Prepared by:
Ahmad Tubeileh
Corporate Finance Specialist
Mobile: 00962 79 6899911
Disclaimer
The information presented in this study has been obtained from related parties which
believed to be reliable. It makes no guarantee, representation or warranty as to its accuracy
or completeness and accepts no responsibility or liability in respect thereof or for any
reliance placed by any person on such information.
Index
Assumptions
Market Analysis
Capital Expenditures
Project Financing
Depreciation
Production & Revenues
Bill of Materials (BOM)
Manufacturing Expenses
General & Administrative Expenses
Employees
Profit & Loss Statement
Balance Sheet Statement
Cash Flow Statement
Cost of Capital
Financial Summary
Financial Ratios
Sensitivity Analysis
Scenarios Analysis
Break-Even Analysis
Assumptions
Index
1)
2)
3)
Market Analysis Assumptions: Current Consumption (Tons) = 17,000, forecasted growth rates (2008 - 2010) = 15.0% and for the remaining years is 8.0%
4)
The construction & preparation stage for the factory is assumed to be in Year 2008
5)
6)
7)
8)
The applied depreciation rates are according to the Jordanian Accounting Laws
9)
10) Two range of products were considered with different specifications (Product (1): 2.80m*1.20m*0.009m ,Product (2): 2.80m*1.20m*0.012m)
11) The production will be segmented 20%/80%, while the selling prices are assumed to be 5.25 JOD and 6.00 JOD for product 1 & 2 respectively.
12) All the production quantities is assumed to be sold
13) The production efficiency varies over the projection period to equal the targeted sold quantities
14) Selling and Distribution Expenses are assumed 0.4% as a percentage of Revenues.
15) The Financial Model disregard the export sales
16) Income Tax Rate: 15.0%
17) Woking Capital Assumptions: Accounts Receivable (30 Days), Raw Materials Inventory (30 Days) and Accounts Payable (45 Days)
18) Cost of Equity: calculated by using the CAPM model; assuming the Risk Free Rate (10Yrs US T.Bond) = 3.8%, Equity Risk Premium = 5.0% and the Country Risk Premium for Jordan = 3.2%
19) Terminal growth rate is assumed @ 3.0%
20) Financial Summary: two methods are used to calculate the capital budgeting indicators ==> Un-levered Free Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow to Equity
21) Terminal Value is calculated by using the Gordon Model
Market Analysis
Valuation Window
IRR
28.90%
NPV
4,469,724
Index
17,000
166.65
==> 1 GB Sqm
3.36
1.00
10.0
1,000
15.0%
8.0%
5.0%
2008
19,550
3,257,995
2009
22,483
3,746,694
2010
25,855
4,308,698
2011
27,923
4,653,394
2012
30,157
5,025,665
5.625 JOD/GB
10.05
sqm
sqm
KG
KG
5.63
1.67
1.67
166.65
2013
32,570
5,427,719
2014
34,198
5,699,105
2009
2009
35%
7,869
1,311,343
2010
60%
15,513
2,585,219
2011
75%
20,942
3,490,045
2012
75%
22,618
3,769,249
2013
75%
24,427
4,070,789
2014
75%
25,649
4,274,328
2015
75%
26,931
4,488,045
JOD
JOD
JOD
JOD
2015
35,908
5,984,060
7.00
8.00
8.90
10.05
75%
5.25
6.00
Capital Expenditures
Index
Valuation Window
IRR
28.90%
NPV
4,469,724
7.00%
JOD
757,000
1,300,000
1,269,300
90,000
140,000
172,841
248,941
3,978,082
2) Building
Hanger
Offices
Asphalt
Concrete
Hedge
Gates
Water, Electricity & Other Installations
Total Building Cost
3) Machines & Equipment
Equipment & Machines
Supportive Equipment
Pre-Operating Expenses
Total Machines & Equipment Cost
4) Vehicles
Total Vehicles Cost
20,000
65
1,300,000
Unit
2
M
2
M
2
M
2
M
M
#
-
500,000
207,000
50,000
757,000
90,000
Area
10,000
300
6,000
10,000
600
5
-
JOD/Unit
98
300
5
15
3
500
15,000
Total Cost
980,000
90,000
30,000
150,000
1,800
2,500
15,000
1,269,300
50,000
50,000
5,000
10,000
25,000
140,000
2009
2010
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,000
2,000
2011
0
30,000
2,000
32,000
2012
0
0
2,000
2,000
2013
0
30,000
2,000
32,000
2014
0
0
2,000
2,000
2015
0
0
2,000
2,000
Project Financing
Index
Valuation Window
IRR
28.90%
NPV
4,469,724
100%
0%
100%
Debt Schedule
Debt Amount
Debt Terms (Yrs)
Interest Rate
3,978,082
0
3,978,082
0
5.00
8.00%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Beg, Balance
Less: Repayment
End, Balance
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Interest Expense
0
0
172,841
3,805,241
0
3,978,082
0
34,735
173,173
19,994
0
0
507,540
173,398
106,105
2,000
0
809,677
177,073
60,984
32,000
0
873,380
178,498
28,876
2,000
0
936,709
182,173
26,152
32,000
0
952,810
183,598
21,894
2,000
0
971,819
172,398
23,131
2,000
0
187,915
572,833
893,766
1,021,003
1,060,730
1,112,514
1,119,086
Beg, Balance
Add: Cash Deficit
Less: Repayment
End, Balance
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Interest Expense
Bank Overdraft
Net Income
Add: Depreciation
Less: Additions to Working Capital
Less: Capital Expenditures
Less: Loan Installments
Add: Financing
Cash Surplus (Deficit)
Depreciation
Index
Amount
757,000
1,269,300
90,000
140,000
248,941
2,505,241
Rate
10%
3%
15%
15%
10%
2009
75,700
38,079
13,500
21,000
24,894
173,173
2010
75,700
38,079
13,500
21,000
24,894
173,173
2011
75,700
38,079
13,500
21,000
24,894
173,173
2012
75,700
38,079
13,500
21,000
24,894
173,173
2013
75,700
38,079
13,500
21,000
24,894
173,173
2014
75,700
38,079
13,500
21,000
24,894
173,173
2015
75,700
38,079
9,000
14,000
24,894
161,673
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Total
529,900
266,553
90,000
140,000
174,259
1,200,712
NBV
227,100
1,002,747
0
0
74,682
1,304,529
Total
NBV
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total Depreciation
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2009
Vehicles
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
0
30,000
0
30,000
0
0
Total Depreciation
2010
Total Depreciation
0
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2012
2013
2014
0
0
0
0
3,375
0
0
4,500
0
0
0
4,500
0
3,375
0
0
4,500
0
4,500
0
3,375
4,500
7,875
9,000
2009
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2011
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
225
0
300
225
0
300
300
225
0
300
300
300
225
0
300
300
300
300
225
225
525
825
1,125
1,425
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2015
0
0
4,500
0
4,500
0
0
9,000
2015
0
300
300
300
300
300
225
1,725
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Total
0
0
21,375
0
12,375
0
0
33,750
Total
0
1,725
1,425
1,125
825
525
225
5,850
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
NBV
0
0
8,625
0
17,625
0
0
26,250
NBV
0
275
575
875
1,175
1,475
1,775
6,150
Index
Valuation Window
IRR
28.90%
NPV
4,469,724
Production Capacity:
==> in Tons
3,000,000 Sq m
30,137
Total Revenues
Production Equation:
Production (KG)/Hr
Hrs/Day
Efficiency
Daily Production (KG)
Days/Year
Annual Production (KG)
Annual Production (Ton)
No. of Shifts Required
2009
7,869
551
8,420
27.9%
1.00
2010
15,513
1,086
16,599
55.1%
2.00
2011
20,942
1,466
22,408
74.4%
3.00
2012
22,618
1,583
24,201
80.3%
3.00
2013
24,427
1,710
26,137
86.7%
3.00
2014
25,649
1,795
27,444
91.1%
3.00
2015
26,931
1,885
28,816
95.6%
3.00
20%
80%
20%
80%
20%
80%
20%
80%
20%
80%
20%
80%
20%
80%
46,626
186,502
5.25
6.00
1,363,797
2009
4,186
24
27.9%
28,066
300
8,419,696
8,420
1.0
91,919
367,676
5.25
6.00
124,091
496,362
5.25
6.00
134,018
536,071
5.25
6.00
144,739
578,957
5.25
6.00
151,976
607,904
5.25
6.00
159,575
638,300
5.25
6.00
2,688,628
3,629,647
3,920,019
4,233,621
4,445,302
4,667,567
2010
4,186
24
55.1%
55,329
300
16,598,830
16,599
2.0
2011
4,186
24
74.4%
74,695
300
22,408,420
22,408
3.0
2012
4,186
24
80.3%
80,670
300
24,201,094
24,201
3.0
2013
4,186
24
86.7%
87,124
300
26,137,181
26,137
3.0
2014
4,186
24
91.1%
91,480
300
27,444,040
27,444
3.0
2015
4,186
24
95.6%
96,054
300
28,816,242
28,816
3.0
0%
0%
Valuation Window
28.90%
4,469,724
BOM Summary:
Description:
GB Liner
Gypsum Plaster
Water
Modified Starch
Foaming Agent
White Latex
Electricity
Diesel
Index
2009
UNIT
KG
KG
KG
KG
KG
KG
KW/Hr
Liter
Q
385,734
7,133,541
4,148,469
45,218
10,699
5,913
320,976
230,877
2010
JOD
3,086
428,012
1,245
2,713
642
3,548
128,390
133,332
700,967
Q
760,447
14,063,267
8,178,409
89,144
21,093
11,656
632,780
455,158
JOD
617
67,574
196
429
101
710
20,272
25,366
115,265
Q
152,089
2,220,282
1,291,094
14,099
3,330
2,331
99,913
86,591
JOD
2,469
360,439
1,048
2,284
541
2,838
108,118
107,966
585,702
Q
608,357
11,842,985
6,887,315
75,046
17,762
9,325
532,868
368,567
2011
JOD
6,084
843,796
2,454
5,349
1,266
6,994
253,112
262,854
1,381,907
Q
1,026,603
18,985,411
11,040,853
120,345
28,475
15,736
854,254
614,463
JOD
1,217
133,217
387
846
200
1,399
39,965
50,006
227,237
Q
205,321
2,997,381
1,742,977
19,033
4,496
3,147
134,882
116,898
JOD
4,867
710,579
2,066
4,503
1,066
5,595
213,147
212,847
1,154,670
Q
821,282
15,988,030
9,297,876
101,311
23,979
12,589
719,371
497,565
JOD
8,213
1,139,125
3,312
7,221
1,709
9,442
341,701
354,852
1,865,575
Consumption
1.546
22.575
13.127
0.143
0.034
0.024
1.016
0.880
Unit
KG
KG
KG
KG
KG
KG
KW/Hr
Liter
Cost
0.0080
0.0600
0.0003
0.0600
0.0600
0.6000
0.4000
0.5775
Total Cost
0.0124
1.3545
0.0039
0.0086
0.0020
0.0142
0.4063
0.5084
2.3104
Q
77,147
1,126,230
654,903
7,152
1,689
1,183
50,680
43,923
Unit
KG
KG
KG
KG
KG
KG
KW/Hr
Liter
Cost
0.0080
0.0600
0.0003
0.0600
0.0600
0.6000
0.4000
0.5775
Total Cost
0.0124
1.8062
0.0053
0.0114
0.0027
0.0142
0.5418
0.5410
2.9350
Q
308,587
6,007,311
3,493,566
38,067
9,010
4,730
270,295
186,954
2010
2011
JOD
1,643
179,843
523
1,142
270
1,888
53,953
67,509
306,770
Consumption
1.546
30.103
17.507
0.191
0.045
0.024
1.354
0.937
2010
2011
JOD
6,570
959,282
2,789
6,079
1,439
7,553
287,749
287,344
1,558,805
Valuation Window
28.90%
4,469,724
BOM Summary:
Description:
GB Liner
Gypsum Plaster
Water
Modified Starch
Foaming Agent
White Latex
Electricity
Diesel
2012
UNIT
KG
KG
KG
KG
KG
KG
KW/Hr
Liter
Q
1,108,731
20,504,244
11,924,121
129,972
30,753
16,995
922,594
663,620
2013
JOD
8,870
1,230,255
3,577
7,798
1,845
10,197
369,038
383,241
2,014,821
Q
1,197,430
22,144,583
12,878,051
140,370
33,213
18,355
996,401
716,710
JOD
1,774
194,230
565
1,233
291
2,039
58,269
72,909
331,311
Q
239,486
3,496,145
2,033,008
22,201
5,244
3,671
157,327
136,350
JOD
7,096
1,036,024
3,013
6,565
1,554
8,158
310,768
310,331
1,683,509
Q
957,944
18,648,438
10,845,042
118,170
27,969
14,684
839,075
580,360
2014
JOD
9,579
1,328,675
3,863
8,422
1,993
11,013
398,561
413,900
2,176,006
Q
1,257,301
23,251,813
13,521,953
147,389
34,874
19,273
1,046,221
752,545
JOD
1,916
209,769
610
1,332
315
2,203
62,931
78,742
357,816
Q
251,460
3,670,952
2,134,659
23,311
5,506
3,855
165,193
143,167
JOD
7,664
1,118,906
3,254
7,090
1,678
8,810
335,630
335,158
1,818,190
Q
1,005,841
19,580,860
11,387,294
124,078
29,368
15,418
881,029
609,378
2015
JOD
10,058
1,395,109
4,057
8,843
2,092
11,564
418,489
434,595
2,284,806
Q
1,320,166
24,414,403
14,198,051
154,758
36,618
20,236
1,098,533
790,173
JOD
2,012
220,257
640
1,399
330
2,313
66,077
82,679
375,707
Q
264,033
3,854,500
2,241,392
24,476
5,782
4,047
173,453
150,326
JOD
8,047
1,174,852
3,416
7,445
1,762
9,251
352,411
351,916
1,909,099
Q
1,056,133
20,559,903
11,956,659
130,282
30,836
16,189
925,080
639,847
JOD
10,561
1,464,864
4,259
9,285
2,197
12,142
439,413
456,325
2,399,047
Consumption
1.546
22.575
13.127
0.143
0.034
0.024
1.016
0.880
Unit
KG
KG
KG
KG
KG
KG
KW/Hr
Liter
Cost
0.0080
0.0600
0.0003
0.0600
0.0600
0.6000
0.4000
0.5775
Total Cost
0.0124
1.3545
0.0039
0.0086
0.0020
0.0142
0.4063
0.5084
2.3104
Q
221,746
3,237,171
1,882,415
20,556
4,856
3,399
145,673
126,250
Unit
KG
KG
KG
KG
KG
KG
KW/Hr
Liter
Cost
0.0080
0.0600
0.0003
0.0600
0.0600
0.6000
0.4000
0.5775
Total Cost
0.0124
1.8062
0.0053
0.0114
0.0027
0.0142
0.5418
0.5410
2.9350
Q
886,985
17,267,073
10,041,706
109,416
25,897
13,596
776,921
537,370
2013
2014
2015
JOD
2,112
231,270
672
1,469
347
2,428
69,381
86,813
394,492
Consumption
1.546
30.103
17.507
0.191
0.045
0.024
1.354
0.937
2013
2014
2015
JOD
8,449
1,233,594
3,587
7,817
1,850
9,713
370,032
369,512
2,004,554
Manufacturing Expenses
Index
Valuation Window
IRR
28.90%
NPV
4,469,724
2009
Maintenance & repair
2.00%
2010
10,582
2011
14,814
2012
19,047
2013
23,279
2014
29,628
2015
38,093
50,791
Hospitality
1,500
1,650
1,815
1,997
2,196
2,416
2,657
FALSE
Cleaning material
6,000
6,900
8,625
10,781
13,477
16,846
21,057
TRUE
FALSE
Fuel
9,000
10,350
12,938
16,172
20,215
25,269
31,586
TRUE
Clothing
2,000
2,200
2,420
2,662
2,928
3,221
3,543
FALSE
Car expenses
9,000
10,350
12,938
16,172
20,215
25,269
31,586
TRUE
Stationary
1,500
1,650
1,815
1,997
2,196
2,416
2,657
FALSE
Insurance policy
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,500
10,000
10,000
10,000
12,000
13,800
17,250
21,563
26,953
33,691
42,114
Others
10,000
11,000
12,100
13,310
14,641
16,105
17,716 FALSE
Transportation
66,582
78,714
95,947
116,432
142,449
173,325
213,707
TRUE
Index
Valuation Window
IRR
28.90%
NPV
4,469,724
Annual Increase
10%
==> Description:
Maintenance Expenses
Printing & Stationery Expenses
Postage,Tel. , & Fax Expenses
Electricity Expenses
Traveling Expenses
Cleaning Expenses
Bad Debts
0.30%
Transportation Expenses
Legal & Professional Consultancy
Computer Expenses
Hospitality Expenses
Training Expenses
Audit Fees
Government Expenses
Miscellaneous
Total General & Administrative Expenses
2009
1,945
3,500
3,000
5,000
6,000
1,500
4,091
1,500
2,000
2,400
1,200
1,500
1,500
1,000
5,000
41,136
2010
2,723
3,850
3,300
5,500
6,600
1,650
8,066
1,650
2,200
2,640
1,320
1,650
1,500
1,100
5,500
49,248
2011
3,500
4,235
3,630
6,050
7,260
1,815
10,889
1,815
2,420
2,904
1,452
1,815
1,500
1,210
6,050
56,545
2012
4,278
4,659
3,993
6,655
7,986
1,997
11,760
1,997
2,662
3,194
1,597
1,997
1,500
1,331
6,655
62,260
2013
5,445
5,124
4,392
7,321
8,785
2,196
12,701
2,196
2,928
3,514
1,757
2,196
1,500
1,464
7,321
68,840
2014
7,001
5,637
4,832
8,053
9,663
2,416
13,336
2,416
3,221
3,865
1,933
2,416
1,500
1,611
8,053
75,950
2015
9,335
6,200
5,315
8,858
10,629
2,657
14,003
2,657
3,543
4,252
2,126
2,657
1,500
1,772
8,858
84,362
Employees
Index
Valuation Window
IRR
28.90%
NPV
4,469,724
8.0%
25.0%
1) Direct Employees
Title
General Labor
==> No of Shifts
Annual Salary
Total Direct Labor Cost
No.
10
Monthly
Salary
220
Benefits
55
Total
275
Total
Annual
33,000
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1.00
33,000
33,000
2.00
35,640
71,280
3.00
38,491
115,474
3.00
41,570
124,711
3.00
44,896
134,688
2014
3.00
48,488
145,463
2015
3.00
52,367
157,101
2) Administrative Employees
Title
General Manger
Production Manager
Sales & Marketing Manager
Financial Manager
Maintenance Manager
Accounting Manager
IT Manager
Human Recourses Manager
Quality Control Manager
Quality Control & IT Engineer
Export Sales Executives
Local Sales Executives
Public Relation Manager
Accountants
Administrators
Secretary
Driver
Janitor
Guards
Total
No.
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
2
2
2
3
3
2
29
Administrative Employees
2009
303,300
Monthly
Salary
3,000
1,400
1,200
1,300
1,200
1,300
1,000
950
1,000
800
1,000
650
500
400
350
250
220
150
180
2010
327,564
Benefits
750
350
300
325
300
325
250
238
250
200
250
163
125
100
88
63
55
38
45
2011
353,769
Total
3,750
1,750
1,500
1,625
1,500
1,625
1,250
1,188
1,250
1,000
1,250
813
625
500
438
313
275
188
225
2012
382,071
Total
Annual
45,000
21,000
18,000
19,500
18,000
19,500
15,000
14,250
15,000
24,000
15,000
19,500
7,500
12,000
10,500
7,500
9,900
6,750
5,400
303,300
2013
412,636
2014
445,647
2015
481,299
Index
2008
Valuation Window
IRR
28.90%
NPV
4,469,724
Total Revenues
2009
1,363,797
Less:
Raw Materials Used in Production
Depreciation
Manufacturing Expenses
Employees Expenses
Cost of Goods Sold
0
0
0
0
0
700,967
152,173
66,582
33,000
952,722
1,381,907
152,173
78,714
71,280
1,684,074
1,865,575
155,548
95,947
115,474
2,232,543
2,014,821
156,673
116,432
124,711
2,412,637
2,176,006
160,048
142,449
134,688
2,613,192
2,284,806
161,173
173,325
145,463
2,764,768
2,399,047
156,673
213,707
157,101
2,926,528
411,075
1,004,553
1,397,104
1,507,382
1,620,429
1,680,533
1,741,039
30.1%
37.4%
38.5%
38.5%
38.3%
37.8%
37.3%
0
0
0
0
0
41,136
4,773
21,000
303,300
370,209
49,248
9,410
21,225
327,564
407,448
56,545
12,704
21,525
353,769
444,543
62,260
13,720
21,825
382,071
479,876
68,840
14,818
22,125
412,636
518,419
75,950
15,559
22,425
445,647
559,581
84,362
16,336
15,725
481,299
597,722
40,865
597,106
952,561
1,027,506
1,102,010
1,120,953
1,143,317
3.0%
22.2%
26.2%
26.2%
26.0%
25.2%
24.5%
0
40,865
0
597,106
0
952,561
0
1,027,506
0
1,102,010
0
1,120,953
0
1,143,317
Gross Profit
% of Revenues
Less:
General & Administrative Expenses
Selling & Distribution Expenses
Depreciation
Employees Expenses
Total Overheads
0.35%
Net Income
0
0
15.0%
2011
3,629,647
2012
3,920,019
2013
4,233,621
2014
4,445,302
2015
4,667,567
6,130
89,566
142,884
154,126
165,302
168,143
171,497
34,735
507,540
809,677
873,380
936,709
952,810
971,819
2.5%
18.9%
22.3%
22.3%
22.1%
21.4%
20.8%
34,735
542,275
1,351,952
2,225,333
3,162,041
4,114,851
5,086,670
% of Revenues
Retained Earnings
2010
2,688,628
Index
Valuation Window
IRR
28.90%
NPV
4,469,724
Assets
Current Assets:
Cash
Accounts Receivable
Inventory
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0
0
172,841
0
172,841
187,915
112,093
165,785
2,242
468,035
760,748
220,983
245,613
4,420
1,231,764
1,654,514
298,327
287,933
5,967
2,246,740
2,675,517
322,193
311,049
6,444
3,315,203
3,736,246
347,969
330,981
6,959
4,422,155
4,848,760
365,367
348,676
7,307
5,570,111
5,967,847
383,636
367,399
7,673
6,726,554
3,805,241
0
3,805,241
3,805,241
3,805,241
173,173
3,632,068
3,632,068
3,807,241
346,571
3,460,670
3,460,670
3,839,241
523,644
3,315,597
3,315,597
3,841,241
702,142
3,139,099
3,139,099
3,873,241
884,316
2,988,926
2,988,926
3,875,241
1,067,914
2,807,327
2,807,327
3,877,241
1,240,312
2,636,929
2,636,929
3,978,082
4,100,103
4,692,433
5,562,337
6,454,301
7,411,081
8,377,438
9,363,483
Current Liabilities:
Bank Overdraft
Accounts Payable
Other Current Liabilities
Current Portion of LTD
Total Current Liabilities
0
0
0
0
0
0
86,421
864
0
87,285
0
170,372
1,704
0
172,076
0
230,002
2,300
0
232,302
0
248,403
2,484
0
250,887
0
268,275
2,683
0
270,957
0
281,688
2,817
0
284,505
0
295,773
2,958
0
298,731
Non-Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt
Less: Current Portion of LTD
Ending Balance
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3,978,082
0
3,978,082
3,978,082
34,735
4,012,818
3,978,082
542,275
4,520,358
3,978,082
1,351,952
5,330,034
3,978,082
2,225,333
6,203,415
3,978,082
3,162,041
7,140,123
3,978,082
4,114,851
8,092,933
3,978,082
5,086,670
9,064,752
3,978,082
4,100,103
4,692,433
5,562,337
6,454,301
7,411,081
8,377,438
9,363,483
Non-Current Assets:
Fixed Assets
Less: Accum. Depreciation
Fixed Assets (NBV)
Total Non-Current Assets
Total Assets
Owners Equity:
Paid in Capital
Retained Earnings
Total Owners Equity
Unit
Sales
RM
COGS
A/R
RM
A/P
365
30
30
20
2.0%
45
1.0%
2008
0
172,841
0
0
0
0
172,841
172,841
2009
112,093
113,581
52,204
2,242
86,421
864
192,835
19,994
2010
220,983
153,335
92,278
4,420
170,372
1,704
298,940
106,105
2011
298,327
165,602
122,331
5,967
230,002
2,300
359,924
60,984
2012
322,193
178,850
132,199
6,444
248,403
2,484
388,800
28,876
2013
347,969
187,792
143,189
6,959
268,275
2,683
414,952
26,152
2014
365,367
197,182
151,494
7,307
281,688
2,817
436,845
21,894
2015
383,636
207,041
160,358
7,673
295,773
2,958
459,976
23,131
Index
2008
Net Income
Add: Depreciation
Changes in:
Accounts Receivable
Inventory
Other Current Assets
Accounts Payable
Other Current Liabilities
Cash Flow from Operating Activities
0
0
0
(172,841)
0
0
0
(172,841)
2009
34,735
173,173
2010
507,540
173,398
(112,093)
7,056
(2,242)
86,421
864
187,915
(108,890)
(79,828)
(2,178)
83,951
840
574,833
(2,000)
(2,000)
2011
809,677
177,073
2012
873,380
178,498
2013
936,709
182,173
2014
952,810
183,598
2015
971,819
172,398
(77,344)
(42,320)
(1,547)
59,630
596
925,766
(23,866)
(23,116)
(477)
18,400
184
1,023,003
(25,775)
(19,932)
(516)
19,872
199
1,092,730
(17,398)
(17,695)
(348)
13,414
134
1,114,514
(18,268)
(18,723)
(365)
14,084
141
1,121,086
(32,000)
(32,000)
(2,000)
(2,000)
(32,000)
(32,000)
(2,000)
(2,000)
(2,000)
(2,000)
Capital Expenditures
Cash Flow from Investing Activities
(3,805,241)
(3,805,241)
0
0
Bank Overdraft
Loan
Paid in Capital
Cash Flow from Financing Activities
0
0
3,978,082
3,978,082
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
187,915
0
187,915
572,833
187,915
760,748
893,766
760,748
1,654,514
1,021,003
1,654,514
2,675,517
1,060,730
2,675,517
3,736,246
1,112,514
3,736,246
4,848,760
1,119,086
4,848,760
5,967,847
Cost of Capital
Index
100%
0%
1) Cost of Debt:
Interest Rate
Tax Rate
==> Cost of Debt
8.00%
15.00%
6.80%
2) Cost of Equity:
US 10Yrs T.Bonds Rate
Un-Levered Beta
==> Levered Beta
Equity Risk Premium
Country Risk Premium (Jordan)
==> Cost of Equity
3.76%
1.19
1.19
5.00%
3.18%
12.89%
12.89%
3.00%
Valuation Window
IRR
28.90%
NPV
4,469,724
Financial Summary
Index
2008
0
0
172,841
3,805,241
0
(3,978,082)
(3,978,082)
2009
214,038
6,130
19,994
0
0
187,915
166,457
2010
770,504
89,566
106,105
2,000
0
572,833
449,480
2011
1,129,634
142,884
60,984
32,000
0
893,766
621,222
2012
1,206,005
154,126
28,876
2,000
0
1,021,003
628,624
2013
1,284,183
165,302
26,152
32,000
0
1,060,730
578,509
2014
1,304,551
168,143
21,894
2,000
0
1,112,514
537,467
2015
1,315,715
171,497
23,131
2,000
11,653,717
12,772,804
5,466,048
2009
187,915
0
0
187,915
166,457
2010
572,833
0
0
572,833
449,480
2011
893,766
0
0
893,766
621,222
2012
1,021,003
0
0
1,021,003
628,624
2013
1,060,730
0
0
1,060,730
578,509
2014
1,112,514
0
0
1,112,514
537,467
2015
1,119,086
0
17,621,564
18,740,650
8,019,953
4,469,724
28.90%
6.18
2008
0
3,978,082
0
(3,978,082)
(3,978,082)
7,023,629
34.14%
Financial Ratios
Index
UNIT
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Times
JOD
%
5.36
192,835
14.1%
7.16
298,940
11.1%
9.67
359,924
9.9%
13.21
388,800
9.9%
16.32
414,952
9.8%
19.58
436,845
9.8%
22.52
459,976
9.9%
Times
Days
Times
Days
Days
Times
Days
Days
Times
12.17
30
18.25
20
50
8.11
45
5
0.33
12.17
30
18.25
20
50
8.11
45
5
0.57
12.17
30
18.25
20
50
8.11
45
5
0.65
12.17
30
18.25
20
50
8.11
45
5
0.61
12.17
30
18.25
20
50
8.11
45
5
0.57
12.17
30
18.25
20
50
8.11
45
5
0.53
12.17
30
18.25
20
50
8.11
45
5
0.50
%
%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
na
30.1%
3.0%
15.7%
2.5%
1.0%
0.9%
97%
37.4%
22.2%
28.7%
18.9%
12.7%
11.2%
35%
38.5%
26.2%
31.1%
22.3%
17.1%
15.2%
8%
38.5%
26.2%
30.8%
22.3%
15.9%
14.1%
8%
38.3%
26.0%
30.3%
22.1%
14.9%
13.1%
5%
37.8%
25.2%
29.3%
21.4%
13.4%
11.8%
5%
37.3%
24.5%
28.2%
20.8%
12.2%
10.7%
1) Liquidity Ratios:
Current Ratio
Working Capital (Excluding Cash)
WC/Sales
2) Activity Ratios:
Accounts Receivable Turnover
Days Sales Outstanding (DSO)
Finished Goods Turnover
Finished Goods Cycle
Operating Cycle
Accounts Payable Turnover
Payables Payment
Cash Cycle
Total Assets Turnover
3) Leverage Ratios:
Debt to Assets
Debt to Equity
4) Profitability Ratios:
Growth Rate in Sales
Gross Profit Margin
EBIT Margin
EBITDA Margin
Net Income Margin
Return on Assets (ROA)
Return on Equity (ROE)
Sensitivity Analysis
Index
Current MKT
Consumption (Tons)
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
4,469,724
(777,239)
7,958
575,180
1,361,762
2,129,923
2,891,013
3,644,185
4,469,724
5,130,837
6,009,176
6,871,976
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
3%
157,642
377,928
602,202
567,074
799,437
991,832
1,232,431
1,414,714
1,663,697
1,916,927
6%
715,867
955,967
1,156,347
1,405,182
1,595,956
1,853,688
2,115,929
2,382,718
2,584,536
2,860,544
9%
1,540,529
1,739,107
2,004,902
2,205,908
2,481,290
2,761,530
3,046,673
3,336,761
3,631,839
3,931,951
12%
2,324,639
2,530,702
2,819,054
3,112,581
3,411,332
3,715,354
4,024,694
4,339,401
4,659,520
4,820,674
3,209,820
3,516,416
3,828,565
4,146,317
4,469,724
4,798,836
4,969,280
5,309,959
5,709,297
6,061,747
4,223,051
4,554,273
4,891,494
5,070,342
5,419,725
5,828,072
6,189,839
6,595,141
6,969,513
7,350,272
21%
5,288,484
5,481,191
5,897,592
6,267,719
6,681,693
7,065,053
7,455,120
7,851,952
8,289,027
8,699,571
24%
6,221,603
6,605,964
7,039,609
7,437,954
7,881,616
8,294,204
8,714,009
9,141,095
9,344,100
9,785,944
27%
30%
7,450,895
7,863,833
8,284,249
8,712,212
9,181,826
9,625,090
9,844,679
10,303,520
10,762,036
11,215,765
8,714,836
9,157,734
9,608,653
9,836,237
10,303,419
10,770,625
11,254,366
11,725,531
12,226,127
12,735,263
* Market Shares
4,469,724
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
10%
3,715,243
3,786,165
3,801,261
3,870,996
3,940,732
4,010,467
4,080,203
4,149,938
4,219,673
* Capital Expenditures
Contingency Rate
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
4,469,724
4,541,168
4,505,446
4,469,724
4,434,002
4,398,279
4,362,557
4,326,835
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
17.0%
18.0%
19.0%
20.0%
4,469,724
4,760,938
4,615,331
4,469,724
4,324,117
4,178,509
4,032,902
3,887,295
3,577,262
3,431,655
3,285,385
3,138,907
2,992,430
2,845,952
2,752,275
2,605,797
2,459,320
* Waste percentage
Waste %
15%
3,794,234
3,865,155
3,880,251
3,949,986
4,019,722
4,089,457
4,159,193
4,228,928
4,298,664
20%
3,873,224
3,944,145
3,959,241
4,028,977
4,098,712
4,168,447
4,238,183
4,307,918
4,377,654
25%
3,952,214
4,023,135
4,038,231
4,107,967
4,177,702
4,247,438
4,317,173
4,386,909
4,456,644
4,031,204
4,102,126
4,117,221
4,186,957
4,256,692
4,326,428
4,396,163
4,465,899
4,535,634
4,104,764
4,175,686
4,190,782
4,260,517
4,330,253
4,399,988
4,469,724
4,539,459
4,609,195
40%
4,171,341
4,242,263
4,257,359
4,327,094
4,396,830
4,466,565
4,536,300
4,606,036
4,675,771
45%
4,212,888
4,283,810
4,298,906
4,368,641
4,438,376
4,508,112
4,577,847
4,647,583
4,717,318
50%
4,279,465
4,350,386
4,365,482
4,435,218
4,504,953
4,574,689
4,644,424
4,714,160
4,783,895
* Product Segmentation
4,469,724
Product (2):
2.80m*1.20m*0.012m
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
20%
30%
Increase (Decrease)
in RM Prices
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
4,302,843
4,336,219
4,369,595
4,402,971
4,436,348
4,469,724
-10%
3,063,048
2,279,393
1,495,738
712,083
(71,572)
0.32%
0.35%
0.40%
0.48%
0.65%
80%
4,269,467
70%
4,469,724
4,480,287
4,469,724
4,453,878
4,429,581
4,378,557
6,027,720
5,248,722
4,469,724
3,690,726
2,907,844
7,508,426
6,729,428
5,950,430
5,171,432
4,392,434
10%
8,989,132
8,210,134
7,431,136
6,652,138
5,873,140
* Working Capital
4,469,724
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
20
30
40
4,593,783
4,518,519
4,443,254
4,367,990
4,292,726
4,217,461
4,142,197
4,066,932
4,469,724
4,394,459
4,319,195
4,243,930
4,168,666
4,093,402
4,018,137
3,942,873
4,345,664
4,270,400
4,195,135
4,119,871
4,044,607
3,969,342
3,894,078
3,818,813
10.89%
11.89%
5,303,660
5,988,052
6,845,909
7,952,747
9,435,363
4,344,977
4,874,390
5,522,893
6,335,764
7,384,560
70
4,097,545
4,022,281
3,947,016
3,871,752
3,796,488
3,721,223
3,645,959
3,570,694
3,973,486
3,898,221
3,822,957
3,747,693
3,672,428
3,597,164
3,521,899
3,446,635
Cost of Capital
12.89%
13.89%
14.89%
15.89%
3,550,358
3,967,833
4,469,724
5,084,514
5,855,127
2,311,191
2,582,919
2,900,351
3,276,076
3,727,775
1,819,456
2,042,770
2,300,730
2,602,078
2,958,766
* Cost of Capital
4,469,724
Growth Rate
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2,881,515
3,216,041
3,612,000
4,088,023
4,671,128
80
3,849,426
3,774,162
3,698,897
3,623,633
3,548,369
3,473,104
3,397,840
3,322,576
90
3,725,367
3,650,102
3,574,838
3,499,574
3,424,309
3,349,045
3,273,780
3,198,516
Scenarios Analysis
Index
Note: Please click on the deactivate button after finishing from the analysis and before moving to other sheets
MKT
Consumption MKT G.R 2008
(Tons)
- 2010
1
Base Case
Best Case
Worst Case
Performance Measures:
Revenues
Net Profit
Project NPV
Project IRR
MKT G.R
2011 - 2013
1st Yr MKT
Share
2nd Yr Market
Share
Waste
Product (1) %
of Total
Inc (Dec) in
S.P
Inc (Dec) in
RM Prices
17,000
17,000
15,000
15.0%
15.0%
12.0%
8.0%
10.0%
7.0%
35.0%
50.0%
35.0%
60.0%
75.0%
60.0%
7.0%
5.0%
8.0%
20.0%
15.0%
20.0%
0.0%
5.0%
-3.0%
0.0%
0.0%
3.0%
17,000
15.0%
8.0%
35.0%
60.0%
7.0%
20.0%
0.0%
0.0%
2009
1,363,797
34,735
4,469,724
28.90%
2010
2,688,628
507,540
2011
3,629,647
809,677
2012
3,920,019
873,380
2013
4,233,621
936,709
2014
4,445,302
952,810
2015
4,667,567
971,819
WACC
12.89%
11.89%
13.89%
12.89%
Break-Even Analysis
Index
2009
Expected Production (Tons)
Total Revenues
Variable Costs:
RM Purchases
Variable Manufacturing Expenses
Direct Employees Expenses
Selling & Distribution Expenses
Bad Debts
Overdraft Interest Expense
Income Tax
Total Variable Costs
==> Total Fixed Costs
Break-Even Point (Tons)
Waste @ 7%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
15,513
20,942
22,618
24,427
25,649
26,931
1,363,797
2,688,628
3,629,647
3,920,019
4,233,621
4,445,302
4,667,567
700,967
36,000
33,000
4,773
4,091
0
6,130
784,962
544,099
1,381,907
41,400
71,280
9,410
8,066
0
89,566
1,601,629
579,459
1,865,575
51,750
115,474
12,704
10,889
0
142,884
2,199,275
620,695
2,014,821
64,688
124,711
13,720
11,760
0
154,126
2,383,826
662,813
2,176,006
80,859
134,688
14,818
12,701
0
165,302
2,584,374
712,538
2,284,806
101,074
145,463
15,559
13,336
0
168,143
2,728,382
764,110
2,399,047
126,343
157,101
16,336
14,003
0
171,497
2,884,327
811,421
7,451
522
8,977
628
10,737
752
11,609
813
12,616
883
13,600
952
14,607
1,023
7,972
9,605
11,488
12,421
13,499
14,552
15,630
26.5%
In Quantities:
Product (1): 2.44m*1.22m*0.009m
Product (2): 2.44m*1.22m*0.012m
2010
7,869
44,149
176,596
31.9%
53,192
212,768
38.1%
63,619
254,476
41.2%
68,785
275,139
44.8%
74,754
299,016
48.3%
80,587
322,348
51.9%
86,554
346,215
Tons
11,488
7,972
2009
12,421
13,499
14,552
15,630
9,605
2010
2011
2012
Year
2013
2014
2015
Cost Analysis
Index
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
5.25
2.47
0.23
0.61
1.19
0.15
0.02
0.00
0.02
4.69
2.47
0.14
0.31
0.71
0.09
0.02
0.00
0.16
3.90
2.47
0.13
0.23
0.62
0.07
0.02
0.00
0.19
3.74
2.47
0.14
0.22
0.62
0.08
0.02
0.00
0.19
3.74
2.47
0.16
0.21
0.62
0.08
0.02
0.00
0.19
3.75
2.47
0.19
0.20
0.64
0.08
0.02
0.00
0.18
3.78
2.47
0.22
0.18
0.66
0.09
0.02
0.00
0.18
3.81
0.56
10.7%
1.35
25.7%
1.51
28.8%
1.51
28.8%
1.50
28.7%
1.47
28.0%
1.44
27.5%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
6.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
6.00
3.14
0.30
0.78
1.51
0.18
0.02
0.00
0.03
5.95
3.14
0.18
0.39
0.91
0.11
0.02
0.00
0.20
4.96
3.14
0.16
0.30
0.79
0.10
0.02
0.00
0.24
4.75
3.14
0.18
0.28
0.79
0.10
0.02
0.00
0.24
4.75
3.14
0.21
0.26
0.79
0.10
0.02
0.00
0.24
4.76
3.14
0.24
0.25
0.81
0.10
0.02
0.00
0.23
4.80
3.14
0.28
0.23
0.84
0.11
0.02
0.00
0.22
4.84
0.05
0.8%
1.04
17.4%
1.25
20.9%
1.25
20.9%
1.24
20.7%
1.20
20.0%
1.16
19.4%