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Lecture 9

Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)



The statistical methodology for comparing several means is called
analysis of variance, or ANOVA. We will consider two ANOVA
techniques:

One-way ANOVA:
- is used when there is only one way to classify the populations of
interest, e.g. to compare cure time for three different treatments.

Two-way ANOVA:
- is used when there is more than one way to classify the
populations.

One-way ANOVA
We draw an SRS from each population and use the data to test

all means are equal.



Example 1: A magazine publisher wants to compare three different
layouts for a magazine that will be offered for sale at supermarket
checkout lines. She is interested in whether there is a layout that
better catches shoppers' attention and results in more sales. To
investigate, she randomly assigns each of 60 stores to one of three
layouts and records the number of magazines that are sold in a one-
week period.

Example 2: How do five bookstores in the same city differ in the
demographics of their customers? Are certain bookstores more
popular among teenagers? Do upper-income shoppers tend to go to
one store? A market researcher asks 50 customers of each store to
respond to a questionnaire. Two variables of interest are the
customer's age and income level.

What is the difference between these two examples?







Comparing Means
Question: Do all groups have the same population mean?
For example 1:





Let's look at the display of the sample means for example 1:

Is the observed difference in sample means statistically significant?
Or is it the result of chance variation? ANOVA answers these
questions.
Why ANOVA?
Recall: two-sample t statistic to compare the means of two
populations.





The ANOVA F-statistic is equal to

Numerator: measures the variation between the groups in terms of
the difference between their sample means

and

. It can be
large because of a large difference between

and

or the large
sample size.

Denominator: measures the within-group variation.

To assess whether several populations have the same mean, we
compare the variation among the means of the groups with the
variation within groups.
That's why this method is called analysis of variance.
Example:



ANOVA Model
Let's first look at the statistical model for a random sample of
observations from a single Normal population with mean and
standard deviation .












The model for one-way ANOVA is very similar. We take a
random sample from each of k different populations. The sample
size is

for the

population. Let

represent

observation
from the

population.

One-way ANOVA model:





For our example:










Estimates of Population Parameters
To estimate

we use the sample mean for the

group:



The residuals

reflect the variation about the sample


means.
Important Note: The ANOVA model assumes that the population
standard deviations are all equal.
If they are not, try to use transformation. If it doesn't help, STOP!

Pooled Estimators of :
Suppose we have sample variances

from k
independent SRS's of sizes

from populations with


common variance

. The pooled sample variance is given by







Rule for examining standard deviations in ANOVA: If the largest
standard deviation is less than twice the smallest standard
deviation, we can use the methods based on the assumption of
equal standard deviations, and our results will be approximately
correct.
For our example:












Testing Hypothesis in one-way ANOVA
Comparison of several means is accomplished by using an F-
statistic to compare the variation among groups with the variation
within groups.
The hypotheses for one-way ANOVA:



The software output for our example is:




ANOVA Table
To understand the table, it is helpful to think in terms of our model:


The ANOVA table separates the variation in the data into two
parts: the part due to the fit and the remainder, which we call
residual.









measures the variation of the data around the overall mean,

measures the variation of the group means around overall


mean,

measures variation of the observation around its group mean,

.

In our example:









Degrees of Freedom







For our example:





F-Test
To test

: no difference among the group means, calculate the F


statistic:



When

is true, the F-statistic has ( ) distribution.


When

is true, the F-statistic tends to be large, and we reject

.


Note: the F-test is always one-sided because any differences
among the group means tend to make F large.
For ANOVA we also define the coefficient of determination as


For our example:




This means that 2.37% of the variation in SCI scores is explained
by membership in the groups. The other 97.63% of the variation is
due to worker-to-worker variation within each of three groups.

Assumptions and Conditions:

1. Independence Assumptions:




2. Equal Variance Assumption:



3. Normal Population Assumption:




Example:










Two-way ANOVA
In one-way ANOVA, we classify populations according to one
categorical variable, or factor. But when we are interested in the
effects of two factors, we use a two-way design which offers great
advantages over a one-way design.
Let's consider a few examples.
Example:
Design #1: A magazine publisher wants to compare three different
magazine layouts. To do this, she plans to randomly assign the
three design layouts equally among 60 supermarkets. The number
of magazines sold during a one-week period is the outcome
variable.
Now suppose a second experiment is planned for the following
week to compare four different covers for the magazine. A similar
experimental design will be used, with the four covers randomly
assigned among the same 60 supermarkets.
Here is a picture if the design of the first experiment with the
sample sizes:

And this represents the second experiment:


Total time: two weeks.
Let's now combine the two experiments into one.
Design #2: Suppose we use a two-way approach for the magazine
design problem. There are two factors, layout and cover. Since
layout has three levels and cover has four levels, this is a 3x4
design. This gives a total of 12 possible combinations of layout and
cover. With a total of 60 stores, we could assign each combination
of layout and cover to 5 stores. The number of magazines sold
during a one-week period is the outcome variable.




Here is a picture of the two-way design with the sample sizes:

Each combination of the factors in a two-way design corresponds
to a cell. The 3x4 ANOVA for the magazine experiment has 12
cells, each corresponding to a particular combination of layout and
cover.
This design gives us the same amount of information as the two
one-way designs. The difference is that we spend less time. So by
combining the two factors, we have increased our efficiency by
reducing the amount of data to be collected.





Example: Malaria is a serious health problem causing an estimated
2.7 million deaths per year, mostly in Africa. Some research
suggests that vitamin A can reduce episodes of malaria in young
children. Red palm oil is a good source of vitamin A and is really
available in Nigeria, a country where malaria accounts for about
30% of the deaths of young children. Can an increase in the
consumption of red palm oil reduce the occurrence and severity of
malaria in this region?

Target group: children who are 2-5 years of age

Supplement: either placebo, a low dose of red palm oil, or a high
dose of red palm oil.

Gender: boys and girls

Two-way ANOVA design: The factors are red palm oil with three
levels and gender with two levels. There are 3x2=6 cells in our
study. Suppose we recruit 75 boys and 75 girls. We will then
randomly assign 25 of each gender to each of the red palm oil
levels. The outcome variable will be the amount of an acute-phase
protein in the blood that measures the severity of infection.

Here is a table that summarizes the design:












Example: Osteoporosis is a disease primarily of the elderly. People
with osteoporosis have low bone mass and an increased risk of
bone fractures. Over 10 million people in the US, 1.4 million
Canadians, and many millions throughout the world have this
disease. Adequate calcium in the diet is necessary for strong bones,
but vitamin D is also needed for the body to efficiently use
calcium. High doses of calcium in the diet will not prevent
osteoporosis unless there is adequate vitamin D. Exposure of the
skin to the ultraviolet rays in sunlight enables our body to make
vitamin D. However, elderly people often avoid sunlight, and in
northern areas such as Canada, there is not sufficient ultraviolet
light to make vitamin D, particularly in the winter months.

We want: to see if calcium supplements will increase bone mass in
an elderly Canadian population.

We will use a 2x2 design for our study. The two factors are
calcium and vitamin D. The levels of each factor will be zero
(placebo) and an amount that is expected to be adequate,
800mg/day for calcium and 300 IU/day for vitamin D. Women
between the ages 70 and 80 will be recruited as subjects. Bone
mineral density (BMD) will be measured at the beginning of the
study, and supplements will be taken for one year. The chance in
BMD over the one-year period is the outcome variable. We expect
a dropout rate of 20% and we would like to have about 20 subjects
providing data in each group at the end of the study. We will
therefore recruit 100 subjects and randomly assign 25 to each
treatment combination.
Here is a table that summarizes the design with the sample sizes at
baseline:


Note: The effectiveness of the calcium supplement on BMD
depends on having adequate vitamin D. We call this an
interaction. In contrast, the average values for the calcium effect
and the vitamin D effect are represented as main effects.





Advantages of Two-way ANOVA:

1. It is more efficient to study two factors simultaneously rather
than separately.
2. We can reduce the residual variation in a model by including a
second factor that we think influences the response.
3. We can investigate interaction between factors.

Two-Way ANOVA Model




The fixed component reflects known observable influences on the
response variable and may be fitted.
The random component reflects all the unknown influences.

























The standard hypotheses are:

: no interaction exists

It says that the increase (decrease) in the mean when changing
from one level of A (B) to another level of A (B) is the same
regardless of the level of B (A) present.

: there is no main effect of factor A



It says that the grand means at level 1, 2, 3,... of factor A
(averaging over levels of B) are all the same.

: there is no main effect of factor B



It says that the grand means at level 1, 2, 3,... of factor B
(averaging over levels of A) are all the same.




The model is often written as:


































Example: Analysis of data for a 3x2 ANOVA with 5 observations
per cell gave the F statistics in the following table:
Effect F
A 1.53
B 3.87
AB 2.94

What can you conclude from the information given?