n

Introduction
Antarctica, the fifth-largest continent, is centered on the
South Pole and is almost entirely covered with a thick sheet
of ice. The Antarctic ice sheet is 1.5 mi (2.5 km) thick on
average andcontains about 7millionmi
3
(29millionkm
3
) of
ice. Antarcticas ice holds 90% of the worlds freshwater,
enough to raise sea level worldwide by 200 ft (61 m), if it
This NASA image of the full Earth, as viewed from space during the Apollo 17 mission in 1972, shows
part of Antarcticas south polar ice cap at that time. AP Images.
43
Antarctica: Melting
were all to melt. Although total melting is highly unlikely,
some melting is occurring as global warming allows temper-
atures to rise above freezing across much of Antarctica dur-
ing the summer months of the Southern Hemisphere.
Scientists predicted as recently as 2001 that global warming
might actually increase the amount of water stored on the
Antarctic ice sheet by increasing snowfall, yet scientists
announced in 2006 that the Antarctic ice sheet is, in fact,
melting faster than it is being replenished by snowfall. Over-
all, Antarctic climate remains poorly understood as of 2008.
n
Historical Background
and Scientific Foundations
Until the nineteenth century, Antarctica was not visited
by human beings. A series of exploratory voyages starting
in 1820 confirmed the presence of land near the South
Pole, an idea that had long been a subject of specula-
tion. In the early twentieth century, overland expeditions
reached the South Pole, and in the 1930s airplanes began
to be used to explore the continent. Year-round scientific
stations have been maintained in Antarctica since the
1950s, and knowledge of the continent has been greatly
increased by satellite observations since the 1970s.
Antarcticas inaccessibility, size, and thick ice covering
make it difficult to study, andits role inglobal climate is only
partly understood. Inrecent years there has beenuncertainty
about whether Antarctica was gaining overall ice mass or
losing it, and about whether global warming would cause
Antarctica to gain ice mass through increased snowfall faster
than it lost ice mass by melting, or the reverse. Antarctica,
unlike the other continents, has shown little change during
the recent period of rapid global warming.
In 2005, data from NASAs QuikScat satellite, which
can distinguish between frozen and melted water by bounc-
ing radar pulses off Earths surface, showed that an area
the size of California had experienced surface snowmelt
in January of that year. This was the largest Antarctic snow-
melt seen in some three decades of satellite observation.
In 2002 scientists were shocked when the Larsen B ice shelfan area in Antarctica the size of Rhode Island
weighing some 500 billion tonsshattered and separated. It had existed since the last Ice Age, some
12,000 years ago. AP Images.
44 CLI MATE CHANGE: I N CONTEXT
Antarctica: Melting
Although the 2005 melt event was temporary and did not
directly contribute to overall loss of ice mass, scientists ana-
lyzing the QuikScat data asserted that it proved that parts of
Antarctica are showing the first impacts of global warming.
In 2006, new evidence convinced many scientists that
the Antarctic ice sheet is melting faster than it is growing.
In 2005, scientists analyzed three years of data from satel-
lites measuring the force of gravity over the Greenland and
Antarctic ice sheets. Loss of ice mass due to melting, or
gain due to snowfall, can be measured as decreases or
increases in gravitational pull. Gravitational measurements
showed that both the Greenland ice sheet and the Antarc-
tic ice sheet are melting faster than had been thought. The
Antarctic ice sheet is losing 36 mi
3
(152 km
3
) of ice per
year, despite increasing ice thickness over East Antarctica.
If this trend is sustained over the long term, it will overturn
the prediction, made by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001, that Antarctica should
gain mass during the twenty-first century.
n
Impacts and Issues
In 2006, taking the latest gravimetric and altitude-measure-
ment data into account, the IPCC said that it was highly
likely (more than 90% probable) that melting of the Green-
land and Antarctic ice sheets had contributed to sea level rise
from1993 to 2003. Scientists also point out that uncertain-
ties about the present speed and future course of melting
remain, although these uncertainties are decreasing.
The main result to be feared fromice-sheet melting is
sea-level rise, which could endanger coastal settlements
around the world. Sea levels have been stable for most of
the last 3,000 years, but began to rise at 0.040.08 in (12
mm) per year in the late 1800s. Since 1993, the average
rate of rise has been faster, about 0.1 in (3 mm) per year,
but as of 2007 it was still uncertain whether this acceler-
ation would prove to be long-term or short-term.
Over the last 20,000years, the West Antarctic ice sheet
has lost two-thirds of its mass and raised sea levels by 33 ft
(10 m). Complete melting of the sheet, where most of
Antarcticas ice loss is presently happening, would take
many years, but could raise sea level by another 20 ft (6 m).
SEE ALSO Antarctica: Observed Climate Changes; Ant-
arctica: Role in Global Climate.
B I B L I O G R A P H Y
Periodicals
Cazenave, Anny. How Fast Are the Ice Sheets Melting?
Science 314 (2006): 12501252.
Eilperin, Juliet. Antarctic Ice Sheet Is Melting
Rapidly. Washington Post (March 3, 2006): A01.
Shepherd, Andrew, and Duncan Wingham. Recent
Sea-Level Contributions of the Antarctic and
Greenland Ice Sheets. Science 315 (2007):
15291532.
Velicogna, Isabella, and John Wahr. Measurements of
Time-Variable Gravity Show Mass Loss in
Antarctica. Science 311 (2006): 17541756.
Web Sites
Mission News: NASA Finds Vast Regions of West
Antarctica Melted in Recent Past. National
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA),
May 15, 2007. <http://www.nasa.gov/vision/
earth/lookingatearth/arctic-20070515.html>
(accessed August 10, 2007).
Larry Gilman
WORDS TO KNOW
GRAVIMETRIC: Having to do with the measurement of gravity.
Gravimetric data fromsatellites can reveal changes in large
masses of ice onEarths surface: in2006, such data confirmed
that Greenlands ice cap was melting faster than expected.
ICE SHEET: Glacial ice that covers at least 19,500 square mi
(50,000 square km) of land and that flows in all directions,
covering and obscuring the landscape below it.
SEA LEVEL: The datum against which land elevation and sea
depth are measured. Mean sea level is the average of high
and low tides.
IN CONTEXT: MELTING AT
EARTHS POLES
Polar melting is a problem in both northern and southern polar
regions. In August 2007, a month before annual Arctic sea-ice
melting normally peaks, a record had already been set for
shrinkage of the north polar ice cap. No summer since 1979,
when satellites first allowed accurate tracking of the annual
melting, recorded such a large loss of ice.
WilliamChapman, an expert in the region at the University of
Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, said that the melting rate in June and
July of 2007 had been incredible. Arctic sea-ice melting is predicted
to have many impacts, including a much warmer Arctic region,
increased Arctic coastal erosion, declines in polar bear populations,
damage to traditional hunting practices of indigenous Arctic peo-
ples, disruption of large-scale ocean circulations, and more.
CLI MATE CHANGE: I N CONTEXT 45
Antarctica: Melting