The Clinton Legacy

How Will History Judge the Soft-Power Secretary of State?

By Michael Hirsh - May/June 201
!"ershadowed# Hillary $linton% Washington% &'$'% January 200(
)n late January% only a few days after his second inauguration% *'S' President Barac+ !,a-a deli"ered a sur.risingly
fond farewell to his old .olitical ri"al Hillary $linton' Sitting for a /oint inter"iew with the outgoing secretary of state
on 60 Minutes% !,a-a lauded their 0great colla,oration'1 He continued# 0) /ust wanted to ha"e a chance to .u,licly
say than+ you% ,ecause ) thin+ Hillary will go down as one of the finest secretaries of state we2"e had'1
3he .resident had reason to ,e grateful' His 4incolnes5ue effort to create a tea- of ri"als had .aid off% than+s largely
to $linton2s own efforts at reconciliation' &uring her four years in office% $linton% dis.laying i-.ressi"e hu-ility
and self-disci.line for an a-,itious .olitician% -anaged to .ut one of the fiercest .residential .ri-ary ,attles in *'S'
history ,ehind her' !nce the runaway fa"orite to win her .arty2s no-ination% $linton transfor-ed herself into a loyal
-essenger and .assionate defender of the !,a-a faith'
But neither !,a-a2s gratitude nor $linton2s graciousness should cloud history2s /udg-ent' By any standard -easure
of di.lo-acy% $linton will ,e re-e-,ered as a highly co-.etent secretary of state% ,ut not a great one' &es.ite her
considera,le star .ower around the world% her .o.ularity at ho-e% and her re.utation for ,eing on the right side of
-ost issues% she left office without a signature doctrine% strategy% or di.lo-atic triu-.h' )t is a stretch to include
$linton in the co-.any of John 6uincy 7da-s% 8eorge Marshall% &ean 7cheson% and Henry 9issinger -- so-e of the
great secretaries of state who .rofoundly changed *'S' foreign .olicy' 7lthough she has a"oided all tal+ of what
co-es ne:t% it -ay well ,e that $linton2s tenure as di.lo-at in chief will so-eday ,e "iewed as a ste..ingstone to
the .residency% as it was for 3ho-as Jefferson and 7da-s'
)n the end% $linton shied away fro- the +ind of hard di.lo-acy that traditionalists identify with foreign .olicy
greatness'
)t is not that $linton can2t .oint to so-e nota,le and enduring achie"e-ents' Because of her worldwide .o.ularity
and tireless tra"el -- she set a new record for a secretary of state ,y "isiting 112 countries -- $linton hel.ed undo the
da-age that the ha,itual unilateralis- of the 8eorge W' Bush ad-inistration had done to the glo,al i-age of the
*nited States' 7s $linton .ut it to -e in a 2010 inter"iew% 0My ,ig-.icture co--it-ent is to restore 7-erican
leadershi.% and ) thin+ that2s a,out as ,ig a /o, as you can get' 7nd e"erything )2"e done is in furtherance of that'1
3his goal was shared ,y the whole ad-inistration' )n his first ter-% !,a-a faced the daunting tas+ of winding down
two -a/or wars in )ra5 and 7fghanistan' He needed to contend with the reduction in *'S' le"erage and .restige
following the strategic -ista+es and econo-ic colla.se of the Bush years' 7s a result% the ad-inistration was +een on
e-.hasi;ing the 0soft1 di.lo-acy of *'S' i-age ,uilding and "alues .ro-otion o"er 0hard%1 or coerci"e% di.lo-acy%
which necessitates direct in"ol"e-ent in conflicts'
&es.ite her frustrations with a White House that often did not heed her ad"ice% $linton ele"ated this effort to le"els
unseen in .re"ious ad-inistrations' )ndeed% her -ost lasting legacy will li+ely ,e the way that she thrust soft
di.lo-acy to the forefront of *'S' foreign .olicy' By s.ea+ing out a,out )nternet freedo-% wo-en2s rights% .u,lic
health% and econo-ic issues e"erywhere she went% $linton sought to transcend traditional go"ern-ent-to-go"ern-ent
contacts' She set out to create -- or at least dra-atically e:.and in sco.e -- a new +ind of .eo.le-to-.eo.le
di.lo-acy% one designed to e:tend Washington2s influence in an )nternet-dri"en world in which .o.ular u.risings%
such as the 7ra, S.ring% could 5uic+ly u.root the traditional relationshi.s ,etween go"ern-ents'
Beyond that% $linton often .layed the realist haw+ in an ad-inistration that started with o"erconfidence a,out its
.resident2s transfor-ational .owers' )n 200<% she allied with &efense Secretary =o,ert 8ates to .ress for a 0%000-
troo. surge to address the chaos in 7fghanistan% e"en though the .resident2s instincts were for a far s-aller
escalation' 4ater that year% when !,a-a had nothing to show for offering an outstretched hand to 3ehran >a .olicy
that $linton had encouraged?% she .rodded the .resident into i-.osing un.recedentedly se"ere sanctions on )ran' )n
2011% she corralled a trou.e of ad"isers% including Susan =ice% the *'S' a-,assador to the *nited @ations% to
con"ince !,a-a to su..ort a @73!-led inter"ention in 4i,ya' 7nd it was $linton2s State &e.art-ent that was
-ainly res.onsi,le for the ad-inistration2s atte-.t at a strategic 0.i"ot1 to 7sia% designed largely to counter $hina2s
growing influence' $linton .ersonally led the way with a historic tri. that ,rought long-isolated Myan-ar >also
called Bur-a? into the fold of 7-erican .artners% with a deft -i: of real.oliti+ and de-ocracy .ro-otion' $linton
also ,eca-e the careta+er of -a/or relationshi.s with other heads of state with who- the so-ewhat aloof *'S'
.resident engaged only s.oradically'
3he effecti"eness of $linton2s a..roach is as yet unclear' 3he outco-e of the 7ra, S.ring a..ears to ,e increasingly
)sla-ist and anti-7-erican% and a-ong the legacies $linton ,e5ueathed to her successor% John 9erry% is a resurgent
/ihadist -o"e-ent in the 7ra, world -- including an al 6aeda that is 0on the rise%1 as she ad-itted only days ,efore
her de.arture' *'S' relations are deteriorating with Pa+istan and =ussia% and it did not hel. that $linton a"oided
in"ol"e-ent in direct negotiations with those countries o"er critical issues that di"ided the- fro- Washington'
@e"ertheless% a glo,al Pew =esearch $enter .oll and other international sur"eys ha"e shown a su,stantial
i-.ro"e-ent in *'S' standing in world o.inion% es.ecially a-ong Auro.eans' So there can ,e little dou,t that
$linton restored so-e luster to an 7-erican ,rand ,adly tarnished ,y the .re"ious ad-inistration'
8!)@8 S!B3
4i+e 8eorge Shult;% =onald =eagan2s re"ered secretary of state% $linton regularly stressed that di.lo-acy and
econo-ic de"elo.-ent -ust go hand in hand' She .reached that hel.ing .artner countries achie"e social sta,ility --
,uilt on .rogress on health% food security% and wo-en2s rights -- would create stronger alliances and new .aths to
sol"ing traditional foreign .olicy .ro,le-s' )n a January 2011 s.eech in 6atar% /ust as the early signs of the 7ra,
S.ring were starting to a..ear% $linton issued what now loo+s li+e a .rescient ad-onition to 7ra, leaders% ta+ing
the- to tas+ for failing to 0,uild a future that your young .eo.le will ,elie"e in% stay for% and defend'1 She said that
the 7ra, .eo.le had 0grown tired of corru.t institutions and a stagnant .olitical order%1 and she warned the regi-es
that their 0foundations CwereD sin+ing into the sand'1
$linton then too+ her -essage directly to the .eo.le in the countries she "isited' She held regular town-hall -eetings
a,road% s.ea+ing not /ust to the international .ress ,ut also to local citi;ens and local -edia% an a..roach that -ay
ha"e hel.ed ease so-e anti-7-ericanis- in )sla-ic countries >although few .olls show it yet?' 0) thin+ that really is
new%1 her for-er .olicy-.lanning chief% the Princeton scholar 7nne-Marie Slaughter% told -e in a recent inter"iew'
0She2s the one who +e.t saying% EFou2"e got to ha"e go"ern-ent-to-go"ern-ent% go"ern-ent-to-.eo.le% and .eo.le-
to-.eo.le contacts'2 She2s ,een "ery clear that the .eo.le of different countries are not /ust the o,/ect of .oliciesG they
are acti"e agents of change and e"olution' 7nd% a,o"e all% of .ro,le- sol"ing'1
7 test case for whether the $linton -odel of di.lo-acy can wor+ going forward -ay ,e the current tur-oil in Agy.t%
where President Hosni Mu,ara+2s successor% the Musli- Brotherhood2s Moha-ed Morsi% a..ears to ,e wa"ering in
his co--it-ent to de-ocracy' 7lthough Washington deals -ainly with Morsi2s go"ern-ent and the Agy.tian
-ilitary% the State &e.art-ent has fostered ties ,etween nongo"ern-ental organi;ations in the *nited States and
Agy.t that focus on education and de"elo.-ent' 0!ne way to thin+ a,out it is that ,ecause of her integrated
fra-ewor+% we always ha"e so-eone to call%1 said Slaughter' 0Mu,ara+ fell and the Musli- Brotherhood is in
.ower% ,ut now we ha"e contacts with wo-en2s grou.s% techies% and entre.reneurs through "arious .rogra-s' )f
di.lo-acy is ,uilding relationshi.s that you can call on in a crisis% then she has de"elo.ed the fra-e'1 @ow% a .ower-
gra,,ing Morsi finds hi-self under .ressure to -oderate his actions not /ust fro- *'S' go"ern-ent officials ,ut also
fro- grass-roots .ro-de-ocracy organi;ations su..orted or trained ,y Washington'
A"en as she hel.ed design the real.oliti+ .i"ot to 7sia% $linton also .ushed this .eo.le-to-.eo.le a..roach with
$hina' She .ro-oted the 100%000 Strong )nitiati"e% a .rogra- ai-ed at dra-atically increasing the nu-,er of
7-ericans studying at $hinese uni"ersities >ten ti-es as -any $hinese study in the *nited States?' She e-.hasi;ed
econo-ic de"elo.-ent in $entral and South 7sia% where she sought to sta,ili;e 7fghanistan and counter Pa+istani
recalcitrance ,y .ro.osing a 0@ew Sil+ =oad1 that would .ro-ote new trade routes in order to induce )sla-a,ad to
coo.erate -ore with 9a,ul' 7nd when !,a-a announced in Be,ruary his .lan to negotiate a transatlantic free-trade
.act with Auro.e% he was e-,racing a .ro.osal .ushed ,y his for-er secretary of state'
3he di.lo-atic world +ee.s .ining for the ne:t 8eorge 9ennan% so-eone who -ight su- u. the country2s o"erall
-ission in a strategic conce.t as si-.le as contain-ent'
Fet in the end% although $linton e:celled at soft di.lo-acy% she shied away fro- the +ind of hard di.lo-acy that
traditionalists identify with foreign .olicy greatness' !ne thin+s of 7da-s2 authorshi. of the Monroe &octrine and
the 3ranscontinental 3reaty with S.ain% 7cheson2s aggressi"e cha-.ioning of contain-ent% 9issinger2s shuttle
di.lo-acy ,etween the 7ra,s and the )sraelis and his cle"er e:.loitation of the Sino-So"iet s.lit' So-e critics ha"e
inter.reted $linton2s -ore -odest agenda as ste--ing fro- .olitical caution' )n a recent assess-ent% the /ournalist
&a"id =ohde 5uoted a State &e.art-ent official who suggested that $linton2s hesitation to get .ersonally in"ol"ed in
conflicts was related to her future .residential a-,itions'
)ndeed% $linton consistently a"oided getting her hands dirty with direct -ediation' She ha..ily agreed to lea"e +ey
negotiations in crisis s.ots to s.ecial en"oys% charging 8eorge Mitchell with o"erseeing the )sraeli-Palestinian
.ortfolio and relying on =ichard Hol,roo+e to ,ring a,out a .olitical settle-ent in 7fghanistan and Pa+istan' She
rarely ste..ed in as each of the- failed to -a+e -uch headway' !ther .ressing issues% such as @orth 9orea2s nuclear
.rogra-% she si-.ly .ut off' Her .olicy of 0strategic .atience1 with @orth 9orea% under which Washington refused
to offer any new incenti"es to Pyongyang in the ho.es of restarting nuclear disar-a-ent tal+s% did not wor+' 3he
.ro,le- festered for four years% and as soon as $linton left office% the @orth 9orean leader 9i- Jong *n greeted her
successor with yet another nuclear test'
)t -ay ,e unfair to fault $linton for the deadly attac+ on *'S' .ersonnel in Bengha;i% 4i,ya% which occurred last
Se.te-,er' @onetheless% she ,eca-e the first secretary of state to lose an a-,assador in the field since 7dol.h &u,s
was +illed in 1<(<% while $yrus Hance held the office' 7nd $linton does deser"e so-e ,la-e for what she herself
ad-itted in Senate testi-ony a,out the incident# that she and her State &e.art-ent colleagues were ta+en ,y sur.rise
,y the rise of new /ihadist grou.s in 4i,ya and the region' 0We2"e got to ha"e a ,etter strategy%1 she said' 03he 7ra,
S.ring has ushered in a ti-e when al 6aeda is on the rise'1 $linton thus a..eared to concede what the for-er
=e.u,lican .residential candidate Mitt =o-ney had relentlessly argued during the 2012 ca-.aign# that the terrorist
grou. res.onsi,le for </11 and its offshoots are not close to ,eing defeated'
)n her farewell testi-ony% $linton s.o+e of the 0Pandora2s ,o:1 of wea.ons flowing through countries in the Middle
Aast and @orth 7frica' 7nd that Pandora2s ,o: -ay yield e"en worse ills on 9erry2s watch' 3he .ost-6addafi chaos
in 4i,ya% the ci"il war in Syria% the e-ergence of a terrorist sanctuary in northern Mali -- all these de"elo.-ents
ha"e ta+en the !,a-a ad-inistration ,y sur.rise' So-e *'S' officials now fear that these countries could ,rea+ u. or
turn into .er-anently strife-ridden lands that rese-,le the .ostcolonial countries of 7frica% such as So-alia or the
&e-ocratic =e.u,lic of the $ongo% where tri,es and ethnic grou.s ne"er sto. warring e"en though the countries2
,orders re-ain su.erficially intact'
3he s.reading "iolence in the Middle Aast and @orth 7frica could co-e to ,e seen as one of $linton2s gri--est
legacies' )t all ,ut ensures that howe"er -uch 9erry tries to focus on 7sia% he will li+ely get .ulled ,ac+ into the
Middle Aastern -ire that the !,a-a ad-inistration2s first-ter- national security tea- left hi-' )ndeed% if any one
situation de-onstrates the .otential costs of the ad-inistration2s caution in the region% it is that in Syria% where the
.resident2s decision to a"oid ar-ing the re,els has struc+ critics as inaction in the face of a terri,le hu-anitarian
crisis and a conflict that could desta,ili;e the entire region'
)MP=!H &=7M7
!n a nu-,er of critical issues% anything rese-,ling a larger strategy was often hard to find in !,a-a2s first ter-' )n
a recent con"ersation with -e% I,igniew Br;e;ins+i% the dean of the &e-ocratic national security esta,lish-ent%
critici;ed the ad-inistration2s foreign .olicy for ,eing 0i-.ro"isational'1 3o ,e fair% the i-.ro"isation was
so-eti-es effecti"e' )n one case% !,a-a and $linton ,arged into a -eeting at the 200< glo,al cli-ate change tal+s
in $o.enhagen and forced the $hinese .resident to agree to a non,inding .act under which rich and .oor countries
ali+e .ledged to cur, their car,on e-issions' 7nd last year% $linton dis.layed cle"erness and agility in negotiating
the release of the $hinese dissident $hen 8uangcheng% who had ta+en refuge in the *'S' e-,assy in Bei/ing' But
those were rare instances of successful i-.ro-.tu -ediation'
7t other ti-es when !,a-a2s foreign .olicy tea- was forced to act on its feet% the results were not as i-.ressi"e'
3he ad-inistration failed to antici.ate the increasingly )sla-ist ,ent of the countries whose regi-es were ousted in
the 7ra, S.ring% and it has ,een slow in for-ulating a coordinated res.onse to the a,uses against de-ocracy ,y
Morsi and other )sla-ist leaders' )nstead% !,a-a a..ears to ,e a..roaching Morsi in -uch the sa-e real.oliti+ way
he once dealt with Mu,ara+ -- .aying li. ser"ice to de-ocracy and hu-an rights ,ut essentially lea"ing Agy.t2s
internal chaos to sort itself out' 3he de-ocracy e:.ert 4arry &ia-ond told -e in an inter"iew that he saw 0"ery little
sign -- to ,e ,lunt% no sign -- of any coherent strategy to try to defend and sustain the "ery% "ery tentati"e de-ocratic
.rogress in Agy.t or to ' ' ' create a -ore facilitating en"iron-ent'1 $linton2s State &e.art-ent did not de"elo. a
strategic fra-ewor+ for addressing the )sla-ist -iddle .hase that the 7ra, world a..ears to ,e undergoing on its
way to -oderni;ation and de-ocracy -- a transition that was entirely .redicta,le gi"en )sla-2s traditionally do-inant
role in 7ra, society' )n her final testi-ony ,efore the Senate% co--enting on the new wa"e of /ihadis- in the region%
$linton said% 0We2"e got to get our act together'1 )t was a hel.less re-ar+ that recalled for-er *'S' &efense
Secretary &onald =u-sfeld2s notorious la-ent fro- a decade ago# 0We lac+ the -etrics to +now if we are winning
or losing the glo,al war on terror'1
Still% one -ust as+# $ould any secretary of state realistically ha"e done a ,etter /o, gra..ling with such une:.ected
unrest? Pro,a,ly not' 07ny,ody would ,e i-.ro"ising now%1 =euel Marc 8erecht% a conser"ati"e Middle Aast
analyst% told -e' 0) wouldn2t fault the ad-inistration too -uch'1 $linton2s defenders 5uestion how any o"erarching
strategy could ha"e addressed so-ething as chaotic and co-.le: as the 7ra, u.risings' Ja-es Stein,erg% a for-er
de.uty secretary of state and for-er $linton aide% has in"o+ed the fa-ous line attri,uted to the for-er $hinese leader
Ihou Anlai% who% when as+ed in the 1<(0s a,out the significance of the Brench =e"olution% su..osedly re.lied% 0)t2s
too soon to tell'1 03raditional ideas a,out grand strategy don2t really ca.ture the challenge of dealing with ,road
.o.ular -o"e-ents%1 Stein,erg said to -e in a recent inter"iew' 0)t2s less a,out a strategy and -ore a,out how do
you .osition the *'S' to .ositi"ely ta+e ad"antage of it?1
)t2s a fair .oint' 3he di.lo-atic world +ee.s .ining for the ne:t 8eorge 9ennan% so-eone who -ight su- u. the
country2s o"erall -ission in a strategic conce.t as si-.le as contain-ent' But 9ennan% in truth% had things relati"ely
easy co-.ared with today2s .olicy-a+ers' He faced a ,i.olar world consisting of two utterly o..osed ideological
syste-s and an ad"ersary whose strengths and wea+nesses could ,e analy;ed in a static way' 3wenty-first-century
strategists confront a far -ore co-.le: and -ultidi-ensional world% one in which a lone terrorist or hac+er can
threaten a su.er.ower'
3o its detractors% the !,a-a ad-inistration has loo+ed consistently wea+ and indecisi"e in its res.onse to the 7ra,
S.ring' But these critics generally fail to offer a..ealing alternati"es' !,a-a and $linton ha"e had good reasons% for
e:a-.le% to a"oid a large-scale inter"ention in Syria' 7fter a decade of war% Washington cannot afford to loo+ li+e it
is interfering% yet again% in a region that has already seen far too -uch Western -eddling' !,a-a2s concerns that
*'S'-su..lied wea.ons would find their way to /ihadist -ilitants are e5ually "alid'
WH! )S !B7M7JS 9)SS)@8A=?
Bor four years% $linton had to s.end a lot of ti-e and energy si-.ly -a+ing herself heard on Pennsyl"ania 7"enue'
)t was often as hard for her to .ersuade the White House to ta+e her ad"ice as it was to deal with foreign
go"ern-ents' 7lthough $linton so-eti-es got her way and ser"ed as the ad-inistration2s .u,lic face% !,a-a and a
coterie of de"oted national security aides -- including &enis Mc&onough% !,a-a2s for-er de.uty national security
ad"iser and now the White House chief of staff -- were the -ain authors of the ad-inistration2s foreign .olicy' 7nd
des.ite !,a-a2s +ind .arting words% $linton ne"er really de"elo.ed war- .ersonal ties to her for-er ri"al' 3his ga.
-ade her /o, -uch harder% since in Washington% real .ower is -easured in .residential face ti-e% and a close
relationshi. ,etween the White House and the State &e.art-ent is critical to a secretary of state2s success' >7cheson%
fortunate enough to ,e Harry 3ru-an2s alter ego% used to say that he had 0a constituency of one'1?
Her distance fro- !,a-a% ,y -ost accounts% was a source of frustration and disa..oint-ent for $linton% es.ecially
at the ,eginning of her tenure' She li+ely felt shortchanged ,y the difference ,etween her original /o, descri.tion and
the reality that e-erged' )n the fall of 200K% when !,a-a sur.rised $linton ,y as+ing her to ta+e the /o,% he told her
that he had his hands full with the colla.sing econo-y and needed so-eone of her glo,al stature to ta+e care of
foreign .olicy' 3he i-.lication was that $linton would ,e the do-inant figure'
But that ne"er ha..ened' Aarly in !,a-a2s first ter-% a senior aide to $linton told -e that 0the ,iggest issue still
unresol"ed in the !,a-a ad-inistration is% can there ,e -ore than one star?1 3he answer% it soon ,eca-e clear% was
noG the only star was going to ,e !,a-a hi-self' &es.ite his short tenure as a senator% !,a-a .rided hi-self on his
grass-roots +nowledge of foreign affairs% ha"ing grown u. .artly in )ndonesia with a foreign ste.father% and he had
de"elo.ed his own definite world"iew' 7s the aide .ut it% 0)f you as+% EWho is Barac+ !,a-a2s Henry 9issinger?2
the answer% of course% is that it2s Barac+ !,a-a'1
When $linton did a..ear to get out ahead of the White House% she was 5uic+ly reined in' )n 200<% $linton hinted that
she was de"elo.ing a .olicy to unite the 7ra, autocracies in an anti-3ehran ,loc% and she ga"e a s.eech calling for
7ra, regi-es to /oin a $old WarLstyle 0defense u-,rella1 to .rotect against )ran2s nuclear .rogra-' The New York
Times soon 5uoted a 0senior White House official1 as saying that $linton was s.ea+ing for herself' 3hat was the last
-ention of a defense u-,rella' 4ater% she tentati"ely su..orted a $)7 .lan to ar- the Syrian re,els% ,ut !,a-a shot
down that idea as well'
$linton also suffered fro- the sa-e .ro,le- that for-er Secretary of State $olin Powell confronted in 8eorge W'
Bush2s first ter-# the .resence of an influential "ice .resident who constituted a se.arate .ower center on foreign
.olicy' )n Powell2s case% that was &ic+ $heneyG for $linton% it was Jose.h Biden% the dee.ly e:.erienced for-er
chair of the Senate Boreign =elations $o--ittee'
)n 200<% for e:a-.le% to. ad-inistration officials were s.lit o"er how to handle the 5uag-ire in 7fghanistan' Biden
counseled the .resident to scale down the *'S' .resence there and rely on a .olicy of counterterroris-% carried out ,y
s.ecial o.erations units and drone stri+es' 7lthough $linton and 8ates2 call for a troo. surge won the day% ,y 2012%
!,a-a ,egan siding with Biden and started accelerating the *'S' withdrawal' 3he )ra5 withdrawal .lan% too% was
handed o"er to Biden and his tea-' 7 senior ad-inistration official descri,ed what ha..ened at an early -eeting in
200<# 07ll of sudden% !,a-a sto..ed' He said% EJoe will do )ra5' Joe +nows -ore a,out )ra5 than anyone'21
&es.ite the lac+ of a singular triu-.h to her na-e% howe"er% there is a case to ,e -ade that the i-.act $linton had
on *'S' foreign .olicy will ,e felt long after she has left office' )n an inter"iew -idway through her tenure% ) as+ed
$linton how she assessed her effecti"eness and why she hadn2t 0ta+en a ,ig issue and totally owned it'1 She
res.onded that she had 0inherited such a range of .ro,le-s and deficits across the world that it would ,e a lu:ury to
say% E)2- going to focus on this and this alone'21 4i+e !,a-a% $linton set out to re.air the da-age that Bush had
done to the country2s stature around the world% and in that% she had so-e noteworthy success' 7s she .ut it% 0We2"e
wor+ed "ery hard to restore relations with allies% and ) thin+ we2"e -ade a lot of .rogress in doing so ' ' ' and fran+ly
ta+ing situations that had ,adly deteriorated% es.ecially =ussia and $hina% and turning the- around to ,e a,le to .ut
the- on a -uch -ore .ositi"e footing'1 7s+ed what she -ost en/oyed a,out the /o,% she re.lied% 07 lot of it is not
the headline stuff' )t2s the slow and steady .rogress that ) thin+ .ro"ides a -uch fir-er footing for us'1
Slow and steady .rogress is not necessarily the stuff of greatness' But it is "alua,le nonetheless% and it -ay ,e what%
in the end% the world will re-e-,er -ost a,out $linton2s tenure as the country2s to. di.lo-at'
The Ayatollah's Game Plan
How to Pre"ent 7nother 8reen Mo"e-ent
Mohsen Milani - May 1M% 201
A painter rests in front of a huge portrait of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on a wall near a university, 2012 >Morte;a @i+ou,a;l / $ourtesy )ran?
)n nor-al .residential elections% it is only the candidates and their .latfor-s that -atter' @ot so in )ran' 3here% the
+ey .layer in the u.co-ing .residential elections is the se.tuagenarian su.re-e leader% 7yatollah 7li 9ha-enei% who
is constitutionally ,arred fro- running for the office' He recogni;es that the election result will ha"e a .rofound
i-.act on his own rule and on the sta,ility of the )sla-ic =e.u,lic' So ,ehind the scenes% he has ,een doing
e"erything in his .ower to -a+e sure that the election ser"es his interests' But the ele"enth-hour declarations of
candidacy ,y Hashe-i =afsan/ani% )ranJs .resident ,etween 1<K< and 1<<(% and ,y Asfandiar =ahi- Mashaei%
President Mah-oud 7h-adine/ad2s chief of staff and close confidant% ha"e -ade his tas+ -ore difficult'
3he first .art of 9ha-enei2s four-.ronged strategy is to conduct an orderly election' 3he night-are scenario for
9ha-enei is a re.eat of the June 200< .residential election% in which allegations that 7h-adine/ad had stolen "ictory
fro- his challenger% Mir Hossein Mousa"i% led to -assi"e de-onstrations and the ,irth of the .o.ular refor-ist
8reen Mo"e-ent'
9ha-enei could ha"e stayed a,o"e the fray% as elites e:.ected hi- to do' )nstead% he lost credi,ility as a neutral
ar,iter when he sided with 7h-adine/ad% re/ected all allegations of fraud% and ,la-ed 7h-adine/ad2s o..onents for
inciting "iolence' His offer of .u,lic su..ort for the .resident o.ened a fissure a-ong the elites that has ne"er 5uite
healed' )t also .receded a -assi"e crac+down on acti"ists who were castigated as 7-erican stooges and arrested'
A"en -ore% the dis.uted election alienated -illions who felt truly ro,,ed of their "oices'
8i"en that history% 9ha-enei has -ade a concerted effort this ti-e around to discredit .otential .rotesters ,efore
they ta+e to the streets' 3he =e"olutionary 8uards and security forces ha"e launched a .ro.aganda ca-.aign to lin+
any interru.tion on election day or after to the *nited States and its .ur.orted .lans to desta,ili;e the regi-e' Bor
e:a-.le% Fadollah Ja"ani% the head of the .olitical ,ureau of the =e"olutionary 8uards% has warned that the slogan
0free and fair election1 is a *'S' code word for sedition'
7ll this co-es at a ti-e when the =e"olutionary 8uards and security forces ha"e en/oyed e"en -ore i-.unity than
usual as they arrest acti"ists and ,loggers and shutter hostile we,sites and news.a.ers' )n March 201% the
go"ern-ent clai-ed that it disco"ered and shut down a networ+ of so-e N00 anti-go"ern-ent /ournalists who were
.lanning to disru.t the .residential election' )n reality% they were .laced under sur"eillance in order to cut off their
lin+s to /ournalists and acti"ists outside of )ran' 7nd although there has not yet ,een any increase of forces on the
streets% one can ,e sure that in June% the .olice will ,e ready for action'
3he second co-.onent of 9ha-eneiJs electoral strategy is to encourage a high "oter turnout% which% he ,elie"es% will
gi"e the )sla-ic =e.u,lic ,ac+ its "eneer of electoral legiti-acy' )f anything% 200< taught -any "oters% es.ecially
ur,an ones% that "oting was .ointless' 3he go"ern-ent has real fears that they si-.ly won2t show u. this June' 3o
-a+e sure that doesn2t ha..en and that at least as -any )ranians as usual >N0 to NM .ercent? turn out% the regi-e
scheduled the .residential election to ta+e .lace si-ultaneously with the elections for the local councils' )n those%
which occur at the city% town% and "illage le"el% hundreds of thousands of candidates fro- e"ery corner of the
country will co-.ete for thousands of seats' 7nd the candidates will ,e of all stri.es% since they do not ha"e to ,e
"etted ,y the regi-e' 7s those in the .ast% these races will li+ely ,oost "oter .artici.ation this ti-e'
9ha-enei2s third strategy is to dissuade candidates that he does not trust to ,e sufficiently su,ser"ient fro- running'
3o achie"e this goal% his first line of attac+ is to rely on the -edia and his surrogates within the clerical
esta,lish-ent% such as 7yatollah 7h-ad 9hata-i% to defa-e unfriendly candidates' 9ha-enei used this strategy to
good effect against for-er .resident Muha--ad 9hata-i% who declared his intention to run this s.ring' 7fter
throwing his hat in the ring% 9hata-i was la-,asted in the -edia for initiating refor-s during his .residency that
wea+ened the )sla-ic =e.u,lic' He was also critici;ed for su..orting the 8reen Mo"e-ent' )n the end% he decided
not to run'
9ha-eneiJs other o.tion is to rely on the 8uardian $ouncil to dis5ualify any candidate with a 5uestiona,le
ideological co--it-ent to the su.re-e leader' 9ha-enei a..ointed si: of the 12 -e-,ers of this .owerful
institution% which is tas+ed with inter.reting and .rotecting )ranJs constitution and a..ro"ing candidates for the
7sse-,ly of A:.erts% the .residency% and the Ma/lis' 9ha-enei will turn to that ,ody to deal with Mashaei and
=afsan/ani'
Mashaei is the easier case' 7h-adine/ad drea-s of using hi- to .ull a Putin-Med"ede" tric+% in which the latter wins
a ter- as .resident% lets the for-er rule fro- ,ehind the scenes% and then su..orts 7h-adine/ad2s return to .ower
when the ti-e is right' But things are unli+ely to .lay out that way# 7h-adine/ad has far too -any ene-ies to stay
around for long' He was a 0useful idiotO for 9ha-enei% who% as .arlia-entarian 7li Motahari has said% was su..orted
Oas an effecti"e instru-ent for eli-inating Hashe-i C=afsan/aniD and the refor-ists'O )n addition% Mashaei is
intensely disli+ed ,y conser"ati"es and 9ha-enei' He has ,een "ilified for .ro.agating a 0de"iant current%1 which
su..osedly re/ects direct rule ,y the clerics and cha-.ions )ranian nationalis- as o..osed to )sla-is-' 9ha-enei
issued a decree four years ago that .rohi,ited 7h-adine/ad fro- a..ointing Mashaei as first "ice .resident'
Mashaei% undaunted ,y the odds% officially declared his candidacy o"er the wee+end' )f the 8uardian $ouncil
dis5ualifies hi-% that would lea"e Mashaei with two o.tions# as+ 7h-adine/ad to interru.t ,y .ost.oning the
elections or go down 5uietly% su..orting his other% less +nown% su..orters in the race' 8i"en 9ha-enei2s stern
warnings that he will tolerate no -ischief% 7h-adine/ad surely +nows that he will ,e dealt with harshly if he fo-ents
trou,le'
9ha-enei also has to deal with the co-.le: case of =afsan/ani' 7 seasoned states-an% the cunning (K-year-old
=afsan/ani was close to 7yatollah 9ho-eini and has ,een a friend of 9ha-enei2s since the .re-re"olutionary .eriod%
when ,oth -en where .art of 9ho-eini2s secret networ+ inside )ran' 9ha-enei and =afsan/ani engineered
9ha-enei2s selection as su.re-e leader after 9ho-eini died% and the two -en wor+ed closely together when
=afsan/ani ser"ed as .resident in the 1<<0s'
3heir relationshi. ,egan to deteriorate after the 200M election% when 7h-adine/ad defeated =afsan/ani' =afsan/ani
i-.lied that the election had ,een fraudulent% ,ut did not .ursue the allegation' 3ies were wea+ened further after the
200< election% when 9ha-enei declared that he was ideologically closer to 7h-adine/ad than to =afsan/aniG he then
accused =afsan/ani of -aster-inding the 8reen Mo"e-ent and ,arred hi- fro- deli"ering Briday .rayer ser-ons'
=afsan/ani also lost his .osition as $hair-an of the 7sse-,ly of A:.erts for 4eadershi. and two of his children were
/ailed'
7s soon as =afsan/ani declared his intention to run in the u.co-ing election% he was .ressured to ,ac+ down'
9ha-enei is right to ,e worried a,out =afsan/ani# =afsan/ani is the only candidate with the .rere5uisite s+ills%
"ision% sa""y% and .o.ular su..ort to .ose a serious challenge should he win the election' He has a de"elo.ed
networ+ of su..orters inside the go"ern-ent% the =e"olutionary 8uards% and the clerical esta,lish-ent' 9hata-i has
endorsed hi-% and all -a/or refor-ist organi;ations could ,e e:.ected to su..ort hi- as well' He has .ledged to
-oderate )ranian foreign .olicy and resol"e the nuclear i-.asse' He has also declared that )ran is 0not at war with
)srael%1 ,ut would /oin the 7ra,s if they declared war' Binally% he has stated that the legiti-acy of the su.re-e leader
e-anates not /ust fro- 8od ,ut also fro- the will of .eo.le'
7s .art of the s-ear ca-.aign to discredit =afsan/ani% 9ha-enei2s older ,rother la,eled the for-er .resident Othe
,est indi"idual for 7-erican cons.iracy against the )sla-ic =e.u,lic'1 3o i--uni;e hi-self against such attac+s%
=afsan/ani declared that he would run only if the su.re-e leader did not o,/ect -- and% re.ortedly% he has not' )t
would ,e difficult >although not unfatho-a,le? for the 8uardian $ouncil to now dis5ualify =afsan/ani' 7fter all% he
has consistently held the -ost sensiti"e .ositions in the )sla-ic =e.u,lic% ranging fro- acting $o--ander of the
7r-ed Borces to S.ea+er of the Ma/lis to the .residency'
Bacing a .otential challenge fro- =afsan/ani% 9ha-enei -ust also .ush for his own .referred candidates without
actually endorsing the- or a..earing .artisan -- the fourth and final .art of his strategy' )t is an o.en secret that
9ha-enei fa"ors the conser"ati"es' He see-s to .articularly su..ort the $oalition of 3hree% which consists of
8hola- 7li Haddad 7del% a for-er s.ea+er of the .arlia-ent% Moha--ad Ba5ir 8hali,af% the -ayor of 3ehran and
a for-er =e"olutionary 8uard% and 7li 7+,ar Helayati% a for-er foreign -inister' 3he three ha"e wor+ed closely
with hi- on a "ariety of issues o"er the .ast few years and are trusted ,y hi-' Helayati is the -ost seasoned a-ong
the- and see-s to ,e 9ha-enei2s fa"orite' He has ,een a -e-,er of 9ha-enei2s 0+itchen ca,inetO for a long ti-e'
3his grou. faces the twin challenges of chosing their -ain candidate and then unifying all the conser"ati"es ,ehind
that .erson' 7fter the 8uardian $ouncil co-.letes its re"iew of all candidates within the ne:t wee+ or so% 9ha-enei
can rely on the -ass -edia and his surrogates to .ro-ote his .ic+'
Should 9ha-enei2s strategy succeed% lea"ing hi- with the .resident of his choice% he will further consolidate his
control of the go"ern-ent' 3his will intensify the lingering tensions ,etween the state and )ran2s "i,rant ci"il society%
which de-ands .olitical refor-% accounta,ility% and freedo-' With a .liant .resident% -eanwhile% 9ha-enei could
also indirectly influence the elections for the 7sse-,ly of A:.erts for 4eadershi.% scheduled for 201P' 3his ,ody has
the .ower to re-o"e 9ha-enei or% in the case of his death% select his successor' 7 trusted ne:t .resident would also
guarantee continuity in 9ha-enei2s nuclear strategy and unwa"ering su..ort for Syria% his to. two .riorities'
)f% howe"er% 9ha-enei2s strategy does not succeed% and =afsan/ani wins the .residency% 9ha-enei2s further
consolidation of .ower will ,eco-e -ore difficult' =afsan/ani2s "ictory could hel. ,ridge the di"ide a-ong the elites
that was created after the dis.uted election of 200< and that% in turn% could lead to a slight o.ening of the .olitical
.rocess' )t also could increase the chances for a .eaceful resolution of )ran2s nuclear dis.ute with the West' 3o ,e
effecti"e% though% =afsan/ani% or whoe"er wins the .residency% -ust ulti-ately still colla,orate with 9ha-enei' Bor
the ti-e ,eing% then% 9ha-enei will re-ain )ran2s final decider% howe"er the u.co-ing elections .lay out'
=egresar )-.ri-ir
Becha# 01/02/201
Al secuestro de 7rnoldo MartQne; Herdugo
8usta"o Hirales MorRn
Jos Woldenberg,
Poltica y delito y delirio. Historia de sec!estros,
Cal y arena,
"#ico, $ %%.
An su Teor!a "e la historia% dice 7gnes Heller 5ue
0al no ser un -ito% la historia% .ara ser "erdadera%
e:ige la "erificaciSn de los hechos' 4os
aconteci-ientos tienen 5ue ser descritos tal y co-o
ocurrieron en la realidad1' 4a conciencia histSrica
del -undo es secular% dice la autora' @o es -ito ni
religiSn' =eside no sSlo en los 0reco"ecos de la
historia1% en los estudios de los filSsofos% sino
ta-,iTn en las calles y en los ca-.os de ,atalla'
An este conte:to% #ol!ti$a y "elito y "elirio %istoria
"e & se$uestros contri,uye a recrear esa conciencia
histSricaG .ues trata so,re hechos 5ue ocurrieron
hace -Rs de 2( aUos% hechos cuyos .rotagonistas
.rinci.ales se recla-a,an herederos de otros
.rotagonistas y de sus hechos >en .articular# el
secuestro de =u,Tn Bigueroa .or la guerrilla de
4ucio $a,aUas?% sucedidos en el aUo de 1<(P' 7clara
su urdi-,re y los .one en .ers.ecti"a'
Asta-os ante una reconstrucciSn histSrica 5ue%
aun5ue no sea su .ro.Ssito% contri,uye .or su rigor a se.arar el -ito de los hechos% interrogRndose al
-is-o tie-.o .or el sentido y los efectos de los -is-os'
Al li,ro res.onde a interrogantes co-o# V5uT .ensa,an los secuestradores de 7rnoldo MartQne; Herdugo%
cS-o /ustifica,an una acciSn a,errante 5ue des.ertS el re.udio de todas las fuer;as .olQticas y sociales
sanas del .aQs?
V6uT .ensa,an los dirigentes del Partido $o-unista Me:icano 5ue% en -edio de una situaciSn .antanosa
y -Sr,ida% decidieron .or sQ y ante sQ guardarse y utili;ar un dinero 5ue e"idente-ente no les .ertenecQa%
y 5ue ha,Qa sido o,tenido de -anera ilegal .or un gru.o ar-ado 5ue% co-o tal% no tenQa relaciones
.olQticas for-ales con el P$M?
4as fuer;as .olQticas del .aQs% VcS-o se definieron ante estos hechos? V$uRntos asu-ieron .osiciones
co-o las del Partido =e"olucionario de los 3ra,a/adores >trots+ista?% .ara 5uien era 0tan gra"e1 5uedarse
con fondos re"olucionarios co-o 0secuestrar a dos co-.aUeros1?
Para situar las cosas en .ers.ecti"a% hay 5ue recordar 5ue el P$M "enQa de una eta.a de aguda re.resiSn
gu,erna-ental% donde -uchos cuadros y dirigentes .agaron con .risiSn .olQtica su lucha .or las
li,ertades de-ocrRticas >.or e/e-.lo% durante el -o"i-iento estudiantil del NK?' 7.enas en el "erano de
1<(1% tres aUos antes de los hechos 5ue dieron origen a este enredo% ha,Qan de/ado la cRrcel cuadros
estudiantiles del P$ >co-o Pa,lo 8S-e; y 7rturo MartQne; @ateras?% y "arios "eteranos de la direcciSn
co-o 8il,erto =incSn 8allardo% 8erardo *n;ueta% Aduardo Montes% =odolfo 'l (hi$ali Ache"errQa%
=afael Jaco,o% entre otros' Para no ha,lar de los 5ue se e:iliaron o tu"ieron 5ue esconderse'
4a li,ertad .olQtica en el eche"erris-o era una 5ui-era# del 10 de /unio a la a.ertura de-ocrRtica% del
a"iSn de redilas a los desa.arecidos de 8uerrero' Pero si ,ien ello .uede ayudar a e:.licar un estado de
Rni-o y deter-inadas actitudes% tanto de la guerrilla co-o del P$% no los /ustifican'
4a "ersiSn de 5ue el Partido de los Po,res o la Brigada $a-.esina de 7/usticia-iento decidieron% en las
condiciones de la tRctica de cerco y ani5uila-iento .or .arte del e/Trcito en 8uerrero >5ue cul-inS con
la -uerte de 4ucio y la destrucciSn .rRctica de la Brigada?% encargar ese dinero .ara 0su custodia1 al
P$M% no estR .ro,ada ni .arece .ro,a,le' @o hay ningWn dato 5ue a"ale esta "ersiSn% -Rs allR de las
declaraciones de dirigentes del .ro.io .artido'
4o Wnico claro es 5ue la direcciSn del Partido $o-unista se encontrS ante lo 5ue .arecQa un regalo
ines.erado del destino# .or causas en .arte a;arosas y en .arte relati"as al entra-ado de relaciones de la
guerrilla en 8uerrero% a uno de los -ilitantes co-unistas% BTli: Bautista% 5ue al -is-o tie-.o era ,ase
de a.oyo y enlace del Partido de los Po,res% le dieron a guardar y final-ente se 5uedS% con una .arte
i-.ortante del rescate .agado .or la fa-ilia de =u,Tn Bigueroa% en -edio del naufragio de las redes de
a.oyo de la .ro.ia guerrilla y% ante la -uy real .osi,ilidad% no sSlo de 5ue los -ilitares le 5uitaran el
dinero% sino de 5ue lo incul.aran .or ello% o algo .eorG en esas condiciones% o.tS .or entregar el dinero a
gente de la direcciSn del .artido donde -ilita,a# el P$M'
Pero su.oniendo sin conceder 5ue fuera "erdad la "ersiSn de 5ue el P$M se sentQa 0custodio1 de un
dinero a/eno% ello nos lle"a al asunto% a -i "er -ucho -Rs cuestiona,le% de los criterios y "alores .uestos
en /uego en la decisiSnG es decir% V.or 5uT el P$M asu-iS tRcita-ente 5ue ese dinero pertene$!a al
P&4P? @o 5ueda claro% nunca lo aclararon'
&e otra for-a hu,ieran regresado el dinero a la fa-ilia Bigueroa'
Pero el hecho es 5ue ese dinero no .ertenecQa al P&4P' @o sSlo .or5ue fue o,tenido de -anera ilegal y
"iolenta% sino ade-Rs .or5ue el P&4P reci,iS el dinero del rescate% .ero no li,erS al go,ernador electo
=u,Tn Bigueroa' Xste fue li,erado a sangre y fuego .or tro.as del e/Trcito -e:icano'
Bigueroa ha,Qa sido secuestrado -ediante una celada 5ue entre .olQticos res.onsa,les se lla-a traiciSn
>co-o ,ien se seUala en el li,ro?% .ues Tl ha,Qa acordado reunirse en la sierra con $a,aUas .ara discutir
las de-andas del -o"i-iento 5ue Tste enca,e;a,a% y a ca-,io se le notificS 5ue esta,a secuestrado'
$reo% co-o -uchos% 5ue Bigueroa re.resentS -Ttodos y actitudes .ro.ias de un .asado signado .or la
ilegalidad% el autoritaris-o y la re.resiSnG .ero hay 5ue distinguir% ni en la guerra ni en la lucha .olQtica
se "ale todo'
4os 5ue secuestraron a 7rnoldo esta,an .lena-ente con"encidos de 5ue no esta,an e/ecutando una
acciSn in/usta ni -enos contrarre"olucionaria% .ri-ero .or5ue en este e.isodio los re"olucionarios eran
ellosG segundo% .or5ue sSlo esta,an recla-ando un dinero 5ue 0legQti-a-ente1 les corres.ondQa y 5ue el
secuestrado se nega,a a de"ol"er'
!scura-ente intuQan 5ue MartQne; Herdugo% el .rinci.al dirigente de la i;5uierda legal en MT:ico% era
.arte de un entra-ado de relaciones .olQticas e institucionales 5ue lo trascendQa% incluso a su .artido% y
5ue% .or tanto% ese entra-ado i,a a sacar la cara .or Tl' Por eso .idieron las cantidades de dinero 5ue
.idieron% y tu"ieron ra;Sn' Al go,ierno de Miguel de la Madrid actuS% cosa 5ue lo enaltece% con sentido
de Astado% .riori;ando la integridad fQsica y -oral del dirigente .olQtico de o.osiciSn'
VPor 5uT los dirigentes del PS*M 5ue "enQan del Partido $o-unista% enfrentados al secuestro de BTli:
Bautista% actuaron con tor.e;a y -orosidad? Por inseguridad% creo% .or ine:.eriencia% .or te-or a 5ue
todo saliera Yco-o final-ente saliSY a la lu; .W,lica' Por5ue esta,an frente a un .roceso electoral
federal y no 5uerQan afectar las .osi,ilidades del .artido' F ta-,iTn% hay 5ue decirlo% .or5ue BTli: sSlo
era un -ilitante de ,ase'
$uando% de entre los entresi/os del .asado% les saltS al cuello la gRrgola de la "iolencia .olQtica
.seudorre"olucionaria% no su.ieron de in-ediato cS-o reaccionar' 3riste-ente .aradig-Rtica es a5uella
declaraciSn inicial de Pa,lo 8S-e; >secretario general del PS*M? de 5ue el .artido 0no negocia,a con
terroristas1'
@o sSlo hu,o 5ue negociar con estos terroristas% sino 5ue al concluir el secuestro de 7rnoldo y BTli:%
algunos dirigentes ha,Qan retrocedido en el tWnel del tie-.o y e-.e;aron a ha,lar Yen la discusiSn
internaY en el "ie/o lengua/e tarta-udo de 5ue 0el -ar:is-o reconoce todas las for-as de lucha%
ar-adas y no ar-adas1% 5ue los -ie-,ros del P&4P 0son co-.aUeros de lucha% sSlo 5ue -antienen
conce.ciones diferentes1% etcTtera'
Aso% y la necesidad de deslindar ante la o.iniSn .W,lica% de -anera clara y contundente% la lQnea .olQtica
del PS*M de a5uella de los restos inse.ultos del naufragio guerrillero% fue lo 5ue lle"S a un gru.o de
co-.aUeros de la direcciSn >el autor del li,ro y el 5ue esto escri,e% entre ellos? a .lantear% en los
tTr-inos -Rs claros y contundentes .osi,les% 5ue el PS*M era un .artido 5ue actua,a en la legalidad
constitucional% la 5ue a su "e; ,usca,a refor-ar en sentido de-ocrRticoG 5ue reconocQa la "alide; y
/urisdicciSn de las instituciones del Astado y 5ue% .or tanto% no reconocQa la legiti-idad de gru.os o
tri,unales su.uesta-ente 0re"olucionarios1% 5ue otorga,an sentencias y a-nistQas a contentillo% sin
cuidarse .ara nada de .reser"ar las garantQas y derechos 5ue% .roducto de toda una historia ci"ili;atoria%
se englo,an ,a/o el conce.to de 0de,ido .roceso1'
7fortunada-ente% la -ayorQa de los -ie-,ros de la $o-isiSn PolQtica del PS*M% y luego la -ayorQa de
los -ie-,ros del $o-itT $entral% estu"ieron de acuerdo con esta conce.ciSn y la a.ro,aron'
7hora ,ien% V5uiTnes son estos herederos del -o"i-iento de 4ucio $a,aUas?
Han .asado 2( aUos de a5uellos hechos y nadie sa,e ,ien a ,ien% hasta hoy% 5uiTnes son real-ente estos
.ersona/es' Su .ro.ia "ersiSn es 5ue desde los ochenta se fusionaron con el P=!$*P' VF? &el P=!$*P
ta-.oco nadie sa,e 5uiTnes son sus dirigentes% cS-o surgieron a la "ida .olQtica% en 5uT luchas se
for/aron' SSlo el asesinato de dos "igilantes de 4a Jornada% 5ue cul-inS con la detenciSn de Beli.e
MartQne; Soriano y otros -ilitantes clandestinos% arro/S una tQ-ida lu; so,re el te-a' F luego% cuenta el
-ito 5ue en 1<<M o 1<<N esta alian;a se fusionS con otros gru.os >igual-ente anSni-os? .ara dar lugar
al AP='
3engo .ara -Q 5ue todas Tstas son leyendas ur,anas o se-iur,anas% 5ue los "oceros y .ersoneros de
estos gru.os >co-o la re"ista Por Asto% de Mario MenTnde;? .ueden decir lo 5ue 5uieran so,re sus
orQgenes% ha;aUas% lidera;gos y reali;aciones% .ero lo Wnico cierto y "erifica,le es 5ue "ienen del
su,suelo% de la clandestinidad "ergon;ante y% cuando e-ergen% lo hacen -ediante un ;ar.a;o "iolento#
secuestros a5uQ% ata5ues a las fuer;as de seguridad allR% sin soluciSn de continuidad' 4os ru-ores de 5ue
ya se di"idieron y 5ue unos son los "erdaderos re"olucionarios y los otros YtQ.icoY% o.ortunistas y
,landengues% son su ali-ento cotidiano'
Son a todas luces un ele-ento .ro"ocador .or5ue con su acciSn delincuencial y delirante 5uieren
.ro"ocar el endureci-iento de las .olQticas de seguridad del Astado% en la "ie/a idea de 5ue agra"ando las
crisis se 0desen-ascara1 el Astado re.resorG esto es% la idea de origen anar5uista de 5ue 0-ientras .eor%
-e/or1'
7llR .or 1<(N los califi5uT >siguiendo a =egis &e,ray en su anRlisis de la derrota de las guerrillas en 74?
co-o 0los restos del naufragio1G no a ellos en es.ecQfico% sino a todos los gru.os 5ue% -ediando los
setenta% no se ha,Qan .ercatado 5ue la estrategia de lucha ar-ada ha,Qa fracasado rotunda-ente y 5ue
ha,Qa 5ue sacar todas las consecuencias de este hecho' Pero si en 1<(N ya eran restos de un naufragio%
VcS-o se les .uede calificar ahora% en la segunda dTcada del siglo ZZ)? Me recuerdan a a5uellos
soldados /a.oneses 5ue% ter-inada la Segunda 8uerra Mundial% se 5uedaron aislados y ol"idados en islas
re-otas% y ellos continua,an en guerra% a la es.era de una seUal del e-.erador'
4o -Rs i-.ortante de todo este e.isodio% 5ue tan -eticulosa-ente relata JosT Wolden,erg% es% .ri-ero%
desde el .unto de "ista del interTs hu-ano% 5ue 7rnoldo y BTli: fueron li,erados .or sus ca.tores "i"os y
sanos'
Pero desde el .unto de "ista .olQtico e ideolSgico lo -Rs i-.ortante fue 5ue el .rinci.al .artido de la
i;5uierda to-S .artido% "alga la redundancia% .or una "isiSn de la lucha socialista 5ue% reto-ando la idea
del 0co-.ro-iso histSrico1 del P$)% no hacQa concesiones a las "eleidades re"olucionaristas% y .onQa
todo el .eso de sus e:.ectati"as en la lucha de-ocrRtica legal% constitucional% y 5ue al hacerlo se asu-Qa
.or tanto co-o .arte de las fuer;as .olQticas constituti"as y res.onsa,les del Astado -e:icano'
)a *orna"a escri,iS% en relaciSn a los hechos% 5ue 0el P&4P actuS de -anera 5ue no .uede ser
legiti-ada en -odo alguno' Ha,erse constituido en tri,unal re"olucionario .ara /u;gar y condenar
.ri-ero a la .ena de -uerte a Bautista% .ara a-nistiarlo des.uTs% serQa una caricatura risi,le de Srganos
se-e/antes% 5ue en la historia han -erecido res.eto% si no entraUaran conce.ciones .olQticas de franca
.eligrosidad1' VHa,rR dicho algo se-e/ante cuando el AI4@ secuestrS% sentenciS y luego a-nistiS al
general 7,salSn $astellanos? Pero el dile-a es el -is-o'
7l con"ertirse en PMS% el PS*M ya registra,a retrocesos y concesiones al re"olucionaris-o di;5ue
radical' An -i o.iniSn% desde 1<KK y luego en el P=& los retrocesos y a-,ig[edades se han "uelto .arte
de su segunda naturale;a% .ues no de otra -anera se e:.lican las arengas se-igol.istas de un MuUo;
4edo en la segun"a vuelta del KK% o la tRctica de lle"ar las contradicciones al e:tre-o 5ue su.uso la
0to-a1 de =efor-a .or 4S.e; !,rador en 200N'
=ecuTrdese nada -Rs% .ara fi/ar conte:to% 5ue tres aUos des.uTs de estos aconteci-ientos ocurriS la
insurgencia electoral de 1<KK% donde la i;5uierda /ugS un .a.el i-.ortanteG 5ue en 1<K< cayS el
.aradig-Rtico Muro de BerlQn% 5ue en 1<<1 se des-e-,rS la *=SS y 5ue el socialis-o autoritario o de
Astado .rRctica-ente desa.areciS de la escena internacional' Ha,Qa lecciones 5ue sacar de estos hechos%
de esta a"alancha de ca-,ios 5ue han -odificado el rostro del -undo tal cual lo conoci-os en el siglo
ZZ% y no todas se han sacado'
7gua ha corrido ,a/o los .uentes desde entonces% .ero los dile-as de la i;5uierda .er-anecen' VSe
asu-e a fondo la legalidad de-ocrRtica% sin renunciar a ca-,iarla desde adentro% con sus reglas% 5ue .or
otra .arte la i;5uierda -is-a ha contri,uido a construir?% Vo se -antiene co-o una o.osiciSn se-ileal%
cuyos .osiciona-ientos y definiciones no estRn fincadas en un cuer.o teSrico y .olQtico -Rs o -enos
sSlido% sino 5ue se definen en funciSn de la coyuntura? VSe cree 5ue 0todas las for-as de lucha son
"Rlidas1% en de.endencia de las circunstancias% o se asu-e 5ue la Wnica o.ciSn es la lucha constitucional%
electoral% legal y .acQfica?
&icho en otras .ala,ras% Vse a,andona el "ie/o .rinci.io -a5uia"Tlico de 5ue 0el fin /ustifica los
-edios1% y se asu-e a fondo la Ttica de la res.onsa,ilidad .olQtica?% Vo se -antiene la a-,ig[edad .ara%
o.ortunista-ente% intentar sacar .ro"echo de deter-inadas circunstancias? 7 eso es a lo 5ue% entonces
co-o ahora% hay 5ue dar res.uesta ca,al' F a articular esa res.uesta contri,uye sin duda un tra,a/o co-o
el reali;ado% una "e; -Rs% .or Pe.e Wolden,erg' Anhora,uena'
G!sta&o Hirales "or'n' Mie-,ro fundador de la 4iga $o-unista 2 de Se.tie-,re e integrante de la
direcciSn de los .artidos $o-unista Me:icano% Socialista *nificado de MT:ico y Me:icano Socialista'
Ha .u,licado# )a )iga 2& "e +eptiem,re, or!genes y naufragio% Memoria "e la guerra "e los -ustos% entre
otros li,ros'
www'ne:os'co-'-:
May/June 201
ASS7F
A(rica's )conomic *oom
Why the Pessi-ists and the !.ti-ists 7re Both =ight
Shantayanan &e"ara/an and Wolfgang Bengler
+%ANTAYANAN .'/A0A*AN is (hief '$onomist of the 1orl" 2ank3s Afri$a 0egion 14)56AN6
5'N6)'0 is the 1orl" 2ank3s )ea" '$onomist for 'ritrea, Kenya, an" 0wan"a
$an you hear -e now? Swa;iland% 7ugust
2010 >=euters / Si.hiwe Si,e+o?
3al+ to e:.erts% acade-ics% or ,usiness.eo.le a,out the econo-ies of su,-Saharan 7frica and you are
li+ely to hear one of two narrati"es' 3he first is o.ti-istic# 7frica2s -o-ent is /ust around the corner% or has
already arri"ed' =easons for ho.e a,ound' &es.ite the glo,al econo-ic crisis% the region2s 8&P has grown
ra.idly% a"eraging al-ost fi"e .ercent a year since 2000% and is e:.ected to rise e"en faster in the years
ahead' Many countries% not /ust the resource-rich ones% ha"e .artici.ated in the ,oo-# indeed% 20 states in
su,-Saharan 7frica that do not .roduce oil -anaged a"erage 8&P growth rates of four .ercent or higher
,etween 1<<K and 200K' Meanwhile% the region has ,egun attracting serious a-ounts of .ri"ate ca.italG at
\M0 ,illion a year% such flows now e:ceed foreign aid'
7t the sa-e ti-e% .o"erty is declining' Since 1<<N% the a"erage .o"erty rate in su,-Saharan 7frican
countries has fallen ,y a,out one .ercentage .oint a year% and ,etween 200M and 200K% the .ortion of
7fricans in the region li"ing on less than \1'2M a day fell for the first ti-e% fro- M2 .ercent to PK .ercent' )f
the region2s sta,le countries continue growing at the a"erage rates they ha"e en/oyed for the last decade%
-ost of the- will reach a .er ca.ita gross national inco-e of \1%000 ,y 202M% which the World Ban+
classifies as 0-iddle inco-e'1 3he region has also -ade great strides in education and health care'
Between 2000 and 200K% secondary school enroll-ent increased ,y nearly M0 .ercent% and o"er the .ast
decade% life e:.ectancy has increased ,y a,out ten .ercent'
3he second narrati"e is -ore .essi-istic' )t casts dou,t on the dura,ility of 7frica2s growth and notes the
de.ressing .ersistence of its econo-ic trou,les' 4i+e the first "iew% this one is also /ustified ,y co-.elling
e"idence' Bor one thing% 7frica2s recent growth has largely followed rising co--odity .rices% and
co--odities -a+e u. the o"erwhel-ing share of its e:.orts -- ne"er a sta,le .ros.ect' )ndeed% the
.essi-ists argue that 7frica is si-.ly riding a co--odities wa"e that is ,ound to crest and fall and that the
region has not yet -ade the +ind of funda-ental econo-ic changes that would .rotect it when the
downturn arri"es' 3he -anufacturing sector in su,-Saharan 7frica% for e:a-.le% currently accounts for the
sa-e s-all share of o"erall 8&P that it did in the 1<(0s' What2s -ore% des.ite the o"erall decline in
.o"erty% so-e ra.idly growing countries% such as Bur+ina Baso% Mo;a-,i5ue% and 3an;ania% ha"e ,arely
-anaged to reduce their .o"erty rates' 7nd although -ost of 7frica2s ci"il wars ha"e ended% .olitical
insta,ility re-ains wides.read# in the .ast year alone% 8uinea-Bissau and Mali suffered cou.s d2Ttat%
renewed "iolence roc+ed the eastern &e-ocratic =e.u,lic of the $ongo% and fighting flared on the ,order
,etween South Sudan and Sudan' 7t .resent% a,out a third of su,-Saharan 7frican countries are in the
throes of "iolent conflict'
More -undane .ro,le-s also ta+e a hea"y toll' Much of 7frica suffers fro- ra-.ant corru.tion% and -ost
of its infrastructure is in .oor condition' Many go"ern-ents struggle to .ro"ide ,asic ser"ices# teachers in
3an;ania2s .u,lic .ri-ary schools are a,sent 2 .ercent of the ti-e% and go"ern-ent-e-.loyed doctors in
Senegal s.end an a"erage of only < -inutes a day seeing .atients' Such deficiencies will ,eco-e only
-ore .ronounced as 7frica2s .o.ulation ,oo-s'
7nd then there2s the fact that 7frican countries% es.ecially those that are rich in resources% often fall .rey to
what the econo-ist &aron 7ce-oglu and the .olitical scientist Ja-es =o,inson ha"e ter-ed 0e:tracti"e
institutions1# .olicies and .ractices that are designed to ca.ture the wealth and resources of a society for
the ,enefit of a s-all ,ut .olitically .owerful elite' !ne result is staggering ine5uality% the effects of which
are often -as+ed ,y .ositi"e growth statistics'
What should one -a+e of all the contradictory e"idence? 7t first glance% these two narrati"es see-
irreconcila,le' )t turns out% howe"er% that ,oth are right% or at least reflect as.ects of a -ore co-.le: reality%
which neither fully ca.tures' 3he s+e.tics focus so -uch on the region2s co--odity e:.orts that they fail
to gras. the e:tent to which its recent growth is a result of econo-ic refor-s >-any of which were
necessitated ,y the -isguided .olicies of the .ast?' 3he o.ti-ists% -eanwhile% underesti-ate the degree to
which the region2s re-aining .ro,le-s -- such as sclerotic institutions% low le"els of education% and
su,standard health care -- reflect go"ern-ent failures that will ,e "ery difficult to o"erco-e ,ecause they
are dee.ly rooted in .olitical conflict'
Howe"er% e"en if ,oth narrati"es are reducti"e% the o.ti-ists2 "iew of 7frica2s future is ulti-ately closer to
the -ar+ and -ore li+ely to ,e ,orne out ,y de"elo.-ents in the co-ing decades' 7frica will continue to
face daunting o,stacles on its ongoing .ath to .ros.erity% es.ecially when it co-es to i-.ro"ing its hu-an
ca.ital# the education% s+ills% and health of its .o.ulation' But the success of recent refor-s and the
increased o.enness of its societies% fueled in .art ,y new infor-ation and co--unications technologies%
gi"e 7frica a good chance of en/oying sustained growth and .o"erty reduction in the decades to co-e'
B!*@$)@8 B7$9
7fter se"eral lost decades% during which de,t% disease% fa-ine% and war held ,ac+ 7frica2s de"elo.-ent%
things ,egan to i-.ro"e in the late 1<<0s' So far% the gains ha"e .ro"ed dura,le' &es.ite the glo,al
financial crisis of 200K and its lingering effects% the econo-ies of su,-Saharan 7frica grew at an a"erage of
P'( .ercent a year ,etween 2000 and 2011' 3his ro,ust .erfor-ance has resulted in the first o"erall decline
in the region2s .o"erty rate since the 1<(0s% fro- MK .ercent in 1<<< to P('M .ercent in 200K' 3hese
.ositi"e trends ha"e ,een wides.read% with e"ery .art of the region ,enefiting' 7nd the change in fortunes
has not ,een li-ited to certain +inds of econo-ies# oil e:.orters such as 7ngola and @igeria ha"e ,oo-ed%
,ut so% too% ha"e oil i-.orters such as Athio.ia and =wanda' @ot all states ha"e ,enefited e5ually% of
courseG fragile states such as Burundi and the $entral 7frican =e.u,lic% which are still struggling to
reco"er fro- "iolent conflicts% ha"e e:.erienced only -odest growth'
7frica2s re,ound has had -any causes% including an increase in e:ternal assistance >.artly fro- de,t
relief?% a ,uoyant glo,al econo-y until 200K% and high co--odity .rices' But the -ost significant has ,een
an i-.ro"e-ent in -acroecono-ic .olicies across all of su,-Saharan 7frica% which has ins.ired
confidence in in"estors and consu-ers' 7ccording to the World Ban+2s -ost recent annual 0$ountry Policy
and )nstitutional 7ssess-ent%1 the region2s o"erall -acroecono-ic .erfor-ance is now on .ar with that of
de"elo.ing countries in other regions' With stronger -acroecono-ic .olicies% 7frican countries ha"e ta+en
ad"antage of the co--odities ,oo- that .ea+ed ,efore the glo,al econo-ic crisis and a"oided a colla.se
when co--odity .rices .lu--eted' Bor e:a-.le% in early 200K% when the international .rice of oil rose
a,o"e \100 a ,arrel% so-e oil e:.orters in the region% such as 7ngola% 8a,on% and @igeria% .lanned their
,udgets as if oil .rices were only \NM a ,arrel' When the .rice ulti-ately did fall to that le"el% in the fall of
200K% those countries were not caught off-guard and had a cushion to fall ,ac+ on'
&uring the crisis% -ost countries continued with .rudent econo-ic .oliciesG so-e e"en accelerated their
refor-s' Partly as a result of such efforts% 7frican econo-ies +e.t e:.anding throughout the glo,al
recession% and su,-Saharan 7frica has -aintained an a"erage annual growth rate of nearly fi"e .ercent
since then% des.ite continued "olatility in the glo,al econo-y'
3HA P!4)3)$S !B 8=!W3H
)n large .art% the "ast i-.ro"e-ent in -acroecono-ic .olicy that ,egan in the late 1<<0s can ,e traced to
two factors' Birst% with the end of the $old War% .olitics in 7frica ,eca-e freer% -ore "i,rant% and -ore
o.en to .re"iously -arginali;ed grou.s' 7s su..ort fro- the *nited States or the So"iet *nion di-inished%
autocratic regi-es ,egan to lose their -ono.olistic gri.s on .ower' $alls for -ulti.arty de-ocracy s.read%
and countries throughout the region held co-.etiti"e elections' Such o.enings were li-ited% to ,e sure% ,ut
they .ro"ided a "oice to -any seg-ents of 7frican societies that had .re"iously ,een -arginali;ed% such as
.oor far-ers in rural areas' Since the -id-1<<0s% those grou.s ha"e ,enefited as .olitics has ,eco-e -ore
co-.etiti"e% -edia ha"e ,eco-e freer% and co--unications technology has ra.idly s.read% es.ecially since
2000' )n se"eral countries% including 8hana% @igeria% 3an;ania% and *ganda% these .olitical changes
,rought to .ower -ore co-.etent leaders% willing to .lace technocrats trained in -odern econo-ics in
senior .ositions in the go"ern-ent% re.lacing the .olitically connected ,ut less well-trained ,ureaucrats
who often held si-ilar .osts in .re"ious regi-es'
Political li,erali;ation also had a less direct ,ut still .rofound effect on -acroecono-ic .olicy' )n the .ast%
-any authoritarian 7frican regi-es +e.t their e:change rates artificially high% ,enefiting the s-all grou.s
of ur,an elites on who- the regi-es relied ,y -a+ing it easier for the- to ,uy food and i-.orted lu:ury
goods' 3his .olicy a-ounted to a transfer of wealth fro- the rural .oor to the ur,an rich% since the high
e:change rates -ade it harder for far-ers to e:.ort their cro.s' With the introduction of co-.etiti"e
elections% go"ern-ents reali;ed that they needed the su..ort of the rural .oor% who constitute a -a/ority in
-ost 7frican countries% and so they allowed their countries2 e:change rates to ,eco-e -ore co-.etiti"e'
7s a result% agricultural .roducti"ity and out.ut rose as far-ers recei"ed higher .rices for their .roduce'
3he second i-.ortant factor that contri,uted to the i-.ro"e-ent of 7frican -acroecono-ic .olicy in the
1<<0s also in"ol"ed the de-ocrati;ation of .olicy-a+ing -- s.urred% in this case% ,y e:ternal inter"ention'
When 7frican countries were des.erate for international aid in the 1<K0s% donors -ade their financial
su..ort contingent on the ado.tion of refor- .rogra-s that 7frican go"ern-ents designed with in.ut fro-
the World Ban+ and the )nternational Monetary Bund' But ,eginning in 1<<<% .otential donors ,egan to
re5uire 7frican go"ern-ents see+ing de,t relief to also consult with their own citi;ens -- ci"il-society
grou.s% ,usinesses% co--unity organi;ations -- as they crafted .olicies to hel. the .oor' 3his new .rocess
increased the chances that local citi;ens would ,uy into the .olicies' )n the early 1<<0s% when international
donors .ro.osed changes to Ia-,ia2s syste- for .ricing -ai;e% the agriculture -inistry re/ected the
changes% and they were ne"er .ut in .lace% leading to .eriodic food shortages' 7 decade later% the
go"ern-ent .ro.osed si-ilar refor-s% ,ut only after conducting consultations with a wide "ariety of
Ia-,ians who- the changes would affect' 7s a result% the .u,lic generally acce.ted the ideasG the refor-s
were i-.le-ented% and shortages were -ini-i;ed'
Acono-ic refor-s% howe"er% are not the only cause of 7frica2s growth surge' 3hree other factors ha"e
started to .lay a -a/or role# de-ogra.hic changes% ur,ani;ation% and technological ad"ances' Since 1<N0%
the dawn of the .ostcolonial era% the .o.ulation of su,-Saharan 7frica has grown ra.idly% fro- fewer than
2M0 -illion .eo.le to around <00 -illion today' But around 2000% fertility rates ,egan to decline% and so
did child -ortality rates' $onse5uently% wor+ing-age adults ha"e co-e to constitute the fastest-growing
seg-ent of the region2s societies' 3his shift has created a .otential de-ogra.hic di"idend% since econo-ies
i-.ro"e when there is a healthy ratio of wor+ing-age adults to de.endents'
@o country or region% -eanwhile% has e"er reached what the World Ban+ considers high-inco-e status with
low le"els of ur,ani;ation' 7frican .o.ulations ha"e traditionally ,een -ostly rural% ,ut the cities of su,-
Saharan 7frica are growing at astonishing rates' 3he trend is such that ,y 20% -ost of the region2s
inha,itants will li"e in cities -- as -ost of the world2s .o.ulation already does' Bir-s ha"e e:.loited this
increased ur,an consu-er ,ase to en/oy econo-ies of scale% ,enefiting the-sel"es and consu-ers% who
now ha"e access to low-cost goods'
Perha.s the -ost "isi,le sign of 7frica2s econo-ic ree-ergence is the so-called -o,ile re"olution' $ell
.hones ha"e ,eco-e u,i5uitous% e"en in the .oorest .laces' 3he change can ,e traced ,ac+ to the refor-s
of the late 1<<0s% when se"eral countries ,egan o.ening u. their teleco--unications sectors' 7t the sa-e
ti-e% technological ,rea+throughs ha"e -ade low-cost cell .hones afforda,le to a large nu-,er of
7fricans' )n -any 7frican countries% the calling rates are a-ong the lowest in the world' 3he e:.losion in
-o,ile technology has s.urred inno"ations such as M-Pesa% the -o,ile--oney syste- widely e-,raced in
9enya and 3an;ania% which allows users to -a+e .urchases and send cash transfers using their cell .hones'
)n -any countries% the s.read of -o,ile de"ices has also allowed the infor-ation and co--unications
sectors to ,eco-e i-.ortant .arts of the econo-yG in 9enya% these industries are growing at an a"erage of
20 .ercent each year% and in 2010% they accounted for fi"e .ercent of the country2s 8&P'
!.ti-ists ha"e sei;ed on all these trends to -a+e the case that this 7frican econo-ic ,oo- will .ro"e
sustaina,le' Much of the .rogress has resulted fro- .olitical changes' But the re-aining o,stacles to a
-ore lasting transfor-ation of 7frican econo-ies will also de.end on .olitics' 7nd those .ro,le-s -ight
.ro"e far -ore difficult to o"erco-e'
M!=A M!@AF% M!=A P=!B4AMS
7frica faces a nu-,er of dee. de"elo.-ent challenges -- in econo-ic growth% .o"erty reduction% hu-an
de"elo.-ent% and go"ernance -- that at the "ery least call into 5uestion the dura,ility of the gains -ade
during the last 1M years% and could e"en under-ine the-' &es.ite 7frica2s recent growth% there are few
signs of what econo-ists refer to as structural transfor-ation# the shift fro- low-.roducti"ity agriculture to
higher-.roducti"ity -anufacturing and ser"ices' Su,-Saharan 7frica2s -anufacturing sector re-ains
dor-ant% and so-e countries% such as South 7frica% ha"e e"en e:.erienced deindustriali;ation' 7nd while
there has ,een an increase in trade a-ong the region2s countries% their connections to the world econo-y
re-ain wea+ and concentrated in /ust a few sectors% es.ecially co--odities and natural resources' 3hese
de"elo.-ent challenges are the result of go"ern-ent failures% which hel.s e:.lain their .ersistence a-id
ra.id growth -- ,ut also .oints to .ossi,le solutions'
Perha.s none of these .ro,le-s is -ore trou,ling than the see-ing ina,ility of 7frican countries% including
the fastest-growing econo-ies% to con"ert growth into .rogress in fighting .o"erty' &es.ite years of
significant oil re"enues% the go"ern-ents of 7ngola% 8a,on% and @igeria ha"e not used their newfound
wealth to significantly i-.ro"e the welfare of their .oor citi;ens' More trou,ling is the fact that during the
.ast fi"e years% so-e non-oil-.roducing countries% such as Bur+ina Baso% Mo;a-,i5ue% and 3an;ania% ha"e
-anaged to reduce their .o"erty rates ,y only three or four .ercentage .oints% des.ite en/oying annual
econo-ic growth rates of around se"en .ercent' 3hat growth was "ery clearly dri"en ,y econo-ic refor-s%
not the co--odities ,oo-' 3he .ersistence of .o"erty in those three countries is now .ro"iding rhetorical
a--unition to the .olitical elites who ,enefited fro- the -isguided .olicies of the .ast% resisted refor-s%
and now want to re"erse the changes' )t also confir-s the worst sus.icions of critics of econo-ic
li,erali;ation% who can .oint to these .o"erty nu-,ers to argue that .ro-trade refor-s ha"e si-.ly -ade
the rich richer and the .oor .oorer'
7 -ore careful loo+ at these countries% howe"er% shows that the .ro,le- is not too -uch refor- ,ut too
little' S.ecifically% the refor-s ha"e generated growth in only so-e sectors% es.ecially ser"ices% with
industries such as retail and wholesale trade% teleco--unications% and .u,lic ad-inistration ,enefiting the
-ost' But those industries .ro"ide relati"ely few /o,s for low-s+illed wor+ers% and the refor-s did not
address the sectors in which the .oor actually wor+' Bor e:a-.le% in Mo;a-,i5ue% growth has co-e fro-
large in"est-ent .ro/ects in -ining that were -ade .ossi,le ,y changes in the country2s foreign in"est-ent
regulations' Such .ro/ects ha"e increased alu-inu- e:.orts and ,oosted 8&P ,ut created only 2%000 direct
/o,s' Most of Mo;a-,i5ue2s la,or force% -eanwhile% is e-.loyed ,y s-all far-s or household enter.rises
-- .arts of the econo-y in which .roducti"ity is growing "ery slowly'
)n cases where there ha"e ,een refor-s in industries that e-.loy the .oor% corru.tion has so-eti-es
.re"ented the ,enefits fro- accruing to the intended reci.ients' 3an;ania% for e:a-.le% has s.ent hea"ily to
su..ort its agriculture industry% es.ecially on fertili;er su,sidies' )n 200<% to ,etter target and strea-line the
su,sidies% the go"ern-ent introduced a -ar+et-li+e syste- of "ouchers# far-ers could use go"ern-ent-
issued "ouchers to .urchase fertili;ers% and sellers would ,e rei-,ursed ,y the go"ern-ent' *nfortunately%
local elected officials ended u. gaining control of a,out N0 .ercent of the "ouchers% -a+ing it difficult for
.oor far-ers to access the go"ern-ent su..ort'
)B F!* B*)4& )3% W)44 3HAF $!MA?
A"en in countries that ha"e achie"ed ,oth ra.id growth and .o"erty reduction% such as Athio.ia% 8hana%
and =wanda% there has ,een re-ar+a,ly little structural transfor-ation' 3he share of 8&P re.resented ,y
-anufacturing% for e:a-.le% is scarcely higher than it was ,efore these countries started en/oying serious
growth' 3here are -any reasons why co-.etiti"e -anufacturing has not ta+en off in 7frica% ,ut -ost of
the- re"ol"e around the high costs of .roduction' A"en though .er ca.ita inco-es in 7frica are a-ong the
lowest in the world% wages are relati"ely high and unit la,or costs are e"en higher'
7 -a/or e:.lanation for these high costs is the .oor state of infrastructure' 7ll across su,-Saharan 7frica%
anyone trying to do ,usiness is constantly sty-ied ,y .ower cuts% i-.assa,le roads% and lea+y water .i.es'
Behind each of these infrastructure .ro,le-s is a go"ern-ent failure that% although har-ful to the
econo-y% reflects a .olitical e5uili,riu- that will ,e difficult to undo si-.ly ,y ,uilding new
infrastructure'
=oad trans.ortation offers a good illustration of this .ro,le-' A:.orters in the region face so-e of the
highest trans.ort .rices in the world% es.ecially when trying to shi. goods fro- landloc+ed countries to a
.ort' But a 200< study .u,lished ,y the World Ban+ showed that "ehicle o.erating costs along the four
-ain trans.ort corridors in su,-Saharan 7frica are no higher than those in Brance' 3he difference ,etween
.rices and "ehicle o.erating costs is e:.lained ,y the -assi"e .rofit -argins en/oyed ,y truc+ing
co-.anies in su,-Saharan 7frica% so-e of which are close to 100 .ercent' 3he co-.anies are a,le to
charge a hefty .re-iu- than+s to regulations in -ost 7frican countries that .rohi,it would-,e co-.etitors
fro- entering the truc+ing industry' 3hese regulations were introduced P0 years ago% when 7frican
go"ern-ents% reflecting econo-ic thin+ing at the ti-e% "iewed truc+ing as a natural -ono.oly ,ecause a
single co-.any could -ore easily ensure that truc+s rode at full ca.acity' @ot sur.risingly% the outdated
rules are now difficult to re"o+e ,ecause decades of high .rofits ha"e .ro"ided the truc+ing industry with
.lenty of funds to .ay for lo,,ying to -aintain the status 5uo' 3his .ro,le- is es.ecially acute in .laces
where the truc+ing ,usiness is controlled ,y .olitically connected fa-ilies'
3he region2s water and electricity deficits also ste- fro- .olitical .ro,le-s' 8o"ern-ents ty.ically set
.rices for water and electricity that are ,elow cost% with the intention of .rotecting the .oor' 7s a result% the
water and electrical utilities re5uire go"ern-ent su,sidies to o.erate' 3his relationshi. allows .oliticians to
find ways to influence how the utilities are run and who recei"es their ser"ices' !fficials often gi"e .riority
treat-ent to neigh,orhoods they fa"or% which are not necessarily where the .oor li"e' Burther-ore% the
su,sidies rarely co"er costs% so the utilities neglect -aintenance% leading to lea+y .i.es and .ower outages'
3he rich o.t out of the shoddy syste- altogether and use their own water tan+s and electricity generators'
3he .oor in underser"ed areas -ust rely on candles for lighting and ,uy water fro- .ri"ate "endors% which
costs -ulti.le ti-es the -etered rates' !ne result of this .olitical distortion is that since 2000% the
.ercentage of households with access to water has declined in al-ost e"ery ur,an area of 7frica'
)n addition to these deficiencies in infrastructure% a host of other factors ser"e to dri"e u. the cost of doing
,usiness in the region% including the fact that 7frican countries ha"e so-e of the -ost co-.le: and least
trans.arent ,usiness regulations in the world' 4i+e the distortions that sha.e trans.ortation and
infrastructure% these regulations did not co-e a,out ,y accident% nor is their .ersistence due to a lac+ of
go"ern-ent ca.acity# they e:ist in order to ser"e s.ecific .olitical interests' )f these interests are
sufficiently .owerful% they can ,loc+ atte-.ts at refor-'
But si-.ly i-.ro"ing the ,usiness cli-ate will not lead to structural transfor-ation' 3he reason is that
,usiness regulations -ainly affect those who wor+ in the .ri"ate wage-e-.loy-ent sector% a grou. that
accounts for less than ten .ercent of the region2s la,or force' Most 7fricans wor+ for s-all far-s or
household enter.rises% in what is often called the infor-al sector' 3his is unli+ely to change in the -ediu-
ter-# in *ganda% for instance% e"en under the -ost o.ti-istic assu-.tions% o"er (0 .ercent of the la,or
force will still ,e in the infor-al sector ,y 2020'
Bor that reason% structural transfor-ation will de.end not only on creating -ore wage and salary /o,s ,ut
also on increasing the .roducti"ity of the infor-al sector' )-.ro"ing infrastructure and refor-ing
regulations will hel. to so-e e:tent' But -ore i-.ortant are -easures that can i-.ro"e the s+ills of
wor+ers in the infor-al sector% in which those with ,arely any education are dis.ro.ortionately
concentrated' By increasing the s+ills of such wor+ers% 7frican go"ern-ents can increase the .roducti"ity
of s-all far-s and household enter.rises -- and the inco-es of the .eo.le who wor+ there'
=7)S)@8 H*M7@ $7P)374
Without a dou,t% it will .ro"e difficult to i-.ro"e the s+ills of 7frica2s la,or force enough to .ro.el
structural transfor-ation' 3he fact is that des.ite so-e catch-u. o"er the last decade% the countries of su,-
Saharan 7frica still ha"e the lowest le"els of hu-an ca.ital in the world' )n one sense% that is not
sur.rising# after all% at the ti-e they won inde.endence% -ost of these countries had "ery few .eo.le with
higher education' 7frica also has ,een ,uffeted ,y an onslaught of .u,lic health crises% including the
world2s worst -anifestation of the H)H/7)&S .ande-ic'
3he region2s lac+ of sufficiently educated% s+illed% healthy wor+ers is e"en -ore distressing ,ecause for
decades% donors and 7frican ta:.ayers ali+e ha"e s.ent considera,le resources on health and educationG yet
they ha"e little to show for it' A"en in .laces where go"ern-ents and foreign donors ha"e i-.ro"ed access
to schools and health clinics% there has ,een li-ited i-.ro"e-ent in 5uality' Posta.artheid South 7frica% for
instance% has increased its .u,lic s.ending on schools to redress the ine5uita,le allocations of the .ast'
Anroll-ent rates ha"e risen dra-atically% ,ut learning outco-es ha"e hardly changed% and only two in fi"e
young adults co-.lete secondary school'
7t least three factors e:.lain this .heno-enon' Birst% resources allocated to addressing the .ro,le-s of
.oor .eo.le do not always reach their intended reci.ients' 7 land-ar+ 2001 World Ban+ study on .u,lic
s.ending showed that in *ganda% only 1 .ercent of the nonwage resources allocated to .u,lic .ri-ary
education actually found their way to schools' Si-ilarly% a 200< study on health s.ending in $had showed
that less than one .ercent of nonwage s.ending e"er arri"ed at .ri-ary clinics' Second% e"en when
resources do reach schools or clinics% there are often no teachers or doctors there to use the-' 7 recent
re.ort ,y the 7frican Acono-ic =esearch $onsortiu- found that health wor+ers in Senegal and 3an;ania
were a,sent 20 .ercent and 21 .ercent of the ti-e% res.ecti"ely' Binally% e"en when .ro"iders are .resent%
the 5uality of their ser"ices is e:ceedingly .oor' 7ccording to a 200< World Ban+ re"iew of .u,lic
e:.enditures% teachers in *ganda s.end less than 20 .ercent of class ti-e teaching' 3eachers in 3an;ania
s.end slightly -ore ti-e on instruction% ,ut only 11 .ercent of the- ha"e what education e:.erts consider
to ,e the -ini-u- le"el of language s+ills re5uired for the /o,' 3he situation in the health sector is worse#
in 3an;ania% the a"erage total a-ount of ti-e doctors s.end seeing .atients is only 2< -inutes .er day'
3hese failures to deli"er ser"ices are not si-.ly the result of un.rofessional conductG underlying the- is
the fact that ,asic .u,lic ser"ices ha"e ,een stolen ,y or di"erted to .olitical elites' 3he lea+age of .u,lic
funds intended for education and health care is the -ost straightforward e:a-.le' Since these are
e:.enditures for things other than salaries% officials are easily a,le to alter the a-ount of funding that is
actually distri,uted' 7s the econo-ists =it"a =eini++a and Ja+o, S"ensson showed in a 200P study% the
a-ount of funding an 7frican school recei"es li+ely de.ends on the .rinci.al2s ties to a go"ern-ent
,ureaucrat or a local .olitician' 3he .oor .erfor-ance of ser"ice .ro"iders is si-ilarly ,ound u. in this
for- of .atronage' Many teachers% for e:a-.le% also ser"e as .olitical o.erati"es# relati"ely well-educated
.eo.le who run election ca-.aigns for local .oliticians and are then rewarded with teaching /o,s% .ositions
for which they are not necessarily 5ualified and that they do not always ta+e "ery seriously'
3he way .olitical forces can thwart the deli"ery of ser"ices was illustrated in a recent study .u,lished ,y
the $enter for 8lo,al &e"elo.-ent' 3he study analy;ed the results of an e:.eri-ent in 9enya that ai-ed
to reduce teacher a,senteeis- ,y re.lacing salaried teachers with contract wor+ers' )n so-e cases% the .lan
was ad-inistered ,y a nongo"ern-ental organi;ationG in others% the go"ern-ent handled the hiring'
Student learning outco-es i-.ro"ed when the .lan was i-.le-ented ,y nongo"ern-ental organi;ations
,ut did not in the go"ern-ent-run cases' 3he study2s authors concluded that the difference ste--ed fro-
the a,ility of teachers2 unions to lo,,y the go"ern-ent to wea+en the .lan in "arious ways# for e:a-.le% ,y
delegating o"ersight to district officials who were not ulti-ately accounta,le to the go"ern-ent' 3he
nongo"ern-ental organi;ations did not succu-, to the sa-e .ressure' 3he larger lesson is that efforts to
sol"e .ro,le-s such as teacher a,senteeis- with technical solutions% such as introducing contract teachers
or electronic -onitoring% will not succeed if the .olitical syste- is not aligned with the ulti-ate goal'
=A7S!@S B!= !P3)M)SM
)t can ,e hard to stay o.ti-istic a,out 7frica2s future when one considers the .olitical .athologies that
stand in the way of i-.ro"ing its hu-an ca.ital' But it is crucial to recall that the recent growth in su,-
Saharan 7frican econo-ies resulted fro- fi:ing distorted -acroecono-ic .olicies that see-ed
irredee-a,le only 1M years ago' 3riggered ,y reactions to the de,t crises of the 1<K0s% the colla.se of the
So"iet *nion% and the .olitical li,erali;ation of the 1<<0s% a regional consensus for-ed in fa"or of .rudent
-acroecono-ic .olicies' 3hose .olicies deli"ered growth% which created .olitical su..ort for further
refor-s% e"en during the glo,al econo-ic crisis of recent years'
3he region now finds itself at another inflection .oint' 4uc+ily% today% the co-,ination of de-ocrati;ation%
de-ogra.hic change% ra.id ur,ani;ation% and increasing le"els of education has su,stantially altered
.olicy-a+ing .rocesses% -ostly for the ,etter' 3here is now -ore .olitical s.ace to "oice alternati"e "iews
and challenge go"ern-ent .olicies' A"en those who are o..osed to refor-s are less li+ely to resist if they
feel they ha"e ,een consulted' Moreo"er% than+s to ,etter econo-ic .olicies% foreign donors are less
co-.elled to i-.ose refor-s fro- the outside% which creates e"en -ore s.ace for ho-egrown refor-
efforts'
3he al-ost co-.lete connectedness of the region through cell .hones will also aid refor-s and structural
transfor-ation' $ell .hones% ,y hel.ing s.read infor-ation of all +inds -ore 5uic+ly% ena,le .oor .eo.le to
learn a,out such issues as the regressi"e nature of go"ern-ent su,sidies and the anti-.oor ,ias of
infrastructure s.ending' 3hey also allow .eo.le to find out what their .eers are thin+ing% greatly lowering
the costs of -o,ili;ing collecti"e action' 3he s.read of co--unications technology has also -ade it easier
for .oliticians to disco"er what citi;ens are thin+ing -- whether they want to or not -- -eaning that the
"oices of .eo.le li"ing in -arginali;ed areas will ,e heard -ore clearly in national ca.itals'
Whether one sees 7frica2s glass as half-full or half-e-.ty de.ends on one2s ,elief in the .ossi,ility of
.olitical change' 3he o,stacles to dura,le growth in the region are .ri-arily .olitical' 3hat hardly -eans
that they will ,e easy to sol"e% as e"en a cursory glance at the trou,led record of go"ernance in
.ostinde.endence 7frica -a+es clear' But it does -ean that they are not intracta,le' Su,-Saharan 7frica2s
recent history of .olitical change and refor- leading to growth /ustifies a .ositi"e outloo+' Belie"ing in a
-ore .ros.erous 7frican future re5uires a healthy dose of o.ti-is-% ,ut not a lea. of faith'
$o.yright ] 2002-2012 ,y the $ouncil on Boreign =elations% )nc'
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Per-issions =e5uest Bor-' )f you .lan to use this article in a course.ac+ or acade-ic we,site% "isit
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fengler/africas-econo-ic-,oo-
Ho-e ^ Assay ^ 7fricaJs Acono-ic Boo-
Pu,lished on 5oreign Affairs >htt.#//www'foreignaffairs'co-?
June 20% 201
S@7PSH!3
Ho- Germany Won the )!ro Crisis
7nd Why )ts 8ains $ould Be Bleeting
7le:ander =eisen,ichler and 9i-,erly J' Morgan
A)'7AN.'0 0'8+'N28(%)'0 is a #h. stu"ent in politi$al s$ien$e at 6eorge 1ashington 9niversity
K8M2'0)Y * M406AN is #rofessor of #oliti$al +$ien$e an" 8nternational Affairs at 6eorge 1ashington
9niversity
8er-an $hancellor 7ngela Mer+el% May 1M% 201' >Michaela =ehle / $ourtesy =euters?
8er-an $hancellor 7ngela Mer+el -ust ,e in a -ood to cele,rate' @ot only has the 8er-an econo-y
,ounced ,ac+ fro- the 200KL< financial crisis -- with re"itali;ed e:.ort industries and record-low
une-.loy-ent -- it has done so while -ost other Auro.ean econo-ies are still reeling' Where other
countries see only econo-ic hardshi. in their future% 8er-any sees an influ: of s+illed i--igrants% low
,orrowing costs% a ,alanced ,udget% and a growing housing -ar+et' 7ll of that is a ,oon for the 8er-an
econo-y -- and for Mer+el% who is u. for reelection in Se.te-,er'
3he co--on wisdo- is that 8er-any2s success is the hard-won reward for strict econo-ic -anage-ent'
Fet fiscal conser"atis- and structural refor-s alone do not account for 8er-any2s e:.ort-led growth%
which in fact is largely the .roduct of ad/ust-ents in ,usiness and la,or relations that rein"igorated
8er-an industries' 3he country also owes -uch of its econo-ic re,ound to the s.ecific structure of the
Auro.ean Monetary *nion and e"en to the la,or and financial fallout of the euro;one crisis' )--igrants
and in"estors2 cash are flowing into the country fro- the rest of Auro.e% in order to esca.e the dire
conditions that Mer+el and A* technocrats hel.ed create through their hard-line focus on austerity%
structural refor-s% and .rice sta,ility'
Mer+el2s dri"e for austerity is a ris+y ,et' 7lthough it see-s to ,e wor+ing to 8er-any2s ad"antage% it has
failed to lift u. a recession-hit Auro.e' But 8er-any ,enefits fro- an econo-ically healthy Auro.e% to
which it e:.orts roughly P0 .ercent of its .roducts' 7lready% auto-a+ers such as &ai-ler and Hol+swagen
are starting to worry a,out wea+ Auro.ean sales' 7 cru-,ling euro;one% therefore% ,oth threatens the "ery
e:istence of the -onetary union and -a+es the 8er-an econo-y dangerously de.endent on de-and fro-
e-erging -ar+ets' 8reater recognition of these "ulnera,ilities -- and of the ways in which the 8er-an
econo-y has ,enefited fro- the status 5uo -- should ,udge reluctant 8er-an .olicy-a+ers away fro-
austerity toward growth-oriented .olicies for the rest of Auro.e'