HASKAYNE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Managerial Decision Modeling

Fall 2014, MGST 613 L01
Outline

INSTRUCTOR Diane Bischak, PhD
TELEPHONE 403.220.3368
OFFICE SH 126
EMAIL diane.bischak@haskayne.ucalgary.ca
OFFICE HOURS By appointment only
WEBSITE https://d2l.ucalgary.ca
LECTURE LOCATION SH 257
LECTURE TIMES Wednesday, 12 noon 2:45 pm
TUTORIAL Fridays/Saturdays: See D2L website for schedule


COURSE OVERVIEW

In this course you will learn how to apply modeling techniques from the field of
management science decision trees, Monte Carlo simulation, and optimization
as well as procedures for statistical data analysis and forecasting that can be
utilized to provide insight into managerial decision problems (and their
potential solutions) in a wide range of business situations. These techniques
and procedures are also collectively known as business analytics.

This course is listed under Management Studies (MGST) because the
approaches and techniques for decision-making that you will learn in this course
are useful throughout the firm, within many functional areas, such as
marketing, finance, and operations.

COURSE OBJECTIVES

The objectives of this course include: (1) to introduce you to tools from
management science and statistics that will help you to tackle difficult
managerial decision problems, (2) to improve your ability to extract structure
from ambiguous managerial problems and to gain insight from your analysis of
managerial data, (3) to introduce you to the basic concepts of modeling in
spreadsheets, and (4) to improve your ability to communicate the results of
quantitative analyses effectively (and persuasively) to others.

COURSE MATERIALS The required textbook is. Business Analytics: Methods, Models, and Decisions
(1
st
Edition), by J.R. Evans, Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson, 2013, ISBN-13: 978-
0-13-295061-9. It is available from the U of C bookstore or as an e-TextBook on
CourseSmart at
http://www.coursesmart.com/business-analytics

IMPORTANT: All the textbook spreadsheet examples can be found on the

MGST 613 Fall 2014 MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION | 2
textbook student resource centre as a zip file for download at:
http://wps.prenhall.com/bp_evans_bus_1/224/57481/14715253.cw/index.html

Three cases will also be assigned, as listed in the course schedule below. Each
student must follow copyright laws and purchase his/her own copy of the case.
Ivey cases can be purchased at www.iveycases.com and Darden cases at
https://store.darden.virginia.edu/.

Please bring your laptop computer to every class session. There will be a
number of in-class activities that will require the use of computers. As many of
these activities will be group activities, it will often be advantageous for more
than one person to work on a single computer. If you cannot bring a laptop, or if
someone else cannot bring one, please be prepared to share with other
students (this is also a good way to learn).


GRADE DISTRIBUTION


Assignments (4 @ 5%) 20%
Cases (3 @ 5%, pass/fail) 15%
Midterm Exam 30%
Final Exam 35%
TOTAL 100%

TEAMS


Assignments and cases will be done in teams. Teams of three students will be
randomly assigned on the first day of class (if the number of students in the
class is not divisible by three, there will be one team of two or four students).
New teams will be assigned after the midterm. The assignments and cases will
be done in these teams.

Each team will submit a single copy of each assignment or case, and each team
member will receive the same mark.

NOTE CAREFULLY: teams may not work with other teams. You may discuss
assignment/case interpretation and solution strategies with other classmates,
but what you turn in must be the work of your own team.

You should manage your team so that all team members have full
understanding of each assignment/case, as failure to understand the
assignment/case increases the probability of a failing grade in the course.

ASSIGNMENTS

There will be four assignments worth 5% each, for a total of 20%. The
assignment files are due by the beginning of class on the due date. Submit your
teams assignment through the link on the Assignments page of the course D2L
web site.

The assignments are graded partly on the basis of your data presentation and
spreadsheet organization skills. If the assignment marker finds it difficult to
understand what you have done, you will lose marks. To make it easy to give
you the marks you deserve, please communicate clearly and concisely.

Late assignments will not be graded. Solutions will be placed on the MGST 613

MGST 613 Fall 2014 MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION | 3
website when assignments are returned.

CASES

Three cases worth 5% each, for a total of 15%, will be assigned during the
semester, to be worked on by your team. Each team should prepare (1) a
spreadsheet analysis of the case and (2) a PowerPoint presentation, as specified
in the case assignment. Submit both of these through links on the Cases page
of the course web site.

The two files are due by midnight prior to the case discussion in class. We will
discuss a number of the PowerPoint presentations on the case in class (and
perhaps even all of them). Any number of team members may present for a
given team.

Cases will be pass/fail, marked on the basis of both the PowerPoint
presentation and the spreadsheet. After each case presentation, one of the
better case spreadsheets handed in for that case will be posted on the course
web site as an example.

MIDTERM EXAM


There will be a midterm exam worth 30%. The midterm exam will be a
computer-based exam held in one of the Scurfield Hall computer labs. It will be
open-notes, open-book, but you may not share materials with others in any
way. Students will complete the exam on the computer and then submit their
files through the courses D2L web site. See the course schedule below for the
exam date.

FINAL EXAM

There will be a final exam worth 35%. This exam will be cumulative. The final
exam will be a computer-based exam held in one of the Scurfield Hall computer
labs. It will be open-notes, open-book, but you may not share materials with
others in any way. Students will complete the exam on the computer and then
submit their files through the courses D2L web site. The date of the final exam
will be announced when it is available.

GRADE SCALE

The Haskayne School of Business endeavours to ensure consistency of final
grades across courses and sections. Variations in distribution will always be
considered by the instructor where called for by the performance in each
individual class.

Grade Grade Point
Value
Percentage
(%)
Description
A+ 4.0 98% Outstanding
A 4.0 93% Excellent
A- 3.7 90% Very good performance
B+ 3.3 87% Good performance
B 3.0 83% Satisfactory performance
B- 2.7 78% Minimum pass
C+ 2.3 73% All grades below B- are
indicative of failure at the
graduate level and cannot
be counted toward the
course requirements.
C 2.0 68%


MGST 613 Fall 2014 MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION | 4

Note: The grade point value (3.0) associated with a B is the minimum
acceptable average that a graduate student must maintain throughout the
program as computed at the end of each of the program

* See the Academic Standing section of the Faculty of Graduate Studies
Calendar regarding grades less than B.

EXAMINATIONS

The final exam is scheduled by the registrar.


TUTORIALS Tutorials will be held approximately every other week on Fridays/Saturdays:
see the D2L website for the schedule.

TEGRITY VIDEOS Occasionally the instructor will create and post short Tegrity videos on the D2L
website. Please watch each video prior to the lecture and answer the short
online quiz that will accompany them. This will give you a head start on the
material and will help the instructor to know what concepts need to be covered
more thoroughly in lecture.


EMERGENCY EVACUATION PLAN
In the event of an emergency, the building must be evacuated and all individuals are to meet at a
predetermined location. Additional information on the emergency procedures and the list of rendezvous
points can be found here http://www.ucalgary.ca/emergencyplan/assemblypoints.


UNIVERSITY REGULATIONS

Academic Accommodation:
It is the students responsibility to request academic accommodations. If you are a student with a
documented disability who may require academic accommodation and have not registered with Student
Accessibility Services (SAS), please contact their office at 403.220.8237. Students who have not registered
with SAS are not eligible for formal academic accommodation. You are also required to discuss your needs
with your instructor no later than fourteen (14) days after the start of this course.

Academic Honesty:
Academic honesty is the cornerstone in the development of knowledge. If a student allows his/her name to
stand on group work when in fact there is essentially no contribution made, then that student is guilty of
academic misconduct. A single offence of cheating, plagiarism or other academic misconduct on term work,
tests or final examinations etc. may lead to disciplinary probation or a students suspension or expulsion
from the Faculty by the Dean. Please refer to the current University Calendar for further details.

Plagiarism:
Plagiarism is a serious offence. According to the University Calendar plagiarism involves submitting or
presenting work in a course as if it were the students own work expressly for that particular course when, in
fact, it is not. Please refer to the current University Calendar for further details.

You must document not only direct quotations but also paraphrases and ideas where they appear in your
text. A reference list at the end is insufficient by itself. Readers must be able to tell exactly where your
words and ideas end and other peoples words and ideas begin. This includes assignments submitted in

MGST 613 Fall 2014 MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION | 5
non-traditional formats such as Web pages or visual media, and material taken from such sources. Please
consult your instructor or the Writing Centre (SS110) if you have any questions regarding how to properly
document sources.

Software Policy:
Faculty, students and staff of the University of Calgary are expected to use software in a lawful manner in
accordance with the Canadian law of copyright and the softwares specific license conditions.

Copyright and Photocopying:
All material used in this course is for the sole use of the individual and should not be recopied either in print
or digital format. For copyright guidelines and University of Calgary policies please visit:
http://library.ucalgary.ca/copyright. All copyright related questions can be directed to the Copyright Office:
copyright@ucalgary.ca.

Tape Recording Lectures:
Tape recording of the lectures and labs is permitted for individual private study, but only with instructor
approval. Any other use of recording constitutes Academic Misconduct and may result in suspension or
expulsion.



UNIVERSITY RESOURCES

Counselling and Student Development Centre:
The Counselling Centre focuses on three major areas: personal counselling, career development and
academic success. Should you require assistance, please phone 220.5893 or review the website at:
http://www.ucalgary.ca/counselling/

Student Accessibility Services (SAS):
Student Accessibility Services exists to create an accessible and inclusive educational environment for
those students with permanent disabilities or temporary impairments.

Further information can be obtained at the Student Accessibility Services website at
http://www.ucalgary.ca/access . You may also contact the office at 403-220-8237.

MBA Society Representatives:

Email: alexeakinsmbasociety@gmail.com
sumeet.b.m@gmail.com
sbhadaur@ucalgary.ca
Alex Eakins, President
Sumeet Mehta, VP Academic
Swapnil Bhadauria, Downtown Evening Rep

Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act:
For information on the Freedom of Information and Protection of Privacy Act please visit
http://www.ucalgary.ca/secretariat/privacy

Safe Walk:
http://www.ucalgary.ca/security/safewalk

Office of the Ombudsperson:
http://www.su.ucalgary.ca/services/student-services/student-rights.html

MGST 613 Fall 2014 MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION | 6
CLASS SCHEDULE & TOPICS:
The calendar containing all important dates can be found at: http://www.ucalgary.ca/pubs/calendar/


COURSE SCHEDULE, MGST 613 L01 F14 (subject to change)

DATE TOPIC READINGS FROM TEXT DUE DATES/
TUTORIALS Fri/Sat
Before start of
classes
Review your basic Excel
skills

Ch. 2
Ch. 3 (through p. 60)


September 10
Introduction;
Decision making under
uncertainty
Ch. 18 (skip p. 602-604 and p. 608-
616)
Tutorial
September 17
Case 1 discussion,
Decision making under
uncertainty
Case 1 due
September 24
Probability for
simulation modelling
Ch. 5 (skip p. 155-159)
Assignment 1 due
Tutorial
October 1

Predictive modelling and
analysis,
Monte Carlo simulation

Ch. 8 (skip p. 244-250)
Ch. 11 (through p. 348)
Presentation of quantitative info

October 8
Case 2 discussion,
Monte Carlo simulation

Case 2 due
Tutorial
October 15

Monte Carlo simulation

Assignment 2 due
October 22 Midterm exam
October 29 Optimization

Ch. 13


November 5 Optimization Ch. 14 Tutorial
November 12

Case 3 discussion,
Optimization

Ch. 15 Case 3 due
November 19 Forecasting Ch. 10
Assignment 3 due
Tutorial
November 26

Forecasting,
Analysis of datasets

Ch. 3 (p. 60 to end)
Ch. 4

December 3

Statistics for data
analysis

Ch. 6 (through p. 192)
Assignment 4 due
Tutorial
Final exams are scheduled by the Registrars office