Lecture 9

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14 tayangan

Lecture 9

© All Rights Reserved

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The statistical methodology for comparing several means is called

analysis of variance, or ANOVA. We will consider two ANOVA

techniques:

One-way ANOVA:

- is used when there is only one way to classify the populations of

interest, e.g. to compare cure time for three different treatments.

Two-way ANOVA:

- is used when there is more than one way to classify the

populations.

One-way ANOVA

We draw an SRS from each population and use the data to test

Example 1: A magazine publisher wants to compare three different

layouts for a magazine that will be offered for sale at supermarket

checkout lines. She is interested in whether there is a layout that

better catches shoppers' attention and results in more sales. To

investigate, she randomly assigns each of 60 stores to one of three

layouts and records the number of magazines that are sold in a one-

week period.

Example 2: How do five bookstores in the same city differ in the

demographics of their customers? Are certain bookstores more

popular among teenagers? Do upper-income shoppers tend to go to

one store? A market researcher asks 50 customers of each store to

respond to a questionnaire. Two variables of interest are the

customer's age and income level.

What is the difference between these two examples?

Comparing Means

Question: Do all groups have the same population mean?

For example 1:

Let's look at the display of the sample means for example 1:

Is the observed difference in sample means statistically significant?

Or is it the result of chance variation? ANOVA answers these

questions.

Why ANOVA?

Recall: two-sample t statistic to compare the means of two

populations.

The ANOVA F-statistic is equal to

Numerator: measures the variation between the groups in terms of

the difference between their sample means

and

. It can be

large because of a large difference between

and

or the large

sample size.

Denominator: measures the within-group variation.

To assess whether several populations have the same mean, we

compare the variation among the means of the groups with the

variation within groups.

That's why this method is called analysis of variance.

Example:

ANOVA Model

Let's first look at the statistical model for a random sample of

observations from a single Normal population with mean and

standard deviation .

The model for one-way ANOVA is very similar. We take a

random sample from each of k different populations. The sample

size is

for the

population. Let

represent

observation

from the

population.

One-way ANOVA model:

For our example:

Estimates of Population Parameters

To estimate

group:

The residuals

means.

Important Note: The ANOVA model assumes that the population

standard deviations are all equal.

If they are not, try to use transformation. If it doesn't help, STOP!

Pooled Estimators of :

Suppose we have sample variances

from k

independent SRS's of sizes

common variance

Rule for examining standard deviations in ANOVA: If the largest

standard deviation is less than twice the smallest standard

deviation, we can use the methods based on the assumption of

equal standard deviations, and our results will be approximately

correct.

For our example:

Testing Hypothesis in one-way ANOVA

Comparison of several means is accomplished by using an F-

statistic to compare the variation among groups with the variation

within groups.

The hypotheses for one-way ANOVA:

The software output for our example is:

ANOVA Table

To understand the table, it is helpful to think in terms of our model:

The ANOVA table separates the variation in the data into two

parts: the part due to the fit and the remainder, which we call

residual.

mean,

.

In our example:

Degrees of Freedom

For our example:

F-Test

To test

statistic:

When

When

.

Note: the F-test is always one-sided because any differences

among the group means tend to make F large.

For ANOVA we also define the coefficient of determination as

For our example:

This means that 2.37% of the variation in SCI scores is explained

by membership in the groups. The other 97.63% of the variation is

due to worker-to-worker variation within each of three groups.

Assumptions and Conditions:

1. Independence Assumptions:

2. Equal Variance Assumption:

3. Normal Population Assumption:

Example:

Two-way ANOVA

In one-way ANOVA, we classify populations according to one

categorical variable, or factor. But when we are interested in the

effects of two factors, we use a two-way design which offers great

advantages over a one-way design.

Let's consider a few examples.

Example:

Design #1: A magazine publisher wants to compare three different

magazine layouts. To do this, she plans to randomly assign the

three design layouts equally among 60 supermarkets. The number

of magazines sold during a one-week period is the outcome

variable.

Now suppose a second experiment is planned for the following

week to compare four different covers for the magazine. A similar

experimental design will be used, with the four covers randomly

assigned among the same 60 supermarkets.

Here is a picture if the design of the first experiment with the

sample sizes:

And this represents the second experiment:

Total time: two weeks.

Let's now combine the two experiments into one.

Design #2: Suppose we use a two-way approach for the magazine

design problem. There are two factors, layout and cover. Since

layout has three levels and cover has four levels, this is a 3x4

design. This gives a total of 12 possible combinations of layout and

cover. With a total of 60 stores, we could assign each combination

of layout and cover to 5 stores. The number of magazines sold

during a one-week period is the outcome variable.

Here is a picture of the two-way design with the sample sizes:

Each combination of the factors in a two-way design corresponds

to a cell. The 3x4 ANOVA for the magazine experiment has 12

cells, each corresponding to a particular combination of layout and

cover.

This design gives us the same amount of information as the two

one-way designs. The difference is that we spend less time. So by

combining the two factors, we have increased our efficiency by

reducing the amount of data to be collected.

Example: Malaria is a serious health problem causing an estimated

2.7 million deaths per year, mostly in Africa. Some research

suggests that vitamin A can reduce episodes of malaria in young

children. Red palm oil is a good source of vitamin A and is really

available in Nigeria, a country where malaria accounts for about

30% of the deaths of young children. Can an increase in the

consumption of red palm oil reduce the occurrence and severity of

malaria in this region?

Target group: children who are 2-5 years of age

Supplement: either placebo, a low dose of red palm oil, or a high

dose of red palm oil.

Gender: boys and girls

Two-way ANOVA design: The factors are red palm oil with three

levels and gender with two levels. There are 3x2=6 cells in our

study. Suppose we recruit 75 boys and 75 girls. We will then

randomly assign 25 of each gender to each of the red palm oil

levels. The outcome variable will be the amount of an acute-phase

protein in the blood that measures the severity of infection.

Here is a table that summarizes the design:

Example: Osteoporosis is a disease primarily of the elderly. People

with osteoporosis have low bone mass and an increased risk of

bone fractures. Over 10 million people in the US, 1.4 million

Canadians, and many millions throughout the world have this

disease. Adequate calcium in the diet is necessary for strong bones,

but vitamin D is also needed for the body to efficiently use

calcium. High doses of calcium in the diet will not prevent

osteoporosis unless there is adequate vitamin D. Exposure of the

skin to the ultraviolet rays in sunlight enables our body to make

vitamin D. However, elderly people often avoid sunlight, and in

northern areas such as Canada, there is not sufficient ultraviolet

light to make vitamin D, particularly in the winter months.

We want: to see if calcium supplements will increase bone mass in

an elderly Canadian population.

We will use a 2x2 design for our study. The two factors are

calcium and vitamin D. The levels of each factor will be zero

(placebo) and an amount that is expected to be adequate,

800mg/day for calcium and 300 IU/day for vitamin D. Women

between the ages 70 and 80 will be recruited as subjects. Bone

mineral density (BMD) will be measured at the beginning of the

study, and supplements will be taken for one year. The chance in

BMD over the one-year period is the outcome variable. We expect

a dropout rate of 20% and we would like to have about 20 subjects

providing data in each group at the end of the study. We will

therefore recruit 100 subjects and randomly assign 25 to each

treatment combination.

Here is a table that summarizes the design with the sample sizes at

baseline:

Note: The effectiveness of the calcium supplement on BMD

depends on having adequate vitamin D. We call this an

interaction. In contrast, the average values for the calcium effect

and the vitamin D effect are represented as main effects.

Advantages of Two-way ANOVA:

1. It is more efficient to study two factors simultaneously rather

than separately.

2. We can reduce the residual variation in a model by including a

second factor that we think influences the response.

3. We can investigate interaction between factors.

Two-Way ANOVA Model

The fixed component reflects known observable influences on the

response variable and may be fitted.

The random component reflects all the unknown influences.

The standard hypotheses are:

: no interaction exists

It says that the increase (decrease) in the mean when changing

from one level of A (B) to another level of A (B) is the same

regardless of the level of B (A) present.

It says that the grand means at level 1, 2, 3,... of factor A

(averaging over levels of B) are all the same.

It says that the grand means at level 1, 2, 3,... of factor B

(averaging over levels of A) are all the same.

The model is often written as:

Example: Analysis of data for a 3x2 ANOVA with 5 observations

per cell gave the F statistics in the following table:

Effect F

A 1.53

B 3.87

AB 2.94

What can you conclude from the information given?

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