6RO8ESSIONAC 6A6ER

,nalFsis of the Serbian +a3ital 6ar0et

1

6ino5i7 Jelena
2
1 Vu0o5i7 Vlasti.ir1 Ins$i$%$& o' Economic Sci&nc&s, B&l-,a.&, S&,/ia
")+G 33.7E"!7.11F J'$G O16, G01, G10, G12 ID: 198572044




ABS()A*( + #his paper analyses the Serbian capital mar$et" Its main characteristic is that it is
a !ery narro% and depth lac$ing mar$et" &or analysis %e used data from the Belgrade Stoc$ E'change
(BSE), *epublic of Serbia Securities Commission (SEC), and +ational Ban$ of Serbia (+BS)" #he
crisis has negati!ely influenced on the capital mar$et in Serbia" ,ue to this fact, the analysis %as done
by di!iding into t%o sub-periods. before the crisis (200/ 0 2001), and during the crisis (2002 0 2011)"
*esults sho%ed that turno!er decreased for o!er 304 for both BE5E6 indices, %hile the %hole capital
mar$et has notably reco!ered than$s to an e'tensi!e borro%ing of the state" Stoc$ mar$et
capitali7ation has fallen" *esults of analysis sho%ed that go!ernment debt securities dominate after the
crisis on the capital mar$et (234 in 2011), %hile other shares from pri!ati7ation ma$e a negligible
part of the mar$et (e8uity mar$et dropped for o!er 10 times from 200/ to 2010)" 9e concluded that the
pri!ati7ation in Serbia significantly influenced on the features and !olatility of the capital mar$et in
Serbia"

&E, -.)DS/ capital mar$et, frontier mar$et, turno!er, :,;, BE5E6 indices, li8uidity
%ntroduction
S&,/ian ca5i$al ma,3&$ is /y i$s c7a,ac$&,is$ics ca$&-o,iA&. in$o $7& -,o%5 o' ',on$i&,
ma,3&$s ES5i&.&ll, 2#11F, 07ic7 is s5&cially in+&s$i-a$&.. :7& 5,i+a$iAa$ion in S&,/ia
si-ni'ican$ly in'l%&nc&. on $7& '&a$%,&s an. +ola$ili$y o' $7& ca5i$al ma,3&$ in S&,/ia. :7&
sam& &''&c$s o' $7& 5,i+a$iAa$ion 0&,& also no$ic&. in o$7&, $,ansi$ion &conomi&s E1&--inson
J Bo%$c7o+a, 2###F.
L8,on$i&, ma,3&$? is an &conomic $&,m 'i,s$ %s&. in 1!!2 /y $7& In$&,na$ional 8inanc&
Co,5o,a$ion $o .&sc,i/& a s%/s&$ o' +&,y small an. illiM%i. &m&,-in- s$oc3 ma,3&$s. :0&n$y
y&a,s la$&, $7&,& is no s$,ic$ .&'ini$ion o' ',on$i&, ma,3&$s, $7o%-7, /y .&'a%l$, $7&y a,&
commonly +i&0&. as $7os& ma,3&$s 07ic7 a,& n&i$7&, .&+&lo5&. no, &m&,-in-. @i-7li-7$in-
/o$7 $7&i, o55o,$%ni$y an. $7&i, c7all&n-&, ',on$i&, ma,3&$s ,&5,&s&n$ on&-'i'$7 o' $7& 0o,l.Ns
5o5%la$ion, y&$ l&ss $7an 1#O o' -lo/al <D6, an. only a/o%$ 2O o' -lo/al ma,3&$

1
This paper is part of the research projects number 47009 (European Integrations and Social and Economic
Changes in Serbian Economy on the Way to the EU) and number 179015 (Challenges and Prospects of
Structural Changes in Serbia: Strategic Directions for Economic Development and Harmonization With EU
Requirements), financed by the Ministry of Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia.
The part of the results from this paper were presented at the conference Economic Changes in a Time of Crisis:
Challenges and Opportunities in Coimbra, Portugal (6-7 September, 2012).
2
Institute of Economic Sciences, Zmaj Jovina 12, Belgrade, Serbia, e-mail : jelena.minovic@ien.bg.ac.rs
Economic nalysis (2013, <ol" =/, +o" 1-2, 1-11)

2
ca5i$aliAa$ion.
3
EKam5l&s incl%.& $7& ',on$i&, ma,3&$s o' S&,/ia, C,oa$ia, B%l-a,ia,
9aAa37s$an, Ni-&,ia, S,i Can3a, =i&$nam
4
, =&n&A%&la, *o,.an, 6a3is$an, an. A,-&n$ina
ES5&i.&ll, 2#11F, E=%3o+i2 J 1ino+i2, 2#12F.
Som& o' $7& 'i,s$ a%$7o,s 07o ,&s&a,c7 an. analys& $7& ',on$i&, an. &m&,-in- ma,3&$s a,&
C7%7an E1!!"F, Ro%0&n7o,s$ E1!!!F, B&3a&,$ J @a,+&y E2##2, 2##3F, Ca)%&i,oa J :a/a3
E2##"F, B&3a&,$, @a,+&y J C%n./la. E2##7F, Cla,3 E2##8F, P&ya$i, Sc7m%3l&, J =an @o,&n
E2##8F, @&a,n, 6i&ss& J S$,an-& E2##!F, Qi+3o+i2 J 1ino+i2 E2#1#F, 1ino+i2 J Qi+3o+i2
E2#1#F, S5&i.&ll E2#11F, 1ino+i2 E2#12aF, 1ino+i2 E2#12/F, an. o$7&,s. Som&$im&s 5,o-,&ss
',om ',on$i&, ma,3&$ s$a$%s $o a mo,& .&+&lo5&. s$a$%s is a-oniAin-ly slo0, i' i$ occ%,s a$ all.
:7& %5si.& 5o$&n$ial o' ',on$i&, &M%i$y ma,3&$s 7as mo$i+a$&. many in+&s$o,s $o consi.&,
$a3in- 5osi$ions in $7&m, /%$ $o .a$&, ,&la$i+&ly '&0 7a+& .on& so. :7& ,&ason s$a$&. mos$
o'$&n 'o, $7is ,&l%c$anc& $o in+&s$ is ,is3 ES5&i.&ll, 2#11F, E=%3o+i2 J 1ino+i2, 2#12F.
In $7is 5a5&, 0& analys&. $7& S&,/ian ',on$i&, ca5i$al ma,3&$. R& %s&. .a$a 'o, $o$al
$%,no+&, on $7& S&,/ian ca5i$al ma,3&$, as 0&ll as $%,no+&, 'o, /o$7 BECES in.ic&s. 8o,
analysis 0& %s&. .a$a ',om $7& B&l-,a.& S$oc3 EKc7an-& EBSEF, R&5%/lic o' S&,/ia S&c%,i$i&s
Commission ESECF, an. Na$ional Ban3 o' S&,/ia ENBSF. :7& c,isis 7as also n&-a$i+&ly
in'l%&nc&. on $7& ca5i$al ma,3&$ in S&,/ia. D%& $o $7is 'ac$, $7& analysis 0as .on& /y .i+i.in-
in$o $0o s%/-5&,io.sG /&'o,& $7& c,isis E2## T 2##8F, an. .%,in- $7& c,isis E2##! T 2#11F. :7&
ca5i$al ma,3&$ in $7is analysis is s&-m&n$&. on /on. ma,3&$ an. &M%i$y ma,3&$, as o'$&n
.on& in $7& ,&5o,$s EECB, 2#12F. R& s7o0&. $7a$ -o+&,nm&n$ .&/$ s&c%,i$i&s E,7OF a,& $7&
.ominan$ s&-m&n$ on $7& ca5i$al ma,3&$ in S&,/ia. S7a,&s ma3& $7& ,&s$ o' $7is ma,3&$
E33,3OF, /&ca%s& $7&,& 0&,&nN$ any co,5o,a$& .&/$ s&c%,i$i&s" :7& 5,i+a$iAa$ion in S&,/ia
si-ni'ican$ly in'l%&nc&. on $7& '&a$%,&s an. +ola$ili$y o' $7& ca5i$al ma,3&$ in S&,/ia. Ri$7o%$
$7& analysis o' $7& 5,i+a$iAa$ion i$ 0o%l. no$ /& 5ossi/l& $o &K5lain $7& /&7a+io%, o' in+&s$o,s
an. s7a,&7ol.&,s in $7&s& co%n$,i&s E=%3o+i2 J 1ino+i2, 2#12F.
:7& s$,%c$%,& o' $7is 5a5&, is as 'ollo0sG S&c$ion 1 5,&s&n$s in$,o.%c$ion, S&c$ion 2
.&sc,i/&s ',on$i&, ca5i$al ma,3&$ in S&,/ia, in S&c$ion 3 is -i+&n analysis o' $7& $%,no+&, on
$7& ca5i$al ma,3&$ in S&,/ia, S&c$ion " analysis $%,no+&, o' BECES in.ic&s on $7& BSE, an. in
S&c$ion 5 concl%sion is -i+&n.
Frontier ca3ital .ar0et in Serbia
<,oss .om&s$ic 5,o.%c$ E<D6F in $7& R&5%/lic o' S&,/ia .&clin&. /y 3.5O in 2##!, .%& $o
$7& im5ac$ o' $7& -lo/al &conomic c,isis, an. $7& ,&s%l$in- slo0.o0n in &conomic ac$i+i$y
Es&& :a/l& 1F. <D6 .&clin& mainly .%& $o $7& .om&s$ic .&man.. :7& la,-&s$ n&-a$i+&
con$,i/%$ion o' <D6 -,o0$7 7as -i+&n in+&s$m&n$ s5&n.in- o' 5,i+a$& an. 5%/lic s&c$o,.
6,i+a$& cons%m5$ion is con$,i/%$&. $o .&clin& in 'inal .&man., .%& $o ,isin- %n&m5loym&n$
an. 'allin- 5%,c7asin- 5o0&, ENBS, 2##!F.

3
http://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2012/05/03/frontier-market-investing-inefficiency-equals-opportunity/
4
http://www.doughroller.net/investing/frontier-markets-to-boldly-go-where-few-investors-have-gone-before/

>ino!i?, @", et al", nalysis of the Serbian Capital >ar$et, E (2013, <ol" =/, +o, 1-2, 1-11)

3
#able 1" :ro%th rate of :,; in *epublic of Serbia

GDP 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Growth rate (in %) 5.4 3.6 5.4 3.8 -3.5 1.0 1.6
Source. +BS (http.AA%%%"nbs"rsAinternetAcirilicaA10Ainde'"html)

<D6 -,o0$7 Ea'$&, 2##!F 0as .ominan$ .%& $o inc,&as& in 'o,&i-n .&man.. EK5o,$s -,&0
'as$&, $7an im5o,$s, l&a.in- $o a si-ni'ican$ ,&.%c$ion in $7& $,a.& .&'ici$. S%c7 a $,&n. 7as
,&s%l$&. in a 5osi$i+& con$,i/%$ion o' n&$ &K5o,$s $o <D6 -,o0$7, 07ic7 0as 7i-7&, $7an $7&
n&-a$i+& con$,i/%$ion o' .om&s$ic .&man. ENBS, 2#1#F.
S5&i.&ll E2#11F 5oin$&. o%$ $7a$ $o.ay, ',on$i&, co%n$,i&s acco%n$ 'o, 21.O o' $7& 0o,l.Ns
5o5%la$ion, O o' i$s nominal <D6, an. only 3.1O o' 0o,l. ma,3&$ ca5i$aliAa$ion. E+&n 0i$7
$7is im/alanc&, a nai+& in+&s$o, %sin- ca5 0&i-7$s as 7is o, 7&, -%i.&lin& 0o%l. s$ill 0an$ $o
7a+& 3.1O o' a -lo/al 5o,$'olio in ',on$i&, ma,3&$s.
S5&i.&ll E2#11F s7o0&. $7a$ S&,/ia 7as a 2#% weight in $7& 1SCI 8,on$i&, 1a,3&$ In.&K,
an. 1#% weight in $7& R%ss&ll 8,on$i&, 1a,3&$ In.&K Es&& :a/l& 2F.

#able 2" Serbia in the >SCI, and *ussell &rontier >ar$et Indices


Population
(millions)
GDP per
Capita
(PPP, 2008)
GNI per Capita,
Atlas Method
(2008 US$)
World Bank
Market Cap
(2008 $ millions)
MSCI
Frontier
Market Index
Russell
Frontier
Serbia 7.4 11,456 5,700 12,165 0.2 0.1
Source. Speidell (2011), page 10"

6,&cis&ly, $7& S&,/ian ca5i$al ma,3&$ is $7& B&l-,a.& S$oc3 EKc7an-& EBSEF, as $7& only
o,-aniA&. ma,3&$ o' $7is 3in. in $7& co%n$,y Es&& 8i-%,& 1F. S&,/ian ca5i$al ma,3&$, as %n.&,
.&+&lo5&. ma,3&$, 'ac&s many 5,o/l&msG small ca5i$aliAa$ion, small n%m/&, o' s7a,&s on $7&
liM%i. s&-m&n$s o' $7& ma,3&$, a55&a,anc& o' som& %nsync7,oniA&. $,a.in-, i,,&-%la,
',&M%&ncy o' $,ansac$ions, lac3 o' $,ans5a,&ncy in $7& ,&5o,$s, lac3 o' -o+&,nm&n$ ,&-%la$ions
an. so-call&. $7& in+isi/l& si-ns o' ,is3 ECa$3o+i2 J Ba,ac, 1!!!F, EQi+3o+i2 J 1ino+i2, 2#1#F.
8,om i$s /&-innin-, $7& S&,/ian ma,3&$ 0as no$ a s7a,& ma,3&$ /%$ co,5o,a$& ma,3&$.
Also, $7is is a on&-0ay ma,3&$, consi.&,in- $7& s%55ly an. .&man.. :7is m&ans $7a$ $7&
ma)o, s7a,& s&ll&,s a,& in.i+i.%al s7a,& o0n&,s 07o -o$ $7& s7a,&s, %s%ally ',&&, in $7&
5,oc&ss o' mass 5,i+a$iAa$ion. 1a)o, s7a,& /%y&,s com& ',om $7& co,5o,a$& s&c$o,. :7& /asic
aim o' in+&s$in- 0as no$ $7& s7a,& yi&l., /%$ $a3in- o+&, $7& com5ani&s. :7& %s%al c7ain o'
&+&n$s 0as as $7& 'ollo0in-G $%,no+&, +ol%m& an. s7a,& liM%i.i$y ,is& 07&n $7& 'i,m is in a
$7,&a$ o' /&in- $a3&n o+&,. R7&n $a3in- o+&, 7a55&ns, $7& liM%i.i$y an. +ol%m& .,o5, 07il&
$7& s7a,& 5,ic& /&com&s in&,$. :,a.in- in $7&s& $,ansac$ions is in a -,&a$ m&as%,& /as&. on
in'o,m&, in'o,ma$ion EQi+3o+i2 &$ al., 2##5F, EQi+3o+i2 J 1ino+i2, 2#1#F.
Economic nalysis (2013, <ol" =/, +o" 1-2, 1-11)

"
&igure 1" Share trading on BSE and B#C
C
mar$et (in million ED*)

Source. SEC E2##F J E2#1#F.

UoB3i2 J Qi+3o+i2 E2##7F s$a$&. $7a$ in $7& S&,/ian ma,3&$, $7&,& a,& no &Kac$ ,%l&s
,&-a,.in- a+aila/l& in'o,ma$ion a/o%$ com5any, an. cons&M%&n$ly insi.&, in'o,ma$ion 7as a
7%-& in'l%&nc& on in+&s$o,Ns .&cisions. B&$$&, ,&-%la$ion in $7is a,&a, 0i$7 inc,&as&. amo%n$
o' 5%/licly a+aila/l& in'o,ma$ion, can ,&.%c& $7& in'o,ma$ion asymm&$,y ,is3. On $7& o$7&,
si.&, $7is 0ill l&a. $o .&c,&asin- $,ansac$ional cos$s an. also $o ,&.%c&. illiM%i.i$y ,is3,
07ic7 co%l. /,in- %5 $7& l&+&l o' 'o,&i-n in+&s$m&n$s.
R& 0o%l. li3& $o 5oin$ o%$ $7a$ $7&,& is no$ m%c7 5a5&,s in $7& ca5i$al ma,3&$ o' $7&
R&5%/lic o' S&,/ia. Som& o' $7&m a,& 5a5&,s /y Qi+3o+i2 &$ al. E2##5F, E,i2, Ni3oli2 J
(.,a+3o+i2 E2##!F, Qi+3o+i2 J 1ino+i2 E2#1#F, E,i2 E2#1#F, 1ino+i2 E2#12/F, an. =%3o+i2 J
1ino+i2 E2#12F.
E,i2, Ni3oli2 J (.,a+3o+i2 E2##!F s$%.i&. $7& mo+&m&n$ o' $7& B&l-,a.& S$oc3 EKc7an-&
in.&K, an. com5a,&. i$ 0i$7 $7& s$oc3 &Kc7an-& in.ic&s in $7& ,&-ion in o,.&, $o analyA& $7&
im5ac$ o' $7& -lo/al &conomic c,isis. Qi+3o+i2 J 1ino+i2 E2#1#F &K5lo,&. ca%s&s 'o,
illiM%i.i$y o' $7& S&,/ian ca5i$al ma,3&$ 'o, $7& 5&,io. o' 2##5-2##!. :7&s& a%$7o,s .&sc,i/&.
57&nom&nolo-y o' &m&,-in- an. ',on$i&, 'inancial ma,3&$s in .&$ail. :7&i, ,&s%l$s s7o0&.
$7a$ l&+&l o' ma,3&$ liM%i.i$y 0as lo0 an. 5&,sis$&n$ in S&,/ia. A..i$ionally, Qi+3o+i2 J
1ino+i2 E2#1#F s7o0&. $7a$ $im&-+a,yin- illiM%i.i$y an. i$s +ola$ili$y 0as 7i-7ly %ns$a/l& in
$7is ma,3&$. :7&y i.&n$i'i&. .i''&,&n$ 5&,io.s an. s7o0&. $7a$, in mos$ cas&s, %5s an.

5
Over the counter market (OTC)

>ino!i?, @", et al", nalysis of the Serbian Capital >ar$et, E (2013, <ol" =/, +o, 1-2, 1-11)

5
.o0ns in 'o,&i-n in+&s$o,sN 5a,$ici5a$ion l&a.s $o .,ama$ic 'alls an. ,is&s in ma,3&$
illiM%i.i$y an. i$s +ola$ili$y. 1ino+i2 E2#12/F analys&. &M%ili/,i%m o' $7& S&,/ian s$oc3
ma,3&$ %sin- $7& s$an.a,. Ca5i$al Ass&$ 6,icin- 1o.&l ECA61, /y S7a,5&, 1!", an.
Cin$n&,, 1!5F. S7& $&s$&. $7is mo.&l &m5i,ically %sin- ,&-,&ssion analysis on $7& S&,/ian
s$oc3 ma,3&$. 1ino+i2Ns E2#12/F ,&s%l$s s7o0&. $7a$ $7& classic CA61 0as -oo. 'o,
.&+&lo5&. an. liM%i. ma,3&$s, /%$ i$ 0as no$ a/l& $o .&sc,i/& $7& &M%ili/,i%m o' $7& S&,/ian
',on$i&, ma,3&$, o, $7& 5,oc&ss o' .isco+&,in- 5,ic&s on $7is ma,3&$. 1ino+i2 E2#12aF
analys&. liM%i.i$y o' $7& C,oa$ian ',on$i&, s$oc3 ma,3&$. 8o, 7&, analysis s7& %s&.
5,ic&s o' all s$oc3s lis$&. a$ $7& $7& (a-,&/ S$oc3 EKc7an-& in $7& 5&,io.G 2##5 - 2##!.
S7& s7o0&. $7a$ $7& l&+&l o' liM%i.i$y 'o, $7& C,oa$ian ma,3&$ 0as +&,y lo0. A$ $7&
sam& $im&, 1ino+i2Ns E2#12aF ,&s%l$s s%--&s$&. $7a$ $7& C,oa$ian ma,3&$ 0as l&ss
illiM%i. $7an $7& S&,/ian ma,3&$. S7& concl%.&. $7a$ lo0 l&+&l o' liM%i.i$y 0as on& o'
$7& 3&y 5,o/l&m a,&as 'acin- $7is small, %n.&+&lo5&. an. ',on$i&, ma,3&$. 1ino+i2Ns
E2#12aF ,&s%l$s s%--&s$&. $7a$ illiM%i.i$y 0as 5&,sis$&n$ in $7& C,oa$ian s$oc3 ma,3&$.
Turno5er on the Serbian ca3ital .ar0et
In $7& analysis, 0& %s&. .a$a 'o, $o$al $%,no+&, ',om ann%al ,&5o,$s o' S&c%,i$i&s
Commission R&5%/lic o' S&,/ia ESEC, www.sec.gov.rsF. @o0&+&,, $7& $%,no+&, on $7& S&,/ian
ma,3&$ 0as 1#O l&ss $7an $7& <D6. 8i-%,& 2 5,&s&n$s $o$al $%,no+&, in /illion EUR, on $7&
ca5i$al ma,3&$ o' R&5%/lic o' S&,/ia.

&igure 2" #otal #urno!er (in billion ED*), on the BSE and the B#C mar$et in the *epublic of Serbia

+ote. *S, !alues of turno!er trading securities are translated into Euro by a!erage e'change rate of +BS on
the date of the transaction"
Source. SEC (200/) E (2010)"
Economic nalysis (2013, <ol" =/, +o" 1-2, 1-11)

:7%s, $7& ann%al $%,no+&, o' s&c%,i$i&s inc,&as&. ',om 7." /illion EUR Ein 2##5F $o 1.
/illion EUR Ein 2##F, $7&n ,&ac7&. 51.3 /illion EUR Ein 2##7F, an. .1 /illion EUR Ein 2##8F.
In $7& 5os$ c,isis y&a,s $o$al ann%al $%,no+&, o' $7& s&c%,i$i&s .&clin&. $o 3.2 /illion EUR Ein
2##!F, an. 27." /illion EUR Ein 2#1#F. :7& a+&,a-& +ol%m&, in 2##! an. in 2#1#, on $7&
S&,/ian ca5i$al ma,3&$ 7as .&c,&as&. /y mo,& $7an 55O $7an $7& a+&,a-& +ol%m& in $7&
5&,io.G 2##5-2##8.
8i-%,& 3 s7o0s $7& mo+&m&n$ o' $7& $%,no+&, on $7& S&,/ian ma,3&$. Alon-si.& $7& $o$al
$%,no+&,, $7&,& is also $7& $%,no+&, on &M%i$y an. /on. ma,3&$s. Coo3in- a$ $7is, on& can
no$ic& no$ only $7& .ynamics in c7an-&, /%$ also som& s$,%c$%,al c7an-&s E=%3o+i2 J
1ino+i2, 2#12F.
=%3o+i2 J 1ino+i2 E2#12F s7o0&. $7a$ $%,no+&, mo+&m&n$ /y y&a,s 0as +&,y %n%s%alG
/&'o,& $7& c,isis i$ .,o55&. +&,y 'as$, $7&n i$ 0as almos$ 'as$&, ,&co+&,y .%,in- $7& c,isis, so
$7& ,&co,. l&+&l 0as ac7i&+&. las$ y&a, E"."2 /illion EURF Es&& 8i-%,& 3F.

&igure 3" Securities trading (in million ED*) %ithout +BS securities on the Serbian Capital >ar$et


Source. SEC E2##F J E2#1#FV =%3o+i2 J 1ino+i2 E2#12F.

=%3o+i2 J 1ino+i2 E2#12F 5oin$&. o%$ $7a$ $7& $o$al $%,no+&, co+&,s %5 a 3&y s$,%c$%,al
c7an-&G ma,3&$ .ynamics 0as .&$&,min&. /y $7& &M%i$y ma,3&$ /&'o,& $7& c,isis, an. a'$&, i$

>ino!i?, @", et al", nalysis of the Serbian Capital >ar$et, E (2013, <ol" =/, +o, 1-2, 1-11)

7
/y $7& /on. ma,3&$. Cons&M%&n$ly, $7& s7a,& o' .&/$ s&c%,i$i&s ma,3&$ 0as inc,&as&. ',om
2#O in 2##8 $o 5,&.ominan$ !3O in 2#11. :7&y sai. $7a$ $7is .,ama$ic 'all o' &M%i$y ma,3&$
0as also ill%s$,a$&. /y $7& .a$a $7a$ $7& $o$al $%,no+&, o+&, $7& las$ $7,&& y&a,s 0as only 1.#"
/illion EUR.
Bon. ma,3&$ 0as &n$i,&ly consis$&. o' -o+&,nm&n$ .&/$ s&c%,i$i&s. S$a$& /o,,o0in- on
$7& ca5i$al ma,3&$ &K5losi+&ly ,os& T $7& $%,no+&, o' -o+&,nm&n$ /on.s ',om 2##8 $o 2#11
0as inc,&as&. 'o, 12 $im&s. :7an3s $o $7is, $7& ca5i$al ma,3&$ no$ only ,&co+&,&., /%$ also
si-ni'ican$ly ,os& E'o, 1H3 com5a,&. $o 2## an. 3.2 $im&s com5a,&. $o 2##8F. By $7is, $7&,&
0as no sM%&&Ain- o' co,5o,a$& /on.s, /&ca%s& $7&y 0&,& no$ iss%&., .&s5i$& $7& 5,o)&c$ions
E*&''&,son Ins$i$%$&, 2##5F E=%3o+i2 J 1ino+i2, 2#12F.
EM%i$y ma,3&$ .,o55&. 'o, almos$ 1# $im&s ',om 2## $o 2#1#. :7& 5,ima,y ca%s& o'
ma,3&$ 'all 0as no$ $7& -lo/al 'inancial c,isis
6
, /%$ $7& na$%,& o' $7& s7a,&s iss%&. 0i$7 $7&
5%,5os& o' 5,i+a$iAa$ion. 6,i+a$iAa$ions 7a+& .,ama$ically inc,&as&. $7& n%m/&, o'
s7a,&7ol.&,sV la,-& n%m/&,s o' s7a,&7ol.&, a,& no$ a s$a/l& o0n&,s7i5 s$,%c$%,& E1&--inson
J Bo%$c7o+a, 2###F. I$ is no$ s%,5,isin- 07y i$ cam& $o $7& 0i$7.,a0al o' $7& a$$,ac$i+&
EliM%i.F s7a,&s ',om $7& $%,no+&, a'$&, $7& &n. o' $7& $a3in- o+&, 5,oc&ss
7
o' $7& 5,i+a$iA&.
com5ani&s, i.&. conc&n$,a$ion EQi+3o+i2, 2##8F. A$ $7& &n., i$ co%l. /& s&&n $7a$ $7& &K5&c$&.
,a5i. -,o0$7 o' &M%i$y ma,3&$s ECi&/&,man J 9i,3n&ss, 1!!8F 0as no$ s%s$aina/l& 'o, a lon--
$&,m 5&,io. a'$&, $7& 5,i+a$iAa$ion E=%3o+i2 J 1ino+i2, 2#12F.
Un.&,.&+&lo5m&n$ o' $7& .om&s$ic ca5i$al ma,3&$ is also s7o0n /y $7& in'o,ma$ion $7a$
$7& $o$al $%,no+&, 0as /&lo0 1#O <D6 ENBS, 2#12aF. A 5,&.ominan$ s7a,& $,a.in- 0as .on&
in $7& BSE, 07il& $7& ,&s$ 0as in $7& O:C ESEC, 2#12F. A small &M%i$y ma,3&$ co%l. no$
si-ni'ican$ly &nco%,a-& $7& &conomic -,o0$7 in S&,/ia, 07ic7 is s$ill 'acin- $7& $,ansi$ion
5,o/l&ms. Nam&ly, <D6 7as /&&n no$ic&a/ly lo0&, .%,in- $7& 5,&+io%s y&a,s $7an in 1!8!
EEBRD, 2#11F, E=%3o+i2 J 1ino+i2, 2#12F.
=%3o+i2 J 1ino+i2 E2#12F s7o0&. $7a$ .&s5i$& a small +ol%m& $%,no+&, $7&,& 0as no
si-ni'ican$ ,&.%c& in ma,3&$ ca5i$aliAa$ion. By $7& BSE .a$a, s$oc3 ma,3&$ ca5i$aliAa$ion 0as
8.7 /illion EUR in 2##8, an. 7."3 /illion EUR in 2#11. :7&s& a%$7o,s sai. $7a$ 'all in
ca5i$aliAa$ion 'o, 1"O co%l. /& &K5lain&. only /y ,&s&,+&. s7a,&7ol.&,s, 07&,& many o'
$7&m 0&,& 0ai$in- 'o, $7& ma,3&$ ,&co+&,y $o iss%& $7& sal& o,.&,s. 8,om 2## $o 2#1#, $7&,&
0as ,&.%cin- o' 'o,&i-n in+&s$o,sN 5a,$ici5a$ion in $,a.in- 0i$7 all $7& s&c%,i$i&s in $7& BSE
E',om "8O $o 33O, ,&s5&c$i+&lyF.
Turno5er of #'$';
I
indices
:7& B&l-,a.& S$oc3 EKc7an-& 0as $7& 'i,s$ ,&-&s$a/lis7&. s$oc3 &Kc7an-& a'$&, $7& S&con.
Ro,l. Ra, in Eas$ E%,o5& E1!8!F. N&+&,$7&l&ss, %5 %n$il &a,ly 2##2, i$ &Kis$&. as an
o,-aniAa$ion 0i$7o%$ no,mal ,%l&s o' $7& -am&. Only .%,in- $7a$ y&a, $7& ma,3&$ /&-an $o
o5&,a$& in a mo,& o, l&ss s$an.a,. mann&,. :7& main class&s o' ass&$s $,a.&. on S&,/ian

6
Most of other European frontier emerging stock markets showed a great resilience to the adverse effects of the
financial crisis (Nikkenen et al., 2011).
7
Therefore, the turnover on equity market was the largest in the period 2002 2004 (Privatization Agency,
2005).
8
The Belgrade Stock Exchange, Serbia
Economic nalysis (2013, <ol" =/, +o" 1-2, 1-11)

8
ma,3&$ a,& s7a,&s iss%&. as a ,&s%l$ o' a 5,oc&ss o' insi.&, 5,i+a$iAa$ion mo.&l EQi+3o+i2 &$
al. 2##5F, EQi+3o+i2 J 1ino+i2, 2#1#F.
:7& B&l-,a.& S$oc3 EKc7an-& 7as calc%la$&. an. 5%/lis7&. $7& in.&K BECESline sinc&
A5,il 2, 2##7, as a /&nc7ma,3 'o, moni$o,in- /,oa. ma,3&$ mo+&m&n$s Ehttp://www.belex.rsF.
BECESline in.&K is .&sc,i5$i+&, in $7& s$a$is$ical s&ns&, an. no$ in+&s$i/l&. :7& in.&K
0&i-7$in- is /as&. on ma,3&$ ca5i$aliAa$ion. BECES15 is a ',&&-'loa$ ma,3&$ ca5i$aliAa$ion
0&i-7$&. 5,ic& in.&K, 07ic7 'ollo0s $7& mo+&m&n$s o' $7& 15 mos$ liM%i. s7a,&s $,a.&. /y
$7& con$in%o%s m&$7o. an. '%l'illin- c,i$&,ia 'o, incl%sion in $7& in.&K /as3&$
Ehttp://www.belex.rsF E1ino+i2 J Qi+3o+i2, 2#1#F.
R& %s& .a$a 'o, $7& $%,no+&, o' /o$7 BECES in.ic&s ',om $7& B&l-,a.& S$oc3 EKc7an-&
EBSEF 'o, $7& 5&,io.G Oc$o/&,, 2##5 H *an%a,y, 2#1#. In $7& :a/l& 3 is $7& c7an-& o' $%,no+&,
'o, /o$7 BECES in.ic&s $7a$ &ns%&. /y $7& 0o,l. &conomic c,isis. :7is $a/l& s7o0s $7a$ $7&
$%,no+&, o' $7& /o$7 BECES in.ic&s '&ll 'o, mo,& $7an 7#O ',om $7& o$7&, 7al' o' 2##8 $o $7&
&n. o' 2##!.

#able 3" #he a!erage !alue of the daily turno!er e'pressed in *S, for BE5E6 indices, before and
during the crisis, and its relati!e change

Turno5er ,5era9e J.1K.2KKL- 12..2KKI 1L..2KKI-J1.12.2KK. (elati5e chan9e
BECESline 1,!"!,#"5 2,5#8,"82 7#2,1#8 -72.#O
BECES15 8,777,#22 11,221,731 3,327,!72 -7#.3O
Source. BSE E authorFs calculationG =%3o+i2 J 1ino+i2 E2#12F.

D&s5i$& $7& &conomic c,isis, $7& ,&ason 'o, $7& .&c,&as& in $o$al $%,no+&,, an. in $%,no+&,
o' BECES in.ic&s is ,&.%c$ion in $7& n%m/&, o' s7a,&s .%& $o $7& 0i$7.,a0al o' a$$,ac$i+&
EliM%i.F s$oc3s ',om $7& ma,3&$, a'$&, $7& com5l&$ion o' $7& $a3&o+&, 5,oc&ss, o,
conc&n$,a$ion EQi+3o+i2, 2##8F.
In $7& c,isis con.i$ions, i$ is o/+io%s $7a$ $7& lac3 o' $,%s$ in $7& m&c7anism o' 5%/lis7in-
$7& 'ai, +al%& o' $7& 'inancial ass&$s, ca%s&. a 'all in $7& $%,no+&, an. a$ $7& sam& $im& a 'all
in ma,3&$ liM%i.i$y an. massi+& 0i$7.,a0al o' 'o,&i-n in+&s$o,s Es&& Qi+3o+i2 J 1ino+i2,
2#1#F.
:7& in+&s$o,s, &s5&cially ,&$ail in+&s$o,s, 7a+& $7& &K5&c$a$ion $7a$ $7&y can /&
&K5,o5,ia$&. /y $7& mana-&m&n$ o, mo,& in'o,m&. in+&s$o,s. :7&y also 7a+& ,&la$i+&ly lo0
.is5osa/l& incom& $o in+&s$ in $7& s$oc3 ma,3&$ an. limi$&. ,&so%,c& $o o/$ain in'o,ma$ion
E(7an-, 2#1#F. @& 5oin$&. o%$ $7a$ all $7&s& 'ac$o,s ,&s%l$ in $7& on a+&,a-& lo0 $,a.in-
ac$i+i$y in $7& &m&,-in- ma,3&$s E1ino+i2, 2#11F.
E,i2 E2#1#F $ol. $7a$ ,&+&n%&s ',om 5,i+a$iAa$ion, -,an$s an. 'o,&i-n .i,&c$ in+&s$m&n$s
7a+& .&clin&., som& &+&n .,i&. %5 0i$7 $7& inc,&as& o' c,isis. :7&,&'o,&, $7&,& is a slo0.o0n
in S&,/ian &conomic -,o0$7. :7is a%$7o, 5oin$&. o%$ $7a$ $7& .&+&lo5m&n$ o' $7& S&,/ian
ca5i$al ma,3&$ is an &K$,&m&ly im5o,$an$ iss%& an. in+ol+&s a +&,y s&,io%s an. ,&s5onsi/l&
a55,oac7. :7&,& a,& no n&0 l&-al ,&-%la$ions, $7& .&+&lo5m&n$ o' ins$i$%$ions is slo0, $7&,&
a,& no n&0 ins$,%m&n$s an. $7& $%,no+&, o' $7& &Kis$in- ins$,%m&n$s 7as /&&n ,&.%c&.. All
$7&s& 'ac$s m%s$ /& %n.&,s$oo. as an im5o,$an$ 0a,nin- EE,i2, 2#1#F, E1ino+i2, 2#11F.

>ino!i?, @", et al", nalysis of the Serbian Capital >ar$et, E (2013, <ol" =/, +o, 1-2, 1-11)

!
R&.4&5a-i2 J Ric7&$ E2##8F 5oin$&. o%$ $7a$ $7& $,ans'o,ma$ion o' $7& R&s$&,n Bal3an
co%n$,i&s &conomi&s in$o ma,3&$ &conomi&s co%l. no$ 7a+& $a3&n 5lac& 0i$7o%$ $7&
assis$anc& o' $7& 'o,&i-n ca5i$al. :7&s& a%$7o,s $ol. $7a$ $7& R&s$&,n Bal3an ,&-ion 7as /&&n
$,ans'o,m&. in$o a ma,3&$5lac& 0i$7 .ynamic -,o0$7, a$$,ac$in- a si-ni'ican$ amo%n$ o'
8o,&i-n Di,&c$ In+&s$m&n$s E8DIF. 8DI in $7& R&s$&,n Bal3ans a,& mos$ly conc&n$,a$&. in $7&
s&,+ic& s&c$o, E/an3s, $&l&comm%nica$ions, ins%,anc&F in non-$,a.a/l& in0a,. o,i&n$&.
s&c$o,s Econs$,%c$ions, ,&al-&s$a$&F ER&.4&5a-i2 J Ric7&$, 2##8F, E1ino+i2, 2#11F.
+onclusion
:7& ca5i$al ma,3&$ o' $7& R&5%/lic o' S&,/ia lac3s .&5$7, i$ is small illiM%i. ma,3&$ in
$,ansi$ion. :7&,& is no$ m%c7 5a5&,s in analys&s o' $7& S&,/ian ca5i$al ma,3&$. :7is 5a5&,
con$,i/%$&s $o $7is 'i&l. o' ,&s&a,c7. :7& 5a5&, analys&. $7& S&,/ian ',on$i&, ca5i$al ma,3&$.
R& %s&. .a$a ',om $7& B&l-,a.& S$oc3 EKc7an-& EBSEF, R&5%/lic o' S&,/ia S&c%,i$i&s
Commission ESECF, an. Na$ional Ban3 o' S&,/ia ENBSF. In analysis, 0& s7o0&. $7a$
-o+&,nm&n$ .&/$ s&c%,i$i&s E7OF 0&,& $7& .ominan$ s&-m&n$ on $7is ca5i$al ma,3&$ in $7&
o/s&,+&. 5&,io. E2##-2#11F. O%, ,&s%l$s s7o0&. $7a$ s7a,&s ma.& $7& ,&s$ o' $7is ma,3&$
E33OF, /&ca%s& $7&,& 0&,&nN$ any co,5o,a$& .&/$ s&c%,i$i&s" In c,is&s 5&,io. E2#11F
-o+&,nm&n$ .&/$ s&c%,i$i&s .omina$& on $7& ca5i$al ma,3&$ 0i$7 !3O. O$7&, s7a,&s ',om
5,i+a$iAa$ion 5,oc&ss ma3& a n&-li-i/l& 5a,$ o' $7& S&,/ian ma,3&$. So, $7& 5,i+a$iAa$ion
5,oc&ss in S&,/ia si-ni'ican$ly in'l%&nc&. on $7& '&a$%,&s an. +ola$ili$y o' $7is ma,3&$. O%,
,&s%l$s s7o0&. $7a$ $7& $%,no+&, .&c,&as&. 'o, o+&, 7#O 'o, /o$7 BECES in.ic&s, in $7is
5&,io. Ec,is&sF. @o0&+&,, ma,3&$ ca5i$aliAa$ion 0as no$ si-ni'ican$ly ,&.%c&. an. i$ 0as
a55,oKima$&ly 33O o' $7& <D6. :7%s, $7& S&,/ian &M%i$y ma,3&$ .,o55&. 'o, o+&, 1# $im&s
',om 2## $o 2#1#.
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,nali/a sr3s0o9 trCi:ta 0a3itala


)E0'ME + B!aH rad anali7ira srps$o trIiJte $apitala" :la!na $ara$teristi$a o!og trIiJta He da He
ono malo i i7ra7ito plit$o trIiJte" Ka anali7u smo $oristili podat$e sa Beograds$e ber7e (BB), LomisiHe
7a hartiHe od !rednosti *epubli$e SrbiHe (LM<*S) i +arodne ban$e SrbiHe (+BS)" Kapa7ili smo da He
$ri7a negati!no uticala na trIiJte $apitala u SrbiHi" Kbog o!e NinHenice, naJu anali7u smo podelili u d!a
pod-perioda. pre $ri7e (200/ 0 2001), i 7a !reme $ri7e (2002 0 2011)" +aJi re7ultati su po$a7ali da He
promet opao 7a pre$o 304 7a oba BE5E6 inde$sa, do$ He na celom trIiJtu $apitala 7abeleIen opora!a$
7ah!alHuHu?i e$sten7i!nom 7aduIi!anHu drIa!e" #rIiJna $apitali7aciHa a$ciHa He opala" *e7ultati anali7e
su po$a7ali da drIa!ne duIniN$e hartiHe od !rednosti dominiraHu posle $ri7e na trIiJtu $apitala (234 u
2011), do$ druge a$ciHe i7 pri!ati7aciHe Nine ne7natan deo trIiJta (trIiJte a$ciHa He opalo 10 puta od
200/ do 2010)" >i smo 7a$lHuNili da He pri!ati7aciHa u SrbiHi 7naNaHno uticala na osobine i !olatilnost
srps$og trIiJta $apitala"

&"J123E )E2'/ trIiJte $apitala, graniNno trIiJte, promet, B,;, BE5E6 inde$si, li$!idnost"


rticle history. R&c&i+&.G 1" 8&/,%a,y 2#13
Acc&5$&.G 12 1a,c7 2#13