straight line?

Today Assumptions Derivation

The CAPM: Derivation contd.

A straight line can be identied using any two points.

One of the points is the market portfolio, M that has a Beta of 1.

The second point corresponds to the riskless asset that has Beta of 0

the CAPM is given by the equation:

E (R

i

) = R

F

+

i

[E (R

M

) R

F

]

i

=

iM

2

M

Today Assumptions Derivation

The CAPM: Derivation contd.

A straight line can be identied using any two points.

One of the points is the market portfolio, M that has a Beta of 1.

The second point corresponds to the riskless asset that has Beta of 0

the CAPM is given by the equation:

E (R

i

) = R

F

+

i

[E (R

M

) R

F

]

i

=

iM

2

M

Today Assumptions Derivation

The CAPM: Derivation contd.

A straight line can be identied using any two points.

One of the points is the market portfolio, M that has a Beta of 1.

The second point corresponds to the riskless asset that has Beta of 0

the CAPM is given by the equation:

E (R

i

) = R

F

+

i

[E (R

M

) R

F

]

i

=

iM

2

M

Today Assumptions Derivation

The CAPM: Derivation contd.

A straight line can be identied using any two points.

One of the points is the market portfolio, M that has a Beta of 1.

The second point corresponds to the riskless asset that has Beta of 0

the CAPM is given by the equation:

E (R

i

) = R

F

+

i

[E (R

M

) R

F

]

i

=

iM

2

M

Today Assumptions Derivation

What is the Market Portfolio

The market portfolio is the aggregate of all risky investments including:

Stocks

Bonds

Real Estate

Human Capital, ...

Baseline: hard to measure

Proxies:

Dow: "Price-weighted" index of returns on 30 large "blue chip"

companies adjusted for stock splits and dividends

S&P 500 index

Today Assumptions Derivation

What is the Market Portfolio

The market portfolio is the aggregate of all risky investments including:

Stocks

Bonds

Real Estate

Human Capital, ...

Baseline: hard to measure

Proxies:

Dow: "Price-weighted" index of returns on 30 large "blue chip"

companies adjusted for stock splits and dividends

S&P 500 index

Today Assumptions Derivation

What is the Market Portfolio

The market portfolio is the aggregate of all risky investments including:

Stocks

Bonds

Real Estate

Human Capital, ...

Baseline: hard to measure

Proxies:

Dow: "Price-weighted" index of returns on 30 large "blue chip"

companies adjusted for stock splits and dividends

S&P 500 index

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